0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1001 of the official Establish The Run podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR.
0:09As always, joined by fellow co-founder Evan Silva. An NFL Training Camp is officially underway.
0:14Real news is flowing. I hath reached the full 3.9 inches.
0:17Silva, it's a great day to be alive. How's it going?
0:21Yeah, we're here. We're doing this on Tuesday, July 28th.
0:24And I mean, there's no turning back from now on.
0:27Like, we gotta be on for the next 5-6 months.
0:30So, it has started. I am gonna take a minute here this weekend because my brother Luke, who's an avid ETR subscriber, just had his first baby.
0:39I'm an uncle. Congratulations, Luke and Laura. Little Mary Claire.
0:42Gonna go meet her this weekend. But yeah, Hall of Fame game is a little bit different.
0:48We're a little bit over a week away. And yeah, everything's real now.
0:52Congrats to Luke. And as Evan said, yes, even Evan's brother has to pay for his own ETR subscription.
0:58So, stop reaching out to me about three ETR subs.
1:02Luke pays. Luke Silva pays as well. Anyways, on today's show, we will be discussing all the latest news and how it is affecting our rankings.
1:10We will be doing these news slash rank change shows once a week on Tuesdays until week one.
1:16So, be sure you are subscribed. It's totally free here on YouTube or your podcast feed.
1:21Before we get into it here today, reminder, peak drafting season is here.
1:25If you have a fantasy draft coming up, we can help.
1:29Our NFL early bird bundle product is now live for sale.
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1:54Again, the subscribe tab on establishtherun.com. All right, Evan, let's get into it here with news and ranking changes.
2:01First story of the day, Malik Neighbors coming off of the knee injury, not expected to open camp on PUP.
2:07I talked about this on Market Monday for a while, so you guys can go back and listen to that show, Market Monday, for more from me.
2:16But the people need your take, Silva, on the Malik Neighbors situation.
2:20Where are you at on him right now? Yeah, so this is a little bit tough to do evergreen analysis on because
2:27we're recording this on Tuesday and the Giants start practicing on Wednesday.
2:31Okay, so anyone that is not on PUP to start training camp is technically expected to practice.
2:36And so by avoiding the PUP list, Malik Neighbors, I mean, that sets him up to practice on day one of Giants training camp.
2:44Whereas, I don't know, two weeks ago, we were thinking, is Malik Neighbors going to be back by midseason?
2:50And now we got a report from Dan Duke, who does a great job covering the Giants for a long time, working
2:57for the Athletic, suggesting today that maybe Malik Neighbors could be ready for week one.
3:02So that is a huge, huge step forward for Malik Neighbors.
3:06I bumped him up from number 53 overall to 44 overall.
3:09I right now have him as wide receiver 24.
3:12I know that you guys think that he can maybe get to the point where he's being drafted at the 2-3 turn.
3:19And I agree with that. I do kind of want to maybe slowly matriculate him up the rankings as we see, like, you know, on Wednesday.
3:28Is he practicing on day one? Like, I think there's a distinct possibility that he could practice on day one of Giants training camp.
3:36So I want to do a slow matriculation, but I could see him being a 2-3 turn pick by, you know, two, three weeks from now.
3:44My big thing with this is if you are good enough to not start camp on active PUP means that they think
3:51he has a very good chance to play sometime in the first four weeks of the regular season.
3:57And if you have a good chance to play sometime in the first four weeks of the regular season, then I think
4:04by November or December, it's not crazy to think you could be 95% or 100% by November or December.
4:10And for me, like, that's what I care about most.
4:14And so we've been a little bit more aggressive than Silva moving up neighbors in the ETR ranks.
4:19We're up around 30, 31 overall right now in the ETR ranks.
4:23There's certainly a lot of risk here still, Silva.
4:26It doesn't mean that his knee is right. He has had a rough rehab.
4:31I talked about it more on Market Monday. It doesn't mean he's going to be 100%.
4:36But if he hadn't, let's say he never had this injury, Silva.
4:40I think he would have been a top 12 pick for us, right?
4:44And so to get him in the 30s now with a chance to be 100% back half the season, that's at least quite interesting to me.
4:53So, yeah. Yeah, there's still enough, I think, systemic risk with Malik neighbors to, again, maybe slow play this a little bit.
5:00That's what I'm trying to do. Although, again, if he practices on Wednesday, I'm going to have to move him up again after moving him up yesterday.
5:08But, you know, the Matt Nagy factor. You know, how is Jackson Dart going to take to this new offense?
5:15Malik neighbors just general health, the Giants being the Giants.
5:18And, you know, sort of in a dysfunctional state for an extended period of time.
5:23But no question, I mean, you know, an 85% to 90% Malik neighbors by midseason.
5:28I mean, he would have a chance to crush in the back half of the year.
5:33Very little worrisome target competition on the Giants, too.
5:36He's been such a good target earner everywhere. And then, like, now you get him competing for targets with Darius Slayton and
5:43Darnell Mooney and the corpse of Odell Beckham and tight ends.
5:47Like, yeah. I mean, you could see huge outcomes late if Malik neighbors is right.
5:52That's certainly, to me, one of the two biggest stories of the preseason.
5:56We'll talk more about the other story here in a minute.
5:59Story two. Alvin Kamara gets a restructure from the Saints.
6:03$6 million deal up to $8.5 million. He was ticketed to make much more.
6:07He restructures, gets to stay. This has been one of the more interesting sagas to me of the offseason.
6:13It seemed to me like the Saints wanted to move on from Alvin Kamara.
6:18But Kamara wanted to keep playing and only wanted to play for the Saints.
6:22So despite a pretty poor year for Alvin Kamara, I thought, he is back to play behind Travis Etienne.
6:28They also have Kendrick Miller, Devin Neal. I'm not even sure Kendrick Miller is going to make the team.
6:35They also have Aldrick Estime. So Kamara is not in Silva's top 150.
6:39Silva is at 37 overall on Travis Etienne. Silva, what do you think the fallout is from Kamara coming back to the Saints?
6:46Well, I think first of all, you look further down the depth chart, and there's been a lot of chatter about Kendrick Miller not making the team.
6:55Yeah. So I don't know. It'll be interesting. You know, in a year where there are a lot of running, like really
7:02weak backup running back situations because the draft was so weak at running back, guys like Kendrick Miller and Trey Benson who
7:09could change teams before the start of the season, like I would kind of keep those guys in the back of your mind.
7:17I don't even think that they're terrible like 18th or 20th round best ball picks right now because there are so many
7:24weak running back depth charts across the league. As for Alvin Kamara individually, he's a legacy.
7:29He's going to be a Saints Hall of Famer.
7:32I don't know if he's going to be an NFL Hall of Famer.
7:36I mean, I think he's in the conversation though.
7:39But it's just if he wants to play, like the Saints are not going to say no to that.
7:45And he's going to play this year. And now it becomes like how are they going to use him?
7:52You know, they're going to give him these legacy touches.
7:55He's always been awesome around the goal line. And guess who hasn't been good around the goal line?
8:01Travis Etienne. And also Kamara, I think, is better in the passing game than Travis Etienne.
8:06So it's a little bit concerning, I think, as it relates to Travis Etienne.
8:10I don't know that any of us want to draft Alvin Kamara.
8:14Obviously, I don't have him in the top 150.
8:17Maybe I could jam him in later today to the end of the top 150.
8:22But it's a little concerning for Travis Etienne. And ever since this was locked in, because even talking to Underhill, he didn't
8:29know as of a month or three weeks ago whether or not Alvin Kamara was going to be back.
8:35Now that we know that Alvin Kamara is going to be back, I've sort of backed away from drafting Travis Etienne.
8:42So the thing for me is, yes, Kamara historically has been better at the goal line.
8:47Has historically been better in the pass game. Are we sure he's still better?
8:52Kamara was bad last year. I mean, 3.6 yards per carry, 5.6 yards per reception.
8:57Meanwhile, they give Travis Etienne four years, 48 million, 28 million guaranteed.
9:01I agree with Silva. Like, it's hard for me to see the Saints just benching Kamara.
9:06But gosh, I'm not sure this guy really has much left in the tank.
9:10So I've kind of held steady on Etienne from a median case.
9:14I do think that Etienne's ceiling outcome is worse because of the pass catching stuff and the goal line threat of Kamara.
9:21But from a median case, like, I still think Etienne is a pretty strong pick there.
9:27And you can get him now. He's been going later.
9:30You can get him, like, middle of round four now.
9:33Can you get Travis Etienne? So a discount, you know, at least in best ball.
9:38Let's go to story three. Let's go to Indy for story three.
9:42So Alec Pierce, as expected, starts camp on active slash PUP.
9:45In other words, he's not practicing. GM Chris Ballard got to the mic yesterday and said he thinks Alec Pierce is roughly
9:52one to two weeks away from practicing again. So really interesting one here on Pierce.
9:57Just to give some background, this is a left ankle injury that Pierce says has been bugging him since 2024.
10:04Says he hasn't been playing at 100%. He's played pretty well for someone not at 100%.
10:09But anyways, after last season, after the 2025 season, tried the PRP injection stuff.
10:14Didn't work. Then he signs an $84 million. While this is going on, signs the $84 million guaranteed contract.
10:20While this is going on, Colts let Michael Pittman go.
10:23And then Pierce has surgery. So it's a really interesting timeline.
10:27Evan, thoughts on the latest with Alec Pierce? Well, I think that it takes away some of that.
10:32Oh, OK. You know, this theory that the Colts gave Alec Pierce a bunch of money and now they're going to change
10:39his role and expand his route tree and use him differently.
10:43I don't think that that's going to happen at this point.
10:47I think that him being away from the entire offseason and a big chunk of training camp maybe speaks to that.
10:53I think that we're going to see Alec Pierce come back doing what he's always done and that's run vertical routes and
11:01be very, very good at doing that. And that's why the Colts paid him.
11:05So nothing has really changed for me. I'll tell you what, though.
11:09We have to think about it because we're fantasy football analysts.
11:13We have to think about everything within the context of ADP.
11:16And as I see the rhetoric going on, the chatter among other fantasy football websites and analysts, like everyone has been out on Alec Pierce.
11:24So he's not a very popular pick right now, but he is a guy who can have spiked weeks.
11:30I don't know that necessarily we want to draft him and redraft, but I mean, if he gets to a certain point,
11:38like I'm willing to take him in best ball for sure.
11:41Just because he's not a very popular pick right now.
11:44He's pretty cheap. His home league ADP, Alec Pierce is around 83.
11:48Lately in best ball, he's been going closer to like 90.
11:52Silva is at 77 overall. And I agree with Silva.
11:55This is an interesting buying opportunity. Like, let's think of it like this.
11:59He played through this left ankle injury and played really well.
12:03Now, hopefully the surgery got that fixed. Colts were obviously optimistic.
12:0684 million guaranteed while they knew this was going on.
12:10And they let Michael Pittman go. So my biggest concern is what Silva said.
12:14If he is still in that vertical only role, it is a tough role, especially with Daniel Jones coming off an Achilles
12:21tear where he's supposed to be pushing off his right Achilles, which is the one that he popped to throw deep balls.
12:28And we'll get to Daniel Jones in a second here.
12:32But that is a concern. But at this cost, like I tend to agree.
12:36One thing you said, though, Silva, like you don't think Pierce can run all the routes or he's going to run all the routes.
12:44I mean, who is? You know, Josh Downs is there behind that.
12:48They have Westbrook Akini, Ashton Doolin, Dion Burks. Like that's why you get this Keenan Allen speculation from he has the history
12:55with some of the Colts coaches there. So and that's not quieted down.
12:59I feel like almost every day there's a different Colts beat writer talking about Keenan Allen.
13:04Right. So it's an interesting situation for sure. I really like Josh Downs at this price.
13:10I like Pierce, but the Keenan Allen stuff buried me last year on Lad McConkie.
13:15And so I'm definitely going to be watching that for sure.
13:18The other thing from Colts camp is Daniel Jones coming off the Achilles.
13:22It's amazing how fast guys come back from ACL and Achilles these days.
13:27But anyways, Daniel Jones full go for the start of camp on Wednesday says that he will be.
13:32Remember, Daniel Jones was on fire before this injury last season was fantasy's number seven quarterback.
13:38In points per game. Daniel Jones ADP right now on DraftKings is QB 25.
13:42Again, he was the QB 7 last year. He's the QB 25 now.
13:46So Silva, what do you think about Daniel Jones and some two QB formats or anything else?
13:52Yeah, I think that it's OK. I mean, I think that as you know, a low end QB to a guy who
13:59again, another guy that people really don't want to draft.
14:02And I understand why, you know, he makes some sense.
14:05The thing is that Daniel Jones, like for a long time, running has been a big part of his game.
14:12And I just don't anticipate him doing almost any running this year.
14:16But he can certainly execute the offense. We know we just had Brandon Thorne on.
14:21We like the Colts offensive line. We love Shane Steichen as a schemer.
14:25Yeah, I mean, Daniel Jones is not an exciting pick, but he's cheap.
14:29And, you know, you could get him as your QB 2 and feel OK about it.
14:34These guys are definitely coming back sooner from Achilles.
14:37What about the effectiveness on the field, though? And I think that the effectiveness will be sapped, at least in terms of Daniel Jones' mobility.
14:45Yeah. The one guy we didn't mention all this cold stuff is Tyler Warren.
14:50If Alec Pierce plays the role that Silva is describing, that is very good for Tyler Warren.
14:55Absolutely. Really excited about Tyler Warren. And the more I'm about to publish my tight end tiers, the more I've been getting
15:02into that, the more I want Tyler Warren on my fantasy teams.
15:06I mean, I think that he's right there with the top three tight end, the consensus top three tight ends.
15:13I think that Tyler Warren is not far off those guys, if not right there with them.
15:18Yeah. And I love Tyler Warren. You know, shout out Penn State for sure.
15:23It's tough for me versus like Loveland and McBride from just a volume and like athletic explosive play type stuff.
15:29But yeah, I mean, Tyler Warren is a lot cheaper than those guys for the reasons I just described.
15:36Do you think that the Colts might end up throwing the ball more because Daniel Jones is going to be like a strict pocket passer this year?
15:44I still think they want to just ride Jonathan Taylor.
15:48I think they're going to go into a lot of games like that.
15:52But yeah, I think they have a lot of confidence in Daniel Jones.
15:56So yeah, it's an interesting spot. I mean, Colts is an interesting spot for sure.
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17:19Sponsored by DraftKings. All right. Let's go to story number five here, Green Bay.
17:24This is what I would consider the second biggest story out there right now in Fantasy Neighbors.
17:29The second big, the biggest story. The second one is this Josh Jacobs situation.
17:34Josh Jacobs case on this domestic violence issue is still open.
17:37The district attorney's office said they will not have an update on Josh Jacobs until a resolution is reached.
17:43In other words, there is no resolution yet. During this time, Josh Jacobs has been at camp.
17:49He's practiced without issue all offseason. We're getting kind of close here, Silva, for them to do something, the NFL to do something.
17:56Silva made a move in his rankings. Got Jacobs up to 47 overall.
18:01That's still going to be a little bit behind market here.
18:04Silva, what do you think about the current Josh Jacobs situation?
18:08I think that it's still up in the air.
18:11If you read the reports from Schefter, from other reporters, there are still things that are being decided in regards to the off-field situation.
18:18Again, and I keep coming back to his effectiveness waned.
18:22Josh Jacobs' effectiveness waned last year. And then we come back to the Brandon Thorne take on the Packers offensive line.
18:28He had him 29th or 30th in the NFL.
18:31One of the best ways to combat a downward trending offensive line is to more short passing, throw the ball more, get
18:38the ball out of their quarterback's hands quickly. And Jordan Love can absolutely do that.
18:43And Jaden Reed can do that. And Tucker Craft, who, by the way, is supposed to be signing a big contract extension soon, he certainly can do that.
18:52So I think that that's the way. I kind of don't want Josh Jacobs this year.
18:58Regardless of the off-field situation, people are going to start to think of him maybe as a potential value.
19:04But I think that he's in decline. I think that he showed that last year.
19:09And the situation is just not amenable to him having a bounce-back year.
19:13And you look at the Packers' defense, too. I think the Packers are going to give up a lot of points this season.
19:20So that's not conducive to playing with leads and controlling the ball and putting the ball in Josh Jacobs' belly over and
19:27over and over again, as they have done for the past couple years, I don't think we're going to see the Packers' offense function like that.
19:36I don't think they're going to be able to function like that.
19:40Yeah. I hate doubting Josh Jacobs because I've done it before and he's really shoved it down my throat.
19:46But he is 28 years old with over 2,000 NFL touches on his resume.
19:50I know he played hurt or tried to play hurt last year.
19:54Still seemed like he was wearing down a bunch.
19:57So I don't really disagree with Silva's take. I do think, though, just for CLV chasers and ADP chasers, if he gets
20:04out of the woods on this legal stuff, he will start going early round three at a minimum, at an absolute minimum.
20:12There's also been a sort of a drumbeat about the Packers maybe adding to their backfield consistently.
20:17And you've been talking about it for a while.
20:20Maybe looking at the Cardinals' running back situation. Obviously, Matt and Michael Floor are brothers.
20:25Maybe adding a Trey Benson. Maybe looking at James Conner.
20:28Yep. And by the way, Chris Brooks opened camp on NFI for what it's worth.
20:33So Marshawn Lloyd and Damian Martinez and hopefully Chris Brooks behind Josh Jacobs.
20:37They could certainly use... That seems awfully thin. Yeah.
20:40They could certainly use Conner or Benson. And that's the other thing about this case.
20:45We're slowly moving Jacobs up in the ETR ranks.
20:48The longer they go without adding someone, the more I think they're not worried about a Jacobs suspension.
20:54You know what I mean? So, yeah. All right.
20:57Let's go to story six. We will go to Arizona.
21:00Jacoby Brissett finally gets a deal done with the Cardinals' one-year $15.5 million.
21:04Just first of all, I thought Jacoby Brissett was right and correct to demand more money.
21:09And I thought Arizona, you know, had to pay him.
21:13Like, even if you know he's just a stopgap, this is at a minimum what starting quarterbacks make in the NFL.
21:19But, you know, clearly, Brissett getting a full training camp and opening season as a starter, I think that's good for Trey McBride.
21:27You know, Kyler Murray could not get the ball to Trey McBride around the goal line.
21:32You could also argue that Brissett under center is good for Michael Wilson, who went off with Brissett.
21:38Omaz DeMarv was out. So, Silva, thoughts on Brissett getting his deal done here with the Cardinals?
21:43I mean, let's definitely move on from Kyler Murray so we can clear space to give Jacoby Brissett a really big raise.
21:50You know, I mean, just nothing that the Cardinals have done for the past year plus has made sense.
21:57I mean, I think the Nepo baby, Mike Bidwell, is making a lot of decisions.
22:01They draft a running back. They're the worst team in the NFL.
22:05They draft a running back number three overall. They hire freaking Nathaniel Hackett.
22:10You know, I mean, just nothing that they're doing is making any kind of sense.
22:14I don't even think that Monty Osenfort has, like, full power, you know, as the Cardinals GM.
22:20They have a brand-new coaching staff. I just – so little confidence in this team as a team.
22:26Have you seen – like, some people have come out recently and be, like, expressing optimism about the Cardinals.
22:32Like, maybe they won't be as bad as people think, right?
22:36Are you sure about that? They have the toughest schedule in the NFL by a mile.
22:41And nothing they're doing is plus EV. And they're going to be trying out Carson Beck.
22:46I mean, I think that they're an 0-17 candidate with Carson Beck in the Deshaun Kaiser role.
22:51I mean, this is really, really bad. Bad ownership.
22:54I mean, you can draw a parallel between those Browns and these Cardinals.
22:59I think that there are, like, legitimate similarities. I honestly had totally forgotten about Deshaun Kaiser until you mentioned that.
23:05I never would have even thought of that name.
23:08I think the optimism that you're hearing from people comes from fantasy people who profited a lot on the garbage time stuff last year.
23:16When Jacoby Brissett was dropping back 50 times a game, I was playing Jacoby Brissett in cash.
23:21I was playing Michael Wilson. And it was a printing press.
23:25So I think people are porting that over to this year.
23:28I do not think that's how they're going to play.
23:32There's a totally new staff. I do not think they're going to let Joghoy Brissett drop back 40, 45, 50 times in
23:39game no matter what the score is. And Evan alluded to the schedule.
23:43Evan said it's the hardest in the league. It's the hardest I've ever seen.
23:48I mean, maybe the hardest first 13 games I can ever recall.
23:51Seattle twice. The Rams twice. Got to play the Broncos.
23:55At Arrowhead. Eagles. I mean, some really, really difficult spots.
23:58So I would be shocked if we don't see Carson Beck, Gardner Minshew make starts, which is why we've had Brissett so low in the rankings.
24:06I will say Silva has a pretty big gap here.
24:10I don't know if you want to comment on this, Silva.
24:13Pretty big gap between Marvin Harrison, who I like to call Mazda Marv.
24:17Silva's at 71. And Michael Wilson, who was so good with Brissett last year, at 108.
24:23I'm sure some people have questions about that gap, Silva.
24:26Any thoughts on Mazda versus Michael Wilson this year?
24:29I think that Marvin Harrison is like a lot more, at least theoretically talented player than Michael Wilson.
24:35But, I mean, I can't pretend to have a super confident take on the situation.
24:39I just think that the offense is going to be a disaster.
24:43Okay. Speaking of disaster, I got to read you this quote, Evan.
24:47You know, Nathaniel Hackett, New Cardinals offensive coordinator, was asked, and this was just like two days ago, he was asked.
24:54Do you see the running back room having a starter this year?
24:58And Hackett says, I'm really excited about it. I'm excited for James Conner to get in there and show what he's got.
25:05I mean all the guys. I mean, this guy.
25:08Like, why even do that? And, you know, I don't even believe him.
25:12Because Algier and Jeremiah Love have been with the first team at practice.
25:16And by the way, they're practicing already because they play the Hall of Fame game.
25:21But, like, it doesn't mean anything. But all it reminded me, this stupid quote, it reminded me that this dolt Hackett is on the sticks here.
25:30And I know we talked about it on the coaching change show.
25:34Everyone should watch that show. But I really do want to be in on Jeremiah Love.
25:39Like, I think his talent level is just going way too late in drafts.
25:43Period. But there's so many other issues here. So, Silva, I don't know if you have any takeaways from the Hackett quote
25:50or anything else you want to say about running back.
25:54Yes. I mean, it's shades of 2013, what we talked about on our previous show.
25:59Feed C.J. Spiller until he's going to throw up.
26:01Come out. Give the ball to Fred Jackson 250 times.
26:05You know, that's what Nathaniel Hackett did in Buffalo a long time ago.
26:09He must just be the greatest guy ever. Because he's been a horrible coach for a really, really long time.
26:15And he keeps getting jobs. He is the classic example of the modern-day cocoon in the NFL, Nathaniel Hackett.
26:22It's true, man. It scares me on Love. Like, you know, I like taking him 26, 27.
26:27I think it fits the construction that I want, you know, in a lot of these drafts that I'm doing.
26:34But I'm just scared by the Hackett thing. Period.
26:36I do think that there's other... It's not just the Packers that could use running back help.
26:42Like, I've heard Giants speculated for Connor or Benson.
26:45Chiefs. Colts. There's a lot of teams. Like Evan said, there's a lot of thin backfields that could use Connor or Benson.
26:52So I do think something likely happens there. And maybe, if you want to give Hackett credit, maybe he said that to
26:59try to, like, pump up Connor's trade value a little bit if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt.
27:06All right. Story eight. Patrick Mahomes coming off of the ACL tear.
27:10He is practicing in full as camp opened for the Chiefs.
27:14He's there for the first day. He's rolling out both ways.
27:17He's throwing on the run. I'm not saying he's 100%.
27:21But to me, it's just, like, impressive that Mahomes is out there seven and a half months after ACL surgery.
27:27That said, Silva is at 120 overall on Patrick Mahomes.
27:30That is well behind a home league ADP of 100 overalls.
27:34So, Silva, thoughts on being behind market on Mahomes here as he opens camp seemingly pretty healthy?
27:39Well, Patrick Mahomes has already admitted publicly that he ran too much last year.
27:44And that was a massive part of why he was so good in fantasy last season.
27:49He wasn't lighting it up as a passer. He was lighting it up as a runner.
27:54And his scramble rate was off the charts compared to his normal scramble rate.
27:59So you have to suspect that that's going to come down.
28:02You remember when he got hurt doing a quarterback sneak maybe, like, five years ago?
28:07And he got a high ankle sprain. And, like, the Chiefs just took that out of the playbook.
28:13I don't think he's going to be running very much at all.
28:17And then you look at the complexion of his receiver core.
28:21It's not very impressive. Travis Kelsey is old. Rasheed Rice is good.
28:24But, you know, he's Rasheed Rice. Xavier Worthy, I mean, he's still sort of like a hope and a prayer.
28:31They go out, give a bunch of money to Kenneth Walker.
28:35We get a good ranking on their offensive line from Brandon Thorne.
28:38I think this is going to be an offense that is clearly built around Kenneth Walker.
28:44And Kenneth Walker, who goes in the second round every time, I don't know why.
28:48I think that he should be a fringe first-round pick for sure.
28:52I think he's one of the best values in fantasy football right now because I think they're going to put it in his belly a ton.
29:01And I think they're going to throw him the ball, too, on early downs.
29:05I love that. And I'm right with Sylvain Kenneth Walker.
29:09And let me read this quote. The quote that Sylvain was referring to, Mahomes said, and this was at the start of
29:16camp, he said, I think I ran a little bit too much last season.
29:20If all else fails, I'll just hand it off to Walker and let him go to work.
29:26I believe him. Like, I really think that Kenneth Walker haters are overthinking this one.
29:31Defenses have to play deep safety stuff to counter Mahomes.
29:34If they do that, Walker's going to get light boxes and just go ballistic.
29:38And there's so little behind Kenneth Walker expecting Demercado to be the RB2.
29:43And last point, I think one of the main reasons Walker left Seattle, I think they actually wanted to bring him back.
29:50I think he wanted to leave because he was offended that they were playing Zach Charbonnet over him.
29:56And I'd be offended, too. Kenneth Walker is way better than Zach Charbonnet.
30:00And so I think the Chiefs promised him a huge workload.
30:03And yeah, I really like Kenneth Walker where he goes there also.
30:07So it's tough on Mahomes. He's had such a high TD rate through his career.
30:12They've been so throw heavy through his career on the Chiefs.
30:16From a math perspective, he's going to look better.
30:19But I'm more with Silva that I feel better about other quarterbacks in that range.
30:23Trevor Lawrence, Herbert, Dart types. I feel a little bit better about those kind of guys than Mahomes.
30:29Oh, other note from Chiefs camp. Rasheed Rice, we had the whole jail, rehabbing his knee thing in jail situation.
30:36He's been cleared in full. I mean, he's a candidate to lead the NFL in catches.
30:41Last two years, Rasheed Rice is at 6.4 catches per game.
30:45That's with like being hurt constantly. If he's actually 100% all year, Rasheed Rice could catch 100, 110 plus balls.
30:51This year would not shock me at all. And so in full PPR stuff, I do think Rasheed Rice is a pretty strong pick.
30:59Evan, now that we know Rasheed Rice is cleared here, any thoughts on him?
31:03I don't have any super overwhelming hot takes on Rasheed Rice right now.
31:08I mean, I just don't trust him like whatsoever.
31:10But right now, I mean, if everything goes smoothly off the field with him, you know, he could catch 100 balls, as you mentioned.
31:18For sure. He's a tough one because just don't trust him as a guy like whatsoever.
31:23I also don't think he's entirely out of the woods when it comes to a potential NFL suspension.
31:29But the NFL, like, dude, do you remember like five, six, 10 years ago, the NFL would be suspending dudes all the time.
31:37And they really don't suspend guys that much anymore.
31:40They, you know, so I don't know, maybe these guys, Josh Jacobs and Rasheed Rice are going to get out of the,
31:47you know, in the free and clear. And if that happens, like Rasheed Rice will crush in fantasy.
31:53No question. Yeah. I mean, I assume you're waiting a little bit to move him up.
31:58You're at 45 overall on Rasheed Rice. And again, Silva's rankings are pointed towards half PPR home league type setups.
32:04I do think Rasheed Rice is significantly better in full PPR.
32:08But yeah, you're going to be well behind market here if you stick at 45 overall.
32:13I know I will probably matriculate him up as we kind of move forward a little bit.
32:19And I just feel more confident. And I just, I don't trust him at all.
32:23All right. Let's go to story number nine. Jonathan Brooks, Panthers running back, working at camp right out of the gate.
32:30Dave Canales says Brooks looks like the guy. I remember there has been so much optimism around Brooks in the fantasy community.
32:37A lot of people are saying he should be drafted ahead of Chuba Hubbard.
32:42He's been steamed like 30, 40 spots has Jonathan Brooks.
32:45Silva is now at 99 overall on Brooks. 82 on Chuba.
32:49That's pretty similar to how we have it in the ETR ranks here as well.
32:54But certainly one to watch closely from a health perspective.
32:57Evan, thoughts on Brooks finally playing or at least practicing here for the Panthers?
33:01Well, just to zoom out on the Panthers, it feels like they're, I mean, and this happens with a team or two
33:09every year entering training camp where they just get a ton of bad news.
33:13And you just feel like their season is already a wash.
33:17And the Taylor Moton, who's the Panthers, easily their most reliable offensive lineman, long time mainstay stalwart right tackle out indefinitely with a blood clotting issue.
33:25And then Nick Scorton, high pick for them last year, prime breakout candidate off the edge defensively is done for the season.
33:32And the Panthers weren't that good to begin with.
33:35And so I just wonder if, you know, and Chuba Hubbard, he's not winning anybody, any fantasy leagues.
33:41He's not going to move the needle on the actual real life NFL field.
33:46The Panthers just get a point, get to a point where they just want to see Jonathan Brooks play.
33:52I think he's going to come out playing and then we get to the point where he's like clearly more effective than Chuba Hubbard.
33:59And the season is over and it's like, hey, let's let's have this be the Jonathan Brooks show, like by about midseason.
34:07Like, I think that's a conceivable scenario with Jonathan Brooks.
34:10Yeah. Can he handle that? Can he play to the level that we saw him play at Texas off of all?
34:17I don't know. But like wide receiver or at running back 37 cost.
34:21Yeah. I think that it's worth the risk. The other, you know, negative thing I would say about Brooks is playoff schedule
34:28week 16 at Pittsburgh, week 17 versus Seattle. You know, it's not the end of the world, but, you know, it's not
34:35ideal there for the Panthers and Bryce Young to be playing Steelers in Pittsburgh and then Seattle in semifinal and final week.
34:42But yeah, I we've been fading Jonathan Brooks constantly.
34:45It's been such a hit for us, you know, like that.
34:49Maybe I'm biased towards doing it again, but I just don't have a lot of him right now.
34:55Yeah. My thing is that I just. You know, I don't I don't see any scenario where Chuba Hubbard is like really helping us.
35:02Right. In fantasy this year. And there is a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel with Jonathan Brooks.
35:09Yeah. I haven't been taking much of either. You know, I don't really take Chuba much either.
35:15So, yeah. I think the most likely outcome at the end of the day is that neither of them help us this season.
35:22All right. Don't let the Brooks truthers hear that, Evan.
35:26I mean, there are some fierce Brooks truthers out there.
35:29It's crazy. All right. Some smaller ones here at the back.
35:33Story 10, Sam Laporta is a full go for camp.
35:36I hit this one on Market Monday. Also, you can check that out.
35:40But Silva is at 109 overall on Sam Laporta off this back surgery.
35:44Again, he says he will be a full go for camp.
35:48But Silva 109, home league ADP is 76. He's still your tight end six, Silva.
35:53You just have him way back in the ranks there.
35:56Any thoughts on Laporta now that he is cleared?
35:59Yeah, I need to move him up. I'm going to move him up.
36:03Because the more that I think about from a team level, the Lions, you know, their secondary has been shredded.
36:09This Terry and Arnold thing was a really big loss for them.
36:13And they're really rough at safety. And, I mean, and we know that they have a really easy schedule and they've got a great looking offense.
36:22And we saw Drew Petsig last year, you know, the Lions' new offensive coordinator, drop back Jacoby Brissett 50 times a game.
36:29Now he's got like the quintessential NFL drop back pocket passer in Jared Goff.
36:33So, I kind of, I've been thinking about moving up all the Lions.
36:38Yes. Even more so. And I think I'm high on, relatively high on them with the exception maybe of Laporta.
36:44I got to get them up. I will get them up in the overall.
36:49I feel good about their offensive line. We talked to Thorne.
36:52Thorne had like a mediocre ranking on them. But that's because they have a lot of moving parts.
36:58They're moving Pene Sewell to left tackle. They've got a rookie right tackle, although Thorne really likes him.
37:04They've got young guys on the interior. I think their offensive line is going to be good again.
37:10Not quite what it was in 2023, 2024, but a top 12 unit and they're going to have to score a lot.
37:17So, yeah. Laporta needs to move up in the top 100, in the top 150 for sure.
37:22I like where I have them in terms of just ranking among tight ends.
37:27Yeah. I misspoke. Silva actually has Laporta at tight end eight behind Fannin, Kraft, and Pitts.
37:32Market has Kraft ahead, but... Well, I'm also higher than people on Pitts, I think.
37:37Yes. Yes, definitely. But, yeah. I think that tight end bucket, like...
37:41In home leagues, I'm not going to want to go past that bucket.
37:45In other words, those guys can have scored 30 points in a week.
37:49Laporta, Fannin, Kraft, Pitts, Warren, McBride, Loveland, Bowers. I think I want one of those guys to be my home league tight end.
37:57I can beat people. Like, the drop-off is steeper at tight end.
38:01I'll be better than my opponents at running back and wide receivers.
38:05So, you know, I definitely think Laporta is in the mix for...
38:08To be your home league tight end also. I think the Lions have a chance to be really prolific on offense this year.
38:16I know that you agree with me. Oh, yeah.
38:19You know, how deep in terms of their ancillary components are we going here?
38:23Like, you know, are we looking at Isaac Tesla as, you know, in best ball at least?
38:29Yeah. Or are we expecting it to concentrate around Jameson Williams, Amon Ra, Gibbs, obviously.
38:34Gibbs, dude, Gibbs, I think he's like in his own tier among running backs.
38:38We're like, whoa, why wasn't it B-Jot? No. Gibbs should be in his own tier.
38:43He's the clear-cut number one player in fantasy. Gibbs is going to go ballistic.
38:48Not only do I think that they are going to lead the NFL in points scored and touchdowns this season, but I
38:55think it's all going to come through those four guys.
38:58And when you have Gibbs as your feature back, you're way more likely to go more dropbacks also, which is good for Jameson and Amon Ra and Laporta.
39:07So, yeah, man, like Lions and their defense sucks again.
39:10Like, Lions are a turbo smash. All right. Story 11 comes from San Francisco.
39:15First day of camp, Evan's old friend, Christian Kirk, hurts his calf.
39:19I don't think it's a big deal, but I do think it's notable on the Dazon Stribbling stuff.
39:25And Brock Purdy was very complimentary as camp opened of Stribbling.
39:28He said, this dude has proven to all of us that he's reliable.
39:32We can trust him. I have a lot of trust in him right now.
39:37I've been taking Stribbling ahead of rank even before this.
39:40And I think the reason that people didn't want Stribbling in the best ball streets was because prospect bros were just overconfident in their evaluation.
39:48And it's clouding the spot. The 49ers, I think, see Stribbling as their new Jawan Jennings, which is, okay, it's just okay.
39:56What if CMC gets hurt? Kittle's coming off Achilles.
39:58Pearsall hasn't been able to stay healthy. Mike Evans is old with hamstring stuff.
40:03There's a lot of ways that Stribbling can win here while also being part of one of the NFL's most fantasy-friendly schemes.
40:10So I like Stribbling in deep stuff. I'll probably not get there in home league or definitely won't get there in home league type stuff.
40:18But in deep stuff, I do think he's interesting.
40:21Evan, any thoughts on 49ers wider seer right now?
40:24Yeah, I want to start drafting the heck out of Jawan Stribbling right now, actually.
40:29I think it's time to turn it up on Jawan Stribbling.
40:32You can tell a great story on Jawan Stribbling, how he really moves the needle in fantasy this year.
40:39And I think he's going to be the starting slot receiver on day one for the 49ers.
40:44Now, the 49ers use a little fullback. They use multiple tight ends.
40:48So they're not a classic three-receiver team by any means.
40:51But if something happens to Mike Evans, who's had bad hamstrings and is old, Ricky Pearsall, this PCL thing is really, really tough for me with Ricky Pearsall.
41:00I want to believe in Ricky Pearsall, but we've gotten burned by guys with PCLs for so long.
41:06He was not 100% throughout the offseason program. I don't think Christian Kirk is going to make the team.
41:12So Jawan Stribbling, yes, pound the button right now while he's affordable.
41:16I'm going to get him into the 150 for sure to make sure he's draftable everywhere.
41:21He's a guy to be excited about. You know, he ran 4-3-6 and was the number 33 overall pick in the draft to a great offensive environment.
41:30Yeah, Jawan Stribbling is absolutely draftable, I think, across formats.
41:33Interesting, yeah, yeah. I mean, again, the reason he's going so late is because his prospect profile was not good.
41:4049ers do their own thing. They don't care. And listen, they have a lot of misses that the data analyst spreadsheet socialists
41:47will point to and can correctly point to over the years.
41:51A lot of misses, but there's a defined role there for Jawan Stribbling.
41:55He can run. He's big. We know that he can block, which will get him on the field.
42:01He was considered like the best blocking receiver in the draft.
42:04Now, he's a guy to be excited about right now.
42:07Speaking of 49ers, minor one here, but George Kittle did start camp on active slash PUP.
42:13Not too worried. You know, that was expected. I still think Kittle has a really solid chance to play sometime in September off that Achilles tear.
42:21And yeah, there's risk. He's old. The injury is bad.
42:24But the bar to smash a tight end is so low.
42:28I still think there's value in having Kittle on your bench.
42:31Like very few guys at the tight end position will have Kittle ceiling projection if he's healthy.
42:37And the price is like 97 overall in home leagues.
42:40So yeah, I still like Kittle. Evan, any thoughts on that one?
42:44Again, Kittle will start camp on active PUP. I don't think anything has really changed here.
42:49Yeah. You know, my biggest concern is that George Kittle is old and coming off a torn Achilles.
42:55Although apparently, you know, everyone is very optimistic. He was actually, he was at Wrigley Field not too long ago, all over the TV.
43:03So he's out and about for sure. I think I'm with you.
43:07I think that he might miss that first game.
43:10And then we see him weeks two or three.
43:13It's just his game has been so, the foundation of his game as a receiver has been run after catch and making explosive plays on limited targets.
43:21If he comes back and he's still getting the limited targets and he doesn't have that explosion and that run after catch
43:29because of the Achilles, you know, he could be a little bit disappointing.
43:33But people have not been drafting him aggressively. I've started to take him.
43:37For sure. And one thing that will change is his ADP on DraftKings because they put this big red out sign next to his name.
43:45And so his ADP is going to fall for sure, especially as we get more casual people in here drafting and not
43:52being aware of what's been going on with Kittle for the last few months.
43:57Story 12. Quinshot Junkins a full go to start camp coming off that nasty leg slash ankle injury.
44:03Injury seems fine, I guess, on Quinshot Junkins. Bigger concern to me is two down profile on a really bad team.
44:09Thorns number 31 offensive line. So I have very, very little Junkins right now.
44:14Would that scare you at all? Evan, are any thoughts on Junkins here?
44:18No, I came out the gates, you know, when I did my initial 150 in like late May, thinking that I was going to be aggressive on Junkins.
44:27And I just have not been aggressive relative to market.
44:31So I'm OK with where I'm at. He's, you know, an early down grinder on what projects is the worst team in the AFC.
44:38So I don't think he's going to he's going to burn me too bad.
44:43Yeah, I think the Dolphins are actually worse than the Browns, but it's certainly close.
44:48Fair enough. Silva is at 58 overall on Quinshot Junkins.
44:51His home league ADP right now is 47 overall.
44:54Oh, I wanted to hit this just because Tyreek's been such a great fantasy player.
44:59Story number 13, Tyreek Hill admitted that he has no power in his left leg right now.
45:04He's still working out. He's still trying to get back.
45:07But it sounds to me like Tyreek is likely done in the NFL.
45:12So pour one out for one of the most electric players and fantasy players to ever play in the NFL.
45:18Went over eleven hundred yards six times. Had some outrageous seasons.
45:22Scored 83 touchdowns in 145 games. Did it with Mahomes, but then also did it with Tua Tugavailoa as a round five pick out of West Alabama.
45:31So shout out to Tyreek Hill. Incredible career here.
45:33If this is an incredible fantasy career. Don't think there's any takeaways here, Evan, but any final thoughts on Tyreek Hill?
45:40I think you summed it up pretty nicely. Looks like it's Jover.
45:44All right. Last two things here. Silver rank changes.
45:47And by the way, if you do have draft kit, obviously you have access to Silva's top 150.
45:53Silva also has a change log. So when he makes a change, you guys will know.
45:58He'll put in the change log with like a sentence or two explaining why.
46:03The two from the change log that I wanted to highlight here, Silva.
46:07First one, he switched Jamar Chase and Puka Nakua.
46:10In other words, if you have the number two or number three overall pick.
46:14And by the way, Silva has Puka second, Bijan third, and Chase fourth right now.
46:19I think everybody knows we're splitting hairs. But for home league people, you have one league, you get the number two pick.
46:26It's a big decision. Puka, Chase, or Bijan. So Evan, maybe talk people through your rationale here at the top.
46:33Well, first of all, I've noticed that other people's rankings have been coming out and everybody has the exact same top five.
46:40And we're splitting hairs between the top five. I mean, after Gibbs.
46:44I think Gibbs is actually in his own tier.
46:47But from two through five at least, I think every guy is so close.
46:51So mixing it up a little bit, like I'm not afraid to mix it up.
46:56But I think that this has a chance to be, you know, a truly historic year for Puka Nakua.
47:02I think that, you know, assuming that everything is good, you know, off field.
47:07And it seems like everything's been good off field for an extended period of time.
47:12So I'm putting my faith in Puka here. Devontae Adams had a lot of concerning metrics last season.
47:18There's nothing at number three receiver for the Rams.
47:20And, you know, and we're to the point where we're talking about Terrence Ferguson maybe being the number three, you know, pass catcher for the Rams.
47:29And I'm okay with that. I like Terrence Ferguson.
47:32I have him right around tight end 20. And I like drafting him in best ball in particular.
47:38But we're really thin at the pass catcher position for what still – I think we have the Rams projected to score
47:45the fourth most points in the NFL. Well, sportsbooks have them projected to score the most points in the NFL.
47:51And Puka Nakua, I think, pound for pound, you can obviously argue that he's the best receiver in the NFL.
47:58I think he has a bigger ceiling than Jamar Chase, who has to deal with T.
48:03Higgins, and Jackson Smith and Jigba, who has to deal with one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL.
48:09So just on sheer upside, I'm going with Puka Nakua.
48:12And I think that in a lot of PPR, like four wide receiver, start four wide receiver, I would take Puka over Bijon.
48:20I think in regular home leagues, I would go with Bijon.
48:23But I did want to mix it up a little bit because there's just a lot of groupthink on one through five across the industry.
48:31And I think it's okay to be a little bit different when, at the end of the day, we're splitting hairs between two through five.
48:40Yeah, I like the take. I'll say this about the top.
48:43I think Chase and Puka, for me, are clearly better picks than JSN.
48:47JSN loses Clint Kubiak and has Sam Darnold at quarterback.
48:51The other two guys have way better quarterback situations, Chase and Puka.
48:54Yeah, I'm not going to argue Puka versus Chase.
48:57I think they're both incredible, incredible bets. If you wanted to say you prefer Puka, he does get Dallas at home in
49:05week 15 and at Tampa in week 17. Week 16 is at Seattle, but, you know, there's Seattle Rams games.
49:11There have been some crazy high-scoring games there. Also, only thing that I'd say about Puka is with Aaron Donald maybe coming
49:18back, they have Miles Garrett, they could have an outrageous defense, which I don't know if that matters.
49:24I also think that Puka could have an outrageous target share.
49:28Yes, he will. Yeah. He will, 100%. Okay, other rank change that I wanted to get Silva's take on that he put
49:35in the changelog, moved Michael Pittman up three spots at the wide receiver ranks from wide receiver 42 to wide receiver 39.
49:42Silva is against market here. He is at 85 overall on Pittman against a home league ADP of 110.
49:48On DK Metcalf, Silva's at 91 overall against a home league ADP of 85.
49:53In other words, drafters prefer DK Metcalf pretty significantly here.
49:56Silva prefers Pittman over Metcalf. Silva, maybe explain to the people the change here.
50:00Yeah, I mean, I like to hear that because that's exactly where I want to be.
50:05I think that Michael Pittman is going to lead the Steelers in receiving this season.
50:10I did this small ranking exchange. Michael Pittman is still in the same tier that he was before, but I just moved him up within his tier.
50:19I think that he's a much better fit for what Aaron Rodgers does, especially nowadays, than DK Metcalf, which is get the
50:26ball out quickly and try to create run after catch.
50:29That's Michael Pittman's game. That's not DK Metcalf's game.
50:32We saw that last year. Now DK Metcalf has to compete with Michael Pittman.
50:37I think that Michael Pittman is going to be the Steelers' best receiver this season.
50:42Yeah. I mean, to me, the difference is Michael Pittman can— DK Metcalf can take a five-yard slant for an 80-yard touchdown,
50:49and that is not Michael Pittman's game. But if you just want to bet on who's a better fit, who works in
50:56that short area where Rodgers likes to throw, clearly it's Pittman.
51:00So yeah, it's a really interesting spot there for sure.
51:03They're both pretty cheap. You know, they're both pretty cheap.
51:06There's no doubt about that. All right. That is going to do it for the first news and rankings change show of 2026 training camps.
51:14We'll be back next Tuesday for sure, but before then, be sure to subscribe here on YouTube.
51:20We're doing a home league mock draft later this week with all kinds of ETR people, including guys like Mike Gallagher, yes, the NBA guy, and others.
51:29So we'll have 12 of us here to do an actual draft, likely would draft a home league.
51:34I think a lot of you guys will enjoy that as we shift our focus to regular fantasy, season-long fantasy over the next six weeks.
51:42Four. Silva. Bruce, you're Luke. Bruce, you're Ryan. I am Adam.
51:46Good luck, everybody.
