FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview | 2026
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40 min
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Aug 12, 2026
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Wed, August 12, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
0:05I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
0:11I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
0:19I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
0:23Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:27I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
0:31You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
0:35Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
0:40You're not hired just to fill time and space.
0:43You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:51Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
0:58Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
1:01We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
1:09And fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
1:14Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:19Do you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
1:22We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
1:25The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
1:29I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
1:34I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
1:39Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
1:43And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
1:46Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:51The Action Network Podcast. Better than most. Better than most.
1:54Better than most. Winner, winner, ticket down! Four! You got real talent.
1:58Don't concentrate on golf. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.
2:01The PGA Tours FedEx Cup playoffs kickoff this week, and we're here to break it all down for you.
2:07I'm Mike Calabrese, and I'm joined by Kyle Murray and Spencer Aguiar.
2:10For those not in the know, the way these playoffs work are fairly simple.
2:14It's a three-event postseason series featuring a progressive cut of players based on regular season points.
2:19So we're going to start with the top 70 golfers who all qualified for this week's FedEx St.
2:24Jude Championship. Then the field narrows down to 50 in the second round, and then culminates in the final 30 players competing
2:31in the Tour Championship at Eastlake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia.
2:34Now, the St. Jude Championship is played at the TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.
2:38It's a Ron Pritchard design and a converted dairy farm.
2:41A little fun fact. It's par 70. It's about 7,300 yards with Bermuda from tee to green, though the fairways themselves are zoysia.
2:48I don't know if Spencer can give any, you know, intel on that.
2:52Not exactly sure what zoysia grass is or how it'll factor in, but I'm sure his model has at least a tab for that.
2:59This course, by the way, got an extensive overhaul in 2004, after which it's been perennially ranked as one of the toughest tracks on tour.
3:06And what you're going to hear from these commentators this week is basically this.
3:10It's a shot maker's course. It is not a bomber's paradise by any stretch.
3:14The rough run's thick and you really penalize if you put it into harm's way because there's plenty of water lurking both for drives and approach.
3:22Anything that wanders too far, you may get wet.
3:25And these golfers, speaking of getting wet, are going to be sweating their asses off here because they're going to wilt in this heat.
3:32It's consistently going to be in the mid-90s with a little wind projected for the weekend.
3:36So let's start there, Spencer. In terms of the heat itself, you have so many metrics that you're considering stats.
3:42Do you have anything for the temperatures and what they're going to be dealing with?
3:47I know that we talk about these courses getting baked out and the impact on the actual shot making.
3:52But in terms of the physicality of playing in 90, 95, 100 degree heat, that's got to factor in at some point, right?
3:59I run it in my model. There's a certain portion of it that does look for the heat.
4:05And I did it through all individual four strokes gain metrics with the way that I tried to look at it.
4:11And if you dive into my model, you can see what a player does off the tee in similar hot conditions.
4:17You can see how they do approach. You can see how they do across the board with it.
4:22I don't know what the exact pronunciation is. I don't know if it's Zoysia or what the fairways are called here.
4:28But if we go to the Zoysia fairways and that whole discussion of what we're having, like this is a strokes gain
4:35tee to green test through and through, as you've talked about with ball striking kind of being the number one thing that jumps up on any single model.
4:43And you see that come to fruition very early on when you try to handicap this course because the Zoysia fairways are
4:50going to give you this ability for a ball to be able to sit up.
4:54The flip side of that is if you miss a fairway, you're sitting down in this really thick Bermuda rough.
5:00There's a secondary penalty that comes into play with that.
5:03And that's beyond just the 11 holes that feature water.
5:06So it is really important to be able to find the short grass off the tee in this spot, because if you're
5:12not, you're already scrambling from the wrong end of the spectrum and trying to do so into green complexes that got remade
5:19last year and reconstructed that played really firm and fast at the core.
5:23And we've seen certain players historically find success at similar tests.
5:26When you talk about driver heavy courses where there is a wayward penalty that comes into play.
5:31And we can talk about some of those players throughout the show.
5:34Some of them I've backed, some of them I haven't that we can just have conversations on.
5:39But proximity buckets are going to be 125 to 200 that you want to be looking for.
5:44Nearly 67% of shots fall into that distance. There's a really big uptick there.
5:49Ball striking, as we've all talked about so far, and I'm sure Kyle's going to give a very similar answer, is what you're going to be looking for.
5:57If you do want to add putting to the mix, Bermuda putting, creating opportunities, expected make percentage.
6:02I think those are things that you can try to highlight into a model.
6:06But when you hear some of my names as I continue on throughout this show, you're going to understand that putting is
6:13really not one of the things that came to the forefront of the discussion.
6:17And for anybody who listens to this program, not to tip the lead and tease it, but there's certain players that I
6:23talk about quite a bit that are going to be featured one more time throughout this year before we finish it.
6:29Kyle, let's get you in here on this question and this angle.
6:33When you think about the playoffs, do you separate any of the data year over year?
6:38Do you view it in the same way that you may view a major as opposed to a minor tournament?
6:43How much of that plays in or do you think it's just a lot of noise that particular golfers come in?
6:50Maybe they don't have a lot of experience in the playoffs or on the other hand, maybe they have a lot of course experience here.
6:57How do you balance all of those factors for a special part of the PGA season?
7:02Yeah, I think it can be tough. I think there could be some value to that.
7:06I do think that we see, I guess it's tough to get into the mind of some of these guys because obviously
7:13they all want to go out and win that final event there at Eastlake.
7:17But I think also you see a lot of these sorts of events with these stakes raised, especially now over the last couple of years with signature events.
7:25I do think that this week in particular, I think a lot of things that I'm modeling translate to that, you know,
7:32the no cut, smaller fields, really elite fields. So I think it's there's probably certainly some stuff to factor in there.
7:38I think it's difficult to factor that into a model.
7:41But I think for me, the first sort of angle that I kind of thought of when you asked this question was
7:47certain players who are maybe on that next week cut line, like the top 50 or even the top 30 guys who
7:54are maybe pressing a bit more, maybe have a little bit more incentive there.
7:58Because, you know, we even heard Roy talk about it where before the last signature event, he's like, if I want to
8:05be in the top 70 or even the top 30 to be in the final round of the playoffs, like these events
8:11aren't going to matter as much again, I think that these players are still going to have that, you know, drive to
8:18go out there and win this week, no matter where they are.
8:21But I do think maybe that those bottom 20 guys may have a little bit more extra push, extra incentive.
8:27I think that's difficult to bet pre-tournament. Maybe that's something that you look into as the tournament's playing out.
8:33Maybe see guys who are closer to that 50 person cut line there.
8:36But I think that's probably the first angle that I would think of in terms of how you could actually bet into that narrative.
8:44But I certainly think there's a little bit more added incentives there.
8:47I think it's just tough to model. All right, let's get into our first bet here on the pod.
8:53Spencer bringing JJ Spahn minus 110 and a head-to-head over Min Woo Lee.
8:56This course seems to let Spahn do what he does best, which is, you know, play from the fairways, find targets, attack the pins.
9:04It certainly was a straightforward game plan that worked out well for him last year with the final round 65.
9:09He's seventh in this field in strokes, gained T to green over the past three months.
9:14And I mean, really, in terms of the head-to-head, his numbers would lead you to believe that he's undervalued here.
9:20But also in terms of his overall ceiling and perhaps a top 10 finish, it's really going to come down to the putter.
9:27How much does the putter concern you in this head-to-head matchup, Spencer?
9:30A little bit. I mean, he's 61st for Bermuda putting.
9:33He's 62nd on fast greens. He's 56 over his last 24 rounds.
9:37And if you look at the putter in general, he is 48.
9:40There are a couple spots that push him a little bit higher.
9:44He's been historically decent on easy putting courses, which is something that you see here.
9:48And, you know, I think that this is a really funky matchup in a board in general, just because, like, I come
9:55on here every single week and talk about trying to find miscut potential.
9:59And with this being a tournament with no cut, there is a certain volatility that a Minwoo Lee possesses that does play
10:05better here over the course of four rounds. Like, we've seen it from him historically.
10:10He can get hot with the short game at any given time.
10:13The driver looks good for this course. More so what I am trying to look for in the metrics here is there
10:20is a certain proximity bucket that his statistics get worse over what the baseline projection is for him inside of my model.
10:26So, like, if you take it to this tournament, 69 players are teeing it up.
10:31He's projected to be the 67th best player when it comes to weighted approach for this course.
10:36And I do think that is a concerning mark when we start looking at a player that we know has volatility to him.
10:42You know, I don't trust JJ Spahn necessarily. I do think that there are markets to back him in.
10:48I considered him as an outright. I almost would argue that some of those upside metrics play a little bit better here
10:54than even some of the safety marks would. But I seem to be lower on the market than Minwoo Lee or the
11:01people are on Minwoo Lee at least this weekend.
11:04And if you are looking for other negatives to be able to throw into that bucket of why these metrics might actually
11:10be more factual, Minwoo Lee is 68th out of 69 player at TPC courses.
11:14He's 59th at the most similar courses that I weighed inside of my model.
11:18He's 51st for weighted scoring. So, like, there are a lot of answers here that move him in the wrong direction.
11:25I am hoping that out of one of the four days or two of the four days, you see that approach game go sideways.
11:32And Spahn is able to put together some sort of a top 30 finish to where we're not fighting at the bottom of the leaderboard.
11:39And on the flip side of it, Minwoo doesn't get hot in the portions of the game to where all of a
11:45sudden, like, that upside can exude itself with the driver.
11:48So, you know, I never have a ton of exposure.
11:51You're not going to hear a placement bet from me.
11:54I'm going to take this board as kind of a more suppressed outlook than I normally would just because of this being a guaranteed four rounds for everybody.
12:03But that was the one for me that I thought had the biggest edge on the slate.
12:08You've heard me say it before. We have market movers here on this podcast, and you want to get their bets and their analysis right away.
12:15And the only way to do that is by signing up for Action Pro.
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12:27The PGA, Major League Baseball, the WNBA. And we got college football and the NFL season right around the corner.
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12:39That's code POD20 for $20 off a year of Action Pro right now.
12:43Go to actionnetwork.com slash pro to get in on this offer so you can become the smartest better you can be.
12:49On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
12:54I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
13:00I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
13:08I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
13:12Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us.
13:18Not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is
13:24and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind, or
13:30wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your
13:37first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
13:43I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
13:46If you know me, you know I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
13:51So this podcast lets us uncover those things together through meaningful conversations with fascinating people.
13:56Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
14:01You're not hired just to fill time and space.
14:04You're hired to fill the space with you. You have something in your guts.
14:08You go with it. And Shawn Johnson recalled the moment she realized her now husband, Andrew, was the one.
14:14He was just so unapologetically himself and knew nothing of Hollywood.
14:17He hadn't been on a plane before without his family.
14:20It was so pure. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
14:27Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
14:29But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
14:32What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
14:38Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
14:42The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
14:46But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
14:52Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
14:59God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
15:02Do not use my hard work to sell your bull****.
15:05They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
15:08Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
15:13Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
15:17Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
15:22Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook on the Big Money Players Network.
15:28Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, a.k.a.
15:33The Biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
15:38Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
15:44We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman.
15:47Not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this?
15:50How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script?
15:54What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird?
16:00Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show.
16:04I would never expect. Let go of that. I have.
16:07I would never set expectations for something like that to happen.
16:11It seems like you did. If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it.
16:16I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine.
16:19Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you.
16:25I was like, is that weed? Nope. It's fragile masculinity.
16:28Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is.
16:35You know what I mean? They're so stupid. Everyone's so dumb except for you.
16:39Right. Fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life.
16:43I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
16:49Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on
16:55every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
17:02Did you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
17:05We are at D23. So we'll see who stops by.
17:08The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
17:12I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
17:18I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
17:22Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
17:26And I guess I can share that. No way.
17:28Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
17:34All right. You brought up this idea of placement wagers.
17:37Let's hop into it. Kyle's bringing two to the table.
17:40Let's start with Tom Kim, a top 20 finish at plus 160.
17:44I know we don't overreact to recent form or course fit, but Kim has made the cut in 10 of his last
17:5011 starts with four top 10s, six top 20s, and a win at the Scottish Open.
17:55He's also coming off finishes of top five, top 20, and first over his last four starts.
18:00He had a top five at the Wyndham last week heading straight into this event.
18:04So plenty of wind in his sails. Is there anything else specifically that you think makes him such a good fit for this course?
18:12Yeah, I think we've obviously talked about the ball striking importance for this week, especially approach play.
18:17And Tom Kim certainly checks a lot of boxes there.
18:20I think obviously when you look at just straight up strokes gain on approach, Tom Kim is going to float towards sort of the top of this leaderboard.
18:28Obviously, there's a lot of difficult people to surpass on the way to that top of the leaderboard.
18:33But when you're looking at approach fit for this course, so different yards, buckets, different ranges of outcomes based on those different
18:40yards that you're playing from the rough or fairway.
18:42And then also proximity opportunities created from certain distances.
18:45Tom Kim checks a lot of boxes for me in that approach fit metric this week.
18:50He's number one in this field, which again is not an easy task.
18:53Obviously, you have Scotty Scheffler, Porakawa, these elite ball strikers.
18:56And for Tom Kim to sort of surpass some of those guys is certainly an interesting mark on his resume for this week.
19:03Obviously, a lot of that is potentially being fluffed up a bit by some very, very strong recent form.
19:09Like you mentioned, you won the Scottish Open T5 last week at the Wyndham.
19:13Third place finish at the US Open. All coming off of elite approach play.
19:17And the one thing that has gone haywire for a bit at times, aside from the putter, is that off the tee
19:24play when you throw it back to the Open Championship.
19:26When Tom Kim missed the cut there. I don't want to say necessarily can write that off because obviously you have difficult conditions there at times.
19:34Off the tee play was brutal that week, led to a missed cut there.
19:38But I think this is a course that can sort of put different clubs in his hand off the tee and really
19:45allow him to excel with his irons and on the approach play.
19:48So Tom Kim is someone that I think trades out as, you know, a top 12, top 15 play from this week.
19:55I have an 11th in my model. So to get him at plus 165 for a top 20 finish, there's some value there for Tom Kim this week.
20:03Next up, Michael Thorbjornson, who just won the Rocket Classic.
20:06Over his last 16 rounds, though, he's been white hot.
20:09He ranks inside of the top 10 in strokes gained tee to green.
20:13He is a young golfer. He's only 24. But we saw this last year in terms of his play down the stretch in the August, September, October.
20:21Played really well. He's doing so yet again. Seems to be a bit of a trend.
20:25What else can you point to that makes it interesting from a placement wager perspective?
20:30And then talk me through a little bit of your money management here.
20:34Is it purely just a top 20? Are you sprinkling on a top 10?
20:38Walk me through your process. Yeah, real quick on the, I guess, the unit management for me.
20:43There's going to be some top end guys that I'm betting this week.
20:47So for these guys, usually I will dabble. And I think for official plays, I probably won't bet outrights.
20:52I'm greedy, though. If I have someone in the top 20, maybe I'll throw a couple bucks on them to win it.
20:59But for me, for, you know, I guess official plays, these are guys who I'm probably just leaning towards the top 20
21:05marks just because of the fact that, again, I'm going to have some units tied up to guys a little bit up the board a bit.
21:13For me on Thor Bjornsson here, obviously he's a guy who doesn't really necessarily lack the potential.
21:18I mean, when coming out of college, coming into his rookie season, ton of upside here.
21:23We've seen it at times, some flashes for him over the last, I guess, season and a half, two seasons.
21:29But he really fluctuated with the irons over the course of this season in particular.
21:33But over those last three starts, shown some significant upside in terms of his approach play led to that.
21:39Obviously, the win at the Rocket Classic, T7 at the Scottish Open.
21:42So it's a really strong form for the Orby Jornson here.
21:45So to get him at plus 195 for a top 20 finish, he grades out right around that 20th mark in my model this week.
21:53He does have a little bit more of a volatility ranking.
21:56So again, that's probably the reason why I'm looking at him for, you know, I guess, longer shots or plus money bets
22:02here, not necessarily in the head to head markets or anything like that.
22:06But bottom line, when you look at the recent form for his total strokes gain, fourth in the last 12 rounds, second
22:13tee to green in the last 12 rounds. And over the last 24 rounds, he's seventh in strokes gained, total seventh in tee to green.
22:20So the tee to green play has just been exceptional for him.
22:24Obviously, it's going to be a little bit, again, fluffed up or elevated based on that win at the Rocket Classic.
22:30But unless this is a guy who I obviously was happy to bet early on in his career, and he did sort
22:36of taper off with his consistency and reliability. But now with some spiking here, I want to get on that before the
22:43ship sails in terms of value for Thorby Jornson here.
22:46We have a four pack of outright winners here.
22:48We're going to start with Sam Burns at 22 to 1, Cam Young 25 to 1, Hideki Matsuyama 29 to 1, and
22:55Siwoo Kim, that name that we dropped at the top, a familiar name here on the pod, 35 to 1.
23:01Let's start with Sam Burns, though, at 22 to 1.
23:04This is Kyle's pick bringing to the table. He's first in strokes gained total across the top 25 in terms of the model this week.
23:11He's also been proving it against the strongest field.
23:14A top 10 finish, he's finished tied for seventh at the Masters and a top five finish at the Open this year.
23:20Talk me through what you need to see for him to finally break through and to win one with really arguably, you
23:27know, all the lights on him, one of the biggest stages in golf this week.
23:31Yeah, absolutely. I mean, when you talk about Sam Burns and all the lights on, that is a little bit scary considering
23:38what he did at the Open Championship. I mean, I can't help but feel like he sort of gave that turn away.
23:44Obviously, Ryan Fox had an excellent finish down the stretch there, but Sam Burns really just didn't have his best stuff on Sunday there.
23:51And, you know, I had an all right ticket on him that week as well, so I was even more disappointed with the finish there for Sam Burns.
24:00But again, when we talk about these guys a few times this year, talked about him last year a couple of times.
24:06But there's always a couple of guys in golf who get this sort of, I guess, rep or bad reputation for not being able to finish tournaments.
24:14But when you're consistently there, I mean, you can't help but give some sort of credit there.
24:19Obviously, at the end of the day, when you bet someone to win outright for a tournament and they finish second or
24:26third or T4 like you did at the Memorial, you don't get any benefits from there unless you're betting in the each way market or betting them elsewhere.
24:34But again, when I'm throwing out 22 to one, hoping to get that 22 to one payday and those second, third place
24:40finishes aren't going to get the job done here.
24:43But when you're consistently putting yourself in a position to do that, that shows a lot of upside and a lot of potential here for Sam Burns.
24:51And for me, the one thing that everyone is always going to love about Sam Burns is the putter.
24:56When looking at the way he fits this course for the putter, there is a significant teardrop between him and the second
25:03best putter for this course, which is primarily strokes game putting, putting on Bermuda surfaces and putting on fast surfaces.
25:09We talked about the weather a little bit. We talked about how these greens will likely get baked out.
25:14Spencer alluded to the green reconstructions last year that led to firm and fast conditions.
25:19I think that's going to play out more so here this year, even more than last year.
25:24And that's a spot where I think Sam Burns is going to potentially lap the field with that putting game.
25:30And then when you look at the next most important category for me for liking Sam Burns, and that's how he fits
25:36the course based on his approach play. And when you look at his last five events, this guy has been red hot on approach.
25:43And Sam Burns is someone who we've always known he can get the job done with the putter.
25:49Distance has never really been a major issue for Sam Burns, but the inconsistent iron play has sort of kept him in
25:55and out of these elite, I guess, marks of the golf industry, I suppose.
25:59But right now that is not an issue at all, and it's somewhere that he is currently excelling.
26:05So we're going to ride those hot approach play numbers here for Sam Burns.
26:09I think we can kind of put it in the bag again.
26:12Spencer and I talk about putting every single week and how you don't necessarily love to rely on someone like that.
26:18But Sam Burns is someone I feel comfortable in relying on him gaining strokes on the field with the putter.
26:24If you can do so with the approach play as well, I think he's a great chance to win this one.
26:31Speaking of someone playing his best golf at the right time over the last 16 rounds, Cam Young in the top 10
26:37in this field in terms of strokes gained T to green.
26:40What else has you gravitating towards this number 25 to 1, Spencer?
26:44I mean, I would throw away what he did last week and not look too much into it.
26:49He was one of the best ball strikers in that tournament.
26:52Couldn't make anything throughout four days there. I think it's just one of the things that happens in golf sometimes.
26:58And as Kyle has talked about, we are never going to be two people that are going to dive too heavily into some of those putting splits.
27:06And like to even just double down on what Kyle said about Sam Burns for a second, like he's the number three
27:13projected player in my model over the last 24 rounds for strokes gained T to green.
27:17So there's a lot more than just a putting return there.
27:21And I think that that's where Kyle's coming up with that answer.
27:24So it makes logical sense. I thought there was a lot to like about Cameron Young here.
27:29And one of the things I like to do is, is I always go back and see where I had players through past iterations of my model.
27:37Like you kind of talked about it at the beginning.
27:40Like when you asked the question of looking at past results or past situations.
27:44And I'm going to answer this like in a different way with a little bit of a different twist to this.
27:51Um, I think it matters how somebody was entering a tournament, maybe more so than how they, they end up producing in a particular event.
27:58So like for somebody like Cameron Young, we see him produce a top five last year.
28:03Well, where did he rank in my model? And one of the things I noticed is I didn't have them particularly high last year.
28:10So that was a spot where my model was incorrect.
28:13Cameron Young ended up overachieving the production that he put on the board.
28:16So the question that I ask myself with that is where should he land based off of where my model sits this year?
28:23Like, is it a fluke of why he produced that?
28:26Or do we actually have something to where we got a result from him when maybe he wasn't even the best course fit.
28:33And now all of a sudden, a year later, the metrics are pushing heavily in this direction.
28:38He's a top four win equity candidate for me during this event.
28:42He was outside of the top 20 last year.
28:44So I think it's the number one rank and weighted off the tee performance.
28:48A lot of this approach stuff is pushing heavily into his favor.
28:52Top seven weighted approach player in this field. And that includes being inside of the top 10 in pretty much every single
28:58key metric that I was looking for. Like one of the things that I ran, and I'll kick this to you, Kyle,
29:05ask you a question here because it really produces an interesting return here.
29:09I ran approach expectation on Zoysia when you end up finding the short grass and you have that sort of an ability to not be in the rough.
29:17Cameron Young is not the number one answer here.
29:20It got a really unique return. Tom Kim was number seven.
29:23Who do you think is the number one player in this tournament on approach on Zoysia?
29:28Oh, man. I think based on the question, I can't go Scotty Shuffler.
29:31So I will go with... It's somebody gross. I'll tell you that.
29:35It's Siwoo Kim level of gross. It's not Siwoo Kim.
29:38He's third. Is it Aaron Rye? Aaron Rye is fourth.
29:41That's a good guess. It's Patrick Cantlay was number one.
29:44Michael Thorbjornson is another name that I also really like this week that seems to be popping in a lot of areas.
29:50I actually did Mayo's podcast for the first time ever.
29:53And he asked me to give my three favorite plays on the board.
29:57And I represented the show well. I said Siwoo Kim, so I'm sure nothing can go wrong there.
30:02Thorbjornson was one of the other names I mentioned.
30:05And then Cam Young, if we circle back to this question of me having him as an outright.
30:10But I think there's a lot of value to be found, even if I'm not necessarily betting some of these guys top 20.
30:17Like I want to throw out Cantlay as a recommendation of at least somebody to consider in some marketing might not win the golf tournament.
30:24But I think there's a way to try to find him.
30:28Kyle talked about Thorbjornson. Like there are a lot of names on this slate.
30:32It's just I'm not going to have a super deep card.
30:35So, you know, two outrights for me, one matchup.
30:38But yeah, it starts with Cam Young. I don't know if you did it on purpose, Spencer, but it's a perfect tee
30:44up for nobody cares what you do historically, unless you're Hideki Matsuyama, who has the absolute best performance and track record here at TPC Southwind.
30:52He won the event in 2024. He finished 17th or better in all three of his playoff appearances here, was a runner up in 2021.
30:59And if you want to also bring in the recent form, he's not just living off that history.
31:04He comes into the playoffs with three straight top 10 finishes and five consecutive results of tied for 14th or better.
31:10So talk me through why this number is almost a 30 to one.
31:14It seems like given that the market's kind of thumbing its nose at Hideki here and not taking him as seriously, maybe as they should.
31:22Yeah, I certainly think that that's a good point for me when I was sort of looking into a little bit more
31:28on how the course is going to play and how I'm going to try to model this one, I didn't really see
31:35it as like being a, you know, a horse for the course type event where guys will typically carry over every single year.
31:41I do think there's some things that will pull you towards that direction.
31:45But overall, I think that there's a lot of potential variance in terms of the profile that we might see.
31:51But Hideki has been someone who's obviously crushed here, like you alluded to.
31:55But it certainly helps. I mean, in the course history metric that I have, he's number one and there's a big teardrop there.
32:02But for me, it comes down to the approach play recently.
32:05I think from what we've seen from Hideki, off the tee play and putting has been pretty significant struggles for him over the course of the season.
32:13But he's sort of turned the off the tee play around as well.
32:17Like you mentioned that five event stretch with T14 finishes are better, including, you know, three finishes, T7 or better in his last three starts.
32:24Off the tee play has been positive in that five event stretch.
32:28And it's also got the putter to be hot and for those five events as well.
32:32So I think it comes down to sort of needing obviously a hot putter week, which is kind of always the gist when you're betting Hideki.
32:40But if the off the tee play is going to continue to trend positively, we can rely on that approach play.
32:46It's going to be in the top 15 or so in this field.
32:50So I think a lot of things are going in a great direction for Hideki.
32:55And I was coming into a course where he's comfortable, where he's performed well in the past.
33:00So I think overall, it's just kind of a perfect storm to bet Hideki.
33:04I do think that if this was at a different course, 30 to one is probably not the number.
33:09He's probably even a little bit longer than that.
33:12So it does feel like maybe you're getting out of a bit of value because of that narrative.
33:17But also I think it certainly helps Hideki coming into this week, being in a spot that he's comfortable and that he's won before and shown success recently.
33:26All right. It's fitting that we close the show with a discussion of Siwoo Kim because he's been knocking on the door plenty of times this year.
33:34He's not gotten through, but there's plenty of reasons for optimism.
33:37If you want to look at a real fit signal for this particular course, he co-led after an opening round 62 here in 2022.
33:44So in terms of his play matching it, he also ranks seventh in this field in terms of strokes gained on approach.
33:50So he's got the pedigree for the course. He certainly has the strengths in his game that match up with it.
33:5735 to one, though. I mean, we can't leave it on the table.
34:00We were going to bet him no matter what.
34:03But give one reason for optimism. If people have a little Siwoo Kim fatigue and they want to be wooed here, no pun intended.
34:10Give us a reason, Spencer. God, I've given so many reasons throughout this show and none of them have come to fruition a single time.
34:17Here's what I will say. We talk about Hideki Matsuyama winning here.
34:21You can look at Will Zalatorris, who's won here.
34:24You can look at Lucas Glover. The one thing that those three players all have in common, extremely good ball strikers who struggle with the putter at times.
34:32And I think that there is a reason to believe that Siwoo on these small greens with the approach and off the
34:38T acumen that he brings to the table, that this is one of the better fits that we have seen for him throughout the entire year.
34:46And this is me betting him 10 to 15 times.
34:49It feels like to win a golf tournament. There are certainly other ways to consider backing him.
34:54We've talked quite a bit of times on this show, bet him as a top 10.
34:59I think he's come top 10, maybe 10 times throughout this year.
35:02Just hasn't been able to get himself across the finish line and that victory that we've been trying to chase.
35:08But look, I'm always going to trust the data.
35:11I think the numbers are really clean on him.
35:14I think there's a lot of reasons for optimism for why the game is moving in a direction for where he is close.
35:20We can talk about the putter for Hideki. We can talk about the putter for Siwoo.
35:25You have to make putts to win golf tournaments and Siwoo can struggle at times.
35:29He's 62nd in my model in weighted putting. That is where you could run through the seven stats that I have.
35:36Second, fourth, third, 18th, third, second. That 62nd is a glaring mark that you see with the putter.
35:41I just think that at this particular course with small greens, with the ability to separate with the ball striking, like this
35:47is something that I didn't even talk about at the very beginning of this show when talking about the course.
35:53If you look at the last 14 iterations of this tournament, almost 70% of the time, the person who's won this golf
36:00tournament is the one who led the tournament in strokes game tee to green.
36:04That's not with the putting return being included there.
36:07So Siwoo's tee to green game is second on tour.
36:10The only player who's better than him, Scotty Scheffler, who is the deserving favorite here and is somebody that I am definitely
36:16afraid that might be finally ready to get off the schneid and capture a title.
36:20But it goes a long way when you can give me that tee to green return.
36:25So I think the market's soft every single week.
36:28I find a way to back some semblance of him, Henley, Fleetwood.
36:31I pat myself on the back currently for not falling into the Fleetwood trap as we speak right now.
36:37My card still has room if I want to go down that route.
36:41But it's a lot of the same names that continue to pop in.
36:45And I think you're for the price at 35 to 1.
36:48I'm not going to be sitting on the sidelines on Sunday, even if it means I'm going to have a terrible Sunday watching the implosion.
36:55That'll do it for today's episode. Thanks for joining us here on the Action Network podcast.
37:00Be sure to check out actionnetwork.com, the Action app for all of our great golf betting and DFS content.
37:06And even better, sign up for Action Pro. Go to actionnetwork.com slash pro to take advantage of our offer.
37:11Throw in pod 20 for $20 off an annual subscription.
37:14You can find Spencer over on X at TFSports and Kyle at KMURR DFS.
37:18They're on the same handles on our free award-winning Action Network app.
37:22For Spencer Aguiar and Kyle Murray, I'm Mike Calabrese.
37:24Best of luck this week, and we'll see you here next time on the Action Network podcast.
37:29Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
37:37Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast, Hollywood Handbook.
37:41Each week, we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
37:48Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
37:54We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, Adam Scott, Danny McBride, Ben Stiller, and a lot of other big
38:00shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
38:03Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
38:08On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
38:12I can wait four hours for the next bus, or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
38:18I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
38:26I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
38:31Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
38:35I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
38:38You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
38:42Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
38:48You're not hired just to fill time and space.
38:50You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
38:58Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
39:06Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
39:09We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the
39:15site of a social experiment and fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
39:22Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
39:27Do you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
39:30We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
39:33The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
39:37I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
39:42I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
39:46Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
39:50And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
39:53Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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