2026 AFC Betting Preview | Part 1

A.J. Brown was added to the Patriots offense as a motivated player; described as a key addition that improves the Patriots' offensive weapons alongside Romeo Dobbs. The source believes the Patriots upgraded their offense significantly with these additions.

Nix's early-down performance (first and second down) ranks 30th of 34 quarterbacks in success rate and 28th of 34 in completion percentage over expected since entering the NFL, despite being only 24th in average depth of target; these metrics suggest room for improvement with Waddle's addition to the offense.

Bowers should be healthy this season after being shut down most of last year due to injury; he is a key target for the Raiders offense and his availability will be critical to the offense's success, especially given the weak wide receiver room.

Bowers is mentioned as part of 13 personnel packages the Raiders may deploy, but the speaker emphasizes the overall receiving core is weak and would be a major liability if the offensive line suffers injuries.

Cam Ward is expected to throw an interception in week one against the Jets. The source jokingly suggests this is almost a certainty given the Jets' historically bad interception luck (zero interceptions in 2024, the first team in NFL history to achieve this).

Sutton was previously unreliable in the Broncos passing game, but the addition of Waddle should help open up the offense and provide more consistent receiving options; Sutton's role may improve with better offensive weapons.

Moore, 29 years old and declining, is brought in by the Bills with hopes that a change of scenery with Josh Allen can rejuvenate his career and help unlock an offense that lacked explosiveness; the speaker is cautiously optimistic about his potential impact.

Waller is mentioned as part of the Raiders' receiving core in the context of 13 personnel packages, but the speaker notes the overall receiving core is "terrible" and would be a major weakness if injuries strike the offensive line.

Drake May led the league in completion percentage with the highest average depth of target; ranked number one in EPA per dropback; improved from 30th in tight coverage throws to second; led the league in explosive play rate. Despite a horrendous playoff performance partly due to offensive line issues, May had one of the best completion percentage over expectations in NFL history in the regular season.

Drake May was horrendous in the playoffs; part of the issue was the offensive line, but it showed that his regular-season performance doesn't necessarily translate in the postseason when teams make coverage adjustments. This raises questions about whether his elite regular-season metrics will hold up under playoff pressure.

Drake May's rushing touchdown total is set at 3.5 for the regular season, which the source believes is too low. Even with the addition of A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs, the source expects May to exceed this projection.

The speaker expects Minshew to start for the Raiders but not last long; they project he will struggle for a few weeks before being replaced by Mendoza, citing concerns about fit and performance.

Garrett Wilson didn't catch a pass after week six but still led the Jets in receiving yards last season. The source expects Wilson to be healthy this year and benefit from Geno Smith's arm talent, suggesting his receiving props might be undervalued.

Geno Smith was brought in as the Jets' quarterback after a terrible year with the Raiders. The hope is that he gets more protection this year with the Jets' improved offensive line, which stayed healthy last year.

Meyers' role in the Raiders offense remains limited given the wide receiver room is still weak; the team will likely emphasize multiple tight ends and heavy personnel in the Kubiak offense rather than relying heavily on outside receivers.

Waddle is a massive addition to the Broncos offense; Denver was 25th in drop-back success rate last year, and Waddle will help open up the intermediate and over-the-middle passing game, addressing a key weakness. The addition is significant because the Broncos couldn't previously trust receivers like Sutton in the passing game.

Allen has been the number one quarterback statistically in the playoffs since 2020; the Bills' playoff losses have not been due to Allen's performance but rather defensive breakdowns allowing 33, 32, 27, 27, 42, and 38 points—never fewer than 27. The new aggressive defensive scheme under Jim Leonard is designed to address this weakness.

Jacobs should benefit significantly from the Raiders' offensive line upgrades and new Kubiak-style run-heavy offense; the team averaged only half a yard before contact last year due to offensive line dysfunction, but with Tyler Linderbaum and Colton Miller upgrades, the run game should improve dramatically.

Herbert is expected to return to the Chargers after missing most of last year; getting him back is a major positive for the offense alongside the addition of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator.

Herbert should have opportunity to exceed passing yard projections given the aging Chargers defense and struggling offensive line; available at 3,500+ or 3,600+ passing yards, which represents value if he stays healthy and plays all games.

Cousins shined under Kubiak in 2021, providing familiarity and comfort in the Raiders' new Shanahan-style offense; he will start the season for Las Vegas before potentially being replaced by Mendoza later.

Malik Willis was brought in as the Dolphins' quarterback in a complete roster overhaul under new head coach Jeff Halfley and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. The source expresses uncertainty about Willis's fit and the overall Dolphins roster construction.

Mahomes is expected to be healthy and available for week one, though he's recovering from an injury that may impact his mobility early in the season; the team is assuming he'll play the majority of games this year, if not all of them.

Rice's role and usage in the Chargers offense remains uncertain given the offensive line struggles and overall offensive dysfunction; the team's focus will be on establishing the run game and play action rather than heavy passing to receivers.

Rice is flagged with concerns about staying healthy and staying out of jail; there are questions about his availability and reliability for the Chiefs offense.

Romeo Dobbs was brought in as a nice addition to the Patriots offense that people don't give enough credit to but can be really helpful. The source believes Dobbs can meaningfully contribute to the Patriots' offensive improvement.

Kelce is described as bordering on completely useless; he had 76 receptions last year over 17 games, and at an under of 66.5 receptions, the projection is only four receptions over 17 games, which could get closer to five or six if he misses games due to injury. The expectation is that a higher run split with Kenneth Walker will reduce targets across the board, including for Kelce.

Johnson is being brought in to play nickel for the Raiders, addressing a major defensive weakness; the team had no reliable nickel last year, with Greedy Williams even playing the position late in the season.

Worthy is flagged with a health concern; there's a question about whether he can stay healthy this season.