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0:27What's up friends and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:31I am Chris Welsh and I've got two of the brightest and best minds at Fantasy Pros.
0:36And what are we here to talk about? Wait, wait, where?
0:40Oh wait, no, I've got Pat and D-Bro. Sorry, I've got Pat and D-Bro.
0:44Still pretty great. You guys sync that up fantastically, by the way.
0:48Hat tip to both of you. We've got Pat Fitzmaurice, Derek Brown, the King of Bros, D-Bros in the house.
0:54Well, we're going to be talking about some running backs.
0:57We're not going to go insane with tons and tons of ranks, but we're going to get hyper-focused.
1:03We're going to talk about four running backs that these fine gentlemen cannot stop drafting because there's floor, there's upside, they've just got to have them.
1:11And guess what? Their ECRs might be kind of juicy because they are players that are very obtainable.
1:17So we've got four of them to be tackling today.
1:20D-Bro, what's up brother? You ready to talk some running backs?
1:23Hell yeah, Welsh. I mean, this is the sex appeal show, right?
1:27Like it's all in vogue. The year of the running back is back.
1:31Run the dang ball. I mean, passing is out the window in the NFL.
1:35So this is in vogue, right? Like we're stylish here, correct?
1:39Okay. Very interesting take. Pat, I would say, does this show and this conversation make the case why you can get back
1:45into all your early wide receivers and not have to play the early running backs?
1:50This might be the case. It's not like a no running back situation or anything like that, but these are maybe some
1:57of the players that are going to make it a little bit easier for you to tap, you know, wide receiver tight
2:04end for you, Pat, or wide receiver, wide receiver.
2:07What do you say about that? Yes. Value running backs here are the guys we're going to talk about.
2:13Well, I'll send I believe everyone we're going to discuss today has an ECR of RB 20 or later.
2:18Mm-hmm. Okay. So there you have it. You want to get a little bit heavier in the wide receiver streets.
2:25Maybe you want to make sure you're getting yourself a Brock Bowers or something like that.
2:30These are some running backs that might be speaking to you.
2:33If you guys want to join in the conversation, you can go to fantasybros.com slash NFL slash rankings.
2:39You can check out all the rankings we've got going on.
2:42You can look at where these fine gentlemen have everybody.
2:45The expert consensus ranks. I believe we're up over 50 plus rankers that are on there right now.
2:51That's only going to continue growing. And there's lots of other plays.
2:55You can check out the ADP to compare against lots of good fun stuff.
2:59So go and check that out. If you want to follow along, let's jump into it.
3:04We've got four running backs. D bro. We are going to start with you.
3:08Your first running back. He's a guy you can't stop drafting.
3:12He's a value. We're looking best ball versus ECR.
3:14We got the whole thing under the sun. Which running back do people need to know about that?
3:20You are going to be targeting every single time I log in to draft a best ball team, or I'm looking at early ADP.
3:27David Montgomery stands out to me as a massive value.
3:31He's RB 20 and best ball RB 24 and ECR.
3:34And I just think people are forgotten what Joe Mixon did in this exact offense a few years ago in 2020.
3:402024 Mixon was fifth and opportunity share top 15 and snap share 13th and freaking carries.
3:45He finished with 281 touches in that offense. And there's nothing stopping Montgomery from flirting with that number or 300 touches this year.
3:52And he's not washed guys. That's the other part about this.
3:56They look at the age of Montgomery and they say, can he still be in every down back what we saw in Chicago?
4:03I think he can like last year on a per touch basis.
4:07He was still awesome. And Detroit 12th in yards after contact per attempt.
4:11We want to talk about three down skill set and him shoving Woody marks into a clear, just change of pace role,
4:18which I think is going to happen. He was also 22nd in yards per route run 12th and first downs per route run.
4:25Montgomery beat Woody marks on every single per touch efficiency metric last year.
4:29And as well as a pass protector, regardless of whatever you look at Montgomery is a better running back.
4:35I think they're going to ride him into the ground this year, very much similar to Joe Mixon.
4:40And he's a top 15 back for me. I think he's got RB one upside.
4:45If all the things hit. What do you think just real quick before we get Pat's take on this?
4:51What do you think the biggest factor between the best ball and the ECR ranks is why is best ball again?
4:57It's not like a tier difference, but it's, you know, it's closing in on like mid RB two versus the back end of RB two.
5:05Why do you think the best ball ranking differs from his ECR?
5:09I think his people in best ball will push him up a little bit more.
5:14Maybe they're more in line with my thinking and saying he's probably one of the best volume bets that you can make at that part of a draft.
5:22So that pushes him up the board just a little bit versus like ECR and people ranking.
5:28Like you got a lot of other running backs, like however you want to device this up.
5:33Like, do you want to go for upside? Do you want to go for the safe veteran and the volume play and stuff?
5:40So I think some people could be gravitating to younger or potentially sexier names at the low end RB two territory.
5:47And it kind of pushes Montgomery down the board a little bit.
5:50I think volume is a really interesting thing there to best ball.
5:54Maybe, you know, if it's not their first running back or if it is their first, you know, maybe the volume plays
6:01into wanting to take some shots later. Or if it is their second running back, maybe they took a shot a little bit earlier.
6:08So volume seems like it's in play there. Pat, what's your take on David Montgomery here?
6:13Obviously, ECR versus best ball is kind of interesting.
6:16But where do you think he is on the reign of like, you know, value betting a guy that you want to
6:23take and you think experts are going to be taking?
6:26Yeah, if you can wait and get Montgomery, if you do go with a wide receiver heavy approach in the early rounds,
6:33Montgomery is a really nice target in the fifth round or so because there is built in volume for him.
6:39I don't see who's going to challenge him for early down carries in Houston.
6:43And Houston has that great defense, should provide plenty of run friendly game scripts.
6:48And I think he returns value if he just gets five, six, seven touchdowns this year.
6:53The nice thing is there's a path to 10, 11, maybe even more touchdowns than that because he's going to be the goal line guy.
7:01Yeah, touchdown equity seems like it's I've stared at him in his ranking.
7:05And like you look at potential upside, even though he doesn't feel like a quintessential upside play.
7:10It's like touchdown equity seems like it's like a much more of a premium or in the positive side for him.
7:16He was best ball RB 20 ECR 34. Pat, super fascinating.
7:20Your player is the opposite. Best ball 24 RB and then ECR 20.
7:24I know this has been one of the guys you've been talking about, but you're talking about players that not just experts
7:31are drafting, but Pat Fitzmorris, the expert is drafting.
7:34And wanting to have on a lot of teams, that player is who?
7:38It's Bucky Irving. And I don't know if the experts are really drafting him.
7:42Every expert I'm seeing on Twitter is fading Bucky Irving.
7:45My affinity for Bucky is somewhat personal. I was very out on him in going into his rookie year after he ran
7:52a 455 at the combine at 192 pounds. Even though he had two really good seasons to wrap up his college career
7:59at Oregon, even though a lot of the talent evaluators were raving about him, started his rookie year as Rashad White's backup.
8:06But he was getting about a third of the offensive snaps, maybe like nine carries a game.
8:11I wound up picking him up in one of my leagues just before the midpoint of the regular season.
8:17And just before the Buccaneers reduced Rashad White's role and made Bucky their lead back.
8:21I already had a pretty good team and adding Bucky to the mix just gave my team a nitro boost.
8:28From week 10 on, Bucky averaged 115 yards from scrimmage per game, scored five touchdowns.
8:32He was RB 7.5 point PPR scoring over that stretch, right between Chase Brown and Derrick Henry.
8:38Now Bucky's ECR sitting at RB 20 and I think like 54th overall.
8:42That's middle of the fifth round. And I get that Bucky is coming off kind of a rough season.
8:48He had foot and shoulder problems last year, only played 10 games.
8:51He went from 5.4 yards per carry to 3.4.
8:54I really believe the drop off was more about the Buccaneers offensive line than Bucky himself.
8:59Tampa Bay's offensive line just injury ravaged last season.
9:02Tristan Wirfs missed five games. Cody Mock missed 15 games.
9:05Luke Geteke missed six games. Buccaneers O-line had ranked second in the league in adjusted line yards in 2024.
9:11That's a run blocking metric for those not initiated with that stat.
9:15In 2025, they dropped to 22nd in adjusted line yards.
9:18So I acknowledge that the Buccaneers might continue to give Sean Tucker the goal line work.
9:23But Bucky is still Tampa Bay's lead back. And I don't want to hear that Kenneth Gainwell is taking over.
9:29Gainwell averaged 6.7 carries a game for Pittsburgh last year.
9:32And that was a career high. And Bucky Irving is a better pass catcher than Kenneth Gainwell.
9:37Bucky has averaged 1.56 yards per outrun for his career.
9:40Gainwell, 1.19. Bucky, in 2024, led all qualifying backs in yards per carry after contact.
9:45Yards after contact per carry, excuse me. 3.93. Had a breakaway run rate of 34.9%.
9:50Ranked sixth in the league in rushing yards over expected per attempt.
9:53Just ahead of Jameer Gibbs and James Cook. Bucky is a great player.
9:58I can't wait to see what he's going to do with a healthier offensive line that's a very good offensive line when it's intact.
10:05Even in a bad year last year, Bucky averaged 20.3 carries per game.
10:09He is not a committee back. Don't believe that.
10:12That's, yeah, I just, I think he's a really good value right now.
10:16And also, like, you use the word healthy is really interesting because I think there was just a lot of health questions
10:23that were just following him and the valuation of what people wanted to put on him.
10:28But, like, he's already running practices. You know, like, he's out.
10:31Like, that I think is one of the biggest things to be an eye-opener because I think you would almost have the
10:38conversation of, like, you know, do you really want to focus more on the injury?
10:43Or do you want to focus more on the other running backs that are there?
10:47Or what is going to take away? I'm just not sure a healthy Bucky Irving can be taken off the field at
10:54a dramatic degree that drops his value. So he does seem like a really good value.
10:59But, Debro, you've been shaking your head. You're not in full agreement.
11:03Obviously, there's roles. Kenny Gainwell could play a passing role.
11:06Sean Tucker can play a goal line role. But does that not make Bucky Irving still a top 20 running back?
11:12Does that take him out of being a top 20 running back?
11:16What say you? I think the – I really love Pat's point about the offensive line last year because it was decimated.
11:23They couldn't block anybody. They couldn't keep Baker Mayfield upright.
11:26I think this offense could definitely bounce back this year.
11:29My biggest concern about Bucky Irving, like, I – and to Pat's point, yes, Bucky has been the superior receiver to Gainwell over his career.
11:37Gainwell kind of closed the gap with the usage and stuff last year, 1.44 yards per route run.
11:43Them bringing him in off the street. And we've seen Rashad White factor into this backfield in both seasons.
11:49My worry for Bucky is if Gainwell can just be Rashad White but actually be better than Rashad White, which is kind
11:55of a low bar to clear because Rashad White's never been efficient in his entire NFL career, even his massive, like, RB1 season that hasn't been the case.
12:04Then I worry about Gainwell carving more of a role than what we saw previously for Rashad White.
12:10But I do think Bucky will still retain the lead back role.
12:13My worry – my bigger worry for Bucky Irving is the injuries.
12:17Like, and it's – I don't want to ding him, and I didn't ding him coming out because we're living in a
12:24new era of the NFL where if you're sub 200 pounds, it used to be, like, a really big knock on you
12:31as a prospect and looking at your – you know, you're projecting your volume forward.
12:36But then we had Jameer Gibbs, Austin Eckler says hi, Devon Achan, other players of that size to where they've been given runs of backfield.
12:43But those guys have held up to the volume.
12:46And Bucky, I mean, even looking at last year, he had a foot sprain, a shoulder, AC joint sprain.
12:52You rewind to 2024. Hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues.
12:55And the thing that kind of got buried in all of that was the toe issue seemed like it wasn't a short-term thing.
13:02It's something he's dealt with since college and might deal with on and off his entire NFL career.
13:08So the size kind of is showing up for Bucky Irving.
13:11Can he stay healthy? And those health concerns are what pushes me with Bucky Irving down the trough just a little bit
13:18versus other running backs in that range. But depending on how my team make up and stuff like that, am I willing
13:25to draft Bucky Irving at some spots? Because he could be a massive value if he can stay healthy.
13:31Yeah, it's possible. Conversation is going to be very interesting over the next month, how this starts to transpire around Bucky Irving.
13:38But just remember, Pat was there first. We got two more running backs coming up.
13:42But the running backs we're talking about today are values because, you know, they're simply too cheap.
13:48But that only matters if you know when to take them.
13:51With draft intel, you can see how your league mates have drafted in the past.
13:56Spot, who tends to push running backs up the board, and build a plan around your actual draft room.
14:02So before you assume one of these running back values is going to fall back to you and follow our ECR, make
14:09sure you go to fantasypros.com slash intel. That's fantasypros.com slash intel.
14:12Use draft intel and know when you need to make your move.
14:16D-Bro, we're jumping back to you for your second running back value that you're drafting all over the place.
14:22And this is the lowest of, whether it's best ball or ECR, this is the lowest of any of the running backs
14:28values that we have on the board. And you, my friend, want to give us a little Tony Pollard.
14:34So why don't you drop it for us why Tony Pollard is a RB value that you're drafting this season?
14:41He is an RB3 across best ball and ECR, RB31 on both of those different iterations of rankings and ADP and stuff.
14:47And I don't understand why. Like, I'm not worried about Tajay Spears.
14:51Tajay Spears, we haven't seen him be ultra efficient.
14:54We haven't seen him be able to stay on an NFL field.
14:58And you look at what Brian Dayball, the new OC for the Titans, has done in his entire career as an offensive coordinator or a head coach.
15:06He rides one running back religiously. You can go all the way back to Devin Singletary, even before that Peyton Hillis.
15:13We can talk about Saquon. We can talk about when Cam Scadaboo before the injury.
15:17You can talk about Tyrone Tracy before that and Devin Singletary before Tyrone Tracy took his job.
15:23It has been one running back, and it's going to be one running back in Tennessee this year.
15:28And that guy is going to be Tony Pollard.
15:31So I don't understand why he's not an RB2 in rankings.
15:34I get that he had a disappointing season. But again, we all think that Tennessee is going to improve this year.
15:41The question is how much? We're discussing an offense that crushed Pollard because he couldn't score any freaking touchdowns.
15:47He was 49th in red zone touches. This offense was bottom three in points per game and red zone scoring attempts per game.
15:54Those numbers are going up with better play from Cam Ward.
15:57The addition of Carnell Tate. The addition of Wanda Robinson.
16:01Calvin really hopefully being healthy. And if he can't do it, then Ellic Amann or Shamiri Dike can hopefully step up there.
16:07And an improved defense. And quietly, I don't think that people understand that this offensive line, while I'm not telling you this
16:14offensive line is going to be a top 12 unit this year, they were close to that last year in run blocking.
16:21This offensive line had the 13th best yards before contact per attempt last year.
16:25And that is also without like fielding a competent passing attack.
16:29If they do that this year, they could be top 10 in that metric.
16:33And then we're discussing they're opening up consistent holes for Tony Pollard in an improved offense.
16:38He owns the backfield. He wasn't washed last year amongst 49 qualifying backs.
16:42He was 22nd in yards after contact per attempt.
16:45So I keep drafting Tony Pollard. And at this price point, I will continue to draft Tony Pollard because he's an RB3 who is really an RB2.
16:53Although nobody seems to put respect on his name.
16:56Pat, is this though? I mean, Debra's making a great case here.
17:00But the thing that maybe still floats out there is like, is Tony Pollard going to be the guy?
17:06Unquestioned player. Because if you do believe that, I think it is hard to not look at like him outside the top
17:1330 as being a great value if he's going to be untouched in that offense.
17:17Is that what you believe? Or do you think there's bigger questions around Tony Pollard and him usage as an RB1 in his office?
17:25I think he's the guy. And we saw how well he played down the stretch last year when the Tennessee passing game finally got going.
17:33That was the key. They just, Debro said it, they couldn't get anything going early in the year.
17:38So even though Pollard had the backfield to himself with TyJ Spears on IR, it was a rough start.
17:44But then gets it going late in the season once Cam Ward starts cooking a little bit.
17:49Rattles off three straight 100-yard rushing games late in the season.
17:53Also, the schedule was kind of sneaky tough last year.
17:56During that slow start, he had the Texans twice, the Rams, the Jaguars.
18:00Some really good run defenses. And yeah, I think things set up pretty nicely for Pollard this year.
18:06He's in a better spot. All right, final running back we're going to be talking about.
18:11ECR just as an RB2, both the same overall Fantasy Pros expert consensus rank and best ball rank.
18:16DeAndre Swift. Interesting name. I wasn't sure that we were going to get in here.
18:21And Pat, that is your guy. So the RB2 of values.
18:24You went from Bucky Irving to DeAndre Swift. Talk to us about why you're going to be drafting him a whole bunch
18:31and why he is such a great RB value.
18:34Because, Welsh, I think it's rarely a bad idea to attach yourself to the NFL's best play callers.
18:39And Bears head coach Ben Johnson might be the best running game designer in the league.
18:44The Bears were third in rushing yardage last year.
18:47They averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a team, which also ranked third.
18:51They were third in rushing DVOA, only behind the Rams and the Bills.
18:55Ben Johnson also had the running game humming when he was in Detroit as their offensive coordinator for three years.
19:02The Lions ranked 12th, 4th, and 2nd in rushing DVOA during Johnson's tenure as the OC.
19:07And Ben Johnson likes to run the ball. The Bears were 11th in terms of highest percentage of running plays last season.
19:13Swift had 1,386 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns.
19:16He was RB15 in half-point PPR scoring. He catches passes.
19:19The Bears have a good offensive line. They have Ben Johnson as that run game mastermind.
19:24Swift is RB23 in ECR 57 overall. And look, I'm a Kyle Menongai fan.
19:29I think he's good, but he's not going to displace DeAndre Swift.
19:32It's going to be a two-way backfield in Chicago, but the Bears are going to be among the league leaders in total
19:39running back output because of Ben Johnson. So that's where I was going to go with you, D-Bro, was like, are we forgetting?
19:46What about Kyle Menongai? Are we forgetting about him?
19:49He has an ECR of 33, but the ending there is where Pat kind of put the icing on the cake.
19:56Yes, it can be tough sometimes, maybe just on the surface level looking at the Bears and you're like, can both of these guys eat?
20:03I was going to say, are one of these two players, DeAndre Swift at 23 or Kyle Menongai at 33, too overly ranked?
20:11But if you believe this is going to be a very run-heavy offense, both of these guys are going to be able
20:17to eat and be serviceable as either an RB2 or a flex.
20:21So talk to us about Kyle Menongai as well attached to DeAndre Swift here, this offense, and can they both thrive?
20:28I think they can both thrive if they stay as run-heavy as they are, which I think with Ben Johnson, it's going
20:35to be at least league average with passing rates.
20:37So I think you're still going to get plenty of rushing volume here.
20:41I think Menongai is appropriately priced, maybe a tad bit overpriced.
20:45I think Swift is criminally underpriced. He was RB16 in PPR points per game.
20:49Even after Menongai's emergence after week nine, he was still RB20 in fantasy points per game.
20:54And so if we see, and he bested Menongai in every single per-touch efficiency metric out there.
20:59Missed tackle rate, explosive run rate, rushing success rate, everything.
21:03So I don't think Swift is going away. And I think at this low-end RB2, RB23 price tag, he's underpriced.
21:09And I'm going to be drafting him too. I agree with Patty here.
21:13Beautiful from DeAndre Swift, Pollard, Dave Montgomery, and Bucky Irving laid the groundwork for four RB values.
21:18Four RB values that you don't have to put a top 20 tag on.
21:22You can get later in drafts. Build your team up.
21:26Build your wide receivers. Build your tight ends. Make one of these guys an RB2 and in some cases some great RB3s.
21:32What do you guys think though? Do you think these are great values?
21:36And if not, what values are you guys looking at?
21:40Put in the comments below. We'd love to hear from you.
21:43You guys want to check out all the rest.
21:46Go to fantasypros.com slash NFL slash rankings to check out what all the rankings look like as they change throughout the season.
21:53And check out all the great stuff that Pat and Debro have going on here at Fantasy Pros.
21:58Thanks so much for hanging out. I'm Chris Welsh.
22:01We will talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
22:05Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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