0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 994 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and it is time for the show you cannot survive without, Market Monday.
0:14Each Monday, I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices.
0:24The idea is simple, give you an idea of what the market is thinking about players and also how I'm thinking about them.
0:33Reminder that if you want to use the rankings that the guys who won both the DraftKings and Underdog Best Ball flagships
0:41last year for $2 million each, if you want those rankings, you need the ETR Best Ball product.
0:48Obviously, I'm biased, but the reason the sharpest people all upload our rankings and draft off them as a baseline is because
0:56they know how hard we grind every shred of information to ensure those uploadable rankings are as accurate as possible.
1:03Our Best Ball product is just $60 and renews 365 days from your purchase date, so head to EstablishTheRun.com for details.
1:11Also, for my true grinders out there, if you're putting in volume, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant, as Sam
1:20Shepard, the DK winner, did last year on his way to $2 million.
1:24Link to that is in the Best Ball tab on ETR.
1:29All right, going to start with the risers from the last seven days.
1:33First up is Rashid Shaheed, Seahawks wide receiver, up 7.3 spots to 138 overall on DraftKings.
1:39There has been no hard news on Shaheed this offseason.
1:43No injuries around him, no actual depth chart changes in the wide receiver room.
1:48But there has been a bunch of positive offseason buzz around Shaheed, and I do, you know, I got to say, I kind of buy it.
1:58Remember last season, the Seahawks traded for Rashid Shaheed in November.
2:02Gave the Saints a round four pick, a round five pick, for the right to pay Shaheed a three-year, $51 million contract that included $35 million in guarantees.
2:13The integration of Shaheed into the Seahawks at that point and the rest of the year was not great, at least as a receiver.
2:22Shaheed saw just 3.0 targets per game, scored zero touchdowns, was unusable in fantasy.
2:27So to justify an ADP of 138 now heading into 2026, we're making a leap of faith.
2:33The faith, the leap, is that new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury and head coach Mike McDonald, they're going to use the offseason
2:42to fully integrate Shaheed into a big role. Here is a quote from Jeremy Fowler talking on ESPN about Shaheed.
2:49He had a major spring. He and Sam Darnold are really hitting it off.
2:54They're going to give him more. They're going to give him more short and intermediate stuff to Shaheed.
3:01He's going to be a big-time player for them.
3:05Normally, I would brush off this kind of report that's just obviously a general manager from the Seahawks or a front office
3:13or a coach from the Seahawks gassing up their guy.
3:17But I kind of buy this because I think it makes sense.
3:21The Seahawks made a big capital investment in Shaheed.
3:24This offseason, they lose a huge playmaker in Kenneth Walker.
3:28Cooper Cup is 33 years old. If they're going to be sixth in the NFL in yards per play again, Shaheed is
3:36going to have to be a big part of it.
3:40And I also think there's some regression risk in Jackson Smith and Jigba's target share.
3:46Like the 33.9% target share JSN was at last year.
3:50It's just so wild. I'm not saying he's definitely not going to do that again, but it's just so wild.
3:57So at 137 overall, I do think there's some upside here on Rashid Shaheed.
4:02I would not want to be relying on him to be my third or even fourth best wide receiver on a full
4:11PPR site like DraftKings, but tagging him on as a fifth or sixth.
4:15Yeah, I think that's interesting, especially because the Sam Darnold backstacks are viable.
4:20You know, you could just go a skinny Shaheed Darnold, but you could also do Shaheed Darnold Cup or Shaheed Darnold AJ Barnard.
4:29And I think those are all viable. All right.
4:32Second riser, Tony Pollard up 2.8 spots to 73 and a half on underdog.
4:38So from a straight workload perspective, I still think Pollard is going too late in drafts.
4:44He's had three straight years of 240 plus carries.
4:47He's caught 33 plus balls in five straight years.
4:50Pollard is going to be the bell cow again this season for the Titans.
4:56Tajay Spears in a pass catching slash change of pace role.
5:00Nick Singleton, a return man, hoping to get his chance.
5:03You also get year two Cam Ward, Brian Dable, an upgrade over the disaster that was Brian Callahan slash Mike McCoy.
5:11So the projectable workload for Tony Pollard is nice in best ball on teams where I get behind at running back, Pollard, Ramondre, Jalen Warren, Rico.
5:21I think those are all solid targets. And then you never know.
5:26You know, I think generally people overrate their ability to predict who the high ceiling guys are.
5:32And I can use Tony Pollard as an example of that.
5:36Just last year, Titans are dead. Pollard seems dead.
5:39But when you're getting as much volume as he was getting, I mean, Pollard hit for 31 DraftKings points in week 14
5:48and 21 DraftKings points in week 15. So I'm not saying Pollard has zero upside on a single week basis.
5:55Anyone getting a ton of volume, you know, that's like the old Jacoby Myers argument.
6:01Anyone getting a ton of volume has upside on a single week basis, but it's just less likely Tony Pollard finds it
6:09consistently for some of the other guys in better macro situations.
6:13So Pollard is an example to me of a running back.
6:17I'm willing to take in best ball in the spots.
6:21I just noted we're on thinner at running back, but in redraft season long, it's highly unlikely Pollard will be a target for me.
6:30I just want to take bigger swings in redraft since the downside outcomes don't hurt me as much.
6:37And like the eight or nine, 10 point baseline doesn't help me as much.
6:42You know, I can grind the wire, I can trade, et cetera.
6:47Whereas in best ball, just not taking a zero, getting eight, nine, 10 points.
6:52That means a lot. Third riser Dallas Goddard up 1.4, 1.5 spots to 1.23 overall.
6:57I think people are making a few mistakes on Goddard, a player that we've been higher on than market in the ranks for the last few months.
7:08First mistake. I think people are just ignoring the splits with Dallas Goddard on the field and AJ Brown off the field.
7:16Absurd 2.85 yards per route run, 27% TPR targets per route run for Goddard with AJ Brown off.
7:23Both of those would have been second among tight ends last year.
7:27Second, I just think there's a bias against the Eagles offense based on what Kevin Petulo did to them last year.
7:35Just embarrassingly bad. And then also the AJ Brown dysfunction.
7:39It was just, everything was so messed up. And lastly, the mistake on Goddard, I suspect people might be misunderstanding the Eli Stowers situation.
7:48Yes, Stowers is an awesome pass catcher. Technically he's listed as a tight end.
7:53He is nowhere near ready to play in line at the NFL level.
7:58I think in year one, he's going to be a situational wide receiver more than anything else.
8:04Not really impacting Dallas Goddard's role. So yeah, I think the market is finally correcting some on Goddard.
8:11But for now, I do think like Devonta, Hurts, Goddard stacks are really solid at cost.
8:17You know, all those guys I think are solid at cost.
8:21And even just Hurts, Goddard is something that you can do really, really cheaply.
8:26Let's get to this week's Fallers. First one, Jalen McMillan, Bucs wide receiver, down 2.2 spots to 142 overall.
8:34Really interesting spot here. Obviously Mike Evans is gone.
8:37Massive opportunity vacated in terms of both raw targets and end zone targets.
8:42And then we also get Baker Mayfield, presumably back healthy.
8:46When the Bucs offense is working right, I think it's best with Baker in that point guard role, making plays, distributing.
8:53And I think that's the way new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson wants to play.
8:59Even when Zach Robinson was in charge of the Falcons and they had dusty wide receivers like Darnell Mooney and Ray Ray
9:07McLeod, Zach Robinson was still playing a ton of three wide receiver sets.
9:12So I know some people think McMillan is a slot player.
9:16I know some people like Ted Hurst, the rookie they took.
9:20I'm not buying too much on either of those takes.
9:24I do think Jalen McMillan will open the season in three wide receiver sets.
9:29And I think he'll sustain that. The Bucs have played him plenty out wide and he's shown flashes.
9:36Eight touchdowns as a rookie, breaks his neck sadly in a preseason game and misses most of the 2025 season, but did
9:44come back late, got 2.14 yards per route run on 83 routes.
9:49So Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan as the core three wide receiver set on a team with Bucky Irving and Kenny
9:57Gamewell as the running backs and Zach Robinson as the offensive coordinator.
10:01I think they should be pretty throw heavy and they should be in plenty of shootouts.
10:07So yes, I much prefer Jalen McMillans at 142 overall versus Ted Hurst in the last couple rounds.
10:14McMillan has already shown he can move the needle at the NFL level.
10:19Second faller, social media king, Brandon Ayuk down 9.8 spots to 204 overall.
10:24I mean, this Brandon Ayuk situation, it just, it goes beyond the normal wide receiver diva being adult kind of stuff.
10:32Like crazy rants on social media, going off on the 49ers front office who I'm sure has plenty of friends around the
10:40league, firing his agent, dumping money on the ground, you know, fighting or maybe fake fighting with Jaden Daniels.
10:47I don't know. Tons of other stuff. There's been speculation that the commanders would actually really be interested in Brandon Ayuk once
10:55the 49ers cut him, but the social media nonsense has turned them off.
11:00And I actually buy that speculation because Ayuk isn't a star anymore.
11:05In other words, Puka Nakua can do insane stuff, say insane stuff.
11:09Rams don't care because he's the stone nuts. But when you're Brandon Ayuk and you haven't been good since 2023 and you
11:17have major injury history, teams don't want to put up with the nonsense.
11:22If you read Leone's best ball manifesto, which I hope everyone has at this point, you understand how bad taking zeros is.
11:31I'm pretty risk averse when it comes to zeros.
11:34So I have very, very little Brandon Ayuk right now, and I don't plan to start taking it.
11:41The other factor from this, if the commanders are less likely to sign Brandon Ayuk, perhaps they're more likely to now to sign Stefan Diggs.
11:50That would be a pretty nice fit for Diggs.
11:53And we'd probably get into the 120s or so if he does end up signing with Washington.
12:00Third and final faller, Malik Neighbors down 1.2 spots to 35 overall on underdog.
12:05Speaking of taking zeros, the Malik Neighbors knee saga drags on with no real updates.
12:11I talked on Market Monday one or two months ago about how Neighbors was one of the most overpriced players in best
12:19ball when his ADP was mid-second round. I believe I said something like, I'll start considering Neighbors in the 40s.
12:26Well, here we are a couple of weeks before camp opens and Neighbors is down to 37.6 on DraftKings and sinking.
12:34So we know Neighbors tore his ACL September 28th of last year.
12:39Didn't have surgery until October 28th. Also had full meniscus repair.
12:43Was spotted with hands-free crutches in January. Reportedly dealt with knee stiffness throughout his recovery.
12:49Had a cleanup procedure a couple months ago. Goal is no longer to get Neighbors out there.
12:55Start up camp. Giants goal sounds like week one return.
12:59But in reality, it's a spot where the POP list is certainly possible keeping him out the first four games.
13:06So we're weighing a lot of risks here on Neighbors.
13:10In a worst case scenario, he continues to have knee issues.
13:14It's stiff. He has setbacks. Maybe he doesn't play at all in 2026 in a worst case scenario.
13:21Another bad scenario is he comes back and he's just not himself.
13:25The knee is limiting. We're trying to weigh that against the obvious smash where Neighbors is one of the best wide receivers
13:34in the NFL, most talented wide receivers in the NFL.
13:37And he has roughly zero target competition on the Giants.
13:41And he just goes nuts the second half of the year.
13:45It's a lot to weigh. I thought it was an easy decision when he was going in round two.
13:52Now when he goes middle round four, I don't want tons of Neighbors.
13:57But when he is there in that mid-40s range, I do start taking nibbles.
14:02I mean, we're like one positive report about his knee away that sends him literally to an ADP of like 18.
14:10And the difference at 40 is, 40 overall, we can survive if Neighbors isn't right until mid-season.
14:17You know, if we take him at 40, we have three stars already.
14:22We can get, you know, our team supercharged hopefully when Neighbors gets right.
14:26So this is just a classic, take the player at the best possible price we'll get all summer spot.
14:34And I'm trying to do that a little bit with Neighbors.
14:38All right. That is going to do it for another edition of Market Monday.
14:43Appreciate everyone for listening. Be sure to hit the subscribe button on our free YouTube page so we continue to bring you
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15:03Producer Luke. Producer Ryan. For Jerry, the most beautiful beast in the world.
15:08I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.
