0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. FDA approved eligibility required and determined by a licensed provider.
0:05Individual results may vary. See website for details. It's the tailgate.
0:08Game on. I am Chris Welsh. That is Andrew Erickson.
0:11That is Derek Brown. We're here to talk about some football with you.
0:15How fragile are some of these big Super Bowl contenders?
0:18Great question, Welsh. We're gonna talk about that. Biggest controversial takes?
0:22We got it. But gentlemen, how is it having to deal with me?
0:26You haven't had to deal with me at all over here on the tailgate whatsoever.
0:30So, Derek Brown, I'm gonna let you go first.
0:33What nice and kind thing would you like to start with about me?
0:37Uh, that if I'm not the biggest CMC stan over the last two years, then you're definitely higher than me?
0:43Okay, that's not a nice thing. Erickson, let's have you have a try.
0:47Let's hear you say something really, really nice and fun about me.
0:50You put me on the freaking spot. I don't know.
0:53Nope. You have a beautiful face, Welsh. Thank you.
0:56That's a compliment. Me being a higher CMC guy is not a compliment.
1:00Erickson, your turn to say something great about me.
1:03Please move on. Welsh, you in the Discord community pulled back the curtain on what the movie Face Off is, and it totally changed my life.
1:10I'm watching that movie, turning it into now a movie club that I do with my friends.
1:15Seriously, he's going down an entire alleyway of 90s movies now.
1:19Every single week, I've watched so many Nicolas Cage movies now over the past six months, and it's all thanks to you, buddy.
1:26All right. Well, I don't think anyone has a really high opinion of me, so we're going to have to move on there.
1:33So there was really nothing nice about there, but I'm glad you've met Nicolas Cage.
1:37The best thing that Welsh has done is introduce you to Nic Cage.
1:41Yeah, the best thing I've done is like CMC and introduce you to Nicolas Cage.
1:46And you're pretty. And you're pretty. We're going to work on it.
1:49I said that too. Great uneven beard that's going on.
1:52What's up, everybody? Glad to see you guys. Glad to hang out.
1:56Glad to talk some football. And make sure you guys are subscribed to the channel if you're hanging out here.
2:02There's no reason not to be. Continue growing the tailgate where we have a ton of fun talking football, getting to lay
2:08back with the buddies, with the friends who are about to embark upon, by the way, the Fantasy Expo.
2:14You guys are going to be together, which is going to be a great time.
2:19You're going to be around the fantasy football community, but the fantasy football community kind of intertwines with the overall football community as well.
2:26So you guys are going to be having a blast.
2:29I'm going to miss being around you guys. Bigger, though, our big topic in here is I want to talk about Super Bowl contenders.
2:36Before we do so, though, I want to remind you guys about giveaway opportunities.
2:40We've got a chance for you to win a one-year premium access to our sports betting tools over at Betting Pros.
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3:11Gentlemen, I present to you the Mount Rushmore of fragile Super Bowl contenders.
3:14We put the best minds together here at Fantasy Pros, which was Erickson and D-Bros and a little bit of mine.
3:21And we put together not only a Mount Rushmore of Super Bowl contenders, but how fragile are these teams truly yet?
3:27So as you can see on the Mount Rushmore, we have the Kansas City Chiefs, the San Francisco 49ers, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills.
3:35Four teams that for different varying degrees have a fragile run as Super Bowl contenders.
3:39So the question is going to be what makes it so?
3:43And then at the end, I want you guys to come up with who you think and how they are going to fall off the Mount Rushmore.
3:51So Erickson, why don't you start with who you think on this Mount Rushmore?
3:55Because I think, again, if you want to have like a basic line of it, you have the Chiefs with, you know, Mahomes injuries.
4:02You have the 49ers with substations and just, you know, injury woes kind of following them throughout the season.
4:08The Eagles and having an offense that's just hard to fathom that they can continue to roll.
4:13And the Bills, the Bills with all the pieces that work around Josh Allen.
4:17Those are the basic lines here of what I think what can make some of them fragile.
4:22But Erickson, which of these four do you think has the rockiest hold on staying on this Mount Rushmore?
4:28It's got to be the San Francisco 49ers. I knew it.
4:31I knew he was going to go there. Roster is basically built on Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa.
4:37Mike Evans is the new addition. He is the backup.
4:40The plan of, okay, we need reinforcements. Let's bring in 33-year-old Mike Evans on one hamstring.
4:45Like, that's the plan here. Christian Kirk. Like, these are the guys that they're bringing in.
4:50So, for me, and I remember when we did this in the power ranking show a couple months ago, they were, I
4:56think, inside my top three in the NFC power rankings because I was looking at them through a glass half full lens.
5:03It's where, man, if they just don't get gutted by injuries for, like, the third season in a row.
5:09Well, we see what Kyle Shanahan is able to do with his team when he's operating at less than 100%.
5:15I mean, this defense had no one left on it.
5:18And they still did enough with Robert Sala calling the shots to win games.
5:22They won games with Mac Jones last year with Kendrick Bourne as their number one wide receiver against the Rams on Thursday night.
5:29Kyle Shanahan just adds so much to what they do offensively.
5:32I think Raheem Morris coming in as defensive coordinator, I think, is a really good addition.
5:37I think he's one of these head coach coordinators where, when he's the head coach, he's probably a little bit overmatched.
5:43But when you put him in a coordinator position, he does a really, really good job.
5:48So, getting back some of these guys that got hurt last year, whether it's Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, but still, those guys are all old.
5:56Bosa's going to turn 29. Warner's going to turn 30.
5:59McCaffrey already turned 30. Kittle's 33. He hadn't even mentioned George Kittle.
6:02He's also coming off a torn Achilles injury. And then, like, the fact that they have to play in Australia in week one.
6:09It's just like icing on the cake of, okay, we have this injury-playing team.
6:13Let's have them have to fly the farthest ever to a place that we've never done an NFL game, or at least that I can remember.
6:21That we've done a real NFL game to kick off the season or kick off Thursday night because the Patriots play on Wednesday night before.
6:29Or it's just the NFL just seems to do no favors for the 49ers.
6:33And the 49ers still find ways to win and win a lot of games in impressive fashion.
6:38But it's a matter of how long can this last?
6:41Where one guy goes down and is it just a trickle-down effect?
6:45I would like to think that they can't be more injured than last year.
6:49But when you look at the key pieces and how old these guys are and coming off all these injuries, my, like,
6:55blindly betting on, oh, well, they can't be as injured as they were last year.
7:00It's like, well, maybe they can. And for me, that makes them very, very fragile as a team.
7:05Because on paper, it's like, man, I can see this all really working out for them because I've seen them operate.
7:12And, again, Welsh, you know the 49ers better than anyone.
7:15Am I misplaying here, misinterpreting this type of analysis?
7:17Or are you kind of lockstep with, hey, they can be the best team, they can be the worst team if things don't go their way?
7:25Yeah, they're not going to be my pick. But I'm with you on that.
7:29Like, the whole, you know, the whole of the 49ers I think is an incredibly dangerous team.
7:35Christian McCaffrey to Mike Evans. When George Kittle is healthy.
7:38They're all kind of healthy right now. But as you're mentioning, the problem is it's like, okay, what week is Nick Bosa?
7:44What week is Trent Williams? How many weeks is he going to miss?
7:48Is Christian McCaffrey? You know, it is an age level that they're always battling these injuries.
7:53It's one of those things where you look at it and you're just like, man, they're just so unlucky.
7:59And then, like, four years later, you can't be like, man, they're so unlucky.
8:03It's like, no, the construction of these guys that you're bringing in, they're as talented as any team out there.
8:09But they cannot keep these pieces out there. So I do agree that it definitely makes them fragile.
8:14There's another way I want to coax us up here in a second.
8:18But let's get through this Mount Rushmore with you, D-Bro, of who do you think is the most fragile Super Bowl contender?
8:25Because there's another thing I want to talk about on the teams that are not on this list.
8:30But of these four, the identifiers of the most fragile, is it the 49ers?
8:34Or do you have another team? So I'm not going to go for the 49ers.
8:39Although I'm very curious after this conversation, do we get a Russell Wilson-esque stretching video while on the plane from George Kittle?
8:45Does that happen? He's doing lunges down the aisle.
8:48I don't think he's going to play in week one.
8:51He might be wrestling with Tom Brady, to be honest with you.
8:55He might. I can't imagine going on a plane with the torn Achilles.
8:59So I'm not going with the 49ers here. I'm going to go probably contrarian out of all the teams that I feel
9:05like the Chiefs are low-hanging fruit, the 49ers are as well.
9:09Everybody loves to hate on the Eagles except for Eagles fans.
9:12I'm actually going to go with the Bills here.
9:15Because we are stepping into uncharted waters here with Joe Brady as head coach.
9:19We don't know, is he going to be a good head coach?
9:22Is he not? Are the Bills going to look at this after a few weeks into the season and say, man, we
9:29should have probably stuck with Sean McDermott? I don't know, man.
9:32Because, and I really want to highlight the schedule for the Bills.
9:36It is horrible, dude. Like, they start off with the Texans, the Lions, the Chargers, the Patriots, the Rams.
9:42Josh Allen is the tide that lifts all boats.
9:44I understand that. Is there also a world we could be living in where the Bills are 0-5 to start the season?
9:51And it doesn't like, okay, fine, they get the Raiders in week six.
9:55After that, they get the Ravens and the Vikings.
9:58The Vikings are a massive wild card. Are they going to be good?
10:02Are they not going to be good? Like, there's a way where we're walking into week 10 and the Bills are a one-win team.
10:09Is that the, like, is that the median projection?
10:11No. No. But could it happen? It absolutely could.
10:14And then we go off the rails of, like, well, Dalton Kincaid can't seem to stay healthy.
10:19Is DJ Moore cooked? And if those are, like, if he can't stay on the field, Josh Palmer was hurt all last year.
10:26Like, this offense could quickly fall to where they're, depending on Keon Coleman.
10:30Okay, good luck with that. Mecole Hardman, Skylar Bell.
10:33Like, the offensive line is really good. Like, okay, impose your will and we go back to just a run-centric offense.
10:39But it's not like the Bills have been an incredibly healthy team, too.
10:43So, like, I just see a lot of ways that nobody's talking about because it's Josh Allen and it's the Bills and Josh Allen is just Superman.
10:51And that nobody's talking about it, especially with the Bills' schedule of, like, if this goes bad, it could go really bad to begin the season.
10:59You know, an interesting thing, too? We did the BP show together that was, like, a collab with Tailgate.
11:05But, like, Josh Allen's number one on the MVP odds right now as well.
11:09Like, you got to see that's kind of, like, a fragile thing, too.
11:13It's interesting because I wanted to pick on you a little bit and be like, oh, there goes Debro with this.
11:19The Texans are the greatest team on the planet.
11:22They're going to beat everybody and the Colts can't win a game.
11:25But you do look at this schedule and it's like there is a very realistic scenario where they go into Oakland with
11:32an O and we have a winless record going into Oakland.
11:35And I think, too, when you look at why did Sean McDermott get fired, it's because he couldn't win the games in the playoffs.
11:43They had no problem winning games in the regular season.
11:46Like, Sean, like, let's see, they had seven straight ten-win seasons.
11:49Ten-plus-win seasons. Seven straight playoff appearances. Like, not—that's real—Jets fans, tons of fans would love to have that type of coach be their head coach.
11:56I should say a lot of other fan bases would love to have McDermott calling the shots, dude.
12:02They had a legit win seasons for seven straight years.
12:05I get why they had to make the move because with McDermott, it seemed like they weren't going to get over the hump.
12:12So they're taking a risk on Joe Brady, who obviously knows Josh Allen as an offensive play caller, but now he's in
12:18the head coaching chair, which is different. Because now you have to delegate duties because you can't just spend your entire week
12:25leading up to the game on offense. You have to do both things.
12:29Offense, defense, special teams, just overall managing your coaching personnel.
12:32So I think that does matter, given this—I mean, the Texans are the worst draw the Bills can—the Texans have boned and
12:38owned the Buffalo Bills over the last two matchups.
12:41Those are the technical term? It's been bad. Boned and owned?
12:44I love it. It's been bad. It's been bad.
12:47Put that on a shirt. Boned and owned. I was going to say, that needs to go on a t-shirt.
12:53Yeah. Can we get some tailgate merch? Boned and owned.
12:56Please. It needs to be on a tank top of all things.
13:00But really, that's what it's been. It's been terrible for the Buffalo Bills.
13:04That's why one of my favorite week one bets was Texans Moneyline.
13:07Boned and owned, baby. Boned and owned. We're getting that in the shop store.
13:11Over on Fantasy Pros at BettingPros, we're giving away shop store codes.
13:15Go over there. Get your shop store code. We have got to have a—can we do Houston boned and owned?
13:21Sorry. Oh my god, Erickson. I love that. I am actually—we did not plan this, but I am going to pick a different team here.
13:29Maybe it's lower hanging fruit, as mentioned. I think the Eagles are the one that jump out to me.
13:34They're a little boned and owned in their offense.
13:37And I'm just still not convinced. That's my ultimate problem.
13:40It's Jalen Hurts and how they are going to run offenses.
13:43You take a—I don't think there's a scenario where you are— Hurts, Hater.
13:47Yeah, but where you are going to sell me—not you—this is more rhetorical.
13:51But like, anyone can sell me that like A.J.
13:54Brown out of this offense is like a good thing.
13:57Like, that's a bad thing. That's not going to be good.
14:00It doesn't make me feel positively convinced that they're going to be able to move the ball.
14:05It was one of the—just one of the slower-paced offenses that can't move the ball in the air.
14:11It's Jalen Hurts specifically. Like, there was a time where we were going to kind of do this segment in a, you
14:17know, who are Super Bowl contenders that have like a great quarterback and the pieces around, or vice versa, pieces around that have an interesting quarterback situation.
14:25I kind of think that's the Eagles. Like, I think they play well.
14:29It's a division that's—it's open for interpretation. They've got a strength of schedule I've seen in some spots.
14:35It's like a top 10 strength of schedule that works out there.
14:38But I think it's the offense that still holds them down.
14:42And I don't feel convinced that what they've done is going to fix that.
14:46And it's like, you know, the Commanders are looking to press more.
14:49The Cowboys are looking to press more. I just—when I look at all of these teams, I think the Bills case is really interesting.
14:57The 49ers kind of comes down to health. The team that we're not talking about, obviously, is the Chiefs.
15:02They're always in contention, but really what Patrick Mahomes do we have anymore?
15:06I hone in. I look at the Eagles as going.
15:09I think it's super fragile because Jalen Hurts, the main piece that runs through, has not been a proven passer to us.
15:16And a guy that can, I think, carry the game in a way that is going to put them in a great spot.
15:23So I think that's the team that concerns me the most.
15:26Is there any hand up to anybody that was thinking the Chiefs, but you just kind of cross it off?
15:32Maybe it's too easy or—I don't know. You just—maybe the Chiefs didn't belong on this list if all three of us didn't pick the Chiefs.
15:40I think with the Chiefs, it's not that we didn't pick them.
15:43It's the—look at the betting odds. Chiefs are the top of every single Super Bowl.
15:48They're favored to win the division. Why? Because it's Mahomes and Reid, right?
15:52It's because they just have that built-in credibility. They're always there at the end.
15:56But this was the same scenario with the Patriots.
15:59I know a lot of people made the comparisons to the Patriots dynasty, to the Chiefs dynasty.
16:04And there was a low period for the Patriots when Brady tore his ACL and was coming off.
16:09And then they missed the playoffs the following year.
16:12The Chiefs also weren't good last year, even before Mahomes got hurt.
16:15They were not a good—they were not going to make the playoffs, even with Mahomes healthy and in the lineup.
16:21And obviously, they completely fell off when he got hurt, and they lost the last three games of the season.
16:27Well, the voodoo they had the previous year, where they won basically like every— they were the Bears or the Commanders of 2024.
16:34They won like every single close game. Like every coin flip went their way.
16:39All that regressed hard last year. Yeah. So I think for me, and part of it is Mahomes' number one target has been Travis Kelsey.
16:46And you've seen over the last four years that efficiency has declined.
16:50Every single season, because Kelsey's getting up, up, up.
16:52He's 37 years old. Just married Taylor Swift. Do you think he's going to be locked and loaded for this season?
16:59He is. He's owned and boned, dude. He's ready.
17:01We haven't even talked about Rasheed Rice. Like, does he start the year on the pup?
17:06Yeah. He's another guy. I'm sorry. I don't feel really good about the rehab plan while he was in jail.
17:12I mean, call me crazy, guys. But, you know.
17:15I think he's going to be healthy, but that's not a matter of— I mean, he hasn't been— We'll see.
17:21He hasn't been available. I mean, healthy and available aren't even— Again, with Rasheed Rice, you never know what's going to happen.
17:28He could be out there one week, and then the next week he's doing something off the field.
17:33He's speeding through downtown Dallas the next week. Yeah, who knows.
17:36Being a dummy. So, I think the Chiefs are definitely fragile, and I think they deserve to be on this list.
17:43But I think that there's some market sentiment that believes, oh, well, they're just going to find a way.
17:48Because they always do. And I just don't think it's this year.
17:52I think that this is a year where you can expect Mahomes to not be his usual self coming off a torn
17:59ACL, and they'll get back to it in 2027.
18:01But for me, it's like the moves they made, trading away Trent McDuffie.
18:05I think they made some good draft picks for the future.
18:08But I think this is a retool year for the Kansas City Chiefs.
18:12And I think they're fine with that. It's like, no, we're going to get Mahomes ready for the second half of our dynasty run.
18:20We're going to win in different ways. We're going to run the football with Ken Walker and do things a little bit differently.
18:27Also, last year, they were one of the healthiest defenses in the NFL.
18:30So, I don't think that's going to repeat. Chiefs for me, our team that, yeah, retool, not necessarily a major Super Bowl contender.
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20:18Bank of America and a member FDIC. Yeah, and I didn't pick the Chiefs because, honestly, I don't view them as being a Super Bowl contender this year.
20:27To Erickson's points, I think this is a retool year.
20:30I think that they could start Mahomes. I do not care what they say about his recovery and crap right now.
20:36It's all going to be positivity. That's what they're going to put out in the space and the media and all that kind of crap.
20:44I think there's a way where he starts on the pup.
20:47I think that they try to save him from himself and start him on the pup.
20:52Because, again, I do believe this is a retool year.
20:55Because they went full defense in the NFL draft.
20:57So bumping up that side of the ball, I think they're probably going to retool the entire offense outside of Ken Walker.
21:04Like all their pass catchers in this upcoming NFL draft year.
21:07So I look at this as a reset year for the Chiefs.
21:11So I just, I honestly don't think they're going to be sniffing a Super Bowl this year.
21:16So something people are probably asking, okay, where are the Patriots?
21:19Where are the Rams? Where are the Seahawks? I don't know if we could put together another Rushmore of the four teams
21:26that we did, that are Super Bowl contenders that we didn't say were fragile.
21:30Those three I just listed off. I think every other one, if you want to be like, well, the Broncos went for,
21:37you know, I just don't think they sit in the same vibe as those other three teams.
21:42But if you wanted to do it, do you think there's a little bit more fragility?
21:47We should be paying attention to any of those teams or do they deserve the pass?
21:52Like from the betting pro show, we talked about, I feel like the Patriots are going to be the one that maybe we pick on.
21:59Like, I think the Rams are locked. If you pick on the Seahawks and the Niners, if anything, it's that ridiculous division that they're going through.
22:07There seem to be some questions, especially Mr. Patriot over here, Erickson has.
22:11But do you think the other Super Bowl contenders that we didn't give the designation of fragile maybe should be a little bit more?
22:18Or do you think this is rightfully done? Like those are the teams that need to be placed in a little bit
22:25of a higher standard because the Patriots added. The Rams added defensively, ridiculously.
22:29And obviously, you know, the Seahawks, I mean, I guess there's still some questions around them, especially losing Ken Walker.
22:35But does anybody here, Erickson, I'll start with you.
22:37Do you believe that we should have given a little bit more attention to those other guys?
22:42Or do they get a pass as the real true Super Bowl contenders?
22:46I've got two teams, by the way, that I think we should that should be discussed here.
22:51Well, I do think that the Rams, when it comes to fragility, Matthew Stafford's back, right?
22:56That's all that we can talk about all season last year.
22:59And because he stayed healthy and the offensive line was excellent last year, keeping him upright.
23:04Now we're not worried about it at all, right?
23:07It's like, oh, well, I'm just going to win the Super Bowl.
23:11I am. I'm worried about it. But that's what I mean.
23:14It's just not nearly as discussed as much because nothing ended up transpiring.
23:18But that risk is still there. And what if he does go down or he has to miss time?
23:24Jimmy Garoppolo's not even on the roster anymore. So there is a...
23:27Ty Simpson, baby. Yeah, Ty Simpson is a rookie.
23:30You know, are they going to throw him into the fire?
23:33Would they make a trade? We don't know. Playing up there in age.
23:37Played at MVP level last year. I think the offensive line for the Rams too, Alrick Jackson has this ongoing legal thing
23:44that could or could not result in a suspension.
23:46What happens if they already lost Havenstein? He retired.
23:49So yeah, you're losing in yet another tackle. Again, this offensive line was lights out last year, keeping Matthew Stafford upright.
23:55They suffer a couple more injuries here and there.
23:58You see a compiling effect. I think that's the number one thing with all of these teams as it comes to fragility.
24:05If you have an offensive line that breaks down, that is what derails your season.
24:09We've seen it with so many teams over the years where everything looks great on paper, the skilled position players, elite, the
24:16quarterback, oh, he's going to throw it all over the yard.
24:19You got great defensive backs. But then in the trenches, a couple injuries here and there, guys are going to have to
24:26battle up in their weight class, and they struggle as a result.
24:29So those are concerns I have for specifically with a team like the Rams, where if the offensive line is not as
24:36good, Stafford maybe misses a couple more games. I mean, last year, remember, and their division is so tough.
24:42Like the Rams have no, like, where's the margin of error for the Rams?
24:46It's non-existent. Like they got to be pretty perfect.
24:49And yes, they have the roster to do so.
24:51The margins at the quarterback though. I guess I disagree with that.
24:55Like you're saying, what is the margin for error?
24:58Like the defense, if they're going to bring Donald back, they've got Garrett.
25:02Like they've got an insane wide receiver core, an insane running back core.
25:05Like the margin of error is that quarterback for me.
25:08So the Stafford thing, I think is a low hanging fruit.
25:12Like if he goes out, he misses time. They're kibosh.
25:15They're not a super bowl team. Yeah. I think we could argue it might be the most screwed, even though they have these great pieces.
25:22But I can also go to the offensive line.
25:25Their depth is not great, man. Like Alaric Jackson.
25:28And by the way, with the Alaric Jackson stuff, it sounds like he's been cleared of all this stuff.
25:33So I'm not worried about the felony stuff, but does anybody, would anybody feel great about David Quisenberry, Bo Lemur, Dylan McMahon,
25:40like any of these guys, if we were to step into the two, because it's not like Steve Avila's not like ever had injuries.
25:47You, you, I mean, outside of your two starting tackles, they're thin as far as their offensive line behind their starters.
25:54And then again, like this is even a Stafford thing to say.
25:57Stafford stays healthy. What if Puka gets hurt and Devante Adams gets hurt?
26:01He, Puka, we've seen enough injuries. Devante Adams was hurt last year.
26:05If both of those guys go down, I'm so happy that the Rams have 17 freaking tight ends.
26:10That's wonderful. Okay. But their wide receiver room is Xavier Smith, Kenanthe Munpo, CJ Daniels, Tyler Scott, Mario Williams, Brennan Presley, True
26:17Edwards, who is just, I'm 28 years old. Elvis Presley.
26:20There you go. Well, you won't even know who that is.
26:23You're too young anyway. But this all goes back to like the defense.
26:27I feel incredibly good about because of their depth.
26:30Their offense is so freaking top heavy that if Puka and Adams miss time, this was the big problem that I had
26:36with them drafting a Ty Simpson, a third receiver on this step chart that could step in.
26:41If either one of those guys are held, both of them misses time would be huge for them.
26:47But, you know, when you get to get your quarterback of the future, I guess you got to get the quarterback of
26:53the future who might not even be freaking good.
26:56But, you know, then they're going to go sign Stefan Diggs and that'll, we'll take that out.
27:01But I get what you're saying. We'll see. But the other thing about like moving on from the Rams, I think it's
27:08kind of crazy that like how much steam and the fact that the Baltimore Ravens are the third highest, third best favorite right now for Superbowl odds.
27:16Like we're all just pretending like Lamar Jackson coming off a down year didn't happen.
27:20We're all just pretending like that. He doesn't have an injury history and disappears at various times during the back half of the regular season.
27:28We're all pretending like their offensive line doesn't have issues.
27:31They have a brand new head coach. And while I think he's going to be good, we don't know.
27:37They have a brand new offensive coordinator and everybody's like, Oh, he's going to be amazing because of all the Ben Johnson shine.
27:44And it's like, but what if he's not like, we've never seen him call plays in the freaking NFL.
27:49The other part about all of that is too, is we've never seen Lamar Jackson operate in a timing based offense as well.
27:56Oh, wait. Well, speaking of said passing offense, everybody feels good about their pass catchers pass a flowers.
28:02You feel good about Taz Walker. We don't know we're going to get out of Elijah Surratt.
28:07Mark Andrews. Is he cooked? Isaiah likely is gone.
28:09I think the, the, the wind total for the Baltimore Ravens, which last time I looked was the highest in the freaking
28:16NFL at 11 and a half is outright insanity.
28:19No, that can't be, I don't, is that right?
28:21That doesn't sound right. Last time I looked unless I'm wrong, Erickson.
28:25I haven't looked at the recent, uh, wind totals.
28:28I know it was high and it was definitely one that I was not interested in pursuing.
28:33Looking at thinking about, yeah, I'm trying to look here.
28:36I had one of the things up here. They are, yeah, they're 10 and a half, but it's not the highest.
28:42They're, they're with like, uh, Detroit Buffalo. Actually, the Los Angeles Rams are the highest total right now at 11 and a half, according to betting pros.
28:50If you go check out on the, it's either the consensus side, but the Rams are there.
28:55But to your point, the Ravens are high up there.
28:58So I hadn't even really considered them when you really put together crazy Superbowl contender.
29:03So, I mean the, the, the, so it looks like the Ravens are consensus.
29:07They're right there with the Rams. Both of them are 11 and a half.
29:11Yeah. Well, I think with the, with the Ravens last year, that was just like insane.
29:16Like the example of how fragile they are. Lamar got hurt and the entire season fell apart and the coach got fired.
29:23Right. It was just, yeah. Yeah. Like, is anything that I laid out here, should they be tied with the Rams for the highest projected total right now?
29:31Like, but I think it has to do with the division.
29:34I think that they're the, by the way, give me the bangles, give me the bangles easy to win that division.
29:41I was looking at strength, strength of schedule. three of the teams in this division, uh, include the Browns, actually Browns are at the top, then the Ravens.
29:49And then the bangles, I believe are all like in the top 10, like top 10, top 12, a strength of schedule.
29:56But I think it's so wide open. And, and you know, Steelers kind of making a downtick.
30:01I think that's where this is coming from, but no, like they shouldn't be in the same territory.
30:06They shouldn't be with the Rams at all. I completely agree.
30:10So what I'm curious about though, is what do you guys think in the comments below?
30:14Who is the most fragile Superbowl contender? We put up our Mount Rushmore, but some compelling cases against the Rams, the Ravens.
30:21There might even be some crossover from the BP show we did with the Patriots, but who is number one in your guys's eye.
30:28We had three different looks, so we really couldn't knock a single one off.
30:32If anything, we left the stupid Chiefs up there as the top dog without having too big of a pick on, on them.
30:39So there you go. Fragile Superbowl contenders. Friends, we are just weeks away from the college football season kickoff, and we've given
30:46our college football betting content, its own dedicated channel.
30:49This is huge. Go search for our brand new betting pros college football channel on YouTube at betting pros college football.
30:55Super easy, right? And hit subscribe. Seth Walcock and my buddy, my best friend, Scott Bogman will give you their favorite future bets during the summer.
31:03Then you can stay tuned throughout the fall for their previews of each week's biggest matchups, their best bets, and a ton
31:09more search betting pros, college football on YouTube and go and subscribe today.
31:13Get those first episodes in. That is a big, I mean, like the tailgate, the tailgate spawned off of another great channel
31:20at fantasy pros and the college football channel is doing the same thing.
31:24So make sure you go support it. We are going to finish off this episode of tailgate with some hot takes.
31:30This gentleman right next to me, by the way, Mr.
31:33Andrew Erickson actually was a part of one of my favorite things I've ever done here.
31:38Fantasy pros, where we did the hot takes fantasy football podcast, where we were actually doing hot sauces and we had all these takes that had different meters.
31:46And we were trying to give our analysis. If you haven't ever seen it, go back and watch it.
31:52We had to give our fantasy football analysis while consuming wings with hot sauce on it.
31:57And me and Erickson went ham. We went hardcore on that.
32:00So I will also own an L. I opted out of that because I would have been in a hospital bed for a week.
32:07Like I would have been down for the count with my poor sensitive stuff.
32:12We had multiple people that were not willing to do it.
32:15And Erickson stepped up and he absolutely rushed it.
32:18So I have an affinity for hot takes. So as we finished the show, we were asked and tasked for our most controversial hot take.
32:25So we've got about five minutes left in the show here.
32:29And I want to get you, I'm going to end with mine.
32:32So Erickson, you kick us off here. Your most controversial take that you could put together.
32:37We did kind of liken it a little bit to, you know, like team, team based things.
32:42Like we, we didn't get granular to like this player is going to have, it's a little bit more macro scope of it.
32:49So your controversial macro scope of the NFL season is what?
32:52The jets are not going to be a total dumpster fire in 2026.
32:56And that is going to correspond with Aaron Glenn, not being the first head coach fired.
33:01Because you look at any of the futures markets, he is number one on the list of who's going to be fired first.
33:08Aaron Glenn, like that's what everyone expects to happen.
33:11And I don't think it's going to happen. I think that the jets have made enough on the personnel side, because when
33:17you look at the roster, I think it's really good.
33:20I think that they have a lot of really fun skill position players from Garrett Wilson, 80 Mitchell.
33:26They drafted Kenyon city, Omar Cooper, ton of talent on the offensive side of the football, young, entertaining, exciting talent that I
33:32think Gino Smith, who I don't think is also cooked.
33:35Look, I think last year, Gino Smith showed when he actually had an offensive line that wasn't clearly derailed by injuries and Brock Bowers.
33:42I saw it in week one against my Patriots.
33:45He cooked us. He wrecked us because he had those two things.
33:49But after the offensive line for the Raiders just got completely decimated by injuries, Brock Bowers got hurt.
33:54Gino Smith had no chance because he was seventh in completion rate last year from a clean pocket.
34:00I still think Gino Smith is still an above average in terms of completing the football to his playmakers.
34:05I think he can play point guard in this offense, not high on Frank Gregg whatsoever.
34:10But if you look at the list of offensive coordinators, Gino Smith has played with, it's not this murderers row.
34:16It's not a Mount Rushmore. It's Shane Waldron, Chip Kelly, and, and who is the last guy?
34:21Ryan Grubb. Three guys who are no longer offensive coordinators in the NFL.
34:25So I'm just saying like, you know, Smith got it done with Shane Waldron, who we look at as, Oh yeah, this
34:32is the guy that goes to places and kills us for fantasy football.
34:36Shane Fraudron. Exactly. And he won comeback player of the year with Shane Waldron and had a lot of success in Seattle
34:42for multiple seasons with Waldron calling the shots. So yes, I'm not super enamored by Frank Reich and what he did Stanford.
34:49And is he more of a fossil offensive play caller?
34:52Yeah. But can he be better than Chip Kelly was last year, who was horrendous across every facet and was the highest
34:59paid offensive coordinator and got fired midway through the season?
35:02I think so. So for those, I think offense will be better with Gino Smith, with these weapons and defensively.
35:08I mean, they have eight new starters on this defense across the board.
35:11They've totally revamped it. And I think you're going to see more of Aaron Glenn's defense, specifically what he wants to do.
35:18He's going to be calling plays the full time instead of last year, where Steve Wilkes was calling a lot of plays.
35:25And that was obviously a bad decision on Glenn's part to let someone else do that.
35:29He's going to be taking responsibility. David Bailey, high draft pick, all the trades they made, make it Fitzpatrick to Vonda, who they traded for.
35:37I think there's talent on this Jets roster and they have to play Miami twice.
35:42So that's two more wins. Hand up. You saying Aaron Glenn, not getting fired first is the controversial take.
35:47And I'm here for a D bro, your controversial take on the macro perspective for the NFL season.
35:53Full Homer, baby. Don't care. All gas, no breaks.
35:55The saints are going to have a 2025 Patriots run.
35:58They're going to run the table all the way to the super bowl, baby.
36:03And I'm here for it. Like Tyler Shuck takes a big step.
36:06Calvin Moore shows he's one of the best head coaches in the NFL.
36:10Second easiest schedule right now in projected wind totals.
36:13Last year, they closed the season at four and one.
36:16They, if they would have kept scoring in that entire clip for the entirety of the season, they'd have been a top 12 offense.
36:23This off season, they added Caden Ellis, Travis, each hand, David Edwards, Kristen Miller, Jordan Tyson, Bryce Lance, Oscar dealt.
36:29They have a talented secondary. They can take a step forward.
36:32They had the parts of pieces to have one of the best offensive lines of the NFL.
36:37Who that baby all in saints. Let's go big shock there.
36:41All right, mine gentlemen, we are going to have a winless team in 2026.
36:45We will have a team that will go the entire stretch and go.
36:49in 17. And I love that type of stuff.
36:52Do you know what team is going to go winless in 2026?
36:55I do. Yeah. Your hometown Cardinals. It is the Arizona Cardinals where I live are going to lose every single game this season.
37:02Put the schedule up week one. The chargers loss Seattle loss at San Francisco.
37:06Big loss. The giants shocking loss Detroit. Oh, it's going to be nasty.
37:10L Rams, L Denver, L Dallas Cowboys. Nope. That's an L Seattle Seahawks.
37:14Loss Rams loss. Chiefs loss. The Washington commanders. Yeah, that's a loss.
37:18Then we're going to end it out. The Eagles, the jets, the saints, the Raiders, and the 49ers for an Oh, and 17 season.
37:25The worst strength of schedule in the NFL. The Cardinals have a horrific division where we joked about how D bro said with my Colts thing.
37:33Oh, they're going to lose all the, the Cardinals are going to lose all their divisional games.
37:38There are probably like two to three games that are even within reach.
37:42If we're being honest here. And that one probably comes in the second to last week when they're at home against the Raiders, but they are so bad.
37:50The bags will be packed in. They want to be more of a running team.
37:55They can run all they want, but it ain't going to be the wins zero wins for the Arizona Cardinals.
38:01That's my controversial take. I live here in Arizona, so I'm going to be dodging all the things thrown at me, but you guys can let us know.
38:09Dodging the W's. They're going to be boned and own the Cardinals for the season.
38:14They can have the number one overall pick. That's my take, but what's your guys' controversial take?
38:19I love it. Aaron Glenn, not fired. Saints looking like the Rams and the Cardinals winless.
38:24That is how we finish this out. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
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39:41That's going to do it. Game over, gentlemen. The tailgate in the books.
39:45Thank you too for dealing with me. Hopefully you guys all were into enjoy as well.
39:50Hopefully in the comments we can hear from all of your takes and more.
39:54Make sure you subscribe to the channel here at tailgate as we continue to have the best time talking football with your besties.
40:01Even if your besties don't have like awesome things to say about you, like, Hey, what do you like about me?
40:07You got me into Nicolas Cage. You like CMC.
40:10Even that is okay. And hopefully you guys like us about a little bit more.
40:14That's going to do it. For Erickson and D-Bro, I'm Welsh.
40:18Tailgate. We're out of here for now. Peace. Honey, Felipe sent another photo.
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