12 POLARIZING Fantasy Football Picks | Experts Draft or Pass on Volatile Players (Ep. 2067)

The source identifies Strange as one of his sleeper tight ends after Strange signed a three-year extension with the Jaguars. The source likes him as a value pick at the position.

The source ranks Thomas at 106 vs. ECR 85, citing Trevor Lawrence as the core problem. Thomas averaged 87 receiving yards per game with Mac Jones but only 56 with Lawrence across a 25-game sample. The source loves the talent from his rookie year but notes it was a small sample size with Mac Jones; the larger 25-game body of work has been more disappointing than good. Target distribution depth in Jacksonville's offense is crowded: Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange (three-year extension), and a second-round tight-end draft pick will all compete for targets. Thomas may be deployed primarily as a downfield threat, which provides spike weeks but lacks consistency and weekly target leadership. The source plans to roster him in exactly one redraft league as a hedge in case he reverts to rookie form, but fears he becomes a zombie X receiver who runs routes without seeing target volume. Chemistry with Lawrence is growing from zero to low, which doesn't move the fantasy needle—it needs to reach medium to high for excitement.

Bucky Irving is mentioned as a running back who took touches from Rashad White last year and is expected to remain part of a committee backfield with White, Ja'Cory Kroski-Meritt, Katron Allen, and possibly Jerome Ford in the Commanders offense.

Chase Brown finished RB7 in points per game from week 7 onward last season and fifth in expected fantasy points per game overall; he averaged nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back seasons and was RB3 from weeks 13–17 over 20 half-PPR points per game. In a Joe Burrow-led offense with bell-cow usage and minimal competition (Samaj Perine was a one-B back), Brown is positioned to smash in 2026 on his final rookie contract year.

If healthy all season, McCaffrey projects for 2,000 yards from scrimmage and double-digit touchdowns; he has delivered 16 or 17 games in three of the last four years, and even at 12–14 games played, his per-game production is elite enough to justify a mid-first-round pick. The source emphasizes maximizing upside over minimizing downside and notes that scared money doesn't make money in fantasy football.

The source emphasizes that Drake London is clearly the alpha in the Falcons passing game when healthy. The offense will funnel through London in the passing game, and he is so good that even with a new quarterback situation (Tua or Michael Penix), London remains the primary target.

Isaiah Likely is gone from the Ravens, which opens up tight end target share for Mark Andrews in the Baltimore offense.

Erickson ranks Williams at 70 vs. ECR 50, citing a 38% bust rate—highest among top-20 WRs last year per FantasyPros Boom/Bust Report. Bust rate correlated directly to games when Sam LaPorta was active vs. inactive. Dan Campbell's departure as play-caller (now Drew Petzing as OC) removes the context that improved Williams' usage mid-season. Erickson notes Williams was outside top-50 PPG to start 2024 and was cut from many leagues despite early draft capital, making him frustrating to own.

Andrew Erickson ranks Waddle at 43 vs. ECR 48, arguing the Denver trade represents a significant upgrade. Waddle will be top-two in volume alongside Cortland Sutton; Troy Franklin will fade into background. Erickson emphasizes Waddle's 13th-ranked yards per route run last year despite Miami's run-heavy offense and notes he averaged 82 yards in five of 11 games when Tyreek Hill was out, suggesting he thrives when given opportunity. Denver threw 100 more passes than Miami last year and ranked eighth in pass rate overall and seventh in pass rate over expectation, providing volume relief. Erickson projects Waddle as WR2 going with WR1 upside.

The source presents conflicting takes on Pitts. While acknowledging he was tight end two in half-point PPR scoring last year with 88 catches, 928 yards, and five touchdowns, and that new Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski has historically been tight-end friendly (his offenses averaged 167 tight end targets over the last three years), the source is ultimately not excited about Pitts and doesn't view him as part of his tight end strategy. Pitts is going in the middle tier of tight ends (7-11 range), which historically has a high bust rate. The core concern: when Drake London is healthy, London is clearly the alpha in the passing game, not Pitts. Last two seasons, Pitts averaged 8.5 PPR points per game, which would rank outside the top 20 tight ends. He was better with Kirk Cousins than Michael Penix. The source worries about the ceiling with Tua or Michael Penix as quarterback and notes the Falcons could be drafting a quarterback in 2027, suggesting potential quarterback instability. At age 25, only Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten had more catches through their age 25 seasons, but the source will only consider Pitts if he falls into late-round tight end territory.

Williams' points per game fell from 2024 to last season despite improved efficiency; Blake Corum's addition threatens his goal-line role (Williams had only 54% of goal-line carries, 20th among RBs). He has not finished top-five in full fantasy standings in three seasons as the Rams' bell cow and scored his fewest rushing touchdowns last year. The Rams are dead last in running-back target share over the last two seasons, leaving no receiving workload to fall back on. At RB12–13 ADP, the ceiling is limited (likely RB10) with downside risk if Corum takes more carries.

The source presents conflicting takes on Andrews. While initially arguing he is a worthwhile target if you punt tight end early—noting that in Lamar Jackson's seven full seasons as a starter, Ravens tight ends have ranked in percentage of team targets as follows: first, fifth, first, first, tenth, fourth, and fourth, showing Lamar enjoys throwing to tight ends, and that Isaiah Likely is gone so Andrews figures to get a high percentage of Ravens tight end targets—the source ultimately believes Andrews is cooked. Andrews had career lows in receiving yardage, yards per catch, and yards per target last year. More concerning, out of 49 qualifying tight ends, Andrews was dead last in yards after the catch per reception, a metric that has nothing to do with quarterback play and reflects what he does after catching the ball. The source notes that Zach Ertz had more yards after the catch than Andrews despite being a player who can't force a broken tackle. The source prefers other late-round tight ends like Tucker Craft and Chico Conkwo, who offer yards after the catch. Andrews has been out of juice for the last couple of seasons.

Rice has missed 22 regular-season games in the last two years due to suspension and injury; at ECR 27 overall, there is no discount this year. Xavier Worthy could be a bigger threat to his role after a strong second-half rookie year, and the Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker to run the ball more, potentially reducing Rice's role in the passing game. Safer options exist at the round-two/three turn.

Pat Fitzmaurice ranks Harvey at 133 vs. ECR 82, arguing he failed the audition last year after J.K. Dobbins' injury. Harvey averaged 3.3 yards per carry after Dobbins went down, running behind a good offensive line. With Dobbins returning and Jonah Coleman drafted in round four as a capable pass-catcher and pass-blocker, Fitzmaurice sees limited role for Harvey. Sean Payton's history as a running-back-by-committee coach further limits Harvey's ceiling. Fitzmaurice has no Harvey in redraft at round-seven pricing.