The 2nd and 3rd Round of Fantasy Drafts Are All Wrong

Ranked 22nd overall, AJ Brown is a boom/bust candidate with significant upside. The source expects offensive creativity to potentially move him into the slot and horizontal routes, maximizing his talent. Despite some nitpicking, the source remains confident in his ability to produce, comparing his potential target volume to Davante Adams' recent high-volume seasons.

Alec Ingold is expected to provide extra pass protection help, which allows the Dolphins' running backs to focus on route running and mitigates their own pass protection weaknesses.

Breece Hall serves as the benchmark for rookie running back success, having finished as the RB7 in points per game during his rookie season despite a slow start in total touches.

The source ranks Brock Bowers 18th-19th overall, noting he has the rare ceiling to potentially reach 1,200-1,300 yards and serve as a Travis Kelce-level fantasy asset. His historical comps include elite tight ends like Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Aaron Hernandez. The source suggests Clint Kubiak may funnel targets to Bowers by utilizing heavier personnel groupings (12 and 21 personnel), similar to how Jaxon Smith-Njigba was used in Seattle, to maximize his production despite a potentially limited overall passing offense.

The source ranks Chase Brown between 14th and 15th overall, citing his role in an explosive Bengals offense, lack of backfield competition, and improved offensive line. He is a preferred target over Ashton Jeanty, and his production is tied to Joe Burrow's health; he saw 74% of team red-zone snaps last year, finishing as the RB5 in that category.

The source compares AJ Brown's potential usage to Davante Adams' high-volume seasons under Josh McDaniels, where Adams saw 175-180 targets and caught over 100 passes. Davante Adams is used as a historical comparison for AJ Brown's career trajectory, noting his high target volume and reception totals in recent seasons.

Ranked 24th overall (RB12), De'Von Achane is viewed as a high-value pick due to his proven production and efficiency in Mike McDaniel's offense, specifically averaging 7.4 yards per rush when not contacted until beyond the line of scrimmage.

The source ranks Devon Achane 18th overall, expressing concern about the offensive environment compared to previous years, specifically citing Malik Willis's low running back target rate (10%) and tendency to scramble. Despite these concerns, the source acknowledges Achane's elite efficiency (20 PPG last year) and potential to remain a valuable early second-round pick even with a slight regression. The source considers him a better player than Ashton Jeanty and prefers him at the top of their shared tier.

Demario Douglas has established himself as the number three wide receiver on the team's current depth chart.

Ranked 16th overall, Derrick Henry remains highly efficient, ranking as the RB2 in EPA per carry over the last two seasons and RB1 in rush yards over expected last season. He leads all players in projected rushing touchdowns (12.5) in betting markets. Lamar Jackson's presence helps by drawing attention away from defensive ends and linebackers. Historically, he is compared to elite longevity outliers like Travis Kelce, Walter Payton, and John Riggins regarding his potential to maintain high production at age 32+.

Ranked as the 25th overall player, the source expresses strong confidence in DeVonta Smith, noting a desire to have ranked him even higher than his current position.

Drake London is considered a candidate for 1,400 receiving yards. The source highlights his elite target share, noting that only Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase have had a higher target share over the relevant span. He is also noted for his efficiency in the slot, where he excels at generating first downs and touchdowns, though he currently only plays about 30% of his snaps there.

Drake Maye is identified as a superior downfield passer compared to Jalen Hurts, with performance stats validating his effectiveness throwing over the middle and into tight coverage, which serves as a positive indicator for the team's pass-catching corps.

The source ranks George Pickens as their 21st overall player, noting that he and Nico Collins are similar players. He is identified as a candidate for 1,400 receiving yards. Despite a lack of manufactured touches last year, Pickens still produced at a high level, and the source views him as a player who can go 'crazy' and provide significant upside. He is categorized in the same boom/bust tier as Malik Nabers and AJ Brown.

Ja'Marr Chase is ranked as a top-12 overall player and serves as a benchmark for elite target share, trailing only Justin Jefferson. He is also used as the primary stylistic comparison for Malik Nabers due to his ability to win with the ball in his hands.

The source ranks Jahmyr Gibbs within their top 12 overall players, but cautions against drafting rookie running backs early, citing Gibbs as a historical example of a top-24 pick who did not fully blossom until his second season.

The Cardinals coaching staff has mentioned James Conner as part of the backfield rotation, creating a crowded situation for the rookie running back.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's usage serves as a model for the Raiders' offensive scheme; heavier personnel groupings (12/21) accounted for 38% of his snaps and 51% of his production last season, providing a blueprint for how the team intends to funnel targets to Brock Bowers.

Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme, utilizing 21 and 12 personnel, is expected to mask Jaylen Wright's pass protection flaws by getting him out in routes. Wright demonstrated receiving upside by catching five or more passes in four games last season.

Ranked as the 25th overall player, Jeremiah Love is a high-upside RB2 in the boom/bust tier. While the Cardinals' backfield is crowded with James Conner and Tyler Allgeier, the source emphasizes that third-overall picks typically command significant volume. Despite concerns about a potentially messy team environment and the 'Ashton Genty effect' weighing on sentiment, Love is viewed as a superior prospect capable of contributing in both the rushing and receiving games.

Chase Brown's fantasy production is tied to Joe Burrow's health; in six games with Burrow last year, Brown was the RB5 on RB4 usage.

The source ranks Jonathan Taylor within their top 12 overall players and notes he led the league in backfield touch share last season, serving as the benchmark for high-volume usage.

Justin Jefferson is ranked as a top-12 overall player and is cited alongside Ja'Marr Chase as the gold standard for elite target share.

Kayshon Boutte is expected to be traded in the near future, a move that will provide further clarity to the team's wide receiver depth chart.

Ranked as the 22nd overall player, Malik Nabers is viewed as a superior talent to peers like Nico Collins, George Pickens, and Drake London. Despite initial concerns regarding a second surgery and potential PUP status, he is on track for Week 1. The source is significantly ahead of the market consensus (which has him around 30th) and compares his ability to win with the ball in his hands to Ja'Marr Chase.

The source expresses mixed feelings about Malik Willis, noting his improvement as a passer but highlighting his tendency to scramble and his historically low target rate to running backs (10% with the Packers), which could negatively impact the receiving volume of his teammates.

Michael Mayer is integrated into the Raiders' evolving offensive scheme, which utilizes both 12 personnel and 21 personnel groupings (alongside Connor Hayward) to create opportunities for pass catchers like Brock Bowers.

Nico Collins is viewed as a top-five wide receiver based on tape, with significant positive regression expected in the red zone. Despite having the eighth-best opportunity, he finished 26th in red zone production last year, converting only three of 19 red zone targets into touchdowns. The source notes his elite physical profile and efficiency metrics, including being third in yards per target and sixth in EPA per target since 2023. However, the source expresses concern regarding his volume, noting his receptions per game dropped to 4.7 last year and arguing he needs more manufactured touches like screens to reach his full potential.

Despite being ranked in the top 12, Puka Nacua is a major concern after being dragged off the practice field by a trainer.

Romeo Doubs is projected to occupy a static 'X' receiver role within the offense, serving as a secondary option alongside AJ Brown.

Stefon Diggs is cited as a benchmark for the offensive system's effectiveness, having maintained high productivity despite limited snap counts last season.

The Cardinals signed Tyler Allgeier, which adds to the competition in the team's running back room alongside the rookie Jeremiah Love. Tyler Allgeier is noted as a signed member of the Cardinals' backfield, contributing to the crowded depth chart alongside Jeremiah Love.