0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Grainger.com, or stop by.
0:04Grainger, for the ones who get it done. We'll be talking about some running backs, receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends that could make or break your drafts.
0:12So not necessarily like a bust list. These could be players that have upside that could win you your league on draft
0:19day or players that if you reach too far might really hurt you.
0:23So you can kind of go in either direction.
0:25You could, you know, not really polarizing players list, but just a wide range of outcomes list, I think is the right way to put it, Tom.
0:34Yeah, definitely. I mean, these are guys that you don't, like, I play a lot of best ball.
0:39I play a lot of higher stakes stuff. And they're guys that I don't want no exposure to, but every time that
0:46I'm taking them, I'm having to really be thoughtful about what I'm taking and what the process is behind it and what
0:52the outcomes that I'm hoping for are. And don't worry, everybody, despite the fact that this is a Worm and Tom show,
0:59we will not be just be talking to Ravens the whole time.
1:02In fact, there's not a single Raven on the list.
1:05Come back for that. Another time. Another time. All right, let's dive right in.
1:10We'll start with the running backs here. And first name on your list is Trevion Henderson.
1:14Why is he a make or break player for you?
1:17I don't think that there's any bigger make or break players inside the top sort of 60 picks at the minute.
1:24I mean, Trevion Henderson's going at 58th overall, which is 20 picks ahead of Ramondre Stevenson in the expert consensus rankings.
1:30And you look at what he did last year.
1:33Obviously, weeks one to eight were incredibly disappointing, 6.6 points per game.
1:36And then weeks nine to 18, it was 17.1 fantasy points per game.
1:40The weeks where Stevenson missed, of course, were just incredible for people like us who were very in on Trevion Henderson last year.
1:47It was like, OK, the breakout's happening. We've booked this so many times.
1:51The rookie running back who finally gets the opportunity explodes.
1:54330 yards, five touchdowns. RB3 over those three games.
1:57And then Ramondre comes back and it all starts to drop off.
2:00And I think that the market is definitely taking into account the upside that we saw in that period.
2:06They're very much betting on a second year progression, a second year breakout and growing on that.
2:11But I'm not sure that it's properly taken into account just how good Ramondre Stevenson was last year as well.
2:17You know, 6th in fantasy points over expected, 5th in explosive run rate.
2:21And he was better in yards after contact than Henderson.
2:24The big kind of pivot point on this decision for me is, can Henderson show that he's a good pass protector?
2:30Because you go back to college and he was good in pass protection, but he never really showed up last year.
2:37And I think if you want to build the positive case and say Trevion Henderson is going to break out, it's going
2:43to have to start with being able to hold his own on pass protection.
2:47But it's very easy to see either scenario play out this year.
2:51Do you tend to lean more towards the make or the break side on this one?
2:56I'm generally leaning towards that this one is going to break poorly.
2:59But I think that in Dynasty, he's somebody that I want to be acquiring because there's still so much potential with him.
3:06But I think that Ramondre is good enough for the kind of reasons I mentioned before and the way the team are
3:13talking about him, that it's probably still going to cap him.
3:16And the player I've been taking the most has been Ramondre out of the two of these.
3:21When you think about the situation that Trevion Henderson is in, do you feel like we are set to see a materially
3:28different usage for this backfield for any reason in terms of personnel or what you expect the play calling to look like
3:34in the second full season of Drake May? Anything like that?
3:37Or for those who do want to build the more optimistic case here, do you think that case just simply is it's year two?
3:45So we're just kind of expecting it to happen for no reason other than it is year two.
3:50Yeah, I think that's one which a lot of people are going to get onto.
3:55Yeah, Drake May could obviously take a step forward despite the fact that he was MVP runner up last year.
4:01But it's looking at how well that offense played through the regular season.
4:04Obviously, the playoffs is a different story and going, are we going to see them run the ball more?
4:10Last year, they ranked, I think it was eighth bottom in pass attempts per game.
4:15Are we going to see them actually pass the ball and have a better passing attack now that AJ Brown's there?
4:21So I'm not sure that I can buy into the idea that suddenly they're going to lean heavier into run.
4:27I think they're going to be put in more situations where they have to pass.
4:31Maybe that could benefit Trevion Henderson from a pass catching point of view.
4:35But overall, I'm a little bit skeptical about his ceiling this year.
4:39One guy that I kind of think of in a similar vein to Henderson this year is Beyshal Tootin.
4:45He's two spots behind him in the running back rankings in ECR.
4:48They are Henderson, RB23, Tootin, RB25. Do you have a preference between those two?
4:52Tootin's not somebody that's on the list for today, but I think similar in terms of year two, explosive.
4:58Let's see what the usage is. I mean, I think it feels a little more obvious with Achan gone that there could be a path here for Tootin.
5:07He is ranked further behind. He obviously was drafted a couple rounds later just a year ago.
5:12He came to the NFL. How do you compare Henderson to Tootin?
5:15I think it's a very similar bet, really. I mean, you look, these are two headed backfields.
5:20Yes, there's guys further down the depth chart, but nobody that we're talking about for fantasy football purposes.
5:26The big difference is just how enamored that the Jaguars seem to be with Tootin.
5:30They've constantly talked him up. They've really been very effusive of him at any point that they could be.
5:36Whereas Trevion Henderson, there haven't been many puff pieces.
5:39There haven't been many kind of beat reporters talking him up and saying that he's going to make a leap and steal this work from Ramondri.
5:46So it's an easier bet on Tootin, particularly with Chris Rodriguez being injured heading into training camp.
5:52Another player that I think is interesting to compare to Henderson is the next guy on your list.
5:57His former college teammate, Quinshawn Judkins, obviously played together at Ohio State.
6:01Coming off of a very strong start to his rookie season, the very, very tough leg injury to Judkins.
6:06Is the injury the biggest reason why you view him as a make-or-big player?
6:10Or is it also just question marks surrounding the offensive environment?
6:14And how many touchdowns are the Browns even going to score this year?
6:18Yeah, very much so. So, yeah, the fractured fibula isn't nothing.
6:21We've seen Tony Pollard, Mark Andrews come back from that and really struggle in their first few months back from it.
6:27And Judkins is a younger player. He's had plenty of time to recover from this.
6:32So perhaps that is something that maybe doesn't hamper him as much as the others.
6:36But it's everything. It's the fact that this Cleveland team has lost Myles Garrett and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz.
6:42I don't think that they're going to be able to keep the scores down as much as they did last year, where
6:49because the scores were close, they were able to run the ball a little bit more.
6:53They were able to lean into that. They were protecting Shadur Sanders at times.
6:58They were protecting Dylan Gabriel by running the ball.
7:00This year is the essential year where they have to see what they've got in both Deshaun Watson, what they've got in Deshaun and Shadur Sanders.
7:08How much do they pass the ball? Does that take it away from Judkins?
7:12We're also starting five new offensive linemen over in Cleveland.
7:15More than likely going to be better than what they put out last year, which was awful.
7:20But the last part of this is probably the most important point to me and why I think that this is going
7:27to be a break season for Judkins at this cost is that Dylan Sampson goes almost 100 spots behind him in ADP.
7:34And Dylan Sampson is far better in yards per outrun, 2.01 versus 1.17, 7.13 yards per target versus 5.0, 8.2 yards per reception versus 6.5.
7:41Now, that's not to say Judkins can't catch the ball, but Judkins isn't anywhere near as good as Dylan Sampson.
7:47And I think that Todd Munkin, the man who was heavily rotating Justice Hill for Derek Henry on anything remotely close to
7:54a passing snap, is going to be all over Dylan Sampson at any opportunity.
7:58I really liked Dylan Sampson last year. I still like him this year, especially with that price difference between the two.
8:04Yeah. So Judkins, RB21, Henderson, RB23, Tootin, RB25. Just some of the names we've talked about, obviously Tootin, not on your list, but somebody that I brought up.
8:12So they're all kind of like, does this feel when you sat down to come up with your names?
8:18Because you do have one more running back who is also in this range.
8:22He's RB24. Does this just feel like the range of make or break running backs?
8:27Or was it more coincidence that these are where a lot of these names happen to be sitting?
8:32Well, I mean, Judkins, the argument is very much that I like Dylan Sampson, Trevion Henderson.
8:37It's, you know, it's that ambiguous backfield. Like I'd like a little bit of Henderson, but probably more at Ramondre at the cheaper cost.
8:44The other guy we'll get to is more quintessential dead zone stuff.
8:48But these are dead zone running backs. Like if you were to draw it up in the dead zone changes, the type
8:54of player we've kind of all covered that a lot over the years.
8:58But these are the kind of tricky situations that you expect to find in the dead zone.
9:03And I look at running backs in this kind of range.
9:07I mean, give me Bucky Irving over Quinchon, Joe Kins.
9:10I've got more faith in their offense. Give me Jadarian Price.
9:13I feel like that's a better situation for him.
9:16Give me DeAndre Swift. I feel like that's a clearer bet to make as well.
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10:01All right, Tom, who's the last running back we're talking about here?
10:05Yeah, so this is David Montgomery, and it's probably going to upset people.
10:09But his ADP, his expert consensus ranking, it's getting pushed up.
10:12And it's getting to that point where I'm no longer comfortable with it.
10:16Like, go back to post-draft, post-free agency, when the Texans had gone out and traded for Montgomery and given up good draft capital.
10:23Montgomery was somebody I felt confident in, I felt really good about.
10:26He's just crept up and crept up as the offseason's gone on.
10:30And now it's to the point where I think that we're pushing it a little too high on a Texans team where,
10:36yes, they've invested in the offensive line, but I'm not sure it's suddenly going to gel straight away.
10:42Everything that pointed towards Montgomery being a better player than Woody Marks last year is stuff that you can start to unpick
10:48if the offensive situation with the Texans isn't good this year.
10:52I mean, Woody Marks struggled massively as a rookie because I don't think he was ever expected to be thrust in such a massive role.
10:59They expected to have Joe Mixon. They expected to have Nick Chubb.
11:03And then you've got a late-round guy who is known to be a pass catcher who is suddenly thrust into a situation
11:09where he has to take a lot of carries.
11:12Woody Marks, among running backs with 100-plus carries, finished 48th out of 49 in yards per carry, 48th for missed tackles force,
11:19some 37th in yards after contact per attempt. But he was an excellent pass catcher in college.
11:24He's always earned targets. And I think that he's going to eat into David Montgomery's ceiling there.
11:29We saw a report this week from Jane Slater saying that Woody Marks and David Montgomery are going to split start snaps
11:36in camp, but that's more about developing him. But I think it's clear that the Texans want to develop him.
11:42It's not like they saw what he did last year and have suddenly given up on it.
11:47And I just think at the cost where David Montgomery's going, you're kind of looking for like a 70-30 split ideally.
11:53And I think this ends up being a much closer kind of 60-40 split.
11:57And that could really hamper what you get from Montgomery at that price.
12:01Yeah, I'm kind of with you on this one.
12:04To me, like, I think the case, the pro case for Montgomery this season is he scores a lot of touchdowns.
12:10I think there's a world where that does happen, but it feels like him doing that is already baked into his price right now and his ranking.
12:18I mean, he's ranked as, like, the second pick of the sixth round.
12:22That just feels like you need him to now score double-digit touchdowns.
12:26Otherwise, that is a huge missed opportunity. Like, some of the other names around him, not just at running back, but, like,
12:32some of the receivers that are sandwiching him in the rankings, Christian Watson, DJ Moore, Roma, Doonze, there's real upside for all of those guys.
12:40You could make the case where, you know, Tootin is in this range as well.
12:44Tucker Craft, you know, if you think he comes back healthy and you want to get an elite tight end here, there's
12:51just so many names in this range that it's like, if Montgomery is not running hot on touchdowns, which, again, I do think is a distinct possibility.
12:59I am interested in this Texans offense. I'm not ready to write off C.J.
13:03Stroud after one bad, you know, playoff game, like, even as terrible as that game was the last time we saw him.
13:10And, I mean, the whole playoff run obviously was bad for Stroud, but, like, I still think there's a good quarterback in
13:16there if the offensive line could be at all better.
13:19And they, like you said, went out and traded real draft capital for Montgomery, so they want to use him.
13:25There was an obvious way to use him given who else was in the backfield and the nature of this team I
13:32think is, you know, up close to the goal line.
13:35So I definitely, like, I don't want to ignore that case, but you need it to happen where he's going.
13:41Yeah, definitely. It's just a little tricky, and I'm not disparaging, like, any of the good arguments for Montgomery.
13:47I think they're excellent, and that's why people have bought in, and that's why people have pushed him up.
13:52But there's enough there behind Woody Marks, particularly the fact that he can pass block, the fact that he can be a pass catcher.
14:00In full PPR settings, I think that he's got a path to have some decent flex viability in deeper leagues, and in
14:06best ball, he's a very easy click of a minute.
14:09Let's go to the wide receivers here. Who's the first guy you want to talk about?
14:14Well, let's go to Rashi Rice, the hire of the players who I've kind of got here, and going 25th overall in
14:21ECR, wide receiver 11, which I think the market is looking at the upside.
14:25And with Rashi Rice, we've always got to kind of talk of yin and yang, of the brilliant upside and the massive downside.
14:32And I'm not even going to talk about the off-the-field stuff because it's just, you know, we've all gone over it so often.
14:39It doesn't really feel like that's something that's hanging over him at the minute.
14:43But just purely on the field, the positive side, ranked 11th best in target share among wide receivers last year, 26%, 4th
14:49in targets per outrun, 10th in receiving yards per game, 3rd most designed plays, despite only playing eight games, he still had
14:56the 3rd most raw numbers in that category, highest percentage rate of plays for any wide receiver over 75 targets at 33.8%
15:03when it came to screens, design plays. But I think what the market is overlooking is the new offense.
15:08I think that we're building in too much of what Matt Nagy was doing, the screens, the design plays for Rashi Rice.
15:15Rashi Rice hasn't played with Eric Biennemi. Like, the last time Eric Biennemi was in Kansas, that was before they drafted Rashi Rice.
15:22Now, if you take the screens out from the last year, Rashi Rice ranks 21st in fantasy points per game, 31st in target share, yards per game.
15:30He's only played 12 games over the last two years.
15:33I'm betting on Xavier Worthy to have a bigger impact this year now that he's healthy.
15:38And I just think that at 25th overall, there are guys in this range like Devonta Smith, Chris Olave, Zay Flowers, who I'm more excited to draft.
15:46Yeah, I think if his cost stays wide receiver 11, I don't think I'm going to have Rice on any teams.
15:52And like you said, there's other names around him that I'm interested in.
15:56I mean, Chris Olave won me leagues at the end of last year with the way he finished.
16:01And now we get year two with Tyler Shuck.
16:04And of course, there's downside with Olave in terms of concussion history, but there's downside with Rice in terms of off-the-field stuff.
16:11And like you said, maybe it doesn't feel imminent in that regard, but like you never – when this stuff has happened
16:17multiple times with a player, you never know when something new could pop up, let alone that he has his own injury history.
16:24Not quite the same as Chris Olave's. And I think the offensive environment is a good point.
16:29I was actually – that was going to be my follow-up to you before you brought it up already is like what
16:36do you expect out of this offense? And not just losing some of what Nagy brought in terms of the screen game
16:42and everything like that, but just in terms of like you listen to some of these – a lot of NFL podcasts
16:49will do like head coach rankings over the summer.
16:52It's kind of that time of year for like who's your top 10 quarterbacks, top 10 head coaches, that sort of thing.
16:58And you start to feel like Andy Reid's falling a little bit in a lot of these.
17:03And I'm not saying that I – I'm not going to be the guy who's sitting here saying like Andy Reid is
17:10done and no longer innovative in anything. But like at a certain point, you do get older and it starts to go to the next generation.
17:18And the offense – it's hard to know how much of the offense in recent years has struggled because of a lack of great pass-catching weapons.
17:26Has it been just a little more inconsistency from Mahomes?
17:29Has it been Andy Reid being maybe less innovative than he once was?
17:32Has it been Travis Kelsey falling off a cliff and that – as he ages and that becomes a problem?
17:38Like I – it's hard to sort of put your finger on it, but all of it adds up to a questionable
17:45environment, at least more than you would think when you have Mahomes and Reid paired together.
17:50Yeah. I mean it's just – it's incredibly hard to stay at the very top of your game and to be the
17:56best version of yourself that you can be for so long.
18:00And that goes to both Andy Reid and it goes to Patrick Mahomes.
18:04Like last year, we saw that the Chiefs experienced that regression on the one-score games and that was what ultimately impacted them
18:10and led them to losing so many games. But also from an offensive standpoint, I think it's going to be better than under Matt Nagy.
18:18Matt Nagy had so much close to the line of scrimmage stuff.
18:21We saw yards per attempt, average depth of target, all sort of plummeted over the last couple of years.
18:27And I think that we get better with that.
18:30I'm not saying that I think that Xavier Worthy is going to be unlocked as some incredible deep threat.
18:35I don't think that's all his game is. And I think that Rashi Rice could be used further downfield too.
18:41But I think that this is going to be a slightly more potent offense.
18:46I just think that there's potential that with Rashi Rice, with Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelsey on his farewell tour, and with a
18:52running back in Kenneth Walker, the Super Bowl MVP, who they've just paid a lot of money, that it might just spread
18:59around a little bit and that Rashi Rice would have a hard time paying off.
19:03And much as we talked about those wide receivers, the area in the draft where Rashi Rice goes, there's also a lot
19:10of good running backs who I like. So I just, I find it really difficult to click his name.
19:16It's also not just the receivers that are near him that you would prefer, like other guys in that, you know, he's
19:22like, you know, again, overall 25th player. So the first pick of the third round, not only are there other players in
19:29the third round range that I like, I would rather wait and then take a receiver in the fourth round, like Ibuka
19:35or Lad McConkie who are ranked 39th overall and 40th overall.
19:39I'd much rather use that 25th overall pick if that's, you know, if we were going exactly based on the rankings on,
19:45like you said, a Kenneth Walker, for example, who's one spot higher in the overall rankings or Derek Henry or somebody else
19:52at a different position and then take the receiver who I think has just as much of an upside and maybe even
19:59a higher floor in some respects in a guy like Ibuka a little over a round later.
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24:13Additional terms apply? See website for details. So, we've got a couple more receivers here.
24:18Tom, who do you want to talk about next?
24:21Well, let's go Terro McMillan because he's kind of in that range that we just talked about with Ibuka, Ladd McConkie.
24:27And those are guys that I find myself drafting over him repeatedly.
24:31Like, obviously it was an incredible season for Terro McMillan last year.
24:34Finishes Offensive Rookie of the Year. But so much of his output and outlook depends massively on Bryce Young.
24:40And so much of what Bryce Young is doing is depending on the offensive line.
24:44Now, Iki Okonu, left tackle, is on the pup to start training camp.
24:48Right tackle, Taylor Motten, is also on the non-football injury list.
24:52So it's not exactly the best start. The Panthers ran pure last year.
24:55Like, there's no doubt in that. Like, the way they ended up finding their way into the playoffs, nobody expected it, nobody
25:02expected them to push the Rams as far as they did in the playoffs.
25:06But this year, the flip side of that is they now have to play the third toughest strength of schedule according to Sharp Football.
25:13Like, that's what happens when you finish first. Life gets harder.
25:17They're playing the AFC North when they play an AFC team, whereas last year they were playing the AFC South.
25:23You've got the Steelers' defense in there. We've got the Ravens' defense, which both of us are definitely expecting to bounce back
25:29from the miserable days of Zach Orr. And when you look at Tyrell Rower, like last year, he had such a massive domination of the Panthers receiving yards.
25:38He accounted for 43% of their air yards, which was second highest in the league, up there in team total yards as well.
25:45And I'm expecting Jalen Coker to take a step forward.
25:48Like, last year he got injured in training camp and then wasn't back till week seven, but then had a reasonable stretch.
25:54You've got Jatavian Sanders, who, yes, might be nothing, but could be something of a tight end position.
26:00They seem excited about the running back position there.
26:02So if all these things come together, could they be just a little bit less reliant on Tyrell Rower and McMillan?
26:09And the last one, it's just like Bryce Young.
26:11I mean, we're heading in... You want to talk about a make-or-break year.
26:15Bryce Young is definitely in a make-or-break year. Fourth worst in passing yards per game.
26:20Second worst by yards per pass attempt. And it's just been miserable output for a fantasy perspective over the course of his career.
26:27And not much better in real NFL terms. So yeah, I like Tyrell Rower.
26:31I really think that he's a fun player to watch.
26:34I'm just having a very hard time convincing myself that I would rather take him over Ladd McConkie, Garrett Wilson, and Mekarek Buka.
26:41What percentage chance do you think there is that Bryce Young takes a step forward this year?
26:46Not into like the elite tier or anything, but just that he becomes a quarterback that is more viable for supporting a high-level fantasy weapon.
26:53I don't think I'd put it above 25%. I feel like the kind of the best we saw of Bryce Young was
27:00probably last year when things were clicking for the team.
27:03They were pushing the ball a little at times.
27:06And, you know, they were winning. But I've never seen enough from him where I'm highly confident that he's going to turn
27:12into, I don't know, even say rookie season CJ Stroud.
27:15I don't think that we're going to get to that kind of level.
27:19And I think that he's very much staring down the barrel of his last season as a star.
27:25I feel like with Tedaroa McMillan, who's a player that I love just in a vacuum.
27:29I loved him coming out of college. I was very much with Debro, who obviously talked him up in a big way last year.
27:37During draft season. And I love the player. The offensive environment is clearly the question mark and what the usage will be.
27:43I do wonder if he maybe takes a step forward in terms of the touchdowns, even if some of the targets overall changes.
27:50He feels like he should be such a great weapon there.
27:53And through the first 10 weeks last season, he had two touchdowns.
27:57They're both in the same game. So he had nine of his first 10 weeks of his rookie season.
28:03He did not catch a touchdown. And then in the final seven weeks, he caught six.
28:07So I wonder if that is maybe a sign of what his usage will look like this upcoming season, where in those
28:14games where he was running hotter on touchdowns, you know, he had a few games where he had like two targets, four targets, four targets.
28:22He also had some where he had 10, 12 targets.
28:25So it was kind of up and down, but he was getting used more in the red zone.
28:30I wonder if that will carry over. And I also wonder if the fact that they're facing a tougher schedule maybe is to his benefit.
28:37And they'll have to throw more because they'll be behind more often.
28:41And they'll say, well, we just got to, you know, chuck it up to our best receiver, which he is, even if
28:48a guy like Coker takes a step forward. So I wonder if there is a path there.
28:53I feel like when I look at him and I wonder if you feel the same way, I'm like, well, he's ranked
28:59as a third round pick right now. I don't love that, but I really like it as a fourth round pick.
29:06That's sort of how I'm feeling. So I think it depends where I'm picking.
29:10Like if I'm, if I have an early pick and therefore have an early third pick, you know, pick in the third
29:16round, I don't see myself taking a lot of him.
29:19But if I can get him like at that three, four turn, and if he falls a couple of spots, then I
29:26feel a lot more excited about it. Do you feel similarly?
29:29Or are you just like, there's too many other players around here for me to want to take him?
29:35Yeah. Like if you're taking him as your wide receiver too, if you've started running back, running back, then I think that's fine.
29:42I think, you know, we can understand what we're getting from him.
29:46I think if you've started running back, running back, and then a tight end or a quarterback, it becomes much harder to
29:52be taking him as your wide receiver one. Or if I've taken a hero RB approach, just that one running back, and
29:59then gone three wide receivers, and I'm getting him as my wide receiver three or my flex, potentially, if you only start two wide receivers.
30:06I feel great about that. Because if I'm going to say that I expect more from Jalen Coker, then perhaps there is
30:13a world where the Panthers don't rank 25th in red zone trips like they did last year, and they have more pass
30:19attempts down there, which then gives McMillan more chance to score the touchdowns, like you mentioned.
30:24But I'm being very cautious which teams I take him on at the moment.
30:28We're looking a little further down the wide receiver rankings for the last guy we're talking about here.
30:34Tell me why Alec Pierce made this list for you.
30:37Yeah, so wide receiver 32 in ECR, 74th overall.
30:40Like, this isn't a bad range of a draft for a guy that we saw have real ceiling outcomes last year.
30:46And I think that plenty of people will talk themselves into it because of that.
30:50I just get a little bit nervous because the foot injury.
30:54We know in OTAs and minicamp, he talked about the fact that he might not be ready until September.
30:59And then the way his production came last year was just not in a way which we tend to see be sticky.
31:06So among wide receivers with 50 or more targets, Alec Pierce had the highest average depth of target of 19.4 yards.
31:12That's over a yard more than any other player.
31:15He led the position in yards per reception at 21, which was almost four yards more than the next receiver.
31:21And out of his 1,003 yards that he had last year, 477 of them came on passing plays 20 or more yards downfield.
31:28Daniel Jones was far better at hitting the deep ball last year than we've seen throughout his career.
31:33But also, when he was going deep, everything was telegraphed with Daniel Jones.
31:37Daniel Jones went to his first read on 100% of his attempts over 20 plus yards last year, which is a wild number.
31:44Like, if teams start to look at last year and go, okay, Daniel Jones, when he goes deep, he's going to his
31:51first read and starts to shadow more coverage over to Alec Pierce because of that, does that come down?
31:56Alec Pierce, is he going to be as good coming off his own injury?
32:00Daniel Jones coming off his Achilles injury? There's all these little bits where it just starts to be like, okay, could I
32:07see Alec Pierce getting 700 yards and becoming more useful near the line of scrimmage, perhaps finding some layups and making up for it in PPR setting?
32:15Maybe, but in half PPR where touchdowns and big yardage totals really help, I'm a little bit concerned.
32:21And I just don't love drafting injured players during training camp.
32:24Yeah. His finish last year was wide receiver 28.
32:27So since he's already ranked a couple of spots lower than that and you're including him on this list, is it fair
32:33to think that you expect a worse season? Yeah.
32:36You know, he ran so pure and generally I'm just living in the running backs in this section when you're kind of
32:42getting down to this area of the draft. These are the guys in the ambiguous backfields.
32:47These are the guys who are breakout potential. You know, I am building a lot of hero RB teams or a lot
32:54of zero RB teams and trying to go against the grain of these running back heavy drafts.
32:59And if you start running back heavy, then getting Alec Pierce in this range probably makes a lot of sense, but it's not the way that I'm building.
33:07Some of the receivers around here, Marvin Harrison Jr., wide receiver 30, Carnell Tate, wide receiver 31, Brian Thomas Jr., wide receiver 33.
33:14Some really interesting names there for different reasons across the three.
33:18Where does Pierce stack up against those names specifically for you?
33:21So I think I'd put him last simply because of the injury.
33:24It's like, you know, obviously Tate. It's a fair tiebreaker, I think.
33:28Yeah. Tate is a big unknown quantity for the NFL.
33:31Cam Ward obviously needs to take a massive jump.
33:34The Titans, there's a lot that needs to shake right for them.
33:37But injured players, more often than not, it feels like that's a very shaky bet to make.
33:42And depending on the size of your roster, depending on the size of, you know, how many wide receivers you're looking to
33:49start, I just feel like I can make bets that I'm happier with elsewhere.
33:53And if the volatility of those deep passes does start to affect him, then it's going to be really difficult targeting because
34:00every week you could be talking yourself into, okay, well, Alec Pierce had three deep targets last week.
34:05He didn't catch him. But last year, he was excellent on these.
34:09Last year, he was so good. Variance is going to come back to him.
34:13And that's not a game I want to play.
34:16When you're on the clock, the toughest picks are often the ones with both massive upside and real downside.
34:21That's where the draft assistant can help sync your league and get real-time pick-by-pick advice, compare the best players available, track your
34:28roster build, and decide whether your team can afford to take the swing.
34:32Go to fantasypros.com slash assistant or download the Fantasy Pros app, use the draft assistant, and make smarter decisions where every pick matters.
34:39All right, we've got one quarterback and one tight end here to wrap things up.
34:43Let's start with the quarterback. Who will make or break your draft at this position?
34:48It's Jalen Hurts. And Jalen Hurts has been somebody that I've been fairly aggressive on this year.
34:53Like, nobody seems excited for Jalen Hurts. And perhaps this one is leaning a little more towards 1QB leagues than in Superflex,
35:00whereas in Superflex, he's a very easy click because the floor is less noteworthy sometimes.
35:04Like, lots of people are putting up maybe 40 combined points from their quarterbacks, and maybe you could offset that with your QB too.
35:11But in 1QB leagues, I think that Jalen Hurts still has the potential to be a top-three quarterback.
35:17But if things go wrong for him, if this new offense doesn't click, then he has the potential to be fringe quarterback
35:23one territory, so quarterback 10, quarterback 11. You go back to what we've seen from Jalen Hurts over the last few years.
35:30Like, last year, the rush attempts were down, but he was still second among all quarterbacks with 105.
35:35He just wasn't really breaking anything great. He was second in QB rush attempts with – sorry, QB rush touchdowns with eight.
35:42So normally, like most quarterbacks, we'd be very happy with eight rushing touchdowns.
35:46Like, if Lamar Jackson suddenly had eight rushing touchdowns in a season, that would buoy his numbers to an incredible number.
35:52But because Jalen Hurts wasn't getting it done through the air last year, hit career lows in various passing stats, it did make it harder.
36:00The Eagles averaged just 22 points per game last year, which ranked 19th in the NFL.
36:04But we know how bad the offense was. Like, the offense was awful on third down attempts.
36:09They ranked 24th in the league. That's what gets your offensive coordinator sacked or demoted, whatever they did with him.
36:15And you bring in a new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion, who they clearly seem to want to change how Jalen Hurts is throwing the ball at.
36:24So much of Jalen Hurts, it's been dink and dunk, or it's been real deep threats.
36:28And Jake Seeley has made some great points on our channel over the last few months, talking about something which people still
36:35seem to be missing, that like, Jalen Hurts can throw the ball at the middle.
36:39He just doesn't do it a lot. Like, 85th out of 88 eligible quarterbacks in percentage of throws between the numbers below
36:4615 air yards over the last five years. But when he does pass there, he's at the fourth lowest off-target rate on
36:53these passes, the highest touchdown per attempt rating, eighth in completion rate.
36:56So now you've got Makai Lemon. You've got Eli Stowers.
36:59And I don't think people are baking in enough that Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers can really work in these areas.
37:06They can really help this offense be more efficient to keep it moving, rather than relying on the big plays, rather than
37:12relying on, you know, chucking it deep to A.J.
37:15Brown. If they can feed across the middle of the field, get a bit more yards after the catch.
37:21Like last year, they generated a career-low 4.3 yards after the catch per completion.
37:25And I've thoroughly put that on the offensive coordinator.
37:27This year, I think that's going to spike. And I think that's going to get them to the red zone more often,
37:34where perhaps we see the return of a tush-push with a healthy offensive line.
37:38I feel like the most common piece of advice you hear this time of year, I feel like you hear it a
37:45lot of years, but I've heard it even more this year from people in the industry, is I want to be drafting
37:51a quarterback in Tier 1, or I want to be waiting because it's such a deep position.
37:57Hurts is in Tier 2, at least in the consensus rankings.
38:00He's QB 6. So it's very much in the range of quarterbacks that the general advice, not getting into specific names, but
38:06the 30,000-foot view advice is avoid guys in this range.
38:09Do you feel similar to that, where you would rather get Allen, Lamar, May, or wait until the end of it, be
38:16the last guy to take your starting quarterback and get a Dak Prescott, a Jackson Dart, a Brock Purdy, or take a something like a Kyler, Jordan Love?
38:24There's just so many names late. Or are you more willing to play in the sandbox of the other guys in Tier 2, just to read it?
38:33Again, this is based on ECR. Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence.
38:37There's a lot of players that I really like there, and I think could have really good seasons, but they're in that
38:44range that typically is supposed to, quote-unquote, be avoided.
38:47I'm happy living in that range, and I think that that range has plenty of upside.
38:51I mean, you know, Trevor Lawrence, we just saw, have career-high rushing touchdowns.
38:55Jaden Daniels, we know what he can do when he's healthy.
38:59Like, there is so much upside. Caleb Williams, if he can get more accurate and get the ball out slightly quicker, whatever,
39:05then the upside is obviously there for somebody we were incredibly excited for coming into the league.
39:10As for Jalen Hurts, I've done a lot of drafts this offseason, and I've seen him drop down as far as QB9.
39:17I've seen him drop 15 spots past ADP, because people just are going by the idea of, I'm just going to wait, quarterback feels deep.
39:24And because that's happening, it's such an easier click for me.
39:28I think that you rarely, if ever, have to reach to get Jalen Hurts, unless you're drafting with somebody you know is
39:34an Eagles fan who feels particularly good about him.
39:37But I think that Jalen Hurts is underpriced, and I think he's very easy to get.
39:42And if you don't get him, that range also feels fine.
39:45But yeah, I'm very much fine with that whole tier.
39:48Yeah, you know, it's funny. I historically would say that, philosophically speaking, I am with the early quarterback or late.
39:54And this year feels like, you know, I even agree with that in a vacuum, because the top is so strong, and the depth is so strong.
40:02But when I just read those names to you, I hadn't actually sat down and reminded myself, like, who is actually in tier two?
40:09Literally, quarterbacks five through 10, Daniels Hurts, Caleb, Herbert, Lawrence, and then Dak Prescott's right at the top of tier three in our consensus rankings.
40:17I'm like, I am really in on that group of quarterbacks, and they are some of my favorite guys this year at cost.
40:24And, you know, Hurts is, he's the QB6. It's like a late fifth round pick in the overall ranking.
40:29So these other guys like Caleb, Herbert, Lawrence, are even deeper.
40:33I think I'm very willing to play in the sandbox right there along with you.
40:37Like, you know, Caleb, year two with Ben Johnson, Herbert with Mike McDaniel, Lawrence, the way he finished last year, let alone,
40:44obviously, the guy you brought up in Hurts, who's, I think you're right, people are, nobody is going to bid you up on Jalen Hurts in your draft.
40:52Yeah. And I think even if you are concerned about Jalen Hurts, and you want to take a late round flyer to
40:59just give yourself a little bit of insurance, it's not something I tend to do, but the guys who are going undrafted
41:05in standard 12-team, one-quarterback leagues, guys like Jared Goff, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, these are the guys who are going to be
41:12on waivers, but you could take one of those with your last round pick and sit back and go, okay, if Jalen
41:19Hurts in this offense stinks in week one, week two, I have my guy who is going to be an every week
41:25starter for the rest of the season, who will be probably pretty decent.
41:29Yeah. Yeah. I haven't really gone into this draft season anticipating targeting Hurts too much.
41:34You're kind of talking me into not really having to target him, but being happy if he kind of, you know, gets to a place I'm comfortable with.
41:42I mean, I just think like Jalen Hurts, how many quarterbacks after him are truly in the mix to be VQB one overall?
41:49Like if we got a 14 touchdown rushing season from Jalen Hurts, which isn't out of the question, if the passing offense
41:56is a little more impressive and we get to 30 touchdowns and, you know, a reasonable amount, say 600 rushing yards above
42:02or above, then I think that Jalen Hurts could easily be in like top two, top three territory pushing for QB one.
42:09And I don't think there's many players after him with that kind of ceiling.
42:13Yeah. You know, you look like some would make the case, not me, but some would make the case for Jackson Dart.
42:20I'm too scared off by, you know, just the way he plays and what that offense is going to look like in
42:26general, like that he would not be my choice.
42:29But I know there are some who are really excited about his upside, given the rushing, you know, I think you could
42:35like make, there's always somebody like a past first quarterback who just runs really hot on passing touchdowns every year.
42:41You know, maybe that's Jordan Love this year or like, I don't know, somebody later who then makes a push for like a QB one finish.
42:49But yeah, it's really like the guys at the top, you know, Alan Lamar, Drake May for the obvious reasons.
42:55And then it's like Hurts, you know, maybe Herbert, he's been QB two before and now he gets a new offense.
43:02But you're right, it's not a very long list.
43:04It's a lot of more safety of Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Bo Nix in John Payton's offense more so than a guy
43:11that you really could see being QB. Like last year, I think there was a lot of people, myself included, saying, you know, Drake May is going late.
43:19He might not be great, but there's a world where he's competing for a QB one season.
43:24I don't see as like Malik Willis, if you just really think the rushing is going to be there, but like, who is he throwing to?
43:32It gets harder to squint and see that. Yeah, definitely.
43:35And it's also like offensive efficiency and buying into the overall environment, isn't it?
43:39And like the Eagles, when the offensive line is healthy enough to believe in that, there's enough reason.
43:45We've seen it before from the Eagles, where it's like, you know, the Giants, there's not much about that situation I'm willing to buy into at the minute.
43:53Yeah. Let's wrap up with the tight end that you want to talk about here.
43:58Sam Laporta. Why is he make or break? Yeah, I mean, 84th overall, tight end A, I would take him easily over Kyle Pitts and Harold Fannin.
44:06I think that we're going to see his ranking jump significantly over the next week or two.
44:11He's been completely cleared from injury ahead of camp.
44:14He had a herniated disc last year. And I think that as people realize that he's not going to miss any of
44:20training camp, we're going to see people start to push him up.
44:24Again, going back to what we're looking for from Jalen Hurts at the onesie position, I'm hunting for a tight end who
44:30give me tight end one overall outcomes. And I think that Laporta is potentially the lowest possible tight end who can do that.
44:37Obviously, the flip side of this is if Jameson Williams ever eventually breaks out properly, then it might be a poor pick.
44:44But something our guys on the Betting Pros podcast have talked about this week, the Lions have the easiest strength of schedule according to Sharp Football.
44:52Now you've got Drew Petsing coming in as the offensive coordinator.
44:55He came from Arizona. He was OC for the last two years where Trey McBride had 147 targets and 169 in those years.
45:02Sam Laporta, 20 touchdowns in 42 regular season games.
45:05Multiple games of 90 plus yards last year. There just aren't many tight ends who can give you that, like give you
45:11the yardage and give you the touchdown total. Obviously missed some time last year, but he had the third best catch rate,
45:18sixth in yards per game, fourth in yards per route run, third in yards per target and sixth in yards per reception.
45:24This Lions offense just does better when Sam Laporta's on the field.
45:28They scored over the course of his career with the Lions.
45:31They've scored 31.4 points with him, 24.8 without him.
45:34I just can't find a downside for Sam Laporta outside of perhaps Jameson Williams can take away to bowl more, but I really buy into him.
45:42So you said you'd easily take him over Pitts and Fannin.
45:45That's tight end seven and tight end six, respectively.
45:48Laporta's tight end eight. What about the other guy in that tier, Tucker Craft, who was awesome last year, but coming off of his own season ending injury?
45:56Yeah, I mean, anybody who's listened to the Best Ball Show with myself and Andrew, like last year, we were both heavily
46:03in on Tucker Craft and taking him every single draft pretty much.
46:06I'm still massively in on Tucker Craft. I think that Tucker Craft, again, is one of those guys who has the potential
46:13to leap up and give you tight end one overall outcomes.
46:16I don't think I can take Sam Laporta ahead of Tucker Craft, but if Tucker Craft misses a bunch of training camp,
46:23which isn't necessarily something we're expecting at this point, it sounds like he's well on his way to full health as well,
46:29then maybe I could see myself start to take a little Laporta over him.
46:34But look, the Lions, you would talk better not, the Lions are projected to have the most passing yards and the most
46:40passing touchdowns of any team in the league, but nobody seems to be really excited to draft anyone apart from Amon Ross, St.
46:47Brown, and Jameer Gibbs. So Laporta, like I said, ranked eighth.
46:50Sounds like you maybe have him up about sixth if he's not getting past Craft for you.
46:56Do you feel like, similar question to quarterback, you know, would you rather be taking, you know, a Brock Bowers or a
47:02Colston Loveland early and then if you don't get them waiting for like, you know, Mark Andrews at tight end 15, Chigakonkwo
47:09at tight end 19, would you rather take that approach or would you rather get one of these tier two guys?
47:15You obviously like Laporta. Do you like playing in this sandbox for the tight ends similar to the quarterbacks?
47:21Yeah, I mean, my guys so far this season, I was looking through my most drafted guys last night and it's Colston
47:27Loveland, it's Tucker Craft, and it's Sam Laporte, they're the three guys so I typically, I am taking somebody relatively early.
47:34I like Isaiah Likely if I miss out on those guys because I think, you know, I just said I don't want
47:40to buy into a lot in New York but I'm happy to buy into Isaiah Likely because I think he's going to
47:47start the season strong, he has a chance to score a few touchdowns nice and early in games which are going to
47:53be tricky for them if they can find themselves in pass-heavy environments then perhaps he starts the season well.
47:59So, Likely somebody I've been clicking a lot, obviously as a Ravens fan was a bit of ex-Ravens bias there.
48:05I don't mind Mark Andrews, Pat's made some great points about how prime he could be for a bounce back and really
48:12nobody else in Baltimore outside of Zay Flowers is being projected for very much.
48:16Andrews has always been the red zone option and Chigakonkwo, obviously lots of fun but yeah, I'm kind of, I'm very much
48:22happy if I can leave one of Loveland's, Tucker Craft, or Sam Laporta in every draft.
48:27I'm more in on Andrews than likely when thinking about that former Ravens tight end room.
48:32I think another year removed from his, you know, broken leg, we have just so much history of his chemistry with Lamar Jackson.
48:39I think in a new offense, you know, when stuff starts to break down as the offense is sort of working through
48:46the rust, it will be very natural for Lamar to during scramble drills look for Mark Andrews and say this has been my guy my entire career.
48:54I also just expect a bounce back season from like a healthy Lamar and everything so I think the touchdown opportunities will
49:00be there for Andrews and I like, you know, Elijah Surratt, I like some of the tight ends they drafted but there's not a lot of certainty here.
49:09It's Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews and then maybe Rashad Bateman finally puts it all together so I think in any given
49:15drive from the Ravens where Derek Henry is not the guy that's getting a touchdown, Mark Andrews is probably the best bet
49:22of everybody else on the team so if you think it's going to be a successful offensive season for this team I
49:28think there's going to be a lot of touchdowns thrown Andrews' way I don't know if the high yardage total will be
49:35there but I love him as a guy who's going outside the top 12 if you miss out on the Loveland's and crafts of the world.
49:43Yeah, I mean look we started with saying we weren't going to talk any Ravens but I'm happy to say we're at
49:49the end of this like you go back Lamar was bad in the red zone last year but he had a 62%
49:56pressure rate in the red zone which was the highest he had the highest I think it was the second highest sack
50:03rate in the red zone because the offensive line just wasn't good down there and there was also a high dropped pass
50:09rate in the red zone if that variance bounces back to what we've seen previously and I always feel like if you
50:16give Lamar an average offensive line then you get MVP level play out of him if you give him a terrible interior
50:22offensive line like last year that's when things fall apart so yeah it's easy to buy back in on Mark Andrews yeah
50:29for sure so we had to sneak that in of course even though the segment about Sam Laporta before we get out
50:36of here I need just kind of final thoughts on how you approach like what is your overall philosophy this will be
50:42my last question on targeting players who you view through the lens of these are make or break guys do you find
50:49yourself generally leaning more towards I'm going just for pure upside do you find yourself leaning towards different points of the draft
50:55I want to have some certainty here you know injuries injuries and down seasons will find me naturally so let me get
51:02some you know things that I can sort of rely on and have a little confidence they're going to have at least
51:09have a high floor do you like to approach guys that you do see as make or break what do you kind
51:15of think about targeting just these guys in general not just any specific name yeah in general I'm looking at situations so
51:22like the Jokings one like if there's a situation like that where I'm fading somebody because I think the backup is undervalued
51:28Dylan Samson's not going in most 12 team drafts but I'm going to pull him up I'm going to make sure that
51:35I get him I'm going to make sure he's drafted because I don't want to be fighting it out on waivers I
51:42think I like to stand on convictions for those late round players that aren't getting drafted to make sure I get them
51:48and I have them on my roster and if you know what they don't work out then you can roster churn them
51:55pretty quickly otherwise it's kind of understanding your scoring setting how many roster spots you've got how the league format is like
52:01in best ball it's always a big adjustment for me because I'll draft hundreds of best ball teams in the offseason when
52:08he gets to redraft going right now is the time where I need to be mindful of what the floor is on
52:15this team so if I've got a really high floor like if I started this draft say with Amon-Ra St.
52:21Brown Brown and then you're getting like I don't know Drake London and Zay Flowers in my first three picks then I've
52:27gone running back heavy for the rest of the draft is that a situation where Alec Pierce suddenly makes sense to me
52:34yeah I don't mind taking Alec Pearce because I don't need him early on in the season if he starts hitting then
52:40maybe one of these other guys gets injured or maybe I can make a trade because people will start remembering what he
52:47did last year so it's always just kind of like looking at the balance of the roster looking at the makeup of
52:54players and saying what what does it take for these guys to hit and what can I do if it does happen
53:00all right we'll go ahead and say goodbye from there thanks everybody for checking out this episode on make or break players
53:07in your 2026 drafts for Tom I'm Ryan warmly thanks for tuning in we'll see you again next time thanks for listening
53:13to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast if you love the show the best free way to support us is by leaving
53:20a positive review on apple podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on spotify follow us on x instagram and tiktok at fantasy
53:27pros and subscribe to our youtube channel at youtube.com slash fantasy pros I'm u.s transportation secretary sean duffy the sound of a
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54:39enter the super troopers to the rescue vermont's finest and most shockingly offensive mustachioed highway patrol officers return to the big screen
54:46in super troopers three with more pullover pranks and more over-the-top shenanigans than ever in this latest installment of the cult comedy
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