Fantasy Football Draft Court: CMC, Justin Jefferson & Travis Kelce on Trial! (Ep. 2085)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 9, 2026
Published
Thu, July 9, 2026
16
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownChristian McCaffreyColston LovelandDavid MontgomeryIsaiah LikelyJadarian PriceJames CookJustin JeffersonKenneth Walker IIIPatrick MahomesRashee RiceTony PollardTravis KelceTucker Kraft
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue7:00
Andrew Erickson ranks AJ Brown WR5 overall, placing him ahead of Christian McCaffrey and other consensus top players. In the Justin Jefferson debate, Erickson explicitly prefers AJ Brown over Jefferson, ranking Brown at WR5 and Jefferson at WR6. Derek Brown agrees he will not rank Jefferson above AJ Brown, reinforcing Brown's premium valuation.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeProjection3:36
McCaffrey presents a conflicting case: Derek Brown ranks him RB4 citing five seasons of 16+ games with RB1, RB1, RB2, RB2, and top-three finishes, plus late-season efficiency gains (weeks 11–18 ranked 13th in explosive run rate, 19th in miss tackle rate among 45 backs; SF OL improved from 30th in yards before contact per attempt weeks 1–10 to 9th weeks 11–18). However, Andrew Erickson ranks him RB10, citing historical precedent: running backs leading the NFL in touches (McCaffrey had 450 in 2025) finished as RB53 and RB72 the following season in his prior two occurrences. Only one RB aged 24+ finished top-five after 400+ touches in 13 years (LaDainian Tomlinson at age 24). McCaffrey is now 30 years old with career-low rushing efficiency (4th-lowest rush yards over expectation per attempt, 2nd-lowest PFF rushing grade among 58 qualifying backs). RBs aged 27+ who led the NFL in touches have zero top-five finishes the following year (six instances). Erickson's stance: fade McCaffrey entirely.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection47:27
The source mentions Colston Loveland as one of the tight ends who came on late last season and is now outpacing Travis Kelce in fancy points per game projections for this year, suggesting he is a more attractive fantasy option than Kelce.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue45:45
The source prefers David Montgomery in the draft range where Tony Pollard is being selected (around pick 20), indicating Montgomery is a preferred target at that ADP.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveSleeper51:45
The source prefers Isaiah Likely over Travis Kelce, arguing that Likely offers more upside as a top-five tight end candidate. The source explicitly states he wants to draft a player going to be a top-five tight end like Isaiah Likely, who is going after Kelce in ADP, rather than draft Kelce in the dangerous middle tier of tight ends.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeValue45:45
The source explicitly states he would take Tony Pollard over Jadarian Price in drafts and notes that a lot of people are overrating Price right now, particularly in the first six weeks of the season. Site projections rank Price as RB26, indicating limited early-season upside.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveValue7:48
Both Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown agree they would rather have James Cook than Christian McCaffrey. Erickson explicitly ranks James Cook as RB3, ahead of McCaffrey (RB10). This consensus preference reflects Cook's superior ranking relative to McCaffrey despite McCaffrey's historical talent.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection10:00
Andrew Erickson ranks Jefferson WR6, arguing his body of work shows he finishes no worse than WR6 in full seasons when healthy (aside from 2025). Despite 2025's poor performance, peripherals remain strong: 29% target share, 18 red zone targets but only 2 touchdowns (major regression). Erickson attributes the down year to terrible quarterback play in Minnesota; when Carson Wentz started (5 games in 2025), Jefferson posted 95 receiving yards per game. He projects Jefferson will return to top-five conversation with improved QB play (Kyler Murray or improved JJ McCarthy). Derek Brown counters with WR12 ranking, citing 2025 performance: Jefferson finished WR14 in expected fantasy points per game with 36th-ranked separation and 38th-ranked route win rate among 109 WRs—not elite for a top-six receiver. Brown's core concern is the Minnesota QB situation: if JJ McCarthy doesn't improve or if Kyler Murray underperforms (as documented in recent seasons), Jefferson will suffer. Murray has documented inability to throw over the middle of the field, problematic because 32.2% of Jefferson's target volume over the last two seasons came in the middle of the field (0–19 yards from line of scrimmage). 68% of chat voted to draft Jefferson, with Erickson going 2-for-2 in securing 'draft him' verdicts.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeRole49:29
The source notes that despite the Kansas City Chiefs adding Kenneth Walker, the offense will not turn into a run-heavy, run-centric system, implying Walker's impact will be limited and will not significantly reduce target volume for pass-catchers like Travis Kelce.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeRole49:29
The source notes that Patrick Mahomes' late-season injury caused Travis Kelce to fade at the end of last year, but expects Mahomes to be healthy entering 2026. The source emphasizes that Kelce's target volume will remain significant in Kansas City because the offense is not going to turn into a run-heavy system.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveRole50:09
The source expects Rasheed Rice to be available for the Chiefs starting in week one. When Rice and Kelce are on the field together, Rice gets more targets; Rice was second in red zone targets per game last year when on the field, indicating he will be a primary red-zone target and will compete heavily for target share and scoring opportunities.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeProjection36:00
Andrew Erickson projects Tony Pollard for 238.7 rushing attempts, 1,000 rushing yards, 6.5 rushing touchdowns, and 175 half-PPR points, ranking him RB32 while Derek Brown has him at RB20; consensus ECR places him at RB29. Erickson is concerned about Pollard's lack of top-20 finishes despite high volume: 'Tony Pollard has gotten all the volume he can handle last two seasons for the Tennessee Titans, and that has resulted in zero top 20 finishes.' Erickson expresses concern about Pollard's durability and declining production entering age 29 with over 1,500 career touches, comparing him to Austin Eckler, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and James Connor—'guys that are nowhere near drafting because they're not being drafted because those running backs are no longer relevant in fantasy football anymore.' Pollard was RB39 through 13 weeks last year before incentives kicked in, making him 'virtually unplayable' until late-season volume surges. Erickson raises concerns about potential committee usage with Tajay Spears and rookie Nick Singleton; Spears out-targeted Pollard in receptions last year and is in a contract year. New head coach Brian Dayball has a history of deploying day-three rookie running backs (Cam Scadaboo, Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary) and has 'not been shy of unleashing day three rookie running backs to lead his backfields,' suggesting Singleton could carve out a significant role. Erickson cites the Titans' bottom-three offensive line ranking as a ceiling constraint and notes Pollard ranked 11th worst in missed tackles forced per attempt (minimum 100 carries) last year. Derek Brown defends Pollard's RB20 ranking by highlighting his consistency: four straight seasons of 1,000+ rushing yards, valuable in a landscape where RB2s are unpredictable. Brown notes Pollard ranked 25th in explosive run rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt among 49 qualifying RBs—middle-of-the-pack efficiency metrics. Brown pushes back against Erickson's criticism of the Titans' offensive line, noting they ranked 13th in yards before contact per attempt in run-blocking last year. Brown emphasizes that Dayball's history shows he commits to one bell-cow running back yearly unless injury occurs, citing examples: Cam Scadaboo, Tyrone Tracy, Reggie Bush, Jamal Charles, and Peyton Hillis all served as clear workhorse backs under Dayball. The source argues Pollard is valuable where he's going in drafts, preferring him over Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Warren, and Jadarian Price. Pollard finished strong late last season (Week 14: 25 carries for 161 yards and 2 TDs; Week 15: 14 carries for 104 yards and 1 TD; Week 21: 21 carries for 102 yards; Week 22: 15 carries for 85 yards).
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveBust47:08
The source projects Kelce at 76 receptions, 784 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 147 half-PPR points per game. He finished as tight end three last year with 76 catches and 5 touchdowns, but the source notes he is not quite where Tucker Kraft, Colston Loveland, McBride, Bowers, and Tyler Warren are in fancy points per game this year. The source argues Kelce is showing clear signs of age-related decline entering his age 37 season; his yards per route run is at the lowest of his 13-season career; his 76 receptions last year were the lowest since 2015; he has finished with 5 or fewer touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. The source ranks him at tight end 14, not the consensus tight end 9, because he believes Kelce is in the dangerous middle tier of tight ends more likely to finish like players going after him than ahead of him. However, the source notes that despite Kelce's decline, his ADP is not reflective of his actual value; tight end nine is not a super early draft pick and you still know what you're getting with Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. The source contends that while Kelce is unlikely to finish as a repeat top-five tight end, his ADP is reasonable and he can be a reliable floor play, even if he doesn't have the upside of younger tight ends. Additionally, Rasheed Rice is expected to be available for the Chiefs starting in week one; when Rice and Kelce are on the field together, Rice gets more targets. Rice was second in red zone targets per game last year when on the field, indicating he will compete heavily for Kelce's target share and red zone opportunities.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeInjury47:27
The source mentions an injury to Tucker Kraft as one of the factors that affected the tight end position landscape last season, noting that some guys really came on late to fill the void created by injuries at the position.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveProjection47:27
The source lists Tyler Warren among the tight ends who are outpacing Travis Kelce in fancy points per game projections for this year, suggesting Warren is a more attractive fantasy option than Kelce.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
PositiveRole50:09
The source notes that Xavier Worthy will not miss half the season with a shoulder injury this year, unlike last season when he was injured early. Full availability should increase his target share and role in the Chiefs offense compared to last year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Ready to counterattack with fast heartburn relief.
0:04Learn how Halion can assist your game day goals at halionassist.com.
0:08All rise! The court is in session! Judge Joey has officially returned for season two of Fantasy Draft Court.
0:14And today with me, two lawyers of varying styles.
0:17First we have Andrew Erickson looking very, very smart in his glasses.
0:20The hair is combed properly. He's wearing a jacket.
0:23And then next to him I've got, I don't know, my cousin Vinny over here.
0:28Here's Derek Brown just wearing a black t-shirt basically into my courtroom.
0:32Sir, have you no respect for this court? Sir, yes, cousin Vinny is always my style and I'm the public defender.
0:38I'm the voice of the people. Okay? So I don't, I don't get all this glitz and glam and get to dress up fancy like Mr.
0:46Erickson over here. You could at least go to Kohl's and try to buy something off the rack to impress me here in the court today.
0:54Uh, Kirk Cousins went through there and wiped the entire place out.
0:58That was unavailable to me, sir. Fair enough. He has been very busy.
1:02Apologies to the court. And he does make a lot of money.
1:06Andrew Erickson, I appreciate that you today have come prepared.
1:09It looks like visually. And I believe also with some statistics to back up some of your opinions on today's episode of
1:16draft court, as people can see, I've also bought a new wig.
1:20So Andrew Erickson, I have gone for the little bit longer version here in season two.
1:25Season one, my curls were kind of, uh, I don't know, man, it's the humidity.
1:29Something was, something was off there. Maybe it was just kind of packed away too long.
1:34So I've got a new wig and Andrew, I want you to tell me the truth.
1:39Will this give you nightmares tonight as you try to lay your head down to sleep?
1:44Cannot confirm nor deny those claims, sir, Judge Judy.
1:47Yeah. Even butter, even better. Sure. Can I point out to the court that there is a bald spot in said wig before we get rolling?
1:55I don't know if it's a bald spot. I think it's just kind of like, There's an absence of curls there.
2:02It just unpacked yesterday. It's not really a bald spot.
2:05It's more of a, You need to brush it?
2:08No, no, I'm afraid to brush it. I think what we're trying to do is we're trying to just make sure that
2:15the curls are starting to open up a little bit.
2:18That's what it is. It was vacuum sealed. Like everything you buy nowadays, it's like vacuum sealed and you open it up
2:25and it has to breathe a little bit. I think just it needs to breathe a little bit.
2:30Maybe I'll get one of those creepy mannequin heads from my office.
2:34The Timo Judge wig. Watch your ass, Brown. We're not getting off to a good start here already.
2:40All right. So for those of you who might not know what we're doing today, I'm going to tell you.
2:46It's a little thing called fantasy court. We're going to talk about two players, uh, going back and actually more of five players.
2:53What am I saying? Five players. We're going to go back and forth with these two yahoos and their opinions about where they have them in their ranks.
3:02They will defend their rankings of said players. And then we're going to put it to you, the people right here watching the program.
3:09And we want you to decide ultimately who is right and who is wrong because this is the people show here on fantasy pros.
3:17We want you to like this video. We want you to subscribe to the fantasy pros YouTube channel here.
3:23And, uh, gentlemen, without further ado, let's bring up our first, I don't want to say offender, but, uh, I just watched
3:30his workout video and I'm, I'm just weirded out.
3:33We're going to talk about it on tailgate tomorrow live.
3:36Cause I still don't know exactly what I saw, but let's discuss Christian McCaffrey last year.
3:41Fantastic bounce back season after being well, kind of misery in 2024 incomplete to say the least.
3:46And Christian McCaffrey right now in Andrew Erickson's rankings is RB 10.
3:50Derek Brown has them as RB four. This is a big divide here.
3:54One's got them basically on the fringe of the first round.
3:57The other has them as a top five picks.
4:00So Derek Brown, I will let you go first.
4:03This court is officially in session for Christian McCaffrey's value in 2026.
4:07RB four defend yourself. This is a binary decision.
4:09Uh, I think you, when you look at this binary decision, it's either a Christian McCaffrey, you fade him or you believe
4:16in him because if you believe in him, he's going to be a top two running back.
4:22If he stays healthy and the five seasons that he's played at least 16 games, RB one, RB one, RB two, RB two, and fantasy points per game.
4:30And there are reasons to believe that McCaffrey can stay healthy.
4:34I understand the workload that he incurred last year, but we've seen this before.
4:38If he can stay healthy, he will be a top two running back.
4:42And I know Mr. Erickson might point out his inefficiencies, especially on the ground, but I would like to offer some new evidence for the court.
4:50McCaffrey down the back half of last season in weeks, 11 through 18 amongst 45 qualifying running backs was 13th and explosive
4:57run rate and 19th and miss tackle rate. And why did we see this massive jump for McCaffrey in the back half
5:04of the season with the volume totaling up because the San Francisco offensive line did not play good to open the season weeks, one through 10.
5:12They were 30th in yards before contact per attempt in weeks, 11 through 18.
5:17They were ninth. They were the ninth best offensive line for run blocking.
5:21So McCaffrey can stay healthy. He should again, be a top three back at worst and fantasy.
5:26And based off Mr. Erickson's ranking, nobody would get exposure to that.
5:30Well, that is true. Andrew Erickson, you are lower than the consensus by a good amount.
5:35When it comes to Christian McCaffrey, overall Christian McCaffrey is still the seventh player and you have him at 10.
5:41So it's not egregious, but is definitive at the same time.
5:44Now, if we are going to answer some of the questions here in this complaint against Christian McCaffrey, I'm sure the biggest
5:51complaint is of course the injury history, but it's football guys get hurt all the time.
5:56Some will say, while others will say some get hurt more than others and others still might say that when a running
6:03back comes off another big volume season and is around 30 years old, that's when you start getting out of the business.
6:10Some others might also say that I'm very handsome in this wig.
6:14So what say you, Andrew Erickson, with all this hearsay going around Christian McCaffrey, please talk to me about your RB 10
6:21ranking, because this is a pretty big difference overall.
6:23Pretty big difference overall for me. I'm just looking at the history of running backs, particularly ones that have come off seasons
6:30where they've led the NFL in touches, which is what Christian McCaffrey did last year with a grand total of 450 touches, including the post season.
6:38This is nothing new for Christian McCaffrey. He's done this twice already in his NFL career, leave the NFL in touches.
6:45The following seasons, those years he finished as RB 53 and RB 72.
6:49So to me, it's a process that has worked time and time again, every single season dating back to 2013, where you're
6:56basically looking at if a player leads the NFL in touches one year, they don't repeat as a fantasy RB one the following season.
7:03We've seen one guy be a top five fantasy running back in the last 13 years after seeing at least 400 plus touches.
7:11One guy. That's it. The only running back to return to glory was a 24 year old LaDainley and Tomlinson after seeing 400 plus touches.
7:18RB's age 27 or older, six times have led the NFL in touches zero top finishes, top five finishes the following year.
7:25You already alluded to the age he's 30 years old right now.
7:29He showed some rushing efficiencies or inefficiencies last year when things kind of fell off career low in yards per attempt, fourth,
7:36lowest rush yards over expectation per attempt PFF, second lowest grade rusher among 58 qualifying running backs.
7:41So for me, it's yeah, it's binary. You're either in on McCaffrey, you're out of McCaffrey, I'm out of McCaffrey, but I
7:48do have a question for the defense here with Derek Brown.
7:52I'll allow it. Overall, Christian McCaffrey in the ECR is ranked ahead of guys like James Cook, AJ Brown, but D-Bro has
7:58those guys ranked ahead of Christian McCaffrey. So I don't know how he's drafting CMC either.
8:03If he has those players also ranked ahead. Derek Brown, your response?
8:07I have my Christian McCaffrey concerns, but at certain points of certain drafts, people still will get access to Christian McCaffrey.
8:14They will not with an RB 10 ranking. All right.
8:17I want to the record to show that I did misspeak prior.
8:21I was looking at the overall number on McCaffrey.
8:23He is the seventh player overall, but the third running back overall.
8:27So there's a seven running back gap here for Christian McCaffrey and Andrew Erickson's rankings.
8:32Now, look, both of you make some pretty cogent arguments, which is surprising after knowing both of you as long as I have known you.
8:40And there are a lot of facts to be beholden here.
8:43So I'm going to go ahead and I'm going to put this to the jury.
8:48That's all of you who are watching right now on the YouTube channel.
8:52Like this video, share, subscribe. And when you vote, I want you to take into account, not just the prolific talent of
8:59Christian McCaffrey, but also the cost of Christian McCaffrey.
9:02Is that cost in your opinion closer to the Derek Brown view as the fourth running back off the board or closer
9:08to the Andrew Erickson view of the 10th running back off the board?
9:13As we deliberate, are there any closing arguments, Derek Brown, you'd like to make in the defense of Christian McCaffrey before we
9:19find out exactly what the verdict might be? If you fade Christian McCaffrey, he has the ability to make you absolutely pay for it in fantasy.
9:28So be careful. That is true. I faded him last year and I did pay for it in many a league.
9:34However, I also faded in the previous season and other people paid for it in their leagues.
9:39Andrew Erickson, any closing remarks here? Debro and I would both rather have James Cook.
9:44Is that true or not? That is fair. Debro.
9:47Yes, that is fair. James Cook is RB3 for me.
9:50Agreed. And he is also ranked lower in the ECR and ADP.
9:54All right. Very good. Very good. All right. So we will wait the, the verdict here, the jury's in deliberation.
10:00The voting has begun here. Make sure you vote right now.
10:03Also, while we're talking, don't forget about the new giveaway that we've got going on here at Fantasy Pros.
10:09We've got not one, but two giveaways. If you want a chance to win a $50 Fantasy Pro shop code or a
10:16one-year betting pro subscription, this is your chance. All you have to do is subscribe to the YouTube channel right now, drop
10:23your comment below on this or any video, and that's it.
10:27We'll be announcing the winner right here on the channel.
10:30So make sure you turn on those notifications so you can know when the videos are now up.
10:35And of course, when you can claim one of these fabulous prizes.
10:39Yes, we're the only court that gives away fabulous prizes, not necessarily sentences as well.
10:44So Christian McCaffrey, we will await the final decision here.
10:47I have to say, as somebody who typically does, when we're getting down to that middle group here, overall players, I still
10:54like to go that wide receiver group. I still like Justin Jefferson.
10:58I like Jackson Smith and Jigba. I like Amon Ross St.
11:01Brown. So Derek Brown, I'm curious overall, just because you haven't already before, are you someone who really does like to draft Christian McCaffrey?
11:08I know we did a mock draft episode just today.
11:12Do you have any input about that? Did I draft him today, Judge Joey?
11:16You did. And what position were you in that draft?
11:19Sixth. Sixth overall. So you did put your money where your mouth is.
11:23Andrew Erickson, I got to ask you a question.
11:26Realistically, as RB10, clearly you're not going to have any shares of Christian McCaffrey.
11:30What is the point where he falls in a first round that you consider it?
11:35Or is he out of the first round completely for you no matter what?
11:39I guess I just haven't really thought about it because I know it will never happen.
11:44Fair. Unless you're playing in a draft with 11 other Andrew Erickson's.
11:48That's really... Can you do that? Is that something we could actually do?
11:52I'm not sure about that. I would like to see that.
11:56Maybe there's enough box. With the mock draft simulator, you can do a lot of fun things.
12:01Can you make 11 other Andrew Erickson's? That's what we want to do.
12:05In that mock draft, he's falling into the second round.
12:08All right. He continues to plummet down the ranks.
12:11And then there's actual Andrew Erickson who goes, eh, I'm going to pass.
12:15All right. The poll is concluded. The verdict is in and I will now read said verdict here what the people have decided.
12:2267% of the chat has agreed. It's an overwhelming margin around these parts that they are not drafting Christian McCaffrey.
12:28The answer is do not draft at cost. Eric Brown takes a big fat L on this one.
12:34Andrew Erickson off to a good start here. One nothing.
12:37Not too shabby. Andrew Erickson, not too shabby. You got to feel pretty good to get the W here.
12:43Although last year you got a lot of W's and it turned out that Derrick Brown was right about a lot of
12:50things, but I don't want to waste time on that because that will just encourage Derrick Brown's bad behavior.
12:56So let's move on to another name here on our list.
12:59Another fine player. One of my personal favorites. So be careful what you say about my good friend, Justin Jefferson, wide receiver of the Minnesota Vikings.
13:08One of the most talented guys out there. No doubt about it.
13:11And last year had a down season. Why? Because the Vikings quarterback room literally fell apart and burst into flames.
13:18I don't know how it could do both at the same time, but it absolutely did.
13:23And here we find ourselves now looking at Justin Jefferson, not as a top three overall pick.
13:28No, no. Sometimes as 10, 11, 12 in some drafts, which is absurd in my opinion.
13:33Andrew Erickson, you have him at wide receiver six.
13:36Derrick Brown, you have him at wide receiver 12.
13:3812 for a man who has given us so much.
13:42And yet you give him back so little because of one bad season.
13:46He's been wide receiver five, wide receiver four, wide receiver one and wide receiver two.
13:50The only time he was not was wide receiver 29 in 2023 when he played only 10 games, but in fantasy points, he was still top five.
13:59But last year, yes, was a bad year, but Justin Jefferson's age is still not too much of an issue.
14:05He's just 27 years old. So Andrew Erickson, I'll let you start here.
14:09Let's talk about the good when it comes to Justin Jefferson in 2026.
14:13Well, you can't argue with the body of work that you kind of just alluded to.
14:18Basically, anytime he's been healthy, he's no worse than wide receiver six in a full season aside from last year.
14:24And the peripherals from last season are still very, very strong, nearly a 29% target share.
14:29The touchdowns were lacking. He scored two touchdowns all season, despite 18 red zone targets.
14:34And I talked about this in last year's version of the black book, where it would take a lack of touchdowns and
14:41bad offensive environment for him to fall off the face of the earth.
14:45That's what it would take. And it was the perfect storm of terrible things happening for Justin Jefferson among the quarterback play
14:52in Minnesota that resulted in last year's season. But why should we be more optimistic with a potential upgrade, a quarterback in the form of Kyler Murray?
15:00Well, last year when Carson Wentz was on our center, five games, Justin Jefferson was posting nearly a hundred receiving yards per game at 95.
15:08He just happened to score zero touchdowns in those performances.
15:11So I think that when push comes to shove, they're going to get better quarterback play in Minnesota, whether that is either
15:18Kyler Murray or an improved JJ McCarthy. I think one way or another, they're going to get better quarterback play and that's
15:25going to result and get Justin Jefferson back inside the top five conversation of fantasy wide receivers, because that's how good we
15:32know he's still an elite level receiver. He's only 27 years old.
15:36He's primed for a major bounce back, in my opinion.
15:39So for those reasons, that's why I have Jefferson ranked as the wide receiver six.
15:43All right. So wide receiver six, which is also for the record where the expert consensus right now has him, which is spot on fair.
15:51You are lower than consensus. You are lower than Andrew Erickson.
15:55So let's discuss Derek Brown, your ranking of Justin Jefferson at wide receiver 12, because it does feel a little objectionable to me.
16:02You're putting him closer to Rushy Rice. You're putting him closer to Devonta Smith and you're putting him closer to Teddero McMillan.
16:09And I struggle with that. Open my eyes. Tell me why Justin Jefferson should be there instead of with Amon Rossane Brown
16:16and the likes of some of those other gentlemen.
16:18So last year, Justin Jefferson was the wide receiver 14 and expected fantasy points per game.
16:23So not close to this top six, top seven ranking, not even a wide receiver one.
16:28If he hit that expected points per game mark, his per route data also slipped a little bit.
16:34So the things that Jefferson can control and that he can't control, he can't control the catchable targets and what have you
16:41that are thrown his way or the uncatchable ones, but he can control is getting open.
16:46And amongst 109 wide receivers, he was 36th in separation and 38th in route win rate.
16:51Those are not elite numbers. They are not terrible numbers, but not top six wide receiver type of numbers.
16:57And I have big questions about it. And this is really more of a problem with the quarterback situation in Minnesota.
17:03If JJ McCarthy doesn't take a step forward, if Kyler Murray is horrid, as we've seen over the last few seasons from
17:10Kyler Murray, because the Kyler Murray problem is real, especially when we talk about his inability to throw over the middle of
17:17the field, which is not changing in Minnesota. It's not changing anywhere unless they design a step stool for him to play
17:24on in the pocket because he cannot access the middle of the field.
17:28And over the last two seasons, 32.2% of Jefferson's target volume have come in the middle of the field, zero to 19 yards from the line of scrimmage.
17:37So my problem so much or worries with Justin Jefferson is more of a quarterback issue and a small step back in his route data.
17:45When you really pull open the hood, I like a lot of other wide receivers over Justin Jefferson this year for that reason.
17:52All right, gentlemen, I like to think there's a timeline where both of you are reasonable people.
17:57I'm going to offer you arbitration on this because I do understand that maybe Kyler Murray isn't the fix in a lot of people's eyes.
18:05I also understand not wanting to neglect the all world talent that is Justin Jefferson because he is all world work ethic talent.
18:12We've seen it time and time again. Nobody gets open faster more often than Justin Jefferson.
18:17He is the, he is the measuring stick. He is what I teach my young football players to be like.
18:23We talk about all the things that he does all the time.
18:27In fact, just on Monday night, we did route tree and I was talking about Justin Jefferson and we're talking about why
18:34he gets open, how he gets open, how he uses his lower half, how he drives down that foot and pivots off.
18:41And yet here we are. I want to see if we can get some sort of reasonable agreement here before we let the jury ultimately decide.
18:49I don't know if the boys will say yes or no.
18:53Can I get you both to agree and move to wide receiver?
18:56Let's say nine. Nine. I'll split the difference with both of you in arbitration.
19:01Derek Brown, would you be willing to move him up in between, let's say, AJ Brown and George Pickens?
19:07I will move him to wide receiver nine. I will not move him, Judge Joey, above AJ Brown.
19:12That I cannot do. But I do agree to wide receiver nine.
19:16All right. Well, we might have an arbitration case here unless Andrew Erickson is steadfast.
19:21Andrew Erickson, are you staying at wide receiver six or can I tempt you with meeting in the middle and avoiding a
19:28messy, messy jury trial here by combat? Think about the kids.
19:31The only thing I'll agree to is to ranking him behind AJ Brown.
19:35But I can't move him outside of the top six because that's where he finishes every single year when he has a
19:42veteran quarterback throwing him the football and not a guy starting his first NFL games like happened last year with J.J.
19:48McCarthy. We've seen Jefferson Jefferson have success with Nick Mullins as his quarterback, like Carson Wentz as his quarterback.
19:54He's going to be in the top six when it's all said and done.
19:59But I've AJ Brown at five. So that's why I agree with you, bro.
20:03I'm still taking Brown. I would like to also add in a late piece of evidence to this conversation.
20:09Oh, I wait, wait, wait. Are we talking about discovery?
20:12Because I worked on all my court terms before I came here to the show today.
20:17That's a pre-trial phase where both parties exchange evidence.
20:20Has Andrew Erickson seen this evidence or no? We have discussed this evidence on a previous tailgate show.
20:26So he has been previewed. Then I will allow it.
20:29I will allow it. The motion is allowed. Continue.
20:32Proceed. I would like to also enter into evidence the release date for Call of Duty into said outlook for Justin Jefferson.
20:38It's this season. The release date is when? It's this season during the season.
20:43I will provide those details for you right now.
20:46Well, you should have that on hand. You can't say like you're wasting the court time if you don't have that earlier.
20:53I have to present it first and see if it's accepted, Judge.
20:56Easy. I'm going to hold you in contempt. Don't raise your voice at me, Brown.
21:01October 23rd, 2026. That's problematic. That's still midway through the season.
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21:26You said to me, yo, you know, keep at it because you let me rap for you.
21:32It was magical for all of us. We made it!
21:35We made it! I mean, yeah, I'm like, we?
21:38You know, I'm like, I know these guys, but who are you?
21:41I'm MC Jin, and this is Laugh But Not Lease.
21:44I'll be chatting with guests from all walks of life about the power of humor when it comes to facing difficult times,
21:51like the co-founder of Rough Riders, Darren D. Dean.
21:54Talking about as a kid, do you remember that we met even way before that?
21:59Let me think. Did you walk up to the gate?
22:02That was me, D. That was you? That was me.
22:05The day we found out that you and the whole crew was at Hit Factory, the mission was to get me to
22:12go to the gate, start freestyling, and see if I could get in the studio.
22:17I'm rapping, and then suddenly I hear a voice, hey, open the gate, let him in.
22:22The gate slowly went, gung, gung, gung, gung, gung, gung.
22:25They all, they're watching this, and they watch me walk into there, and that is a moment that I will remember for the rest of my life.
22:33Listen to Laugh But Not Lease with MC Jin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
22:40All right, we're going to see if we can get a result here from the people.
22:45In the meantime, as we are awaiting said result, I also want to remind everybody, of course, about our Discord over here,
22:52our Discord of Fantasy Pros community chat, other fans that's all here.
22:55Look how excited I am in this picture about it.
22:58Fantasypros.com slash chat. Oh, I can join leagues. I can do mock drafts.
23:03I can have all kinds of fun. Look at me.
23:06I love Discord. It's the greatest thing ever. Go join it.
23:09It's free. It's fun, and if you're premium, you get even more stuff.
23:13You can even be on the shows. Fitz and Worm got a show on there.
23:18Boggs and Fitz got a show on there. 5 p.m.
23:21Eastern, Tuesday and July 4th, there's a show, and then also 5 p.m.
23:25Eastern, the third Tuesday of every month, you bring a hot dish, and you sit there, and you talk football, and you will be on the show.
23:33So again, fantasypros.com slash chat. It's free. It's fun.
23:36Go join our Discord today, and with that being said, I think we finally have a verdict here when it comes to
23:43Justin Jefferson, and this one is a larger number than the last one.
23:4768% of the chat says that they are, in fact, drafting Justin Jefferson.
23:51The after is draft him. That's the answer. Andrew Erickson's two for two.
23:55Feeling good. All those hours watching Legally Blonde is really coming in handy right now.
24:00They really have. If only you had the blonde hair.
24:03If only you had the blonde hair. What's that move they do?
24:07Where they dip, and then they snap. The bend and snap.
24:10Bend and snap. Bend and snap. This has become a kangaroo court.
24:14God, Lord. You watch your tone, young man. You watch your tone with me.
24:18I think you need the glasses on to sit here and holler at me like that, old man.
24:24You better not come back. You should at least wear your tuxedo shirt next time.
24:29You are not in a proper attire for this courtroom, and I've already told you once.
24:34I didn't feel like it'd be proper attire, because the only tuxedo shirt that I have these days, Judge, doesn't have sleeves.
24:41That's even more egregious than what I'm wearing. That's fine.
24:44It's formal in the front, and on the sides, it's a party.
24:48I'll allow it. Just saying. I'll allow it. All right, let's get to the next man in the middle here that we are going to chat about here.
24:56Let's bring up our latest defendant, I guess. I don't know if they defend themselves.
25:01Ah, Lad McConkie. Ah, Lad McConkie. One of my favorite rookies two years ago, but a guy that was kind of fading last year a little bit.
25:09I just didn't like the ADP. I thought I went a little too high.
25:14Unfortunately, things went south for the Chargers offensive line.
25:17Justin Herbert was on a weekly basis fighting for his life, and Lad McConkie's stats did suffer.
25:22However, you look at the projections here. 76 receptions, almost 1,000 yards, nearly seven touchdowns.
25:27Andrew Erickson has him at wide receiver 17. Derek Brown, not too happy with Lad McConkie, who, by the way, I did
25:33draft today in that same mock draft. That show should be up probably at some point in the next 24 hours.
25:40Go peep it on our YouTube channel. Great guest, Mason Dodd from the Fantasy Flock, joined myself and Derek Brown.
25:46Really fun times. But Derek Brown, wide receiver 28.
25:49I can understand not loving Lad McConkie, but dear sir, dear God, it feels like you hate him at wide receiver 28.
25:56Explain yourself. Well, those projections that you're also referencing from fantasypros.com put him as wide receiver 26, closer to my ranking and
26:03not the industry standard and not where Andrew Erickson is.
26:06I hate when you use logic because that's good.
26:09That's good. So the other worry for me with Lad McConkie meeting this expectation and drafting him as a mid-wide receiver 2 is where is the ceiling?
26:17I don't see the ceiling. Because if you look at Lad McConkie over the last two years, 22.9%, 19.8% target share, 24%
26:24target per route run rate, 19% target per route run rate, first read shares of 29.1% and 20.4%.
26:30If we are drafting Lad McConkie in the year 2026 as a wide receiver 2, I would like him to have wide receiver 1 upside.
26:38Unfortunately, his target earning ability has not even been close to that.
26:41Because if you look at last year, Judge, amongst the top 12 wide receivers and fantasy points per game, they earned on
26:48average a 26.5% target share, a 29.1% target per route run rate, and a 33.8% first read share.
26:54Lad McConkie in his two seasons in the NFL has never sniffed close to those numbers, Judge.
26:59So how are we going to rank him and draft him as a wide receiver 2 with upside when that upside doesn't seemingly exist?
27:07And our site projections agree with me. Questions for you.
27:10I have a few, so I'm going to cross-examine you a little bit.
27:14Here's what I want to know. A, does your opinion change in PPR leagues as opposed to like a half-point PPR in Lad McConkie?
27:21No, because I worry about the passing volume. Mike McDaniel has gone run heavy in two seasons and pass heavy in two seasons.
27:28We do not know which version of Mike McDaniel we are going to get in this offense.
27:34So he might only have 110 targets. I will lead the witness.
27:38Has he ever had a quarterback at his disposal, Mike McDaniel, the caliber of Justin Herbert?
27:43He has not. But I will also push back against the judge's argument or question.
27:47By the way, hold on. Crypto Steve says a judge doesn't cross-examine.
27:51I'll do whatever I want. This is Judge Joey.
27:54This is his court, Crypto Steve. You listen here, Crypto Steve, with your little Grogu.
27:58That's the great avatar. Your little Grogu avi. Don't tell me how to act in my court, young man.
28:04I'll hold you in contempt. You're out of order.
28:07Let me tell you something, Crypto Steve. Back to the chat, Crypto Steve.
28:11You can't trust Crypto Steve's opinion on things. What can you possibly trust in life?
28:16You can't trust a crypto, bro. Who can you trust?
28:19Come on. That's what I say. But. I'm waiting for that Derek Brown meme coin so I can pump and dump it.
28:26That not even. Yeah. Phrasing. Phrasing, Judge. Phrasing. That's all I'll say.
28:30I know exactly what I was saying. I said it anyway.
28:33Continue. The defense rest, Judge. I need to collect my phone.
28:37I better. Yeah. Andrew Erickson. Let me bring you over to you.
28:40Debro needs to break for lunch. Apparently. Debro needs a recess.
28:44Give him a recess. Andrew Erickson. Let's really talk about this here because he does have Mike McDaniel.
28:49He doesn't have Keenan Allen around, which has also been kind of a kind of a wrinkle for Lad McConkie in his career.
28:57I feel like I and when you remove Keenan Allen from the Chargers and you add in an offensive play caller like
29:03Mike McDaniel, it's hard to not get excited about the potential Lad McConkie.
29:08Now, granted, you're even two spots higher. You have him at 17.
29:11Consen's at 19. Derek Brown is at 28, which is frankly a little crazy to me.
29:16Like I can't put him where Carnell Tate is or, you know, Alec Pierce is.
29:21And that's what you're asking me to do with Lad McConkie.
29:24I think that's a little crazy. So talk to me about defending your rank that's actually even higher than the ECR on Lad.
29:32Well, Lad McConkie finished wide receiver 28 last year.
29:34So, I mean, we're starting from rock bottom here.
29:37But last year, to your point, Joe, what's different?
29:40What changed from his rookie year versus Judge Joe?
29:43Please address the thank you. What's the big change is there's no more Keenan Allen.
29:48I think that I personally and I think a lot of us kind of shrugged off Keenan Allen's addition last year where no lad's a stud.
29:56He came out his rookie year, had a breakout campaign, led all of the rookie wide receivers.
30:01He was top 10 yards per route run as a rookie.
30:04He was better than Brian Thomas Jr., better than Malik Neighbors, better than Brock Bowers on a per route run basis.
30:11And Keenan Allen came back to the Chargers with his buddy, Justin Herbert, and messed it all up.
30:17To be totally honest, he led the team in targets, specifically on third downs where Lad thrived as a rookie.
30:23But now you're removing Keenan Allen and his 122 targets from this offense.
30:27You look at the splits just from his rookie year to his second season, Lad McConkie in full PPR, 16 PPR points
30:34per game as a rookie without Keenan Allen. With Keenan Allen, that was down to 11 points per game in full PPR.
30:41His receiving yards, 79 receiving yards per game without Keenan Allen as a rookie.
30:45Last year, 48.3 receiving yards per game. So I do see upside with Ladin Conk because I just look exactly at what
30:52happened his rookie year when Keenan Allen wasn't part of this offense.
30:5617 games. He had 91 catches for nearly 1,350 yards and eight touchdowns.
31:00There were five receivers last year that hit 1,350 receiving yards.
31:03That's top five level numbers for me. So, and that's not even accounting for him having an elite target share because with Mike McDaniel's offense, correct.
31:11I agree with Debro where I'm not exactly sure if it's going to be pass heavy, if it's going to run heavy.
31:18All I know is it's going to be efficient and it's going to score touchdowns.
31:23And when push comes to shove, that's what I want when it comes to my fantasy wide receivers.
31:28That's what Ladin Conk has been. That's what he was at Georgia.
31:32He was super efficient. Even he wasn't like commanding like elite levels of targets, even as a rookie, he was still super, super efficient.
31:40So I'm betting on the efficiency to drive Ladin Conk's volume and for Mike McDaniel and Justin Herbert to give him a
31:47chances in the red zone to score touchdowns. And that's why I'm high on Ladin Conk taking off in his chargers offense.
31:53Again, I'm not going to say no to many chargers this year.
31:57And I still think his price is more than palatable wide receiver 19.
32:01Again, I'm going to have him inside my top 15 wide receivers, even though he finished that high as a rookie.
32:08So for those reasons, that's why I like Ladin being a little bit ahead of consensus on him.
32:13All right. So let us talk about the downside a little bit too.
32:18If indeed they are run heavy, right? This is a question we kind of bandied about in the tailgate show yesterday.
32:24Andrew Erickson, do you have any fears of Ladin Conk not being on the field as much as maybe we might think he would be?
32:32No, I think for me personally, every time that I've tried to fade a receiver because the team is going to be
32:39run heavy, it just runs into issues. I mean, last year, that was an argument against JSN.
32:44Seahawks are going to be run heavy. They were.
32:47It didn't matter. He was still on receiver one.
32:50Um, like I get, it's not an exact science and it's not exact like apples to apples comparison, rejecting JSN and Ladin Conk.
32:57But just as an example, I find that making that argument usually doesn't end up working when you look back on the
33:04season, how things played out is, oh, this team's going to be run heavy.
33:08Things change. The Arizona Cardinals became the past heaviest offense in the NFL because all the running backs got hurt.
33:14All their defense got hurt. And Jacoby Brissett was on our center and it completely changed from what we had to start the season.
33:22So I just wanted to add that thing you're in.
33:25Judge, may I ask the prosecution? I just want to let the jury know that they are officially in deliberation now.
33:32You may continue to make your case here as we await the results.
33:36So Derek Brown, go ahead because you're down to nothing here and I don't want you to get swept here before we even start.
33:43So go for it. I know, Mr. Erickson, you are very big on touchdown upside and especially red zone targets.
33:49So Mr. McConkie is ranked 22nd and 52nd in two seasons in the NFL.
33:54If he doesn't get higher red zone usage in this offense, which we haven't seen in two seasons, where are those touchdowns coming, sir?
34:01Where are they coming from? Big explosive plays like he did his rookie year and like J.
34:07Ascended last year. J. Ascended not that many red zone targets last year either.
34:11Have you not tied previous arguments to wide receivers and upside to red zone usage though?
34:16Correct or wrong? Yes. And if Ladd doesn't get that red zone usage, what happens?
34:21Then he'll finish close to wide receiver 20. Objection, leading the witness.
34:24He's not a witness! He's the prosecutor! I know, but I've prepared all these terms.
34:29I have my catchphrases, let me use them. I've got all these catchphrases and I got this gavel and I bought a wig again.
34:37Second year in a row. I apologize, Judge. I'm sorry.
34:40I gotta send an invoice for it. I mean, at least let me, you know, say cool stuff on this show.
34:46All right, let's go to the poll here and let's see ultimately the fate of Lad McConkie.
34:52Will he get drafted or won't he? The chat has decided, and this is our biggest number even yet.
34:5875% of people say they will indeed draft Ladd McConkie.
35:01This jury is biased! Biased, I tell you! Well, you know what?
35:04This is what happens when you don't come dressed up for court.
35:08You know, they take Andrew very seriously. They see the spectacles.
35:12They see the hair coiffed. Give me some fake glasses.
35:15No gel in the hair today. He looks very professional.
35:18How many buttons does your shirt have, Andrew? At least two?
35:21At least two buttons? There's two buttons in the shirt.
35:24It's a nice polo underneath the blazer. You look like you just got back from Bucky's.
35:29Your grandma and I, you know... What if I did, Judge?
35:33What if I did? You did, did you? Did I nail it?
35:37What if I did? I wanted to get beef jerky for the entire court.
35:41Thank you. A couple beef jerky and some monster energy drinks.
35:44It's not going well. So next time, maybe bring something better.
35:48Just saying. Just saying. All right. Let's go to the next guy here on our list.
35:53Fantasy court. Hope everybody's having a good time here today on the stream.
35:57Make sure you like this stream. Ah, Tony Pollard.
36:00Ah, another guy that Derek Brown drafted today. Spoiler.
36:03In our mock draft show, which will appear later...
36:05I guess tomorrow, probably. More likely on Thursday. All right.
36:08So Tony Pollard running back of the Tennessee Titans.
36:11There's a couple other guys floating around that backfield too.
36:14Tajay Spears still hanging around, but he could be gone after this year.
36:18Tony Pollard could be gone after this year. So let's talk about him here because the rushing attempts, 238.7.
36:24Still put in there for 1,000 yards rushing. That's not too shabby.
36:28Six and a half rushing touchdowns. Not great. 175 half PPR points.
36:32Those are the projections here. Andrew Erickson, you have him at RB32.
36:36Derrick Brown has him at RB20. So it's a pretty big chasm here when we're talking about Tony Pollard, who came on
36:43strong at the end last year, but also very, very much about he getting his incentives, I would say, in his contract.
36:49If we all recall, remember there were some thresholds where he was going to make a couple million dollars.
36:55And of course, when money's on the line, guys typically show up.
36:59Why do you think I'm here in this week today?
37:02Okay. So Tony Pollard right now is the 29th running back in the consensus right now.
37:07It's closer to Andrew Erickson than it is to Derrick Brown.
37:11However, there is something to be said for the NFL teams that like to churn and burn the running backs on last year's of deals.
37:18They use them up, chew them up, spit them out back into free agency.
37:23So Andrew Erickson, I'm going to let you take some shots here at Tony Pollard here before Derrick Brown defends his honor.
37:30Go for it. Okay. So Tony Pollard has gotten all the volume he can handle last two seasons for the Tennessee Titans,
37:37and that has resulted in zero top 20 finishes.
37:39So he has now totaled over three. So he's averaged 300 touches per year over the last three seasons.
37:45Now totaling over 1500 career touches. If you look at the list of active players in that career amount of volume, the
37:52player is right ahead of Tony Pollard. So where he's approaching Austin Eckler, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, James Connor, guys that are
37:59nowhere near drafting because they're not being drafted because those running backs are no longer relevant in fantasy football anymore.
38:05So I'm concerned that Tony Pollard entering age 29 with all this volume compiling compiling is going to start to eat away
38:12at his production, which really hasn't been there from a ceiling perspective.
38:16I still think there's a chance that he could be in a committee with someone like Tajay Spears, who's also in a contract year.
38:23Also showed last year, Tajay Spears out-targeted Tony Pollard in terms of receptions, in terms of catches.
38:29I also think that rookie Nick Singleton has a chance to carve out a role in this offense because it's a brand new offensive coordinator.
38:37It's a brand new head coach. There's no allegiance to any of these guys in this Titans backfield, which what is the
38:43ceiling for a Titans running back anyway? According to the consensus offensive line rankings, this is a bottom three offensive line ranked unit heading into the 2026 season.
38:52So Tony Pollard last year was the RB 39 through 13 weeks.
38:56So before the incentives really started to kick in, he was virtually unplayable.
39:00You couldn't play Tony Pollard. You had to keep him on your roster because he was a player that he's a starter.
39:07He sees volume. He gets some points, but never was he a difference maker until the end of the year when he
39:14was getting loaded up with carries and touches so that he could hit his contract incentives.
39:1911th worst in missed tackles force per attempt last year, minimum of a hundred carries.
39:23I have concerns of whether he's actually going to be a bell cow under Brian Dayball, who has not been shy of
39:30unleashing day three rookie running backs to lead his backfields.
39:33Look at last year's Kim Scadaboo. The year before that, it was Tyrone Tracy back in Buffalo.
39:39They drafted a guy in the third round, Devin Singletary.
39:42He eventually took over that backfield. So why can't Nick Singleton be one of those types of players as another day three
39:49rookie running back that Brian Dayball takes under his wing and has an increased role?
39:53So for those reasons, that's why I'm out on Tony Pollard, because I frankly don't see where there is an upside case attached to him.
40:01Looking here in the ledger about Tony Pollard, some fun facts.
40:05His family owns a barbecue joint in Memphis. I'd very much like to attend that.
40:09I'd like to sample a barbecue. His brother also played football, actually works there as well at the family barbecue shop.
40:16Also, apparently when he ran his 40 at the combine in 2019, it was slower than expected, 4.52.
40:22And he blamed it on food poisoning from Chipotle, which is, I also think, a very good story.
40:27I'd never heard that story before. So I'm learning all these fun things about Tony Pollard and the discovery process about him.
40:34The other thing I learned is he does have four straight years of a thousand yards rushing.
40:39And Derek Brown, in a landscape of running backs, when we start to get down into that range of the RB2s, consistency is, well, pretty tricky to find.
40:48It is. And I think that the ECR ranking and Andrew Erickson's ranking of Tony Pollard is dismissive, egregious, some could say.
40:55Considering if you look at, because Mr. Erickson brings up Dayball's history, although he neglects to mention that, okay, when Cam Scadaboo
41:02was the guy, he was the clear, unquestioned workhorse of the entire offense.
41:06After his injury, Tyrone Tracy was the clear bell cow.
41:09Now, previous seasons, when Singletary wasn't up to task, Tyrone Tracy, clear bell cow.
41:13Previous years, Reggie Bush, Jamal Charles, and Peyton Hillis was a clear bell cow for Brian Dayball.
41:19He leans on one running back yearly, unless there's an injury.
41:22With Tony Pollard, Mr. Erickson also brought up his missed tackle rate.
41:26What he failed to mention was amongst the 49 qualifying running backs.
41:30He was also middle of the pack, 25th in explosive run rate, but 22nd in yards after contact per attempt.
41:36And I think the idea that this offensive line is not good is honestly just false in the sense of last year,
41:43in a run blocking perspective, they were 13th best in yards before contact per attempt.
41:48And Mr. Erickson has mentioned on previous shows, everywhere he can be heard, that he believes the Titans will be an improved team this year.
41:55So is that not offensively, Mr. Erickson? Not more scoring opportunities for Mr.
41:59Pollard? Better play for Cam Ward? More weapons for Cam Ward and Tony Pollard for scoring opportunities?
42:05Better defense? Mr. Erickson? Are they not going to be improved?
42:08All right, all right, all right. Stop badgering the witness.
42:11Or just badgering the witness. It's not a witness, Judge!
42:14I know, I told you. I have this whole thing, man.
42:18I got all these terms I googled. Andrew, it is a better coaching staff.
42:22It is still a young quarterback. It is a coach who's been around the block a little bit, too, in the NFL,
42:29along with another guy who's been a head coach and the offensive coordinator now in Dable.
42:34I mean, it does feel like when you have those young developing quarterbacks, you want to surround them with somebody who's a
42:41veteran guy, more like a Tony Pollard, no? Tajay Spears is a veteran, too.
42:45He's been a leader for four years. He's a veteran of the physically unable to perform list.
42:51What do you mean? He was healthy last year.
42:53He was the reason why Tony Pollard wasn't good, because he couldn't separate himself from Spears, who was seeing more targets than he was.
43:01Targets are important. Targets are more valuable than carries.
43:04And they're different coaching staff. Yes, exactly. One that might invite three running backs to be used.
43:09Again, also, like, objection. Devin Singletary was in a constant committee with Zach Moss and Frank Gore, and even LeSean McCoy was
43:16in a committee at times under Brian Dable. So I think that that is a little...
43:21I mean, you're going back to Jamal Charles. Of course he's going to use Jamal Charles as a bell guy.
43:27He's Jamal freaking Charles. And looking at Tony Pollard's game log from last year, too, you know, we did have the coaching firing.
43:34Things did turn over last year. Week 14, 25 for 161, two touchdowns.
43:38Week 15, 14 carries for 104 and a touchdown.
43:41Then 21 for 102, 15 for 85. And then week 18, nobody really played.
43:46So interesting stuff. I get a very strong finish.
43:48But again, I feel like it was a little motivation of money.
43:52But if motivation of money is what we're after, Tony Pollard, what's more motivating than a free agent here?
43:58I ask you. I implore you, gentlemen. Let's go to the folks here for the final decision and see what's going on here.
44:05Before we do, I want to remind everybody also of another fabulous thing here at Fantasy Pros.
44:11The Draft Assistant. Don't be a tool. Use the tools.
44:14Right now, Draft Assistant at FantasyPros.com slash assistant or just download the Fantasy Pros app.
44:18It will help you make all the picks in every single draft you're in.
44:23It syncs to your leagues in real time. You can compare players, track your rosters, builds.
44:28And, of course, you can also make sure that you are making the right selections.
44:33It's going to tell you also what's happening around you so you don't lose track.
44:37Let's say you're at the 10th pick and you want to take a tight end, but teams 11 and 12 already have tight ends.
44:45It'll remind you, hey, don't take a tight end here, stupid.
44:48Wait another couple picks and take somebody else instead.
44:51See, that's what you need. You need the Draft Assistant.
44:54Go use it today. Seriously, the tools. Amazing at Fantasy Pros.
44:58So if you haven't tried them ever, give them a whirl this year because it will absolutely change your perspective.
45:04It syncs to everything. Yahoo, CBS, Sleeper, ESPN, you name it.
45:07It syncs to it. All right, Derek Brown, I'm just hoping at some point you get a W here because it's becoming a bit of a bloodbath.
45:16Let's see what the final poll is here for Tony Pollard.
45:19It's a lower, it's a closer number this time.
45:22Closest one we've had actually. 63% of the chat say that they are not the father.
45:27No, they are saying that they are not drafting Tony Pollard.
45:30Tony Pollard is a void. Andrew Erickson wins again.
45:33He is now four for four. Derek Brown, you're over four.
45:37I mean, we do have one more guide. You just want to quit or you want to just play it out.
45:43Blame the jury. Well, maybe you're flying too close to the sun with some of these takes.
45:48I don't know. I don't know. I actually personally, I do think Tony Pollard is valuable where he's going.
45:54I don't know about putting it in 20. Thank you, Judge.
45:58I appreciate those kind words. Well, 20 is tough because that's near Cam Scadaboo and I want Scadaboo.
46:03It's near David Montgomery and I want David Montgomery.
46:06But I definitely think more than 29. Like I would take him over Chuba Hubbard, probably Jalen Warren and probably Jadarian Price too.
46:13Because I think a lot of people are overrating Jadarian Price right now the first six weeks of the season.
46:20Our RB26 and our site projections, by the way, too.
46:23All right. Fair enough. All right. We've got one more guy to go.
46:27Thank you everybody for joining with us here and staying with us for Fantasy Court.
46:32Ah, Travis Kelsey. Married man. Travis Kelsey. I did not get my invitation to the wedding.
46:37I was a little surprised. I'm not going to lie.
46:40I thought I was going to get invited. I did not.
46:43But that's fine. That's cool. Whatever. You know, it's not like I don't live in the area and I didn't have anything to do that night.
46:51I could have gone. You know, I had just had my suit pressed.
46:55Could have certainly gone to the wedding. You know, dance the night away.
46:59It's fine. Travis Kelsey, another year older. And right now, projections have him at 76 receptions, about 784 yards, five touchdowns, 147 half PPR points per game.
47:08Now, last season, Travis Kelsey was still productive, I would say.
47:11He finished as, right now, the tight end three, actually, surprisingly, last year.
47:15Not something I think a lot of people saw coming.
47:18It's 76 catches last year, just five touchdowns. But we did have some injuries and some issues here and there last year at the tight end position.
47:27But then again, some guys really come on late.
47:30Colston Loveland coming on late. You had, unfortunately, the injury to Tucker Craft, right?
47:34But in fancy points per game, Travis Kelsey is not quite where the Tucker Crafts, the Lovelands, McBride, the Bowers, and even Tyler Warren might be this year.
47:43So let's talk about it. Right now, the consensus has Travis Kelsey as the ninth tight end.
47:48That's where Derrick Brown has him. He's a consensus.
47:51Erickson has him all the way at 14. So, Derrick Brown, talk to me about Travis Kelsey, why he still is a
47:58top 10 tight end, why the consensus is right, why are you right?
48:02Discuss. Nothing has changed for the Kansas City passing attack this offseason.
48:06What new weapon have they brought in that's going to take away targets from Travis Kelsey?
48:11He's been the tight end seven and tight end nine over the last two years.
48:15And I know he's not the Travis Kelsey of old or he's old Travis Kelsey now.
48:20He's also tight end eight in our site projections.
48:23Nobody is taking his title as the target leader for the Kansas City Chiefs this year.
48:28They don't have a wide receiver on that roster that's going to do that, even though like I know Rasheed Rice is
48:35going to get his targets when he's on the field, if he can hopefully not do anything stupid before the season kicks off again.
48:43And even likely, I've seen him three times in my court just today.
48:47That's fair. That's fair. I know camera people have tried to get snippets as he's been leaving the courtroom.
48:53But with Travis Kelsey, even though he is not at the height of his powers anymore, he's not been bad.
48:59Amongst 59 qualifying tight ends last year, 19th in yards per route run, 18th in yards after catch per reception and 16 in first downs per route run.
49:08So with this and the passing volume that will still happen in Kansas City, because they're not going to turn into a
49:14run heavy run centric offense, even despite adding Kenneth Walker judge.
49:18Travis Kelsey is still going to be a top 12 tight end.
49:22He certainly did fade at the end of the year, but obviously the Patrick Mahomes injury had a lot to do with that.
49:29So, Andrew, let's talk about that, because I feel like maybe your ranking is a little bit carrying over based upon Patrick Mahomes health entering 2026.
49:37My ranking is based on where the puck is going to end up being here with Travis Kelsey entering his age 37 season.
49:44We're already starting to see the age cliff. The efficiency marks are falling off.
49:48His yards per route run is falling off. Lowest of his career over the last 13 seasons.
49:54You talk about the receptions last year. 76 were his lowest since 2015.
49:58He's finished with five or fewer touchdowns in each of the last three seasons.
50:02And I look at the target competition, the names haven't changed, but the guys are actually going to be in the lineup.
50:09Xavier Worthy is not going to be missing half the season with this shoulder injury that was inflicted by the guy on
50:16trial here, Travis Kelsey, who made it a lot easier to see targets because he injured Xavier Worthy to start the season.
50:23Rashi Rice. Right now, it looks like he's going to be available for the Chiefs or the season starting in week one.
50:30We'll see how things shake out. But when Rice and Kelsey are on the field, there's no debate who's getting more targets.
50:37It's Rashi Rice. Especially in the red zone where Rashi Rice was second in red zone targets per game last year when he was on the field.
50:45Why do you think Kelsey's touchdowns have fallen off the last three seasons?
50:49Because Rashi Rice has been on the Chiefs the last three seasons, even in limited sample size.
50:54So Rice or Kelsey has seen an average of two fewer targets per game when Rice has been in the lineup over
51:01the last 11 games they've played together. To me, this is fantasy football 101 when it comes to tight ends.
51:08What do we always preach? Stay out of the middle.
51:11Tight end nine is right smack dab in the middle of the tight ends that you don't want to draft because they're
51:18more likely to finish like similar to the players going after them than players going ahead of them.
51:23It would surprise again. It wouldn't surprise me if Kelsey ends up finishing as a back end tight end one.
51:29But I don't want to draft a back end tight end one.
51:33I want to draft a guy that's going to be a top five tight end like Isaiah Likely, who's going after Travis Kelsey.
51:40That's who I want instead. And that's why I have Kelsey at tight end 14.
51:45All right. But don't you take into account perhaps some of the unknowns of those guys like Isaiah Likely, who have never
51:52finished in that range or, you know, some other sleeper tight ends who have never done it before.
51:58This is a guy going to the Hall of Fame, Andrew.
52:01And I understand that he's not the player he was, but the ADP certainly isn't what it is either.
52:07Just because he's tight end nine right now doesn't mean that he is necessarily going off the board super early in draft.
52:14You still can't support the old standby of Travis Kelsey, knowing what you're getting with him and Patrick Mahomes.
52:20I think there are guys that you can get more upside with later in drafts, whereas Kelsey, to me, it seems like
52:27a player that is definitely not going to finish as a repeat as a top five guy.
52:32He's just getting worse. He's gotten worse the last three seasons.
52:35We're seeing it. And now he's married again. Okay.
52:38He's got Taylor Swift to go home. Do you think he's going to be after practice catching balls from Mahomes or is
52:45he going to go home to see a super or to see his pop star superstar wife?
52:50I side with the latter. Derek, Andrew does make a really good point.
52:54If I'm correct, Andrew also married a girl named Taylor and his work has really been worse ever since.
53:00Just saying. I would like to. Oh, darn it.
53:03I was going to see if I could enter.
53:06I'm sorry. I know that was a really good line.
53:09I just said. That was a really good line.
53:12I was looking to see if Taylor Swift had any concert dates in 2026.
53:16Apparently, she is not going to be on tour, so I can't even use that.
53:21She is not going to be on tour this year.
53:24That's not happening. So, Derek Brown, any final thoughts on Travis Kelsey before we get the results?
53:29And maybe you get one on the board here.
53:32So, this doesn't become a shutout? I understand that there is not upside with Travis Kelsey to be top three, top five.
53:39But my ranking represents where I think he's going to finish this season.
53:43And it's where he's finished the last two seasons pretty much.
53:47So, how does he end up outside the top 12, Erickson?
53:50Like, with the target volume and everything. Like, does he score no touchdowns this year?
53:55Like, that's the problem that I'm having here. Well, I mean, he's probably not going to score more than five, considering he
54:02hasn't done it in the last three seasons. Which made him the tight end eight last year in fantasy points per game.
54:08So, he was tight end eight when he scored five touchdowns, and that was when all the Chiefs receivers were hurt.
54:15That's not going to happen two years in a row.
54:18All right. Let's take a look at the results before we do.
54:22Shout out to our sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. But, this verdict is brought to you by Hard Rock Bet.
54:28This thorough ass-kicking on fantasy court. Sponsored by Florida Sportsbook.
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55:51All right. We have our final result. Three quarters of the audience.
55:5576 percent, again, not close here, have decided on the fate of Travis Kelsey.
55:59And the fate of Derek Brown on this show and whether or not he gets invited back.
56:0576 percent of people here in our audience today active say that they are avoiding Travis Kelsey.
56:10Andrew Erickson, the clean sweep. Unbelievable. Andrew Erickson, they say, look good, play good.
56:14And I think it took that to heart today.
56:17I think the professionalism came across to the audience.
56:20And remember, we're going to be doing this every Wednesday, 3 p.m.
56:24Eastern. So set your calendars. Subscribe to the channel.
56:27Make sure you ring the bell till it goes ding so you don't miss fantasy court.
56:32Andrew Erickson, I think this might be the first ever sweep to start off the season like this.
56:37It's pretty incredible. How do you feel right now?
56:40Miss trial. It feels good that I'm with the people and I was able to get the jury on my side here.
56:47But to give credit to Debro, he went 4-1 when we did fantasy court last year.
56:52And he was ahead of both myself and the jury.
56:55So he ended up on top. That being said, he also faded all of the picks last year and three guys did get injured.
57:03But he was ultimately proven correct. He was only wrong about Travis Etienne.
57:07That was the only hit that I got last year.
57:10So I don't expect to go 5-0. It's very unlikely that I'm right about all of these picks.
57:15But as long as I'm right about the guys that matter the most, like Etienne last year, I'll be happy.
57:22All right. Question for you, Andrew. Of all these conversations today, which one do you think you would be wrong about?
57:28What's the one that you would say, you know, this is the one that I have the most fear of being wrong about?
57:35The most fear about being wrong about? Yeah, where you can see like, I can see this actually not going my way
57:42with, despite all the data I've got. Is it McConkie?
57:45Is it CMC? It feels like CMC. It would either be CMC or McConkie.
57:50Again, the CMC conversation is pretty, I think Debro outlined it.
57:53It's binary, right? If he stays healthy, I'll be wrong.
57:56If he doesn't, then I'll be right, right? But Ladd, I would say that there are, again, if he has to be
58:03efficient, because I don't expect a insane type of 25, 26% target share.
58:07It's never really been Ladd's game. So, and the Chargers offense, how they score their points, do they throw, do they run?
58:14I think it still remains to be seen, even though we all believe the offense will be good.
58:20How they'll score their points, we'll have to wait and see.
58:23Derek Brown, your online law degree from Southern New Hampshire University really did not get it done today.
58:29What are you going to do to train for the next episode of Draft Court so you don't get shut out again?
58:36I will continue to have faith, despite today, in the jury and in the people, and justice will prevail.
58:42That's all I'll say. Justice will prevail. That is the incorrect answer.
58:45The correct answer is bribe the judge. Bribe the judge.
58:48I will accept free stuff. But all the witnesses, Judge Joey!
58:52All the witnesses! Witnesses! That's all right. We put those witnesses away.
58:56You don't see nothing. That's all right. That's how they do it in the neighborhood.
59:00Let me put the fishes, man. All right. This wig is itching the hell out of me, so I'm going to call
59:07it a day and officially adjourn this court. It's been a wonderful time.
59:11I want to thank Derek Brown for all of his efforts.
59:15I want to thank Andrew Erickson for dressing up for the occasion and, of course, our incredible team behind the scenes of
59:22production making all the graphics and getting everything ready for this show today.
59:26We will be back again next Wednesday, 3 p.m.
59:28Eastern, for another episode of Judge Joey and Fantasy Draft Court.
59:32Court is adjourned! Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
59:36If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
59:45Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
59:51The World Cup is underway and it's been incredible.
59:54On our podcast, The Away End, with Daniel Alarcon and John Green, we're talking about the games that have delighted us, the
60:01teams that have inspired us, what we're loving and what surprised us, all through the lens of being massive fans of the world's most beautiful game.
60:09Daniel, this tournament has been magical so far. There's so much to love and I can hardly believe the drama that the group stage brought us.
60:17And now it's time for us to talk about the teams that are left as the field is whittled down to one World Cup champion on July 19th.
60:26Listen to The Away End with Daniel Alarcon and John Green on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
60:33This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
