NFL Week 7 Best Bets: Top Player Props & Anytime TD Picks (Ep. 2290)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
44 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 24, 2026
Published
Sat, October 24, 2026
31
Player insights
24
Players mentioned
Topics
Pat FreiermuthBraelon AllenGarrett WilsonGeno SmithOmar Cooper Jr.Tyrone TracyA.J. BrownBo NixChristian KirkDeshaun WatsonDevin SingletaryGeorge KittleJ.K. DobbinsJaylen Waddle
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeProjection4:28
The source notes A.J. Brown underperformed on Thursday Night Football in week seven, not generating a lot of receiving yards and described as 'A.J. Bum.' This was part of a poor week overall for the betting pros team's prop picks.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveMatchup25:50
Bo Nix faces a Cardinals secondary ranked 31st in pass defense and 32nd in wide receiver coverage; Cardinals have allowed at least two passing touchdowns to five straight weeks of quarterbacks (16-3 TD-to-INT ratio). Nix has struggled this season but this is a get-right situation; Cardinals rank 31st in pass rush pressure, which helps Nix who hasn't been running much. The source recommends over 1.5 passing touchdowns at plus money.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
PositiveRole21:58
If Braylon Allen returns, it's viewed as a positive for Geno Smith's passing yards prop against the Dolphins, as Allen can make big plays and adds to the receiving weapons available to Smith in a favorable matchup.
Insight pageNegativeInjury22:46
The source notes that if Braylon Allen and Brees return from injury, it remains a positive development for the Jets' passing game, though the exact impact is uncertain.
Insight pageChristian Kirk
PositiveMatchup39:12
Christian Kirk anytime touchdown at +360 odds is a featured play for the source; positioned as a second big-play touchdown pick for Week 7.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeProjection0:20
The source cites Deshaun Watson as a missed prop from the previous week. Watson was projected to have under 28.5 rushing yards but finished with 29 rushing yards, missing the under by one yard.
Insight pageDevin Singletary
NegativeRole19:41
Expected to mix into the Giants backfield committee alongside Cam Scadaboo and Tyron Tracy. Last week led the team in snaps despite not leading in carries, suggesting a pass-catching or situational role. Against the Texans' elite run defense, the entire backfield is viewed as a fade.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveMatchup21:58
Wilson is expected to be peppered by Geno Smith against the Dolphins, who rank 30th of 32 against quarterbacks in pass coverage and struggle particularly against receivers. The source views this as a favorable matchup for Smith's passing yards prop, which benefits Wilson as a primary target.
Insight pagePositiveUsage22:42
The source expects Geno Smith to pepper Garrett Wilson with targets in Week 7, positioning him as a primary receiving option.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveProjection21:58
The source targets Geno Smith's passing yards over 220 against the Dolphins. Smith has hit this prop in three of his last five games. The Dolphins have given up the passing yards prop to quarterbacks in three of their last four games, going 240+ on each; they rank 30th of 32 against quarterbacks in pass coverage and have given up 20 completions to every quarterback that has played them. The Dolphins struggle particularly against tight ends and running backs. There are also 240-yard lines floating around for Smith to monitor. The source views 220 as a relatively low number in a favorable matchup.
Insight pagePositiveProjection22:42
The source targets Geno Smith's passing yards over 220.5 (221 on the over) against Miami; the Dolphins have allowed 20+ completions to every quarterback this season, and when Smith completes 20+ passes, he historically smashes this passing yard total.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveProjection0:55
The source mentions George Kittle as part of National Tight Ends Day commentary, suggesting he will have a 'big monster game' this week. The source notes that coaches love getting tight ends involved on this day.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeProjection30:00
The source is taking an under on Dobbins' rushing yards (51.5) against the Cardinals. While Cardinals average 100 yards given up per game to running backs, they kept both Corum and Kyron Williams under this total last week against the Rams. The source expects a three-back system with Jonah Coleman and RJ Harvey taking share, reducing Dobbins' lion's share of carries.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveMatchup27:15
Jalen Waddle faces Cardinals ranked 31st in wide receiver coverage; the source specifically highlights Waddle anytime touchdown as a play against this weak secondary.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
NegativeRole30:48
If active, Coleman is expected to be brought into the Broncos' backfield rotation against the Cardinals, potentially taking share from J.K. Dobbins in a three-back system. The source notes that Peyton had indicated in the preseason that they had seen enough from Coleman before his injury, but his return could activate a three-back approach.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection13:13
The source targets Kyler Murray under 30.5 pass attempts against the Colts, rated five stars by the betting pros prop cheat sheet. Murray has only gone over this number once in three full starts this season. His scrambling ability reduces passing attempts. Only one QB (Patrick Mahomes in overtime) has attempted more than 31 passes against the Colts this year. The Colts defense ranks bottom-five overall and allows 30 seconds EPA per rush. Minnesota ranks bottom-eight in pass rate and pass rate over expectations, and with running backs healthy (Mason returning from IR, Aaron Jones available), the Vikings are likely to lean on the ground game rather than force Murray to drop back 31+ times. Recent QBs against the Colts: Cam Ward 22, Rogers 31, Stroud 27, Mahomes 47, Lamar Jackson 25.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveProjection5:33
The source targets Kyron Williams over 60.5 rushing yards against the Raiders, citing his vocal frustration after limited touches in the Rams' loss to Arizona, Sean McVay's history of favoring him, and career-high receiving usage this season. The Rams face injuries to John Adams and Pukunukua, increasing Williams' workload. The Raiders allow 114 rushing yards per game (second-most), and the last five running backs they faced all went over their rushing yard props: James Cook 95, Stevenson 64, Ken Walker 177, Henderson 57, and O'Marion Hampton 94. Williams went over 14.5 carries in three of his last four games. Last year in three games without Devontae Adams, he posted 70, 92, and 60 rushing yards.
Insight pageMatthew Hibner
PositiveMatchup39:56
Matthew Hibner, Ravens rookie tight end from SMU, is a 55-to-1 first-touchdown play for Week 7 against Cincinnati. Hibner ranks top 15 among all tight ends in snap percentage inside the 10-yard line; he missed last week with a hand injury but has been practicing in full and is expected back in the lineup. The Ravens have increased usage of both rookie tight ends (Hibner and Josh Quavos) following Durham Smythe's torn Achilles injury. If Hibner returns to his 50% snap rate from weeks three and four, he will see red zone opportunities. Cincinnati is one of the teams the source specifically targets for tight end plays due to poor coverage.
Insight pageOmar Cooper Jr.
PositiveMatchup21:58
Cooper is expected to be peppered by Geno Smith against the Dolphins, who rank 30th of 32 against quarterbacks in pass coverage. The source views this as a favorable matchup for Smith's passing yards prop, which benefits Cooper as a primary target alongside Garrett Wilson.
Insight pagePositiveUsage22:42
The source expects Geno Smith to pepper Omar Cooper with targets in Week 7, positioning him as a primary receiving option alongside Garrett Wilson.
Insight pageParker Washington
NegativeProjection0:17
The source cites Parker Washington as a missed prop from the previous week, noting he was projected for 10 targets but only caught four. This was part of a poor week for the betting pros team.
Insight pagePat Freiermuth
PositiveProjection28:00
Pat Freiermuth (birthday boy on Sunday, national tight ends day) is projected over 29.5 receiving yards; he has gone over this mark in four of six games played this season. The matchup against Saints is favorable—Saints have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season and have faced seven different tight ends that all went over 30 receiving yards. Freiermuth had a disappointing game last week but was a late injury report addition and may not have been at 100 percent.
Insight pagePositiveMatchup28:41
Saints have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season and have faced seven different tight ends that all went over 30 receiving yards. Despite mixing in with Darnell Washington, Freiermuth ran more routes than Washington last week despite injury, positioning him to run closer to 70-80% of routes in this positive matchup.
Insight pagePositiveProjection29:18
The source projects Freiermuth to hit 30 receiving yards in the Saints matchup, framing it as a spot where he can thrive given the Saints' weakness against tight ends and his elevated route share.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeRole30:48
RJ Harvey is expected to get his run in the Broncos' three-back system against the Cardinals, taking share from J.K. Dobbins in a game where the source projects the Broncos will have success passing the ball.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveProjection7:00
The source hammers the over on Tank Dell receiving yards at 8.5, noting he hasn't played in two years but is a favorite target of CJ Stroud. Dell has never gone under 8.5 receiving yards when active in prior seasons; his lowest longest reception is nine yards. Over his first two NFL seasons, he generated explosive receptions (15+ yards) on 5.3% of routes run (17th-highest among receivers with 500+ routes), and recorded 1,000+ receiving yards on downfield receptions (10+ air yards, 28th-most). Head coach DeMeco Ryans stated there's no expectation for a specific snap count, just getting Dell back on the field. Sharp money is backing the over at -186 on prediction markets. The source expects Dell to catch at least one pass, likely over 10 yards.
Insight pageTre Tucker
PositiveProjection16:20
The source takes Trey Tucker over 40.5 receiving yards against the Rams. Tucker has hit the over in five straight games. The prop is at projections with no heavy lean from betting pros. Using the comparable players tool, all six wide receivers locked in against the Rams have gone over this receiving prop. Seven wide receivers have faced the Rams and gone over this prop in every game except one (Eagles). The 49ers had three wide receivers hit this prop in week one. Tucker has played like a pseudo number one receiver. The Rams are expected to be aggressive against the struggling Raiders.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveMatchup39:38
Tucker Craft first touchdown at 14-to-1 odds is the source's National Tight Ends Day first-touchdown pick. PFF grades Craft as the number one tight end matchup for the week; coverage stinks across the board, making him an attractive first-touchdown target.
Insight pageTyler Higbee
PositiveProjection24:01
The source targets Tyler Higbee over 4.5 receptions (line moved from 3.5 due to Devontae Adams and Puka Nakua injuries); Higbee has 4+ catches in 4 straight games with 62+ receiving yards in 3 of those games since Week 3; his route participation hit a season high at 78% last week versus Kobe Parkinson's 53%, indicating better usage despite Parkinson's higher production; against Las Vegas (allowed third-most catches to tight ends), Higbee serves as Matthew Stafford's check-down option with the wide receiver position compromised.
Insight pageTyrone Tracy
NegativeProjection18:28
The source targets Tyron Tracy under 25.5 rushing yards against an unspecified opponent. Last week Tracy led the Giants backfield in carries but was underwhelming, posting six carries for 18 yards and a rushing touchdown. He did not lead the team in snaps. With Cam Skaggs expected to return to the lead role and Devin Singletary also mixing in, Tracy's workload is expected to decrease.
Insight pageNegativeUsage19:41
Tracy led the Giants backfield in carries last week with six for 18 yards and a rushing touchdown, but was underwhelming on the ground and didn't lead the team in snaps; Devin Singletary led in snaps. In a backfield committee against the Texans' seventh-fewest rushing yards allowed per game and second-fewest yards per carry (3.4), Tracy has averaged only 3.1 yards per carry this season and hasn't been efficient with opportunities. When previously in a committee with Cam Scadaboo earlier in the season, his rushing prop was around 15.5-16.5 yards; the source fades this backfield into oblivion given the brutal matchup.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Maybe you can do both.
0:04Boost Mobile, what's your plan? We didn't have a great week.
0:07It was our worst week we've had in a little bit.
0:10It was a bad week. We acknowledge it. It hurt.
0:13I think you single-handedly had maybe the worst bet you've ever put on here.
0:17I had multiple bets missed by Parker Washington, 10 targets.
0:20He caught four. Deshaun Watson needed under 28.5 rushing yards.
0:23Guess what he finished with? 29. 29. And you single-handedly, you just threw Cam Skataboo out there.
0:28Like that was scam Scadaboo, Mr. Erickson. Scam Skataboo, yes.
0:31We got Skam Skatabooed last week. All-time worst prop I think I've ever given out since becoming part of Betting Pros.
0:37Probably my entire life just giving out any type of props, picks, etc.
0:41So, and we're not off to a great start here in week seven.
0:44A.J. Brown, A.J. Bum, as he was on Thursday Night Football.
0:48Not a lot of receiving yards for him. So, not feeling super, super great.
0:52But, hey, we have a whole new slate on Sunday.
0:55A little bit of Monday action. And, hey, National Tight Ends Day.
0:58Anything can happen. Because we've got tight ends on the card this week.
1:02So, we know that these coaches love getting these tight ends involved.
1:05George Kittle, you know, he's going to have a big monster game.
1:09All of these tight ends. So, we're looking to rebound, bounce back.
1:12And, I mean, nowhere to go with up. Just like Cam Skataboo's touches.
1:16Scam. Skam Scadaboo. Alright, so what it was last week.
1:19You're better than me. I was one and four.
1:22That's horrifically bad. You were two and three. We were both under 500.
1:26I hit the touchdown, though. And you did not hit a touchdown.
1:29So, you had a zero touchdown call. Negative ROI.
1:32I had a positive ROI because I had the one touchdown call.
1:35Here's a fun fact on your tight ends, by the way.
1:38We both. I don't even know how this is possible.
1:41But we both only have two touchdown calls on the year.
1:44Which is also incredible. But all our touchdown calls have been tight ends.
1:48I just want to throw that out. Every correct touchdown call has been a tight end so far.
1:54So, we'll have to be dealing with that. So, two touchdown calls correctly on both sides.
1:58We're both like slightly under ROI for the year on the touchdown calls.
2:02Because of that, we're essentially about like a unit under.
2:05No first touchdown calls. Bad week on the season.
2:08You are still doing good on the season, though.
2:1015 and 10. I am 11 and 14. Last week really killed me.
2:14So, we have got to turn the slate. One good thing about this before we jump into our props.
2:20We officially are going into a Jameer Gibbs rollover week.
2:22If you haven't been following along, we have five weeks under our belt of every single week betting the touchdown.
2:28Anytime touchdown for Jameer Gibbs. Then taking those winnings and rolling that over next week.
2:33And next week. And the following week. So, I think you might have mentioned it last week.
2:38But going into this week, the Lions going up against the Packers.
2:41Meant to be a high scoring. I think the total is 53 and a half.
2:45What were we adding? Like four or five units?
2:48Or somewhere around that. What was that marker? Was it like, was it five or was it like four and a half?
2:55It's like four and a half units. Okay. Is where we're at with the Jameer Gibbs.
2:59And the fact that he's talking about wanting to break the Dainley and Talaminson's record.
3:04This is very good for those that have been tailing this approach throughout the first five weeks, six weeks of the season.
3:10Because this is now just not a Jameer Gibbs goal.
3:13This is now becoming a team goal where they enter the fourth quarter and they're looking around and being like, wait, has Gibbs scored a touchdown yet?
3:21Oh, no. We need to get Gibbs' touchdown so that he breaks the record, which I believe is 32 total touchdowns by the Dainley and Talaminson.
3:28Now, obviously, Gibbs has an extra game to get it done.
3:32So, but yeah. I mean, that's when we pull back, right?
3:35He's like, well, we broke the record. Now we got to cash out.
3:39Well, I mean, you're sitting at four and a half and it's going to be like minus 200 something this week.
3:45I didn't even look. It's usually between, I've seen it as juiced up as 400.
3:49And then sometimes you get it, get a value at 300 or 275 or something along those lines.
3:54Again, you can also boost it if sometimes you get that opportunity, but usually those are also capped too.
4:00So, I mean, the four and a half units potentially can move to seven, maybe max, like probably more like six units.
4:06And then we're really going to be talking. So, let's hope he scores.
4:10We continue the Jameer Gibbs touchdown rollover. Five weeks of it by week last week.
4:15We step back into it. So, we step into a better week.
4:18We step into some Jameer Gibbs touchdowns. And hopefully we can step into some banked props.
4:23So, let's jump into it. We've got five props a piece, 10 total.
4:26Then we'll talk about some touchdowns. Eric, so why don't you kick us off with your first prop for week seven?
4:33Going with Kyron Williams over 60 and a half rushing yard.
4:36I really wanted to attack this slate with Kyron Williams.
4:39I think there's like a little bit of a not squeaky wheel, but hey, I'm really good.
4:44Give me the ball type of wheel narrative going with Kyron Williams, who was kind of vocal after not seeing the ball
4:50enough times in the Rams loss to the Arizona Cardinals, where Rams offense that kind of looked out of sync erratic.
4:56And when they asked Kyron after the game, like, you know, why couldn't the offense get in rhythm?
5:01He's like, well, I'm not out there. So, that's one of the issues.
5:05Like, I'm not getting the rock. I'm not getting the ball.
5:08So, we know Sean McVay and Kyron, like that Kyron is this guy.
5:12He always takes care of him. There were reports this off season that they had meetings about getting him more involved in
5:19the passing game, which has been very apparent throughout the season.
5:22Like he is putting up career highs in terms of his receiving usage.
5:26And you have a Rams offense that's banged up, right?
5:29Looking for answers. John Adams is not going to play.
5:32Pukunukua left practice on Thursday with a calf injury.
5:34So TBD on whether he's going to play in this game or not.
5:38But regardless, I think that means we're going to see more of Kyron Williams in a really juicy matchup against the Raiders,
5:44who are allowing the second most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
5:48114 rushing yards allowed per game. So, originally I was willing to go to the rushing attempts for Kyron Williams.
5:54He'd gone over 14 and a half carries in three of his last four games.
5:59But I just think it's just going to be, I'm going to attack the rushing yardage here, not mess around with any
6:05type of split he has with Blake Corum. I just think that he has an opportunity to really produce against a bad Raiders run defense.
6:12And if you look at last year in the three games he played without Devontae Adams in the lineup, he had 23
6:19carries in the first game that Devontae Adams missed.
6:21The yardage in those three games, 70 yards, 92 yards and 60 yards.
6:25So I'm feeling pretty good. I took the over on his attempts too, but for the sake of the show, I figured
6:32I felt most comfortable about the props and the prop at cheat sheet also gave this the highest star rating versus the
6:38rushing attempts, especially because the rushing attempts also moved.
6:41It was at 13 and a half. And I looked at it earlier, moved up to 14 and a half.
6:47So didn't like that as much just because, Hey, we're trying to get the best numbers here.
6:52So 60 and a half rushing yards was the one that I liked the most.
6:56And if you look at the rent running backs, the Raiders have faced 95 yards, James Cook, Stevenson, 64, Ken Walker, 177,
7:02HN 57, 94 to O'Marion Hampton, all overs for the last five running backs that they've played.
7:07Love it. All right. I am going with some low hanging fruit, but this was one that Erickson text me about after he saw it on the sheet.
7:15And I thought it was really funny because it was like, you're like, I want it.
7:20This needed to be on the sheet. And if you didn't do it, you were going to force me to do it.
7:27And I was like, well, why didn't you put it on here?
7:30But this, this doesn't have a lot of data back to it because this guy hasn't played in two years.
7:36We are absolutely hammering the over on a tank Dell receiving yard prop.
7:40This is not his longest reception prop, by the way, this is his receiving yards.
7:448.5 over and he hasn't played in two years, but he has been a favorite target of CJ Stroud four years and
7:50the better, the, you know, better pros, the, the cheat sheet.
7:54It doesn't really have like a big support for it.
7:57It's around eight. I don't think anything or anybody really knows what to do with it.
8:01But, you know, if you do go and stare at game logs, like when he has been active prior to this, which again, the landscape is so different.
8:09Nico has taken over. They've got Marv, you know, they've gotten all, but he's never gone under this prop at 8.5 yards when he's active, his longest reception.
8:18He has never had a longest reception under eight.
8:20Nine is actually the absolute lowest. So this is the peak bottom.
8:24And I'll tell you this, I don't expect him to play a full snap share.
8:28I think that's, they're also like robust with wide receivers.
8:31But what I do expect is when he is out there, it is going to be in a design where Stroud is going to be looking for him.
8:39And that even if it is a singular catch, I think you and I might've joked about this, that there might be
8:46like, Oh, what do you think the one catch prop was?
8:49And I think I had said, it's going to be two like, no, they're not going to give you a 0.5 over.
8:55They're going to give you a 1.5 and it'll be heavily juiced.
8:59That is exactly what's happening. But one catch he's going to go over this.
9:03So it's a little bit low hanging fruit here, but tank Dell, if back expectation is back.
9:08Even if it's low snap counts, he just route is going to find him in stride for an over 8.5 receiving, uh, for a catch.
9:15And I'll tell you the one, my one dumb prop that did hit last week was my very first prop I dropped on here.
9:22And this is kind of my level of confidence.
9:25So you just want to throw anything else in because you put a little LFG next to this.
9:30You text me about it. Like, why didn't you have the cojones to lock this in here?
9:35Why were you so glad that I did it?
9:38Well, because you were the one cause you've been the tank Dell guy for the most part, whether it's on the fantasy
9:44pro shows and I want to see him succeed.
9:47So you can be happy. And I do have a couple of thoughts and a couple of nuggets.
9:52I wanted to list because this is definitely a squad ride with tank Dell because when tank tells back on the field, we all win.
9:59Let's be honest, right? Everyone wants to see this guy succeed after what he did and coming back from this devastating, I
10:06mean, multiple injuries that he had, you know, the broken fibula and then the knee injury, just absolutely devastating, missing all of last year.
10:13For him to come back and be like, dude, I'm just excited to be on the field again.
10:18Right? Like that's what he's been saying is press conferences.
10:21So a couple of points about Dell. So I know you mentioned basically how he's never really been under nine and a half receiving yards.
10:28So over his first two seasons in the NFL, he generated explosive reception or 15 or more yards on 5.3% of his routes run.
10:35That was 17th highest among receivers with at least 500 routes run over that span.
10:39He recorded over a thousand receiving yards on downfield receptions, 10 plus air yards.
10:44That was 28th most during that span to coach speak again.
10:47Shout out Greg Brandos from the coach speak index.
10:49This is what to me. Go Ryan said about tank Dell and kind of what will the play workload be like?
10:56It's a feel as we get into the game.
10:58There's no expectation. Like tank has to hit a certain play number for me getting tank back out there after missing two
11:05years of football is the main thing. Him just going out there playing ball.
11:09I don't care how many reps he gets. I'll have my tank Dell jersey on on Sunday.
11:14This is the head coach who underneath his Texans gear is going to be wearing a tank Dell.
11:19You're telling me first snap he's not out there.
11:21They're not looking to get him the ball 15 deep.
11:24And then the last point, and this actually shouts out one of the tools on the betting pros site, our sharp money tool.
11:31Sharps are backing tank Dell over at half a reception at months 186.
11:35So that's based on the prediction market liquidity 2.5 K.
11:38That's what the prediction market suggests suggesting that people are backing the tank Dell over again.
11:43We like the over especially him to keep. We know he's going to catch at least one pass.
11:48Feel pretty confident about that. So if you can find that number out there, even if it's a heavy juice, I know
11:54underdog looks like has it listed at minus 179.
11:57But I think, yeah, dude, I think he's going to catch pass and it's going to be over 10 yards.
12:03We're in. We're locked. If you want to play the the dual, you are going to it's like plus 170 range that
12:09you're seeing in a lot of spots. If you want to play the two receptions, if you want to live in that world.
12:16But 8.5, 9.5. I mean, those are the numbers you're looking at.
12:19We are officially locked in here at 8.5. But I would just give you guys a suggestion that you can go over
12:26to betting pros and you can check out the the prop analyzer.
12:29And it's going to show you where all of the odds are on every single spot for these props.
12:35So if you want to play the reception yards, you can go in.
12:39You can scroll through and you can see. I actually see you want your best.
12:43I gotta be honest with you. I should be able to lock this in.
12:47There's a 6.5. I see a 6.5 on this bad boy.
12:50I see a 7.5 and 8.5. We'll play at 8.5.
12:53Tank Dell. You go do that. Receiving yards over is the play.
12:57And not just the analyzer is going to help you out, but the prop cheat sheet.
13:01So you can find the best NFL player prop bets with the betting pros prop cheat sheet.
13:06Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to undercover the props offering the most value.
13:12Make smart prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props.
13:16That's bettingpros.com slash props. All right, Erickson. Number two for you for the week.
13:20What do you got? This one's a five star bet courtesy of the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet.
13:25Kyler Murray under 30 and a half pass attempts.
13:28Past attempts prop did not work out last week with Michael Penix.
13:31Although I feel like the process was sound and he really just got there in the fourth quarter when they just start
13:38slinging the ball because the Bears play a lot of bully ball.
13:41So I feel confident going back to the past attempts.
13:44This has usually been really profitable with the prop bet cheat sheet.
13:48Kyler Murray's only gone over this number one time in his three starts so far this season where he has played the full game.
13:55The quarterback likes to scramble. So that automatically takes out some of the passing attempts for his season or for the for the game.
14:02Only one quarterback this year has attempted more than 31 passes against the Colts.
14:06And that was in the Chiefs Patrick Mahomes game when that went into overtime.
14:10So took extra innings for a quarterback to really go heavily above 31 pass attempts.
14:14And you look at the Colts defense, their 30 second EPA per rush face this season.
14:19So I don't know exactly how the Vikings will attack the Colts defensively.
14:23I just know however they do it. It's going to be really efficiently because the Colts defense has just been bad like
14:29a bottom five defense overall, whether you look at from a run standpoint there, we look at from a past standpoint.
14:35I think the Vikings kind of pick and choose how they want to attack it.
14:40And the fact that they're getting their running backs healthy toward Mason is coming back from injured reserve.
14:45They have Aaron Jones. I think maybe they do lean on the ground game a little bit here and not force Kyler
14:51Murray to drop back 31 times, especially when I don't take the Colts off.
14:55It's going to generate that much against Brian Flores defense.
14:58So Minnesota has been bottom eight and pass rate and pass rate over expectations so far this season.
15:04You look at the past attempts against the Colts.
15:06Cam Ward 22, Rogers 31, Marcus Mariota got hurt in that game.
15:10So Stroud 27, Mahomes 47 is the big one that stands out, but even like the Mar Jackson at 25.
15:16So I like the under here. Someone once said, everybody's got a plan to get punched in the mouth.
15:21I did Mike Tyson. Well, your mobile plan is punching you in the mouth with prices that can knock you out.
15:27But you can switch to boost with a plan that's $25 a month forever.
15:31Boost mobile. What's your plan? With ChatGPT, you can do more than get answers.
15:35You can get things done. Whether you're leading a big project, planning an elaborate trip or trying to balance work and life, ChatGPT can help.
15:43Give it a goal plus things like files, notes or project plans.
15:46Develop a trip itinerary with daily updates or create a prioritized schedule.
15:50So you can spend less energy sorting out the details and more on bringing your biggest ideas to life.
15:55Get started at ChatGPT.com. This is Pat Fitzmaurice. I hope you enjoy this episode of the show, which is sponsored by Accredited Debt Relief.
16:02Accredited Debt Relief specializes in one thing, helping you find a real workable solution to your debt.
16:07Dealing with debt can be exhausting. They are here to step in and give you real options that will immediately lower your
16:14monthly payments and reduce the total amount of debt you owe.
16:17If you're struggling, you're not alone. Go to AccreditedDebtRelief.com and in just two minutes, you can sign up for a free consultation
16:23and take the first step to becoming debt-free. Not all creditors or debts qualify.
16:27Fees apply and vary. Services are available where permitted.
16:30All right. I am going to be playing another over and I'm going to Trey Tucker.
16:35Going to boy Trey Tucker going up against the Rams, which is a tougher matchup.
16:39This is 40.5 on the receiving yards. This is right at projections on betting pros.
16:43So there's not really like a heavy lean they can give us.
16:47So there's no big star graded out rating, but I'm going to be taking the over which he has hit in five straight games.
16:54Also, I love this tool on betting pros. You can check out the comparable players versus the Rams because I mean Rams secondary is pretty strong.
17:02That's there's not a big plus as far as like grading out that this is going to work in favor for.
17:08But what I do expect is I expect the Rams are going to be out for blood and I expect, you know,
17:14I say I expect but like if Puka Takua is out, maybe this is going to be a different game.
17:20But if the Rams are running with the lead on this, you know, three straight loss Raiders team and they're reeling a
17:26little bit, they are going to be passing and Brock Bowers is going to have a lot of coverage towards him.
17:32But if you look at the comparable comparable player tool on fantasy pros or betting pros, excuse me, versus the Rams, all
17:39six wide receivers that are locked in on that comparable side have gone over the receiving prop against the Rams.
17:45So five straight for him. It's a low total at 40.5 seven wide receivers that have faced the Rams have gone at
17:51least over this receiving yard prop every single game except one one wide wide receiver not tight end but one wide receiver
17:58has gone over this receiving prop as well. The only game was the Eagles and that has been a struggle every other game.
18:04They have gone over a wide receiver has gone over this.
18:07In fact, the 49ers think in week one had three wide receivers that hit this prop.
18:12So it's a low hanging number for Trey Tucker who's kind of played like a pseudo number one.
18:17So I really like this one for Trey Tucker to go over 40.5 receiving yards.
18:22All right, let's go into prop number three for each of us.
18:25This is going to be number five total here in Erickson.
18:28You are living up to your undertaker moniker. Another under for you.
18:32I'm going back to the Giants backfield, hopefully to find better success this week.
18:36Tyrone Tracy under 25 and a half rushing yards.
18:39So we're not exactly sure how this Giants backfield is going to shake out, although the tea leaves are really pointing strongly
18:45towards a Cam Scadaboo type of bounce back here.
18:48Now, I'm not brave enough to take the over on Cam Scadaboo and whatever his rushing yards or rushing attempts props are
18:54because they've probably been nuked compared to his season long ones.
18:57But all the reports out of the Giants training this week have been that, yeah, like Scadaboo is back in the RB1 chair.
19:04Except the light. I don't know if you saw the light.
19:07I mean, it'd catch up. But there was like one report that came out like a couple hours ago that was like
19:14he is still in the doghouse and that they are going to be looking at acquiring a running back, which I think was kind of silly.
19:21Like why? You know, like, I mean, I guess they're top of the division.
19:25But just to throw that as a little side because I'm the dummy that's been on all our networks like Cam Cam's going to bounce back.
19:33And he he took accountability for it. And there's a report out there that like the accountability don't mean nothing.
19:39But I just wanted to throw that out there.
19:41Regardless, it's a backfield that we're not exactly sure what's how it's going to shake out.
19:46Right. There's a lot of question marks about who's going to see what now.
19:50Could it be again? I think it's going to be Scadaboo that's going to be back in the lead, not to the
19:57extent that he's a full blown workhorse, but he'll lead the backfield.
20:00Tyron Tracy will mix in. Devin Singletary will probably mix in, too, just based on kind of what we saw last week.
20:07But last week we saw Tyron Tracy lead the backfield in terms of his carries, but he was very underwhelming in terms
20:13of what he actually did on the ground. He had six carries for 18 yards, right?
20:18And a rushing touchdown. He didn't even leave the team in snaps.
20:21That was Devin Singletary. Now, part of that had to do with them playing in comeback mode in the second half of the game.
20:28But I think in a backfield committee, that's a total mess in a matchup that's really brutal.
20:33I just want to fade this backfield into oblivion.
20:36So the Texans are allowing the seventh fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
20:40Second fewest yards per carry this season overall at 3.4.
20:43They've only allowed 10 rushing attempts of 10 plus yards.
20:46Dead last in rushing yards over expectation per attempt allowed.
20:49Fifth fewest rushing yards allowed before contact. I mean, Tyron Tracy hasn't necessarily been that good when he's had the opportunities so far this season.
20:56And when you look at the combined efforts of those running backs that got to play last week, not Cam Scadaboo, you
21:03had 14 carries for 34 yards in week six.
21:05So when Tyron Tracy was previously in the committee with Cam Scadaboo earlier in the season, when he had his rushing prop
21:12listed, it was more around 15.5, 16.5 yards. I feel like that's what his number should be closer to.
21:17Just based on if we get to see something similar to what we saw to start the year where Cam Scadaboo is
21:24the lead or the 1A, Tyron Tracy kind of mixing as a 1B.
21:28So just given the matchup is totally brutal, the fact that Tyron Tracy really hasn't been that efficient, he's only averaged, I
21:34believe, 3.1 yards per carry this season. I mean, there's a chance that there's no run game and no running back can be successful.
21:41And that's why they want to trade for another running back because nobody on this team is actually going to make a difference.
21:48So 25.5 rushing yards is high enough for me where I feel good taking the under in a tough matchup.
21:54All right, we are going to jump over to Geno Smith for my prop.
21:58Oh, yes, Geno Smith. Passing yards. Geno Smith passing yards over 220.
22:01Why? We are picking on the Miami Dolphins as you do and as you can pick on the Dolphins.
22:07Geno Smith has hit this in three of his last five.
22:10The Dolphins have given up the passing yard prop to quarterbacks in three of their last four, going 240 plus on each one of those.
22:17There's actually also a couple lines on a couple spots of like 240 floating around for Geno Smith.
22:23So that might be played up just a little bit to monitor where that could be heading into the near future.
22:29But, I mean, the Dolphins grades have been bad.
22:31The Dolphins 30th of 32 against quarterbacks as far as like pass coverage go.
22:35They really struggle on tight ends and running backs.
22:38Not necessarily, you know, the spot that we want the Dolphins struggle with that.
22:42We want Geno Smith to be just peppering Garrett Wilson and Omar Cooper.
22:46But if Braylon Allen and Brees is back, that's still a good thing.
22:50Sadiq can make some big plays. And this is a relatively low number.
22:53And another fun fact is the Dolphins have given up 20 completions every single game to quarterback.
22:58So every single quarterback that has played them has completed 20 or more passes.
23:03When Geno Smith this season completes 20 more passes, he smashes this number.
23:06He smashes this passing yard total. So 20 or 220.5.
23:09So essentially 221 on the over. That's where I'm going to go with this bad boy.
23:14Geno Smith on the passing yards. Three up, three down for both of us.
23:18We've got our final two coming up here in a second.
23:21But let's talk about our friends over at Polymarket.
23:24Basketball season is here and a new way to trade on it is the new prediction market called Polymarket.
23:29Polymarket is a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports.
23:33Buying in and selling out on your terms. Polymarket is so confident that you'll never go back to the other guys.
23:39They're giving you a free $25 in your first trade when you deposit just $10.
23:43Every bucket, every block, every matchup in basketball trades on Polymarket.
23:46So download the Polymarket app today and use code FPPOD when you sign up.
23:50That's FPPOD to get $25 free after you deposit just $10.
23:54All right. Our fourth props in. Erickson, can you play an over?
23:57This is one of yours that got squashed a little bit because some injury news out there.
24:02So talk to us about your fourth prop of the week.
24:05National tight ends day is on Sunday. So naturally, we have to be betting some overs on some tight ends.
24:11Tyler Higby over four and a half receptions. This is open to three and a half.
24:16The line has moved because of the injuries to Devontae Adams and obviously Puka Nakua, where when we're recording, we don't know
24:22exactly whether he's going to play or not. So just keep that in mind as we kind of see these numbers move up and down.
24:30But I don't think this is going to a point where it's going to be five and a half receptions.
24:35Maybe his yards will move up. So I still feel pretty good about four and a half receptions for Tyler Higby.
24:41He has three straight games with at least 62 plus receiving yards, three of them since week three.
24:47Excuse me. And he has four catches in four straight games, five plus catches and 62 plus yards and three of them since week three.
24:54Now, last week was when he got outproduced by Kobe Parkinson.
24:57Parkinson actually was the more productive of the two Rams tight ends.
25:01And there's actually a lot of sharp money on the over with Kobe Parkinson as well.
25:05But I think that they're missing the narrative here with Tyler Higby actually having the better usage in the Rams offense.
25:12So even though Parkinson was more productive, when you look at who was running the majority of the routes and who was
25:18playing more snaps, it was actually Tyler Higby. So I actually like him a little bit more in this matchup.
25:24His route participation hit a season high at 78%.
25:26Meanwhile, Parkinson was at 53%. So although Parkinson probably is a better bet for like an anytime touchdown in this Rams offense,
25:33I think just from my reception standpoint, especially against the Raiders, Las Vegas allowed the third most catch to tight ends of this season.
25:40Higby has been kind of Matthew Stafford's check down guy over the last month.
25:44Again, four catches in four straight games. And I think that continues with the compromise at the wide receiver position.
25:50All right. My number four, it's going to be a funny one because I was poking at you all week about Bo
25:56Nix and more about Jalen Waddell was more of what it was about.
26:00We've had a lot of Bo Nix conversations from fantasy pros on the rank side to our tailgate channel with Alfredo Brown.
26:06And I think there's one undeniable thing. Cardinals are a bad secondary.
26:10Um, it's, it's, there's definitely a immovable object force.
26:13There's a, there's a, an accurate, there's a saying in there that I clearly cannot say, but it is a bad Bo Nix and a bad secondary.
26:20And what is going to lay out at the end of the day, Bo Nix has been really, really atrocious, but the Cardinals look at this.
26:28They have given up to, at least two passing touchdowns, two quarterbacks in five straight weeks.
26:33That is a 16 to three touchdown to interception ratio on the year.
26:36The only one was the chargers only one in week one.
26:40Every other week, you've seen a quarterback have multi-touchdown games, but Nix has not been able to do that a whole lot
26:46this season, but this is your get right situation.
26:491.5 over on the passing touchdowns. It's a plus money play right now with all of that coverage from a grading system.
26:55The Cardinals are worse than the dolphins right now.
26:5831 to 32. As far as quarterbacks go, they're not rushing the quarterback whatsoever, which is huge for Bo Nix.
27:04Bo hasn't really been running a whole lot and he's made some bad decisions without any big pass rush.
27:09This is huge. Their wide receiver coverage. Now this has comes back into play with your defensive Jalen Waddle this week.
27:15You were like, where's a Jalen Waddle anytime touchdown?
27:1831 of 32 in wide receiver coverage. They struggle with tight ends.
27:21They struggle with running backs. Cardinals struggle kind of across the board.
27:25This is a potential Bo Nix get right situation.
27:28Maybe the yards aren't going to be there at the end of the day.
27:32Maybe they are going to line up into, you know, having some running backs go, but some good play action in the
27:38Cardinals give it up in the air and two touchdowns, two passing touchdowns for Bo Nix is my play at plus money over 1.5.
27:45I'm going to roll with you guys. I'm going to roll with your, uh, your Bronco love.
27:50It's going to take us to our final props.
27:53I've actually got another Bronco I'm going to talk about here in a second, but you are going to jump back into national tight ends day.
28:00So your final prop before we get to our touchdowns, who is it?
28:04Birthday boy, Pat Fryer, going over 29 and a half receiving arts.
28:08His birthday is on Sunday. It's national tight ends day.
28:10So, I mean, if Aaron Rodgers is going to feed any one of these tight ends, it's going to be Pat Fryer.
28:17But so he's coming off a disappointing game. One of his worst games of the season.
28:22But if you recall Welsh, he was a late addition to the injury report last week.
28:26So I think that he wasn't playing at a hundred percent.
28:29It looked like he actually got banged up towards the end of that game.
28:34Anyway, that being said, the Muth has gone over 29 and a half receiving yards in four of his six games played this season.
28:41And the matchup against the saints is one you want to attack with these tight ends.
28:45They've allowed the third most receiving arts, two tight ends this season.
28:49They have faced seven different tight ends that have all gone over 30 receiving yards.
28:53So it's a really low number. I know that Fryer Muth can be kind of frustrating because he still mixes in with Darnell Washington.
29:00But if you look at the rest of the Steelers, it's DK Metcalf, it's Jeremy Bernard, and then it's the tight ends, right?
29:07They don't really have anyone else. Again, they used to running backs a little bit in the past game as well.
29:13But I think in this specific matchup, this is a spot where Fryer Muth can really thrive.
29:18And the fact that he still was running more routes than Darnell Washington last week, despite the fact that he was banged
29:24up and missed time because of injury. I think that means he's going to be running closer to 70, 80% of the
29:31routes next week in a positive matchup. And it's his birthday, man.
29:34And Rodgers loves birthdays. So Fryer Muth, 30 receiving yards, walk it in.
29:38I love you, a birthday narrative. You need to lock in the birthdays that align to Sundays and just get ready.
29:44We can just have future casting for the bets.
29:47All right. I am going to stick in the Denver Broncos game.
29:50And you can tell me at the end of the day if you like this one or not.
29:56But I'm going to go J.K. Dobbins, and I am going to take my first under of the slate.
30:01Under. I had it at 51, I guess, now that I'm looking over on betting pros.
30:06I am not seeing. No, I see a 51.
30:08I get to lock it in. I still see a 51.5.
30:12So I'm going to keep that even though there's some 50.5s.
30:15And there's a couple of things here. Going up against the Cardinals.
30:18It mentioned the Cardinals defense is bad, but it's really bad in the secondary.
30:22They've actually, I mean, they're averaging about 100 yards given up per game to running backs, which doesn't make you feel great.
30:29But last week against the Rams, they kept both Corum and Kyron Williams under this total number.
30:34They've been able to do that a couple times against running backs.
30:37But also, it's been more primary share guys. Jameer Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, they've ate them up.
30:42But something I want to present to you is if Jonah Coleman is active, I think this is a spot where we
30:48are going to see Peyton bring in Jonah Coleman into the threshold, into the fray of all these guys.
30:54RJ Harvey gets his run. And I'm not confident that you're going to see that lion's share from J.K.
30:59Dobbins. Cardinals, it's not a great matchup also from a grade perspective.
31:03Overall, it's kind of a fair grade overall matchup according to PFF.
31:06Defensive front as far as like missed tackles, they haven't allowed a lot of yards after contact.
31:11Their defensive front doesn't grade super well. But I think this is like the correlative play where I think the Broncos are
31:18going to be able to pass the ball with some success.
31:21You're going to have RJ Harvey in there. And I really think you'll get back to that three back system with how much Peyton had talked.
31:29I remember in the preseason, it was like we don't need to see anything more from Coleman.
31:34We've seen what we've had. He got hurt. He's back into it.
31:37So I think he could take some of that share away.
31:40Dobbins could hurt me with a big play, of course.
31:43But I'm going to go under 51.5 on the rushing yards.
31:46What do you think about Coleman, you know, I don't know, boosting the odds on this, kind of taking away from the other backs?
31:53Or do you think I'm in some scary waters right now?
31:57No, I think you're attacking this game with the right approach.
32:00I think that given the matchup against Arizona Cardinals being really soft, this is an opportunity where how about we build Bo Nix's confidence, right?
32:07And just like let him sling. Because this happens, right?
32:10The NFL quarterbacks don't care who they're throwing touchdowns against.
32:13All I know is I did good. Like I played well.
32:16I don't care what defense it was against. That helps build momentum.
32:20So the fact that Dobbins has been underwhelming in an efficiency standpoint, even if he does see the majority of carries, there's
32:26no guarantee he will even get to 51.5 rushing yards.
32:29So I know we talked about on the ranking show how he's averaging career lows across the board in terms of his
32:35yards per carry yards after contact per attempt, etc.
32:38So I think it makes sense that they would get Jonah Coleman more involved now that he's healthy and ready to go.
32:45RJ Harvey's always going to mix in as well.
32:47So I like someone. And I actually was looking at his rushing attempts as well at 14.5, and I was considering the under on that one.
32:55That was one I was – I left off my card, but it was a – I was looking at Dobbins, and
33:01I was looking to pound some of Zunders. And the last – you know, I didn't even mention this.
33:07I almost forgot coming out of this. He's only gone over this prop once.
33:11Like this number, 50.5. He has only gone over this one game this entire season, and that was against the Chargers.
33:17Yeah, it was the Chargers. It was the only game that he's gone over this.
33:21So Jonah Coleman back. Not a history of it.
33:24I don't care what Peyton's doing. I think it's a little bit more Coleman.
33:28I think we are playing the under. Those are our 10 props.
33:31But we ain't done because it's touchdown time. If you guys are looking for an edge in touchdown bets, our touchdown score
33:38report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets.
33:43Head over to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today.
33:47All right, Erickson, what do we got? It is National Tight Ends Day.
33:51Are you going to keep with the theme? And again, remember, we have only hit tight end touchdowns this year.
33:57That is the only touchdown that we have – and now we've had some good odds on them, by the way.
34:03That's why we like to usually bet them. Anywhere from two to three to one has kind of been the play for tight ends.
34:10So are you going to go with a couple tight ends?
34:13And what are the odds? Not only have we only hit tight ends with our anytime touchdown bets, I have only hit
34:20tight ends the weeks that they've played the Detroit Lions.
34:23With their anytime touchdowns. So that's exactly what I'm doing.
34:25I'm not going to try to shake it up, dude.
34:28Just play the hits, man. Especially when it comes to Tucker Craft on National Tight Ends Day.
34:33He has scored three touchdowns over the last two National Tight End days.
34:37143 yards and two touchdowns last year on seven catches and nine targets in 2024.
34:42National Tight Ends Day, Tucker Craft. Three catches for 78 yards and one touchdown.
34:46What team has allowed more touchdown – or note, what team has allowed those touchdowns to tight ends this season?
34:51It has been the Detroit Lions. So I know they're getting Brian Branch back.
34:56So maybe that will be the reason why Tucker Craft doesn't score a touchdown.
35:00But he just has to beat the guy on one route and he'll score.
35:04So with all the attention on Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Josh Jacobs, Tucker Craft's kind of falling to the wayside a little bit.
35:11But I think Jordan Love on National Tight Ends Day is going to be like, let's get our guy going.
35:17He's coming off the injury from last year. Let's get this guy some yards out to the catch.
35:22So Tucker Craft for me, especially at plus 180 in a game where I'm expecting a lot of scoring.
35:27Obviously, Jameer Gibbs, he's going to score a touchdown.
35:30So I think Tucker Craft is going to score on the other side.
35:34More on that one later. More on Tucker Craft later.
35:37I'm going to join you. Couldn't love that one more.
35:40All right. So that's your kind of like – I don't know what it's called safe play.
35:45But remember, we like to play them between like 1-2-1.
35:47And then we like to have a little bit of a bigger call.
35:51So where's your bigger call? And then just go right back to Pat Frymuth.
35:55I like his receiving yards in this matchup against the Saints.
35:59They've given up a lot of touchdown production as well, just being bad against tight ends in general.
36:04And Pat Frymuth has been involved heavily in the red zone this season.
36:08He has four touchdowns already on the year, five red zone targets.
36:11The Steelers love to target their two tight ends in the red zone.
36:15Him and Darnell Washington have combined for eight end zone targets, 10 red zone targets with six touchdowns total.
36:20So again, it's Pat Frymuth's birthday. I can see it right now.
36:24We're going to be entering 1230. And it's going to be trending on X as Pat Frymuth National Tight Ends Day because
36:30he's going to be playing in the early Paris game.
36:33And I guarantee they're going to be talking about, Oh, did you see Pat Frymuth on National Tight Ends Day in Paris go off?
36:40Yeah, it's going to happen. Maybe we could have another one of those.
36:44Remember when Rodgers threw to like every tight end on the roster?
36:48Remember it was like all three? Like we could have another one of those for National Tight Ends Day.
36:53All right. I like it. I am sticking with at least one of the tight end themes here.
36:58And I don't remember the last time you saw like Trey McBride, like almost the same odds at Tucker Kraft, but plus 140.
37:05I know they obviously haven't got things going, but yeah, not the worst spot here.
37:10Denver Broncos, they're kind of median in general as far as tight end coverage goes, but they have given up touchdowns to
37:16tight ends in three of the last four games.
37:19So a National Tight Ends Day, Trey McBride. Let's get that.
37:22And I also think they're going to be playing from behind and they're going to be passing the ball a whole bunch.
37:28Before you get to your next one, I just want to say the Trey McBride call is so awesome because Trey McBride
37:35called out National Tight Ends Day last year because the Cardinals were on a bye week.
37:39So he didn't even get to celebrate it last year.
37:42So he has a vendetta against National Tight Ends Day.
37:45So yes, guaranteed lock to score this week. Guaranteed lock.
37:48What I also like too is like what we've seen in teams is take their top corners to lock down Michael Wilson
37:54because that's where, and that's where that could think you could start to go like, oh, you know, the Sertanza.
38:00Like, I think you're going to have heavy coverage.
38:03It has to be looked at it with Michael Wilson.
38:06And teams have seen success in shutting him down, shuts everything down.
38:09And then they just have to worry about coverage on McBride.
38:13And I think they're going to be passing the ball a whole bunch.
38:16And, you know, they'll probably go back and forth, but this is a solid matchup for Trey McBride on National Tight Ends Day.
38:23The other one, I guess there's like a slight Homer call to it, but give me Christian Kirk at three and a half to one.
38:30I don't think Mike Evans is going to play.
38:33If he does play, it kind of opens up everything still.
38:36George Kittle is out screaming the good word of Christian Kirk.
38:39Yes, they've got Brandon Cooks. And this team, I've jokingly kind of been talking about him even on tailgate earlier this year.
38:46Like this team is actually optimistic about what he is in the offense.
38:50George Kittle absolutely loves him. I think we are going, based on all the injuries, we are going to see him in those two wide receiver sets.
38:57He's going to get coverage on Purdy. And when they get in the red zone, you're going to have a lot of Atlantic coverage.
39:05It's going to be hovered over Kittle and hovered over McCaffrey.
39:08And if there's no Mike Evans, it's going to be slot work for Christian Kirk.
39:12So three and a half to one Christian Kirk plus 360.
39:15That is my second touchdown on the big play.
39:18So I guess I went away from the National Tight Ends Day.
39:21Last up here, first touchdowns. You've got a big dog here.
39:25Actually, I'm going to get mine out of the way.
39:28You already mentioned him. Everything you said, attach it to Tucker Craft and now put it on the first touchdown.
39:33That's all that it is. All of your amazingly great analysis, I'm lockstep with.
39:37PFF grades Tucker Craft as the number one tight end matchup for this week.
39:42Coverage stinks across the board. So let's just get the first touchdown.
39:45It's I believe I have it at 14 to one.
39:48So Tucker Craft first touchdown 14 to one on National Tight Ends Day.
39:52That's my play. You have a much, much bigger tight end first touchdown call.
39:56Ravens tight end, not Mark Andrews. Can't do that.
39:58Matthew Hibner, 55 to one to score the first touchdown for the Baltimore Ravens.
40:03So for those who aren't familiar, Matthew Hibner is a rookie tight end from SMU.
40:07Big fan. Debro is of Matthew Hibner, as he likes to call him, Matthew Him-ner.
40:11Him-ner. Because he is him. He did score a touchdown earlier this season.
40:15But what I'm encouraged about with Hibner is they heavily use him in the red zone.
40:20If you look at his just total snap percentage this year, he ranks top 15 among all tight ends in terms of snaps inside the 10-yard line.
40:28He missed last week because he had a hand injury, but he's been practicing in full this week.
40:33So I'm expecting him to be back in the lineup.
40:36The Ravens have been using both of their rookie tight ends a little bit more this year because they lost Durham Smythe to a torn Achilles injury.
40:44So it's been him and Josh Quavos that have kind of really stepped in and played 30, 40, 50% of the snaps.
40:50But Hibner was ahead of Quavos before his injury.
40:53If Hibner gets back to around his 50% snap rate, where he was around weeks three and four, he's going to see red zone opportunities.
41:00And when you're facing the Cincinnati Bengals, it's the flow chart, man.
41:04Where do you go when you attack the Bengals?
41:06Like this week, I'm just attacking all the teams I know are bad against tight ends.
41:11That's the Saints. That's the Lions. And that's the Bengals.
41:14Oh my. Okay. We're trying to get right, man.
41:16We're trying to get right. And remember, the first touchdown, you cash your first touchdown, your touchdowns are golden for the season.
41:23You're good for the rest of the year. You're solid.
41:26So 55 to 1. Yeah, 55 to 1. This was the process I followed way back when, when I hit my first touchdown bet, Donald Parham Jr.
41:34for the Los Angeles Chargers. He was playing in a high scoring game.
41:37He was a tight end that had got a lot of red zone snaps.
41:42And I was like, all right, I think there's something here.
41:45So trying to follow the process here with Matthew Hibner.
41:48And he's going to deliver because he's him. All right.
41:51There you go. What are your first touchdown calls?
41:53What are your favorite overall touchdown calls and your best bets?
41:56Drop them in the comments below. Let's see what you got.
42:00Let's track where you're playing it out and see if we can dig ourselves out of a bad week six and just
42:06rock it with week seven with national tight ends day.
42:09That's going to do it for the episode. Make sure you download the betting pros app.
42:14So not only can you track all of your bets, but you can check out all the incredible tools that are going
42:20to help you make the best betting decisions this season.
42:23Make sure you're subscribed on the YouTube as well.
42:26YouTube.com slash betting pros. And that's all that we got for you.
42:29Good luck. Hopefully you guys get some big caches in week seven.
42:33We will talk to you next time right here on betting pros.
42:36Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by
42:43leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify.
42:45Follow us on X and TikTok at betting pros and Instagram at betting pros NFL.
42:50Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash betting pros.
42:53This is Pat Fitzmaurice. I hope you enjoy this episode of the show, which is sponsored by Accredited Debt Relief.
42:59Accredited Debt Relief specializes in one thing, helping you find a real workable solution to your debt.
43:04Dealing with debt can be exhausting. They are here to step in and give you real options that will immediately lower your
43:10monthly payments and reduce the total amount of debt you owe.
43:13If you're struggling, you're not alone. Go to accrediteddebtrelief.com and in just two minutes, you can sign up for a free consultation
43:20and take the first step to becoming debt free.
43:22Not all creditors or debts qualify. Fees apply and vary.
43:25Services are available where permitted. Someone once said everybody's got a plan till they get punched in the mouth.
43:31I did. Mike Tyson. Oh, well, Mike Tyson and Boost are here to tell you that your mobile plan is punching you
43:37in the mouth with prices that can knock you out.
43:40That's a low blow. Totally. But you can do something about it.
43:44You have to punch back. No, Mike. You gotta switch to Boost with a plan that's $25 a month forever.
43:49Oh, that's a great plan. Maybe you can do both.
43:52Boost Mobile. What's your plan? With ChatGPT, you can do more than get answers.
43:56You can get things done. Whether you're leading a big project, planning an elaborate trip, or trying to balance work and life, ChatGPT can help.
44:04Give it a goal, plus things like files, notes, or project plans, develop a trip itinerary with daily updates, or create a
44:10prioritized schedule so you can spend less energy sorting out the details and more on bringing your biggest ideas to life.
44:16Get started at ChatGPT.com. This is an iHeart Podcast.
44:19Guaranteed Human. You're welcome.
