5 Early-Round DRAFT TRAPS You Must AVOID | 2026 Fantasy Football Landmines: Nico Collins, Breece Hall, Bucky Irving & More (Ep. 2096)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
33 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 22, 2026
Published
Wed, July 22, 2026
20
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Nico CollinsBreece HallBucky IrvingBryce YoungD.J. MooreJaylen WaddleJeremiyah LoveJonathon BrooksJosh JacobsKyren WilliamsLadd McConkeyTank DellTerry McLaurinTravis Etienne
Player analysis
Player insights
Breece Hall
NegativeBust13:00
The source identifies Breece Hall as the first running back trap of the season with the New York Jets. The source notes that analysts tend to give Hall a pass due to past circumstances, but flags him as a draft trap in early rounds.
Insight pageNegativeRole13:09
Breece Hall is mentioned in the episode title as one of five early-round draft traps to avoid, indicating the source has a cautionary stance on his draft capital relative to expected production or role.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection8:00
Young threw for just four games over 200 passing yards last season, a volume floor that the source deems insufficient for fantasy relevance. While the source respects Young's ability—noting his passing is 'perfectly fine' when he gets volume—the Panthers' offensive philosophy prioritizes a balanced attack and ground game, limiting his passing volume ceiling. The source expects only a modest bump in passing volume as the offense develops, not the significant improvement needed to support his wide receivers' fantasy value.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeBust26:00
The source identifies Bucky Irving as a draft trap despite his ranking dropping to RB20 (which the source credits to their earlier fade campaign). The core issue is a low-floor, committee-bound situation masked by perceived safety. Irving faces multiple compounding concerns: (1) lingering injury-recovery trust issues from last season; (2) Kenneth Gainwell as a 1A/1B backfield mate (per Bucks organization language) who will chip away at receiving work and touches; (3) Sean Tucker already sniping goal-line carries; (4) new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson, who gave Tyler Algier goal-line carries over Bijon Robinson last season, suggesting Irving won't be guaranteed goal-line work; (5) Irving already had an extremely low red-zone and inside-the-10 touch share compared to other RB1s. The source concludes everything about this situation—injury, backfield mates, offensive coordinator—screams committee, not a safe RB1 workload. While Irving won't fade away, the risk-reward is poor; riskier players drafted around him offer higher ceilings.
Insight pageNegativeRole26:24
Bucky Irving is mentioned in the episode title as one of five early-round draft traps to avoid, indicating the source has a cautionary stance on his draft capital relative to expected production or role.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeBust20:37
The source warns DJ Moore is being framed as a safe pick due to reuniting with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but this overlooks critical context: Brady significantly reduced pass volume in Buffalo immediately upon arrival, with back-to-back seasons under 500 pass attempts for Josh Allen by design. Carolina's situation does not apply to Buffalo; Carolina saw 100+ more pass attempts each season under Brady than Buffalo has seen in the past two seasons. Carolina was an objectively awful team (Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, PJ Walker as starters) that required inflated pass attempts, and CMC was injured both years, forcing volume through receivers. In one of those Carolina seasons, DJ Moore was actually out-targeted by Robbie Anderson. Buffalo added Moore to improve pass-catcher quality, not increase pass volume. The source calls this a "very, very hard fade" because without a dramatic increase in pass attempts—which is unlikely—Moore will produce mediocre, unpredictable weekly performances. At WR27 (60th overall), his cost is in Bears territory with better upside alternatives available later (Christian Watson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rashid Rice, Carnell Cade).
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue12:18
The source groups Jalen Waddle with Emeka Gbuja and Ladd McConkey as wide receivers in the same tier as Teddero McMillan (Fantasy Pros tier four), suggesting they offer similar production but better roster construction value than McMillan, who sits at the top of that crowded tier.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeValue12:18
The source mentions Jeremiah Love as one of multiple running backs sandwiched within Fantasy Pros tier four alongside Kyron Williams and Josh Jacobs, in the context of discussing how the tier contains a slew of players with similar-ish production that could offer better roster construction flexibility than Teddero McMillan.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeRole9:00
Brooks is part of a tandem backfield with Juba Hubbard in the Panthers' run-heavy offense. The source notes ongoing uncertainty about who will be the lead back and emphasizes Brooks' injury history as a key variable. The Panthers have invested heavily in offensive line improvements (targeting a top-10 unit) and are committed to making the run game work, creating a competitive backfield situation where Brooks' role and volume depend on health and the team's weekly allocation.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeValue12:18
The source mentions Josh Jacobs as one of multiple running backs sandwiched within Fantasy Pros tier four alongside Jeremiah Love and Kyron Williams, in the context of discussing how the tier contains a slew of players with similar-ish production that could offer better roster construction flexibility than Teddero McMillan.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeValue12:18
The source mentions Kyron Williams as one of multiple running backs sandwiched within Fantasy Pros tier four alongside Jeremiah Love and Josh Jacobs, in the context of discussing how the tier contains a slew of players with similar-ish production that could offer better roster construction flexibility than Teddero McMillan.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveValue12:18
The source groups Ladd McConkey with Jalen Waddle and Emeka Gbuja as wide receivers in the same tier as Teddero McMillan (Fantasy Pros tier four), suggesting they offer similar production but better roster construction value than McMillan.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeBust2:14
Nico Collins is a draft trap despite his high ADP and recent hype around the Texans offense. The source argues there is no discernible evidence he should see an increase in production this season; his last-year production (WR10 in average fantasy points) does not justify his current draft price. With three years of production data alongside CJ Stroud, the pattern is established, and there are only reasons to expect a potential decrease in production, not increase. The source frames this as an opportunity cost issue—paying a hefty price for a receiver without upside justification.
Insight pageNegativeProjection3:24
Last season's WR10 finish (12.7 PPR PPG) was inflated due to league-wide WR/QB injuries; in a normal year that production equates to WR17, not the early-round value his ECR 9 suggests. The Texans' elite defense and league-average passing volume outlook limit ceiling upside relative to draft capital.
Insight pageNegativeValue5:14
At ECR 9 and sometimes drafted in late round one, Collins is being selected above his logical ceiling. Passing him up allows access to the TE1 (ECR 16), elite RBs like Saquon Barkley, Devon Achane, and Chase Brown, and comparable WR tiers (George Pickens, Rashid Rice, Aiyuk) available later.
Insight pageNegativeBust9:48
The source mentions Nico Collins as part of the early-round draft traps discussion, noting an interesting perspective on him, though the speaker expresses being 'a little washy' on the specific argument, suggesting some uncertainty about the strength of the case against him compared to other traps.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveBreakout6:24
The source is bullish on Tank Dell this year, citing improving health outlook and recent video evidence of hard-hitting route running that could translate to on-field production. Dell's ability to maintain target share dominance in the Texans passing game is a fair argument for his upside.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeValue12:18
The source mentions Terry McLaurin as part of the bottom end of wide receivers in Fantasy Pros tier four, alongside Jalen Waddle, in the context of discussing tier-based roster construction alternatives to Teddero McMillan.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeValue12:18
The source mentions Travis Etienne as the bottom of Fantasy Pros tier four at the 47th overall ranking, in the context of discussing the crowded tier that contains ~18 players from Teddero McMillan at the top.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue12:18
The source prefers Zay Flowers over Teddero McMillan in the same tier, positioning him as a better value pick. Flowers is ranked just below McMillan in Fantasy Pros tier four but offers superior roster construction flexibility compared to the crowded wide receiver group at that tier level.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Grainger.com, or stop by.
0:04Grainger, for the ones who get it done. What's up friends and welcome into Fantasy Pros.
0:09This is the Fantasy Football Podcast and today we're talking about...
0:13It's a trap. We're talking about fantasy traps. Kind of early on in rounds as well.
0:18I'm Chris Welsh and I've got Tara Roberts with me.
0:21And these are Tara's traps. There's the new segment.
0:24It's Tara's traps in the draft. Rounds focusing on like 2-6 because Tara, I think it's fair to say like...
0:30People get worked up about the terms like sleepers and busts and stuff like that.
0:35And you know, sleepers don't really work higher in drafts.
0:38Busts don't necessarily work later in drafts. But when you really focus in like those middle portions, the higher to middle portion,
0:45specifically our kind of mental focus here is kind of rounds 2-6.
0:49Just a little bit of first round in here as well.
0:52The big traps in drafts that are going to screw things up and are going to set you off on a completely wrong path.
1:00Potentially, they're going to happen at the top end of the draft.
1:03So that's kind of the focus here. You kind of agree.
1:07Obviously, this is the direction you went. But the players that you want to avoid aren't really later in the drafts.
1:14They're at the top end. Yeah, it's funny because we do hone in on that word bust.
1:19But I feel like traps is cool because bust implies like it's doom and gloom, the worst ever.
1:25It's just going to crash and burn, right? But traps is a fun little sneaky one because it allows us the flexibility
1:31to include a wider range of players. So I like this one here.
1:35And it can set in the idea here. This is like a different way to approach it is sometimes there can be
1:42players and maybe they're not necessarily like a full bus, but drafting them can also set you on a wrong path of
1:49where you may have wanted to go. Maybe it changes you positionally.
1:53Maybe their lack of performance not only hurts you, but the rest of the roster construction is in there.
1:59So that's what we're doing today. We've got five draft traps.
2:03Tara's traps is going to be our main focus.
2:05You guys can let us know if you agree or not in the comments.
2:10You can tell us who your traps are. So let's jump into it with number one.
2:15We are going to jump in with a wide receiver.
2:18This is a very highly talked about highly valued wide receiver.
2:21So you're going to get your you're going to you're going to get your attack here if anybody is going to jump
2:28on anything because this name is so high and you have picked your draft trap of Nico Collins.
2:34So talk to us about whether it is his production or what he sets you off in a wrong path on why he is a draft day trap.
2:43Yeah, I thought we'd start off spicy here and then rip the bandaid off and get a little softer as we get further into the show.
2:51I feel like I and I love Nico, but I feel like we're overlooking a few things with the Texans offense and team as a whole really.
2:59And this is a very hefty price to pay for a receiver who we cannot literally point to any discernible evidence that
3:06he should see an increase in production this season.
3:09And the production that he had last year is just not worthy of this pick.
3:14I understand why he's being pushed up. It makes logical sense.
3:17But at the end of the day, we're talking opportunity costs and what you could potentially lose from drafting players like this.
3:24If anything, there's only reasons why we would potentially see a decrease in production for Nico Collins.
3:30We have three years of production with Nico Collins and CJ Stroud.
3:33We understand what this is, right? Last season was fine overall in terms of the finished wide receiver 10 in average fantasy
3:40points per game and half BPR averaging 12.7 fantasy points per game.
3:44But that finish was a little bit misleading. It was a weird year, right?
3:48That finish is more so a mid-tier wide receiver two in a normal year.
3:53Not the production that we want from a guy that we are drafting early round one, sometimes for some people late, early
4:00round two, sometimes for some people late round one.
4:03So that finish was just a little bit inflated because we had a lot of subpar wide receiver play last season due
4:09to wide receiver injuries, quarterback injuries that made things just kind of wonky.
4:14So again, in a normal season, that kind of production is like wide receiver 17 type of production, unfortunately.
4:19And you might say like, okay, Tara, well, wide receiver 10 to wide receiver 17 really isn't that dramatic.
4:25What are we arguing over here? It is when you are passing over potentially league winning options here.
4:31So while he definitely does potentially have like a slightly higher ceiling because we have seen that in past years.
4:37But the question we have to ask ourselves is, is are the Texans progressing in a way that gets us back to
4:44that ceiling that we saw like two years ago?
4:47Or are they going towards this being kind of the norm for them?
4:51Because their defense is only somehow getting better. It's at the top of the league.
4:56They have all the tools in place for them to be a league average passing team at best and not have to push aggressive volume.
5:04So for us to realistically see a massive increase that is going to justify that early round pick, I do think we're
5:11seeing Nico Collins being drafted above his most logical ceiling.
5:14It's a really interesting spot because he comes in as wide receiver nine ECR overall 15.
5:19So deeper leagues, I'd be like a first round pick kind of like a wheel pick to your point, what you're passing up.
5:26If you're worried about what that production is going to look like, you're passing up the number one tight end who comes in at ECR 16.
5:34You're passing up a couple banger running backs and Devon ancient and Chase Brown, I guess, depending in second one Barkley.
5:41Frankly, if you want to sit in their interest, there's a slew of running backs that are in there.
5:47And then I think maybe an interesting argument you can ask yourself though.
5:51Sometimes there's not much you could do about it.
5:54It's like you have all those running backs and tight ends that are sandwiched in between.
5:59How far off truly do you feel that Nico Collins is from these next tiers of wide receivers from George Pickens or Rishi Rice or a lava?
6:07There's a scenario where like a lava could kind of fall back down and it's like, is it worth?
6:13Is it worth taking him and passing up maybe potential same tiered wide receivers?
6:18You could get a little bit later for the depth at running back or is he that important to you?
6:24I this is a weird one. I'm kind of a tank Dell guy this year.
6:29I talked about it a couple of weeks ago that like I thought the health was starting to look good.
6:35And then there's some videos that surfaced a little bit ago that show just, I mean, great, great, like hard hitting route running.
6:42You kind of hope that that's going to translate into the season.
6:46There's a bunch of past catchers that can he still maintain the shared dominance in there?
6:51So I think it's a fair argument, especially in the idea of what maybe it pushes you to later in the drafts that which creates the real trap.
7:00So he is ECR 15 on the board. I was going to mention another wide receiver that maybe maybe could float around
7:07the same tier, but he is your second trap.
7:09This is a guy that's a little bit further into that third round.
7:14I think from an ECR perspective, he is wide receiver 15.
7:17He's 30th overall, and I did not say his name because you are saying it's a trap.
7:22Teddero McMillan is number two on your list. Yes.
7:25Yeah. And this is again, it's one of those ones that we have to contextualize because again, when we're talking about these
7:32potential traps, we're talking about guys who are factually the wide receiver ones of their team.
7:37You mentioned it perfectly like it was the perfect lead in Chris, the running backs there in round two and kind of
7:44teetering over into round three as well. The 2026 running back landscape is incredibly top heavy.
7:49There are so many guys in round two that have legitimate top three upside.
7:53There are guys in round three that might be more of a stretch for top three, but are still like very secure potential top ten assets here.
8:02They're assets that just don't exist later in the draft, unfortunately.
8:05So when you're looking at a guy like Tedaroa McMillan, his floor, quite frankly, in his ceiling, it does exist later, unfortunately, in mid rounds.
8:13Right. If you waste a premium draft capital on overvalued options, you're kind of setting yourself up to pick from volatile low
8:20floor backfields once that kind of tear cliff hits later on in the draft.
8:25So when I talked about the Texans, right, I talked about them potentially being a league average passing team in 2026.
8:31Like if we get league average from Panthers, it's a great year.
8:35We would be blessed, unfortunately, because the volume just isn't there.
8:38And I hate that because I love Bryce Young and I love Tedaroa McMillan.
8:43I would love it if the Panthers did push more aggressive pass volume, because when Bryce Young throws for volume, there's not a problem.
8:50It's good. It's not as if he's like out there struggling and throwing a whole bunch of interceptions and just looking awful confused.
8:57No, it's perfectly fine. But the Panthers clearly do not want to go that direction.
9:02They want to have a very balanced attack and they want to lean on the ground game.
9:08And they have been very diligent about their offensive line improvements.
9:11And it should be a top 10 unit this season.
9:14And they are clearly prompt about the prospects of a healthy Jonathan Brooks here in a tandem backfield.
9:20Potentially, we've talked about it 10,000 times about who is it going to be Juba Hubbard or Jonathan Brooks.
9:26Can he stay healthy? Right. But at the end of the day, the Panthers want this run game to work.
9:32And we're looking at Bryce Young last year. He had just four games over 200 passing yards last season.
9:38That's not going to cut it. Now, naturally, naturally, as he continues to develop and this offense continues to develop, we'll see a bump.
9:46Right. But we need more than just a bump.
9:48We need a significant improvement here. And I don't see that happening.
9:52And the other aspect here is the Panthers defense is isn't prolific.
9:56But that's another area where they have been chipping away and improving.
10:00And it's good enough. They keep games very manageable to where the Panthers don't really ever have to force aggressive pass volume.
10:07Unless they're facing those outlier L.A. Rams type of teams.
10:10Right. So the result is, is that when it comes to Teddero McMillan, just based off the pure volume of the offense,
10:17the most likely outcome for him is a mid tier wide receiver, too.
10:21Or a low end wide receiver to floor. Right.
10:24Which might seem on the surface like, oh, that's very safe.
10:27But again, there's a lot of guys being drafted around him and behind him at wide receiver and other positions that you
10:34might get to the end of the season, look back and you'd be frustrated thinking if I had just passed over that,
10:41that mediocre production that we got from Teddero McMillan.
10:44I could have had a much higher league winning upside type of player here.
10:48So you're taking a player that has, in my opinion, a very unique combination of a low floor and a low ceiling
10:55because of the lack of pass volume there. Because he's the wide receiver one at the end of the day, it's going
11:02to pan out into a certain total. Right. You'll probably hit a thousand yards with him, but not the level of volume
11:09that we want for the pick that we're investing in him.
11:12I think it's really interesting. I think my focus on that becomes more about roster construction more than anything else.
11:19Like, you know, I'm a little washy on the Nico one.
11:22I thought it was an interesting perspective of like there's that big run of running backs and stuff.
11:28This one really hits home because it's like I don't think Tedderoa is a bad player at all.
11:33I don't even think that's really the argument. You're not making that argument.
11:37But you are in this giant clump. If you look on Fantasy Pros on the rankings, fantasypros.com slash NFL slash rankings, you
11:44see the overall tier four is almost 20 players.
11:47It's around 18 players. The top of it is Tedderoa McMillan.
11:51The bottom of it is 47th and Travis Etienne.
11:53But what I want to focus on is the wide receivers in there.
11:58The bottom end of the wide receivers are guys like Jalen Waddell and Terry McLaurin.
12:02I think guys like Waddell, Emeka Gbuka, Ladd McConkie, I think they're in the same tier as Tedderoa McMillan.
12:08And sandwiched just like we talked about before from Tedderoa, who's at the very top.
12:13Zay Flowers is right below him, by the way, and I'll take Zay Flowers there.
12:18But under, we have another one of those situations.
12:20Multiple running backs. Jeremiah Love, Kyron Williams. There's Josh Jacobs that's in there.
12:25And then there's just a slew of other wide receivers that have maybe similar-ish production.
12:29So the adjustment you could do not to say, hey, Tedderoa McMillan is a trap because he's bad.
12:35It's like, well, no, it can deviate you from a plan that you might want to do.
12:40And then you can jump back and get a similar wide receiver.
12:44I really do vibe with that one. Trap number three.
12:47You are going to be jumping to a running back.
12:50This is a player that's in that sandwich we just talked about.
12:54So this is not going to be apparently one of your pivots in here.
12:58You have your first running back trap of the season.
13:02And he's with the New York Jets. Yeah, I decided to not pick on the wide receivers there and show some of the anti-love.
13:09To the running backs, Brees Hall. So sorry, buddy.
13:12I feel like we, and myself included, we tend to give him a pass because, well, you know, OK, one, the trash
13:19offense that you have been in your entire career is not your fault.
13:23And two, you've got receiving upside. So wonderful. We all know, like in fantasy, hey, as long as I can count on
13:30you to get a certain level of receptions, I feel good about your prospects of being able to pass through a specifically terrible offense, right?
13:38But when you dig a little bit deeper, there are some concerns here.
13:42And again, no concerns around talent. Brees is wonderful.
13:45I wish he had gone literally anywhere else this offseason.
13:48But unfortunately, he is a New York Jet here.
13:51And when we're looking at him in the context of this offense, what we saw out of him last year and the
13:58year before might unfortunately be on repeat. And if that's the case, we're drafting him over a very logical outcome for him.
14:04When we look at Hall stats, I mean, he's maxed out.
14:08Let's look at rushing yards. He is maxed out at rushing yards with 1,065 in a single season.
14:14Looking at receptions, we're going to disregard last season.
14:16Not fair to him. Apparently, the Jets quarterbacks were literally terrified of checking down so they couldn't do it.
14:22So we're going to disregard that for him and then jump back to 2023, the year that he had 76 receptions.
14:29Fantastic. Wonderful. He was RB6 in average fantasy points per game, half PPR.
14:33That came specifically when he was the second best or when the second, actually, he was the second best pass catcher.
14:40The second best pass catcher that was not Breeze Hall was Tyler Conklin, right?
14:44They were very depleted. The quarterback was Zach Wilson.
14:47Then you cut to 2024, the Aaron Rodgers year.
14:50Big improvement in terms of quarterback, right? But still saw a very good amount of checkdowns because that's, you know, Aaron Rodgers is a very checkdown friendly quarterback.
14:58The team was a struggle team. It was five and 12.
15:02Of that season, it's a very similar comp, right?
15:05Breeze couldn't get anything done on the ground because it was a bad team.
15:09Receptions were there. So it wasn't like the worst thing in the world, but it wasn't, wasn't amazing.
15:15Wasn't the ceiling that we were wanting for him.
15:18So I do think that 2024 season is kind of the best comp scenario.
15:22Now let's loop in Geno Smith here because we got a new quarterback in Geno Smith and Geno Smith has no problem checking down, right?
15:30We saw that last season, right? We would expect the rate to look very similar to Aaron Rodgers.
15:36So again, the comp year 2024 makes a lot of sense there.
15:39Um, if the offensive line is bad, Geno Smith will check down to Breeze Hall.
15:44Ironically, again, when you look at the receptions for Geno Smith to Ashton Gentty last season and Aaron Rodgers to Breeze Hall, it is literally the same stats.
15:53Exactly. So I feel like we have already seen this outcome here.
15:57Do we want a duplication of what we have seen before in this offense, right?
16:01And you can make the argument that, Hey, what happens if the offensive line is better and we can get better production on the ground from him?
16:10Well, unfortunately, statistics show that if the offensive line is better, Geno is going to check down less.
16:15And again, we have capped Breeze Hall at around 8,000 yards.
16:19So unless we see some kind of dramatic, drastic improvement from the Jets, we're looking at this kind of stats repeat situation
16:26that we're seeing from him year after year. And unfortunately, again, we're looking at opportunity.
16:30We're going to look back at this and say, Hey, what if I drafted this player instead of him?
16:36It would have paid off so much better. Yeah.
16:39Yeah. And those wide receivers that I talked about that I really like versus Tedro McMillan are below him in ECR.
16:46Garrett Wilsont Wilson is below him. Mecca Buka, Lad McConkie, Jalen Waddle, all players I really like.
16:51I will say this is the one I've not clicked Breeze Hall's name once in any of the mock drafts.
16:58We've got multiple mock draft episodes we've done here on Fantasy Pros.
17:01I've done them in other spots. I have not clicked his name once.
17:05I cannot get out of my head the idea that they would still entertain three running backs.
17:11That's the thing that continues to flow. It's just like a really interesting point you had, by the way, about the theoretical ideas of less checkdowns.
17:19And not only would less receptions be not great, but if they bring it on the ground a little bit more, that
17:26also doesn't fare necessarily as well, unless they would make the commitment different conversation.
17:30If he is the sole guy, if this is a Christian McCaffrey usage situation, we're like, oh, there's other cool guys, whatever.
17:37But it's just going to be Breeze Hall and it's going to be mass, mass volume.
17:42They're just continuously presenting with us the idea that it won't be.
17:46So that does make him, it's a really dicey one.
17:49The better quarterback play is kind of the test case for like why you would want him more.
17:55But the idea that there are still three running backs out there kind of keeps me away from it.
18:01And really more importantly, positionally of where you're at in a draft, as we talked about, there are just so many enticing
18:08options that like 30 to 40 range has just a lot of players that you want to get and making the wrong
18:14choice could set you off in the wrong direction.
18:17But you guys can let us know we've got four and five coming up, another wide receiver and a running back.
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20:41All right. Number four. Tara warned me beforehand and said, all right, I've got my take.
20:46Tara's a great prep set across the board. I got my takes.
20:49She's just said, when we get to number four, strap in, grab a coffee.
20:54It's going to be a bit because you are going to hard sell us on this wide receiver being a trap, so I'm ready.
21:01Hit us with number four. Let's go. It is DJ Moore.
21:05And the reason that I warned you about it is because I talked about DJ Moore on a previous show and there
21:12was pushback in the comments, which is good because I like pushback because that allows me to better reframe things to articulate the issue here.
21:19So going back and looking at DJ Moore, the problem is, is that he is being framed as a safe pick because
21:26he is reuniting with his old offensive coordinator. And what is lost here is just how low his floor can be and
21:33how his time in Carolina does not apply to Buffalo whatsoever here.
21:37We have had back-to-back seasons with fewer than 500 pass attempts for Josh Allen under Joe Brady.
21:42It's not an accident. It's intentional. That is by design.
21:46Brady significantly reduced pass volume in Buffalo, immediately becoming the OC in the middle of the season.
21:51You can go back and look at the exact week.
21:54There was a hard cutoff there. So one little caveat on that one is that you see people say he's going to be the Stefan Diggs.
22:02Nope, that does not apply to Joe Brady. That overlap in terms of positivity, unfortunately, did not exist there.
22:08Now, the volume was prior to Brady with Stefan Diggs.
22:11Now, Josh Allen, looking at him, absolutely. I mean, he's Josh Allen.
22:15He can throw the ball 40 times, 300 yards easily if it were needed, but he doesn't need to on most weeks, unfortunately.
22:22It just works that way. Now, looking at DJ Moore, we need to assess his viability in the Buffalo offense currently rather
22:29than applying his usage under Joe Brady in Carolina.
22:32Because Buffalo and Carolina are two extremely different situations.
22:35Carolina was an objectively awful team under Joe Brady's tenure as offensive coordinator.
22:39Not his fault. Not his fault. The starters were Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold before the Reformation, the ghost of Cam Newton, plus PJ Walker.
22:47It was just a complete mess. And you could argue, OK, well, Tara, that's great.
22:51That's great because that means that Josh Allen is like 10 times better than those guys.
22:56So there's going to be more opportunities for DJ Moore.
22:59Nope. No, unfortunately, because Carolina was so terrible over that time period.
23:03The Panthers had inflated pass attempts in both of the years under Joe Brady.
23:08Carolina saw 100 more attempts each season than we have seen from Buffalo in the past two seasons under Joe Brady.
23:14You can't take the targets in Carolina and just put them in Buffalo because the targets don't exist in Buffalo.
23:20Now, mind you, also, both of those years under Joe Brady, CMC was injured in both of those years.
23:26They had to funnel volume through the receivers. And ironically, which again, does not bode well for Buffalo.
23:32One of those seasons with DJ Moore, he was actually out targeted by Robbie Chosen Anderson.
23:37There is no guarantee for big volume in Buffalo for DJ Moore.
23:41They would have to significantly increase their pass volume for that to happen.
23:45They added DJ Moore to improve the quality of their pass catchers to elevate it, not to make a big dramatic increase in pass volume.
23:53So that's the issue here, unfortunately, with him. This one is a very, very hard fade for me because I understand the
24:00appeal of DJ Moore and getting him into a situation with Josh Allen.
24:04The quarterback is wonderful and we could have this and that, but I don't think we're going to see the amount of
24:11pass attempts that you would hope for in terms of a massive increase.
24:15And if that does not happen, we are again looking at very mediocre season that is often difficult to predict on a
24:22week to week basis with Josh Allen. He's a really tough one.
24:25I can see why people might feel very convicted to talk about it because the incredible analysis that you do, Tara, as you always do.
24:33The only thing I hyper focus on, and this is like a super small thing, is where he's being drafted and the
24:40value versus the bust or breakout potential, if you know what I'm saying.
24:44He is wide receiver 27. You know, that cost is in Bears territory.
24:48You know what I mean? Like the Bear, like obviously this is a perceivable number one.
24:53He's in, we can argue this, you know, better offense or whatever it is.
24:58But, but I agree with you. There are a lot of like different weapons there.
25:03There's a lot of different styles. Allen's going to take it on the ground, like the usage, the big play potential, but
25:09is the value of what his current cost is at 60 overall at wide receiver 27?
25:14I can agree. There might be a few names I prefer better.
25:18I, another player I've not clicked in any mock draft is DJ Moore.
25:22I have clicked Christian Watson. I have gone down a little bit into the seventies and, and messed around and drafted like
25:29a Marvin Harrison or something like that. But you know, in what level does this throw you off and can he not
25:36succeed or at least return that value? That's the big question.
25:40I think that maybe some people are arguing, but I will say if we do this continued experiment of looking the players
25:47in between, when you see Bishel Tootin, you see Jadarian Price, you see Carnell Tate.
25:51There's a lot of upside plays that are coming after DJ Moore, which is going to probably also make me avoid.
25:58But on top of everything else, you make great points about what it's, it's more perceived volume than it is like actual volume.
26:05That's going to come into play. So I know that was a big one for you.
26:10The last one pitch you, you, me and Fitzy have been kind of partners in a lot of shows lately, which has
26:17been a lot of fun, but this is going to kind of pit two of my dear friends against each other because
26:24Fitzy loves Bucky Irving and Tara says Bucky Irving is the final draft trap of the episode.
26:29So Tara's traps ends with Bucky Irving. So why, why do you hate yourself some Bucky Irving?
26:35This is another painful one here. I will say I was a pioneer in the fade Bucky movement this off season.
26:41And I did my job effectively, right? I do like to believe that I am the sole reason.
26:47No, I'm being dramatic. I'm not the sole reason.
26:50I am happy that his ranking has dropped all the way to RB20.
26:54And because I did my job of pushing it back to a more appropriate level, mission accomplished, right?
26:59And so I actually haven't really been talking about Bucky that much because I've been like, ah, you know what?
27:06My problem was that it was just way too high before.
27:09We have successfully pushed it back. I feel much better.
27:12I don't need to talk about Bucky Irving constantly.
27:15I know where you're going with this great, great pre-sell because there is a reason we might need to have a conversation
27:22now that you brought it down because some certain new information might be bringing it back up, I'm guessing is where we're going.
27:29Yeah, you can and you can make the argument, right?
27:32That this is still a, you can actually make the argument that it's both a safe and risky pick depending on how you look at it, right?
27:41You can make the argument that it's a risky pick because it's still a low floor issue.
27:46Because again, you know, we've got the whole, when will he and is he going to be okay recovering from the surgery?
27:53What point do we see him? How comfortable do we feel like it?
27:57We went through the ringer with him last season.
28:00And that's something that lingers constantly, right? That fear of how can we actually trust him with his body, right?
28:06But the real problem here, aside from the injury trust issues, is the backfield mates.
28:11And I wanted to talk about that specifically, that and the offensive coordinator specifically, because I think when people look at it,
28:18they look and they say, look, what Kenneth Gainwell did for Pittsburgh was an outlier last year.
28:23That should not make us scared of Bucky Irving.
28:26And to be clear, that was absolutely an outlier.
28:29That was the result of Aaron Rodgers, who again is checked down friendly, hating all of his receivers outside of DK Metcalf
28:36and force feeding Kenneth Gainwell to the tune of him leading the team in receptions last year, right?
28:41That's not going to happen in Tampa Bay. But if Gainwell is chipping away and taking away at that receiving work, and
28:48then we have some additional touches for him on the ground.
28:52And we've had the Bucks organization specifically saying like, hey, these two players, Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell, they mirror each other.
28:59This was a 1A, 1B situation. We're not speculating.
29:02These are words that they have used. And then you have Sean Tucker, who is already sniping at him at the goal
29:09line last season, throwing in a new offensive coordinator in Zach Robinson that was giving Tyler Algier goal line carries over Bijon Robinson last season.
29:16If he was doing that to Bijon Robinson, what makes you think there's going to be a certain level of it must
29:23be Bucky Irving at the goal line this season.
29:26And he already had an extremely, extremely low and concerning share of touches in the red zone and inside the 10 last year compared to other clear RB1s.
29:35So he's already got that going against him. And you add in a guy who has been known to take away workload from a lead back.
29:43Why should we feel so secure that Bucky Irving is getting a very safe, hefty RB1 workload?
29:48Everything about this situation, him, his injury, the Bucks, the offense, everything, the players, it screams that they are shifting more towards a committee.
29:56And while he is not going to fade away and no one has taken his job at the end of the day, what are we really drafting here?
30:05Because again, you look at the players being drafted around him.
30:08There are definitely some riskier players being drafted around him.
30:11But with risk comes a far higher ceiling than what we're potentially getting here with Bucky Irving and all the potential issues that are interlocking with him.
30:20Interesting names. Definitely going to create some comments. The five draft traps, Nico Collins, Teddero McMillan, Brees Hall, DJ Moore, Bucky Irving.
30:27Also, you know, strategically around running backs and wide receivers, however you play it.
30:31It's a fun list. And I know we'll hear from you guys in the comments below.
30:36Who are your draft traps? Well, guess what? When you comment below and you're subscribed to us, you're already entered into our contest as well.
30:44So feel free to do so. And make sure you go and check out everything we've got with Draft Wizard, where you
30:51can start making your drafts the easiest as possible with the draft simulator.
30:55You can do mocks and minutes. And you can check out the ranks that we were talking about in here with tiers
31:02and more at fantasypros.com slash NFL slash rankings, where you can see ADP, the rankings, more of the industry people putting their ranks in, create TCR.
31:10It's great stuff. Great stuff from Tara. Hopefully you guys enjoyed it.
31:14That is Tara. I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you so much for hanging out with us.
31:19And we will talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
31:23Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
31:26If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
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