Buy Low & Sell High Trade Targets Ahead of Week 7! (10/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Limited in practice but expected to play Thursday.

A.J. Brown came back with a 3 for 27 line in his first game, which may cause novice fantasy managers to undervalue him; however, this is a temporary dip and not reflective of his true value.

A.J. Brown is a buy-low candidate after shaking off rust in his first game back; the Patriots just lost Romeo Dobbs, and Brown should have better connection with Drake Maye going forward, though the window to buy low is closing as he had 10 targets in his first game back and will not be cheap after a big performance.

A.J. Brown faces the Chicago Bears, who have held Justin Jefferson, DeVante Smith, Tee Higgins, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson to 12.5 or fewer fantasy points; the Bears have the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL and like to blitz, while the Patriots offensive line is missing one starter for the year and two to three more for this game.

A.J. Brown is ranked at worst case as a number two fantasy receiver this week with a floor ranking of 20; given receiver injuries and four teams on bye, he's a must-start. The concern is consistency relative to his typical performance level, but the ranking reflects confidence in his floor.

Aaron Jones is preferred over a Vikings running back against the Colts in start/sit decisions, indicating confidence in his matchup and role.

Expected to return soon (possibly next week) and resume throwing to Bucky Irving; his return should restore Irving's target volume and fantasy production.

Baker Mayfield has not looked good and has faced a tough schedule in his first three games with Tampa Bay, playing against Minnesota and Cleveland. His performance against weaker defenses remains uncertain, making it difficult to assess the true ceiling of Zach Robinson's offensive vision.

There is concern about Breece Hall's role going forward; Braylon Allen has performed well, creating uncertainty about Hall's usage and value.

Bretton Strange is getting more involved in the Jaguars offense, part of the evolving receiving corps that includes Travis Hunter and the phase-out of Brian Thomas.

Brian Thomas has been phased out of the Jaguars offense this season, contributing to the overall uncertainty and lack of clear identity in Jacksonville's passing game.

Brian Thomas Jr. has been phased out of the Jaguars offense and is droppable; the only way to buy low on him is if he gets traded, as a landing spot change could provide a boost, but at this point he is not worth trading for unless you are trading backups for backups with the hope of a trade.

Bowers is averaging more fantasy points than Travis Kelce has ever averaged in a season; his tight end production is historically elite. The primary concern is offensive regression if the Raiders' offense declines or quarterback changes occur (e.g., to Mendoza), which would reduce him from a top-five overall player to merely a top-one tight end. In trade discussions, Bowers should command first-round caliber value or two second-round caliber players; trading him straight up for players like Amon Ross St. Brown would be underselling his current elite tier.

Brock Bowers had 110 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots despite their historically exceptional tight-end defense; he lines up out wide roughly 50% of the time, functioning more like a wide receiver than a traditional tight end, which may explain his success against New England's scheme.

Buy-low candidate with elite rushing metrics (second-highest yards after contact per rush behind Kenneth Walker and B. John Robinson) but targets have disappeared with Jalen Daniels at QB; expected to return to top-12 RB production in second half when Baker Mayfield returns; has favorable schedule ahead.

Bucky Irving is a buy-low candidate; if trading DeAndre Swift, the return should include Bucky Irving plus another starter, not just bench depth, indicating his value as a potential breakout option.

C.J. Stroud is ranked as a top-four quarterback this week against the Giants, placing him in the elite tier for weekly quarterback rankings.

Caleb Williams has the fourth-lowest average depth of target (ADOT) in football among qualified passers, indicating a short-passing game that affects tight-end target distribution; this represents a shift from Colston Loveland's early-season downfield target profile.

Chase Brown is rated high on the worry meter at this point in the season, indicating significant concern about his fantasy outlook going forward.

Christian Watson is the number three wide receiver in fantasy and top five per game; he is a high-ADOT receiver (13.6 yards, 15th in ADOT) who gets concentrated targets and great opportunities from Jordan Love's aggressive downfield passing attack, and should not be traded unless receiving absolute superstars in return.

Colston Loveland should be ranked around 16th rather than 23rd; he's shown much more upside than Hunter Henry in his last two to three games, though his floor is riskier. His early-season downfield target profile has shifted to easier targets as Caleb Williams' offense has adjusted, and while the Patriots defense has been strong against tight ends historically, Loveland's recent production trajectory suggests he's worth betting on for upside.

Colston Loveland faces the Patriots, who have historically been exceptional against tight ends; Brock Bowers (who lines up out wide 50% of the time) had 110 yards and a touchdown against them, but Michael Mayer had only two yards on one target in the same game, suggesting the matchup is not favorable for traditional tight ends. Loveland's early-season downfield target profile has shifted to easier targets, but the Patriots' strong tight-end defense and Caleb Williams' fourth-lowest ADOT in football present headwinds.

DeAndre Swift should be considered for selling; Montauk has been dealing with a toe injury and will eventually return as a factor, and there are reports that the Eagles are trying to manage Swift's touches at this point; Swift has been playing through minor injuries, making him a candidate to trade for significant value.

DeAndre Swift is getting significant receiving volume; he has seven screen pass catches in six games this season compared to 14 last year, and has had two straight games with four catches and a five-catch game in week two; he is very good out in space, which helps his fantasy value despite concerns about his overall role.

Dalton Kincaid had one catch for seven yards against the Patriots, further evidence of New England's strong defensive performance against tight ends.

Waiver wire bids across FFT open leagues ranged from $4 to $12, with typical acquisition cost around $8–$10; was rostered in many leagues, indicating moderate consensus interest.

Demario Douglas is characterized as a number three receiver in the Patriots passing game; not a boom-bust play but a consistent third option. He's involved in the offense but with limited upside relative to A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry.

DeMario Douglas is a close call versus Jaylen Boston, with the speaker slightly preferring Douglas while another Square. Get prefers Boston.

Denzel Boston is preferred over Demario Douglas in start/sit decisions by one Square. Get, though another Square. Get slightly prefers Douglas, indicating a close call with Boston having slight edge.

Metcalf leads all players in route participation rate, running essentially every route this year, but has been super inefficient with poor yards per route run, indicating high volume without corresponding production efficiency.

Leads all players in route participation rate, having run essentially every route this year; however, he has been super inefficient with poor yards per route run, indicating a disconnect between volume and production quality.

Drake London is a top-12 wide receiver and a buy-low candidate despite not having a touchdown this season; his lack of scoring makes him undervalued in trade markets. In a potential trade for Malik Neighbors, London could be packaged with a secondary receiver like Tucker Kraft to create additional value, making the deal more attractive than a straight swap.

Drake London has scored 12.5 or fewer fantasy points against the Chicago Bears despite having a chunk play downfield that was missed; the Bears have shut down elite receivers including Justin Jefferson, DeVante Smith, Tee Higgins, and Garrett Wilson.

Drake May is ranked as a top three quarterback for the week and is expected to continue playing well.

Drake May is ranked as a top-three quarterback this week; Jamie expects him to use his legs in this matchup against the Bears. He's projected to perform well despite Patriots receiving core being a work in progress with injuries at receiver.

Eagles signed running back Elijah Mitchell.

Garrett Wilson has scored 12.5 or fewer fantasy points against the Chicago Bears, part of a pattern where the Bears have shut down elite receivers including Justin Jefferson, DeVante Smith, Tee Higgins, and Drake London.

George Pickens should be sold high while he still has name value; he has underperformed his draft value and the best-case scenario is waiting for a boom game to sell after, similar to Jamison Williams' profile; there is no guarantee of a CeeDee Lamb injury to unlock his value.

Hunter Henry is playing well and ranked as a top-ten tight end this week by Jamie, with consensus ranking around ninth. He's expected to continue being involved in the Patriots passing game despite not getting a high volume of targets; the Bears defense is also banged up, creating opportunity.

Hunter Henry presents a boom-or-bust profile with minimal floor; he's scored a touchdown in two of his last three games with only four or five targets in that span, meaning if he scores he's top 10, but if he doesn't he's on the waiver wire. Running about two-thirds of routes most weeks with a target share above 17% only once, he's competing in a true two-tight-end set with Eli Reardon, splitting roughly half of eight tight-end targets.

Hunter Henry's ranking around ninth to twelfth is difficult to justify given his low target share and floor concerns; he's easier to start over than Tucker Kraft despite being more productive, and Colston Loveland and Kyle Pitts are both preferable starts despite smaller sample sizes because of their upside potential.

Likely is the number one tight end in fantasy and number two per game behind Brock Bowers, averaging 10 targets per game with five touchdowns in six games; his target per route rate and target share rival the best wide receivers in football, with he and Malik Neighbors getting essentially every target.

Likely's schedule is about to get much harder with Houston, then a bye, then Philadelphia, Washington, and Jacksonville; while there are some favorable matchups later (though San Francisco, Seattle, and Cleveland are difficult), the upcoming stretch represents a significant downgrade from his current favorable schedule.

There is a significant downgrade from Likely to Sam LaPorta in terms of points so far this season; Likely is expected to fall off from his current pace, with a realistic expectation that he loses at least 10% of his current fantasy points per game average, and possibly as much as 20%.

The Giants offense may operate similarly to last year's Cardinals, playing poorly in the first half but throwing 35 passes in the second half for garbage-time scoring; while the Giants have a winning record, they may not need many more wins to win the NFC East, and this game script could sustain Likely's production even with a harder schedule.

Jamar Chase has posted target share over 30% in all three of his healthy games, with target per route run rate of 30% or higher in three straight games; this encouraging target volume supports trading for him over Jefferson.

Has more upside than Bejal Tootin in a potential trade, though finding and trading for running backs is difficult and typically requires overpaying; fair trade if team needs running back help.

With Jalen Daniels at QB, Bucky Irving's targets have completely disappeared, suggesting poor passing game fit or usage; expected to improve when Baker Mayfield returns.

Jared Goff is ranked as a top-four quarterback this week; the speaker notes that Goff and Jordan Love are close enough in ranking that minor game line movements could shift their order, indicating high confidence in both.

Jalen Waddle is ranked below Demario Douglas in start/sit decisions this week, indicating a preference for Douglas over Waddle in weekly rankings.

Jonah Coleman will be the RB1 when he returns from injury, but this likely requires an injury to JK Dobbins to materialize; Coleman's path to lead-back role is contingent on Dobbins' health status.

Jordan Love had a huge game on Sunday with three drop touchdowns for 92 yards; he has now had 31 games in his career with 30 or more pass attempts, and in 20 of those 31 games (two-thirds of the time) he scores 20 or more fantasy points, demonstrating that increased volume leads to consistent elite production.

Jordan Love is ranked as a top-four quarterback this week at Detroit; the speaker notes that Love and Jared Goff are close enough in ranking that minor game line movements could shift their order.

Jordan Mason is potentially returning to action; his status affects the start/sit calculus for other running backs in the same week.

Consensus pick for most rest-of-season upside among available waiver options; however, likely unavailable this week due to injury and team bye week, making immediate production unlikely despite long-term appeal.

Green Bay's offensive coordinator said Josh Jacobs looks great, indicating he is trending in the right direction health-wise.

Josh Jacobs could face suspension if a video comes out; he is not necessarily in the clear regarding potential disciplinary action.

Josh Jacobs is a significant upgrade over the Packers' previous backfield options, but his return may not dramatically shift the offense; the Packers could see a slight increase in running game usage in scoring opportunities, but given Jordan Love's elite play and the offense's success, they are unlikely to revert to a run-heavy approach.

Josh Jacobs is preferred over Demario Douglas in start/sit decisions, though the speaker notes it's very close, indicating confidence in Jacobs' matchup.

Justin Jefferson has scored 12.5 or fewer fantasy points against the Chicago Bears, part of a pattern where the Bears have shut down elite receivers including DeVante Smith, Tee Higgins, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson.

In a trade discussion, Justin Jefferson is viewed as less desirable than Jamar Chase despite Jefferson's status, with the source preferring Chase in the deal.

Kyle Pitts is preferable to start over Hunter Henry despite a smaller sample size, with strong production in his last two games suggesting upside potential.

Lad McConkey is a buy-low candidate; he was dropped in a 12-team league and should be even cheaper now; he has top-30 receiver potential and top-15 upside, and in the one game where he was actually healthy, he performed well despite dealing with rib injury, concussion, and foot issues.

Lad McConkey is being misused by the Chargers; he ran only seven routes in his last game, played eight snaps, and was in the slot on only two of them; he had a 12.2-yard average route depth (near the league lead for receivers) but only one target, which was a short route; the Chargers should either use him more in the slot or get their offensive line healthy to allow pass plays to develop, as his current usage does not make sense.

Matthew Golden is a top-ten receiver averaging 16.5 PPR fantasy points per game, which would have ranked him as wide receiver 9 last year; he is a high-ADOT receiver (14.3 yards, 13th in ADOT) who leads the NFL in targeted air yards this season, and should not be traded one-for-one for Josh Jacobs or other upgrades.

Michael Mayer had only two yards on one target against the Patriots, serving as a better representation of how traditional tight ends fare against New England's defense compared to Brock Bowers, who lines up out wide frequently.

Michael Wilson has eight end zone targets but zero catches on those eight end zone targets, the second-most end zone targets in the league behind only Christian Watson; despite a 16-yard ADOT on these targets, the lack of conversion is concerning and makes him avoidable if Patrick Surtain is playing.

Giants released running back Najee Harris.

Waiver wire acquisition prices across eight FFT open leagues ranged from $3 to $35 out of $100 budget, with most bids clustering around $11–$12, though some leagues saw aggressive bidding up to $32; suggests moderate consensus value with variance in league spending.

Parker Washington has been a mainstay in the Jaguars offense this season, providing consistency amid the shifting receiving corps.

Philadelphia discarded every other running back on the roster, keeping only Pierce and Barkley, and signed Elijah Mitchell to the practice squad; this roster construction suggests Barkley is getting close to return from injury.

Saquon Barkley's status is uncertain heading into the week; practice participation on Tuesday and Thursday will be key indicators for start/sit decisions. If he misses practice, alternatives like Demario Douglas would be preferred.

Tee Higgins has scored 12.5 or fewer fantasy points against the Chicago Bears, part of a pattern where the Bears have shut down elite receivers including Justin Jefferson, DeVante Smith, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson.

Will not return when first eligible from IR; must miss at least one additional game beyond initial eligibility window; not expected to be ready immediately after that.

Out for the season.

Travis Hunter is now playing in the Jaguars offense, part of the shifting receiving corps alongside Brian Thomas being phased out and Bretton Strange getting more involved.

Tucker Kraft is mentioned as a potential throw-in piece in a trade package with Drake London for Malik Neighbors, suggesting he has secondary value in trade discussions but is not a primary focal point of the trade.

Tucker Kraft is easier to start over Hunter Henry despite being less productive, likely due to his team context and matchup advantages.

Waiver wire acquisition prices across eight FFT open leagues ranged from $5 to $20, with typical bids in the $5–$8 range; one league did not pick him up, suggesting inconsistent league-to-league demand.

Zay Flowers is positioned as a potential trade target if Lamar Jackson returns soon; if acquired alongside a tight end like Sam Laporta, the package would represent the type of elite two-player trade worth making for Brock Bowers. Flowers' historical performance with Jackson supports confidence in his production when the quarterback returns.