Identifying the Next Breakout RB1s | Running Backs with MASSIVE Upside (Ep. 2055)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 8 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 15, 2026
Published
Mon, June 15, 2026
34
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Bucky IrvingD'Andre SwiftCam AkersJaylen WarrenDavid MontgomeryJeremiyah LoveQuinshon JudkinsKyle MonangaiKenneth GainwellRhamondre StevensonRico Dowdle
Player analysis
Player insights
Bucky Irving
PositiveProjection0:10
Irving is ranked RB19-20 and is the analyst's favorite relative to consensus ranking, with strong upside as an RB2 with RB1 potential.
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:11
Irving appears healthy and ready for Week 1 after Todd Bowles' cryptic comments about his return timeline; he was recently seen running around in OTAs.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:11
From Week 10 through the Buccaneers' playoff loss, Irving averaged 111.6 yards from scrimmage per game with 6 touchdowns in 9 games, including one game where he only played 10 snaps due to injury.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:12
Irving is explosive and a good pass catcher with significantly better yards per route run than Kenneth Gainwell, making him the superior pass-catching option despite Gainwell competition.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:13
Irving is a 'really good bet for 1,400, 1,500 total yards' despite potential competition for goal-line and third-down work from Sean Tucker and Kenneth Gainwell.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:14
Irving represents good value at RB19-20 with upside not reflected in consensus draft sentiment, which views him as having low upside but high bust risk.
Insight pageCam Akers
PositiveProjection0:07
Akers is ranked RB20 (previously RB19) as an RB2 with RB1 potential, coming off a gruesome injury but showing positive recovery signs.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:08
In six games between his first two games as a rookie, Akers averaged 19.5 touches per game with 5 touchdowns, serving as the goal-line back for the Giants with high-value touches.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:08
Akers suffered a severe open dislocation with tibia fracture and ligament damage, though he is expected to be ready for the season and has shown physical toughness in recovery.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:09
If healthy and the workload remains intact under new coaching staff (John Harbaugh, Matt Nagy, Greg Roman), Akers has a reasonable chance to reach RB1 range.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveProjection0:21
Swift is ranked RB22 and has maintained a high floor throughout his six-year career, finishing as an RB2 every season with finishes ranging from RB15 to RB23 in half-PPR scoring.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:21
Swift finished as RB15 last year and has consistently finished between RB15-RB23 across his six-year career, showing a high floor and potential for upward movement in Ben Johnson's offense.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:22
Swift has RB1 potential in Ben Johnson's offense, which ranked 3rd in rushing DVOA last year and has consistently produced elite rushing offenses across Johnson's tenure.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:22
Swift is likely to remain an RB2 alongside Kyle Monongai in a two-man backfield, with RB1 potential only materializing if Monongai gets injured.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:24
If Kyle Monongai were injured in late August, Swift would rank between RB7-RB10, ahead of players like Kenneth Walker, O'Marion Hampton, and Devon Henry.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:24
Swift gave an RB1-adjacent season last year and has room for upside even without reaching full RB1 status, as he finished RB15 with Monongai having a strong season.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveProjection0:33
Montgomery is well-positioned to average 15 carries per game and add pass-catching work for the Texans, with the best chance in this RB24 range to have a 14-touchdown season.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:34
Montgomery is ranked RB24 and has the opportunity to get as many carries as he can handle with Woody Marks not impressing, positioning him for potential goal-line scoring opportunities.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:35
Montgomery has the early-down role in Houston with no real competition, and will dominate early downs while likely not playing most passing downs.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveValue0:39
Warren is significantly underpriced relative to Rico Dowdle despite being a superior pass-catcher and pass-blocker, with multiple rounds of separation in rankings despite only two spots in ADP.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:39
Warren is the better fit for Aaron Rodgers' needs in Pittsburgh as a pass-catcher and pass-blocker, with PFF giving him a 72 pass-blocking grade versus Dowdle's 24.6.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:39
Steelers running backs accounted for 25.4% of team targets last year (second-highest in the league behind the 49ers), positioning Warren to catch a lot of balls in Pittsburgh.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:40
Warren is ranked RB26 in ECR and should see a much larger production gap versus Rico Dowdle than their current ADP suggests, with Warren ranked multiple rounds higher in personal rankings.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveProjection0:03
Ranked as RB13 (highest ranked RB2), Love is positioned to finish as an RB1 this season. The analyst notes that eight running backs selected with top-12 picks from 2015-2025 averaged 1,474 yards from scrimmage and 10.9 touchdowns in their rookie seasons, with the worst output (McCaffrey's 1,086 yards and 7 TDs) still finishing as RB11 in half-PPR.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout0:04
Love is the analyst's favorite pick for most likely to finish as an RB1 among all candidates discussed, described as a 'chalk pick' based on historical precedent of early-drafted running backs hitting in their rookie seasons.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:05
Drafting Love is described as 'a great way to capitalize on what has proven to be an irrational fear' of rookies, as the NFL historically gets it right when drafting running backs in the top half of the first round.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveRole0:12
Gainwell has never been made a core part of any team's running game, averaging only 6.7 rushing attempts per game last year (his career high), suggesting limited threat to Irving's workload.
Insight pageKyle Monangai
PositiveSleeper0:41
Monongai had an impressive rookie season as a seventh-rounder with 783 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and 18 catches for 164 yards, showing potential for more upside in Ben Johnson's run-heavy offense.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:42
Monongai is a north-south runner who gets the ball quickly and is hard to bring down, with only four other running backs averaging less time behind the line of scrimmage last year.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
PositiveProjection0:15
Judkins is ranked RB21 as an RB2 with RB1 potential, coming off a season-ending injury but showing positive recovery reports in early summer.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:17
The Browns offense is expected to be a bottom-10 unit unless Deshaun Watson has a miracle comeback or Shadour Sanders becomes a superstar, creating significant headwinds for Judkins to reach RB1 status.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:17
The Browns have a rebuilt offensive line with players who have never played together before, which will likely take time to gel and may not look great until the second half of the season.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveRole0:25
Stevenson was featured heavily in the playoffs over Jaylen Henderson due to pass-blocking concerns and the Patriots' need to protect Drake May, though fumbles have been an ongoing issue.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
NegativeValue0:39
Dowdle is overpriced relative to Jalen Warren despite being a worse pass-catcher and pass-blocker, with a PFF pass-blocking grade of just 24.6 compared to Warren's 72.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Ironhide ranked as RB2s that we think of RB1 potential.
0:05There are names in there that we would pick if we could, but we are not eligible because they have already done it before.
0:13We are only considering names who have never once been an RB1.
0:17Does that make sense to you? It does make sense, Worm.
0:20And man, all right, I got to flip the switch back into football because there's been so much going on in the sporting world not related to football.
0:29We've had the Knicks win their first NBA title since 1973.
0:32The Carolina Panthers, excuse me, Carolina Hurricanes just won the Stanley Cup last night.
0:37What else? World Cup going on. U.S. Open is this week.
0:40But, you know, of course, I'm still thinking about NFL football every day and have two or three basketball drafts going on at any given time.
0:48So NFL is never too far off our thoughts.
0:51You didn't mention the fact that we are also locked in a battle to earn the third seed in our work Fantasy Baseball League as well.
0:59You and I are in a group of a couple of players who are fighting for spots two and three.
1:05Only three teams make the playoffs in this. It's kind of a weird format.
1:10And we are among the four teams fighting for that second and third spot.
1:14So that's another fun one as well. So yeah, a lot going on.
1:18A buddy of mine got to go to the Scotland-Haiti game World Cup through his work, which was he said was really incredible.
1:26I watched the Knicks win the championship at a bar with some Knicks fans.
1:30I wasn't there with them. They just happened to be at the bar also.
1:34And one of the guys is a lot older and you can tell like he has been waiting for this for like decades.
1:41And it was like really cool to see the emotion come through with the final buzzer.
1:47Yeah, a lot of sports going on. It's a great, great call by you.
1:51It's an interesting time of year. Yeah, the World Cup is awesome.
1:55And it has made Twitter a fun place to be.
1:58The Scots taking over the city of Boston, South Koreans getting drunk with their Mexican hosts.
2:03Just so many good videos of like the world coming together for the World Cup.
2:07So that's been a blast to see. Yeah, it's been super fun to see the positivity there.
2:13Obviously, there's been some negativity with some of that stuff as well, but enjoying the positive side of things.
2:19Let's jump into the show here. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings.
2:27We'll be operating off of those rankings here today when referencing where some of these guys are.
2:32By the way, we are using their half PPR rankings for clarity.
2:36Obviously, at running back, you know, that's a position where it can kind of change depending on the format you're in.
2:43We're looking at half PPR here. So let's go through.
2:46There are six names here in sort of this RB2 with RB1 potential.
2:50Rather than you pick your favorites, since it's just the two of us, what I'm going to do is going to list
2:57each of them for you in order here. And you will kind of agree or disagree that, hey, these are a player
3:04that you see as really having RB1 potential this season.
3:07You can kind of highlight which of the ones do stand out as your ultimate favorites here, Fitz.
3:12But we'll at least mention all the ones who are eligible.
3:16It's half of the RB2's six names in total.
3:19The first one is right at the top, RB13, so the highest ranked RB2.
3:23That's Jeremiah Love. Obviously, he has never been at RB1 before because he has never been an NFL running back before he is with the Arizona Cardinals.
3:31Took him really early, right? The draft capital would certainly suggest that he's going to get the opportunity here.
3:37We did just see, you know, Ashton Chenty a year ago as this really highly touted running back who comes in.
3:44And he did technically finish. It was a disappointing season, but he played 17 games, which kind of helped him finish.
3:51If you look at the overall standings as RB11, that's in full PPR, by the way.
3:56But just showing that like, you know, he did come in and make something of an impact, even though if it was
4:02a disappointment overall, he was RB13.5 PPR for what it's worth.
4:06Do you see Love having a better season than Ashen Genty with kind of a similarly difficult offensive environment to imagine a whole lot of success for?
4:14Do you think he'll be better or worse? Where are you at on Love?
4:19Yeah, I don't know how he's going to rate at the end of this season relative to Genty and what we considered
4:26a mildly disappointing season, even though Genty had double-digit touchdowns and was pretty good as far as yardage too.
4:32I'm going to give you a spoiler worm. This is my favorite pick for most likely to finish as an RB1 of
4:38all the guys we're going to talk about today.
4:41And really, it's kind of a chalk pick. So from 2015 to 2025, there have been eight running backs selected with top 12 picks in the NFL draft.
4:50Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Ashton Chenty.
4:55Those eight running backs averaged 1,474 yards from scrimmage and 10.9 touchdowns in their rookie seasons.
5:00And the worst statistical output of any of those rookies came from McCaffrey, who had 1,086 yards from scrimmage, only seven touchdowns for the Panthers in 2017.
5:09He was the RB11 in half-point PPR scoring that year, and mainly because he did so well as a pass catcher that
5:15year and caught a ton of balls. Jeremiah Love, yes, sitting outside RB1.
5:20I think there's a strong case, and I do personally rank him as a low-end RB1.
5:25And the case against him is, yes, the Cardinals were terrible last year and are probably going to be terrible again.
5:31Well, the winning percentage of the teams that drafted those eight rookie running backs in the seasons before they were drafted, 32%, 320.
5:38Those teams were mostly terrible too. So yeah, and there's always this universal fear of the unknown with rookies.
5:44Some people are just always going to be reluctant to draft rookies because they've never before played in the NFL, have no resume.
5:51But drafting Love is a great way to capitalize on what has proven to be an irrational fear.
5:57We talked a lot during sort of the height of rookie draft season this year when talking about Love specifically about how
6:04the NFL tends to get it right at the very top.
6:07If they are willing to take a running, at this position I mean, if they are willing to take a running back
6:14inside the top half of the first round, they are usually hit on that.
6:19Now there's always questions about like, is that a valuable pick and is it the right use of resources?
6:25But if a team is willing to commit those resources, like I think we said it was what Leonard Fournette was like
6:32the last one that like didn't really significantly hit ultimately.
6:35And even he wasn't like a total bust. It was just disappointing for the fourth overall pick.
6:40So like when a guy goes as early as Love did, and he obviously went crazy early, usually works.
6:46Let's look at the next running back here. And by the way, there's a lot of youth on here.
6:52When we did this show a couple of years ago, I don't have the stats in front of me now, but we
6:59referenced one of the articles we had on the site about how a really big percentage of running backs that reach this
7:06top 12 status in a season for the first time do so in years two and three.
7:11That's definitely a theme. There are some older running backs here as well.
7:15And obviously see some younger with Jeremiah Love, but that's kind of the heart of where you look for a lot of these breakouts.
7:23RB19 right now, Cam Scadaboo is of course a second year running back.
7:27The Giants could have been a team to consider Love.
7:30He didn't fall to them. So that kind of leaves a path here for Scadaboo coming off of a really gruesome injury.
7:37Looks like he's actually dropped a spot since we put the show sheet together.
7:41He's now RB20, but still in that same range in the RB2 section.
7:45What do you think about Scadaboo? Yeah, I think the injury is really the thing we have to reckon with here in
7:52terms of his odds of being an RB1 this year.
7:55So he played eight games as a rookie, only played eight offensive snaps in the first game he ever played in the NFL.
8:02And then he only played 11 snaps in the game where he got hurt.
8:07But in those six games in between, he averaged 19 and a half touches a game and he had five touchdowns in those six games.
8:15So he catches passes. He's the goal line guy for the Giants.
8:18He gets the high value touches. And is the new coaching staff going to use him in the same way?
8:25You know, we've got John Harbaugh coming in as the head coach of the Giants.
8:29Matt Nagy is the offensive coordinator. Greg Roman, the senior offensive assistant who we know likes to run the ball.
8:36I don't know if those guys are going to be so head over heels in love with Tyrone Tracy, that it's going
8:42to fundamentally chip away at that role that Cam Scadaboo had for the better part of the games he played as a rookie.
8:50So it's mainly just a matter of his health.
8:53And yeah, I mean, it was a terrible injury, an open dislocation, a tibia fracture, ligament damage.
8:58So yeah, like it was bad, although he is expected to be ready.
9:02It was, I think, maybe a month or less than a month after the injury that Cam Scadaboo was at a WWE
9:09event in Madison Square Garden, getting involved, mixing it up with pro wrestlers, shoving one guy to the ground.
9:15So like we know that Scadaboo is not going to make any business decisions with his body.
9:20He's just not that kind of a guy. So if his body cooperates and he is at something close to full go
9:27this year, and you know, it seems like that workload is going to be there for him, I do think he has
9:34a reasonable chance to get an RB1 range. Where's he ranked for you?
9:38I'm somewhat in line. I mean, I recognize the risk here.
9:41I have got him RB20. No, excuse me, RB21.
9:44But I think I'm going to move him up past David Montgomery and maybe Javante Williams too.
9:50I'm going to do that right now, in fact.
9:52So he's going to be RB19 for me. You like him better than Javante.
9:57That's interesting. I would, Javante, obviously not eligible for this discussion today just because he's already been in RB1 in his career.
10:04But I think I like Javante like pretty clearly better than Scadaboo, just like, I mean, almost entirely driven by that injury factor.
10:11But that injury factor is a real thing for Scadaboo coming off of, like it wasn't just like you said, a very
10:18simple injury, even though it has seemed like the recovery has gone well.
10:22And Javante seems to have just as great a runway this season as he did last year in what should be a good offense.
10:29I'm surprised by that choice by you. He does.
10:32Javante slowed down a little bit down the stretch last year.
10:36I mean, he wasn't bad over the second half of the season.
10:39He just wasn't as dynamic or efficient as he had been the first half of the year.
10:45Next name here, Bucky Irving. He, I actually haven't listed as RB20.
10:48He's now up to RB19. He and Scadaboo are back to back.
10:52This is the one that I was expecting you to say is your favorite, not Jared Mylove.
10:58Love obviously ranks higher, so I guess that makes sense.
11:01But you have just been such a strong voice in favor of trading for Bucky in Dynasty leagues that I kind of
11:08assumed that I would carry over to our redraft discussion here.
11:11Where are you at on Bucky in that RB19-20 range as an RB2 with RB1 potential?
11:16I guess he's my favorite relative to where he's being ranked since, you know, Love is almost cheating at RB13, but Bucky back end RB2.
11:24And I'm not surprised it's already come up because Todd Bowles had that cryptic comment about Bucky being back on the field sometime in summer or fall.
11:32And the or fall just terrified people. But then Bucky's out there running around in OTAs the other day, so he looks fine.
11:39He's going to be ready to play tackle football in week one.
11:43Yeah, I mean, I can't forget how good Bucky was when Liam Cohen sort of turned over the backfield to him late in his rookie season.
11:51And from week 10 through the Buccaneers playoff loss to the Commanders that year, Bucky averaged 111.6 yards from scrimmage per game with six touchdowns in nine games.
12:00And that stretch included one game where he only played 10 snaps because he got dinged up.
12:05So it was maybe even better than those numbers suggest.
12:09Like he's just, he's explosive. He is a good pass catcher.
12:12And I know people are terrified that like Kenneth Gainwell is going to steal all the like receptions from him.
12:18He's got a better yards per route run for his career, significantly better than Kenneth Gainwell.
12:23Like he's a better pass catcher and Gainwell, I know everyone likes him.
12:27I know he got voted the Steelers offensive MVP last year, but I mean, he's never been made a core part of any team's running game.
12:36I mean, I think he averaged what, 6.7 rushing attempts per game last year.
12:40And that was like his career high. So with Bucky, part of it was his own injuries last year.
12:46Part of it was injuries to the Buccaneers offensive line.
12:49They got less efficiency as far as blocking for him.
12:52So Bucky last year, 3.4 yards per carry, only 2.33 yards after contact per carry percentage of breakaway runs, only 13.4%.
12:59But in his rookie year, 34.9 breakaway percentage, 5.4 yards per carry, 3.93 yards after contact per carry, which by the way,
13:06it was best among any running back with at least 60 carries that year.
13:10And the Buccaneers offensive line got hit really hard by injuries last year.
13:14In the run blocking metric, adjusted line yards, they were second in Bucky's rookie year.
13:19Last year, they were 20 seconds in that metric.
13:22So partly Bucky banged up, partly the offensive line banged up.
13:25I think we're going to see the guy we saw in his rookie year, and he was sensational back then.
13:31I realized that they might give Sean Tucker goal line work.
13:35I realized Kenneth Gainwell might steal some of the third down work.
13:39Yeah, I mean, Bucky might not be a great bet for 10 touchdowns.
13:43I think he's a really good bet for 1,400, 1,500 total yards.
13:46You have really kind of brought me around on Bucky.
13:49I was kind of going into this season thinking that I would be fading him relative to consensus, but mostly from the
13:56conversations we've had on the, you know, dynasty side, like I mentioned, but now like through the prism of, you know, redraft
14:03as well, it does seem like a, like a pretty good value.
14:07I'm surprised we have sort of a consensus draft sentiment on player cards at fantasypros.com.
14:12And the consensus draft sentiment, just kind of reading through the way people are talking about him is that the upside is
14:19not that high with Bucky in this range, but the bust, you know, factor is high.
14:24I can understand the bust factor being considered high, just given some of the injury stuff that we saw last year.
14:30But like, I do feel like the upside, especially at RB 20 or RB 19, where he's at now is there, I,
14:37it does seem like there is a path to, you know, RB one territory.
14:41What do you think is the actual ceiling on Bucky?
14:45Like best case scenario, Baker's healthy. Zach Robinson does a great job with the offense.
14:49Like they're scoring lots of touchdowns. He's the bell cow.
14:52Like what is like the highest finish you can envision for him?
14:56I think it looks a lot like it did from week 10 of 2024 through the end of the, uh, well through
15:03the, the Buccaneers playoff ouster when I forget what, where he ranked, but it was clearly inside running back one range.
15:10Like, I think it would have been like running back seven or something over that duration, but he was like clearly a running back one.
15:18And man, I know he was on one of my championship teams in 2024 and like, he was an engine absolutely down the stretch for me.
15:26Let's go to a second year running back here.
15:28Quinshawn Judkins. He was RB 21. Yep. He's still there.
15:32So a lot of guys right in the same range here.
15:35RB 21 for Judkins, another guy coming off of pretty extreme injury.
15:39We've seen some clips of him looking, you know, pretty good.
15:42It's obviously early in the summer. You never really know what that means, but you know, the updates seem relatively positive here,
15:49uh, or even very positive some of them. So he's a guy that looked really awesome when he was on the field last year before that injury.
15:58They, you know, I, I get the, the, the sentiment that the Browns are the Browns and like the quarterback situation is
16:04still, you know, uh, stressful and, uh, pessimistic. And I get why people are very low on this offense.
16:10I do think Todd Munkin is a really good offensive play caller and designer.
16:15Like I thought he did a great job in Baltimore.
16:18I thought he did a great job in at Georgia when he was in coaching college.
16:23It's a different role being a head coach. You never know how it's going to translate, but I do.
16:29And out the end, also I will recognize that they just had Stefanski who we think of as a highly touted offensive
16:36mind, but I think Munkin can do a good job, particularly with Judkins as a bell cow.
16:41Now the offensive line has been bad for a couple of years.
16:45Quarterback situation is still rough. He's coming off an injury.
16:48I get all that. I'm a little inclined to buy into, especially at this cost as a backend RB2, assuming the reports
16:55continue to be pretty positive throughout the summer about his recovery.
16:58Where are you at on Judkins fits? I don't have any real problem with his price as a backend RB2.
17:05That's where I'm at with him too. He had the dislocated ankle and fractured tibia or fibula.
17:10I think it was fibula, but obviously like that wasn't even as quite as severe an injury as Scadaboos.
17:16So if we're going to tout Scadaboos, it's hard not to tout Judkins and on a bad team, which is also afflicting Jeremiah Love.
17:23I guess my main concern for Judkins and why I think he might be a little capped as an RB2 and maybe
17:30not with a lot of RB1 potential is just what you mentioned, Worm, just the overall impotence of the Browns offense.
17:37This is going to be a bottom 10 offense, almost certainly, unless we get some sort of miracle comeback season from Deshaun
17:44Watson or Shadour Sanders suddenly blossoms into a superstar.
17:47And maybe more than that, we've got a rebuilt offensive line with a bunch of guys who've never played together before.
17:53Even though the parts might be better than the offensive line last year, which was so banged up, these guys are going
18:00to take some time to come together as a unit.
18:03And I think we'll probably not see them look great until at least the second half of the season.
18:09But I just don't know. It seems like there are a lot of headwinds for Quinchon Judkins to becoming a running back one.
18:16Just since we've talked about both Scadaboos and Judkins and really Irving too, even though it was a different level of severity
18:23and type of injury, just thinking about these guys coming off of season-ending injuries or season-really affecting injuries with Irving, what is
18:30your general thought process on drafting a guy who had injury problems the year before?
18:35Are you more inclined to fade them relative to consensus because you don't want to be overly optimistic about injury recoveries?
18:41Are you inclined to go after them and target them a little more aggressively because everybody else is fading them based on
18:48the injury and kind of forgetting what they were before they were hurt?
18:52Just philosophically and particularly at a position like running back where you know injuries are going to find you anyway.
18:59How do you approach just generally injuries or do you really have to take it on a situation-by-situation basis?
19:05It's definitely case-by-case and it's worth keeping abreast of like the injury recovery news from all these guys and what they're doing,
19:11how far they are along, when they're expected to be full go and everything.
19:16But yeah, it is catch-22 on one hand. You don't want to be the guy rushing into a burning building as far as injuries go.
19:24On the other hand, those injuries usually create some sort of discount and I think we're seeing that in the case of all these guys.
19:32Maybe less so Irving. With Irving, I think it's more perceived competition at running back with the Buccaneers, but with Skadaboo and
19:38Judkins, I think there are injury discounts for sure.
19:41Skadaboo is the main one because he was performing so well last year before he gets this gruesome injury that probably a
19:48lot of people were watching at the time. Whereas Judkins may be a little more, I think it's more the Browns offense
19:55that has people scared off, but the injury should be kind of a factor in our thinking too.
20:01Yeah. I often think about a friend of the show, Scott Pianowski from Yahoo talks, he is constantly kind of pushing against
20:08injury optimism, but that's more in season, right? Like when a guy gets hurt and is coming back a month later, he
20:14doesn't want to be overly optimistic in season. I feel like in the off season, it's a little bit of a different
20:21approach the way you see it in terms of like they've had time to recover and be fully ready to go and
20:28not rush back just to kind of save the season or anything like that.
20:33So it's a little bit different than kind of the in season injury pessimism, so to speak.
20:38Sure. And I mean, we get optimism on so many of these players.
20:42George Kittle is vowing he's going to be back from for week one and he tore his Achilles in the playoffs.
20:49And we've heard reports that maybe it wasn't as severe in Achilles tear as the typical Achilles tear, but I don't know.
20:55Yeah. Sometimes you have to take this stuff with a little bit of a grain of salt.
21:01That's why everyone needs to stay tuned to the NFL news and check the fantasy pros NFL news feed throughout the off season.
21:08For sure. Two more running backs here in this range that have not ever been an RB one before.
21:14Next one up is currently ranked RB 22. That is DeAndre Swift.
21:18He's a player who has had a reasonably high floor in his career in terms of, you know, just the season stats.
21:25In fact, he has finished as an RB two all six seasons of his career.
21:29He has been RB 18, 19, 22, 23, 19, and 15.
21:33That's in half PPR scoring. So he has never been an RB one, but he has been between RB 15 and RB 23 every year.
21:41And RB 15 was what he did last year.
21:43That's his best finish that he's had. So do you see that as an, you know, upward movement?
21:49He's on a trajectory where even sort of later in his career, later relative to being a running back, he's taking a
21:56step forward in this Ben Johnson offense. Do you see that as more of a fluke?
22:01And he kind of falls back to that backend range is Swift, somebody that you can get behind as a guy with RB one potential.
22:09I could get behind him as a guy with RB one potential.
22:13I don't know if he does it short of an injury to Kyle Manongai.
22:17It just seems that Ben Johnson is committed to a two man backfield and kind of always has been.
22:23I mean, we saw it with Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit during Ben Johnson's three seasons there.
22:29We saw last year in Chicago with Swift and Kyle Manongai.
22:32But the good news is that Ben Johnson might be the single best designer of running games, running game choreographer in the NFL.
22:39I mean, he is really good at it. The Bears were number three in running DVOA last year.
22:45Only the Rams and the Bills were better. In his three years as Detroit's offensive coordinator, the Lions ranked 12th, 4th, and 2nd in rushing DVOA.
22:53The Bears were third in rushing yardage last season.
22:56They were third in yards per carry, 4.9. Chicago was 22nd in pass rate over expected and had the 11th highest percentage of running plays.
23:04Ben Johnson likes to run. His teams are generally good at it.
23:08So it's just a really good environment for a running back.
23:11And Swift gave us something approaching in RB one season last year.
23:15I just think it's going to be Swift as an RB2 and Manongai as like RB2, RB3, unless one of them gets
23:22hurt and all of a sudden the workload increases for the healthy one, then there's RB1 potential.
23:27We obviously don't want an injury to happen, but let's just pretend for a second that Kyle Manongai has some bad injuries out for the season.
23:35Where would you be ranking Swift in that scenario where they're not adding somebody else instead?
23:40Like, let's say this happens in late August, right?
23:43There's not time to go out and sign somebody else.
23:46And it's just now so it's backfield fully. Is he ranked inside the top 12 for you or is he just higher
23:53than he is now, but still not quite at that top 12 spot because it's pretty strong top 12 right now.
24:00Yeah, I'm putting him somewhere in that instance between seven and 10.
24:03Still going to be behind Jonathan Taylor, who is my running back six.
24:08As of now, I would have to figure out where I would rank DeAndre Swift versus Kenneth Walker, O'Marion Hampton, Devon HN.
24:14And I'd have him ahead of Jeremiah Love, who is my current RB10.
24:18I was going to say, Chase Brown and Saquon are also in that seven to 10 range right now in consensus rankings.
24:25So yeah, I'm a little lower on those there.
24:28Those are the back end RB1s for me. Yeah.
24:3111 and 12. Yeah. I mean, again, obviously we super did not want an injury, but Swift is, would be set to
24:38really take advantage if something were to happen. And same is true of Menungai.
24:42If something were to happen to Swift, they kind of do cannibalize each other just a bit.
24:48But obviously, I mean, again, he was RB15 last year.
24:51So that was with Menungai having a pretty good season.
24:54So there's room for upside here, even if he doesn't quite reach RB1 level.
24:58One more name in this range at RB23. It's Travion Henderson.
25:02One of your favorites fits. Do you see him having a decent chance at becoming an RB1 in 2026?
25:08Yeah. I mean, we saw what happened in the playoffs last year where it was just the Ramondre Stevenson show.
25:14And I think a lot of that had to do with pass blocking and their confidence in Stevenson's ability to help out
25:21Drake May since that offensive line was not exactly airtight down the stretch last year.
25:26And they just had a murderer's row of defenses that they were facing in the playoffs.
25:31And weirdly enough, Henderson was kind of touted for being the best pass blocker among the running back class of 2025.
25:37Just didn't really translate from college. I think he could still be a good pass blocker.
25:42We just didn't see it in his rookie year.
25:45Didn't make that transition very well in that facet of his game.
25:49But in the other facets of the game, as a runner and receiver, we saw Henderson look sensational over a three-game stretch, at least last year.
25:57Week 9 to week 11 averaged 110 scrimmage yards per game, two touchdowns.
26:01Then later in week 15, Ramondre, so week 9 to week 11, I think Stevenson was out.
26:06Week 15, Stevenson was playing. Henderson still had 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Bills in that game.
26:13So we did get several weeks of running back one production from Henderson, and he looked as explosive as advertised.
26:19He offers something as a pass catcher. So yeah, it's just a matter of what the Patriots do as far as the workload distribution in that backfield.
26:27Again, probably a case where Stevenson is healthy all season.
26:30There's not much of a path for Henderson to be an RB1.
26:34But if anything happened to Stevenson, there's absolutely a path.
26:37Trevor Travion was given at least 12 carries six times last season.
26:41Yeah, excuse me, seven times last season. In those seven games, he had four top seven finishes, three inside the top four.
26:48Like when he got not even like crazy workload, but just like at least 12 carries, you had a better than 50%
26:55chance that he was finishing inside this top eight at his position that week.
26:59Just really good, really explosive. It's almost funny to look like he was RB19 in half PPR scoring on the season last year.
27:06That feels surprising given that, you know, just how little work he got early, given the way it finished in the playoffs,
27:13which obviously doesn't play into the scoring, but is, you know, fresher in people's memories.
27:18But these spike weeks really carried his season-long stats.
27:21Like you get to the end of the season and you're like, he had 900 rushing yards, nine touchdowns, throwing a couple
27:28hundred receiving yards and a receiving touchdown in there as well.
27:31Like that's not a bad rookie season at all.
27:34Yet it felt like disappointment because of how it's so much of it just came in that stretch in the middle.
27:41But yeah, the upside is enormous. I mean, he had four games from week 10 on with multiple touchdown score.
27:47Those are just spike weeks that like even setting aside whether or not he finishes as an RB1 this season, those are
27:54the types of weeks that win you matchups in a fantasy season.
27:57Like spike weeks and those big explosive plays go a lot further than a bad week hurts you.
28:03It helps you a lot more to have those weeks than the bad weeks might knock you down.
28:09So like the week winning upside, very apparent for Travion Henderson because he did it multiple times, even in a disappointing year.
28:16Yeah. It's just, it's his misfortune to be paired with a good NFL running back in Ramondre Stevenson.
28:21Like as good as Henderson might be this year, the Patriots aren't just going to totally shelve Ramondre.
28:27He's too good for that. So Henderson is going to have to produce in sort of a shared role.
28:33But then again, he's been doing that for a while.
28:36I mean, he did that in his final year at Ohio state when he was sharing the backfield with Quinn Sean Judkins.
28:43I don't think he ever had more than 12 carries in a game in his final college season.
28:48So it might have to be that, but the good thing is that Henderson has proven he can produce on a limited number of carries.
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31:09And maybe this will be the year where Ramondre's fumbles do get him off the field.
31:14You never know, man. That's been an issue for Ramondre, for sure.
31:18But yeah, no, Henderson is just a fun player to have, I think.
31:22Because the weeks that they're good, they're going to be really, really good.
31:26And maybe we get more of that this year.
31:29Maybe the pass blocking is a little more trustworthy this year.
31:32You know, all that fun stuff. Do you like him more or less than David Montgomery this year?
31:38Worm. I like him more. Or I do wonder if, especially this time of year, I tend to still be kind of
31:45transitioning away from so heavy on rookie draft season and dynasty thinking into redraft shows.
31:49Obviously, we're still doing dynasty shows. But it's very easy for me to go, well, of course you're out of Henderson.
31:56He's so much younger. But for just this season, the opportunity, I think, will be there for Montgomery and Houston.
32:02And I really like the – I just think the Texans are going to be really good this year with the defense and everything.
32:10And the ability to run the ball will, I think, go a long way with Montgomery.
32:15And I think it'll help Stroud. I think it'll help the offensive line if they can just kind of rely on his physicality a little bit better.
32:23But Montgomery would have been an interesting thought experiment for this.
32:27He has been an RB1 before, so he wasn't eligible for the exercise.
32:31It's quite the fact that he's ranked inside this range.
32:34But it came back in 2020. He was RB4.
32:37He has not been an RB1 in any other season of his long career.
32:41So almost like spiritually could have been a part of this episode and this exercise as a guy who maybe like with
32:48the opportunity he'll get with the Texans will kind of take that step forward.
32:52But having said all that, like it just feels like the upside is higher with Henderson.
32:57That might be a bit of a fallacy, honestly, and just kind of like following the shiny new toy and the flashy
33:04like really fun spike weeks and ignoring. What the opportunity is really going to look like.
33:09What do you think between the two? I mean, like I said, Eileen Henderson, but I don't know that that's the right decision.
33:16Yeah, the internal debate is raging for me right now.
33:19I've got Montgomery ranked a little higher. It does feel like sort of a floor play versus ceiling play thing.
33:26And generally, I lean toward the ceiling play in that regard.
33:29But maybe Montgomery has a higher ceiling than we're giving him credit for.
33:33I just think he's so well positioned to average 15 carries a game and add some pass catching for the Texans.
33:40A team that with its great defense is going to give the offense a lot of run friendly game scripts.
33:46I also feel like of all the players in this range of kind of like he's RB 24.
33:52So in this kind of mid 20s range, he's the one that I think has the best chance of like, oh, we
33:59look up and all of a sudden he had a 14 touchdown season.
34:03Like, again, I wouldn't like like bet on that, but he will have the opportunity.
34:07Again, I think this is going to be a good team.
34:11I still think CJ Stroud is a good quarterback.
34:14Like, again, I know the disaster in the playoffs is fresh in everybody's mind, but like I still think he's pretty good.
34:21I think the offense will be better this year, and I think Montgomery will get a huge percentage of the opportunity.
34:27I mean, you have talked about how you're just not that impressed with a guy like Woody Marks right in this backfield.
34:34Like Montgomery will have the opportunity to basically get as many carries as he can handle.
34:39And I think particularly near the goal line, he will take advantage of that and they're going to have scoring opportunities.
34:46And again, I'm not saying that you have to go out and bet on this or anything, but it would not.
34:52It would be one of the less surprising guys in this range for me to just have this really spike season in terms of touchdown scoring.
35:00Yeah, early down role, there's really no one to contest David Montgomery in Houston.
35:05Like that job is his. It's just he's probably not going to play on most passing downs, but that's fine with as
35:12much as he is going to dominate early downs.
35:14Before we get to our next breakout RB1 candidate, let me tell you exactly why you should be using draft intel.
35:21Finding league winning running backs isn't just about knowing who you like.
35:25It's about knowing when you actually have to take them in your draft.
35:29With draft intel, you can see how your league mates have drafted in the past.
35:34Spot tendencies, understand positional runs, and prepare for the managers who always push running backs up the board.
35:39So if there's a breakout running back you want before the price jumps, draft intel helps you know whether you can wait
35:46or whether you need to be aggressive before somebody else takes him.
35:50Go to fantasypros.com slash intel. Use draft intel and build a draft plan for your league.
35:55Fitz, I will tell you, I think draft intel is my single favorite tool that we have at Fantasy Pros.
36:01That's not just me like trying to be a company man and do an ad read.
36:06Like I legit think it's awesome. It's one of the – we brought it in a couple of years ago at this
36:13point, and I just think it's one of the coolest things we have.
36:17And I use it every draft that I have a league that's eligible to use it, and I just think it's a really, really cool tool we have.
36:26Same, yeah. I used to go into drafts just, you know, my rankings and that was it.
36:31Kind of play it by – like it is advantageous to have this for you guiding you during your draft.
36:37And like sort of – it's like you've got a higher power whispering in your ear during fantasy drafts.
36:43And that's kind of useful. It feels like, you know, you're bringing brass knuckles to the fight basically.
36:49Yeah. And anybody who's been in a league for several years where you have this data that draft intel can look back
36:56on, I would highly recommend checking it out. It'll tell you stuff like, hey, you know, your friend here who's picking right
37:03after you has never once taken a quarterback in the first 10 rounds.
37:07So you could probably wait at the position, right?
37:10Stuff like that. Just little insights that really add up and go a long way.
37:14So I really do believe in that tool. I think it's a good one.
37:19Good things happen when you let fantasy pros – when you sink your leagues through us.
37:24Yes, for sure. Sinking, which is free, by the way.
37:27All right. Let's go to some sleepers with a path.
37:30These are guys between RB24 and RB40 is kind of the range we're looking at here.
37:35I'm just going to have you pick a couple of names that you really like here.
37:40And I'll tell you this. I told you this, you know, already before we started recording, but I'll say it for the audience as well.
37:48I kind of went into this since it was just two of us on the show today, expecting to see whatever names
37:55you picked and then throw out a couple of my own that I wanted to kind of pitch you and see if you could get behind them.
38:03And then I was looking in this range, and I was like, you kind of took the ones I would have wanted anyway.
38:10There really weren't like a whole lot of names.
38:13So like one of them is like Janarian Price you didn't have listed here.
38:18I could maybe see pushing for a case for him.
38:21Like if, you know, Charbonnet doesn't come back until Thanksgiving and, you know, he just really does get all this opportunity in Seattle.
38:28Maybe, right, you know, Blake Corum, obviously, like the path there would be injury related with Kyron.
38:33But it just felt hard to get passion. Like Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle, Ramondre Stevenson, we just talked about.
38:39I don't want to be making the cases for these guys.
38:43So you do have a couple of names that you want to be making the case for.
38:48But other than that, it's really not a range that excites me all that much.
38:53I get it. Yeah. Do you want me to hit you with a couple of these names?
38:58Yeah, go ahead. All right. Jalen Warren is one for sure.
39:02Sure. So I know that Rico Dowdle is viewed as a potential thorn in Warren's side.
39:07And there is a history between Rico Dowdle and Mike McCarthy, the new Pittsburgh coach.
39:11Dowdle became the lead running back and had a thousand yard season in McCarthy's last year in Dallas.
39:17So I get it. But I do think in the Pittsburgh backfield, Aaron Rodgers is the prism through which we should be looking at this backfield.
39:25So Rodgers is now just completely immobile and seems less willing than ever to stand in the pocket and take hits.
39:32And he is going to want to play with a running back who can, number one, protect him and number two, be
39:38an outlet for him when the heat is on and he just has to unload the ball quickly.
39:44And I think that's Warren so much more than Rico Dowdle.
39:48Steelers, we saw this last year. Steelers running backs accounted for 25.4% of team targets.
39:52That was the second highest percentage in the league behind only the 49ers, who, of course, have Christian McCaffrey.
39:58Warren has averaged 2.6 receptions per game for his career, 1.41 yards per route run for his career.
40:04Dowdle 1.4 catches a game for his career, 1.05 yards per route run.
40:08So clearly Warren's the better pass catcher. And then as far as pass blocking, PFF gave Warren a pass blocking grade of
40:1572 last season, which is very good. Dowdle a pass blocking grade from PFF, 24.6, which is terrible.
40:20So my money is on Warren being the primary back in Pittsburgh.
40:24I think there could be a big gap in production between Warren and Dowdle.
40:29Like right now, our ADP has them two spots apart at running back and just half a round apart.
40:35Whereas in my rankings, they're like multiple rounds apart.
40:37And I think I've worn eight or nine spots higher in the running back rank.
40:42Where is Warren ranked for you specifically? He's RB 26 in ECR and half PPR.
40:47That's where I'm at. It's more that a fade of Dowdle more so than the, you know.
40:52He's at RB 31 in ECR. Dowdle is. Yeah.
40:55So for me, Dowdle is at 36. Okay. So yeah, I just, I do think the split could be much more pronounced than people expect.
41:03Whether Warren has like an easy path to RB one, I don't know about that, but I think he's going to catch a lot of balls this year.
41:12Yeah. Honestly, I'm not that interested in Warren, but it's, it's less that I think he's mispriced and more just like, I
41:18don't know about the upside getting there. Again, this is a range where I don't feel that strongly about a lot of
41:25these guys, so I'm not saying it's a bad choice by you compared to some of the other names, but your other name here is Kyle Monungay.
41:34And that's when, I mean, we talked about a little bit with Swift.
41:38I'm very on board with this one though. Yeah.
41:41I've already laid out the case when we were talking about DeAndre Swift earlier of how much Ben Johnson likes to run
41:48the ball and how very good his teams are at it.
41:51And then we saw Monungay have a really impressive rookie season, especially for a seventh rounder last year.
41:57783 rushing yards, five TD runs, and really wasn't a complete zero in the passing game, even though he didn't catch many
42:04passages during his college career at Rutgers. Maybe there's some more upside there, although I don't know if he's ever going to
42:10be a guy who catches 50 or 60 balls a year.
42:14But yeah, 18 catches last year for 164 yards, not terrible.
42:17He is just a no-nonsense runner, and he is really hard to bring down because this guy runs angry.
42:23So according to NextGen stats, there were only four other running backs who averaged less time behind the line of scrimmage last year.
42:30Like he gets the ball, he is north-south, and, you know, kind of looking to, if he can't elude people, he'll try
42:37to run you over even though he's kind of a smaller guy.
42:41Like this dude is really tough to bring down.
42:44I'm just, once again, I think the path to Monungay being an RB1 would have to be DeAndre Swift getting hurt.
42:51But he's a guy who's currently, I think, a solid value where he's being drafted.
42:55And the hidden upside is what would happen if Swift ever missed any time?
43:00I think that's the key is he doesn't need Swift to get hurt to outperform this ranking.
43:05But he's not going to get to RB1 status without an injury.
43:09But that's, I mean, again, we don't want an injury.
43:12There's that contingent upside there. But there's also just upside, I think, in terms of scoring touchdowns.
43:17Like he had five rushing touchdowns last year. DeAndre Swift had nine.
43:21Swift, it was only the second time in his career he's ever had more than six.
43:26It hasn't been a huge part of his game on the ground in the past.
43:31And I could see a world where Monungay in year two takes a bit of a step forward.
43:36You know, Ben Johnson just likes the north-south approach when they get close to the goal line.
43:42I think this offense is going to be awesome.
43:44Year two with Caleb and Ben Johnson paired together.
43:47Like I think there could be a lot of scoring opportunities.
43:51And I think Monungay, even if Swift stays healthy the whole year, could be like a 12-touchdown guy this year as like a ceiling.
43:58You know, like a 99th percentile, maybe not 99th, but like a 90th percentile outcome.
44:03I'm not saying it's a guarantee to happen, but I think there's a world where that happens for sure, even if both guys are healthy.
44:11And then you bake in the additional upside if one of them does get hurt for the other.
44:16And I think it's pretty exciting because you're right.
44:19You talked about it with Swift. I'm not sure.
44:22I mean, obviously, guys like McVay and Shanahan have earned the benefit of the doubt doing it for a really long time.
44:29But I'm not sure there's too many names I would prefer designing my team's run game than Ben Johnson right now.
44:35He's so good at it, and it's so important to him that I just think this is a backfield I really want to be targeting.
44:43And the cost is not per hit of it.
44:46I mean, Monungay in half EPR scoring was RB30 last year as a seventh-round rookie.
44:51And he's being ranked lower than that this year when I think we could see a step forward.
44:56Again, year two guys often are the types of running backs that break out for the first time in a significant way.
45:03And he's ranked RB33. I just think the upside is really intoxicating in this range.
45:08I really like this call. Fertile offensive environment for sure.
45:11Offensive line, really good. Might not be quite as good as it was last year with the retirement of center Chris Dahlman
45:18and the injury they had to Ozzy Trapilo. A patellar injury, which is always kind of tough.
45:23But still a lot of really excellent pieces on this offensive line.
45:27And maybe a defense that's going to force the Bears to push the pace a little bit on offense and probably going to score a lot of points.
45:36I think we probably agree that Monungay is the better value if the running back ahead of him on the chart stays
45:43healthy than Blake Corum is, who was one spot behind.
45:46So like if both backfields just stay totally healthy this year, I think Monungay will be better than Corum.
45:52Who would you like between those two better if the guy ahead of him were to get hurt?
45:58I guess what I'm saying is which contingent upside do you think is higher between Corum and Monungay?
46:03I think it's Corum just because the Rams, I mean, they're the heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl right now.
46:10They're going to be playing with a lot of run-friendly game scripts now that they've got Miles Garrett leading what should be a pretty excellent defense.
46:18Yeah, it's just – and we've seen like Rams running backs every year score a lot of touchdowns.
46:24Whether it's just Kyron or some combination of Kyron and someone else.
46:27And it's just – yeah, it's a little – as good as the offensive environment is in Chicago, it's even better for the Rams in LA.
46:35I think I agree. I'd rather have Monungay if guys are healthy, but I'd rather have Corum if we were assuming kind
46:42of that high-end upside with the injury stuff. All right.
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48:45All right, Fitz, we've got a couple of names here to go.
48:49One sophomore breakout from you. And again, I kind of mentioned that this second year, third year running back, we're talking about
48:56a second year one here, is really the range that we want to be kind of targeting most years to find these breakout RB1s.
49:04Who for you stands out in that category? Obviously, other than some of the names we've already talked about who are entering their second season.
49:11Basial Tootin. And the Jaguars' backfield is pretty ambiguous as we head closer to training camp.
49:16So we've got Tootin, we've got Chris Rodriguez, who the Jaguars signed in the offseason in free agency.
49:22And we've got LaQuint Allen, who is actually kind of a sneaky, effective, in some ways, third down back as a rookie.
49:29So there's a lot to like about Tootin as a prospect.
49:32Like, he's super athletic, ran a 4.32 at the combine, had a vertical jump of 40 and a half inches.
49:39Not a tiny guy either, only 5'9 and a half, but 206 pounds.
49:43He's pretty well built. And, like, he'll bounce off contact.
49:46And we like that he is in a Liam Cohen offense.
49:49His lead backs have been pretty productive. Bucky Irving, who we talked about earlier, had a great half season with Liam Cohen
49:56as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay in 2024.
49:59So about the competition, though, with Rodriguez and LaQuint Allen.
50:02So Rodriguez was the lead back for Kentucky in 2021 when Liam Cohen was the offensive coordinator there.
50:08And Chris Rodriguez had 1,300 rushing yards. So that's not nothing.
50:11There was a foot surgery, like some sort of foot injury that Rodriguez sustained early in the offseason program for the Jaguars
50:18and had to have an operation on it. Apparently he's expected to be back in time for training camp, but that's something to watch.
50:26And then you've got LaQuint Allen, who's a pretty good pass catcher, was really good.
50:30He had, I think, 64 catches in his final college season at Syracuse.
50:34And then last year he was pretty effective as a pass blocker.
50:38He was on the field for 61 pass blocking snaps, allowed zero sacks and only three pressures.
50:44So he's good at that. And the fear is that Tootin could get caught in this squeeze where Rodriguez is getting some
50:50of the early down work, the goal line work, and LaQuint Allen is like the third down and long passing down back.
50:57And so it's, you know, where Tootin gets touches, but they're not high value touches.
51:02But if Tootin is just terrific and Liam Cohen decides to roll with them, he could absolutely be an RB1.
51:08It's just what sort of path does Liam Cohen get to?
51:12Does Liam Cohen want to have a main man or does he want this to be a true committee?
51:18And let's not forget, like in 2024 in Tampa Bay, Liam Cohen basically kicked Rashad White to the curb and just handed
51:25things over to Bucky and let Bucky roll. Yeah, Rashad White played on passing downs for the most part, but there was
51:31still plenty of meat on the bone for Bucky that year.
51:35And there could be for Tootin this year. Where's he ranked for you?
51:39He's RB25 in ECR. Same here. Same here. The debate is Tootin versus Jadarian Price.
51:44I've got Tootin higher. He's 25. Price is 26 for me.
51:47In ECR, Price is 27. He's behind Tootin and Jalen Warren is right there at RB26.
51:52Yeah, Tootin, like we talked a lot about him this offseason in the Dynasty show and he has not been somebody that
51:59I've been like trying to go out and aggressively target or anything.
52:03I really like Chris Rodriguez and just like, hey, he's been in a Liam Cohen offense before at Kentucky.
52:09And just seems like the type of player that I think can just be solid, which might be all that this offense needs and is looking for.
52:17Tootin obviously gives you that explosion. And if he gets the opportunity, the ceiling could be like truly enormously high.
52:23I just, I feel, I feel less like he's only two spots behind Travion Henderson in ECR.
52:29I feel like there's a gap between them in my head in terms of how likely they are to be able to
52:36tap into that speed and explosion on a consistent or more consistent basis.
52:40Be like a really big hit for fantasy drafts this year.
52:43Do you see a gap there? I mean, you have them ranked in a similar spot to ECR.
52:49So maybe you don't see as wide of a gap, but I almost feel like that there's sort of a little bit of a step down there.
52:57Yeah. I mean, it's just different profiles for sure, but maybe a little bit of a step down.
53:03Okay. All right. And then we're going to wrap things up with our bold call.
53:08So give me one running back outside the top 40 that you want to make the case could finish as an RB1.
53:14Obviously it gets less and less likely the further down the rankings you go.
53:19I will tell you Fitz, I wanted to make a pick here as well, but you took the name that I would have chosen.
53:26So I think you made a good call. Yeah.
53:29It's Jonathan Brooks who is currently outside our top 40 at ECR among running backs.
53:34I don't think that's going to last very long.
53:37Like Brooks, obviously the concern injuries tore his ACL in his final college season at Texas.
53:42Then tore the same ACL in December, 2024 in his third NFL game.
53:46After he missed a lot of his rookie year, Panthers reportedly had a highly reputable surgeon repair.
53:51The second tear in a sort of, it was sort of a corrective surgery, like both repair and correct.
53:57Like the first surgery, which maybe didn't go as well as they had hoped.
54:01Cause it did take him a long time to recover from that first injury.
54:06They use this technique they called like double bundle, which supposedly increases the knees rotational stability and leads to a stronger reconstruction.
54:13So Panthers have been very deliberate in bringing Brooks back from this latest ACL tear, shut him down for all of 2025,
54:20which in hindsight, probably a smart thing, even though they were a playoff team.
54:24And by the time training camps opens, it'll be 20 months since he had the second ACL tear.
54:30So it's basically just Chuba Hubbard in front of Jonathan Brooks.
54:33And look, Chuba Hubbard is a solid NFL back, very capable, had a big season in 2024, but I think he's kind of a league average back worm.
54:42I don't know how you feel about that, but I think, yeah.
54:46And the upside, everyone loved Brooks as a prospect coming out of Texas and thought this guy was just at his best was absolutely electric.
54:53If they eventually turn this backfield over to him, if he shows in flashes what the same sort of pizzazz he showed
55:00when he was in Austin in college, like, I think that's better than the best of Chuba Hubbard.
55:06So early on, I think it's going to be a slow burn.
55:10I don't think he's going to get double digit carries for, you know, any game in September, most likely.
55:16But man, if he shows he's healthy, feels good after games, no issues there, and he is looks better than Chuba Hubbard.
55:23I think they might just like let him run with the lead role at some point in the season.
55:29You know, it could happen anytime from October on.
55:31I feel like when I was looking at the names outside the top 40 and trying to think about who I wanted
55:38to make the case for, I was really trying to find names that they – because a lot of these names, like,
55:45if an injury happens in their backfield, yes, things could look a lot different and they're going to be a lot higher.
55:52Brooks was one of the few where I think he can just be the RB1 on this team without an injury to Chuba Hubbard.
56:00Like, he, again, was a really fun prospect that we liked a lot when he was drafted in the second round.
56:06If he really is healthy and shakes off the rust and, like, they are willing to give him that chance, he can usurp Hubbard, I think, for sure.
56:15It's not a guarantee. Hubbard's not bad, but I think it could happen.
56:19A lot of the other names in this range and beyond, like, Kamani Vidal, you know, oh, great running game, but –
56:26or Keaton Mitchell really in the same backfield. Like, great running game, but, like, you need an injury to O'Mearian Hampton for
56:33them to take advantage of being in Mike McDaniel's offense, right?
56:36Like, Tajay Spears probably need an injury to Tony Pollard to have that chance.
56:41You know, Chris Rodriguez we just talked about, Basial Tudin.
56:44Tyler Algier could be really fun, but you probably need an injury to Jeremiah Love, right?
56:49It's all this stuff where you need something else to happen to tap into that upside.
56:54Brooks, I don't think you need that. Dylan Sampson was the other one I was looking at, like, because the injury may have already happened with Judkins.
57:02Maybe we are being overly optimistic about his return.
57:05I actually liked quite a bit as a rookie last year.
57:08And if Judkins ends up, you know, maybe not coming back into form as quickly as we are imagining he will, then
57:15maybe there's an opportunity there for Sampson to have some upside.
57:19I mean, I was like, can I interest you in, like, a Jonah Coleman?
57:23Just so you never know what the Broncos are going to do.
57:27You don't really like R.J. Harvey. Dobbins gets hurt again.
57:30Maybe there's an opportunity there. There's just, you know, Braylon Allen's a player that you've liked in the past.
57:36There's just not a ton of other names, I felt like, besides Brooks that I really wanted to plant my flag on.
57:43Yeah, let me correct you. We do know what the Broncos are going to do.
57:48They're going to use a committee because Sean McVay does.
57:51Or, excuse me, Sean Payton does every year. But, yeah, when you look past the top 40 worm, obviously it's pretty –
57:58any sort of RB1 season from that group would be injury-related.
58:01Except I can think of two potential cases where guys could just win out on the merits and their coaches decide, like,
58:08okay, we're rolling with these guys and we're kicking the guys ahead of them to the curb.
58:13DeMond Claiborne in Minnesota with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.
58:16I think, like, Claiborne, when you see that guy run, like, he is just mercury.
58:21Way more explosive than Jordan Mason. And, look, Aaron Jones was maybe starting to slow down a little last year.
58:27So I could see Claiborne earning it on the merits, although he's a long shot for sure as a day three pick.
58:34And sort of the same thing with Nicholas Singleton in Tennessee.
58:38And especially you've got Tony Pollard and TyJ Spears heading into the final year of their contracts with the Titans.
58:44So if they like what they see from Singleton, like why forestall the inevitable?
58:48Maybe they just move him to the top of the food chain and plan on a future with Singleton as their lead guy.
58:56It's kind of funny you said Singleton because I was thinking about his former backfield mate in Katron Allen in Washington.
59:02Kind of a murky-ish backfield situation where maybe he's just the guy.
59:06Maybe this offense takes another step forward, you know, with a new play caller and now healthy again, Jaden Daniels.
59:12And maybe Allen just ends up being the guy who scores a bunch of touchdowns for this offense and kind of becomes the lead back in that way.
59:21I think it's a possibility too. It could be.
59:24I just don't know what sort of pass catching potential Katron has.
59:28I also kind of think Ja'Cory Kroski-Marin might be kind of sneaky good.
59:32Although it does just seem like we're headed towards a full-scale committee with this.
59:36Like Rashad White's going to play a lot. Kroski-Marin's going to play some.
59:40Katron Allen's probably going to play some. Kind of messy.
59:43Can I ask you just about one more name here that feels really, really, I mean, just incredibly gross.
59:49But it's – and we've already talked about a couple of his backfield mates.
59:54So, again, it's one where he probably would need an opportunity to open up to take advantage.
59:59The Steelers invested a day-two pick in Caleb Johnson just a year ago.
60:03We now have a new coaching staff. Maybe just kind of like a fresh start.
60:08Like this is a guy who – a lot of people really like the fit.
60:12So now it's a different offense. Maybe that fit isn't as obvious this year as it felt like last summer.
60:19But do you see any talent here as a guy who was like – I mean, some people – I think Debra
60:26had him as RB2 coming out of Iowa in last year's class.
60:29Like a player who was liked just got off on the wrong foot.
60:33It was a coach who kind of just put him in the doghouse right away after that special teams blunder early on
60:40that cost him a game and just never really got going again.
60:44And at RB68 right now, he's totally free in redraft leagues.
60:47Is there any part of you that's like maybe worth a shot and maybe he looks more like the guy that was
60:54a third-round pick that we kind of expected to come into the league a year ago with the new coaching staff?
61:01Generally in Dynasty, I have a weakness for those types of guys.
61:05Like, hey, they could absolutely still hit. But again, where I'm filtering this look at the Steelers' backfield through the Aaron Rodgers
61:12prism doesn't seem like Caleb fits that at all.
61:14I don't know if he can catch passes well enough.
61:18I don't know if he can protect Rodgers well enough.
61:21I might actually think Eli Heidenreich has a better chance to be impactful this year than Caleb Johnson.
61:26I would wager that we are the only podcast in this industry who can have an episode talking about potential RB1s in
61:332026 where Caleb Johnson's name gets mentioned. So we are unique in that regard at the very least.
61:39And do it without, you know, being under the influence of illicit substances because normally that's what it might take to get us there.
61:46By the way, I didn't ask, have you prepped this, but just to give the people something in this regard.
61:53Any names who have been an RB1 before that are not ranked there that you really like this year?
61:59Just does anybody stand out to you? Because obviously we want to really look at guys who could break out and get
62:05there for the first time this year. But do you see values in guys that you think have that upside even though
62:12they've done it before so they're not eligible for the episode?
62:16I mean, technically, is Omerian Hampton eligible for it?
62:19He's already listed as an RB1. He's RB10. I mean, you could still say that you think he's undervalued and has more upside than that if you want.
62:27But yeah, he is inside the top 12 right now.
62:31Yeah, I don't know about undervalued, but like I think he could get there absolutely with a healthier Chargers offensive line.
62:37One that should actually be pretty good and, you know, with a good defense.
62:41I just think the Chargers are a dangerous team and Hampton could be a heavy part of their offense.
62:47Look, Josh Jacobs, I know there are the concerns.
62:50He had the off the field stuff and it doesn't look like he's going to be charged with anything.
62:56So presumably at this point, he's just going to be the Packers lead back.
63:01And he's averaged basically a touchdown a game for the Packers since joining them.
63:05And Matt LaFleur does not mess around when they get to the goal line.
63:09They hand the ball to Josh Jacobs. So even though he doesn't have immense pass catching upside, the Packers and LaFleur like to run the ball.
63:17And Jacobs is a touchdown machine. So he's the guy maybe we should consider there.
63:22And right now he's ranked pretty well outside RB1 range.
63:25Yeah, so you might have noticed when we talked about all these guys in the RB2 range during the first segment of the show.
63:33It's a lot of guys in the back half of RB2 range.
63:37The first half of RB2 range is Kyron Williams, Brie Saul, Josh Jacobs, Javante Williams, Travis Etienne.
63:42All guys who have done it before, which is why we didn't talk about them.
63:47I find that to be kind of a hard group to parse through right now in early rankings.
63:52I actually kind of think Javante and Etienne I like, you know, as RB17 and 18 feel like values.
63:58I do really like Javante this year. Close to what he did last year, at least an approximation of it.
64:04So yeah, there's some values there. I will say this kind of last question before we wrap up here, Fitz.
64:11I came away from this exercise just looking at these names and preparing for the show and talking with you for the
64:18last hour, feeling like I actually do want to be leaning a little heavier on running back early, I think.
64:24I get pretty uncomfortable once I get past the top 25 names or so.
64:28And, you know, we're making cases for guys that can have upside there.
64:32But it feels really unsturdy past the top couple dozen names here.
64:36So I feel like coming away from this, I want to be drafting running backs earlier in drafts than I kind of realized before talking this through.
64:45And you can make a case for that because it seems like the class of wide receiver ones is shrinking.
64:51And the class of the group of wide receiver twos, sort of borderline wide receiver threes is like very large and flat.
64:58So maybe there's something to be said for getting your two running backs within the first five rounds and should still be
65:05able to get three wide receivers who are like top 30 guys in the first five rounds.
65:10We'll have a lot more time to go through all our different strategies for draft season here over the next couple of
65:17months, which I'm really looking forward to. We'll go ahead and wrap up today's conversation there, though.
65:22For Fitz, I'm Ryan Warmly. Thanks, everybody, for tuning in.
65:25We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
65:30If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
65:39Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
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