Rocket Classic Betting Preview | 2026
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49 min
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Jul 28, 2026
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Tue, July 28, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
0:05I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
0:11I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
0:19I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
0:23Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:28I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
0:31You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
0:35Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
0:40You're not hired just to fill time and space.
0:43You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:51Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
0:58Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
1:02We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the
1:08site of a social experiment and fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
1:15Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:19You hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
1:22We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
1:25The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
1:29I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
1:34I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
1:39Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
1:43And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
1:46Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:52The Action Network Podcast. Better than most. Better than most.
1:55Better than most. Winner, winner, chicken dinner! Four! You got real talent.
1:58We're going to concentrate on golf. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.
2:02This is our Rocket Classic preview on the PGA Tour.
2:05We're headed to the Detroit Golf Club, which just underwent a $16.1 million restoration that reshaped the North Course into a 7,300-yard
2:11par 70 rather than the previous par 72. It's the Penn Ultimate Events of this regular season, with only the Wyndham Championship left before the FedEx Cup playoffs.
2:19That cutoff, by the way, is just for the top 70.
2:23So some people on the cut line there. The field here, though, is notoriously strong, and it is holding up in that way.
2:29This year, we're featuring Cam Young, Wyndham Clark, Chris Goddard up as Andrew Shoffley.
2:34Young will be looking to bounce back after a heartbreaking runner-up finish at the Open Championship, where he lost by a single shot.
2:40Defending champion Aldrich Pott-Gieter won last year's marathon. Five-hole playoff over Max Grazerman returns to defend his PGA title here.
2:46And I think what's interesting is with the redesigned layout, it's untested against competition.
2:51So this week may hinge less on past Detroit course form and more on which players adapt faster to the new demands.
2:57And I think I want to start there, Spencer, in terms of what you're seeing and how it's kind of reshaped your model and expectations coming into Thursday.
3:05Yeah, it's really difficult, I think, when you try to break down this course.
3:09The par 72 to par 70 switch, I wrote about this yesterday on X.
3:14It's like par is an arbitrary number that is used.
3:17You could change the par total, and it wouldn't change the actual strokes gain metrics.
3:21Players are still going to produce the way that they're going to.
3:25And the only difference is when you move it one way or the other, you're going to get a winning score that
3:31goes from, we'll call it inside of the 20s.
3:34And if you want to say par is 10, all of a sudden you're going to go one way.
3:39And if you want to say par is 200, you're going to go the other direction.
3:44But for this course in particular and what we saw, like restoration architect Tyler Ray really did leave no stone unturned in the alteration of this course.
3:52You're going to get new green complexes. You're going to get repositioned bunkers.
3:56I think that might be the caveat to this.
3:59That's the most interesting discussion to have. Yardages are changed between holes.
4:02What really ends up happening? Like, yeah, you're going to get some shorter par fours that enter the mix.
4:08You're going to get par fives that get turned into long par fours that are over 500 yards now.
4:13And that alters the scorecard at the end of the day.
4:17But the repositioning of the bunkers, I think, is where I want to start for this discussion, because we've always viewed Detroit
4:23Golf Club as this bomb and gouge facility to where there's limited rough.
4:27There's the ability to kind of just hit it wherever you want.
4:31You think of a golfer like Potguider who ended up winning last year, and that's his recipe for success.
4:36It's hit it long, kind of sprayed all over the place, and be able to use that distance to an advantage.
4:42What Ryze decided to do in this situation with the way that he built this course is he put bunkers in spots
4:49to where players are more likely to be able to drive it to.
4:53So in today's modern day of golf, we've positioned these bunkers in a way to where you're not going to necessarily be
4:59able to overhit or outdrive these bunkers. And these bunkers are meant to come into play now.
5:04So I didn't have a massive alteration in my model in a lot of areas.
5:09I think for me, one of the main spots where I changed is I'm always reprojecting the strokes gain metrics to kind
5:15of try to fit the course at hand. So I didn't change the actual projection when it comes to what percentage of
5:22the dispersion of scoring is going to come in a particular area.
5:25That's something that we will find. I mean, I guess this is the last year of this course right now.
5:31But I mean, like, in theory, if this course was to play 10 more years, this is something that you would find
5:38more about over the next 10 years. But if you just take this particular venue, I think when you try to big
5:44brain situations, you sometimes run into some really awkward spots to where you're when you're right.
5:49Yeah, that's great. But when you're wrong, you build the wrong board to it.
5:53So like for me off the tee, I kept the dispersion of scoring the same in expected off the tee performance.
5:59The one difference of what I ended up producing on it is I look for more total driving than just pure distance.
6:06I look for guys that are going to be able to find fairways with distance included rather than guys that can just hit it the furthest.
6:14And for me, I'm hoping that's where my model can become different enough to where like there is an advantage to still be found.
6:21But, you know, look, I mean, Kyle and I talk about this every single week on shows.
6:26It's like the more data we have with us being very data heavy in our approach, the better it's going to always be.
6:33And when you remove that ability to find what this course actually is at its score and more so in this discussion,
6:39what has the course been changed into? There's going to be some overarching marks that are difficult to discuss.
6:45So I kind of tried to look at past iterations of it and merge stats into what I think they will be
6:51from a very, very simplistic sense rather than this complex return that's going to make it difficult to try to either one
6:58explain on a show or to model and kind of just get wrong.
7:02Kyle, in addition to the course, when you look at the weather, you have kind of a bookended situation on Thursday and Sunday.
7:08You're going to get winds in the 12 to 15 mile per hour range and then in between on Friday and Saturday,
7:15calmer winds, perhaps a little bit of rain to soften up those greens.
7:19How does that all kind of fold into your expectations for what we're going to see?
7:23And does anything pop off, whether it's the course, the weather conditions, the field where you're seeing maybe somebody who historically wouldn't
7:30have a chance to win a tournament like this, that maybe all of a sudden they're cracking your top 20 or a top 10.
7:37And then you're starting to line up some of those longer shots and more value on your card.
7:42Yeah, I certainly think the rain could come into play.
7:45Like you mentioned, soften up these greens. We've actually seen that happen quite a few times at this course.
7:51I think I can remember pretty vividly because I've been to this event a few times just about 25 minutes away from me.
7:58So even when the year that Ricky Fowler won in that playoff, there was some rain that morning.
8:03I remember the year that Nate Lashley won. I was on site for that one.
8:08There was some rain there. So I haven't had actually any good luck going to this tournament and not getting rain.
8:14So we've seen that quite a few times at this event.
8:17But that is something that will certainly soften up these greens.
8:20I think from a course reconstruction standpoint, I think it always catches people's eyes when we see the par number change.
8:26Like Spencer mentioned from 72 to 70. We get some renovation and tweaks at times throughout the year at plenty of courses.
8:33But when you see a big change from 72 down to a 70, that's going to be something that catches people's eyes a little bit more.
8:41Personally, I'm with Spence. I think that the changing of the par doesn't necessarily change the way that I'm grading the course.
8:47But I just think that the bunkers and the green reconstructions, those are the two big points in terms of if we're
8:54going to change anything within our model. I did up the driving accuracy component a little bit compared to last year.
9:00I mean, last year is basically non-existent. And we saw Potgeater do exactly what kind of we thought players at this course
9:06could do, just hit it wherever and hit it as far as possible.
9:10And it would typically be just fine. I think that could change a little bit here.
9:15I still think that when I ran my model and I tried to sort of project where the winning score could be,
9:22my model was suggesting anywhere from 11 to 14 under.
9:25I think that's probably too aggressive. I don't think it'll get down that far.
9:29I did see some simulations where, you know, in situations where maybe wind or weather is helping scoring conditions, 17 or 18 under.
9:35I think 17, 18 under. I think that's probably where the score will likely come into play.
9:40I don't think it's going to be this massive change to where it's now going to be, you know, pushing down to the 11 under range.
9:48But I do think that it is something worth noting.
9:51I think it's always good to hear, you know, Spencer mentioned he upped his interest in total driving here.
9:57For me, the strongest input and off the tee play for me is good drive percentage.
10:02So we're kind of right in line there. I think it's going to be, you know, I do think that the course
10:08now is going to play into a spot where the better players are going to funnel up to the top of the leaderboard a little bit more.
10:16I do think that we have seen some big names, some good players win here.
10:20Obviously, Bryson won here back in 2020. Tony Finau's won this event.
10:24Ricky Fowler during his spurt where he was, you know, really coming back won this event.
10:29So there have been some big names that have won this one, but, you know, Potgeater was a great fit for the
10:35course, but not necessarily a top end player. I mentioned the name Nate Lashley.
10:39Cam Davis, who is essentially at the bottom of my model every single week now, has won this event twice.
10:45So there's certainly some names where you had some volatility coming to the scorecard.
10:49This year, I think that with the changes, we're still going to have that to an extent.
10:54I think it might be suppressed a little bit.
10:57But overall, I think it'll still play as a fairly easy course compared to, you know, PGA Tour average.
11:03And for me, the par changing doesn't necessarily change the way I'm grading the course because for me, both of those par fives were pretty reachable.
11:10Well, not for me as a player, but for me, the way I'm grading the model, two reachable par fives that a
11:17lot of guys are playing as par fours anyway.
11:20So not a ton of changes there from the par aspect.
11:23But yes, the bunkers and even the greens are allowing me to incorporate a little bit more nuance to some of these
11:29grades in my model throughout the week. All right, let's get into our first official play from the pod.
11:35And Spencer's head to head Nikolai Hoigard minus 110 over Harris English.
11:39And throughout this season, Spence, like you've dropped down some breadcrumbs.
11:42Usually I can follow along. I'll do my own research, find a stat that pops.
11:46And it makes sense to me. I'm just going to be honest.
11:50When I was looking at this, nothing obviously popped off the page, whether it was course history, recent form.
11:55So why did this matchup rise to the top of your head to head card?
12:00It's funny, Michael, that you word it like that.
12:03Like one of the things I wrote when I gave this play on Monday was this is one of the smaller edges that I've seen the entire year.
12:11A lot of that comes down to you have two golfers in Hoigard in English that over the last two months or
12:17so have been moving in the wrong direction. And Hoigard's been volatile with his performances.
12:22You do see a couple of high-end finishes in English in particular.
12:25I mean, I had English exposure at the Open Championship.
12:28He missed the cut there. I've had him a couple of other times where he's missed the cut too.
12:34Maybe more of a DFS answer than anything else.
12:37But I think for me, when I was looking at the metrics and trying to figure this out, like Hoigard has this
12:43really boom or bust output in the profile. And that's usually not what you want to see for a matchup.
12:49You need to beat one player. I'm not trying to beat 143 other golfers in this tournament on that particular bet.
12:55We can talk about where I did take Hoigard to try to beat 143 golfers later.
13:00But the high-end metrics for Hoigard are really nice within my sheet.
13:04He's the number one player for me when I look at expected driving at this course and I merge it in with short iron proximity.
13:11He's the number three player in ball striking. And he's number five for me in weighted strokes gain total.
13:17The recent metrics over the last 24 rounds would push in the wrong direction.
13:2161st out of 144 players. When you take all of those same weighted strokes gain total statistics and just look at what he's done recently.
13:28So you can kind of see where that bad form has come into play for him.
13:33But I think the floor for Harris English, and I'm not saying he's going to miss the cut.
13:38I actually think Harris is going to make the cut here.
13:41And that's what makes this bet so difficult. But the iron play does have some concerns when you dive into the metrics.
13:48Like 114th in my model in weighted proximity. That includes being outside of the top 90 in proximity from 200 plus yards.
13:54This is where I could be right or wrong with this.
13:58And this may be where the problem comes into play in this particular wager.
14:02Because I do want to give a counterpoint to it very quickly.
14:05If you look historically at what Detroit Golf Club has been, it's been a venue that approach shots from within 100 yards
14:12see an uptick that is higher than almost any venue on tour.
14:15And I'm thinking with some of this reconstruction that has happened, you're not going to necessarily lose a lot of those shots
14:22from within 100 yards because you do get some shorter par 4s that are going to come into play, which I think English can take advantage of.
14:30But you are going to add in a few spots some longer iron proximity than you would normally get at this venue.
14:37And like the one portion of my model where English is popping would be that very short iron proximity that he brings to the mix.
14:44If you remove even one or two shots that ends up transpiring over the week, I think it makes the overall iron play worse.
14:51Where if you take somebody like Hoygard, Nikolai that is for this bet, the proximity within 100 yards is within the top 40 of my model.
14:59And then he gets better as you move him from 200 plus yards.
15:03He moves inside of the top 15 of that area.
15:06So at the end of the day for me, Michael, like this is a bet that I wanted to have exposure to Hoygard.
15:12I'm trying to figure out different ways to back him.
15:15And that's a very different answer than what you normally hear from me on this show of where I start.
15:21I want to fade this golfer. And it's not necessarily that I want to fade Harris English.
15:26I'm trying to get extra exposure on Hoygard because the upside metrics in my model are telling me a picture to where,
15:33yes, there's volatility, but I'm hoping that with that volatility comes that upside to where in a matchup like this, he's undervalued in the market.
15:40One quick question for both of you guys. Three of the last five classics here have ended in a playoff.
15:46Another one was a one stroke lead. You can get seven to two on this to go to a playoff in general.
15:53And then you start to see some of the big payoffs, a three player playoff, 12 to one, a four players or
15:59more, which was last year's situation, 66 to one.
16:02Any interests on an exotic market like that? Maybe.
16:04I mean, it brings back bad memories for me.
16:07I was on the wrong end of the playoffs.
16:10And I believe both of those two. I had Grazerman last year.
16:13He missed every putt to try to win that golf tournament.
16:17I was in the middle of trying to buy a home.
16:20And I was doing my final walkthrough through the home.
16:23And I had no connection to where I was at in the area.
16:27It's this new build in Las Vegas. And I was trying to refresh this thing over and over again.
16:32And every single time I would be able to get an update, it would pop up that Grazerman had a putt to win it from nine feet.
16:40Wouldn't be able to get an update for another 15 minutes.
16:44And all of a sudden the playoff has continued.
16:46And it was one of the more frustrating rounds of golf that I'd ever bet on, not even seeing how the putts had missed.
16:53And then just seeing that we have continued the golf and Grazerman wasn't able to make anything.
16:58But yeah, I kind of like that take here.
17:01I think this is a leaderboard that can get jumbled together.
17:04And it even goes maybe more into the discussion of that question that you've asked in the past.
17:10Like, I know we talked about this at, I believe it was the Open, the last time we kind of had this discussion of it.
17:17And like, for me here, this is a leaderboard that can get jumbled together.
17:21And as Kyle talked about, I don't know what I think the winning score will be.
17:26I kind of probably put it in the 14 under range.
17:29If you take last year where it's 22 under, you take eight birdie a bull par fives there.
17:34And, you know, not that everybody's going to birdie every single one of those, but now you turn them into long par fours.
17:41I think it's reasonable to think 13, 14, 15, 16, somewhere in that range is probably what it ends up being.
17:47But that typically kind of jumbles leaderboards together when you see that.
17:51So I don't, I kind of like that look.
17:54I think it's an interesting take there. You've heard me say before, we've got market movers here on the Action Network podcast,
18:00and you want to get their bets and analysis right away.
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18:11Plus, you'll get access to all of our top projections across whatever sport you're betting on this summer.
18:17That's the PGA, Major League Baseball, the WNBA, and college football and the NFL are right around the corner.
18:22So now is a great time to jump in.
18:25Get $20 off an annual subscription with the promo code POD20.
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18:32Go to actionnetwork.com slash pro to get in on the software so you can be the smartest, better you can be.
18:38On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
18:43I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
18:49I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
18:57I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
19:01Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us.
19:07Not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is
19:14and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind, or
19:20wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your
19:27first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
19:33I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
19:36If you know me, you know I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
19:41So this podcast lets us uncover those things together through meaningful conversations with fascinating people.
19:46Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
19:51You're not hired just to fill time and space.
19:54You're hired to fill the space with you. You have something in your guts.
19:58You go with it. And Shawn Johnson recalled the moment she realized her now husband, Andrew, was the one.
20:03He was just so unapologetically himself and knew nothing of Hollywood.
20:07He hadn't been on a plane before without his family.
20:10It was so pure. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
20:16Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
20:19But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
20:22What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
20:28Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
20:32The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
20:36But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
20:42Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
20:49God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
20:52Do not use my hard work to sell your bulls**t.
20:55They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
20:57Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
21:03Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
21:07Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
21:12Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook on the Big Money Players Network.
21:18Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, a.k.a.
21:23The Biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
21:28Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
21:34We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman.
21:37Not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this?
21:40How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script?
21:44What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird?
21:50Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show.
21:55I would never expect. Let go of that. I have.
21:58I would never set expectations for something like that to happen.
22:01It seems like you did. If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it.
22:06I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine.
22:09Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you.
22:15Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I was like, is that weed? Nope.
22:18It's fragile masculinity. Mm-hmm. Yep. Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is.
22:26You know what I mean? Like, they're like, oh, what's a state?
22:30Everyone's so dumb except for you. And fake. Right.
22:32Fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life.
22:36I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
22:42Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on
22:49every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
22:56Did you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
22:59We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
23:02The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
23:06I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what, are you going to be singing today?
23:11I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
23:15Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
23:19And I guess I can share that, uh, no way.
23:22Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
23:28All right, time to talk a little placement wagers.
23:31Spencer, you're going back to the well in terms of a player to make the cut, just about an even money.
23:37Chandler Phillips, minus 105. His ball-striking profile doesn't necessarily scream that he's going to be playing this weekend, but his putter can catch fire.
23:44And when you kind of, you know, blend that a bit with how accurate he's been off the tee, are you counting
23:51on the flat stick to come alive, or do you think there's just a chance that he's going to avoid putting the ball in harm's way?
23:58Some of those bogeys and double bogeys that could derail around.
24:02Talk me through and walk me through why you think he'll be playing on Saturday.
24:06Counting on the flat stick, I mean, I feel like Kyle and I talk about this a lot as something that is a dangerous game to play.
24:14That's not something that I necessarily want to incorporate into my model.
24:18The statistical profile for him has red flags. One of them would be the ball striking that you talked about, 91st in
24:24my model and ball striking, 102nd when you take that driving plus long slash short iron proximity, you merge those two things together.
24:31It's not perfect, but there are a lot of trending marks for him that kind of possess a golfer that has higher
24:37end safety than what you would expect from a name recognition.
24:41Like if you look at what he's done recently, three straight top 15 finishes.
24:45And a lot of times when you have three straight top 15 finishes, it's, you're going to get an enhanced market that's
24:51going to push against a player to be able to be bet.
24:55So like, I'll give you an example on that.
24:58When Chandler Phillips opened at an unnamed book out there on Monday to make the cut, he opened at minus 165.
25:04I think that number might even still be up there at minus 165.
25:08And Phillips was Phillips and Chatfield. I had talked about Chatfield last week.
25:11I mean, Chatfield at plus 110 is another name to consider going back to.
25:16There are certain golfers of that pedigree where I think the market is very slow to react on them because the long-term
25:22history from whatever data sample size that we have for them express these golfers to be volatile names that miss a lot
25:29of cuts and aren't necessarily the safe commodities where the recent form is telling a much different picture of the three straight
25:35top 15s for Phillips or Chatfield shooting 16 straight rounds of par or better.
25:39And I just thought that the market was slow to move in those spots where we're getting a much lower price on
25:46the board than I expected to get. The Donald Ross history looks really good for Phillips.
25:51That stems into even the course history that we have seen from him 13th last year, 67th in 2024.
25:56But the key to that is a 67th is still a made cut.
26:00So it doesn't necessarily overly hurt that made cut number that I had for him.
26:04He was the best value on my board. And that's kind of the way I've been playing it every single week is
26:11find the best value on the board. Look where they are in the made cut market.
26:16And it's been one of the better areas of success.
26:19I feel like my model has been able to find recently last week with Chatfield ended up top 20 in the tournament and making the cut.
26:26I think the upside for Phillips here is maybe capped, maybe more capped than some people would think based off of these recent finishes.
26:33But I like the safety numbers and I'm going to trust those in my metrics.
26:38All right. A pair of golfers here in your placement wager, Bucket, Kyle, Jackson Sober and Zach Blair.
26:43Let's talk with Sober first. His iron play has been legitimately elite for top 25 finishes since May, including three top 10s.
26:50Now missing the cut at the 3M Open probably is only lengthened his odds here.
26:54But which window are you looking for? Are you kind of sprinkling across top 10, top 20, top 30?
27:00Yeah, I'll definitely do some sprinkling here. I think the primary placement bet that I show value on the most for Sober
27:06is top 20, right around plus 340, plus 350.
27:09He's a guy who I like quite a bit.
27:12I'm actually seeing a plus 380 out there now.
27:14So that's a number that I certainly like a good deal.
27:18He's someone that I liked back at the John Deere Classic and we kind of saw the upside that he has here.
27:24When I'm looking at the way that he sort of profiles in my model, he reminds me a lot of Davis Thompson
27:31where you see a lot of the strong ball striking stuff and then the short game, the putting, that can sort of go awry at times.
27:38But those are guys who, I mean, I think it's pretty clear Spencer and I have talked about it a handful of
27:45times, probably each show over the past couple of months where those are guys I like to target.
27:50I like to target the guys who are going to consistently put themselves in spots to make putts.
27:55And hopefully the putter works for them. Last time out at the 3M Open didn't work for him, but we have seen
28:02at times where he's going to have those spike weeks.
28:05For me this week, he grades out eighth in terms of a ceiling profile.
28:09So, you know, this is not necessarily a top end tournament, but we actually have a lot of guys showing up this one.
28:16We've got Wyndham Clark, Goddrup, Koivins here, Cam Young, Henley, Cantlay, Xander Schaafle.
28:20So a lot of big names. So for him to be inside the top 10 of really any metric, especially a ceiling
28:26metric, that's an impressive grade for me. He ranks as the 18th player in this field for me.
28:32So to get this one at almost four to one for a top 20 certainly, you know, implies some pretty strong value there.
28:38So he's someone that I'm going to be interested in and looking at across the matchup markets and stuff like that.
28:45And I'll probably even take a gander at an outright bet, but I have a couple of really long, a really, a
28:51couple of long shots that I really like this week.
28:54So I'll have to see if he can squeeze his way onto the card there.
28:59But yeah, overall, this is someone that I like quite a bit in terms of fit for this course.
29:04He's 16th in good drive percentage. When you look at his last 24 rounds profile, he's in the top 45 in every category outside of putting.
29:1220th in total strokes gained. 15th in tee to green play.
29:15Top 30 in terms of strokes gained on approach.
29:18And again, not necessarily an elite field, but it's certainly not one of those horrible fields that we've gotten at this event
29:24at times and that we will get at events in the future, especially, you know, in the fall and stuff like that.
29:31So it's certainly not a terribly weak event. So to be in on the top 40 and cross pretty much every strokes
29:37game category other than putting is certainly a check mark there for sober.
29:41So he's someone I like quite a bit in the top 20 mark this week.
29:46The second one on your card, as I mentioned, Zach Blair, he's playing on conditional status and splitting his time between the
29:52tours and seven PGA starts this year. He's made just four cuts, but he does have a best finish of tied for
29:59eighth of the Puerto Rico open in March. He's currently 23rd on the corn fairy points list, kind of right on the fringe of full status.
30:06What do we need to know about his game and the overall pricing that drew you to a placement wager on him?
30:13Yeah, so he's a little bit of the opposite of the profile I just mentioned there with sober.
30:18He is someone who gets the job done on the putting greens quite a bit.
30:23He's 10th in terms of strokes game putting over the last 24 rounds, but he can certainly make up for things in other ways as well.
30:30He's someone I think benefits these potential from this potential reconstruction of this course where, you know, these bunkers are going to
30:37maybe bring into, you know, come into play a little bit more with some of these just bomb and gouge players.
30:43He's outside the top 100 and off the tee play, but he's 16th in strokes game approach over the last 24 rounds.
30:50And he's fifth in strokes game over his last 50 rounds in this field.
30:54So the approach play combined with the putting, I mean, at a course like this, in an event like this, you need
31:00to give yourself opportunities and make putts. He's not necessarily going to help himself with off the tee play, I don't think,
31:07but in terms of approach play, he's shown some long iron abilities as well with some of these longer holes or these par fives turning into par fours.
31:15I do think long iron play could be essential here.
31:18He's shown some positives there and he's obviously shown the hot hand, right?
31:22T13 at the 3M open, T8 at the Isco, T9 at the John Deere Classic.
31:26Those are his last three stars. You mentioned his upside finish there at the Puerto Rico open.
31:31So I do think a lot of things like this are falling into place here.
31:36And even despite this bad strokes game off the tee play, which again, we all love the strokes game categories, but there's
31:42a reason why we're doing more modeling outside of them to try to take away from some of the noise and try
31:49to add more nuance and add more edge to the stuff that we're actually modeling.
31:53And again, especially for a guy where Zach, but we don't have a massive amounts of data.
31:58We have enough to where I can feel pretty comfortable about what we're seeing on his resume.
32:03But for me, when you're looking at things that he's putting on paper, the stroke scene number does not look too great,
32:10but fourth and good drive percentage thanks to being seventh in accuracy.
32:13And again, with the course trying to play a little bit harder off the tee with some of these different bunkers and
32:20deeper bunkers, I think that's going to help Zach player a bit.
32:23I don't think this puts him into a category where he's going to be an elite player off the tee.
32:29I think that distance is still going to be very helpful here.
32:33But nonetheless, I do think that that helps him compete a bit more.
32:37And across the board, there's a lot to like in his resume.
32:40Let's get to our outrights here before we wrap the show.
32:43Spencer, you like Nikolaj Hoigard and the aforementioned Jackson Sober.
32:46So talk us through why you got here. I have to imagine golfers in this tier, it comes down to pricing.
32:53So give us a window just in case some people listening to this later in the week, if that is closed shut,
32:59it's a pass for them at that point. Yeah, that's always the million dollar question.
33:04Like it's the hard thing that we do on this show where sometimes numbers move and we always want to provide tangible and actionable information for everybody listening.
33:12And for these two golfers in particular, I do think there's still value out on the number.
33:17Like Sober in particular, it's really funny with him when you look at the matchups in the space.
33:22And Kyle talked about trying to find some of those.
33:25And I think that might be an interesting look to take this week.
33:29He's an underdog. Like at respected books to every single person.
33:32That's not necessarily what you want to see for some of these things.
33:36Like there is a disconnect between my model and what some sharp movement seems to say.
33:41And it's always something to keep in mind of like where our numbers actually moving and what's going on here.
33:47But the way I view it for him, he played three bad holes last week at a water heavy course where he
33:53found the water a few times, made a triple bogey, ends up missing the cut because of it looked good after day
34:00one as a golfer that everybody in the community wanted to back.
34:03And you get a number here that opened at 100 to one that has been bet down a little bit that you can still find into the 80s.
34:12My model though, has it even higher than what Kyle's would, for example.
34:16Like I have him as a top 10 overall player in this field.
34:19I have him number seven overall. I have him 11th for upside.
34:23So he gets a little bit worse for the upside.
34:26They're kind of right in line to what Kyle was talking about with some of those upside metrics.
34:31But I just think it's a price to where if everybody wants to move in the other direction because of one miscut,
34:38I'm certainly fine taking a shot there and just purely number grabbing it.
34:42And then with Hoygaard, this is probably the better way to try to attack him than even the matchup would be is
34:48to move it all the way up the board and to bet on some of those volatile statistics and volatile outputs in my model.
34:55Well, I can get Hoygaard as a top seven player when it comes to upside.
35:00And I mean, that is a return where we see him also drifting back at a couple of books.
35:05That's kind of where you want to be finding value though, is like, where is your model different than the rest of the market?
35:12And where can you attack in those spots? Because it's one thing to come on this show and give a price that's
35:19no longer available for anybody that doesn't do anybody any good.
35:22It's another at what is the cutoff point where we can actually still find value.
35:27And I think on these two in particular, you can, um, last note, I'll say until we go to Kyle's picks.
35:33Like if I just look at my model of players that rank inside of the top 40 in every single category of
35:39what I weighed this week, it's the top of the board.
35:43Essentially it's, it's Cameron Young, it's Chris Goddard up, it's Koivin, Cantlay.
35:46And then there's, you know, Hoygaard is more fringe of it.
35:49And then there's two at the bottom of Sober and Doug Gim.
35:53Um, like I'm kind of trying to find these names that are going to be the outliers lower down on the list.
35:59And I don't have an outright currently on Doug Gim.
36:02I seem to have a Doug Gim problem that I can't get off of.
36:07And I'm trying to talk myself not into this this week, but like the upside metrics always like the ball striking for him.
36:13And, um, Sober is like the same thing for me right now, but the numbers are just really checking all the boxes that I want to see.
36:21Kyle, let's get to your two plays. Wyndham Clark in about the 20 to one range.
36:26And then Ben Coles at the mid eighties, I saw 86 to one out there in the market.
36:31Let's start first with Wyndham Clark, obviously in career best form.
36:35He's among the tournament favorites here for good reason.
36:37He's won two of his last four starts, including his second U S open title in four years, a third place finish
36:44at the Memorial on a tied 11th at the RBC Canadian open, putting him fourth in the FedEx cup rankings this season.
36:50He's currently ranked ninth in the world across the PGA tour, the one red flag though.
36:55And this is what I'd like you to address.
36:58And perhaps this is what gives people a bit of buyer's remorse if they lock in a bet on Clark is that
37:04he missed the cut at four under at last year's rocket classic.
37:08So Detroit hasn't historically suited him as well as some of these other courses this year, but obviously he's playing as well as anyone on tour.
37:16And it can be kind of easy to forgive what happened in 2025 and chalk it up to, you know, perhaps just a bit of bad luck.
37:24Where do you come down on his course fit, his historic performance, as opposed to this blistering form that he's in right now?
37:30Yeah, I obviously, when looking at Wyndham Clark, that big red X in 2025 here jumped off the page.
37:36The one thing I'll say about Wyndham Clark is he missed the cut here, but he also finished top 10 here in 2022.
37:43So it's worth noting that Wyndham Clark right now, the way he's been playing over the last three or four months is
37:49a different player compared to what he was doing last year at this time.
37:53I think that's a big kind of counter to the, the miscut question there.
37:58Obviously we see guys go through these ebbs and flows and you can argue that Wyndham Clark's ebbs and flows over the
38:04past few years when he's been in form of winning his two U.S.
38:08Opens. And then outside of those times, he's gone through a lot of highs and some very severe lows in terms of
38:14not only off the course stuff, but as well as his actual play on the course.
38:19So I think that's a big sort of factor there in terms of how to assess that miscut last year.
38:25So for me, I'm not taking too much into consideration there.
38:28Again, this is a spot where there's going to be some, some volatility in terms of scoring.
38:33Like he could have gone out there and hit it as good as he could have.
38:38But if the pots aren't falling, that's going to lead to a miscut.
38:42Like you mentioned, he finished four under and missed the cut.
38:45So it's not like he necessarily played terribly. I mean, obviously not good enough to get the job done, but in terms
38:52of this year specifically, I think that the course changes actually help players like Wyndham Clark and pretty much any player at
38:58the top of the board in terms of overall skillset.
39:01I do think that the score is going to be able to push players up to or push the score up to these top end players.
39:09I think those guys with the elite skillset, Tita Green and all around are going to sort of float to the top with a more difficult setup.
39:17But in terms of Wyndham Clark, obviously I liked him at the open.
39:21He missed the cut in typical Wyndham Clark fashion.
39:23He just absolutely played terribly on, on day one and got off to a rough start on day two.
39:29And I think he finished the last four holes or under.
39:32So that's a typical Wyndham Clark thing to do, especially when I was, you know, backing him so significantly.
39:38But outside of that finish at the, at the open, he's been playing some of the best golf that we've seen of guys here on, in this field.
39:46So for me, again, I think that Wyndham Clark, even though it's a fairly short number, 22 to one, like you mentioned,
39:53I think he should be up in this 15 to 16 to one range.
39:57Maybe even like if I was making the market, he'd probably be, probably have a shorter number.
40:02I think from a market perspective, people are just a little bit too low on him.
40:07I think the missed cut at the open and last year at this event are holding this number back a little bit.
40:13So that's baking in some value there. There's a lot of competition here up at the top of the, there's a lot of great names.
40:21There's, you know, even some names that we've talked about in the past, Koivin obviously winning last week, he's going to be
40:27a more prominent name here this week. We see him in a number shorter than 30 to one.
40:32Cam Young is obviously playing great as well. So he's going to be someone that is a real threat to, you know, you have to obviously surpass that.
40:41But for me, all the, all the numbers are just checking the boxes here for Wyndham Clark.
40:46He's fourth in my strokes gain metric. He's number one in my scoring metric, number one in ceiling, number one in form.
40:52So a lot of great numbers here this week for Wyndham Clark.
40:56And then from a, from a putting perspective, I think that this is a spot where Bentgrass specifically and with these bigger
41:02greens, three putt avoidance, these are spots that he really, you know, takes a step away from the field and then really
41:09gain some, some positive numbers in my model. So putting metric grades out really well.
41:13Really? There's no, there's no weakness in his profile here other than the accuracy.
41:17So it's a spot where I'm potentially interested in sort of, I guess, diversifying who I'm investing in.
41:23Like Wyndham Clark here, even though he didn't play well, he's someone, if this course was exactly the way it was last
41:29year, I think he would benefit, right? Where you don't necessarily have to worry about the accuracy.
41:34You can sort of hit it far and go out and make birdies.
41:38Wyndham Clark does that with the best of them.
41:41I just think there's going to be some guys that I'm backing who are, you know, a little bit more conservative and
41:47hoping for maybe more changes or more impact on those changes.
41:51So Wyndham Clark is someone I think to get the job done regardless, but I do think he's someone that benefits really
41:57well if these course renovations are a little bit overstated or maybe not as big of a deal as some of us are thinking or hoping or wanting.
42:05But if that's the case, I think Wyndham Clark is going to be someone that benefits really well.
42:11For example, 100th in driving accuracy, 21st in driving distance.
42:14So if it's a spot where again, it does turn into more of a bombing or remains a bombing gouge event, I
42:20think he certainly benefits quite a bit. All right, let's close with your second play, 86 to 1, Ben Coles to win outright.
42:27Coles is red hot as well, not quite in the Wyndham Clark class, but he's coming off a career low 62 to
42:33lead the 3M Open last week at one moment.
42:36And then just three weeks before that, he was tied for the lead on the 72nd hole at the John Deere Classic
42:43before a costly double bogey dropped him to third.
42:45He's shown his high end play can get him into contention.
42:49What's one element of his game that you need to see improve to get him over the hump?
42:54Yeah, it's tough because the one element that he could improve on to get him over the hump is probably, in my
43:00opinion, the most difficult element of a game to just, I guess, randomly or quickly improve.
43:05And that's driving distance. That's sort of where he falls behind.
43:08And I don't think he's in a spot this week in particular where that will kill him.
43:13I mean, he's 87th in total driving distance here.
43:16I'm sorry, 87th in total driving, 128th in driving distance.
43:19But like I said, I do think that there's a good chance that with the differences in course this year compared to
43:26last, that could be a spot where it helps me.
43:29And that sort of parlays into my diversifying who I'm investing in for these outrights.
43:33But driving distance would be the spot where he could typically improve his game pretty quickly.
43:38I do think that's a difficult thing to do, especially overnight.
43:41I mean, we've seen guys do it like Matt Fitzpatrick did it, but it obviously took him a year at least, maybe months at best.
43:48But that would be the spot for him to improve.
43:51But I do think that he has enough in his game to make up for that.
43:56Like I mentioned, good drive percentage, total driving. That stuff is going to be something that's important from a good drive percentage perspective.
44:03He's third in this field. And then when you look at the rest of his strokes gain marks over the last 24
44:09rounds, eighth in total strokes gain, fifth in tee to green, second in strokes gain on approach.
44:14So those three buckets alone are enough for me to say that he can get the job done regardless.
44:20He is someone I would probably prefer. Like if you're just placing one bet on Ben Coles, top 20 is probably going to be the bet for me.
44:28But again, I do think that with these course changes and maybe that having a little bit of an impact on a
44:35guy specifically like Ben Coles, like if this course is going to change the way that guys have to play off the
44:41tee, he's someone that I think is at the top of my list in terms of guys who I'd have interest in,
44:48especially at the no longer than 80 to one number.
44:51And the heater that he's on certainly helps as well.
44:54He's essentially, you have to imagine he's feeling about as good as he has in his entire career, especially with the ability
45:00for him to go out on the greens. When you look at his putting splits over the last 12 months, he was
45:07107 in this field on the greens. Over the last 12 rounds, he's 17 in the putting.
45:12That's something that I typically like to avoid because it's probably not going to sustain round of a round and event over event.
45:19But the fact that he is feeling pretty good on the greens right now and he has all the ball striking stuff
45:25to back up performing well in these last 24 rounds and last 12 round splits has given me enough confidence to back Ben Coles this week.
45:33That'll do it for today's episode. Thanks for joining us here on the Action Network podcast.
45:38Be sure to check out actionnetwork.com and the Action app for all of our great golf betting and DFS content.
45:44And even better, sign up for Action Pro. Go to actionnetwork.com slash pro to take advantage of our new $20 off offer by using promo code POD20.
45:51You can find Spencer on X at TF Sports and Kyle at KMUR DFS.
45:56They're on the same handles on the free award-winning Action Network app if you want to track all of their plays in real time and throughout the weekend.
46:04For Spencer Aguiar and Kyle Murray, I'm Mike Calabrese.
46:07Best of luck betting this weekend. And we'll see you here next time on the Action Network podcast.
46:12Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
46:19On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
46:24I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
46:30I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
46:38I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
46:42Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
46:47Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast, Hollywood Handbook.
46:51Each week, we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
46:58Everyone has a good time and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
47:04We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, Adam Scott, Danny McBride, Ben Stiller, and a lot of other big
47:10shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
47:13Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
47:18I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
47:21You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
47:25Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
47:30You're not hired just to fill time and space.
47:33You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
47:41Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America, plays out in one small town.
47:48Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
47:52We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the
47:58site of a social experiment and fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
48:05Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
48:09Do you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
48:13We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
48:16The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
48:20I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
48:25I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
48:29Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
48:33And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
48:36Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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