PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Market Monday: Buy Or Sell The New Prices On Jeremiyah Love, Alec Pierce, Tony Pollard? (Episode 1003 with Adam Levitan)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 3, 2026
Published
Mon, August 3, 2026
7
Player insights
7
Players mentioned
Topics
Alec PierceDeebo SamuelJeremiyah LoveRicky PearsallTank BigsbyTank DellTony Pollard
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
PositiveValue20:08
Adam Levitan views the recent dip in Alec Pierce's ADP (sinking toward pick 90) as a buying opportunity. Despite starting camp on PUP following ankle surgery, Levitan notes that Daniel Jones's recovery is a positive sign for the offense, and suggests Pierce's ankle might be improved post-surgery.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
NegativeUsage10:02
Adam Levitan expresses concern about Deebo Samuel's ability to maintain his high-level tackle-breaking and yards-after-catch efficiency at age 30. While he still considers Samuel a target in the late 120s/130s due to the San Francisco scheme, he prefers Stribbling at current costs.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveValue23:18
Adam Levitan remains bullish on Jeremiah Love despite his ADP slide. He attributes the slide to coaching staff 'committee' rhetoric, the team listing Tyler Allgeier as RB1, and drafter fatigue from previous rookie RB busts. Levitan argues that passing on a player drafted 3rd overall in the NFL draft in the middle of the 3rd round is a mistake.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury2:30
Adam Levitan expresses significant concern regarding Pearsall's PCL injury, noting that such injuries have historically derailed careers (e.g., Brashad Perriman) or caused multi-year struggles (e.g., Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid). Levitan regrets being overweight on Pearsall at his previous ADP and warns that drafting players coming off PCL issues above rank is a mistake.
Insight pageTank Bigsby
PositiveSleeper15:12
Adam Levitan highlights Tank Bigsby as a high-ceiling handcuff to Saquon Barkley. Despite limited standalone value, Bigsby's efficiency (5.9 YPC last year) and the potential for increased usage in a new Eagles scheme make him a priority late-round target. Levitan notes that Bigsby's range of outcomes is often missed by standard median-projection rankings.
Insight pageTank Dell
NegativeInjury10:56
Adam Levitan is cautious about chasing Tank Dell's rising ADP. Although Dell is active for camp, he is not yet practicing following a severe December knee injury (ACL, MCL, LCL, meniscus). Levitan prefers Trey Harris or Aidy Mitchell in that range, citing the risk that Dell may not return to his previous form.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeBust26:47
Adam Levitan is fading Tony Pollard at his current ADP (mid-70s). He questions the ceiling for a 29-year-old running back playing behind a poor offensive line (ranked 32nd) with a capable backup (Tajie Spears) and a team unlikely to score many touchdowns. Levitan prefers taking volatile swings on younger backs like Bachel Tootin or Travion Henderson.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1003 of the official Establish The Run podcast.
0:05My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and it is time for the show you cannot survive without, Market Monday.
0:15Each week, I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices.
0:24The idea is simple, give you an idea of what the market is thinking about players and also, how I'm thinking about them.
0:33Reminder, if you want to use the rankings that the guys who won both the DraftKings and Underdog Best Ball flagships last
0:41year for $2 million each, if you want those rankings, you need the ETR Best Ball product.
0:47Obviously, I'm biased, but the reason all the sharpest people upload our rankings is because they know how hard we grind every
0:55shred of information to ensure those uploadable rankings are as accurate as possible.
1:00Our Best Ball product is just $60 and renews 365 days from your purchase date.
1:05So head to EstablishTheRun.com for details. Also, for my true grinders out there, if you are putting in volume, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant.
1:15As Sam Shepard, the DK winner, did last year, link to the Solver Draft Assistant is in the Best Ball tab on ETR.
1:23Oh, also, I think a lot of what I talk about on Market Monday here applies to Season Long also, but don't
1:31forget about DraftKings Pro or the Early Bird Bundle for all your needs in Season Long Streets.
1:38All right, let's start with the risers from the last seven days.
1:42First one, Dajon Stribbling up 34 spots to 148 overall and rising also Debo Samuel up 21.3 spots to 147 overall.
1:50Before I get into it on Stribbling and Debo, I just wanted to spend a minute on the Ricky Pearsall situation.
1:57So I really liked Pearsall this season. We started off ahead of Market on him in terms of rank, but the Market
2:05really went nuts on Pearsall for the last two to four weeks, and so we fell a bit behind Market in rank.
2:13And yet, I still liked him enough to IKB, I know better, our rank on Pearsall a little bit.
2:20So as soon as I heard this news on Pearsall, the PCL stuff last week, I of course did the painful best ball tradition like no other.
2:30I went to the Solver, fired up that free portfolio tool, and I searched my Pearsall exposure.
2:36Just feels like a kick right in the cock, man.
2:40You know, I've done 69 drafts. I have 15.9% Pearsall in terms of exposure and 25.2% Pearsall in terms of fees.
2:48I have 2006 actual dollars on Pearsall, which probably can be marked zero.
2:53So what can I learn from this? I think it's really easy in a lot of spots in life, but I think
3:01it's just really easy to just say, yeah, man, you got unlucky.
3:05Dude got hurt. But that's not really the way my brain works.
3:09It's really tough for me to believe that I'm not in control, that there's nothing I could have done.
3:16I've talked about that a little bit with the health preventative screening stuff, but in this Pearsall case, like if maybe the
3:24mistake like going above our rank for a dude off of a PCL injury, which by the way, in some cases seems
3:32much worse than an ACL tear now. I mean, PCL ruined Bauer's season last year.
3:38Kyle Pitts for a couple years. Kincaid for a couple years.
3:42Brashad Perriman's career. I'm sure there's been more. But anyways, my point is maybe getting overweight, drafting above our rank on a
3:50guy like Pearsall coming off of the PCL situation.
3:53Maybe that's bad, especially when there were other wide receivers that I really like in that range.
3:59Downs, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison. Like I easily could have been flatter through that tier.
4:06So I don't know. I'm pretty sick about it.
4:09I'm still going to do a lot more drafting.
4:12You know, like I said, I have 2006 bucks on Pearsall right now.
4:17I'll probably end up with something like 20K in play on best ball.
4:22So it won't look as bad. But man, taking a zero on so many higher stakes teams and we're still five weeks from the season.
4:31It's just really tough to swallow. You know, I don't know what else there is to say.
4:37Anyways, as for the fallout. So I had already been thankfully IKBing, I know bettering my way onto Stribbling before all this.
4:45I just generally think prospect bros are way overconfident in their takes.
4:50And that flows through massively to best ball ADP.
4:53I mean, prospect bros absolutely hated Stribbling. NFL seemed to really like him.
4:58But he's a 33rd overall pick in the draft and he was going like 190.
5:03So just that alone made him undervalued, I thought.
5:06Then you throw in that he plays in a Kyle Shanahan offense.
5:11Christian McCaffrey is an injury risk. George Kittle is off an Achilles injury.
5:16Mike Evans is old. Pearsall hadn't been able to stay healthy.
5:20Christian Kirk is barely an NFL player anymore. So the question now is how high should Stribbling go?
5:26He's going to play that grinder spot in the 49ers offense.
5:30The role that Juwan Jennings played. Mike Evans is going to play the X and Debo Samuel doing screens, handoffs, yak stuff.
5:38This role that Stribbling is going to play in this role.
5:42Juwan Jennings stumbled into 77 catches, 975 yards, six touchdowns in 2024.
5:47And then 55, 643, nine in 2025. Stribbling is a better athlete.
5:51He ran a 436 at 6'2", 207. Really good jump numbers.
5:55I'm willing to take Stribbling in the 120s, you know, in that Concepcion, Coker, Dobbs group.
6:01I think he's maybe better than those guys. Now, I would have been willing to take Stribbling even higher than that if they didn't sign Debo.
6:10My concern with the Debo outlook is just his entire game is doing these freaky, insane things in terms of tackle breaking and yards after catch.
6:20Can he do that at age 30 now? I'm a little worried, but going back to San Francisco where they know how
6:28to use him so well, I'd still take Debo, you know, in the late 120s, 130s.
6:34I do prefer Stribbling. But again, I shade these San Francisco guys a little higher than pure rank because of the contingent value.
6:42If CMC were to go down or Kittle doesn't make it back or something happens to Mike Evans, it's just even better for Stribbling and Jennings.
6:52So I take those guys a little bit ahead of rank.
6:56Second riser, Tank Dell up five and a half spots to 184 overall.
7:00Meanwhile, Jalen Knoll down six spots to 228 overall down in undrafted territory now.
7:06Texans opened up training camp last week and it was actually Jalen Knoll out of nowhere who started camp on the NFI list due to a finger injury.
7:16He's going to miss the first few weeks of camp.
7:19Meanwhile, somewhat surprisingly, Tank Dell opened camp not on any injury list.
7:24Dell, remember, went 47-709-7 in just 11 games as an NFL rookie back in 2023.
7:29Wasn't as good in 2024. Then sustains this really gruesome knee injury in December.
7:34That was torn ACL, MCL, LCL meniscus damage. I remember thinking to myself, like, he may never play in the NFL again, Tank Dell.
7:43He sits out the rest of 2024, sits out all of 2025.
7:48Now he's technically active for camp, but I want to be clear, Tank Dell is not actually practicing yet.
7:55And I'm recording this Monday around noon Eastern. They want Tank Dell to be active so he can do walkthroughs, but he's not actually practicing.
8:04So it's a good sign. He's certainly not out of the woods.
8:08And by the way, Jaden Higgins is a baller.
8:11Obviously, Nico is a baller. I think they like Xavier Hutchinson.
8:15So I don't love chasing Tank Dell up the board here.
8:19I prefer Trey Harris. I prefer Aidy Mitchell. I'll mix in some Dell when I need wide receiver help.
8:26But there's some risk here that this is still zero.
8:30You know, it's not a lock that Tank Dell's knee is right or he's back to his old ways.
8:37And as for Jalen Knoll, I took a lot of him early in the best ball season as I thought he had
8:45a clean path towards a slot role between outside alphas, Nico and Higgins.
8:50Like in round 20, I thought that was strong.
8:53But now Jalen Knoll is hurt. I still can't figure out why they didn't play him more last year.
9:00Still no information on that. They preferred Xavier Hutchinson.
9:03They preferred Christian Kirk, who may be out of the league soon.
9:08So I've kind of backed off the Knoll stuff a little bit here.
9:12Just not great right now. Third riser I want to hit on is Tank Bigsby up 4.1 spots to 167 overall.
9:20I've already talked a lot about Bigsby this offseason, but this is where straight median projection based rankings, they don't make sense.
9:28Like those kind of systems that don't capture any ceiling, they fail to capture Bigsby's range of outcomes.
9:35Like all the times in the sim that Saquon Barkley gets hurt.
9:39And that's why we layer in ceiling cases, odds to hit ceiling into our season-long projections.
9:45And we have Bigsby's ceiling stuff cranked. It sucks that Bigsby is steaming so hard right now because he was clearly one
9:53of the better late round running back picks to me.
9:57Saquon Barkley is 29 years old. He has almost 2200 NFL touches on his tires.
10:02The Eagles are changing schemes, more under center, more wide zone, which maybe is good for Bigsby.
10:08Bigsby's been a very good player on a per-touch basis, especially last year in Philly.
10:14I'm not saying Bigsby is better than Saquon by any means, but he did get 5.9 yards per carry last year on a very small sample.
10:23Saquon, just 4.1. And then we have a bunch of camp noise that Bigsby's making.
10:29You know, beat writers talking him up, saying he's going to have a real role.
10:34We just have to be careful with Bigsby's price, I think, because he does not have much standalone value.
10:41Even if he gets 6 to 8 carries per game.
10:45And last year, he only got 3.6 carries per game.
10:49Like, 6 to 8 carries between the 20s. No pass game roll.
10:53Saquon hurts at the goal line. That's tough as his price gets more expensive.
10:58The reason to take Bigsby is if the running back injury luck turns.
11:03And this year, we have total chaos at the running back position.
11:07Bigsby, a seamless handcuff to the Saquon role. And then we have a running back with a top 10 projection on a late round pick.
11:16So, yeah, I've been taking Bigsby in the 160s and later a lot.
11:21I don't want a ton of handcuff-only running backs on one team.
11:26But yes, I want some. Because after running backs have sustained health so strongly the last couple years, it's certainly possible that turns this year.
11:35And if it does, with the running back thirst and running back prices being so high, the more wide receiver-heavy teams with
11:43some handcuffed running backs late, that structure would smash, you know, similar to how it went in 2022-2023 best ball.
11:50So, yeah, if you caught the staff home league mock video we did, I took Bigsby even higher in that format, the
11:58season-long format, because I can just put him on my bench and wait.
12:03It's not a big deal to take weekly zeros like it is in best ball.
12:08All right, this week's fallers. First one, Alec Pierce down 7.3 spots to 88 overall.
12:14Talked about this with Silva on last week's news show, but I wanted to highlight it here because of the price drop.
12:22Alec Pierce was going around in the 70s, maybe pick 80 for most of the summer.
12:28He starts camp on active slash PUP due to the ankle surgery.
12:32Totally expected he was going to start on PUP, and he drops seven spots in a week.
12:38And this is all because of that red out tag that DK put next to his name, next to Kittle's name.
12:46I do think this is the time to buy on Alec Pierce as he sinks toward pick 90.
12:53He's been playing through this ankle injury since 2020, since 2024.
12:57Colts knew about it, still gave him 84 million guaranteed, still let Michael Pittman walk.
13:02Haven't brought in any free agents yet, although I think there's a good chance that they will.
13:08Another positive for Pierce is Daniel Jones Achilles is looking really good at camp.
13:13He's running around without restriction. That's huge. So, I mean, what if Pierce's ankle is better now after the surgery than it
13:21was when he was one of the best deep threats in the NFL the last couple years?
13:28What if Pierce can actually do some of the Pittman-esque middle area stuff?
13:32I have concerns that he can't. I have concerns the Colts overpaid massively for a field stretcher.
13:39But at pick 88 here, I think that's more than baked in.
13:43Again, one of the reasons that the running back heavy starts feel so good is this group of wide receivers like Pierce,
13:51Josh Downs, Pittman, Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison, Matthew Golden.
13:54It's a strong group that goes between pick 85 and 110.
13:58Second faller. Cardinals rookie running back Jeremiah Love down three spots to 30th overall.
14:03I think there's a couple things going on here with this Jeremiah Love slide.
14:09First, Cardinals coaches, you know, Nathaniel Hackett, this idiot.
14:12They're going around talking about the committee rhetoric. That's going to scare people.
14:17You know, they have Algier listed first on the depth chart.
14:21It's going to scare people. And speaking of scaring people, I mean, drafters have been burned by high rookie draft picks at the running back position.
14:30Gentry last year was bad. Hampton last year didn't work out.
14:34B. John Robinson got Arthur Smith in 2023. So I think that's still in people's mouths with Jeremiah Love.
14:41And then lastly, for on this Love slide, the Malik neighbors health has pushed neighbors up to the 2-3 turn a lot.
14:49I think people feel better about him than Love.
14:52And I guess I should note that I've been taking Malik neighbors over Jeremiah Love in that spot there lately, in part
15:01to catch up on my neighbor's exposure a bit, but also because I think neighbor's just a better play than Jeremiah Love if he's anywhere near 100%.
15:10But anyway, Love might keep getting cheaper. Like, the Cardinals are going to keep talking about committee.
15:17They listed Algier as running back one, as I said.
15:20Trey Benson's probably gone, but we'll see on James Conner.
15:24People are going to talk about the brutal schedule, which is true.
15:28Like, I get all that. And I'd be lying if I said I felt great about Jeremiah Love.
15:35But I'm not passing on the running back who went third overall in the NFL draft in the middle of the third round of a fantasy draft.
15:45Like, just a straight up, close your eyes, bet on talent, let the chips fall situation.
15:51And I do think if Jente, who had an ADP around 12 last year, if that hadn't gone so poorly, I do
15:59think people would be more into Jeremiah Love this year.
16:02And one thing really has nothing to do with the other, you know?
16:07All right, third and final faller, Tony Pollard down 2.2 spots to 74 overall on DraftKings.
16:13This is the opposite of the Tank-Bigsby ranking discussion.
16:16If you only do rankings by straight medium projection, Pollard's going to look really good.
16:22Like, he is the unquestioned feature back, four straight 1,000-yard seasons.
16:26He's fine in the pass game. But I question what's the ceiling on Tony Pollard as a 29-year-old running back playing behind
16:34Brandon Thorne's 32nd-ranked offensive line with a decent passing back behind him in Tajie Spears on a team that's unlikely to score a lot of touchdowns.
16:43I mean, to me, Pollard is a very specific team build kind of pick.
16:48If I fall behind that running back, Pollard makes some sense just getting some projectable volume at the position at a late
16:56cost, you know, here in the mid-70s. But generally, this kind of pick, you know, this older running back without much of
17:04a ceiling, it's not the kind of pick I like to make.
17:09I prefer the big swings on Bachel Tootin and Travion Henderson, even at cost.
17:14And then after Pollard goes, there's some more volatile swings at running back that I like to make.
17:21RJ Harvey, Dobbins, could make a case for Gainwell, Blake Corum too.
17:25All right. That is going to do it for another edition of Market Monday.
17:30Appreciate everyone listening. Be sure to hit subscribe on our free YouTube page so we can continue to bring you more shows
17:38that you cannot fathom living without, like the upcoming Man vs.
17:42Machine and auction show. Remember, exposure tool for best ball bros is free on Solver.
17:48You just need an account. Highly, highly, highly recommend that so you keep track of where you're getting guys, who you're getting
17:56them with, how much you have of guys, etc.
17:59All right. For Bruce O'Luke, Bruce O'Ryan, Jerry, you must be a beast in the world.
18:05I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.