2026 NFL Rankings | QBs
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 18, 2026
Published
Tue, August 18, 2026
34
Player insights
22
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock PurdyJustin HerbertMatthew StaffordTrevor LawrenceBaker MayfieldC.J. StroudCaleb WilliamsDak PrescottBo NixBryce YoungCam WardDaniel JonesDrake MayeGeno Smith
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
NegativeProjection30:17
Baker Mayfield is ranked twelfth in the 'litmus test' tier. Anderson notes that Mayfield's performance can look very bad when the blocking and weapons are not optimal, consistent with the tier's definition.
Insight pageNegativeProjection43:26
Baker Mayfield is ranked 12th. He is described as a high-variance player who can look like an MVP candidate when healthy but struggles significantly when injured or under pressure. The current offensive line setup is viewed as a positive for his potential.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveBreakout78:39
Bo Nix is identified as a potential breakout candidate who could elevate himself out of the 'game manager' tier. He showed strong deep-ball metrics last year and now has Jalen Waddle as a weapon, providing him with more upside than his peers in that group.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
NegativeProjection30:14
Brock Purdy is ranked tenth in the 'litmus test' tier, indicating his performance is tied to the quality of his team's offensive environment.
Insight pageNegativeProjection41:50
Brock Purdy is ranked 10th, jumping from 18th. He has proven he is more than just a product of the Shanahan system, showing improved pocket navigation and creation ability, though he still carries risk due to occasional mistakes.
Insight pageNegativeProjection60:09
Brock Purdy rounds out the top 10 quarterback rankings for the 2026 season according to Brandon Anderson.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection93:25
Bryce Young has shown improvement, but he remains a bottom-tier starter who is not good enough to lead a team to success, yet good enough to prevent a high draft pick for a replacement.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
NegativeProjection61:45
Brandon Anderson ranks C.J. Stroud as the 16th quarterback for the 2026 season, though he notes the entire AFC South group is volatile and could shift significantly.
Insight pageNegativeProjection63:36
C.J. Stroud is ranked 16th. Despite a strong rookie season, his performance in the AFC playoffs was poor, and there is skepticism regarding his ceiling as a top-5 to top-7 quarterback compared to others in the tier.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveProjection63:28
Caleb Williams is ranked 13th. His high ranking is attributed to his rapid development, specifically citing improvements in his deep ball accuracy and a significant reduction in sack rate under Ben Johnson's coaching.
Insight pagePositiveProjection65:56
Caleb Williams showed significant growth in his rookie season under Ben Johnson, with his deep ball grade jumping from 36 to top-five, sack rate dropping from 11% to 4%, and pressure-to-sack rate improving from 28% to 11%. While he still needs to improve his consistency and decision-making, his trajectory is trending upward.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection83:22
Cam Ward's rookie season was a disaster due to poor blocking, lack of weapons, and coaching instability, similar to Trevor Lawrence's rookie year. History suggests number one overall picks typically improve significantly in their sophomore season.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection25:26
Brandon Anderson ranks Dak Prescott seventh, arguing he has risen above the 'litmus test' tier. Despite playoff struggles, Prescott was number one in PFF grade under pressure and in the clutch last year, proving he can maintain high-level performance even when his team's surroundings are not perfect.
Insight pagePositiveProjection33:19
Dak Prescott is ranked above the current tier because he has proven he can be a great quarterback regardless of his team's surroundings, specifically citing his performance with Drake and Love.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeProjection95:40
Daniel Jones is coming off a torn Achilles and struggled with turnover-worthy plays last season. Despite some training camp hype, there is skepticism about his upside and durability.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveBreakout20:37
Ranked sixth, Drake May is praised for his breakout season where he led the league in scramble yards and was a top-two performer in key metrics. Anderson believes May has another level to reach, especially with an improved offensive line and the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs.
Insight pageGeno Smith
NegativeProjection79:13
Geno Smith is coming off a poor season, but there is a belief he could still be a serviceable starter if placed in a better situation. Despite the struggles, he is viewed as a potential trade target for teams needing a replacement starter.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeProjection57:02
Jalen Hurts is ranked 15th, a difficult ranking given his resume. Concerns include a decline in designed runs, potential physical regression, and struggles passing under pressure. This is viewed as a make-or-break year for Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeProjection68:40
Jayden Daniels had a lost season, and there are concerns about his ability to stay healthy given his reliance on his legs. The Commanders' offensive line and coaching situation are viewed as poor, leading to fears that he could follow a trajectory similar to Robert Griffin III.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveInjury13:36
Brandon Anderson remains high on Joe Burrow, ranking him third. Despite missing half of last season, Anderson views his injuries as fluky and non-recurring, noting that Burrow's ability to stand in the pocket and make throws provides long-term stability compared to mobile quarterbacks.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection17:13
Brandon Anderson ranks Jordan Love fifth, highlighting his elite efficiency metrics (2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in completion over expectation) and his status as the NFL's all-time leader in sack rate. Anderson argues Love is capable of greatness regardless of his surroundings, noting that Green Bay's struggles are often due to defense and coaching rather than Love's play.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection8:43
Brandon Anderson ranks Josh Allen as the number one quarterback for 2026, citing his physical tools and improved decision-making. While acknowledging the lack of a Super Bowl, Anderson argues Allen has been great individually in the playoffs and that his team's defensive failures are not his fault.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
NegativeProjection30:14
Justin Herbert is ranked ninth in the 'litmus test' tier, where performance is largely reflective of team surroundings rather than individual elevation.
Insight pageNegativeProjection38:52
Justin Herbert dropped to 9th in the rankings, a one-year penalty for failing to produce in the playoffs (0-3 record) and inconsistent metrics. While the ecosystem with Mike McDaniel and a better offensive line is promising, he must prove he can elevate the team.
Insight pageNegativeProjection60:09
Justin Herbert is ranked as the ninth-best quarterback for the 2026 season by Brandon Anderson.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue72:00
Kyler Murray is in an ideal situation with the Vikings, featuring a strong offensive line and high-end weapons. Despite injury history, he remains a high-upside play and is considered a potential playoff-caliber quarterback in Kevin O'Connell's system.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury13:51
Brandon Anderson expresses the most concern regarding Lamar Jackson among the top four, citing a poor season impacted by knee and hamstring injuries. Anderson notes that Jackson's reliance on mobility makes him more susceptible to a sharp decline as he ages, though he suggests last year's poor stats were largely due to his inability to move.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection30:12
Matthew Stafford is ranked eighth as the leader of the 'litmus test' tier. Anderson notes that while Stafford can reach MVP levels when his surroundings are perfect, his performance is highly dependent on the quality of his offensive line, weapons, and play-calling.
Insight pageNegativeProjection33:34
Matthew Stafford is ranked 8th, a significant jump from 14th last year. While he led the league in big-time throws (47), first downs, and passing yards, the ranking reflects skepticism about his performance when the supporting cast is not perfect, noting his age (38) and injury history.
Insight pageNegativeProjection60:09
Matthew Stafford is ranked as the eighth-best quarterback for the 2026 season by Brandon Anderson.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeProjection8:47
Brandon Anderson drops Patrick Mahomes to number two, ending a seven-year streak at the top. The ranking reflects a recent downswing in metrics (EPA, success rate, completion over expectation) and his first major injury (torn ACL), though Anderson maintains he is still in the top tier due to his proven playoff success.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
NegativeProjection30:16
Trevor Lawrence is ranked eleventh in the 'litmus test' tier, suggesting his output is heavily influenced by his team's surroundings.
Insight pagePositiveProjection45:41
Trevor Lawrence is ranked 11th, with potential to climb higher. His performance in the final seven games of last year was at an MVP pace, and there is optimism regarding his development under Liam Cohen in year two.
Insight pagePositiveProjection61:12
Brandon Anderson ranks Trevor Lawrence as the highest quarterback in the AFC South at 11th overall, noting he is the player he likes best in that division.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hey, this is Hayes Davenport and Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook.
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2:23The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action, boss.
2:26Ready! Alright, here we go. From the tent, throwing in zone.
2:29Spectacular catch. They're saying it's a catch. Touchdown! You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
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2:45I am Gilles Galantz, and I am joined by NFL betting expert and futures analyst, Brandon Anderson, here with the Action Network.
2:52And today, we're gonna kick off what we call Rankings Week here at Action Network.
2:56And Brandon, I know this is an exercise you do every NFL offseason.
3:00We gotta get prepared for the new season, and you like to study and rank pretty much every facet of a football team.
3:07Whether that be, you know, coaches, offensive lines, skilled players, offenses, defenses.
3:10All of them need to be ranked because they all play integral parts for the success of a football team.
3:16And of course, no position more important than the starting NFL quarterback.
3:20And that's where we're gonna start today with the big one.
3:23We are gonna dive into and rank all 32 NFL quarterbacks across the league.
3:27You can also check the Action Network website for the written version of all of these rankings from Brandon.
3:33I'm sure it's gonna be an intense piece, but again, very good read before we go into the season.
3:38Now, Brandon, obviously there's some criteria that you like to use for how you rank this.
3:43This might be a listener's first time hearing your process.
3:46Can you just tell us a little bit about the criteria you use for ranking NFL quarterbacks?
3:51Yeah, we are so back. We are ready for football.
3:54We've got, I think, about 7,000 words on quarterbacks up on the website by the time you listen to this.
4:00If you want to hear more, there will be plenty more there.
4:03For me with quarterbacks, it really comes down to one simple criteria.
4:07Pick the quarterback you want to help the team win a Super Bowl this year, period.
4:12That means things like health does matter because we need our guy to stay healthy for 18 games and four more playoff games.
4:18Hopefully three. Immediate upside matters. Not necessarily long-term stuff, but what about right now?
4:23Things like contracts don't matter. And importantly, and here's the tricky part, we're trying to parse out coaching, team situation, play calling, offensive lines as best we can.
4:31That's the hard part. All the moving pieces is trying to figure out who gets credit for what.
4:36But trying to say, okay, who could we put in on which team and have the best season?
4:41And as always, with this and all of our rankings, we'll do these in tiers.
4:46Tiers should mean, generally speaking, that names within a tier you can kind of argue against one another, but they should be inarguable up or down a tier.
4:54And so we're just going to kind of go through 1 to 32 quarterbacks and everything else on the next podcast ahead.
5:01And yeah, lead us away. Yeah, so we're going to start with quarterback rankings today.
5:05Later in the week, we'll do offensive lines, skill positions, coaching.
5:08But for quarterback rankings, again, we're going to start right at the top, go from 1 through 32.
5:13We're going to fly through these, hopefully get this done within the next hour.
5:18So let's start off right at the top. Some names that should not be a surprise to anybody.
5:23In the first tier, so tier 1, this is the best of the best.
5:27We have Josh Allen now at number 1, Patrick Mahomes at number 2.
5:31And in tier 2, we have, remember Brandon named these titles, so I'll just read them off.
5:36But the AFC North bites back. Number 3, you have Joe Burrow and number 4, Lamar Jackson.
5:41Now, we have to talk, I think, right at the top.
5:44I don't think many people will dispute that having Josh Allen at the top.
5:48But because you've done the quarterback rankings now for many years, and you've had Patrick Mahomes at number 1 spot for 7 straight seasons.
5:55So I want to ask, like, was it a tough thing to do to push him down to number 2?
6:01Yeah, it ended up really not being tough. Like you said, this is not really probably a controversial decision.
6:07But last year, well, look, 7 years, that's all the Mahomes years.
6:10Ever since he became a full-time starter, he's been number 1 every time until now.
6:15And I'm pretty sticky with these ratings. I try to not overreact as best we can to a small sample.
6:21Well, we already said last year, Mahomes was invincible until proven otherwise.
6:246-11 in a torn ACL, that's otherwise. We have to count that in.
6:28And I think the case for Allen is pretty clear.
6:31All the physical tools, he's cut down on the mistakes a lot.
6:34I know people are going to argue about the no Super Bowl in the playoffs.
6:39He's been a pretty great individual in the playoffs.
6:42That's an argument for another day. For Mahomes, it's his first major injury.
6:45The metrics have dropped off even before the injury.
6:48And I think that's the key here, where he's really been, like, around 10th or so in, like, EPA, success rate, completion over-expect.
6:55A lot of those things the last couple years now.
6:58So we still give him the benefit of the doubt.
7:01It's Pat. He's going to win in the playoffs.
7:03And even this last three years has been this kind of weird downswing from what it had been before that.
7:09But here's the weird downswing, Mahomes. 10.3 win pace.
7:126-1 in the playoffs with the ring. Yeah, that'll do.
7:15So, Mahomes, I'm going to keep you in the top tier benefit of the doubt still.
7:20But not number one benefit of the doubt. That's Allen now.
7:23And I think you can make a point, too, about both Allen and Mahomes where you could defend the position here.
7:29Because even Josh Allen with his playoff non-success, it's never really been about him.
7:33It's the defense kind of letting him down. Or even Patrick Mahomes.
7:37Yes, the stats have kind of regressed over the last three years.
7:40But when you look at that pool of skill position players, it probably should.
7:44You know, at this point, everybody's a bit year older.
7:47Like, Travis Kelsey's probably almost 40 now. So, but I want to talk about Burrow, Jackson, and Mahomes in total, specifically when it comes to the injuries.
7:55Right? Because all three of those guys had some injury issues last year.
7:59Joe Burrow missed half of the year. Lamar Jackson was dealing with knee and leg issues.
8:04Patrick Mahomes obviously coming off a torn ACL. How worried should we be going into 2026 about these three as far as the rankings go?
8:11I think not that worried, to be honest. We can always be aware of it.
8:16I would say I'm least concerned about Burrow. Pretty fluky injuries.
8:19And I know they keep on happening. But it's a lot of stuff that shouldn't really be repeated from year to year.
8:25I'm actually kind of a bit in on Burrow.
8:28But we kind of know where he's at in these ranks.
8:31Talked about Mahomes. To me, Lamar is the one where you could get the most concerned.
8:36But I do think people are overreacting, too. So, the numbers were rough last year.
8:40They were not good. And with especially a quarterback where the legs are more of a factor, then age comes in.
8:46And you're like, okay, when is the drop-off? And I think last year showed, when the drop-off comes, it's going to hit
8:53a guy like Lamar Jackson harder than it will a Joe Burrow.
8:56Because Joe's going to stand there and make the throws.
8:59And he may be able to do that for a long time.
9:03Lamar gets so much value out of his legs.
9:06But last year, that's where the injuries were. The hamstring and then the knee.
9:10And if you look at every time you find a stat for Lamar, it's really bad last year for his usual.
9:16And then you think about it and you're like, yeah, well, that's what would happen if you couldn't move around at all.
9:22So, I think to me, it's just throw it out.
9:25It's one really bad year. We have a lot of other good years.
9:29It's a new coaching system now. There are reasons still to have some concern.
9:33And all the playoff foibles still, too. But to me, we should be some concerned about these guys.
9:39But nobody else was ready to jump up into the section.
9:42Last year, we did this. I said, I wish we could leave five to seven blank.
9:47And I think now the five to seven names have filled in admirably.
9:50But they haven't filled in up to the one to four slot.
9:54So, we kind of know who these guys are at the top.
9:57Okay. So, before we talk about five through seven, let's just recap that again.
10:02So, you have Josh Allen, number one, Patrick Holmes at number two in their own tier.
10:06And then in tier two, you have Joe Burrow at number three, Lamar Jackson at number four.
10:11For reference, these are the same top four quarterbacks that we had in these rankings last year.
10:16All right. Let's move to tier three. You have called this tier great regardless of the surroundings.
10:21And at number five, you have Jordan Love, number six, Drake May, and number seven, Dak Prescott.
10:26That was probably the one of the three that I was a little surprised.
10:30But we'll talk more about that in a second.
10:33Let's – Jordan Love, you know, because last year, you might have been one of the more earlier adopters of Jordan Love as far as the metrics go.
10:41Like, you had him sixth last year. What makes you so sure about Jordan Love coming into 2026?
10:47Yeah, so for me, these are the only three other guys left on the board that I'm confident can be great regardless of the surroundings.
10:54What I mean by that is maybe the coaching is not great.
10:58Maybe the play calling is unreliable. The blocking has not been great up front.
11:02The weapons come and go. That's the sort of thing that separates you as like a really true top, top quarterback.
11:08And with Love, here's the numbers now. Last year, number two in EPA per play, number three in completion over expect, and number four PFF grade.
11:16He's the all-time NFL leader in sack rate. He's had at least nine wins every season.
11:20He's also on that stretch, and I know only one playoff win, but like you said, teams win, not quarterbacks.
11:26He's fourth in EPA per play in the playoffs on that stretch too.
11:30Another guy that I think has clearly been let down by defense, by special teams in Green Bay year after year, and
11:36I think honestly a little bit by the coaching too as much as I love LaFleur.
11:41So with Love, it's this weird thing where when he makes the mistakes, they're loud.
11:46They're ugly. I think it's a bit Josh Allen-y in that way.
11:49Like the mistakes are really bad because he's really good at hunting the big plays, but the big plays are there.
11:55And like you said, I do think the media is coming around a little bit and sort of has Love in this
12:02range now, so it's not so surprising. But I've been here.
12:05This is where Love is at, and I do think it's not a great setup for him in Green Bay.
12:11We'll get to that in some of the other rankings, but I think if Green Bay struggles this year, it's probably not going to be because of Love.
12:19It might be in spite of him kind of sticking around and doing his best.
12:24Yeah, not to do a spoiler on the skill position rankings.
12:27I'm not very high on the pattern side of things, which is why I tend to agree with you on that.
12:33Jordan Love has kind of elevated his status as a quarterback in the NFL.
12:37Drake May, almost won MVP last year, and you called your shot on him when we did this pod last year.
12:43You had him at number 12, and you said it wouldn't be surprised if he made a little bit of a jump, and he clearly did.
12:51I guess the question I would have to ask about Drake May is, does he have another leap in him like that?
12:57Because for me, if I was to say if he had a leap, it would be where the Patriots could really just
13:04let him loose near the red zone because he scrambled a lot, didn't do a ton of that in the red zone.
13:10Yeah, and I think that this is a spot where I mentioned I'm pretty sticky in these rankings.
13:16If I just went off of last year, I think Drake clearly is in the next tier up at least.
13:22And I think at the end of this year, if he does what he did last year all year again and in
13:28the playoffs this time, my friend, because he was not so good in the playoffs last year, despite the Super Bowl, that wasn't on him.
13:35If he does that this year, I think he could be in the top tier with the top guys.
13:41That's the level he was last year. He was top two in basically every key metric.
13:46You mentioned scrambling. He led the league in scramble yards.
13:49He would have been my MVP vote. And importantly, they didn't really have that great blocking last year, especially in the playoffs.
13:55They didn't have great weapons at all. Now the line gets a little better.
13:59Now you get A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs. And the receiving set looks a lot better with those guys.
14:05So it's kind of interesting with Drake May and the Patriots because I feel like last year almost was a surprise, a bonus for them.
14:12I think they've been building towards this group that they've added now.
14:16And they've added all this around the offense. Now what can Drake do?
14:20And can he repeat it again? Can he put those metrics to the top and get those wins?
14:25And if he does it two years in a row, then I do think there's another level with some of these options around him.
14:32And so I think sky's the limit on a team that I thought I would be ready to fade as we kind
14:39of were ready to say, OK, well, you know, all the schedule stuff last.
14:43We debated that all year. But now it's offset by all these additions around Drake May.
14:47And I think he's ready to rock. OK. Jordan Love five.
14:51Drake May six. Dak Prescott seven. Look, I'm wearing a cowboy sweater.
14:54Like I am all cowboys. I'm very plugged into how they how they operate.
14:58And Dak Prescott, I find over the years, one thing that he has really shown is that he can at least raise a floor of an offense.
15:06Now, it doesn't necessarily mean he gets to the ceiling.
15:09No, but at least we know kind of the baseline of what he can get to.
15:14So even as a Cowboys fan, though, I find it difficult to rank Dak Prescott this high.
15:19And look, I know you fairly well. I know you don't do drugs, but I have to ask, like, are you high with this?
15:26What's going on? So this is really around the range I've usually had Dak.
15:30This like kind of seven to ten, not the top five, but definitely in this range.
15:35To me, the move was moving up into this tier, even though it's kind of about the same number, putting him with
15:41these other guys, putting him with Drake May, with what Drake did last year.
15:45And it's, again, looking at the surroundings. That's the heading here.
15:49So last year, Dak faced the third most pressures in the league, but he was number one on PFF grade under pressure.
15:55He's been a top five PFF grade overall two of the last three years.
15:59The year in between was terrible. But like Lamar, I think with just an injury year, you kind of throw out given
16:06the rest of his stats over his career. He was number one in the clutch last year on PFF grade.
16:12Just the numbers keep checking out. And look, I know he had the huge Pickens year and CeeDee Lamb.
16:17You've got the great weapons. We can account that against Burrow if we're being honest, but we're taking into account all the
16:24other things, too, with what Burrow's weapons have. I think Dak has just shown that it's not just these weapons and he's
16:30not just a litmus test for the team. We're going to get to that in a second in my next year.
16:36That's what I'm moving him up from. I think he's risen above that.
16:40And not quite far enough, not for you, a Cowboys fan, because you got to mention the two and five record in the playoffs.
16:47And he never gets that win done there, but 10.2 win pace in the regular season.
16:52And ironically, I put this in the article. I think he's kind of become this era's Tony Romo, another guy that I
16:58thought was always like the eighth best quarterback, top quarter of the league every year.
17:03But you got that star on the side of the helmet.
17:06You get a lot of extra criticism. And I don't know, maybe we shouldn't be doing Tony Romo comps these days.
17:12That's a different comp altogether. But I think Dak has been really good and proven he belongs in this area.
17:18Yeah, with Romo and Prescott, we'll just keep Prescott, get him a driver at least for a little while just to make
17:25sure we don't follow in Tony Romo's footsteps. But I think the main thing that I would say with Dak and the
17:31one thing that you mentioned about Jordan Love before we move on is just the turnovers with that star on the helmet
17:38are just so much more loud and impactful. So Dak Prescott tends to be a pretty divisive quarterback.
17:43But I think right now, even analytics people, even just the general public, I think around seven to eight is the appropriate range for him.
17:50So yeah, Dak Prescott. So again, we'll go through this top seven here.
17:54Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Drake May, Dak Prescott.
17:58Those are the first seven quarterbacks in Brandon Anderson's quarterback rankings for the 2026 season.
18:03We now move to tier four and as you called it, the litmus test.
18:07And before we talk about the name, let's see you have five quarterbacks in this range.
18:12Number eight, reigning MVP, Matthew Stafford. Number nine, Justin Herbert.
18:14Number 10, Brock Purdy. And number 11, Trevor Lawrence.
18:17And number 12, Baker Mayfield. Out of the five, I think Baker might be the one that kind of stands out the most.
18:24We'll talk about him here in a second. But let's start just with the tier name itself, because I know this is
18:30a tier that you pretty much like to use for those quarterbacks between the eight and 12 range.
18:36So just define what litmus test means for you from this exercise, and then we'll reveal who we got.
18:41Yeah, this is one where it's like, OK, how did the quarterback do?
18:45If you tell me the quarterback stats, tell me how the quarterback did this year.
18:50You're probably telling me what did the team do?
18:52How did the team surroundings look? Because they're going to sort of reflect what the team was.
18:57So great blocking, good weapons, good play calling. You can get an MVP out of here.
19:02This is where the Matt Ryan MVP rose out of.
19:05This is where, look, you mentioned it. Matthew Stafford, the MVP is in this tier.
19:09We'll get to him in a second. But I think, too, importantly, when things don't go well, when the blocking goes badly,
19:16when the weapons get injured or just aren't that talented, when the play calling isn't there, things can go the other direction.
19:22As a Vikings fan, I had a lot of years watching Kirk Cousins, who was like the stalwart in this group near the bottom usually.
19:30But in this range of like the 12th best quarterback in the league, which is so frustrating as a fan because you
19:36just get stuck in these years of like, well, they're kind of good but not quite good enough.
19:41Can they make the play? Well, they can if everything is perfect.
19:45And if everything is perfect, like with Stafford last year, things can look really, really good.
19:50Everything is not perfect. And we'll get back to that with Baker.
19:53Things can look really bad. And so I think this is one where this tier is you reflect your team surroundings.
19:59And that's why I think Dak is above that now.
20:02I think he's proven with Drake and with Love that he can be a great quarterback regardless of that.
20:08Even though he's MVP, I still haven't gotten there with Stafford.
20:11And I know you want to talk about him.
20:14You've kept teasing the old rankings. And it's like letting the listeners hear how Matthew Stafford's name is still not in the list.
20:21And we're finally here. So what do you think on the Stafford thing?
20:24Well, for me, just my general rule of because spoiler, we both bet on Matthew Stafford to win MVP last year.
20:31We got that at 50 to one. But I just find it hard to put seven other guys in front of the reigning MVP.
20:38And for me, just I have a general rule.
20:40Like if you win MVP, you get top five status.
20:43That doesn't mean you're going to be in the top three or you maybe even be a tier below the guys, but
20:50you're going to still be solidly in my top five.
20:53So make the case. Matthew Stafford at eighth. Yeah.
20:55So, I mean, look, the rankings have him at eight because I think that there are seven guys who we just mentioned
21:02who'd all be just as good with the Rams.
21:04And importantly, I think those seven guys teams would be worse if they have Stafford instead of the quarterback in their place.
21:11And that's that's it. That's the ranking system. Look, the numbers are obviously great.
21:15Last year, Stafford, 47 big time throws. That's a PFF stat that led the league by 16.
21:20That's like 50 percent more than the next guy.
21:23That's a huge number. He led the league in first downs, pass yards, pass touchdowns.
21:27He won MVP for us. We cashed our tickets.
21:30But could you possibly get a better situation set up for a quarterback?
21:34All five linemen were top 10 PFF grade. So you got great blocking.
21:37You have an elite rushing attack. Thanks, Sean McVay.
21:40You have great play calling. Probably the best in the league.
21:43Like Puka and Devante, maybe like the all time red zone target.
21:47And you have a good defense. So you're playing with the lead in comfortable positions all year.
21:52When the calibration is all right like that, Stafford still gets credit for doing the thing.
21:57And that's why he won MVP. But I think a lot of other guys would look really good in that setup when everything is just buzzing just right.
22:05And the thing with Stafford that always gets me.
22:08And it's funny. This is actually a big jump.
22:10I had him 14th last year. So up to eighth is a big move for me.
22:15But with him, it's like everyone remembers the sizzle plays, right?
22:18Everyone remembers the red hot stretch when everything is right.
22:21But when things get off kilter a little bit, you get one injured lineman and a little bit extra pressure.
22:27Suddenly it's like, oh, right. He's not that great under pressure.
22:30And oh, okay. One of the receivers is hurt.
22:33He can't quite create like some of these other guys.
22:36Don't forget. He's also 38 with injury issues like one hit.
22:39And he could be sidelined or that could be career ending.
22:42We didn't even know if he was going to be ready to play heading into last season.
22:47That was part of the MVP narrative. So for me, there's still a lot of downside here that I think we kind
22:54of conveniently choose to overlook a lot as sports media.
22:57And so he's really good. He's still top quarter of the league here.
23:01And I get that most folks would have him higher.
23:04But I have been a bit of a skeptic over the years.
23:07This is high for me. I think he's a perfect litmus test.
23:11The group around him was so good last year.
23:13And he's at the top of this group for a reason.
23:16I think I bullied you into putting him into eighth.
23:19I think that's what happened. Because I feel like when we first talked, you had him closer to like 12th, 13th.
23:26Like kind of like what you had last year.
23:28And then the more we talked, you're like, I got to do it then.
23:32Fine. All right. Let's move over to the neighbors in SoFi Stadium, the LA Chargers with Justin Herbert.
23:38Because he dropped a full tier here. He was top five for you.
23:42And now down to ninth. Is it put up or shut up kind of this season for him?
23:47I think it is. Like undeniable tools. And he hasn't had the help, right?
23:51He's had a rough blocking last year. Both the tackles basically missed the whole season.
23:55But at some point, you got to actually do the thing.
23:59And like the metrics have never really been there for him.
24:02He's kind of been a fringe top 10 in all the metrics.
24:05That's where I have him now is fringe top 10.
24:08And at some point, you can't just keep projecting.
24:11You have to do the thing. And he has not done the thing in the playoffs.
24:16That's for sure. He's 0-3. And quarterbacks are not only responsible for the wins.
24:20But he has been horrendous. He has been awful, awful in those playoff games.
24:24We remember them. This year, I like the line a lot.
24:27I like Mike McDaniel a lot. I think this is the best ecosystem that Herbert has had.
24:32Probably what I should be doing is holding firm on Herbert in my top tier.
24:37Because he would make me look good finally this year.
24:40That's not how I do this exercise. I think he has to prove it.
24:44And this is going to be like a one-year penalty drop.
24:47And he probably jumps back up into that tier now that he actually has a chance to do the thing.
24:53But do the thing, Herbert, for once. Well, I mean, I think any quarterback, when they lose both starting tackles by week
24:59four for the year, you're going to see some regression.
25:02I think it's just more surprising of how poorly he played after Joe Alt went out.
25:07And then it was a really difficult offense to watch.
25:10All right. Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield. A little bit higher for me than what I'm used to.
25:15But what bumped them into this range, especially Baker?
25:18Yeah. Purdy number 10. Like last year, look, I had Geno Smith number 10.
25:22Did not go well for me. Sometimes you've got to put someone as a top 10.
25:26And there are maybe nine top 10 quarterbacks as we were at.
25:30But I think Purdy's kind of proven at this point.
25:33He jumps up from 18 for me. We know the good stuff.
25:36When the system is worrying and when everything is cooking under Shanahan, you know it's going to look good.
25:42We've seen that from Jimmy Garoppolo, from Mac Jones.
25:45But we saw last year, we saw Mac Jones.
25:47And that was not the same offense anymore. There's something that Purdy adds different than those other quarterbacks.
25:53And we've seen enough by now. The pocket navigation, the extra creation.
25:56There are some mistakes too. You pay the penalty for the upside.
26:00But I don't think this is just Shanahan anymore.
26:02It's definitely a lot of it. It's why he's in this tier.
26:06But he's really won me over. Baker, I'm tentative on here.
26:09He's bottom of the tier for me. But I think we kind of forget.
26:13So last year, he started 5-1. I think he was like the MVP favorite for a hot minute or at least really close to it.
26:21He had wins against the Texans, the Seahawks, and the Niners.
26:24Those are really good teams. And he did that with no Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin.
26:29And he was the MVP favorite among them. Then he hurt his shoulder and the wheels fell off, off.
26:3427th in EPA per play the rest of the way.
26:37And it was really bad. And that's kind of the Baker story.
26:41It's either really good and fun, if we're being honest, or really, really bad.
26:45So the scrambling, the creation, that's all fun. And you see him laying it on the line.
26:50But you're always going to get the risk of the big mistakes, the sacks, the turnovers.
26:54That's the sort of thing that a truly elite quarterback can't have.
26:58And so I think for me, if I'm being honest, this is a touch of projection here.
27:03I just mentioned with Herbert, maybe I should be being more aggressive this year.
27:07I like the Bucs offensive line a lot. I think it's a really good spot for Baker.
27:12And it was not last year. And I think we saw last year the litmus test.
27:17For early part of the year, we saw things a little more stable and he looked good.
27:22And then when he got hurt and things went awry and had a lot of injuries there, he looked really, really bad.
27:28I think it's a good setup and I think it can look good this year, but we'll see.
27:34Okay. So before we get out of here, all right.
27:37Matthew Stafford at eight, Justin Herbert ninth, Brock Purdy 10th, Trevor Lawrence 11th, Baker Mayfield 12th.
27:41We didn't say anything about Trevor Lawrence. Do we need to say anything about Trevor Lawrence?
27:4611th feels appropriate. Yeah, I think it's about right.
27:49Last seven games last year, he was on pace during that stretch for 4,500 passing yards and 54 touchdowns.
27:54That's MVP numbers. That's a huge leap. I need to see more.
27:58I need to see it under Liam Cohen year two.
28:01That was a really soft schedule stretch. So is that real?
28:04Was that like he put it together finally under a good play caller?
28:08Probably part, maybe not quite that much. 10% drop rate from the receivers last year.
28:12Really fun and good receiving course. So a lot of reasons to like him.
28:16He's another one where, look, I don't think Baker or Purdy is going to jump up tiers from here.
28:22Lawrence could definitely jump there still. There's room for him to keep climbing.
28:26I think this is the right spot for now.
28:28Football season is here, folks. And if you don't already have the Action Network app, now is the time.
28:34And to get the most out of the app, you'll want to be an Action Pro subscriber.
28:39And it's only with Action Pro. You can get real-time pick alerts from me, Brandon, and the entire Action Network team of experts.
28:46You can access Pro projections, which are powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team, and a ton of other benefits.
28:52And right now, Action Network podcast listeners can save $20 off the annual price of Action Pro.
28:57Just go to actionnetwork.com slash pro. Use code POD20.
29:00That's actionnetwork.com slash pro. And use code POD20 for $20 off the annual price of Action Pro.
29:05On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
29:10I can wait four hours for the next bus, or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
29:16I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
29:24First, I'm on a mission to reclaim the word solita, trading the pity for possibility.
29:28Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people, and they were like, you smiled at us.
29:34Not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is
29:40and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind, or
29:47wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your
29:53first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
29:59I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
30:03If you know me, you know I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
30:08So this podcast lets us uncover those things together through meaningful conversations with fascinating people.
30:12Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
30:17You're not hired just to fill time and space.
30:20You're hired to fill the space with you. You have something in your guts.
30:24You go with it. And Shawn Johnson recalled the moment she realized her now husband, Andrew, was the one.
30:30He was just so unapologetically himself and knew nothing of Hollywood.
30:33He hadn't been on a plane before without his family.
30:36It was so pure. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
30:43Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
30:45But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
30:48What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
30:54Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
30:58The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
31:02But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
31:08Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
31:15God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
31:18Do not use my hard work to sell your bulls**t.
31:21They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
31:24Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
31:29Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
31:33Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
31:38We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman.
31:41Not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this?
31:44How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script?
31:48What if the surprise woman who actually you think is the straight man is actually the one who's acting weird?
31:54Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show.
31:59I would never expect. Let go of that. I have.
32:01I would never set expectations for something like that to happen.
32:05It seems like you did. If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it.
32:10I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine.
32:13Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you.
32:19I was like, is that weed? Nope. It's fragile masculinity.
32:22Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is.
32:29You know what I mean? They're so stupid. Everyone's so dumb except for you.
32:33And fake. Right. Fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life.
32:37I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
32:44Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on
32:50every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
32:57Did you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
33:00We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
33:03The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
33:07I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what, are you going to be singing today?
33:12I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
33:16Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
33:20And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
33:23Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
33:29All right, we're back now into the quarterback rankings for the 2026 NFL season.
33:33We've now moved to Tier 5. This is the Upside Swings, and we start at number 13 with Caleb Williams.
33:39And number 14, Jaden Daniels. Number 15, Jalen Hurts.
33:4216, C.J. Stroud. And number 17, Kyler Murray. That is now two tiers in a row.
33:47I feel like you've just shoehorned in a quarterback that I'm not sure needs to be there.
33:52But again, I'll let you explain kind of why we have Kyler Murray here.
33:56But I want to start with Jalen Hurts, because I like to do this exercise, too, where I try to rank the quarterbacks 1 through 32.
34:03And like you, I found it difficult to kind of pick his spot, because I feel like if I put him at
34:1015th, I feel like I'm a couple spots low.
34:13But then if I put him at 10th, I'm like, oh, no, no, no, that's too high for me.
34:18Was it also hard for you to rank Jalen Hurts as quarterback this year?
34:22Yeah, I think he was probably the hardest guy for me to come up with.
34:27Even now, I don't feel great about 15. I feel like it's wrong.
34:31It's either 5'2 high or 5'2 low, and we'll have a better answer like two months from now.
34:36That's really this whole tier is this whole section is guys that are going to make me look dumb one way or
34:42the other, but we don't really know which direction yet.
34:45And so, to me, at this point of our presumed quarterback draft, if we may, I'd rather take a shot on the upside here.
34:52The guys after this tier basically is like, I don't really feel like I'm going to win with you at my quarterback position this year.
35:00So, I'd rather take the upside shot on one of these guys.
35:03The question with Hurts is, is that upside still there with him?
35:07And I think it's fair to wonder that in part because the value with his legs, and not just the tush push, that's the whole thing.
35:14That's still there, but he's not really running that much.
35:17There's a lot fewer designed runs now. And if that value is starting to go, and look, he just kind of looks
35:24a little slower, if we're being honest, the last couple of years.
35:27I think the injuries and all those tush pushes maybe have cut up a little bit.
35:32If that value drops, he's not always been the best passer.
35:35We all know this about him. He's been bad under pressure pretty much his whole career, but he's had this incredible line to help protect him.
35:43He's not been reliable passing. We know about the middle of the field issues, and now we have this new Sean Mannion
35:50offense that seems to be built around attacking the middle of the field.
35:53They went out and got these other guys to attack the middle of the field.
35:58Well, guess what? Your guy's got to throw it to the middle of the field, so I hope this works out for you.
36:05I don't know if it will, Jill. Like, it's hard to deny what Hurts has done in the past.
36:10Last four years, 14 wins, 11, 12, and 13.
36:13Two Super Bowls, the Super Bowl MVP. If we're ranking based on what you've done on your resume, this is undeniably way too low.
36:20Like, there's no question about it. It's stupidly low.
36:23He should be top five, but that's not the exercise.
36:25The exercise is, who do I want this year?
36:28And every time I ask that about Jalen Hurts, I moved him down a couple spots.
36:33I just can't get super excited about him. The past has been good.
36:37I don't feel great about where it's ending. And I think there's a real scenario this year where we get to the
36:43end of the year, or maybe not even the end.
36:46I think this could be, if it doesn't go well, the end of the Hurts and or Sirianni era.
36:52Like, maybe that's not news. Like, that's always, it's Philadelphia.
36:55Maybe every week is the potential end of Sirianni and the Hurts era.
36:58But I think this has potential to be like, man, the flaws are so glaring.
37:03It's not worked in any of these other systems.
37:06And this is a bad contract we have to get rid of now.
37:09Or I'll look really stupid, and he'll be right back up in like eighth at the top of the litmus tier like he usually is.
37:17Well, I mean, I think if the exercises that were ranking quarterbacks, then yeah, maybe Jalen Hurts.
37:22Like, if the exercises to rank like fullbacks near the goal line, Jalen Hurts would be number one with a bullet.
37:28You know, but I think that's the point is that at some point you have to be able to throw the ball and move around in the pocket.
37:36And now with A.J. Brown gone, like the excuses are kind of gone with this.
37:41Oh, are we unhappy? Are we happy? And then, of course, if you read any kind of training camp offseason stuff, it's
37:47Jalen Hurts has really improved his accuracy. And it's really going to try to make it over the middle of the field.
37:54So we are going to see this is kind of, like you said, kind of a make or break year, it feels like, for Jalen Hurts.
38:01But let's talk about the young guys in the group because Caleb Williams is somebody I was probably a little bit higher on.
38:08I thought maybe closer to the top 10 range.
38:11I can kind of understand why you had him over Jaden Daniels at the top at 13 and 14.
38:16But CJ Stroud, like how does he fix in here?
38:19Because the last time we saw him on a football field, it was probably one of the worst displays of quarterback play.
38:26Yeah, Stroud was really rough. And that's why he's toward the bottom of this group.
38:30To me, again, this is the upside tier. I don't know that I really feel like upside goes with Stroud anymore at this point.
38:37I don't think, especially compared to these other guys, I don't know that I've ever really seen him as a top 5-7 potential type guy.
38:45And if you don't necessarily have that level of upside, the downside is clear.
38:49The downside has been really ugly. He was 31st in the PFF grade last year.
38:53I did not think he looked that bad. And look, he's getting no blocking.
38:57They got no run game. Their pets' heads are falling off.
39:00It's not great for Stroud. Maybe he belongs in that litmus tier group.
39:04But he was more than that last year or less than that, whichever way you want to go.
39:10He was bringing the team down. I think that was the best team in the AFC playoffs.
39:15And he cost them the AFC playoffs and a chance at the Super Bowl.
39:19So if the upside is not necessarily there, you've got to be at the lower part of this group.
39:24With Caleb and Daniels, the upside is clearly there.
39:27I thought, honestly, I'd be even a little bit lower on Caleb.
39:30But he's one, I mentioned with Hurts, I kept wanting to kind of squeeze down.
39:35Every time I'd come back to my list, I'd be like, maybe one spot higher for Caleb.
39:40I don't want to really be late on Caleb.
39:43Last year, you and I did these exercises. How many times did I say the words Ben Johnson?
39:48Like 100 across the three weeks of preseason? I had to mute it after a while.
39:53It was a lot. But it was right. He was really good.
39:56And Caleb was really good. And that's why I ended up quite as high as Caleb as I am, is because last
40:03year, out of his rookie season, coming into the NFL, there was these two huge flaws that continued into his rookie season.
40:09He had not a good deep ball, even though he threw a ton of them.
40:13And he was holding the ball way too long, creating mistakes.
40:17And then last year, in one year with Ben Johnson, his deep ball jumped from 36 PFF grade to top five.
40:23And his sack rate dropped from 11% to 4%.
40:26He dropped a full second in time to throw.
40:28And his pressure to sack rate from 28%, which is horrible, to 11%, which is really good.
40:33All that happened in one year under Ben Johnson.
40:36It's just like, we know the good. We saw the plays against the Packers.
40:40We see that one-of-one ability to rip through the defense, pass through four guys, and make the play.
40:45You can do that if you can cut the bad out out of the way.
40:50That's why we had the Mahomes comps for him before the draft, is because you know the good stuff, but can he get rid of the bad stuff?
40:58And for me, can he eat the vegetables? Can he hit some singles every now and then and just move the chains a little bit?
41:05That's why you mentioned you maybe would have him top 10.
41:09I could get there. I need a few more veggies in between.
41:12I need a little bit of that with it, but he's moving the right way, and I want to be on the right side of him.
41:20With Jane Daniels, I don't feel like we really learned anything last year, just kind of a lost season.
41:25The truth is, he has the better season so far than Caleb Williams.
41:29Same draft, two years each. His rookie season's the best one-year product, I think, out of the two.
41:35But the injuries, and again, so much of Jane's value is tied up in his legs, and we just don't know if he can stay healthy.
41:42That was already the question with him. I ended up Caleb over him because I like the trajectory.
41:47I like where Caleb is going. I believe in that direction.
41:51Jaden is a wild guy. I do think people are a bit too far out on him based on just kind of one lost year.
41:58But then I look, and I'm not very high on the commander's line this year, and they're coaching.
42:03And it's not a great spot. It's kind of just team-only Jane Daniels again.
42:08And I worry that we get a lot of the Robert Grip in the third comps with him.
42:13It does worry me that we're headed that direction.
42:15But the upside is still there with them, too.
42:18Well, I think the Jaden Daniels, CJ Stroud issue here is offensive line.
42:22Not to spoil anything when we eventually do our offensive line rankings.
42:25Don't be surprised if both the commanders and Texans are in the bottom five for offensive line rankings as we go.
42:32All right, I have to ask. Kyler Murray, sell me on this because, you know, the height has always been an issue for me with Kyler.
42:39And you saw it even last year when Jacoby Brissett took over that you could actually see passes that being made, these
42:46singles or vegetables that you like to talk about.
42:48What are we doing here with Kyler Murray as a Viking quarterback?
42:52Yeah, look, maybe it's just delusion at this point.
42:55I look back at last year's column, and I basically had him right in this range and said, but I think I might be out.
43:02I even called him possibly NFL LaMelo Ball. Here I am, Minnesota sports fan, and I got to root for LaMelo and Kyler Murray now.
43:09I did that to myself somehow. It's possible I'm going to just be way out on this ranking soon.
43:15Kyler, I don't know that he's the best fit for Minnesota, but it's undeniably the best spot that he's had to be able to be good.
43:23I think their offensive line can be better than people think.
43:26They have great weapons there. He's got to stay on the field, man.
43:30He's only averaged 10 games the last four years, but when he's been healthy, rarely, and in a good ecosystem, even more rarely, he's been a 500 quarterback.
43:38So can we start with a 500 baseline, stay on the field, and then can we get Kevin O'Connell and the better
43:44system here and give you another chance? Look, he was free for the Vikings, so it's a no-brainer.
43:50He's not JJ. It's an obvious choice that they go with him.
43:53He's still the former number one pick. He still has been like a mid-season MVP favorite at one point.
43:59I have to believe a little bit in the upside because if you don't take the upside swing, you get one of
44:05the next four guys or the guys from here forward, which I basically think this to me is the last guy that I'm like, you know what?
44:13I can believe in you in a playoff setup to go do something for me.
44:18Famous last words for me, the Vikings fan rocking my Culpepper jersey today, but I'm not going to believe that way about
44:24anyone else left on the list, not this year.
44:27Well, we will see. This will probably be Kevin O'Connell's biggest obstacle to success with the Vikings because if they went eight
44:33and nine, like if you had JJ McCarthy as a starting quarterback, we'd probably be talking about the Vikings quarterback room as
44:40bottom five in the NFL this year. For sure.
44:42So that's 13 through 17. Let's now move to tier six.
44:46Brandon calls this tier. You can win with him, but not because of them.
44:50And number 18, you have Jared Goff, number 19, reigning Super Bowl champion, Sam Darnold, number 20, Bo Nix.
44:55And again, you keep shoehorning these guys into tiers that I'm like, what are you doing?
45:00Like 21, you have Geno Smith at 21, which I'm just like, oh my gosh, I cannot wait to hear this case here.
45:07So tell me a little bit more. Let's start with Sam Darnold.
45:10Well, let me just start, but just with kind of grouping these guys all together in the tier thing.
45:16So this is a group where you're going to hear people talk about them as quote winners.
45:21And I like, is winners a compliment or is that pejorative for them?
45:25Anyone above this group, if you're like, okay, tell me about Caleb Williams.
45:29Tell me about Kyler Murray. You're going to have people talk about traits.
45:33You're going to hear about the arm strength. You're going to hear about their escapability, all these things.
45:38Ask me about one of these guys. You're going to hear about, he's a winner.
45:42He's got moxie. He just finds a way. Like no traits.
45:46It's all just, well, they win games. And so they win games.
45:49The games are winning. So that must be happening for them.
45:52And it's like, at some point you kind of have to admit what they are.
45:57You can win with these guys. We just saw the Seahawks win with Darnold.
46:01We saw the Broncos almost make the Superbowl with Knicks.
46:04They probably would have if we stayed healthy, but I don't think you're winning because of these guys.
46:09And importantly, we all know this, you can definitely lose because of these guys.
46:13And that's the separation here. Look, you can lose because of every quarterback, because you can make a mistake.
46:19But at some point, this used to be the game managers tier for me.
46:23This was like the Ryan Tannehill section. He was like a classic number 20 quarterback for me.
46:28I think we've elevated quarterback play above game managers now.
46:31But still, when you get to the big game, these dudes leave me cold.
46:35And I don't really know what order to put them in, to be totally honest.
46:39I could argue just about any order here. But at the big moments, they leave me doubting.
46:44And I think if we're being honest, when we watch, I think they leave their coaches doubting too.
46:50The coaches still treat them like the training wheels are on.
46:53And so I don't love the options here. You can get far with them.
46:57And look, you can win the Super Bowl. We just saw it happen last year.
47:02But they're not the guys I get excited about.
47:04That's kind of where I'm at on Darnold. That's where I'm at on Goff.
47:08If I had to pick one guy in this group to not be in the group, to get out of it.
47:14And look, that's kind of where Purdy was. Purdy has leapt out of this group for me.
47:19Maybe Bo Nix. I think Nix, because he can make plays with his legs.
47:24Because he can scramble around. And he gives you a little more upside.
47:27He gives you a little shot to do something.
47:30And look, last year, he was second in the league in big time throws.
47:34He was top three in PFF grade on deep throws and throws a ton of them.
47:39And now you go get Jalen Waddle. That's the dude this team has lacked.
47:43Bo Nix has my attention a little bit. And this is not a guy I've ever been on before.
47:49But I think he's the one guy that could jump up out of this group.
47:53Without question, you mentioned it. Gino might be just like sneaking his way into here.
47:58Look, last year was awful for him. The numbers are terrible.
48:01It might just be over for him. It might have never really been under for him.
48:05He has been a 500 starter in four of his six years.
48:09Last year, the line was terrible. The coaching was bad.
48:12Maybe this is going to be that again this year.
48:15And it's just going to make me look bad.
48:18But I think if you took Gino and put him into one of these other three situations, I still think you could get a comparable result.
48:25Maybe he's just washed at 35. But if I were the Lions, if I were the Broncos, and let's say Sam Darnold,
48:32let's say Jared Goff tears an ACL and is out for the year, I would be willing to trade for Gino and
48:38salvage my season and feel like I can still get a similar result.
48:42At the end of the day, I had Gino here.
48:45I dropped him to like 26 and was like, no, man, he was so bad last year.
48:50And I'm taking courage. I'm putting him here in the group.
48:53I still think he might have another year or two to belong here.
48:57But these guys, they're not that exciting to talk about.
49:00Courage, man, is one thing. Like the fact that you have Gino Smith not in the bottom five of quarterbacks, I'm just shocked.
49:07And I think I wish him well. I hope he has a good season in New York.
49:12But yeah, at 21, I'd be more surprised if he throws less than 21 interceptions this year than, you know, at this point.
49:19All right. So 18, you had Jared Goff, 19, Sam Darnold, Bo Nix at 20, Gino Smith at 21.
49:24Now we're in tier seven where we kind of the jury is still out because these are number one pick wild cards.
49:31At number 22, you have Fernando Mendoza with the Raiders.
49:34At number 23, Cam Ward. Now we're probably going to see Mendoza at some point this year.
49:39I know you're probably not as out on Kirk Cousins maybe as some other people.
49:43But eventually, I think Mendoza is going to take the reins here during the season.
49:47But what we saw of Cam Ward last year, it wasn't great.
49:51I mean, it was really bad across the board for the Titans.
49:54So is this ranking more like a projection? Yeah, it for sure is.
49:58Everything about this tier is projection because we just don't know.
50:02So like actually, you know, Kirk would be in that last tier of guys pretty obviously.
50:06That's kind of where he would belong. And that's who is going to start the season with.
50:11I could see Kirk in the Kubiak system actually being a really strong fit there.
50:16I think Mendoza will be eventually. With Cam Ward, we didn't get that system.
50:20It was really a lost year. He had no blocking.
50:23He had no run game. Very little. He had no receivers there.
50:26The coaches get fired in the middle. It kind of reminded me of Trevor Lawrence's rookie year.
50:31You get the number one pick and you get Urban Meyer.
50:35And it just is a disaster. And I'm sort of treating this year coming like Cam Ward's rookie year.
50:40I think he just didn't have a rookie year.
50:43I think he had a lost year. He was dead last in EPA, dead last in success rate, led the league in sacks with 55.
50:50He was third to last in PFF grade ahead of only two Browns, which I think at that point you're just last also.
50:57So it's all really bad. Here's the stat that you need to know for this tier though.
51:02Since 2015, that's Jameis Winston, number one pick. Number one pick quarterbacks as a rookie average 3.3 wins.
51:07Sophomore year, they average 8.6 wins. So whatever hype we think, look, there's a reason you picked number one.
51:13Your team's probably not good enough. That's what we saw with Ward last year.
51:17History says he's going to get better this year.
51:20He's going to win more games. History also says maybe not yet for Mendoza.
51:24I told you before we did the podcast, put me in right now for the 2027 Raiders.
51:29I'm going to be in on that team next year.
51:32I think I sort of maybe have to think about being in on the Titans this year, unless Ward is actually just
51:38kind of rookie a second time again. Okay. So 22, Fernando Mendoza, 23, Cam Ward.
51:43Now we are in tier eight. Can we call this one?
51:46We just don't know yet. And at 24, we have Tyler Shuck with the New Orleans Saints, 25, Jackson Dart with the New York Giants.
51:53And number 26, the man with the raw deal who I think is just going to have a horrible season.
51:59And that is Malik Willis with the Miami Dolphins.
52:02So I don't really want to talk too much about Malik Willis and the Dolphins scenario because I just don't, I'm just not high on it.
52:09I don't think there really is much to discuss, but I think there is stuff about Tyler Shuck and Jackson Dart because
52:16depending on who you speak to and what rankings you look at, like I've seen Tyler Shuck as high as 12, you know, in some rankings here.
52:24So let's just start off. Why do you have Tyler Shuck over say Jackson Dart?
52:28And how do you have hope for either of them?
52:31Really? Yeah, I think some hope, but moderate hope.
52:34We just need to see and look, I'd rather have a little tiny bit of hope with this group than the remaining options below.
52:41That's the point of the rankings. We'll get to those guys in a second.
52:45So Shuck goes five and four. A lot of the metrics, he's kind of like fringe top 20.
52:50That's really good for a second round rookie. That's a really good outcome for a team that, look, I had them last last year.
52:57I ranked Tyler Shuck below the Browns last year.
53:00That's how bad we thought it was going to go.
53:03It didn't go that bad, but those five wins were against the Jets, the Titans, twice against the Panthers and the Bucks.
53:09Not exactly really lighting it up against these great defenses.
53:12He still was 25% pressure to sack rate. That is not good.
53:16And he's still a dude with a ton of injury history.
53:19And he's already like 45 years old because he came into the league as a rookie, super old.
53:25So that limits the upside and the development curve.
53:27It was pretty good. It was much better than I thought, to be honest.
53:31But it was for nine games. And it was for nine games that came against kind of nobody.
53:37And after everyone had already written off the Saints, maybe including some of their opponents.
53:41So I think maybe he could be like 20th on this list.
53:45Maybe I'm a little bit low here. I'm willing to be wrong on Shuck.
53:49I need to see more than nine games. I would rather prefer the upside of Jackson Dart.
53:54He's more of a home run hitter. A little bit of like faint Caleb Williams, the way I talked about him here.
54:00I need more vegetables from Jackson Dart. And I could use a few less concussion checks too, if we're being honest.
54:06I think four already last year. He's got to take care of himself.
54:10But I like the playmaking with his legs. I like the deep ball.
54:14But he's inviting these big hits. He's inviting the pressure as well.
54:18And so I think with Dart, what I do like a little bit, if I'm in on the Giants, I'm not positive
54:24that if he does get hurt, that it's a downgrade.
54:27Jameis is a pretty good backup and another home run hitter there.
54:31So maybe that's the upside here. Again, at this stage of our quarterback rankings, our draft, I'd rather have a shot at
54:37some upside because hit me with the next five names.
54:40It gets ugly from here. Well, the one part of upside, at least I think of Tyler Shuck is kind of what
54:46I think people thinking of upside for Jackson Dart because there is that rushing ability from Tyler Shuck, especially near the goal
54:53line, to the point where the Saints didn't even bring Taysom Hill back anymore.
54:57They're just saying, nope, we've got that to that point.
55:00And then Jackson Dart, like you said, I think I'm done with the replays of the blue medical tent at this point with him in this stage.
55:08All right. So we're now in the bowels of quarterback play here.
55:11This one is called Tier 9, unfortunately. The last one was said that we don't know yet.
55:16Unfortunately, we probably do know about this tier. And we'll start at number 27, Bryce Young, number 28, Daniel Jones, 29th, Tua
55:23Tagovailoa, 30th, Aaron Rodgers, and 31st, Jacoby Percent. Brandon, I got to tell you, this tier is pretty bleak.
55:29I'm looking at this. I don't see a lot of upside here in this group to the point where now Aaron Rodgers
55:35is behind Bryce Young and Tua Tagovailoa. So tell me what we're thinking here.
55:39Yeah, we're thinking about the draft next year. If I have one of these guys at quarterback, that's what we're thinking.
55:45Rodgers, last year I had him in that kind of game managers group.
55:49He's not even that anymore. He's allergic to pressure now.
55:52The mistakes are there. And the upside is long gone.
55:55So now if the bat is there too, I don't know what we're doing, how we got back to.
56:01We finally got rid of Tomlin Steelers, and now we're stuck in Rodgers Steelers version.
56:05Bryce Young, top of the group here. It's like the perfect compliment to give Bryce Young.
56:10With him, it's all about don't confuse improved with good.
56:13Clearly very improved. He still is improving each year.
56:15He played pretty well in a playoff game for the Carolina Panthers.
56:19We just saw that happen. I think Bryce Young is the 27th best quarterback in the NFL now.
56:24I think he's proven that he can be among the worst starters as a quarterback in the NFL.
56:30I just don't really care. I don't really find that valuable.
56:33Like, he's just good enough to get you to not get a good draft pick to get a real quarterback.
56:39And you don't really want Bryce Young. You really want a real quarterback.
56:43Tua stinks. I think Tua might just be washed.
56:45But with him, the reason I end up sliding him ahead of Rodgers, at least you get Tua and Penix.
56:51I don't really like either guy. But if they're like both the 40th best quarterback, I don't know.
56:56Maybe one of them gets hot. Maybe one of them finds the right rhythm in that offense there.
57:02So I get two cracks at the Apple, but I don't know.
57:05I don't know if I want any of the cracks from these guys.
57:09Well, I mean, last year, though, like you had Sam Darnold at 28th, goes on to win the Super Bowl with the Seahawks.
57:16In this tier, it's kind of showing a trend here that there could be a guy that could emerge maybe even to just semi-competent, right?
57:23Like three years ago, you had Baker in this spot.
57:26Geno Smith. But what I'm getting at here is, is there a guy in this group that maybe could get out of the toilet here?
57:33You know what I mean? Get back into good graces.
57:36Like if I had to choose, it probably would be Daniel Jones.
57:40But who would you pick out of that five?
57:43Yeah, I think Daniel Jones probably is the answer.
57:45I think Kyler is an option, but probably hasn't fallen far enough yet.
57:49I think Kirk could be an option. If he ends up hot at the start of the year and they're like, man, we got to keep winning.
57:57We can't play the rookie yet. Tua, I don't know.
58:00I mean, the dude was at the top of a great offense like a couple of years ago.
58:05Maybe Bryce takes another step, like 17 more steps.
58:08Maybe Jameis, if he gets another shot here, he could be an intriguing guy.
58:12I think it's probably Daniel Jones among the options this year.
58:157-1 star last year, but then 1-4 after that.
58:18He still had a lot of mistakes. I know there was a lot of Daniel Jones hype, but he ended up outside the top 20 PFF grade.
58:26He had the second highest pace of turnover-worthy plays.
58:29I still don't really believe the upside. As good as the Colts offense was, it wasn't because of Daniel Jones.
58:34And now he's got the torn Achilles. And all the reports at a training camp are glowing and it's all great.
58:41We're not going to see him in the preseason.
58:43So I don't get to find out if it's actually good or if you're just telling me it's good.
58:49And I do know we just saw Rodgers and Cousins, older guys admittedly, not do so hot coming off that torn Achilles.
58:55And the injury risk plus the Daniel Jones of it all, I just can't get there.
59:00So maybe this is unfairly low. If you want to put him in that like Bo Nix, Jared Goff group above, I get it.
59:07If he was healthy, I think I would have had to begrudgingly put him up there.
59:12But add in the Achilles too and just like, yeah, I just, I don't need it.
59:17All right. Last and certainly least, it might as well be you or I a quarterback for the Browns scenario here.
59:23Deshaun Watson, Dylan Gabriel, Shader Sanders, whoever you want to pencil in there.
59:27I'll be honest. I don't really want to talk too much about that situation.
59:31I think it's not worth our time. How about yourself?
59:34Yeah, it's bad. Like it looks like Watson is going to win the job.
59:38He was last good in 2020. That's the COVID year.
59:41And he was good going four and 12 and he's still beating out the other guys.
59:45That's what you need to know about the Browns this year.
59:49Yeah. Forget, forget about the bottom. Let's go back to the top because I want to recap the top 10 and just
59:55see if there's any key takeaways we can get from this.
59:58So let's go through it again. Number one, you had Josh Allen.
60:02Number two, Patrick Mahomes. Number three, Joe Burrow. Number four, Lamar Jackson.
60:05Number five, Jordan Love. Number six, Drake May. Number seven, Dak Prescott.
60:09Number eight, Matthew Stafford. Number nine, Justin Herbert. And to round out the top 10, you have Brock Purdy.
60:15First glance on this, Brandon. A lot of AFC loving this.
60:18Yeah. Five of the top six quarterbacks still in the AFC.
60:21So I'm hearing a lot of talk about, man, the AFC is wide open.
60:25Are we sure? Are we sure the AFC is wide open?
60:28Because quarterbacks still win a lot of stuff. And half of the conference is 20th or lower also.
60:34So if you're one of those half of the conference teams that doesn't have the quarterback, it's an uphill battle because you
60:40probably got to beat two or three of these top guys just to get to the Super Bowl.
60:46So I think still, as we think about futures, no bets yet on that.
60:50But beware the AFC sleeper. You might have to beat some really good quarterbacks in order to get there.
60:55And the best guys are still out in the AFC for me.
60:59Yeah. And the one thing I was just going to say, the AFC South, a lot of quarterback play in that division can be a little unpredictable.
61:07I mean, the highest rate of quarterback you had out of that group was Trevor Lawrence, I believe, at 11th.
61:13And we didn't really talk much about him because there's just not really much else to say at this point.
61:19So is it kind of wide open for you in the AFC South?
61:22Yeah, I think so. Of all the divisions, that's the one where just from a quarterback perspective, it's like, man, I could
61:29really if we get to the end of the season and you said, here's the order of the quarterbacks ranked from the
61:35season, you could tell me those four, I think, in honestly, any order.
61:39And I'd be like, huh? All right. Yeah. Wow.
61:42I can't believe it. But sure, I guess we got there.
61:45Like, so I have Lawrence 11, Stroud 16, Ward 23, and Jones 28.
61:49And if we're being fair, based on last season, Ward 28, Jones 23 would be more fair there.
61:54But all four of those guys could be off in like five spots either direction.
61:59Lawrence, I like best. That's why he's the highest.
62:01But we don't know much about this group yet.
62:04And so I think, you know, that they have seen NFC South have been the divisions for years where it's like, well,
62:10we talk a lot about them because somebody has to come out of it.
62:15Those quarterbacks, I think, is what makes this division so unpredictable this year.
62:18You know how we know NFL is back, Brandon?
62:21We just closed a show talking about the AFC South.
62:24Just put that in context. Like quarterbacks that probably you don't feel great about winning a Super Bowl at all.
62:30So that is the NFL quarterback rankings for the 2026 season from Brandon Anderson.
62:34That'll do it for today's episode of the Action Network podcast.
62:37I want to thank you for tuning in. And you're going to be hearing a lot from us over the next couple of weeks.
62:44Brandon and I are going to go through NFL rankings for all phases of the game, skill groups, coaching staffs, offensive lines, and more.
62:51So don't forget to leave us that five-star rating and review wherever you listen to the podcast.
62:56And make sure to download the free award-winning Action Network app.
63:00You can save $20 on an annual pro account by using pod20 at actionnetwork.com slash pro.
63:04So for Brandon Anderson, I'm Gilles Gallant. Thank you for listening to the Action Network podcast.
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63:48Each week, we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
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65:10We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
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65:17I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
65:22I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
65:26Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
65:30And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
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