Week 7 Fantasy Football WR Rankings: Breakout Candidates & Risky Starts (Ep. 2282)

A.J. Brown should be ranked closer to a top 12 fantasy wide receiver based on usage standpoint despite being ranked outside the top 20; he has a great matchup against the Chicago Bears on Thursday night where he'll face Jalen Johnson for the majority of routes. If he had caught the 60-yard touchdown pass, he'd be consensus top 15. The speaker is not wavering on A.J.B. this week and thinks he should be started more often than not as a top 15 play.

A.J. Brown's ball tracking looked broken in his first game back after missing since week one; he hadn't played since week one and may need multiple weeks to get right. The speaker was spooked by not just the hands but the ball tracking. However, against the Bears this week, the matchup is great and Jalen Johnson is not a good cornerback anymore, so A.J. Brown is expected to win that matchup.

Ranked fourth among wide receivers in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings.

Brandon Cooks might be the number one wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers against the Falcons, who have been the biggest pass funnel defense in the league this year. Even if Christian Kirk is active in his first game back, Cooks would be ranked ahead of Kirk, though it wouldn't surprise if Kirk was more the go-to guy.

Puka Nacua ranks Brandin Cooks ahead of Christian Kirk in Week 7 despite Kirk's return from injury, citing the 49ers' matchup against the Falcons, who have been the biggest pass funnel defense in the league this year; Cooks is the preferred start in Kirk's first game back.

Ranked fifth among wide receivers in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings.

Ranked eighth among wide receivers in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings.

Puka Nacua notes that in Christian Kirk's first game back from injury, Cooks is ranked ahead of him; however, Nacua acknowledges it wouldn't surprise him if Kirk was more the go-to guy, suggesting uncertainty about Kirk's immediate role and target share upon return.

Christian Kirk is returning from injury and in his first game back, it wouldn't surprise if he was more the go-to guy for the 49ers than Brandon Cooks, though Cooks would still be ranked ahead of Kirk.

Ranked sixth among wide receivers in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings.

The number one receiver for Green Bay; just so good. Watson is the clear WR1 in the Packers offense ahead of Matthew Golden and Tucker Craft.

Watson ranks second to Matthew Golden in target share on the Packers despite being a top-tier receiver; Puka Nacua ranks him at 8 versus ECR's 6, placing him a couple spots below consensus. The concern centers on Josh Jacobs' potential impact: if the Packers throw significantly less due to increased run volume, receivers seeing lower overall volume could be hurt more than Golden, who leads the team in target share. Watson's consistency has lagged Golden's over recent weeks, making him more vulnerable to game script changes.

Ranked seventh among wide receivers in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings.

Emeka Egbuka received 16 targets last week and in three full games with Jalen Daniels has seen 29 targets, which ranks top five. Though he's only caught 15 of them (51.7% catch rate), he should have scored two touchdowns last week as Jalen Daniels missed him. He's the number one target in the offense and faces the Carolina Panthers in an in-division matchup expected to be back and forth. The speaker is chasing the volume and not afraid of the Panthers matchup.

Emeka Egbuka has averaged only 6.6 yards per catch and 3.4 yards per target in Jalen Daniels' three starts. The Buccaneers' offense feels very constricted with Jalen Daniels at quarterback, which is an issue for Egbuka. While the pass volume and target volume have been great, he's not turning that into a lot of yardage. He's also scored a touchdown each of his last two games but had a bad game with drops.

Knows where to go with the football; the offense runs through Malik Neighbors and Isaiah Likely to a lesser extent. Likely's involvement depends on JJ McCarthy's ability to get him the ball accurately, even on off-target throws.

Looked really good last week; young quarterbacks often struggle but McCarthy may have learned something sitting and watching. Things may become easier for him this season. His performance against the fierce Houston Texans defense will be closely analyzed over the next couple of weeks while the Giants are on bye in week eight.

Ranked third among wide receivers in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings.

Jalen Waddle being ranked as a top 30 wide receiver is laughable according to the speaker. He's ranked wide receiver 29 by both analysts, with one noting that it only took one of the worst teams in the NFL (the Broncos) to get him right, and that Bo Nix is expected to look like vintage John Elway this week.

Josh Downs has not been good this year by any measure. He's being thrust into an elevated role but hasn't delivered. He had a bad game with a couple of drops and almost scored a touchdown on an end-around but got hit at the one-yard line. The speaker feels silly for ranking Josh Downs as high as he did in draft rankings. Against the Minnesota Vikings defense, which is an absolute gauntlet, the speaker would not chase these 11-12 targets with Josh Downs.

Historical context for concern with JJ McCarthy: McCarthy's performance with Jefferson last year was poor, with Jefferson being 'totally nuked' week after week despite being a fantasy WR1 every week. This historical precedent raises risk concerns for Malik Neighbors' production with McCarthy starting in Week 7.

Jefferson is ranked at 10–12 by the analysts despite ECR placing him at 11 against a bad Colts defense, suggesting the consensus may be overvaluing him based on prior reputation. His season start has been disappointing: he is averaging 64.5 receiving yards per game, only about three yards better than his average last year with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback for the Vikings. This minimal improvement despite a change in quarterback situation raises questions about whether his prior-season expectations are still valid.

Jefferson is averaging 64.5 receiving yards per game, only about three yards better than his 2023 average with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback for the Vikings; he has one touchdown this year and faces a Colts defense that has been bad overall but relatively strong against outside receivers, with slot receivers exploiting their weaker slot corner position.

Despite lackluster production, Jefferson's positive metrics include a career-high 27.6% target share and career-high 79.2% catch rate; the Colts defense is weak all over the board, and with Sauce Gardner out due to a calf injury, there's no defensive back on Indianapolis who can keep up with Jefferson if the Vikings choose to attack vertically.

The Vikings offense has only had nine snaps this season with Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jordan Mason, and T.J. Hockenson all on the field together, making it difficult to predict whether Minnesota will attack the Colts' weak run defense or build Kyle Murray's confidence by slinging the ball downfield; the offensive approach remains unclear.

Keenan Allen led the team in targets last week and has gotten 29 targets over the last three weeks. He can get open in his sleep even at his advanced age (late 30s). The ranking is based on Tyler Warren probably not playing or playing but not being himself; if Tyler Warren is good to go, both Colts receivers would drop to around top 36.

Ranked ninth among wide receivers in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings.

Scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and gone over 100 yards in three of his last four games against a really bad Detroit pass defense. Playing with red-hot Jordan Love, Golden has opened eyes with his performance. Speaker admits he was wrong about the draft pick and likes him this week despite ranking him at WR13 rather than WR1.

Christian Watson is the number one receiver for Green Bay and is really good; Tucker Craft is also strong. Golden is the second option but has still opened eyes with his performance. Despite the depth chart positioning, Golden's recent production warrants consideration in WR1 range, though speaker ranks him at WR13 with some hesitation.

Golden leads the Packers in targets this season with 26% target share, ranking first on the team ahead of Christian Watson; his 42% air yard share ranks 12th among all NFL wide receivers. He caught a touchdown last week and should have caught three, representing positive touchdown regression given his reputation as a reliable pass-catcher from Texas. Over his last four weeks, he has recorded at least 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in three games, with four games this season of at least five catches and 95 receiving yards, demonstrating consistency week-to-week that exceeds Christian Watson's production. Against Detroit at Ford Field in a projected high-scoring matchup (54.5–55.5 total), Golden is positioned to bounce back after a down game where he still produced 104 yards, six catches, and a touchdown.

Michael Wilson is averaging 9.7 yards per catch, 5.5 yards per target, and 1.43 yards per route run—all poor efficiency numbers. He's being thrust into a wide receiver one role despite being a number three receiver, and with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, it's a bad combination. His target share dropped from 30% (weeks 1-4 with Marvin Harrison Jr.) to 17.5% in the last two weeks, now third on his team behind Trey McBride and Kendrick Bourne. He's ranked 56th among 74 qualifying wide receivers in yards per route run, 49th in catch rate over expectations, and 67th in EPA per target. He's the only player in football with at least 50 targets, no drops, and a negative catch rate over expectation. His air yards also dipped dramatically from 43% to 29.5%. The speaker has him ranked as fringe and doesn't feel great about it despite the volume.

Ranked 12th among wide receivers in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings.

Omar Cooper had an eye-opening performance in week six after barely playing in week one (one route, 30-yard catch before injury). He's a well-rounded, quarterback-friendly wide receiver with tough inside-outside versatility, can play in the slot or outside, is really tough after the catch, hard to tackle, and makes acrobatic catches. He won't leapfrog Garrett Wilson as the number one receiver, but with Adnay Mitchell out with a finger injury, he has a great matchup against Miami, which has one of the worst secondaries in the league. He played 82% of snaps in his return and dusted Isaiah Williams as the number two guy.

Omar Cooper should have had two touchdowns last week but for a Tim Patrick offensive pass interference call. He had six catches for 103 yards on seven targets. Facing the Miami Dolphins, who have one of the worst secondaries in the league, Cooper can be used in multiple ways, especially after the catch. He's been compared to Debo Samuel coming out (discount Debo, mini Debo). All he has done is make plays, and there's no reason to expect anything different in a juicy matchup at home against Miami.

Ranked as the top wide receiver in Week 7 ECR according to FantasyPros half-PPR rankings, facing Las Vegas.

Puka Nacua received the most targets by any Patriot this season, signaling Josh McDaniels and Drake May got their alpha number one wide receiver back in the offense and peppered him with targets.

Ryan Flornoy has been a top 24 wide receiver in back-to-back games, coming off a game where he had nine targets, caught seven for 40 yards, and had a fourth quarter touchdown. He played 87% of snaps and plays more than half of his snaps from the slot. He's coming off a season high in snaps, targets, catches, and route participation at 93%. Slot receivers have been a target against the Eagles defense all year long, making him an interesting play on Monday night.

Really good tight end in the Packers offense alongside Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Part of a strong receiving corps but not the primary target.