Establish The Run artwork

Rest Of Season Top-150 Rankings: Players To Buy And Sell Before Week 2 (Episode 1023 with Adam Levitan, John Daigle, Mark Dankenbring, Jack Miller)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 16, 2026
Published
Wed, September 16, 2026
46
Player insights
34
Players mentioned
Topics
Jalen CokerKenneth Walker IIIBryce YoungChristian McCaffreyD'Andre SwiftDavid MontgomeryJordan MasonLadd McConkeyMarShawn LloydMatthew GoldenAlvin KamaraBijan RobinsonChris BrooksChristian Watson
Player analysis

Player insights

46

Alvin Kamara

NegativeRole8:00

Kamara was inactive for Week 1 despite being a franchise legend. The Saints coaching staff does not appear to favor him, though they are keeping him on the roster. His presence adds another mouth to feed in an already crowded Saints backfield.

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Bijan Robinson

NegativeUsage25:56

Referenced as benchmark for elite dual-threat running back usage; had second-highest route share last year, establishing standard for elite pass-catching running back role.

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Bryce Young

NegativeProjection28:45

Mark Dankenbring flags Bryce Young's Week 1 performance as potentially outlier-level, noting that the quarterback's strong showing against the Bears defense may not be sustainable. This uncertainty directly impacts the evaluation of his receivers, particularly Jalen Coker, whose breakout performance is partially attributed to Young's play rather than guaranteed role or scheme factors.

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NegativeProjection30:54

Adam Levitan expresses lingering concerns about Bryce Young's talent, which is holding back his conviction on Coker's fantasy ceiling despite the receiver's strong performance. However, Levitan notes the Panthers were plus in pass rate over expectation in Week 1 and showed similar pass-heavy tendencies in the playoff game vs. the Rams, which could be encouraging if the team stops trying to hide Young in run-heavy setups.

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Chris Brooks

NegativeUsage17:30

Brooks received significant snaps in Week 1 over Marshawn Lloyd due to the Vikings' heavy blitz scheme (80% on early downs), which forced the Packers to use their pass-catching back more frequently. This usage pattern may not be sticky long-term and was likely game-plan specific.

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Christian McCaffrey

NegativeUsage3:00

McCaffrey was out-carried by Kalen Black (8-7 in first half, 46% of team's RB carries each) in Week 1 against the Rams in Australia, losing carries between the 20s but retaining goal-line work and pass-catching role. Despite not scoring a touchdown, he finished as a fringe RB1 due to high target volume. Adam Levitan notes this usage pattern keeps him healthy and aligns with his receiving-heavy profile: 10.9 half-PPR points per game from receiving and 10.6 from rushing last season. With Stribbling going down, more targets should flow to McCaffrey. Ranked 10th overall (down from 6th pre-season) in rest-of-season rankings.

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NegativeUsage25:56

Referenced as benchmark for elite dual-threat running back usage; had highest route share last year (implied to be above 65%), establishing standard for elite pass-catching running back role.

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Christian Watson

PositiveBreakout15:00

Watson had a bullish Week 1 performance against Minnesota, though he received fewer targets than Matthew Golden. He is confirmed as an every-down receiver alongside Golden in the Packers' passing game. The Packers were forced to throw heavily due to the Vikings' weak defense, and Watson should benefit from increased pass attempts.

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CJ Donaldson

NegativeRole7:00

Donaldson received significant third-down work for the Saints in Week 1, a role typically reserved for pass-catching specialists. This marks a clear preference by the Saints coaching staff to bench Etienne on third down, continuing a pattern from Jacksonville's previous regime.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveProjection45:21

Adam Levitan projects Swift to have a really strong fantasy season as long as he stays healthy, with an expected workload split that could even be conservative; he's moving Swift up significantly and views him as a really strong pick in the fourth or fifth round.

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PositiveRole45:45

Jack Miller notes Swift carried Mononga 10-3 in the first half before the Bears got up big and fed Mononga more; Mononga took two-minute drill snaps and out-routed Swift 15-9. However, Miller believes the wider rushing split than last year is temporary game script, and the key differentiator is the Bears looking like a top-five scoring offense. Even at a conservative 55-60% snap/touch split over Mononga (similar to last year), Swift should have a strong fantasy season. Miller is moving Swift up significantly, citing his best offseason of his career and the team's commitment to keeping him healthy and fresh throughout the season.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection51:23

Despite an unimpressive Week 1 Sunday Night Football performance, Prescott has an extended sample size as a very good NFL quarterback with two of the best wide receivers in the league; pocket passing efficiency is the key driver, and Prescott has been better throughout his career than Jared Goff when healthy; ranked a tier above Goff and well ahead of Tyler Shuck despite Shuck's comeback performance in Week 1.

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David Montgomery

PositiveProjection26:31

Adam Levitan and John Daigle maintain Montgomery at RB2 overall (52nd overall rank) after his three-touchdown outburst against Buffalo. Despite only 3.0 yards per carry against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, the volume thesis holds: Montgomery handled 70% of team backfield touches with high-value red zone work, and the underlying usage remained strong even with Woody Marks playing significant snaps. Levitan's pre-season argument—that Montgomery offered a better profile than Javante Williams, Kyron Williams, and Travis Etienne at a later ADP—has proven out; Montgomery is RB9 in expected fantasy points and has significant touchdown upside this season.

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NegativeProjection26:31

Adam Levitan was a David Montgomery fan before the season, but Week 1 performance was concerning. Faced one of the worst run defenses in the NFL in 2025 and only averaged 3.0 yards per carry. Levitan's take: betting on volume because efficiency is in question.

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Deebo Samuel

NegativeRole40:54

Levitan views Deebo Samuel as worth rostering due to his touch volume, but expresses hesitation about starting him on a weekly basis, suggesting limited upside despite roster value.

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Demarcus Robinson

PositiveSleeper41:29

Levitan recommends Marcus Robinson as a free waiver wire pickup over Cleve Raymond, positioning him as an under-the-radar option. When Brandon Aiyuk was injured, Robinson ran 78% of dropbacks, establishing him as the primary replacement option.

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Devin Singletary

PositiveRole53:12

Singletary is emerging as the pass-game back for the Giants with 17 routes run compared to Cam Scadaboo's eight, and he received targets while Scadaboo had zero; this role split suggests Singletary will handle the receiving work in the Giants offense under Harbaugh, positioning him as a complementary back with pass-game upside.

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George Kittle

PositiveValue41:01

Levitan identifies Kittle as an interesting buy despite not looking great in Week 1, reasoning that with Jauan Jennings out, the 49ers will have no choice but to expand Kittle's role significantly, creating opportunity.

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Isaiah Likely

NegativeValue44:29

Daigle was buying Isaiah Likely as a late-round draft target due to his upside in John Harbaugh's offense with minimal tight end competition. However, post-Week 1, Daigle is no longer buying at the current market price, which has risen to George Kittle and Harold Cobb levels. Daigle notes that if you drafted Likely late, you should be extremely happy to have a TE1, but the post-game price has moved beyond his buy threshold.

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Jalen Coker

PositiveBreakout28:36

Jalen Coker moved up significantly to 86th overall (from a much wider preseason gap versus Ted Arroyo-McMillan) after his monstrous Week 1 performance against the Bears defense. Mark Dankenbring notes the key uncertainty: whether this was an outlier Bryce Young performance and an outlier Bears defense matchup, or whether Coker has genuine season-long upside. The 35-spot gap between Coker (86) and Arroyo-McMillan (51) reflects appropriate caution about sustainability, though the team remains open to ranking Coker even higher pending clarity on Bears defense weakness and Young's consistency.

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PositiveBreakout29:38

Coker posted 130+ yards in back-to-back games (Week 1 and playoff game vs. Rams), joining an elite tier of receivers (AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Pickens, Lamb, Puka Nacua, DJ Moore, Jamar Chase, Jackson Smith-Njigba) who have achieved this feat multiple times. Despite Ted Roman McMillan receiving more slot snaps (41% slot, 59% out wide), Coker maintained a 14-yard ADOT and remains a vertical slot receiver. Adam Levitan believes the breakout is warranted for a UDFA who earned a contract extension, though he tempers conviction due to concerns about Bryce Young's talent.

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PositiveValue30:51

Coker has outperformed Ted Roman McMillan over their last eight games together, with nine or 10 more catches than T-Mac during that span, not just a one-game sample. Adam Levitan supports a 35-spot ranking gap between Coker and McMillan as appropriate, though he wishes the Panthers ranked Coker even higher in the offseason.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveUsage52:10

Williams' Week 1 performance was hampered by drops; if he had caught the football, the game outcome and Jared Goff's efficiency metrics would have looked significantly different, suggesting Williams' role and opportunity are intact despite the poor Week 1 results.

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Jared Goff

PositiveProjection52:04

Despite a concerning Week 1 performance, Goff is expected to have a strong 2026 season; the game outcome would have looked significantly different if Jamison Williams had caught the football, which would have improved Goff's efficiency metrics as well; ranked a tier below Dak Prescott but well ahead of Tyler Shuck; has a favorable matchup against the Commanders in Week 2 at home.

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Jayden Reed

NegativeRole15:00

Reed ran just 2 routes from two-wide-receiver sets in Week 1, confirming he will not be a regular in those formations. Daigle expected the Packers to play more three-wide-receiver sets this season, but they did not, possibly due to Brian Flores' Vikings blitzing 80% of early downs. This reduced usage for Reed is consistent with the Packers' historical pattern of benching him in two-WR sets.

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Jordan Mason

NegativeInjury20:00

Mason has been placed on injured reserve as breaking news during the recording of this episode. This opens up additional backfield opportunities for the 49ers.

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NegativeInjury20:55

Jordan Mason placed on injured reserve with a thumb injury sustained in Week 1; will miss at least four games. Was ranked 97th in the rest-of-season top-150 rankings but will drop significantly in updated rankings due to this injury timeline.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeInjury17:30

Jacobs' legal situation remains unresolved heading into Week 2. His girlfriend wants the case sealed and reportedly does not want a video released, leading to speculation she may have been paid. Regardless of the outcome, Daigle expects Jacobs to return at some point this season, which would negatively impact Marshawn Lloyd's role.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage10:00

Walker received significant volume in Week 1 as the Chiefs targeted their running backs at the second-highest rate in the league. Daigle notes that if the Chiefs continue to play light boxes and deep safeties, Walker will thrive all season, potentially forcing the offense into more pass-heavy setups that could benefit Rasheed Rice later.

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NegativeProjection25:48

Usage and efficiency unclear after one week; bundled together with other running backs in terms of projection uncertainty. Possibility that Ashton Gentry could outscore Kenneth Walker rest of season depending on whose usage holds, suggesting Walker's role/production is not yet settled.

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PositiveValue48:21

Adam Levitan and the Establish The Run team moved up Kenneth Walker quite aggressively in their rest-of-season rankings, positioning him as the third overall player right behind B.J. Robinson; in a trade scenario comparing Walker and Nico Collins against B.J. Robinson and Lad McConkey, the team has only a 3% edge to the Robinson-McConkey side, treating it as essentially even.

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Ladd McConkey

NegativeInjury49:16

Adam Levitan notes that Lad McConkey is currently banged up, though he doesn't think it's anything serious; this injury status influenced his slight lean toward the Kenneth Walker and Nico Collins side in a trade scenario over the Robinson-McConkey side.

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PositiveUsage49:42

John Daigle highlights Lad McConkey's massive impact on the Chargers' passing game in Week 1; when McConkey was available, Justin Herbert averaged 10.3 yards per attempt with the highest success rate passing in the entire league, but the moment he left the field, the Chargers' efficiency cratered to 28 yards per attempt with dead last success rate, demonstrating McConkey's critical role in the offense.

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Malik Nabers

PositiveBreakout42:12

Levitan expresses encouragement about Malik Nabers' Week 1 performance despite limited route participation (55-60%), noting he led the team in targets with 9. Ranked 22nd overall, the key question is whether he can reach 100% health. Dankenbring adds that Nabers ran 73% of routes (second on team behind Darnell Mooney), led the team with 31% target share, and posted 6 catches for 69 yards—a stat line that would have been encouraging pre-game. Daigle suggests holding or buying low before Week 2, noting the matchup progression: Cowboys (favorable) followed by Rams (toughest test) will reveal the Giants offense's true ceiling.

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MarShawn Lloyd

PositiveValue17:30

Lloyd underperformed his expected fantasy points in Week 1 but had the same expected fantasy points as Kyle Minungai, Quinshot Junkids, and Basial Tootin—suggesting the underperformance was a one-week variance rather than a talent issue. He was limited by the Vikings' heavy blitz scheme (80% on early downs), which led to more Chris Brooks usage. Lloyd can be acquired for pennies after this performance and has favorable matchups in three of the next four games (Jets, Falcons, Bears). Josh Jacobs' legal situation remains uncertain but could impact Lloyd's long-term role. Ranked 96th overall. Daigle calls him a buy-dirt-low.

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PositiveValue20:17

Lloyd had poor Week 1 fantasy production but the usage and role moving forward should be fine; available at pennies on the dollar after this performance. With Josh Jacobs returning timeline uncertain and three of the next four Packers games against Jets, Falcons, and Bears, Lloyd represents a strong buy-low opportunity before the market corrects.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveBreakout15:00

Golden had a 29% target share in Week 1 against Minnesota, with several targets coming on in-breaking routes that Romeo Dobbs vacated. He was an every-snap player on the outside and ahead of Christian Watson in targets despite some pseudo-throwaway targets when Love was under immediate pressure. Jack Miller calls him one of the big winners of the week. Ranked 72nd overall (up significantly from pre-season). Daigle notes Golden was one of his most drafted players and confirms he and Watson will be the every-down receivers.

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NegativeValue32:47

Adam Levitan has Matthew Golden ranked rest of season over Jalen Coker, though the transcript cuts off before providing the reasoning or context for this ranking decision.

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Mike Evans

PositiveValue40:50

Adam Levitan identifies Evans as the player he feels best about in the Tampa Bay receiving corps, positioning him as a preferred buy target.

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Nico Collins

NegativeProjection50:17

Adam Levitan likes Nico Collins and thought he was a fine pick at the 2-3 turn, but notes that his true ceiling (99th percentile outcome) is not the same as some other wide receivers because the Texans play good defense when not facing Josh Allen, run the ball, and avoid shootouts like some other teams; Collins is solid but his upside is capped relative to peers.

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Rashee Rice

PositiveUsage10:00

Rice received only 2 targets in Week 1 against Denver, a 7% target share—the lowest he's had for the Chiefs since breaking out in Week 12 of 2023 (previous low was 17%). Mark Dankenbring attributes this to the Chiefs' new offensive philosophy with Kenneth Walker in the backfield; the offense targeted running backs at the second-highest rate in the league and Xavier Worthy at the line of scrimmage 35% of the time, suggesting a game plan built around protecting Patrick Mahomes against Denver's pass rush without starting LT Josh Simmons. Rice is a player who needs high volume to produce and does not perform well on low volume. Ranked 50th overall (down from higher pre-season expectations). Daigle suggests holding and waiting to see if this was Broncos-specific; the knee may also improve through the season.

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Saquon Barkley

PositiveValue44:02

Adam Levitan suggests that Saquon Barkley can be bought well below his ceiling. The context indicates the Giants offense is still being evaluated after Week 1 against the Cowboys (who allow easy passing to the flats), with a tougher test coming Monday night against the Rams. Levitan's framing suggests Barkley's current market price undervalues his upside potential.

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Travis Etienne

NegativeUsage7:00

Etienne split carries 46% apiece with Kendrick Miller in Week 1 despite signing a $24M guaranteed deal as a workhorse. He ran only 24 routes on 63 dropbacks (38% route share) and was benched on third down in favor of CJ Donaldson—the second consecutive coaching staff to avoid using him in that role (Jacksonville also benched him on third down). With Alvin Kamara still on the roster, the Saints backfield has three mouths to feed. Jack Miller worries about the three-way split and lack of third-down trust. Ranked 53rd overall (down from early 30s/40s pre-season).

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Travis Kelce

NegativeRole10:00

Kelce formed his own route tree in Week 1, running wherever he wants and wherever the defense opens windows, independent of the Chiefs' structured game plan. This reflects his veteran autonomy in the offense.

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Woody Marks

NegativeUsage26:52

Woody Marks played significant snaps and ran a ton of routes in Week 1 against Buffalo, but David Montgomery captured the high-value touches and red zone work. This usage split suggests Marks has a role in the Saints backfield but is not the primary target for touchdown opportunities or goal-line carries.

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Xavier Worthy

NegativeUsage10:00

Worthy received 35% of his targets at the line of scrimmage in Week 1, suggesting the Chiefs built their game plan around protecting Mahomes against Denver's pass rush. He was the primary beneficiary of scheme targets alongside Kenneth Walker, with much of the offense's design centered on quick-hitting plays rather than downfield routes.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

738
0:00Hello and welcome to the Establish The Run Rest Of Season Top-150 Rankings Show.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. Each and every Wednesday we are here to discuss our Rest Of Season Top-150 Rankings, how that
0:11plays into the season-long trade market, our redraft trade calculator, buy lows, sell highs, and more.
0:16Be sure to stay tuned until the end. We will answer some of your listener questions and submit our one move to
0:23make on your redraft roster this week. For today's exercise, I am joined by two members of our projections team, Mark Dankenbring
0:29and Jack Miller, as well as the season-long bro you know and love, John Daigle.
0:34Mark, how's it going today? It's good, Adam. The Rest of Season Top-150 is certainly a labor of love, but we made some serious upgrades this year.
0:42Got a fresh new table on site, so shout-out to the dev team for that.
0:47Looks super crisp. And, you know, week one, we just get so much information.
0:51Excited to dive into a lot of it here.
0:54Yeah, for sure. Jack, how's it going today? It's going good.
0:57It's good to be back. Like Mark said, we get so much information right off the bat in week one, so it's
1:04fun to sift through what matters and what doesn't.
1:06So I'm excited for this. Indeed. Daigle, how are you?
1:09For those that watched the first waiver stream yesterday, they'll notice I'm wearing the same clothes from that stream, which tells you
1:16exactly how week one's going so far. Perfect. Listen, I thought it was a great week one.
1:21Best ball bags looking really good. Redraft stuff is looking really good, so I'm excited.
1:26I want to be clear. This is a very hard exercise, rest of season top 150 rankings.
1:31One of the reasons that it is hard is because we don't know exactly what is a one-off game plan type thing and what is sticky season long.
1:40Let's say a team had really low pass rate over expectation for the first seven weeks, and then out of nowhere, they
1:46pop up in the eighth week and have really high PROE.
1:50Well, that's probably a game plan specific thing. It could have been game plan specific stuff here in week one.
1:56So there is a balance between overreacting and underreacting to this stuff.
1:59We'll go through some of the trickiest and most important spots here today.
2:03Two more quick notes before we get started. If you want to access our rest of season top 150 rankings on a weekly basis, you need DraftKit Pro.
2:12That also comes with our Redraft Trade Calculator. Redraft Trade Calculator is really simple.
2:16You put in any trade, we'll tell you which side we prefer.
2:20We'll show you how that works later on in the show.
2:23Second, if you're serious about your fantasy team or you're interested in playing DFS or more serious forms of fantasy, I think
2:30you'd be crazy not to check out our in-season product.
2:33Includes Silva's matchups, our projections for every player in every game, Thorne's offensive line, defensive line rankings and mismatches, Premium Shows, tons more.
2:40So head to establishtherun.com now for details on our two NFL products, DraftKit Pro and in-season.
2:45All right. We are going to go through how we're thinking about some of these spots in our rest of season rankings.
2:52This is how would we draft if the season started today.
2:55In other words, week one stats don't count. How we drafted the season started week two and ended in week 17.
3:01I want to start with some of the biggest usage stories of the week here, Daigle, and how much we should be
3:08reacting to them in a redraft setting. One of the biggest stories of week one was the usage for Christian McCaffrey.
3:14Everybody saw this on an island game. Really stuff we haven't seen before with Christian McCaffrey.
3:19Getting out-carried by Kalen Black. Losing a bunch of snaps to him.
3:23Now, this game was in Australia. This game was a blowout of sorts in the second half.
3:28Christian McCaffrey still scored reasonably because he got so many targets.
3:32We went to 10 overall here on Christian McCaffrey.
3:34Prior to the season, we had him 6 overall, I believe.
3:38Daigle, where you at with Christian McCaffrey rest of season?
3:41I'm personally taking a lot of what happened in Australia and throwing it out the window just because it's the first time
3:47that we've seen two teams try to do this.
3:50And I feel as if, one, the Rams really didn't actually try.
3:54And getting off the plane, playing football, a lot of weird usage things, including Terrence Ferguson's first-half route share, Devontae Adams, who
4:01led the league in end-zone targets, not getting a single red zone or end-zone target.
4:05Christian McCaffrey, if you zoom in to answer your question and just look at the box score, you'd think, oh, 27-7 win for the 49ers, blowout.
4:13Of course, Kalen Black was involved. Even in the first half, Black out-touched Christian McCaffrey 8-7.
4:18And the Niners only had a three-point lead at one time through the first two quarters and trailed at 1.2.
4:24So we are asking, of course, is this usage going to stick?
4:28And then what does it look like for Christian McCaffrey moving forward?
4:31But I think for McCaffrey to not score a touchdown and still finish as a fringe RB1, it's pretty good for his usage.
4:38And this is what you want because it keeps him healthy.
4:42Again, I don't think Black's usage is consistent. But I'm also willing to zoom out and say, I didn't expect this to
4:48be in the range of outcomes anyhow for Black.
4:51So maybe that's what's happening. That's why I put him as one of the top pickups in the waiver wire.
4:57Right. I think two important things for me. First of all, they've whiffed on a ton of mid-round running backs.
5:03That doesn't mean that they're never going to play them.
5:06Just because they whiffed five times in a row on mid-round running backs does not mean they're like, oh, we took Kalen Black 90th overall.
5:14We had him as the second best running back in this class.
5:18We've whiffed before. Now we're not going to use him at all.
5:21You know what I mean? And that was why I was kind of like, we should have Kalen Black ahead of Jordan
5:28James in the ranks just because he's the new guy.
5:31Like, give him a chance. You know, give him a chance to be the guy that actually hits for them.
5:37And maybe this is some of their intention. I thought Kalen Black played well.
5:41The second part of this, Mark, is people are going to come out and say, carries between the 20s don't matter.
5:48Christian McCaffrey lost all the carries between the 20s.
5:51Who cares? That's not worth very much anyways. I don't see it that way, really.
5:55You still want him out there for those plays.
5:58Of course, I'd rather have him for pass catching and goal line, which I think will be sticky.
6:03And to me, that's the reason why he sticks as a fringe first round pick is because I do think he's going to get so many targets.
6:12I do think he's going to get a lot of the goal line work.
6:16So I still think fringe first round pick on Christian McCaffrey.
6:19I'm sure there's other people out there panicking just to wrap this up, Mark.
6:23Any final thoughts on Christian McCaffrey? Well, yeah, in the past game, usage is really what's going to carry him to a
6:30top five running back or, you know, top top overall running back finish that he had last year.
6:36In half PPR, he had 10.9 half PPR points per game last season from receiving only and 10.6 from rushing.
6:42So, you know, the receiving work far outweighed the rushing profile.
6:45Even last year, we didn't see any carries inside the five from the 49ers in this game.
6:50But CMC did get the lone carry inside the 10 for them.
6:54So that's at least, you know, a mini positive there that'll have the goal line work.
6:59And I think, too, you know, just looking at his expected fantasy points, he finished 11th in Leone's, you know, expected fantasy points model here.
7:06So still fine. I think with Stribbling going down, there should be more targets to go around in this 49ers offense.
7:13So I feel pretty confident high value touches are going to go CMC's way.
7:17And yeah, he should still be in the first round.
7:20But we did take him down a little bit there.
7:23Okay. That was definitely one of the biggest surprises in terms of usage for week one.
7:28The other big surprise and usage, Jack, and one of the biggest stories of the week, was how the Saints handled Travis Etienne.
7:35Silva and I talked about this for a bit yesterday on Team by Team.
7:39It was just really weird to go out and pay this guy all this money and then have him share carries with Kendrick Miller.
7:47And play CJ Donaldson a bunch. Now, they did get off a ton of snaps in this game.
7:52Like, hey, if Travis Etienne plays 50 snaps in a game, that's great.
7:56The thing is, it was only, they ran so many plays.
7:59So it looked like a worse percentage. He still had really good expected fantasy points, did Travis Etienne.
8:05In large part, because he was in while they were coming back or trying to come back and got a bunch of targets.
8:12So we have taken a big hack, though. I believe we were in the 30s, maybe the early 40s on Travis Etienne.
8:19Now we're at 53 overall. In the ranks on Travis Etienne.
8:22Jack, what do you think about how sticky that week one usage will be in Saints backfield?
8:27Yeah, he had a lot of expected fantasy points.
8:30But part of that is that they ran so many snaps.
8:33And he had nine targets. But he only ran 24 routes on 63 dropbacks.
8:38And they used CJ Donaldson on third down. Dating back to last year, the Jaguars didn't use Etienne on third down either.
8:44They used LaQuint Allen in that role. So this is now the second consecutive coaching staff that hasn't wanted to put Etienne out there on third down.
8:53And then Kendrick Miller matched him with nine carries.
8:55So it gets to be pretty tough on Etienne, I think, where he's splitting carries.
9:00They don't really trust him on third down. And I still think he can have a fine target share.
9:06He did last year in Jacksonville as well, despite not having the third down role.
9:10But it just gets to be pretty tricky when he's on a three-way split.
9:14And Alvin Kamara wasn't even active. The Saints coaching staff doesn't seem to like him a whole lot.
9:20But he's a franchise legend. So they're keeping him around.
9:23But I mean, that adds just another mouth to feed in this backfield.
9:27So I'm pretty worried on Etienne personally. Yeah. I don't really get Daigle giving Travis Etienne $30-40 million to come in and share time with Kendrick Miller.
9:35So I don't want to completely write him off.
9:38But I think this range that we have him in now, Skadaboo, Dave Montgomery, Tootin, Mondre, I think that's the right range.
9:45Daigle, what do you think about Etienne? Atop that range makes sense.
9:48Just because, again, we are trying to parse through why he literally split carries.
9:53Him and Kendrick Miller, 46% of the team's running back carries apiece after, as you said, they give Etienne $24 million guaranteed
9:59as a player who in two of the last three years has handled 295 touches as a workhorse.
10:05I'm still zooming out and saying that money and that workload matters long term.
10:09So perhaps this is a different game script. And I also want us, which I believe we are in the back end
10:16with our projections, to be careful because will the Saints run 86 plays every week?
10:20Of course not. But they also led the league in seconds between snaps last year.
10:25So they are going to rival for a league high and pace weekly.
10:29It's just weird usage for week one and mid-league, which then we should back up Etienne a hair.
10:34Yeah, I don't think I'd like I like where we have him here, you know, and you're not and I think people
10:41are gonna be more panicked on Etienne than we have him here.
10:45I you know, we're 53 overall RB 21. I like that rest of season on on Etienne.
10:50Mark, let's go to Rasheed Rice. I'm sure a lot of people out there are panicked.
10:55We had a decent fade on Rasheed Rice. So hopefully people listening to this don't have him.
11:00But maybe some people are thinking I could buy low here on Rasheed Rice.
11:04This concern is maybe the knee isn't right. OK, maybe that'll get better through the season.
11:09And I'm I can definitely understand that. My bigger concern is that the way this offense is set up now is not
11:16for Rasheed Rice to get volume and he is not a player that performs well on low volume.
11:21He's a player that needs. A lot of targets because when you have a short area a dot, you got to rack it up.
11:29So for him to only get two targets in that game.
11:32I think it's somewhat concerning and we did dock him down to 50th overall.
11:36Mark, go ahead on Rasheed Rice rest of season.
11:39Right. And I'm almost a little bit more concerned on kind of the offensive philosophy more so than like Rice's target share in week one.
11:47But just to note, you know, based on since Rasheed Rice kind of broke out in week 12 of the 2023 season,
11:53the lowest target share he's had for the Chiefs was 17 percent.
11:57And that came in at seven percent in week one.
12:00So even quite a bit of a dip there below.
12:03And then, yeah, I mean, you know, offseason it's OK.
12:06They give Kenneth Walker the bag. Offensive philosophy is going to be different than we see that play out in week one.
12:13I think that's a little hard for me to ignore and just how this offense is is going to be operated, you
12:19know, with Kenneth Walker in the backfield. And I do think it was a pretty rough game from from Patrick Mahomes.
12:26But when he did look to pass a lot of the a lot of the scheme targets look to go to Xavier Worthy and then Kenneth Walker again.
12:34So, you know, I think kind of all the the negatives that we were tossing out there around Rasheed Rice and offseason played out in week one.
12:43So I don't even know if I consider him really a buy low right now.
12:47I also don't don't really think he's a sell low either.
12:51I think he's just kind of more of a hold and and we'll see how things go.
12:56I will note that, you know, the Broncos and their man heavy scheme is probably one of the worst matchups for Rasheed Rice.
13:03So I think things will get better, obviously, again, 7% target share is the lowest he's had in the last couple of seasons here for the Chiefs.
13:11So, you know, at the end of the day, like I'm fine betting on a on a wide receiver and a Patrick Mahomes offense.
13:18But I definitely think, you know, based on where we are going in draft day, the the doc is is is warranted here.
13:25I tweeted something about Rasheed Rice and all kinds of bros were my mentions.
13:30First, it was the matchup bros or mentioned. Oh, he was on Patrick Sertan.
13:34That's why he only had two. And then it was the coverage, the the coverage scheme bros.
13:39This is a man scheme where she writes only does well against zone.
13:43And by the way, we've looked at all this coverage stuff for signal.
13:47There is none like this stuff sounds good on Twitter.
13:50It sounds great. Oh, when this team plays this defense and this wide receiver, he they do well.
13:56We looked at that. It does. It's it's not true.
13:59Now, if you want to say Rasheed Rice had a good bad game because Broncos defense, at least theoretically, is very good and has good corners.
14:06Maybe I can buy that a little bit. But my better argument for Rasheed Rice is just a knee can get healthier.
14:13B, our team's just going to let Kenneth Walker shove it down their throat all season, because that's what he will do
14:20if they play these light boxes and deep safeties.
14:23Kenneth Walker is going to go nuts all season.
14:25Maybe they won't be able to do that because he'll be playing so well.
14:30You'll get more pass heavy setups there for Rasheed Rice.
14:33So I agree with Mark. Hold there on Rasheed Rice.
14:36If you have him, though, hopefully you do not.
14:38We really need to see was that a Broncos specific game plan.
14:42You mentioned the man coverage, but more importantly, without starting left tackle Josh Simmons and Rasheed Rice usually owned that role near
14:49the line of scrimmage, which is why he was hammered targets.
14:52Travis Kelsey would then form his own route tree, literally just runs wherever he wants, wherever the defense opens windows.
14:58Xavier Worthy go deep. But the fact that Xavier Worthy, even 35% of his targets came at the line of scrimmage and
15:05the Chiefs targeted their running backs at the second highest rate in the league.
15:09Was this because they feared the pass rush without a full starting offensive line similar to the 49ers, for example, and Brock
15:16Purdy leading the league in screen rate because they formed their entire game plan around defending against Miles Garrett.
15:22I'm just curious if this was a Broncos specific game plan for for around Rasheed Rice, which then brought him down a hair.
15:29I hear you. And it's definitely possible. And it's a good transition to our next topic, which is Packers passing game, because
15:35Packers were facing the Vikings with a weak offensive line.
15:39And so maybe they went to more heavy sets than they wanted to to protect for that.
15:44So we got a question from Funkhaver. He says, how are you approaching Packers pass game moving forward?
15:49It was really exciting. I thought, Jack, for Matthew Golden and Christian Watson.
15:53It was not as exciting for Jaden Reed because of what I mentioned.
15:57They played Johnny Smith a ton and they played a bunch of tight ends that, frankly, I had never heard of or
16:04hadn't thought about in a long time. A ton here.
16:07Also, that led to reduced usage for Jaden Reed.
16:10But man, it was pretty exciting for Watson and Golden.
16:13Jack, what do you think about Packers passing game going forward?
16:16Yeah, I definitely think this was a unique matchup.
16:19I think that that's why we saw Chris Brooks play so much over Marshawn Lloyd to the Vikings blitzed almost 80 percent of the time on early down.
16:27So I think that that probably led to increased tight end usage.
16:31That probably led to Chris Brooks over Marshawn Lloyd because Brooks is their pass catching back.
16:36But I do think it was a really bullish game for both Watson and Golden.
16:40Golden had a 29 percent target share. A couple of those targets were kind of pseudo throwaways where Love was under immediate
16:47pressure and just kind of had to throw it in the area of someone.
16:51But regardless, even if you take those away, Golden was was ahead of Christian Watson in targets.
16:57He's in every snap player on the outside. He was getting a lot of the in-breaking routes that Romeo Dobbs vacated.
17:03So I think that Golden is one of the big winners of the week.
17:07And you can see that we moved him up a bunch.
17:11Yeah, we're up to 72 overall on Golden. I mean, Golden was one of my most drafted players because as expected, he
17:17is him and Watson are going to be the every down player.
17:21And I thought the Packers would be forced to throw a ton more.
17:25We saw that play out even against Carson Wentz.
17:28This defense could not stop them. They get into comeback mode and they get a ton of pass attempts off.
17:34Maybe that'll change when Micah Parsons comes back. But yeah, I don't know.
17:38I think we got a definitive answer that we wanted, though, in that Jaden Reed ran just two routes from two wide receiver sets.
17:45We needed to know who was going to be in two wide receiver sets.
17:49Despite having our own beliefs, we now have the confirmation.
17:52It's going to be different whenever Brian Flores is not on the other side blitzing Jordan Love at 78% of his dropbacks.
17:59Absolutely insane. But yes, Golden, we now know, is in two wide receiver sets.
18:03Yeah. I mean, I think it's obvious. They've been doing this every year with Jaden Reed.
18:08It's just not going to happen. And I really liked Jaden Reed before the season.
18:13And I never thought that he'd be in two wide receiver sets.
18:16I simply thought they would be playing more three wide receiver sets this season.
18:21And they didn't, maybe because of Brian Flores. Mark, I want to bring up this Marshawn Lloyd question here we got from Josh.
18:28Josh Burke says, Marshawn Lloyd underperformed his expected fantasy points by so many.
18:32How far down the ranks is he flying? We have Marshawn Lloyd at 95.
18:36The other part of this long-term outlook on Marshawn Lloyd is, I guess Josh Jacobs' girlfriend wants the case sealed.
18:42In other words, she doesn't want the video coming out either.
18:45There's going to be speculation out there that's because she got paid.
18:49And now she got paid to say she doesn't want the video out there either.
18:54Whatever it is, either way, I feel like Josh Jacobs probably will be back at some point this season.
18:59I don't know exactly when. And that's obviously bad for Marshawn Lloyd also.
19:03And as Daigle mentioned, Chris Brooks got a ton of snaps in that game too.
19:08So we're at 92, sorry, 96 overall on Marshawn Lloyd.
19:11Mark, how do you feel about him? Well, I think I agree with what Jack said too about the heavy blitz nature
19:18of the Vikings defense lending to more of a Chris Brooks-centric game plan in the backfield.
19:23So Lloyd dropped for us mostly out of just like attrition and that we didn't really move him down.
19:28It was more like guys below him that we had moved up after successful week ones.
19:33And in terms of, you know, underperforming his expected fantasy points, he had the same expected fantasy points as guys like Kyle
19:40Minungai and Quinshot Junkids and Basial Tootin right around those guys.
19:43So I would actually take that as a positive.
19:46The fact that he underperformed in one week, I don't think is a huge negative there for Lloyd.
19:52You know, I'm in a league where I'm kind of piecing together like RB2 between JK Dobbins and Rashad White and Marshawn Lloyd.
19:59And I did not play Lloyd in week one and plan to in week two, like against the Jets.
20:04So I think I'm hoping that the setup week two against the Jets is going to be way better for Lloyd.
20:11And he realizes some of those fantasy points. I think the fact that Caleb Johnson didn't play at all for the Packers
20:17is honestly another bit of a bonus there for Marshawn Lloyd too.
20:21So obviously it wasn't a good week one fantasy production wise, but I think overall the usage and moving forward should be fine for Lloyd.
20:29You can get Lloyd for pennies right now after this performance.
20:32And since we play fantasy football in windows before Josh Jacobs returns and three of the next four games for the Packers,
20:39they have the Jets, Falcons and Bears. I do think Lloyd is not going to be in our transactions list at the end of the show.
20:47I think Lloyd is a really good buy dirt low.
20:50Interesting. Yes. By the way, just because it's on the screen right now, breaking news into the show.
20:55As we are recording, Jordan Mason has been placed on injured reserve.
20:59Vikings have signed DJ Dallas to the 53 man roster.
21:02That was a thumb injury that Jordan Mason sustained.
21:05He will miss at least four games. So we will get the rest of season top 150 rankings and redraft trade calculator
21:11cleaned up here as soon as we are done recording.
21:14But yes, obviously we have Mason at 97 here in light of this news.
21:19He'll be dropping down a lot. Reminder, this free show is brought to you by Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction
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21:28state. You can go back to episode 1018 for more on my take for why prediction markets make sense for people like us.
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21:54It was 6-1 on sportsbooks. It doesn't sound like that much, 6-1 to 7-1, but that stuff makes a massive difference in
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22:47Okay, let's go to some outlier performances from week one here.
22:50Jack, I want to start with Ashton Gentry. We talked a lot about Gentry in the lead up because he was really interesting DFS play.
22:58Obviously, the ankle turned out to be no big deal.
23:01A lot of people were worried about the Mike Washington stuff also.
23:05Turned out ankle was nothing. Mike Washington was nothing.
23:08Gentry was too good in the game to take him off the field.
23:12I question, and if you wanted to try to sell high on Ashton Gentry, it would be he was home against the Dolphins.
23:19This was like, as Silva said, this is like what he's used to playing against St.
23:23Mary's College for the Blind on Fox Sports 6 at 3 o'clock in the morning.
23:28This is what he's used to. The Dolphins are an absolute joke.
23:32It is going to get much tougher for Ashton Gentry.
23:35I'm not saying that he's going to underperform. I'm just saying this was probably the best spot that he will find all season.
23:42So, Jack, how are you thinking about Ashton Gentry?
23:44We do have him 12 overall now in the ranks.
23:47Yeah, I think it was the best spot he's going to have all season.
23:52But with that being said, he had 23 carries in his first game off an ankle injury.
23:57He had a 20% target share as well. And he looked really good.
24:01He was at 0.58 rest yards over expectation for a temp.
24:04This is still a guy who's one year removed from being the sixth overall pick.
24:09So, I'm personally still bullish on the talent, despite how terrible he was last year from an efficiency standpoint, which I'm blaming on the environment.
24:16The environment is better now, but it's still not actually good.
24:20I think that the Clint Kubiak scheme is going to help him a lot.
24:24But I'm still worried about the offense as a whole with Kirk Cousins back there.
24:29And then once Cousins gets benched, you've still got a rookie back there.
24:33Even if Fernando Mendoza is one of the more pro-ready quarterbacks, certainly in this class, the most pro-ready, it's still a rookie back there.
24:40So, I think that the offensive environment is still a concern.
24:43But he looked really good. The pass-catching rule is amazing.
24:4620% target share in week one. Obviously, that's without Brock Bowers, but that can drop a little bit.
24:52And he can still be among the league leaders in targets at the running back position.
24:57And 23 carries in the first game after missing so much time in August and early September, I think, is really bullish.
25:03Yeah. I mean, we have him 12 overall. I think before all the ankle stuff, we had him right around there.
25:10Also, before the season, we got lower, maybe 16 or 17 overall by the end, just because of the worry on the ankle.
25:17But I think where we have him is right now, like back where it started.
25:21You know, Mike Washington is good, but Ashton Gentry is incredible.
25:25I mean, I joke a lot, but watching him is really awesome, especially when he gets in the open field.
25:31Next few matchups for the Raiders at Chargers, at Saints, versus Chiefs, at Patriots.
25:35He does have some tougher games, you know, down the stretch.
25:38He plays the Broncos. He plays the Seahawks. But the schedule is not terrible.
25:43It's just Miami is like a literal worst team I've ever seen in terms of talent.
25:48Everyone wants that tear after Jameer Gibbs sifted through.
25:50But that's honestly the truth is right now, after one week, they're all bundled up together.
25:55Like if Ashton Gentry outscored Kenneth Walker, he wouldn't be shocked the rest of the way, just because we're all trying to
26:02figure out which of their usage is going to hold.
26:05Yeah, agreed. Mark, anything else on Gentry before we move on?
26:08I just wanted to note that he ran 65% of the routes in week one.
26:13Last year, he only averaged 50% route rate. So if that holds under Kubiak, that's going to be incredible.
26:1965% route share would have ranked third behind only Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson last year.
26:24And that would turn him into, you know, just one of the elite kind of dual threat running backs that we have in fantasy.
26:31All right. Outlier performance. I got to go to Dago with this one.
26:35Dago was a David Montgomery fan before the season.
26:38Now, he was facing what was in 2025 one of the worst run defense in the NFL.
26:43And he only averaged 3.0 yards per carry. And this was always my take on David Montgomery.
26:48We are betting on volume because the efficiency is just not going to be there.
26:53This run game has been broken for so long.
26:55Dave Montgomery is not going to revive it. However, where I agreed with Dago was the volume was going to be absolutely insane.
27:02And they're going to try to play defense and run for a bunch of touchdowns with Dave Montgomery.
27:08And they didn't even play defense. And that's still the way it played out.
27:12Guy scores three touchdowns in the game. The underlying usage, Dago, was not quite as strong.
27:17We had Woody Marks playing a ton in this game and running a ton of routes.
27:22It was just David Montgomery got the high value touches.
27:25So we didn't really move Dave Montgomery up too much in the ranks.
27:29We're at 52 overall. That's roughly where we were before this outburst against the Bills.
27:33Dago, how are you feeling about Montgomery rest of season now?
27:37To put my stance into further context, my argument was always, why is everyone drafting Javante Williams, Kyron Williams, Travis Etienne, that
27:43list of guys two rounds higher when David Montgomery with a better profile, if not the same one, is right here rounds later.
27:50That was the whole argument. And so far, RB9 and expected fantasy points.
27:54I always snaps a lot less than a lot of analysts because I prefer that when you're on the field, you get
28:01touches and Montgomery still handled 70% of the team's backfield touches.
28:04So in not moving him and moving him up slightly, I think that's the correct call.
28:09And I'm very comfortable to have Montgomery as my RB2.
28:12Yeah, I mean, totally agree. Like it's not valuable.
28:15Like the LaQuint Allen or like those roles are just like not valuable.
28:19Like if he loses that stuff, it's really not that valuable.
28:22It's like two minute drill, four minute drill. I find to be more valuable.
28:27But gosh, I mean, David Montgomery has a chance to score a lot of touchdowns, man.
28:32Like a lot of touchdowns here this season. Let's go to another outlier performance here, Mark.
28:36Let's go to Jalen Coker. There's a lot of talk out there, including for me, you know, that we were too wide.
28:43And we were above market on Jalen Coker to be clear, but we were too wide on the gap between Coker and Ted Arroyo-McMillan in the preseason ranks.
28:52We have moved Ted Arroyo-McMillan down to 51. We have moved Coker up to 86.
28:56That is a big time move for Coker. Now people might be, there's going to be some Tet freaks out there.
29:03They're going to say, now you guys are too tight with these guys.
29:07So Mark, what do you think about the gap here that we have between T-Mac and Coker?
29:12Yeah, I mean, could be too tight. And this is going to be a filling out process of just like, how bad is the Bears defense?
29:20You know, is this the best setup that Jalen Coker is going to get all season?
29:25Obviously, I think it was a pretty outlier Bryce Young performance as well.
29:29So that's kind of the tricky spots to weigh in.
29:32Week one is really, okay, how meaningful is this that he put up this monstrous game against the Bears defense?
29:38Same with, I think, kind of like the Giants performance against the Cowboys defense.
29:42Defense, it's like really, okay, how impressive was that versus these defenses are just going to be sieves all season long?
29:48I think the gap being, you know, 35 spots in ranks is pretty appropriate at this point.
29:54You know, certainly wish maybe we were even higher on Coker in the offseason.
29:58But I think a lot of the rhetoric too is, you know, Ted Roman McMillan was going to get more slot snaps, which he did in week one.
30:06But that was still Jalen Coker's primary role. He was in the slot 41% of the time out wide 59% of the time.
30:13Yet Coker still had close to a 14 yard ADOT.
30:16So he's still more of that vertical slot receiver as well that we like in the modern day NFL.
30:22And, you know, Jalen Coker, if you look at his playoff game against the Rams, he also had over 130 yards, which
30:29he had in week one of this week. So I was just like, okay, how many, how many times has a receiver
30:36put up 130 plus yards in back-to-back games? And when you look at the list, it's just, you know, the league's best.
30:42It's AJ Brown three times, Justin Jefferson three times, Tyreek, Pickens, Lamb, Puka, Cup, DJ Moore, Jamar Chase, Jackson Smith and Jigba.
30:49So it's a, it's a, you know, laundry list of some of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
30:55Do I think, you know, that necessarily means Jalen Coker is, is going to be out there with those guys?
31:01No, but you know, certainly a breakout talent, you know, for UDFA to get a contract extension from a team, I think is a big deal as well.
31:09So I believe in Coker's talent. I don't necessarily believe in Bryce Young's talent still, which I think is probably holding me
31:16back on, on thinking, you know, Coker is, is like a wide receiver too, or in fantasy.
31:21But I do think the bump is, is warranted and the gap should be tighter between him and T-Mac.
31:27Well, I'll say two things. The Panthers have tried to hide Bryce Young in a lot of games in his career.
31:34In other words, really run heavy setups. In week one, the Panthers were solidly plus in pass rate over expectation.
31:40So that was encouraging. Same with the Rams game in the playoffs.
31:43I mean, that was for sure encouraging on Bryce Young too.
31:47So if they're not going to try to hide him, I think that's somewhat exciting.
31:51And second, it's not like Coker, this is just a one game sample.
31:55He has, I think nine or 10 more catches than Ted Ray McMillan over their last eight games together.
32:01So it's not just one game. You could make an argument Coker has outplayed T-Mac for months.
32:06You know, going back to last season now. So I think the gap that we have is, is good here right now.
32:13You know, 35 spots between T-Mac and Coker. Another note too on, on the Panthers is that they changed play colors this year.
32:20Brad Idzik is now calling plays instead of Dave Canales.
32:23Again, one, one week sample. It's hard to like draw too much conclusions from that.
32:28But if they do become, you know, a higher pass rate team that could definitely benefit T-Mac and Coker both because, you
32:34know, the rest of the passing game options are, are pretty much non-existent at this point.
32:39In, in danger of upsetting the not in my league people Daigle, is it true that Jalen Coker was not owned in a lot of leagues?
32:47Or do you think that, uh, what, what, what, like, I'm just curious, like, cause obviously in the leagues I, I am in Coker was owned.
32:55I'm just curious if it was actually unowned in any.
32:58Uh, apparently per the discord in some eight and 10 team leagues.
33:02Yes. Jalen Coker was not drafted those leagues, which Theo Grimminger has labeled Narnia rankings, Narnia leagues.
33:07Uh, I also have Matthew golden ranked rest of season over Jalen Coker and they have those people, the same questions there.
33:14So if for whatever reason they're out there, yes, Matthew golden over Jalen Coker on the waiver are.
33:19Jack, let's go to Denver. Um, you know, I want to give them some grace.
33:24It's a really hard spot. Week one, you're going to Arrowhead.
33:27It's Monday night football. I want to give them some grace, but they were absolutely horrific in every way in that game flowing through to Jalen Waddell here.
33:35Also, how concerned are you about Broncos specific to Jalen Waddell?
33:39We got a question from, uh, ML, MLB PMO.
33:42So what's your level of concern on Waddell here coming out of that game against the chiefs?
33:47We're at 46 overall right now in the rest of season ranks.
33:50I'm not super concerned on Waddell. I'd say I'm more concerned about the offensive environment than his specific role.
33:56He was still out there for 85% of routes.
33:59Um, from what I saw, he had like a scheme target called up for him on the first play of the game
34:06that Bo Nix decided not to throw for some reason.
34:09And the chiefs really made a concerted effort to take him away.
34:12So I think the targets are definitely going to rise in the coming weeks.
34:17They traded a first round pick and a third round pick for him.
34:21They're going to get them involved. The offensive environment is a little scarier considering they have a new first time play caller in Davis Webb.
34:28Obviously Sean Payton could take back the play calling if the offense doesn't get better.
34:33Um, but that would be my lone concern with Waddell.
34:36I'd be more concerned on Corlin Sutton. Honestly, considering Pat Bryan is more of like a one-to-one skill set with him.
34:42Whereas Waddell is kind of a different player from those guys.
34:46Yeah. You know, the bull case to me on Waddell was they gave up all this so that they could make him their featured player.
34:53If you are not a featured player in a Sean Payton offense, you can get lost in a lot of games.
35:00Like you can have two targets. It's three targets.
35:02It's the guys that he loves Jimmy Graham or, or, you know, these type of guys that, uh, Michael Thomas, the guys
35:09that actually get a ton of work in every game.
35:12I was optimistic that would be Waddell, but I wasn't a hundred percent sold on it.
35:17And after this game, yeah, I think there's some concern.
35:20But as Jack said, I mean, it was a really weird spot.
35:24Underlying usage was good. We did dock him down a little bit.
35:27Uh, we were down up around 40 overall. I think we're, you know, 46 overall here, uh, on Mr.
35:33Waddell. All right, Dago. Let's go to Chicago. 59 points.
35:36I actually don't want to spend a lot of time on this because I feel like everybody has the same analysis, but
35:4359 points and burden Rome and Loveland have people pissed off.
35:46Um, we do not. I think people are going to want us to say, why isn't Cleef Raymond in the top 150?
35:53Uh, Silva compared Cleef Raymond's week one outburst to all media Zaccheus yesterday.
35:57Do you agree with that Daigle or Zaccheus going to be a problem here?
36:01Everybody can say buy low on Loveland burden and a dunes.
36:05I guess the question is how low or how high should you be buying?
36:09Cause I don't think anyone's giving them away after what this offense showed.
36:13I like that comp because you couldn't use Zaccheus at any point in season long either, but he was still out there for a Ben Johnson offense.
36:21I personally don't worry. The last couple of times we've heard Ben Johnson talk one in that athletic interview.
36:27He literally said verbatim, the quote is the running game, which is the haymaker sets up the play action, which is the haymaker.
36:34Do you fear death? That is the quote he used.
36:37And then after the game, he came out, uh, not even provoked to talk about it.
36:42He regretted not going for 60, going for the two point conversion to get the 60 for an arbitrary reason and instead settling at 59 points.
36:50This is what this man is going to do.
36:52Whereas you watch Sunday night football and you see the Cowboys on their opening drive, uh, take a delay of game and
36:59punt it after trying to draw the defense off sides.
37:02Ben Johnson second quarter, fourth and one from their own 21 goes for it because he understands the assignment and building a Superbowl contender.
37:09So this is what this offense is going to do every single week is put up points.
37:15And don't you want the three guys who are going to lead that offense and routes run every week?
37:20I think that's the easiest way to put it.
37:23If you wanted to buy on these guys, I don't think anyone's selling yet, but they play the Vikings this week and
37:30the Eagles in week three, they could underperform in those two games.
37:34And then I think they'd really be a buy, you know, cause right now I don't think anybody really wants to sell
37:40these guys, but they could really be a buy if they underperform in those two games there.
37:45Mark, any final thoughts on bears before we move on?
37:48I would say Rome is, is the only player I'm considering not necessarily buying low on just, just the fact that he's playing through a calf strain.
37:57Um, you know, he was pretty limited in week one, so that, that would be fine.
38:02But I, I get a little, I get a little weary on buying players, you know, with soft tissue injuries, especially at a calf strain.
38:09I just, I just don't know how that's going to go.
38:13And, and we were, you know, just lower on Rome than, than consensus, you know, this, this off season compared to the other targets there.
38:20So I'd be more interested in buying in on, on burden and Loveland specifically there.
38:25Yep. All right. Let's go to a couple, uh, injury related spots here.
38:29Jack, I want to start with the stripling news.
38:31So, you know, just a dagger. I mean, at the time of stripling's injury, and by the way, he went on IR
38:38today, he's going to be out at least four games.
38:41Hopefully he's not lost. Hopefully he doesn't need surgery is out for the season.
38:45At the time of stripling's injury, he was up three to one on snaps on Debo Samuel.
38:51And I have this big stripling bag and you guys know me.
38:54I'm a Debo hater. I hardly have any Debo and it's just what a run out for this guy to get hurt.
39:01I mean, Debo had like nine snaps and stripling had like 27 or something at the time with injury.
39:07Then of course, stripling gets hurt and Debo comes in and starts going off.
39:11So I'm mega tilted about this, Jack. I don't even really want to talk about it, uh, anymore.
39:17What do you think about 49ers rest of season with stripling now on IR?
39:21Yeah. It's interesting because they have a lot of guys who don't project for a full route share like Mike Evans.
39:27I don't think that they want out there on every snap.
39:31Even last year, the Buccaneers, when he was healthy, kept them under 80% routes.
39:35I think he's going to have a big targets per out run.
39:39That's what we saw in week one, but I don't think he's going to be out there on every snap.
39:45Debo Samuel got a lot of targets as well, but he got out routed by Demarcus Robinson.
39:50I think Demarcus Robinson, if anything, might be the guy that they're okay.
39:54Just trotting out there for a bunch of routes.
39:57I think Debo is probably going to be in a part-time role as well.
40:01And then Kittle is obviously still getting up to speed after the Achilles tear last year.
40:06Um, so it's an interesting target breakdown. I think that it makes sense to move Evans up.
40:11He had a big role in week one. He had the goal line fade.
40:15I think that he's going to get a ton of touches near the goal line, which is good for him.
40:21Debo, I think is going to get a lot of touches per snap, but I still think that the snaps and routes
40:28are going to be limited enough that he's going to be not the most comfortable fantasy start every week.
40:34Demarcus Robinson, I'm sure he's going to be out there a bunch.
40:37And then once Kittle gets up to speed, if they, Jake Tonjes is on injured reserve as well.
40:43So once Kittle gets up to speed, he could be out there a bunch and really command a big target share as well.
40:50Um, so Evans is, is clearly the guy I feel best about here.
40:54Um, Debo, I think is worth rostering. He'll get touches, but I, I, I wouldn't love starting Tebo on a weekend week out basis.
41:01Yeah. I thought that Kittle is an interesting buy right now.
41:04I didn't think he looked great, but no Tongass.
41:07They're not going to have a choice, but to play Kittle for a ton there.
41:12And obviously you're up scribbling and you're up here.
41:15So yeah, I think Kittle is at least interesting as a buy here.
41:19If he's going to have his role, uh, expanded a ton.
41:22If you, uh, if you, I was just going to say, if you, if you want to pick up Cleve Raymond, uh,
41:29how about you just pick up to Marcus Robinson, uh, for free and you think that's probably, probably the better, better move
41:35to make a fine under the radar right now.
41:38Oh, I thought to Mars Robinson for deep leaders was interesting.
41:41Dale, any interest for you off the waiver wire on to Marcus Robinson?
41:45For sure. Whenever scribbling got injured, Robinson then ran around 78% of dropbacks is the guy who will be out there.
41:52If you scroll to the bottom of the waiver wire column, I do have all my FFPC and NFFC suggestions there.
41:58I just took the graphic out actually, but it's such a big list.
42:02I want to make sure we're, we're jamming on all these guys for even five to $11.
42:07All right. Last one here before we get to listener questions, Mark is the Malik neighbors situation.
42:12If I drafted Malik neighbors, I honestly would have been pretty encouraged by what I saw.
42:17He did not play a ton. I believe he was around 55, 60% of the routes, but he still led the team in targets with nine.
42:25And so I think that's pretty exciting. We have him up to 22 overall right now.
42:30At this point, the biggest question to me is just like, is he 100% of himself or can he get to 100% of himself?
42:37But yeah, if you drafted him and obviously you're not, well, maybe you could consider selling.
42:42It does seem pretty bullish if you're pessimistic rest of season, but yeah.
42:46Any thoughts here on neighbors, Mark? I thought it was a pretty great week one for him.
42:51The fact that he was out there 73% of the routes, you know, don't, don't necessarily care if he's out there run blocking necessarily.
42:59So 73% of the routes was second on the team behind only Darnell Mooney led the team of 31% target share, you know, still six catches, 69 yards.
43:07Like if you told me that was his week one stat line beforehand, I would have been pretty pumped with that.
43:14So, you know, retroactively excited about it as well.
43:16And I think too, you know, it's again, all this off season speculation, getting some confirmation in week one was nice.
43:23Just that doesn't seem like Darnell Mooney or Malachi Fields or Odell Beckham, you know, just the rest of their receiving tree
43:30outside Isaiah likely is not going to get targeted heavily.
43:33So I think, yeah, it was a great week one for Malik neighbors.
43:37I would be holding it because I think in home leagues, you know, he went mostly in the third round.
43:43So we have him up at 22nd. I think, I think moving forward, he should be a second round guy for sure.
43:49Go ahead, Daigle. I think holding or even buying low or waiting until Tuesday to buy low next week, understanding we expect
43:56him to play more just because it's the perfect litmus test.
43:59It's it's there on the opposite ends of the spectrum.
44:02You get the Cowboys where they can just spam the R1 button and throw to the flats constantly to get down the field with ease.
44:10And then next week on Monday night football, they have the Rams and a toughest test possible.
44:15So we're going to actually see what this giant's offense is.
44:19At some point you can buy neighbors well below what we know his ceiling is.
44:23All right. A real quick Daigle for you buy or sell on Isaiah likely is week one performance.
44:29I'm still buying. Well, I guess I'm not buying.
44:31He was a, he was an easy draft target late because again, we understood the upside and getting the money and running
44:38out John Harbaugh offense without really any tight end competition.
44:41But now you're buying him at what the price you would pay for George Kittle, Harold fan and those guys.
44:47So I don't necessarily, you might have to pay.
44:50So I don't necessarily think I'm buying. I think you're just extremely happy.
44:54You have a tight end one if you drafted him late.
44:57Yeah. Okay. Um, all right. Let's go to some of your listener questions.
45:01By the way, we asked for these on Twitter under the established to run account usually on Tuesdays or so.
45:07So if you want to get your question in feel free, we've answered some of them already.
45:13Let's go to, let's go to soft bench here.
45:15You know, I don't know how old soft bench is, but I had to ask the guys before the show.
45:21He said, is DeAndre Swift H1MOTHY? I had no idea what that meant.
45:25Apparently the youth these days are using the phrase H1MOTHY, I guess in some reference to Timothy Chalamet, the Knicks fan or whatever.
45:32Um, so anyways, soft bench says, is DeAndre Swift H1MOTHY or will he return to his 2025 form?
45:38His snap count from week one suggests it's not his backfield, albeit being paid an extension and playing lights out.
45:44I mean, come on, Jack. You know, DeAndre Swift was one of the most talked about players in Chicago leading up to the season.
45:51They give him a ton of money. Game turns into a blout.
45:55Mononga got there a little bit late, but we're up to 24 overall now on DeAndre Swift.
46:00He has a really exciting role and just seemingly keeps getting better.
46:04So yeah, I guess the question for you, Jack, and I believe Jack is the youngest one here, is Swift H1MOTHY as this guy said.
46:11I don't know if I'd go so far as to say Himothy per se, but I definitely think he's going to have a good year.
46:19He was out carrying Mononga 10 to three in the first half, and then the Bears kind of got up by a bunch and started feeding Mononga more.
46:28Mononga did take the two minute drill snaps, and he ended up out routing Swift 15 to nine.
46:33I think that they like Mononga. I think that they also don't want Swift getting like 20 plus touches every game, even though they just paid him.
46:41I don't think that that's how Ben Johnson wants to use this backfield.
46:45I think he wants to keep Swift healthy and fresh the entire season.
46:49With that being said, it was a wider split than it was last year from a rushing standpoint, and they did just
46:56pay Swift, and he's coming off reportedly the best offseason of his career.
47:00And I think the biggest differentiator from last year in terms of this backfield is the Bears look like they're going to
47:07be a top five scoring offense in the league.
47:09So I think that even if you get the same like 55 to 60 percent Swift over Mononga, which it was last
47:16year, and I think that might even be conservative on what we can expect the split to be moving forward.
47:22If you even if you get that split on this offense, that can still be a really, really good fantasy season.
47:29So I like moving up Swift a bunch. I think he's going to have a really strong year as long as he stays healthy.
47:36Yeah. I mean, he's looking like if you got him in fourth or fifth round looking like a really, really strong pick there on him.
47:43I also love that Timothy Chalamet, who's won a Golden Globe for best actor net worth hundreds of million dollars, and you called him the Knicks fan.
47:52I don't watch TV and movies, dude. Who has time for that?
47:55OK. Oh, trade question. Mark, I'm going to tech lord over to the trade calculator here if you want to read me
48:02this trade question once I can get there. And by the way, if you go to draft kit tab, that is where
48:09rest of season rankings are and redraft trade calculator, all the waiver stuff, Gorman's rankings, etc.
48:14So I'm going to go here to our trade calculator is available to anyone with draft kit, select super flex or half PPR.
48:21And then, you know, it's really simple. You just put in the players and we'll tell you which side we think is ahead.
48:28So go ahead, Mark. Yeah. So one side, he said, would you trade away Kenneth Walker and Nico Collins for B.
48:34John Robinson. And Lad McConkie. My God. I mean, it's interesting just because we've we we moved up Walker quite aggressively and in the top one fit.
48:42Do we know him as the third overall player right behind B.
48:46John and then Nico and Lad we have very similarly as well.
48:50So we have a slight lean towards the B.
48:52John Lad side still. But I think, you know, pretty, pretty even trade here.
48:57All things considered, given given the firepower exchanging hands here.
49:00I mean, first of all, we really need to trade all our best players like we just drafted them a week ago.
49:06We already want to trade our best players in the league.
49:10Second of all, if you look at the trade calculator here on YouTube, you see this is we have this as fair.
49:16I mean, only a three percent edge here to the B.
49:20John Lad side. I would consider that like dead even.
49:23I don't really have a strong take here on this one.
49:26It's just like four really awesome assets. Given the injury to Lad, maybe I would lean towards the Walker and Nico side
49:33just because Lad's banged up right now. I don't think it's anything serious, but he is banged up.
49:38I don't know. Dagle, you have a preference on this trade here?
49:42I think it's a wash. I think both both positions are in their same tiers.
49:47Walker and B. John and Nico and Lad McConkie.
49:49Whenever McConkie was available in that game in week one, Justin Herbert averaged 10.3 yards per attempt.
49:55The Chargers did the highest success rate passing in the entire league.
49:58The moment he left the field, 28 yards per attempt dead last in success rate.
50:03I don't know why it cratered without one individual, but the Chargers were humming when Lad McConkie was available.
50:09Yeah. You know, on Nico, we talked about this before the season.
50:12I love Nico. I thought he was like a fine pick at the 2-3 turn.
50:17The true ceiling, like the 99th percentile outcome for Nico, I do not think is the same as some of these other
50:24wide receivers because they're going to play good defense.
50:26When they're not playing Josh Allen, they're going to play good defense and run the ball and not get into shootouts like some of these other teams do.
50:35But yeah, just on solid, like Nico is obviously awesome.
50:38Yeah. So you guys can play around the trade calculator.
50:41One thing that I do want to say about this is it doesn't know your team, right?
50:46And I understand that as a whole, we're trying to address that for a future where maybe you could do stuff like
50:53tell us who's on your team and we can make better recommendations.
50:56That way, we won't have that ready for this year.
50:59This is like a baseline though. I think it's a very valuable baseline to use.
51:04Again, we have it for 1QB and 2QB E-Trade calculator as part of DraftKit.
51:08Last question here, Jack comes from MLB Pimao. He says, how concerned should I be about Dak Prescott?
51:14Would you trade him for Goff or would you consider Tyler Shuck off waivers?
51:18Question, Jack, are you concerned at all about the way Dak played on Sunday Night Football?
51:23Not really. I mean, it wasn't great, but we have such an extended sample size of him being a very good NFL quarterback.
51:30He still has two of the best wide receivers in the league.
51:34I mean, with these pocket passes, it basically just does come down to passing efficiency.
51:38With Dak and Goff, both of their defenses are likely to be quite bad and both offenses should put up a bunch of points.
51:46I still lean Dak. He's just been better throughout his career when he's on the field.
51:50Shuck, I don't think, is in the same tier as those guys despite the game he had on Sunday.
51:56I mean, the first half that he put out there was really rough and then he just kind of got it all in comeback mode.
52:04So I'd have Dak and Goff a tier above, but I'd still have Dak a tier ahead of Goff.
52:10Yeah. And I'm like the biggest Goff guy ever.
52:12Like, I obviously love Jared Goff this year. I think he's going to go nuts.
52:17I was a little concerned the way he played in that game in week one.
52:21However, Jamison Williams, if he just catches the football, that game looks way different.
52:26And Jared Goff looks way different as well. Even saying all that, and I love Goff, I'd still rather have Dak here.
52:32Also, home game against Commanders here coming up, I think is a really good spot.
52:37All right. We've dilly-dallied long enough. Nobody watched all that.
52:40They just want to know what is the one move to make in their redraft fantasy league this year or right now.
52:47Actually, not this year. What I meant to say is one move to make ahead of week two.
52:52Mark, I'll give you the floor for the first move to make of the 2026 NFL season.
52:57All right. Nice. I'm going to have my first move be to sell Cam Scadaboo.
53:02You know, so I think it's always a little easier to identify some buys.
53:06So I wanted to lean into some sells here.
53:09And I'll start out with the good on Cam Scadaboo.
53:12He had 18 carries to Devin Singletary's six. That's great news.
53:15He got the two carries inside the five for the Giants.
53:19That's great news as well. Bad news in my mind, though.
53:22He only ran eight routes to Devin Singletary's 17.
53:25He got zero targets as well. And then, you know, again, kind of going back to the week one analysis, I think
53:32the Giants maybe played their softest opponent all year in terms of the Dallas defense.
53:36So I do think under Harbaugh and with Patrick Ricard there, this could be, you know, a lot of designed run game for Cam Scadaboo.
53:44But I'm very concerned about the pass game role for him.
53:47If he's not going to be out there running routes, they're going to lean on Devin Singletary in that fashion.
53:53I'm a little bit concerned that, you know, the Giants are going to be a middling offense, middling team going to be playing from behind a lot.
54:01And Cam Scadaboo is not an explosive back. Sure, he can get, you know, the extra yard or two.
54:07But at this point, his career is at 4.1 yards per carry.
54:11So I'm kind of fading, you know, just the goal line back on the Giants of an offense that I think probably
54:18had one of their better weeks in week one.
54:20I think people are overplaying, you know, the Scadaboo role, seeing, you know, that game against the Cowboys on primetime and thinking
54:27he had a better role than he does in reality.
54:30Yeah, I kind of like I hear you. He's not an explosive player.
54:34I'd rather use other guys. But I mean, these coaches on the Giants, this is what they want.
54:40They want Cam Scadaboo to bang his skull into some lineman and linebacker to like set up their play action.
54:46So he wants that too. He wants that too.
54:48You know, I guess one question I would have, Mark, is do you think Najee is going to be a factor at
54:55any point this season to Cam Scadaboo's role? Najee was a, I guess I call him a healthy scratch in week one,
55:02but maybe he just wasn't ready off the injury and not being with the team that long.
55:07Not necessarily. I think I think I'm more so just worried that, you know, the week one game script played out perfectly
55:14for Cam Scadaboo and that, you know, the Giants were able to control the ball the whole time, kind of bleed the clock, play with the lead.
55:22I just don't really think that's going to be the case.
55:25You know, I'm more concerned that like they get in trailing game scripts and Scadaboo can or, you know, gets back to running routes.
55:33That would be like the path that I'd be more concerned about in terms of him burning me on this cell.
55:39But now this doesn't even really matter if Najee Harris is involved, honestly, in my opinion.
55:44Yeah. I mean. Najee Harris is kind of like does similar things as Cam Scadaboo.
55:48And so. If he got in there, I think it would be a little bit of a problem just because these moron,
55:55these dolty coaches, I'm sure they love Najee also.
55:58I'm just not sure that Najee's. Going to get in there.
56:01But Tyron Tracy, you know, fumbled again, like he's in big trouble here for sure.
56:06All right. Anyways, they go. Go ahead with your move to make ahead of week two.
56:11Chuba Hubbard and the Panthers. Not sure if anyone new played the Bears defense and all the stats were very inflated because of that.
56:18Hubbard himself scored two touchdowns and finished with the eighth highest route share among all running backs.
56:23But that 58 percent number was one that he eclipsed only one time all last year.
56:28And unlike all the running backs around him, he does have someone who could at the very least potentially come for his job.
56:35So I'm going to take what I believe is the highest, the most points to be a Humberville school all year and sell him because of that.
56:43Yes, this is this is one that I knew Daigle was going to do because deep down in his heart, he has
56:50a full three point nine for Jonathan Brooks. He still thinks Jonathan Brooks is going to come back and shred the league.
56:57Am I wrong, Daigle? Do you not think Jonathan Brooks at some point this year is going to come back and start shredding?
57:04That 20 yard catch was pretty sweet. Did you see it?
57:07All right. Jack, go ahead with your move to make ahead of week two.
57:11Yeah, I know you guys said that nobody would sell him and that might be true, but I still think it's worth a shot.
57:19I'm going to do by Colston Loveland. A lot of it comes down to just this offensive environment as a whole.
57:25Ben Johnson is on the record saying that he wants the highest scoring offense in NFL history.
57:30Like Daigle said, he implied that he thought about going for two to score 60 points.
57:35I mean, this guy is just like a psychopath.
57:38I think that he's at the very minimum, a top three play caller in the NFL with McVay and Shanahan.
57:44The Bears defense is probably a bottom three unit.
57:47I think the offense is going to be unbelievable.
57:49Put up a bunch of points. Loveland had 34 routes on 38 dropbacks that led the Bears.
57:55And more importantly, he the Bears looked for him on two red zone plays or drew up to red zone plays for
58:01him that he got the target on one in the end zone.
58:05Didn't get the target on the other because the Panthers defended it well.
58:09He later had another end zone target that was negated by an interception.
58:13He had a 0.33 targets per hour run in the red zone last year.
58:17I think that he's the primary guy in the red zone.
58:21I think he's going to score a bunch of touchdowns this year.
58:24And the routes indicate to me that he is the top guy in this passing offense.
58:29So after the goose egg with how well the Bears offense played in week one, I am buying Colston Loveland.
58:35Yeah. I mean, if this was five years ago or 10 years ago, undoubtedly you'd be able to buy Colston Loveland this week.
58:42Like, you know, and I know we were going to like give us the hot dog meme, but thanks to people like us.
58:49I think people now are so woke to Colston Loveland is a good buy.
58:53I think you could argue that Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are just going to be bigger pieces of their team's offense
59:00because the pieces around them are just worse. And like Ben Johnson's like, oh, I'll go get nine targets for Khalif Raymond.
59:07But yeah, I'm not panicked on Colston Loveland at all.
59:10I like where we have him here. Still the tight end three, 38 overall.
59:14All right. So they told me that I could only make one move to make here this week, but I consulted with
59:21corporate and I am doing one and a half moves to make this week.
59:25The one at the first one, the buy low one-on-one to me is Jamison Williams.
59:30You know, 23% target share in that game, 54% air yards share.
59:33He was eighth among all wide receivers and expected fantasy points in week one was Jamison Williams.
59:39He just happened to have a really bad game and underperformed that opportunity badly.
59:43Dan Campbell loves Jamison Williams, just like as a dude, he's going to go right back to him.
59:48So that's like buy low one-on-one to me on Jamo there.
59:52Let me tech lord here. The buy low in the more difficult class, maybe buy low two-oh-one or buy low three-oh-one, a
59:58riskier one to me is buy Travion Henderson. And if somebody is just really panicked and down right now on Travion, I
60:05think it's an interesting spot to try to buy him.
60:08First of all, he's back in practice off the ankle injury.
60:12I think there's a decent chance he plays in week two.
60:15Anyone who watched that Patriots game in Seattle, I mean, they need playmakers so bad.
60:19And now AJ Brown is out four to six weeks.
60:23Romeo Dobbs was horrific. Ramondre is solid. I like him.
60:26They need more explosives in both the run and the pass game.
60:29And Travion can give it to them. And the schedule coming up for the Patriots, I think is a good one for him.
60:36Steelers, Jaguars, Bills, Raiders, Jets, Bears, Dolphins, Packers, Detroit in their next nine games.
60:40That's pretty good for creating explosives, I think. So maybe it's hard if someone dropped Travion Henderson.
60:46They're not ready to panic yet. They want to see him first.
60:49But if someone is selling low, I like buying on Travion Henderson here.
60:53We're up at 67 overall on him still in the rest of season top 150.
60:58All right. That is going to do it for the first rest of season top 150 show of the 2026 NFL season.
61:05We'll be back with this show each Wednesday. So be sure you're subscribed here on YouTube.
61:09It is indeed free. Also, be sure you check out the team by team show from yesterday.
61:15If you have not yet, we put a ton of effort and work into that.
61:19And of course, if you want to check out our rest of season top 150 rankings or redraft trade calculator, grab DraftKit Pro at establishtherun.com.
61:27For Mark, for Daigle, for Jack, for producer Luke, for producer Ryan, I'm Adam.
61:31Good luck, everybody.

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