Establish The Run

“At RB37 cost, I think it’s worth the risk” @​evansilva and @​adamlevitan talk Jonathon Brooks:

“To get him in the 30s now, with a chance to be 100% back half the season, that’s at least interesting to me.” @​adamlevitan and @​evansilva on Nabers avoiding PUP:

• Malik Nabers not expected to open camp on PUP • Alvin Kamara gets reconstructed deal • Alec Pierce not practicing @​adamlevitan and @​evansilva cover all the ranking updates from training camp news ⬇️

• Malik Nabers not expected to open camp on PUP • Alvin Kamara gets reconstructed deal • Alec Pierce not practicing @​adamlevitan and @​evansilva cover all the ranking updates from training camp news ⬇️

• Malik Nabers not expected to open camp on PUP • Alvin Kamara gets reconstructed deal • Alec Pierce not practicing @​adamlevitan and @​evansilva cover all the ranking updates from training camp news ⬇️

Silva has Terrence Ferguson ranked around tight end 20 and likes drafting him in best ball in particular, despite Ferguson potentially being the Rams' number three pass catcher. His value in best ball formats makes him an attractive late-round target.

Silva has Bijan at third overall in his rankings. While Puka Nakua is ranked second and would be preferred over Bijan in PPR formats, Silva would take Bijan over Puka in regular home leagues, indicating Bijan remains a top-three pick with strong value in standard scoring formats.

Silva prefers Pittman over Metcalf despite Metcalf being at 91 overall against home league ADP of 85 (meaning the market prefers Metcalf). Metcalf's game—taking short slants for explosive plays—does not align with Aaron Rodgers' quick-release, short-area passing style; Pittman is the better fit for Rodgers' system and will be the Steelers' best receiver.

Silva moved Pittman up three spots from WR 42 to WR 39 and is at 85 overall against home league ADP of 110, indicating he is undervalued by the market. Pittman will lead the Steelers in receiving and is a much better fit for Aaron Rodgers' quick-release, run-after-catch style than DK Metcalf; Pittman's game aligns with what Rodgers does nowadays.

JSN is a worse pick than both Puka Nakua and Jamar Chase due to losing offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak and having Sam Darnold at quarterback instead of elite QB situations. This downgrade in offensive context places JSN below the top two receivers in the rankings.

Chase is clearly a better pick than JSN due to superior quarterback situation (vs. Sam Darnold) and better offensive context. While Silva has moved Puka ahead of Chase at second overall, both are considered incredible bets; Chase and Puka are both clearly better than JSN at the top of the receiver rankings.

Puka has favorable playoff matchups with Dallas at home in week 15 and at Tampa in week 17, with week 16 at Seattle (Rams-Seahawks games historically produce high-scoring contests). Additionally, with Aaron Donald potentially returning, the Rams could field an outrageous defense, and Puka will command an outrageous target share.

Silva has moved Puka Nakua to second overall (ahead of Jamar Chase at fourth), believing he has a chance for a historic year. With no credible third receiver option for the Rams (Terrence Ferguson is the alternative), Puka projects for an outrageous target share; he has a bigger ceiling than Chase due to dealing with fewer pass-catchers and a better quarterback situation than JSN, and Silva would take him over Bijan in PPR formats.

Tyreek Hill admitted he has no power in his left leg and is likely done in the NFL. Despite an incredible fantasy career with 1,100+ receiving yards six times and 83 touchdowns in 145 games across elite quarterback situations (Mahomes and Tua), his career appears to be ending due to leg injury.

Junkins is a two-down profile on a really bad team (Thorns ranked 31st in offensive line), limiting his fantasy ceiling. Silva came in wanting to be aggressive on Junkins but has not been aggressive relative to market; he is at 58 overall while home league ADP is 47 overall, indicating the market is overvaluing him relative to his role constraints.

Kittle's ADP will fall significantly due to the red out designation on DraftKings, especially as more casual drafters enter and become aware of his Achilles injury status. Silva has been taking him at a discount relative to market expectations.

Kittle will start camp on active PUP and is likely to miss the first game, returning in weeks two or three. At age and coming off a torn Achilles, the primary concern is whether he'll retain the explosion and run-after-catch ability that forms the foundation of his receiving game; if he returns with limited targets and diminished athleticism, he could disappoint despite not being drafted aggressively.

Silva expresses skepticism about Chuba Hubbard's fantasy upside, stating he is 'not winning anybody any fantasy leagues' and 'not going to move the needle on the actual real life NFL field,' suggesting the Panthers will eventually pivot to Jonathan Brooks as the primary back.

Silva ranks Jonathan Brooks at 99 overall, compared to Chuba Hubbard at 82 overall; Silva acknowledges Brooks' playoff schedule (week 16 at Pittsburgh, week 17 vs. Seattle) is not ideal but considers him worth the risk at his cost, despite a history of fading Brooks that has been 'such a hit' for the ETR team.

Silva projects Jonathan Brooks as a conceivable midseason lead-back scenario for the Panthers; he expects Brooks to come out playing effectively and become 'clearly more effective than Chuba Hubbard,' with the Panthers potentially making it 'the Jonathan Brooks show' by midseason given the team's overall weakness and lack of other offensive weapons.

If Rasheed Rice avoids an NFL suspension—which Silva believes is increasingly unlikely given the NFL's reduced suspension frequency in recent years—he will perform at an elite level in fantasy; Silva states 'Rasheed Rice will crush in fantasy. No question.'

Silva ranks Rasheed Rice at 45 overall in half-PPR but notes he is significantly better in full-PPR formats; Silva expects to move him up as he gains more confidence, acknowledging the current ranking is well behind market expectations.

Justin Herbert is preferred over Patrick Mahomes in the quarterback range. Silva feels better about Herbert and similar quarterback types (Lawrence, Dart) than Mahomes given the Chiefs' shift to a run-heavy offense.

Trevor Lawrence is preferred over Patrick Mahomes in the quarterback range. Silva feels better about Lawrence and similar quarterback types (Herbert, Dart) than Mahomes given the Chiefs' shift to a run-heavy offense.

Zach Charbonnet is significantly worse than Kenneth Walker. Walker was offended at being benched for Charbonnet in Seattle and wanted to leave partly because of this, which led him to join the Chiefs for a promised huge workload.

Xavier Worthy remains unproven and is characterized as 'still sort of like a hope and a prayer' in the Chiefs receiver core, which is not very impressive overall.

Silva does not trust Rasheed Rice whatsoever as a player. While Rice could catch 100 balls if everything goes smoothly off the field, Silva is concerned about his reliability and character. Additionally, Rice may not be entirely out of the woods regarding a potential NFL suspension, which adds uncertainty to his season outlook.

Rasheed Rice has been cleared in full after his knee injury and jail situation. He averaged 6.4 catches per game over the last two years while constantly dealing with injuries. If he stays healthy all season, he could catch 100-110+ balls, which would not be shocking. In full PPR scoring, Rasheed Rice is a pretty strong pick. He is a candidate to lead the NFL in catches.

Travis Kelce is old and part of an aging receiver core for the Chiefs. The offense is being built around Kenneth Walker at running back rather than pass-heavy looks, which will reduce Kelce's volume and opportunity.

Kenneth Walker is one of the best values in fantasy football right now. He goes in the second round every time but should be a fringe first-round pick. The Chiefs have built their offense around him with a good offensive line, and Mahomes said at camp, 'I think I ran a little bit too much last season. If all else fails, I'll just hand it off to Walker and let him go to work.' Walker will get heavy workload on early downs and in the passing game. Defenses must play deep safety coverage to counter Mahomes, which will give Walker light boxes. There's minimal competition behind him with Demercado as the RB2. Walker left Seattle partly because he was offended at being benched for Zach Charbonnet, and the Chiefs promised him a huge workload.

Mahomes' scramble rate was abnormally high last season and is expected to decline significantly; the Chiefs removed quarterback sneaks from the playbook after his high ankle sprain injury years ago, and he won't be running much. The receiver core is not impressive—Travis Kelsey is aging, Rasheed Rice is talented but inconsistent, and Xavier Worthy remains unproven. The offense is being built around Kenneth Walker at running back, making it more run-heavy. From a math perspective, Mahomes may look better with fewer passing attempts, but Silva prefers other quarterbacks in that range like Trevor Lawrence, Herbert, and Dart.

Mahomes is practicing in full seven and a half months after ACL surgery, rolling out both ways and throwing on the run, which is impressive recovery progress. However, Evan Silva ranks him at 120 overall, well behind the home league ADP of 100 overall. Silva's concern is that Mahomes admitted he ran too much last year—a massive part of his fantasy success—and his scramble rate was off the charts compared to his normal baseline. The Chiefs may reduce his rushing volume following his injury, similar to how they removed the quarterback sneak from the playbook after his previous high ankle sprain.

Adam Levitan wants to be in on Love, believing his talent level is going way too late in drafts; Evan Silva likes taking him at picks 26–27 and thinks he fits the construction he wants in many of his drafts, though Silva expresses concern about the Hackett coaching situation. Love has been getting first-team reps at Cardinals practice.

Nathaniel Hackett publicly stated he is excited for Conner to show what he has in the Cardinals running back room, but Algier and Jeremiah Love have been getting first-team reps at practice; Hackett's public endorsement may be an attempt to pump up Conner's trade value rather than reflect actual depth chart positioning.

Wilson's fantasy outlook is clouded by the Cardinals offense being expected to be a disaster; the broader offensive dysfunction creates uncertainty around his production ceiling.

Levitan expects Gardner Minshew to get starts for the Cardinals alongside Carson Beck due to the team's difficult schedule and poor outlook; this indicates the Cardinals will cycle through quarterbacks, limiting fantasy production from any single passer.

Levitan expects Carson Beck to get starts for the Cardinals due to their difficult schedule and expects the team to be an 0-17 candidate with Beck in the role, drawing parallels to Deshaun Kaiser's failed tenure; this suggests minimal fantasy upside from Cardinals passing game if Beck takes over.

Silva ranks Marvin Harrison at 71 overall, significantly ahead of Michael Wilson at 108; Silva views Harrison as a theoretically more talented player than Wilson, though he expresses limited confidence in the Cardinals offense overall.

Silva and Levitan have Brissett ranked very low due to Cardinals' difficult schedule (hardest in the league, especially first 13 games) and expectation that new coaching staff will not allow him to drop back 40-50 times per game like last year; they expect Carson Beck and Gardner Minshew to get starts, making Brissett an unreliable fantasy option despite garbage-time production last year.

Brissett under center is good for Wilson, who went off with Brissett last year; however, Silva ranks Wilson at 108 overall, creating a significant gap versus Marvin Harrison at 71, reflecting concerns about the Cardinals offense becoming a disaster under new coaching.