2026 World Cup Best Bets | Thur 6/18 - Sun 6/21
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1 hr 17 min
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Jun 17, 2026
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Wed, June 17, 2026
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Episode Transcript
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3:36Nobody picks him up. Wide-eyed, thrilled, bemused. Happened. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
3:43I'm Mike Elbrese and I'm joined today by Daniele Fisichella and Benjamin Leander.
3:47And we're looking through the second matches in groups A through F.
3:52These matches will be played Thursday through Saturday. This week, 12 matches in total.
3:57But before we hop into all that, I have to ask the both of you.
4:02What has been the most memorable element moment of the World Cup thus far for you?
4:08You go in any direction with this. You could go with the internet celebrity gained by that German Freddy, Columbus-ing his way
4:16through the United States, enjoying our stadiums, our Buc-ee's, our Waffle House is our most sacred of places here in the States.
4:23Or you go with like a few of the shocking results.
4:27Cape Verde Islands playing Spain to a scoreless draw.
4:31Benjamin, you're new to our series here. So let me bring you in first.
4:36Loft the cross over to you. Play it however you want.
4:39What has been the most memorable element of the World Cup to you thus far?
4:45I would go actually with the referees. I'm a former referee in Danish elite football.
4:50Had actually planned to attend the World Cup as an active referee here in 2026, but retired nine years ago.
4:57So that dream collapsed rather quickly. But being used to the standards in Premier League, even in the MLS, the few matches
5:05that I watch, I've been pretty satisfied with the level from the referees so far.
5:10It's been terrific to see what two, three, even four years of preparation can do, aligning the referees for a pretty similar match official duty.
5:19So, so far, no jinx. I think the referees has been excellent so far.
5:24This is a very rare development, at least here by Action Network standards.
5:29Generally, we are dumping on the referees. Daniele first, do you agree that it's been well officiated thus far?
5:36And then take us in the direction that you'd like to in terms of an overall narrative from the 2026 World Cup.
5:44I 100% agree with Benjamin. I think it's been officiated extremely well.
5:48And also the VAR is working really, really well after the first week.
5:52It doesn't take too long. The graphics are great.
5:56So yeah, long in my continuing. Hopefully we can see it in European football very soon.
6:01For me, the highlights, apart from the results, which we all know, of course, are the stadiums, are the facilities, the stadiums in the US.
6:10I never quite appreciated how magnificent and architectonically diverse are.
6:14They're all very different from each other. There are huge crowds.
6:18Yes, the tickets crossed a pretty penny, but that's a different question here.
6:22But yeah, in terms of infrastructure, US, you have delivered.
6:26Well, I have no doubts about it, but congratulations to you.
6:30All right, let's jump into the matches here. Thursday, June 18th, Czechia minus 135 as a favorite against South Africa.
6:37Do or die time for both of these squads looking to recover from opening setbacks.
6:42Czechia showed up with, you know, at least from their set piece perspective, just look at that header, a beautiful goal from Krejci.
6:51But their open play defense was exploited repeatedly against Korea and South Africa had an even more difficult time, you know, losing
6:58two nil to Mexico, drawing a pair of red cards as well.
7:03Daniele, where do you start with this handicap for two teams playing in desperation mode?
7:08Well, I started by sparing a thought for the Nigerians who were knocked out by the Sud African.
7:14And they thought, how did they actually get out against this lot after the first game?
7:20South Africa were poor against Mexico. They only had 0.07 xg, both shots from outside the box.
7:26But Czechia, on the other hand, were not much better against the South Koreans.
7:31Well, we could rename them Throw In's FC, Set Pieces FC, because they produce shots only from set pieces, as they've done in the European qualifiers.
7:40They are a very rigid team. They're a very tall team, which is going to play against one of the shortest teams at the World Cup.
7:50So expect Czech Republic to pile up the pressures, to have few headers and to win few duels.
7:56Can they actually score again? We'll see. They only had 19 shots in three competitive games in 2026.
8:03Czech Republic, again, they went to the World Cup thanks to two penalty shootouts.
8:08They were pretty lucky. Look, I haven't got a pick here, but if we look at our statistical model, Betsy, he projects
8:15there is a 26.3 chance of a draw. Only Turkey against Paraguay has a higher chance of draws among all the match day two games.
8:24Normally, when the teams are scared to win, probably they end up with the only results that doesn't favour them, which could
8:32be really a draw or a low-scoring game here for this opening match of match day two.
8:38Now, Benjamin, you set the table, the very first question, talking about the officiating, your history as a referee.
8:45So I'm not all that surprised to see that you're going in that direction, a market as it relates to cards here.
8:53Walk me through it. Yeah, firstly, I have to say that I'm sitting here pretty traumatized about Denmark being knocked out to this Czech team.
9:02The Czech Republic had a 23% possession against Denmark, scored from a set piece, a magnificent strike from Sulk.
9:09But really, really disappointed to see this Czech team going to the World Cup and Denmark sitting on the couch, just to
9:16relive that trauma once again with Denmark not going to the World Cup.
9:21FIFA has made a very, very interesting assignment for this game, making a world history premiere on a pure female referee team
9:29with head referee and assistants Tori Penso from the stage, probably recognized by several MLS fans, I guess, is the head referee of this match.
9:38I think it's an unsensitive appointment from FIFA. This is a high risk match.
9:43You said it. It's do or die for these teams.
9:46And there might be a thing going about. It's more being avoid rather than achieve.
9:52But the loser of this match will probably be going home, especially if Mexico and Korea are drawing in the other match.
9:59So I think this will be tense. We look into two teams who played rather fast paced matches in round one, South
10:07Africa against Mexico, but definitely also the Czech Republic against Korea.
10:11So I think this will be end to end stuff between South Africa and the Czechs.
10:17I see lots of counterattacks. I see them stopped.
10:20I see unsporting behavior. I see time wasting from the team that is in the lead.
10:26And then Penso, on the other hand, I mean, a capable MLS referee.
10:31But in terms of leading the game, being the leader in charge, her only tool in the box is to show a card.
10:39I've seen some highlights from her national team games in the in the Concacaf Nations League and in the World Cup qualifiers.
10:47Cards all over even easy matches being won by seven goals.
10:50Bermuda against Curacao. She had five bookings in that match.
10:54And I just see here that that she's going to really have a tough time managing this game.
11:00We will have one team that will probably be going home.
11:04The Czechs will have a tough time living with a draw.
11:08That will mean they are obliged to beat Mexico in the last game to obtain these four points that would give them a chance for for advance.
11:18So I really think the best bet here would be cards and lots of them.
11:23We see over 3.5 bookings priced at around minus 152 and maybe even better over four and a half card priced at plus 140.
11:32Next up, Switzerland against Bosnia, the Swiss minus 185 as a favorite.
11:36Let's start with this. What the hell was that Swiss?
11:40Yes, Switzerland looked completely flat against a highly limited Qatar side, failing to convert enough chances to justify their heavy status heading into that match.
11:49Bosnia, by the way, a one one draw against the Canadians.
11:52Totally different narrative. Happy to get the draw in that spot, having a lead at one point.
11:59Benjamin, let me ask you this. Have your expectations changed for the Bosnians coming off of that?
12:05Or do you think this parade of draws will just continue?
12:09Yes, six games in a row drawing and they will obviously come out for the draw against Switzerland, meaning that they will
12:16have the last game against Qatar, despite their surprising point against Switzerland will be the easiest game on paper for the Bosnian team.
12:25Also priced at rather big favorite against this Qatar team round minus 167 before the third round kicks off.
12:31I mean, the Bosnians, I had rather low expectations for this team pre tournament.
12:36Remember that for the European 24 qualification for the European championships, they lost five out of six games against Slovakia, Iceland and Luxembourg.
12:45I mean, that's teams from a European standard is not that much better than it seems like Curaçao and even Qatar.
12:52I'm playing some experienced guys in Curaçao and Kolasinac, but I mean, still a team that I wouldn't rate among the maybe even 16 best teams in Europe.
13:02So no doubt that the Bosnians will come out defensively here and look for a rather valuable point.
13:08Daniele, when you look at this match, you're targeting the total.
13:12Any fear that Switzerland is going to finally put it together and explode on the offensive end?
13:18Or do you think in this regard, it was more of a preview of what's to come for them through the rest of the group stage?
13:28No, Mike, because I think for Switzerland things are going to get tougher.
13:32They're not going to play anyone as weak as Qatar in this World Cup.
13:37Yes, they had 26 shots against Qatar. They underperformed the XG massively.
13:42They recorded the 3.2 XG. But this is an all European tie.
13:46They play another European nation. Therefore, I think it's going to be much, much tighter.
13:51By the way, there are only four all European ties in these group stages.
13:56The first one is England-Croatia. And I think with all of them, we're going to see probably very low goals.
14:03Teams are much more structured defensively. And you know, Qatar, they did what they can.
14:09But really, defensively, the distances were not quite there.
14:12Switzerland, yes, they should score more. But they normally don't score many goals anyway.
14:17They've only scored more than two goals since 2024 against Sweden.
14:21But that was the Sweden before Graham Potter. Slovenia and Kosovo.
14:25So they're not a high-scoring team by any stretch of imagination.
14:29And as Benjamin remembered correctly, all the last six draws of Bosnia, they've all been under 2.5 goals.
14:35They are unbeaten in nine games. If Bosnia wins this game, it's not going to be a goal fest.
14:42Because again, they are not a high-scoring side either.
14:45So I think Switzerland are rightly the favorites. By the way, the last team to beat Bosnia was Austria 2-1 in November 2025.
14:53Again, not a high-scoring game there. So I think this is going to be an under 2.5 goals, which pays minus 133.
15:01It could be a narrow win for Switzerland. Maybe Switzerland wins 2-0, a 2-0, a 1-0 win.
15:07But yeah, I don't really see here to see plenty of goal action, to be fair.
15:13Through multiple episodes, we've talked about Qatar more than I anticipated, which brings us right to their next match against Canada.
15:20The Canadians minus 400 here. Even without Alphonso Davies, the Canadians still found a way to come from behind, draw even at 1-1.
15:28However, and this could just be my perspective on it, I think this price is a bit rich for the Canucks in this spot.
15:37And I know that, Benjamin, you're bringing a prop bet to the table.
15:42But could you just first address that in terms of playing a side in this one?
15:47Do you think minus 400 is properly priced? Or do you think there's a bit of an over-leaning in the market as it relates to the Canadian side?
15:57I fully agree on that point of view. We see a lot of giant favorites in this tournament so far that have struggled.
16:06Obviously, Spain against Cap Verde, but also a team like Belgium against Egypt.
16:10And Canada still is on the rise. They are not an established soccer nation when we're looking at a World Cup.
16:18They did good in 2022 in Qatar in a tough group.
16:22But I still think that the current prices on Canada are extremely low.
16:26Obviously, also affected by the fact that they are the host nation.
16:30We see the host nations from time to time being priced rather low.
16:35So obviously, very hard to look in the direction of the Canadians here.
16:40But also, looking into the performance of Qatar against Switzerland, it didn't merit the point they got.
16:46But they've dodged a bullet. They got a point.
16:49But obviously, the market are also very negative towards Qatar in terms of strength at the Qatar team.
16:55In our preview series, we talked a bit about the home pitch advantage for the Americans, for the Mexicans, for the Canadians.
17:03Daniele, in this particular match, they're playing in Vancouver.
17:06Does that come into your handicap at all? I know that you don't have an official play on this match, but was
17:14that something that you considered one way or another?
17:18Absolutely. Absolutely. Because there is a home advantage. This is a historic chance for Canada to win their first ever game at the World Cup in an attempt.
17:28So they're not going to get it any easier than that really.
17:32And they should take advantage of this. Yes, Qatar were resolute in the end.
17:37They snatched the point. But if it wasn't for the goalkeeper and for Switzerland missing a lot of chances, they should have lost by three or four goals.
17:47Now, Canada have got a great incentive of finishing top of the group because if they do finish top of the group,
17:55they'll play the round of 32 at home in Vancouver and potentially also the round of 16.
18:01Finish second and third, and they are all around North America, Mexico, US.
18:05Basically, they lose their home advantage. And Canada are a good side.
18:10They are unbeaten in nine games. They also have a little bit of depth really because Larine and Promise David, when they came on, they did well.
18:19So I think here Jesse Marsh has got a really, really good chance.
18:24But Qatar are going to sit back, are going to defend.
18:28Against Switzerland, they allowed an average of 34.7 passes per defensive action.
18:32So basically, they were not pressing at all. Only Curaçao allowed more passes.
18:37Sorry, only Cap Verde against Spain, but that's understandable.
18:40So I think they're going to do exactly the same.
18:43So Canada are going to try to win the ball up high and pile on pressure.
18:49But again, probably a low scoring game as well.
18:52Don't expect fireworks because Canada will be more than happy to win one nil and get those historic three points on the board.
19:01Benjamin, you're bringing a corners prop to the table here between Canada and Qatar.
19:06And when you look at it, it being priced at even money, is that something that from a price perspective drew you there first?
19:14Or in terms of the overall narrative of the match, you always anticipated that Canada was going to get a lot of opportunities on those set pieces?
19:24Definitely the last option. Canada has had whopping 45 corners in five matches played in 2026, even against better opposition in Uzbekistan, Iceland, Tunisia, Ireland and Bosnia.
19:33I expect to see a very similar match picture from looking against the Qatar game versus Switzerland.
19:39Qatar only 25% possession in the first half, somehow managed to get three corners against Switzerland's only four.
19:46Canada on the other page were dominant against Bosnia.
19:49I know they trailed after 20 minutes, which obviously contributed to both possession and corners.
19:54But they had nine against Bosnia in the first half, zero in the second half, curiously.
20:00But I think that the Qatar will look for the single point here, will stay down even obviously at nil-nil, but maybe even at Canada leading one nil.
20:10I don't think we'll see them go that much forward.
20:14So Canada to have another corner blast, just like in the last five games, covering this over seven and a half total should be done very easy.
20:23Let's turn to another host nation, Mexico at even money to beat the South Koreans in Guadalajara.
20:29From an altitude standpoint, it's still significant, but it is about a 2,000 foot drop from Estadio Azteca to the pitch here in Guadalajara.
20:38So just something to consider. The Mexicans look the part of a host nation who had aspirations of making a deep run in this tournament.
20:47They win two nil in their opener. Yet this is still priced as a coin flip.
20:52And I think that's a hat tip to the excellence shown by the Koreans, particularly in transition in their opener.
21:00So which side are you going with here, Daniele?
21:03Actually, I'm going for a slight surprise and I'm going to go with South Korea double chance.
21:09So South Korea to avoid the defeat and to boost the price, a goal range between one and four.
21:16So not a nil-nil, not an extremely high scoring game.
21:19But if you finish, for example, 2-2, which I think is unlikely, the price is plus 140.
21:25Look, Mexico, we know they are strong at home.
21:28No defeats in the last 21 games played in Mexico.
21:32That stretches back to 2020, including the friendly. However, most of the games have been played in Mexico City.
21:39This one is in Zapopan. The last time they played here was in 2025.
21:44The 1-1 against Ecuador. And Ian earlier, they beat 2-0 the US.
21:48Bada was a friendly. Both were friendly. So they're not used to play there.
21:53We're not saying that home advantage goes out of the way, but that's not the Azteca.
21:59And I think, technically speaking, on paper, I think South Korea are the most skilled side here in terms of passing, in terms of ball movement.
22:08They were impressive against the Czech Republic. They had 62% possession, completed 468 passes, 25 passes build up, leading to Wang Inbon's goal.
22:16Song Yun-min missed a couple of goals, 0.65 xG for him, but still, I think he is a threat.
22:23And Mexico, yes, they did well. They played well.
22:26The host, they only failed to score once in the last nine games.
22:31But let's see how they fare against a team that plays the football from this century, rather than South Africa.
22:38Because, you know, I think it's all about the opposition, really.
22:42And I do think that, although both would be very happy, probably, to avoid defeat, South Korea, I think here, look, the value.
22:50I think they got more experience. They got players who play all across Europe.
22:55So yeah, I'm going to go for South Korea to avoid defeat.
22:59Double chance. Goals range 1 to 4 or plus 140.
23:03Before we turn the page to Friday, Benjamin, any thoughts on Daniele's play?
23:08And perhaps why, you know, you're sitting this one out.
23:11It's important with so many matches to keep your powder dry, to pick your spots.
23:16In some cases, it's as simple as you think that the market is well calibrated and there's not much value on the board.
23:25But in terms of Daniele's play, what are your thoughts?
23:28I like it. Also looking at actually the last four occasions that Mexico faced the team from the Asian Confederation, it ended
23:36in the draw and all four times rather different scorelines.
23:400-0 against Japan, 2-2 against South Korea about half a year ago.
23:44And then in 2023, they draw 2-2 against Australia and 3-3 against Uzbekistan.
23:49I think a factor here is that they might play after the result of the Czech Republic against South Africa, which will
23:56be played before the match in Mexico. There might be a reason for both teams to settle for a draw here.
24:04If there is a winner in the match between Czech Republic and the South Africans, it will also affect the way that
24:12either team will come out for this match. So I think we'll have to know the result of the Czechs against the
24:20South Africans before we can find any proper bet here.
24:23But if I have to pick a side, I completely agree that the Koreans is the way to look.
24:30When Mexico played them about half a year ago, they were priced a bit higher than now, actually.
24:36So I like the fact that we get an even better price on a South Korean team that performed very well in the first match.
24:45To view the U.S. men's national team's dominant 4-1 opener, at least through the lens of the American media, this team is now a juggernaut.
24:54Anyone who didn't play them to win the World Cup has missed their chance.
24:59We're entering a golden era of U.S. footy. Blah, blah, blah.
25:03But you could argue that the Aussies dominance of Turkey A was just as surprising.
25:08So what came as a bigger surprise to you, Benjamin, in the first match for both of these sides?
25:15From a European point of view, having followed Turkey over almost two decades, we all know that they are actually a bang or bust.
25:24It can be anything with Turkey. They are really a moody team playing either fantastic or playing horribly.
25:30And it was the last option that we viewed against Australia, taking terrible offensive choices, in my opinion, 16 shots from outside the box.
25:39And just having 1.5 expected goals on 30 shots, averaging 0.05 per shot, almost half of what you expect from a normal shot on approximately 0.10 expected goals.
25:49I'm having a hard time figuring that Turkey can be so bad once again.
25:54At the same time, we also saw a Paraguay team proving that the home advantage in South America is huge.
26:01We see lots of these teams faring very well on home soil.
26:05But when they come to playing matches on away soil, timers are getting much tougher.
26:10So I would say I was surprised with Australia that they did so well.
26:15I wasn't surprised that Paraguay wouldn't do very well.
26:19But obviously, hats off to the United States for playing a terrific first half.
26:24Must also say that everything they touched turned into gold in a very, very impressive first 45 minutes.
26:30Daniele, when we look at the Americans coming into this match played in Seattle, Washington, it's a limited sample size.
26:37And in short order, we've gone from kind of a national nervousness about the team, about the expectations, how all the pieces fit together to now an overconfidence.
26:47So are you still buying on them? And if so, how are you attacking the market?
26:53I like the fact that they started the game on the right foot from the off against Paraguay.
26:59They were favorites and they demonstrated it. I mean, in the first half, they were impressive.
27:05I like the fact that they play with a back four, which I think suits them really well and also gives Pulisic,
27:13the best player, the opportunity to play in his natural position wide on the left.
27:18Why the hell has Milan playing on the right hand side and cutting in?
27:23I still don't understand it. But I think then you can explain why he hasn't scored for Milan in 2026.
27:30They dictated the possession, 71 percent possession in the first half, completely 76 percent of passes.
27:36And then I believe they scored three goals in the first half, which nobody has done so far in this World Cup.
27:44Well, only Germany has done it. But yeah, 3-0 was the biggest score line in the first half.
27:50So now it's about living up to the expectations.
27:53Normally, the second game, it's harder because everyone expects you to do exactly the same.
27:59And now they face an Australian side who athletically are going to match them.
28:04The Australians, we know them. They are athletes. You know, they are a sporting nation, probably as much as the US, you know.
28:12Big, tall guys. They can run fast. Australia hasn't changed in the last 20 years that I watched them since goose-hitting.
28:19They are basically the same team. Compact, resolute. They play with a low block.
28:24The difference these times is that up front, they got two quicker strikers than in the past.
28:30Irakunda and Traore, which obviously offer much more on the counter-attack than perhaps previous generations of Australian strikers didn't offer.
28:38So that's where the threat could come. But I think, you know, for the US, this is another great opportunity to take three points.
28:46Again, take first spot, keep playing at home, which is going to be really important in the knockout stages.
28:53For me, it's not going to be probably a high-scoring game because I think Australia can defend better than Paraguay.
29:00But USA scored in the first half in seven of the last eight games.
29:05Therefore, that's how Pochettino wants them to play. And they also scored in the first half when they beat Australia in a friendly in October 2025.
29:14So I'm going to go with an Asian handicap, minus 0.25, minus 130.
29:19If you don't know what the Asian handicap means, well, go and watch the video that Sam has recorded with us a
29:27few weeks ago, which explains it perfectly. But again, in simple terms, if the US win the first half, you win the bet.
29:35If they draw the first half, you only lose half a stake.
29:39That's a bit of window dressing here to finish for the full match, the USA minus 170 and for a full match
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31:15We turn now to Scotland and Morocco. The Moroccans minus 145 here.
31:20Scotland may have won 1-0 over Haiti, but for the math to work for them to be one of those third place
31:28teams to advance in the group, they absolutely needed a larger margin than that.
31:33And then on the other side, you have Morocco, who is modestly priced in this spot, despite, you know, really flummoxing the Brazilian attack, making them look mortal.
31:43So, at least in my opinion, I think this one is mispriced.
31:47If I was hanging a number, I would go north of minus 200.
31:51Daniele, do you agree with that assessment? And could you explain perhaps why this is a little bit tighter in the market right now?
32:00If there's any noise in there, if you expect any movements as we get closer to match day?
32:06Because I think the market perhaps overreacted for Morocco's performance against Scotland.
32:11And then when Scotland failed to deliver against Tahiti, who matched their XG, I would say probably that's why there is a bit of scepticism.
32:20But Scotland is a very resolute team that can stifle you as well.
32:24However, Morocco, if they do apply the same intensity and they come out flying as they did against Brazil, I think they're
32:32going to put a lot of pressure on Scotland.
32:35Scotland are in a difficult situation because if they lose both games, even by one goal difference, they pack the bags, they
32:43go home with a minus one goal difference and a fair play.
32:47You basically are going home. This is a high scoring World Cup.
32:52Anybody in the top 100 of the FIFA ranking can score a goal.
32:56So you need to score goals. Therefore, Scotland must avoid defeat.
33:00I think here they're going to set up more defensively.
33:04I think they're going to play only with one striker up front, with Shankland or maybe with Che Adams, with Gannon Doak on the flank.
33:13And for me, Morocco here are favourites, but perhaps not as favourites.
33:17Morocco to score the first goal is a good prize.
33:21So Morocco to take the lead and under 3.5 goals in the match, that brings it pretty much about even minus 105.
33:28Scotland. Scotland conceded a first half goal in two of the last four against Curaçao and Ivory Coast, and they won 4-0 against Bolivia.
33:37But that was a game played outside of Bolivia and we know that Bolivia are not very good when they don't play at home.
33:46So again, I think Morocco takes the lead under 3.5 goals in the match because Morocco, again, I don't mean they are that high scoring anyway, minus 105.
33:55Now, Morocco held Brazil to just 1.26 expected goals and you expect that to continue here, Benjamin.
34:02Walk me through how you're going through that thought process and how it relates to the exact bet that you're placing.
34:09Yeah, I mean, market has been overly positive towards Morocco after the Brazil match.
34:14Pre-tournament, Morocco started at plus 100 against the Scots and now that prize has dropped rather deep, around 30 points.
34:21So I think that I was disappointed with Scotland.
34:24Of course, Haiti did well. They did better than expected.
34:28I didn't have big expectations for the Haiti team.
34:31They are one of two teams together with Curaçao who enjoyed artificial turf in their qualification home matches.
34:38Obviously, a huge asset for these teams now coming for obviously good grass pitches, but it is a different surface.
34:45I think Scotland showed why they were third in their qualification group behind Greece.
34:50And yes, you guessed it, Denmark, who couldn't beat Scotland in two matches drawing nil-nil at home in Copenhagen, where Scotland had
34:58absolutely nothing and then winning 4-2 in Scotland, thanks to a very doubtful Danish red card midways through the second half.
35:05The Scots had two shots in the last hour of play against Haiti.
35:10I think they really lack good offensive options. Respect to John McGinn and to Scott McTominay, I don't see any of these
35:17guys as natural goal scorers, despite McTominay obviously having a more offensive role in Napoli at club stage.
35:24But this is a different competition. This is national team.
35:27And I think they are heavily relying on moments of brilliance from these two guys.
35:33And I'm having a tough time seeing them challenge the Moroccan defense.
35:3733 matches in a row undefeated from Morocco in ordinary playing time.
35:4124 clean sheets in that span. I know they're not facing very tough opposition when they're playing at the African continent, but
35:49the Scots are not a big team. And I really think it's not a coincidence that Morocco were drawing against Brazil.
35:57They haven't raced to seventh in the world for no reason.
36:01So I really think that the best option here, Morocco, would probably take a draw in terms of having Haiti in the last game.
36:09If they get up front 1-0, I think we'll see stern defensive performance from the North Africans.
36:15And I really, really like Scotland not to score here at prices just north of plus 100.
36:21We turn now to Philadelphia for Brazil against this Haitian team that we just discussed.
36:27Brazil minus 1,000 as a favorite. Neither of you have a play on this match.
36:32And I have to imagine there's a little bit of skepticism.
36:36Some of the big favorites in this tournament have not delivered thus far.
36:41There was a bet placed for a million dollars for the Spanish national team to defeat Cape Verde Islands.
36:47And that got flushed right down the toilet. So perhaps people were not racing to the window to all of a sudden
36:55start laying these huge numbers or to get into some of those specialty markets where you're predicting the outcome.
37:02Or perhaps to say, you know, winning 2-0, 3-0, anything like that.
37:06Let me zoom out for a moment. Can the Haitians muck this match up and frustrate the Brazilians and find any way to approach a draw?
37:15Because it's also priced at 10 to 1. So, Daniele, let me start there.
37:20In terms of a value play, I'm twisting your arm.
37:24If you had a lean anyway, would you go Brazilians to win outright?
37:29Or is the draw interesting? No, the draw for me is not interesting for how underwhelming Brazil have been in the first game.
37:37They still managed not to lose it. A game where they were second best.
37:42And I think this is a quality for a team.
37:45If he's not today, at least try to not get beaten.
37:49I think that was Carlo Ancelotti's textbook. And he's going to sort them out.
37:54I think he's going to make some changes. He's going to get probably rid of Casemiro.
38:00He's going to change the defense a little bit.
38:03Maybe Rafinha is going to be given a little bit more freedom rather than being relegated on the wings.
38:10And they still have plenty of quality up front.
38:13So, I don't think that is the ultimate Brazil we've seen.
38:17So, the value here should be both teams to score.
38:21But Brazil are going to keep the ball much better than what Scotland did.
38:26And if Brazil are going to take the lead, I don't mean they're going to retract back and be desperate for the win as much as Scotland were.
38:36Remember, Scotland hadn't won a World Cup game since 1990.
38:39So, I think it matters much more to them.
38:42Brazil are more used to this. Haiti, yes, had 15 shots against Scotland.
38:47But only two were on target. Betsy, our model project, Haiti only to score 0.55 goals.
38:53I think it's one you should stay away because really there is no value.
38:58They both tend to score. I think it's way too risky for me.
39:02Now, Benjamin, in American football, one thing that the coaching staffs, the players, they're always obsessed with film.
39:09They want to break down every single play. And one of the expressions is that your film's never as good or as
39:17bad as you think it's going to be. And when it comes to the Brazilians, yes, it was an underwhelming performance.
39:24And I agree with Daniele that they were second best against the Moroccans.
39:29Yet, they still were able to battle through and to reach a draw.
39:33Do you think that is going to lend itself to them playing some of their most aggressive and best soccer early in this match?
39:42And if so, any value in a first half play on them?
39:46I share the opinion about the Brazilian team. We must remember that this Moroccan team was no way a walkover for Brazil.
39:54It was a group final already in match one.
39:57And we just see many of these games play out in a draw.
40:02We saw it as well in Belgium against Egypt, a similar favorite role for Belgium.
40:07So they did play an even worse match than Brazil did against Morocco.
40:12I think what lacks under Carlo Ancelotti is a defensive core.
40:16They haven't impressed me at all, conceding in six matches in a row now among these two against Panama, which should be
40:24at least same strength as the Haitians. It's hard to tell whether this will be dominance from minute one.
40:30I remember Brazil being similar favorites in Russia in 2018 against a CONCACAF Costa Rican team, where Brazil scored in the first
40:38and third added minute in the second half, taking a narrow 2-0 win.
40:43It could be this time. I also wanted to look at both the score option, but just like Daniele, I think it's too short, priced around plus 160.
40:53I would have hoped for maybe prices closer to plus 200 if I was to bet on a very entertaining match with both sides scoring goals here.
41:02But I think we'll see Brazil winning 3-1 here.
41:06They'll get the win they need. They'll get some goal difference to take with them for the group victory.
41:12And then it's just all about Scotland in match three.
41:16Let's crisscross the country from Philadelphia to the Bay Area on the West Coast, Santa Clara, California, the host of Turkey A against Paraguay.
41:25Another coin flip match, both clubs reeling after multi-goal defeats in their openers.
41:29Turkey A looked particularly toothless offensively, which we've discussed, against Australia.
41:33But Paraguay's defense was shredded by the U.S. men's national team, making this a must win for both.
41:40Benjamin, when you look at the boom or bust nature, your words, talking about Turkey A, what do you think happens in this match?
41:48And is there multiple markets and perhaps some specialty exotic markets as it relates to the officiating that you think are undervalued?
41:56Yeah, once again, we have this scenario where the do or die nations will play in Group A.
42:02They play first and here they play second. Paraguay and Turkey will know the results of USA and Paraguay.
42:09If USA and Paraguay draws, then what will happen if Paraguay and Turkey draws?
42:14Then we have this crazy scenario that Turkey will beat the United States in the last match and Paraguay will beat Australia.
42:22Not at all completely impossible for this to happen.
42:25Both Turkey and Paraguay will be the favorites in round three.
42:29And then we will have all four teams on four points, which happened at the Euro 2024 group, where Romania, Ukraine, Belgium
42:37and Slovakia all ended on four points after three matches.
42:40So again, I think this will have a theme with avoiding instead of achieving.
42:45I really like cards here again. We don't have the referee assignment yet, but it is two explosive nations.
42:52We saw Paraguay very ill-disciplined against USA taking five bookings.
42:56We know Turkey also a lot of tempers that can flare from Southern European mentality.
43:01And if we have a winner here with 10, 15 minutes to play, I think we can see frustrations taking over.
43:09So a red card being priced early market at plus 275 should be really interesting.
43:14Daniele, two teams, as we mentioned, in this do or die format, needing to really turn the screws on to try and
43:22break through and fix all the mistakes from their opening match.
43:26It's a tall task. It's a quick turnaround. Emotionally, it's difficult to get a feel for these two teams.
43:33But if you had to speculate as to which one can look past the opening issues on the gaff, who would you go with?
43:41I would go for Turkey if they become a little bit more consistent.
43:46Because as we mentioned before, they had 16 shots outside the box.
43:50They had almost 30 shots, but a very low XG.
43:54So they took a lot of chances from very, very difficult position.
43:58The talent is there. The Gouler, Canary Lidz, Akhtur Koglu.
44:01They need to be more consistent, really. And, yeah, take the chances or create better chances.
44:07But, yeah, I agree with Benjamin. This is going to be nervy.
44:11In World Cup qualifiers, Turkey had 20 yellow cards, which is the fifth highest record in UEFA.
44:17Only committed 9.3 fouls per game. And if you look at Paraguay, they averaged 13.7 fouls per match during the Commonwealth, which is 18 games.
44:26Second highest record. So that's a good sample already of how the team they play.
44:32They're going to be aggressive. Paraguay has to be aggressive.
44:35You cannot be less aggressive than what you've been against the U.S.
44:40So they need to step up. But, yeah, if you need to pick a winner here, it could be a nervy Turkey win, perhaps.
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48:11Saturday, June 20th, let's start with the Netherlands minus 150 against Sweden.
48:15Sweden was absolutely electric with five goals against Tunisia and one of the most surprising offensive explosions of the openers while the
48:23Netherlands dropped to a 2-2 draw against Japan. I guess, are the Swedes more dangerous than their odds would suggest here?
48:30In this case, Daniele, you believe that both teams have an opportunity to see some success at least from their attack.
48:38This is an interesting one because the option both teams to score yes and no are priced exactly the same.
48:45And I think then when you look at it, you think, how come?
48:50Because there have been four goals in the Netherlands game and six goals in the Sweden game.
48:56So the combined total is 10. Well, Sweden scored with three shots from outside the box.
49:02Netherlands-Japan was nil-nil about time. So I think here there is some margin to go either way.
49:08I'm going to go both teams to score yes, by the way, which is minus 110.
49:13I like it because it's an all-European affair against two teams that normally are renowned for scoring.
49:19You know, when you have on the pitch players like Isaac Gjokares for the Swedes and then, of course, Gakpo, Malen, still
49:27Memphis Depay, who can still give you 25 minutes of good quality, you could see goals.
49:33And because these are an all-European ties, if you look at the stats of these teams when they played other European nations
49:41in the qualifiers, the Netherlands scored 3.4 goals per game.
49:44Sweden scored 1.3 but conceded 1.9 per game in the European qualifiers when they were dreadful, by the way.
49:51But now under Graham Potter, they have improved a lot.
49:55And also, they are no longer that defensive unit that they used to be.
50:00With Graham Potter, they actually go and play football.
50:03But, you know, when you look also at the both teams to score, seven consecutive games for Sweden have been both teams to score.
50:11But Sweden have also conceded in 12 consecutive matches.
50:15Only one clean sheet in the past seven games for the Netherlands against Lithuania.
50:20So, I think you can see that both teams have got vulnerability.
50:24For me, for Netherlands, the biggest problem is the manager and the substitutions.
50:28Because as soon as he started making changes against Japan, they got worse and worse and worse.
50:35If he sticks to his guns and if he sticks to the 4-3-3, a bit like Dick Advocat has done with Kurasawa.
50:42So, I think Netherlands are going to get much more joy.
50:46Both teams to score for me. Yes, minus 111.
50:50It's an interesting point that Daniele just brought up, Benjamin, in terms of the managerial decisions as the match unfolds.
50:57And that actually presents an opportunity to hop in from a live betting perspective if you don't like the new chemistry that's out on the pitch.
51:06Is there an opportunity that you have in your minds if the game script starts playing out in a certain way that you do want to jump in?
51:16Because I know that you don't have a pre-bet or pre-match bet on this one.
51:21I fully agree. If I had to pick, I would go for both teams to score as well.
51:28Daniele said that Sweden had the both teams to score option fulfilled in the last seven games, which is, curiously enough, the
51:35seven games that Graham Potter has been in charge.
51:39At the same time, I'm surprised both with the Netherlands' favorite odds here, along with the market considering it pretty even whether
51:47we will get both teams to score or not.
51:50Because the Netherlands are definitely no Fort Knox defensively.
51:53Six clean sheets in the last 23. And half of these clean sheets has been in two matches against Malta and once again Lithuania.
52:01I'm not seeing any big leaders in front of Virgil van Dijk, obviously the MVP of this Dutch team.
52:08But I mean, I'm having a hard time looking at the decisions made by Ronald Koeman and don't really see that they're
52:16fulfilling their full potential playing under Koeman as it is right now.
52:20So I like Sweden's chances here. I could consider a bet builder taking Sweden plus 1.5 on the Asian handicap, either taking
52:28a point or losing by a maximum one goal.
52:31And then at the same time, both teams to score would be priced around plus 140.
52:37But I like the normal both to score odds as well.
52:41Of course, looking into a narrow 2-1 win for the Netherlands' worst case.
52:46We're deeper in our match here between Benjamin and Daniele, but the first deep cut American reference goes to Benjamin Fort Knox.
52:54So Daniele, you're going to need to dig deep here in the final third of the show to try to equalize.
53:01Speaking of the World Cup, it can be difficult for our American listeners involved to really understand the countries, the players, the markets.
53:09They may not be all that familiar with every single element.
53:13That can make finding the bets that they want to make difficult.
53:17Fortunately, the Playbook bot is the answer. In the Action Network app or over on Twitter X, just ask Playbook to build
53:25you a bet slip or send in a screenshot of a bet slip and give you a link that instantly builds that
53:33bet in the Sportsbook app of your choice. You can comparison shop in real time.
53:38It's fantastic. Maybe you'll want to try it with some of the next bets that we have here on deck.
53:46Germany, minus 190 to win outright over Ivory Coast.
53:49I tried to sell people. It was one of the few opportunities for me to hop in to go from a host to a quote-unquote expert.
53:58I said, empty the clip on the Germans, take them on the alternate lines.
54:03They win decisively 7-1 over Curacao. And now they have an Ivory Coast squad that had limited opportunities in their opener, but
54:11they also did the same against Ecuador, holding them to just a single shot on goal.
54:17So a lower opportunity, lower shot match for them, whereas the Germans are feeling 10 feet tall coming into this match.
54:24Both sides clearly have quality. So where do you start with this handicap, Benjamin?
54:29I think the Germans are part of a theme here in round two with underpriced favorites who won their first game.
54:37It's the same as Canada, Bosnia and the U.S.
54:40against Australia. We have matches where a draw would not hurt any of the teams.
54:45I was really positive about Ivory Coast after their Ecuador game.
54:49It was a match where Ecuador was the favorites pregame, but it pretty quick turned out that the Ivory Coast was here to create chances against this.
54:59Definitely a Fort Knox defense from the Ecuadorians, conceding only five goals in 18 qualification games at the Colma Bowls.
55:06So I like what I saw from the Ivory Coast team.
55:10It might sound a little weird, but I wasn't particularly impressed with the Germans.
55:15Obviously, putting in seven will always be positive, but I think they were sloppy from a concentration point of view against this Curaçao team.
55:23Not very good on the ball, of course, pouncing when they had to, scoring seven goals.
55:29But in general, I don't have big expectations for this German team.
55:33I think a lot of the team is maybe over the top.
55:37Lots of players coming in in their start mid-30s, having won bigger trophies early in their career.
55:44Now, more doubtful what they'll come up with. And I think the draw here is priced heavily at around plus 300 in
55:51a match where Germany will keep the first place with a draw.
55:56And the Ivory Coast will obviously just look to get one point, securing four points, and then being able to battle Germany
56:04for the first place with a huge win over Curaçao in game day three.
56:08Yeah, it's interesting that you bring up Curaçao's overall quality, because that's going to not just impact this match, but also the
56:16next one that we're going to discuss. Really a nation known more for their Little League baseball team.
56:23I don't know how much this is shown internationally, but in Williamsport every August, the best Little Leaguers in the world come and play.
56:31And Curaçao has been a world champion and a runner-up multiple times in just the last five years.
56:38So something to consider when we start to discuss this, because with an expanded World Cup field, there's clearly teams that are not World Cup quality.
56:47They're here in name only. In a lot of cases, they're just excited to be here.
56:53Do you believe that the 7-1 outcome in Germany's opening match was more about them or about Curaçao, in your opinion, Daniele?
57:01No, I think it was more about Germany, but he also revealed some of the vulnerabilities of the Germans.
57:07They considered an equaliser against Curaçao. Most of those players play in the Dutch League.
57:13So, I mean, we're still talking about professional players here that have been scouted and recruited almost all over the world, almost as if it was a club.
57:23And Curaçao, when they were on top, they had a couple of counterattacks with a better decision.
57:29It could have ended on the back of the net.
57:32Look, the problem with Curaçao is that they are not good at both faces.
57:37They almost don't have the defensive faces. And I was a bit surprised from Advocaat playing with four at the back, where
57:45he always played with three at the back. So, a 5-3-2, basically, in friendlies.
57:50And they've been much harder to beat. The 4-1 defeat against Scotland is deceptive.
57:55Actually, they've been very competitive in that game. Now, they're not going to find every single team in this World Cup that's
58:03got the quality up front like Germany, and is going to press them as high and as intensive as Germany.
58:10But, you know, I think Curaçao has got some principles in terms of coming out from the back with the ball and
58:18playing it that I think, you know, they're not a pushover by any stretch of imagination.
58:24Yes, of course, the score is high, but with a little bit of adjustment and maybe playing a more defensively minded game,
58:31I think they are probably going to get better results.
58:35I think they're going to get a point in this group somewhere.
58:39Probably the next game, maybe, or maybe the one against Ivory Coast.
58:44Going back to Germany, I'm wondering whether against a better side like Ivory Coast, they're going to rein it in a little bit?
58:52They're going to try and sit back and don't overexpose themselves?
58:56Because this Germany is still a work-in-progress team. It's a young team.
59:00And if they push that line too high, if they expose too much, they might end up like Bayern against PSG, suffering
59:08a counter-attack after five minutes with Vara Shelley. Now, this Ivory Coast team has got Ian Diomande, which we all know from
59:16the Bundesliga, but also a little bit of depth.
59:19Eli Wahi, playing in the Ligue 1, has played in the Champions League.
59:23Nicolas Pepe, Angie Johan Borny, who won the Scudetto with Inter, Amadie Allo, Simon Adingra, Ivan Gersand, who didn't even come onto the pitch.
59:32And these have got Premier League experience. So if Germany are not mindful, I think Ivory Coast can stick one or two
59:40on the back of Neuesnet before Germany can react.
59:43So I do take Benjamin Tips here. Germany overpriced, by far, one of the most overpriced teams on match day two.
59:51All right, let me stick with you, Daniele, as we discuss Ecuador minus 1100 against Curaçao in the next match played in Kansas City, Missouri.
59:59Also, just north of 10 to 1 for the draw.
60:03We walk through everything that happens with Curaçao against Germany.
60:07You have a belief that there's going to be a way for them to grab one draw in this tournament.
60:14Is this the time to spring into action? It could be, but certainly this is not going to be a high-scoring game.
60:22I can't imagine this going to be a goal fest.
60:25Ecuador are extremely hard to beat and they're extremely hard to score against.
60:30That game against Ivory Coast was the first defeat in 20 games in which they conceded only 0.35 goals per game.
60:37They've only conceded five in South American qualifiers. Now, those are 18 games, four of which against Brazil and Argentina.
60:44So it's a very, very good sample. I think Curaçao will go back to the three at the back here and probably
60:52try to become more of a tricky customer. Ecuador are going to press them.
60:57They press them quite high. It is a team that likes to do high turnovers.
61:03They had nine high turnovers against Ivory Coast, four of which ended up in a shot, which is the third highest percentage of the World Cup.
61:12So when they recover the ball, they don't really waste the time.
61:16They try to have a shot as quickly as possible.
61:20Of course, they don't have the same quality as Germany.
61:23Hence, that might lead to lower XG to a lower chance ratio, of course.
61:28So I think probably Ecuador wins this one. Maybe Curaçao got better chances against Ivory Coast who are more of a counter-attack inside of getting a point.
61:38But yeah, probably low-scoring side here. Low-scoring game here.
61:41Mr. Leander, you're bringing our first prop bet on corner kicks into the fray.
61:46And I'm excited to hear why you like Ecuador over six and a half corners at minus 141.
61:52Fully agree on almost everything that Daniela says here.
61:56Ecuador, I think they were hard done against Ivory Coast.
61:59They had three shots on the goalposts. But on the other way, also allowing quite a few chances the other way.
62:07And they need to take this seriously because they have Germany in the last game of the group.
62:13Obviously, they will be the underdogs in this game.
62:16And projections are about that you could and should advance with three points and a goal difference of minus one.
62:23Might sound a little surprising, but it is what the big simulations have revealed that you could advance with three points and
62:31a goal score between minus one and minus two.
62:34So Ecuador needs to win here. They need to win by more than one goal.
62:40The problem is that Ecuador is having a hard time scoring against pretty much every team.
62:46They have an amazing defense, but under their national coach, Becaseze, they always had a hard time creating matches and creating lots of chances.
62:54Only two times in his 21 matches at the steering wheel for Ecuador, they won by more than two goals.
63:01And that was against a lackluster Bolivian side who always struggle when they come down from mountains.
63:07They even played shorthanded for 70 minutes against Ecuador, winning 4-0.
63:11And then Ecuador won 3-0 against Guatemala in the build-up to this World Cup.
63:16Guatemala, who should be around the same level as the Curaçao team.
63:20So I see something, a scoreline between 2-0 should be enough for Ecuador.
63:253-0 would be great in terms of they can allow themselves to lose by a couple of goals against Germany.
63:32But I like the fact that they have to chase goals from the start and not stop just at 1-0 or 2-0.
63:40We saw that Ecuador had a lot of corners in other games where they had to chase the goals, 12 against Bolivia,
63:48and that Curaçao gave up 6 corners in less than an hour against Germany before Germany took a little bit the foot
63:56off the pedal and only had two corners in the last 40 minutes.
64:00So I think Ecuador should be playing here all the time, chasing goals, and due to the big possession they have will
64:08also rather easily cover the 6.5 total for team corners.
64:12We close out this discussion in Guadalupe, Mexico with our late-night match between Tunisia and Japan.
64:17Tunisia was embarrassed by Sweden as we mentioned earlier, and their coach, their manager already sacked.
64:23Sabri Lamushi is out after that 5-1 defeat and shout out to former Action Network producer Matt Mitchell.
64:30He loved when he would lose a bet and then immediately that program, that team, that club would fire their manager or coach.
64:38He at least feels vindicated in that way so he gets to see that one happen as it relates to Tunisia.
64:45I'm not sure if he placed a bet on that or not.
64:50But Japan on the other side of this, they show that they can compete with the Dutch in their matchup.
64:57I think this is the clear value play just south of minus 200.
65:01I'll go to you first, Daniele. Do you like a side here?
65:06Are you focusing on a total? No, I'm totally on an under 2.5 goals, minus 143.
65:11Not a huge price, but I think we're going to see a regression to the mean from both Tunisia and Japan.
65:19Well, there are a few things you can be certain in life.
65:23Debt, taxes, and an African team sacking the manager midway through Sabri Lamushi was axed after only five games in charge.
65:31Five nil defeat against Belgium in a friendly then five nil defeat against Sweden.
65:36Perhaps they were a little bit unlucky. Sweden only had 1.33xg, and so they called Harvey Renard, who was in charge of
65:43Saudi Arabia four years ago when they beat Argentina, of course.
65:47Now, I looked at when in previous World Cup teams have sacked the manager halfway through the tournament.
65:54Tunisia did it in 1998, South Korea and Saudi Arabia own the same tournament.
65:59They all managed to get a draw in the following game after sacking the manager.
66:04Now, there is something called the new manager bounce over the season.
66:08Let's see if it happens over the tournament, but I think that if Tunisia gets back to the best, and this is
66:16a team that regularly qualifies for major tournaments, when they are back to the best is when they can keep it tight.
66:24So I think with the new manager, what he's going to try to do is to get back to the basics, because
66:32he only got a couple of days to work with his players.
66:36He's not going to ask them to play attacking expensive football, go there and win the game.
66:42Get a draw, get a 0-0, get a 1-1 somehow, manage to stay alive until the last game of the group.
66:50And I think those two defeats, when they consider it five goals, they are an anomaly, because the previous five games before
66:58those two defeats have all been under 2.5 goals.
67:01In November 2025, they drew 1-1 against Brazil. It was a friendly, but it was still Brazil.
67:07Now, Japan, this is an interesting one, because they are not normally favorites going into games, especially at the World Cup.
67:14They are normally the underdog, but now they are after a 2-2 against the Dutch.
67:20In previous games, when they were priced at similar price, they beat Ghana 2-0, friendly, they beat South Korea 2-0, and draw 0-0 against Saudi Arabia.
67:29So you can see a pattern here, under, under, under.
67:32And why? Because the Japanese are risk-adverse risk-adverse in football, in society, I would say, as a culture, they are risk-adverse.
67:40And if you noticed, in the first half, they didn't overexpose themselves, and at the end of the game, when they were
67:48on top, they were holding a massive board to tell players how many minutes left on stoppage time.
67:54It's almost like the players need to know seconds by seconds how to behave, how to interact, to avoid taking risks.
68:02So again, I don't think Japan, although this is probably the best Japan we've ever seen in terms of players, they beat
68:10England, they beat Scotland, they beat Germany, but they are not a risky team.
68:15Therefore, I think this is an under 2.5 goals.
68:18Tunisia goes back to the mean. Japan, stay Japan, under 2.5 goals, minus 143.
68:23Benjamin, I know that you don't have an official play here, but at least in American sports, we talk ad nauseam about
68:31the body clock, travel, and about kickoff start times in basically every sport that we cover.
68:36And in this case, this is a 10pm local time start, and the Japanese played at 4pm local in their last match.
68:44Does that come into play at all, or do you think that is something, given the schedules have been out for so
68:52long that every single national team at least has factored that in, in terms of their preparation, and maybe that's an overblown element of a handicap?
69:01I think this is the biggest no-bet match for me, maybe in the entire group stage, due to the fact that we
69:09don't know what will happen with the Tunisian team.
69:12Herve Renard, the new national team coach, is very experienced from having previously managed Morocco, the Ivory Coast, Saudi Arabia, Sambia, and
69:20coming from all these national team jobs has been that he is a very big under-manager.
69:26However, the draw is no good for Tunisia. That would leave them with only a victory against Netherlands in a match where they are heavily underdogs.
69:35They have to win that match if they don't get more than one point against Japan.
69:41And on the other hand, Japan will be a sit on two points after the two first games and then up against
69:49Sweden in a match where yes, a draw might be good for both teams.
69:54But at the same time, what will happen if it's 1-1 15 minutes before the end of the match?
70:00In terms of kickoff, I think football players on one side, they are accustomed to doing what they always do.
70:07But we see in the in the afternoon, some matches in Spain kick off close to midnight.
70:14So I really don't think that this should be a problem at all with the teams having been in camp at North America and Mexico for several weeks.
70:24So hopefully and probably it won't have too much of an impact.
70:28We're going to close today's episode with our Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook favorite bet segments.
70:33I'm going to turn to you first, Benjamin, in terms of racing to the window.
70:39And this is what's interesting about seasoned soccer football bettors is that there's usually value in things not to happen, whereas some
70:46of the casual money that floods in during the World Cup, people want to see goals, people want to see player props
70:54where the market is yes, you're going in the opposite direction, talk us through it.
71:00Yeah, like I said earlier, I really like Morocco to keep that clean sheet.
71:05They don't have to attack from the start, being satisfied with a single point against Scotland.
71:10However, I do believe that they are rightly the clear favorites in this match, and I just see them being in a very good place.
71:19If they take this expected 1-0 lead, they will shut the Scots down.
71:24I saw the Scots live in Denmark against the Danish national teams where they had absolutely nothing relying on set pieces and pretty much that's it.
71:33Morocco will be able to defend well against these set pieces with rather big physique.
71:38Once again, Scotland not to score just north of plus 100 should be the best team goals bet for round two.
71:46Another low-scoring best bet, Daniele, talk us through yours.
71:49Tunisia, Japan, under 2.5 goals and minus 143. First rule of any new manager is keep it simple, keep it solid, don't get beaten.
71:58I think that's what Harvey Renard is going to do with this new Tunisian team.
72:03When they are at the best, they don't concede many goals.
72:07Those five goals conceded from Sweden I think were a statistical anomaly.
72:11Japan, good, like them against the Netherlands, they reacted, they came back into the game which normally they are not used to, but they are a risk-adverse team.
72:21They can keep the ball extremely well, they can control the tempo, they're not going to take many risks going forward.
72:29They'll probably win it, and if they win it, I don't think they're going to score more than two goals.
72:36Under 2.5 goals for Tunisia, Japan. Those are our best bets from the second batch of matches in groups A through F.
72:44Be sure to head over to Hard Rock Bet Sports Book to find the very best odds and lock those in.
72:51That's it for our show today. Special thanks to Daniele and to Benjamin.
72:56If you'd like to follow them, you can go over at Daniele Fizichella.
73:00That's D-F-I-S-I-C-H-E-L-L-A underscore. You can find them on the Action Network app and on social media.
73:06And then where can we find you over on X, Benjamin?
73:10You can find me under the name of Leandinho, the Brazilification of Leander.
73:15So Leandinho, DK on X. A famous midfielder. He used to play for San Paolo, no?
73:20Cruzeiro. Yeah. Very famous. And now just a pale Dane sitting in an office in Copenhagen.
73:26moved over to Denmark. This has been the Action Network podcast.
73:30Thank you so much for listening. Please like and subscribe.
73:34Leave us a five-star rating and review. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel.
73:38Helps to grow our overall brand so we can bring more of this World Cup coverage to the masses.
73:45Thanks again and as always, best of luck with all your bets and we'll see you at the window.
73:52Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
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