Age 37 decline evident; TE14 ranking vs consensus TE9; ADP reasonable for floor play

The source projects Kelce at 76 receptions, 784 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 147 half-PPR points per game. He finished as tight end three last year with 76 catches and 5 touchdowns, but the source notes he is not quite where Tucker Kraft, Colston Loveland, McBride, Bowers, and Tyler Warren are in fancy points per game this year. The source argues Kelce is showing clear signs of age-related decline entering his age 37 season; his yards per route run is at the lowest of his 13-season career; his 76 receptions last year were the lowest since 2015; he has finished with 5 or fewer touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. The source ranks him at tight end 14, not the consensus tight end 9, because he believes Kelce is in the dangerous middle tier of tight ends more likely to finish like players going after him than ahead of him. However, the source notes that despite Kelce's decline, his ADP is not reflective of his actual value; tight end nine is not a super early draft pick and you still know what you're getting with Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. The source contends that while Kelce is unlikely to finish as a repeat top-five tight end, his ADP is reasonable and he can be a reliable floor play, even if he doesn't have the upside of younger tight ends. Additionally, Rasheed Rice is expected to be available for the Chiefs starting in week one; when Rice and Kelce are on the field together, Rice gets more targets. Rice was second in red zone targets per game last year when on the field, indicating he will compete heavily for Kelce's target share and red zone opportunities.

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