Market Monday: Malik Nabers Pops, David Montgomery Falls (Episode 1000!! with Adam Levitan)

Adam Levitan expects Anthony Richardson (Mendoza) to start only 6-10 games before being benched, contrasting with the Gabe Brisset situation where a backup holds the job longer.

Braylon Allen fell 3.6 spots to 193 overall, but Levitan sees tournament-winning value in late-round running backs from an injury-replacement perspective. If Breece Hall goes down, Levitan's initial assessment is that Allen would get mostly the work with Isaiah Davis in a change-of-pace role, making him valuable as a handcuff with upside if the starter is injured.

Adam Levitan has backed off Braylon Allen due to uncertainty in the Jets backfield; recent beat writer speculation suggests Isaiah Davis could be ahead of or equal to Allen in the depth chart, and if Breece Hall goes down, both would likely split work on a struggling team, which spooks Levitan on Allen's standalone value.

Adam Levitan discusses Breece Hall as the starter in the Jets backfield; if Hall goes down, Levitan's initial assessment is that Braylon Allen would get mostly the work with Isaiah Davis in a change-of-pace role.

Adam Levitan projects Carson Beck will start for the Falcons late in the season, displacing Gabe Brisset.

Adam Levitan expects Colson Loveland to "smash" at the tight end position, grouping him with Jalen Bowers as elite tight end prospects with significant upside potential.

Adam Levitan likes Dallas Goedert as a late-round tight end option with value, grouping him with Juwan Johnson, Okonkwo, Hawkinson, and Helm as players who can be acquired late in drafts.

David Montgomery is listed as a faller in best ball ADP this week, as indicated by the episode title 'Market Monday: Malik Nabers Pops, David Montgomery Falls.' This represents negative market movement and suggests declining draft value.

Adam Levitan is skeptical of David Montgomery's fantasy value despite his large workload. While Montgomery will get a huge workload as a three-down workhorse signed to $10 million guaranteed by the Texans, Levitan notes the Texans' run game and offensive line have been broken for years and Montgomery does not create much on his own. Levitan rates him as "okay around 50 overall" but prefers wide receivers in that range like Luther Burden, McLaurin, Devontae Adams, Jamison Williams, and Mike Evans.

Adam Levitan rates Montgomery around 50 overall and does not find him exciting; he does not create much on his own and Levitan prefers wide receivers in that range (Luther Burden, McLaurin, Devontae Adams, Jamison Williams, Mike Evans) on DraftKings. Levitan's broader point is that Montgomery and Marks should not be moving based on coach quotes about backfield usage, as such reports often lack specificity about actual snap/carry splits.

Adam Levitan likes David Njoku as a late-round tight end option with value, grouping him with Goedert, Juwan Johnson, Okonkwo, Hawkinson, and Helm as players who can be acquired late in drafts.

Adam Levitan notes the Patriots attempted to bench Drake May early in his rookie season, similar to other rookie quarterback situations.

Adam Levitan believes Fernando Mendoza's ADP fall (down 2.8 spots to 176 overall) is overblown; the market is spooked by Las Vegas rhetoric about Kirk Cousins starting week one, but Levitan argues this is typical for highly drafted rookie QBs—citing Russell Wilson, Jackson Dart, Tyler Shuck, Drake May, and Michael Penix as examples of rookie QBs who were supposed to sit but eventually played, suggesting Mendoza will get his chance despite current team messaging.

Adam Levitan identifies Isaiah Davis as a change-of-pace back in the Jets backfield; if Breece Hall goes down, Levitan expects Braylon Allen to get mostly the work with Davis in a secondary role.

Adam Levitan notes recent beat writer speculation that Isaiah Davis could be ahead of or equal to Braylon Allen in the Jets backfield hierarchy; if Breece Hall goes down, Davis would likely see significant work alongside Allen on a struggling team.

Adam Levitan mentions Isiah Pacheco as an example of an end-of-draft running back whose standalone value (4-6 points per week or occasional 15-point games) matters less than his tournament-winning value as a potential injury replacement if the starter goes down.

Adam Levitan uses James Cook as a reference point when discussing Ray Davis's injury-replacement value; if Cook goes down, Levitan expects Davis to assume a really big and productive role.

Adam Levitan prefers Jamison Williams as a wide receiver option at the 50 overall ADP range over David Montgomery, suggesting Williams offers better value than the Texans running back.

Adam Levitan lists Jamison Williams among wide receivers he prefers to draft in the 50 overall range over David Montgomery, particularly on DraftKings.

Adam Levitan mentions Justice Hill as an example of an end-of-draft running back whose standalone value (4-6 points per week or occasional 15-point games) matters less than his tournament-winning value as a potential injury replacement if the starter goes down.

Adam Levitan flags Kirk Cousins as injury-prone at age 38 with throwing shoulder injuries and an Achilles tear, expecting him to be benched for Michael Penix mid-season with the Falcons.

Adam Levitan notes Kyle Pitts has less contingent value than Sam Laporta because Pitts only gets a boost if Drake London goes down, whereas Laporta benefits from multiple injury scenarios (Gibbs, Jameson Williams, or Amon Ra).

Adam Levitan likes Luke Musgrave as a late-round tight end option with value, grouping him with Goedert, Juwan Johnson, Okonkwo, Hawkinson, and Helm as players who can be acquired late in drafts.

Adam Levitan prefers Luther Burden as a wide receiver option at the 50 overall ADP range over David Montgomery, suggesting Burden offers better value than the Texans running back.

Adam Levitan lists Luther Burden among wide receivers he prefers to draft in the 50 overall range over David Montgomery, particularly on DraftKings.

Malik Nabers has risen 3.5 spots on DraftKings to 37 overall in best ball ADP. Adam Levitan identifies the Nabers situation as one of the most important fantasy stories of the season and has discussed it multiple times on Market Monday, indicating significant market movement and analytical focus on his recovery and draft positioning.

Malik Nabers started training camp on the active/PUP list rather than reserve/PUP, which is significant because players on reserve/PUP are ineligible to play for the first four games. The Giants' decision to use active/PUP strongly suggests they expect Nabers to play sometime before week four. However, this does not guarantee his knee is 100%, that he'll practice soon, that he's a lock for week one, or that he'll perform at elite levels; he underwent ACL repair and full meniscus repair.

Adam Levitan upgraded Malik Nabers' rank from 38–39 to 30th overall on full PPR DraftKings following news that he will practice in August and play in September post-ACL/meniscus repair. Levitan argues that if Nabers can return by September, he will be 90–95% of himself by November–December when playoff stakes are highest; the Jets' week 16 matchup at Detroit and week 17 at Dallas are favorable spots. Levitan targets 8% exposure of Nabers at an average pick cost around 35th overall, acknowledging downside risk (aggravation, diminished performance) but favoring the late-season upside.

Adam Levitan mentions Michael Penix as part of a broader pattern of rookie and backup quarterbacks seeing playing time changes mid-season.

Adam Levitan prefers Mike Evans as a wide receiver option at the 50 overall ADP range over David Montgomery, suggesting Evans offers better value than the Texans running back.

Adam Levitan lists Mike Evans among wide receivers he prefers to draft in the 50 overall range over David Montgomery, particularly on DraftKings.

Adam Levitan has been targeting Ray Davis as an end-of-draft running back because he expects really big and productive roles for Davis if James Cook goes down, making him valuable from a tournament-winning injury-replacement perspective.

Adam Levitan targets Ray Davis as a high-upside handcuff with a really big and productive role if Saquon Barkley or James Cook goes down; positioned as a league-winner type backup.

Adam Levitan expects Russell Wilson to start early in the season before the Giants bench him for Jackson Dart, citing Wilson's decline ('dust').

Sam Laporta rose 3 spots to 88th overall on full PPR DraftKings, indicating positive market movement.

Laporta underwent a micro disectomy last November to repair a fully herniated disc in his back and was fully cleared for camp, confirming offseason expectations that he would be healthy. Adam Levitan notes the market has been catching up to their ahead-of-market ranking on Laporta over the past few months.

Adam Levitan likes Laporta at 88 overall on DraftKings as a tight end with legitimate target-earning and touchdown-scoring upside on a team projected to lead the NFL in touchdowns. He views Laporta as potentially the best bet among mid-range tight ends to match the production of elite options like Bowers, McBride, and Loveland if they get the "nut run out." Laporta also has contingent value if any of Gibbs, Jameson Williams, or Amon Ra goes down, providing more injury-related boost potential than competitors like Pitts, Kraft, or Fannin.

Adam Levitan uses Saquon Barkley as a reference point when discussing Tank Bigsby's injury-replacement value; if Barkley goes down, Levitan expects Bigsby to assume a really big and productive role.

Adam Levitan has been targeting Tank Bigsby as an end-of-draft running back because he expects really big and productive roles for Bigsby if Saquon Barkley goes down, making him valuable from a tournament-winning injury-replacement perspective.

Adam Levitan targets Tank Bigsby as a high-upside handcuff with a really big and productive role if Saquon Barkley or James Cook goes down; positioned as a league-winner type backup.

Adam Levitan prefers Terry McLaurin as a wide receiver option at the 50 overall ADP range over David Montgomery, suggesting McLaurin offers better value than the Texans running back.

Adam Levitan lists Terry McLaurin among wide receivers he prefers to draft in the 50 overall range over David Montgomery, particularly on DraftKings.

Adam Levitan disputes a report from Jane Slater suggesting Woody Marks would split lead back duties with David Montgomery on the Texans. Levitan notes Marks was poor as a rusher last year with 3.6 yards per carry on 196 carries, ranking 53rd among 58 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus's elusive rating. The Texans signed Montgomery to $10 million guaranteed and positioned him as a three-down workhorse, making a lead-back split unlikely.