Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden

TE1 in TE8 usage last year with elite per-route stats: +0.91 EPA per target (led all tight ends) and 11.4 yards per target despite a 4.5-yard average depth of target—a combination the source calls 'completely ludicrous' and 'impossible to repeat.' The source notes such yards-after-catch production typically only comes from 'freakiest tight ends in the NFL.' However, the source is conflicted on Kraft's value because he is a negative regression candidate coming off a torn ACL, though historically 'freak athletes in the prime of their careers' like Malik Nabers have recovered well from ACL injuries. The source concludes: 'I'm very conflicted here what to do with them because I can see this one going either way.'

Potential beneficiary of Bengals' increased play-action usage under new offensive scheme; the source expects more deep shot opportunities as play-action creates single-high safety looks where Higgins and Jamar Chase split coverage, creating favorable matchups.

TE15 in expected half-PPR points last year with 5.4 targets per game through 10 games before back injury; ranked second in success rate, fourth in EPA per target, and fifth in yards per target. Despite being drafted as TE5-7 while finishing TE15 in expected points, the source identifies multiple upside paths: Lions' dome games, weak divisional defenses, and scheme fit. The source states 'I really like his price tag' and is 'in love with Sam LaPorta this year,' citing coaching tree context (Drew Pettigrew, Kevin Stefanski, Norv Turner) that historically targets tight ends at 32-34% rates, similar to Trey McBride's breakout season. He needs more volume than current ADP suggests to pay off, but the source sees the Lions' heavy use of 13-personnel sets (third most over last two seasons, second most passing plays, tied for most 15+ yard passing plays with 28) positioning LaPorta as the lead pass catcher in explosive moments alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Pass-catching running back role is being phased out; the source prefers JK Dobbins straight up over Harvey at this point due to reduced passing game usage and screen pass opportunities expected to shift to Jaylen Waddle and Jonah Coleman.

Pass-catching running back who can work in the passing game for Broncos; positioned as alternative to RJ Harvey for screen pass opportunities in the offense.

Running back 35 on Yahoo in the ninth round represents strong value for zero-hero RB strategy; despite injury history (54 games missed in five seasons, at least four games missed every season), last year's production metrics were elite when healthy: seventh-best yards per carry, fifth in explosive run rate, 16th in yards after contact, and avoided negative runs effectively. On pace for 1,312 rushing yards through 10 weeks with improved offensive line depth. If he plays even 10 games at last year's pace, he pays off his ADP; if he stays healthy, projects as RB2 this season.

Offensive addition to Broncos who already had a functional offense; the source's favorite pick on the board right now. Expected to benefit from screen pass opportunities previously distributed to Marvin Mims, positioning him as a key target in the passing game and representing strong value for the upcoming draft.

Running back usage pattern shows he was benched in pure pass situations in favor of pass-catching specialist Hunter Lipkey, indicating reduced snap share in certain game scripts and potential fantasy volatility despite overall snap count.

The source highlights Jared Goff as an overlooked fantasy quarterback option, noting he has finished as a top-10 fantasy QB historically. The source projects this could be the season where Goff throws for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns, driven by the Lions' collapsed secondary defense and normal offseasons for key pass catchers. The Lions' heavy use of 13-personnel sets (third most over last two seasons, second most passing plays, tied for most 15+ yard passing plays with 28) supports this projection.

Montgomery is a fifth-round pick on Yahoo whose primary selling point is volume, but the source expresses hesitation because volume alone is insufficient justification given his age, lack of explosiveness, and the Texans' offensive line concerns. The source terms him a "desperation running back play" in a volume-based dead zone of the draft, where tight ends, quarterbacks, and wide receivers offer better value. Montgomery's volume upside is complicated by the Texans' offensive line instability and play-calling concerns. Nick Kaye's 19-game sample as play caller shows his ball carriers rank dead last in explosive run rate and fifth worst in dead run rate (zero or fewer yards). While the Texans added new offensive line starters and a run-blocking tight end, the line remains unsettled with Wyatt Teller on fringe retirement, rookie center Kaylin Rutledge, inconsistent Ed Ingram, and injury-prone Braden Smith. Additionally, Woody Marks is expected to split reps, further limiting Montgomery's volume ceiling.

The source likes Kyle Pitts a lot in 2026 drafts, positioning him favorably among tight end options as a preferred value target.

The source is fading Trey McBride, particularly at his Yahoo price tag of $212, indicating he views McBride as overpriced relative to his expected production in 2026 fantasy drafts.

Craft posted 11 yards per target in 2025, a historically unsustainable mark that only elite tight ends repeat; the source notes this is "completely ludicrous to the point that that's impossible to repeat this year" but acknowledges Craft is among the freakiest tight ends capable of such production. He is the closest comparison to George Kittle in the NFL for his ability to catch short or intermediate passes and turn them into longer gains through elite after-catch ability; defenders cannot tackle him on first contact, which the source calls "one of one stuff in the league." He wins in the Texans offense despite the vertical route emphasis by serving as the underneath outlet, leveraging his rare tackle-breaking ability. Coming off a torn ACL, he presents a negative regression candidate, though historically freak athletes in their prime recover well. Craft appears ahead of schedule in his ACL recovery; he is not wearing a bulky knee brace during warm-ups and individual drills, unlike many players returning from injury. His injury occurred cleanly halfway through the season, suggesting a potential September ramp-up followed by a return to fringe top-five tight end status. Craft recently indicated he will come off the active/PUP list very soon.

RB1 goal-line success rate and RB3 EPA per carry (among backs with 10+ carries per game) in 2025; Cowboys projected for sixth-most points in 2026 with stable offense (same coaching staff, OL, QB, WRs); going in round 3-4 but doesn't need to be elite to produce fantasy value given team context and role; the source projects him to finish as RB10 this season, which is strong value at the round 3-4 turn; backup Jaden Blue is undersized pass-catcher who was never an early-down threat, limiting threat to Williams' carries and goal-line work; Hunter Lipkkey may be used in pure pass situations, which could change snap distribution but not goal-line role.

Elite tight end in round two becomes an even more attractive premium pick when second-wave TEs like Harold Fannon are going in round six; the source and co-host both want to draft Brock Bowers as much as possible in 2026, explicitly stating "I like the prices of Loveland and Bowers the most," positioning him as a preferred tight end value target alongside Colston Loveland.

Tight end going in round six, part of a crowded tier of second-wave TEs (rounds 4-7 on Yahoo ADP) alongside Roma Dunay, Christian Watson, Carnell Tate, and Cal Pitts; the source's translation is that Brock Bowers in round two becomes an even more attractive premium pick by comparison, suggesting Fannon's round-six cost makes waiting on later-round TE options less appealing than paying up for elite production early.

Former first-rounder with 1,200 career receiving yards at age 27 is going undrafted; the source notes he's undervalued due to Browns' QB and offensive line issues but would be a top-120 pick with competent quarterback play, suggesting significant upside if Deshaun Watson improves or the team makes changes.

Denzel Boston is the third-latest drafted WR despite being a 39th overall pick. The source expresses low confidence in his 2026 outlook due to red zone role dependency and uncertainty around the Browns' red zone opportunities given the team's expected offensive struggles and Deshaun Watson's poor training camp performance.

The Bengals offense has been incredible when Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and T. Higgins have all been on the field; on plays with both Chase and Higgins over the past two years, Burrow has completed 72% of passes for 8 yards per attempt and a 7.3 TD rate. The source expects this to continue and notes the Bengals are exploring increased under-center and play-action usage (historically 31st in under-center and 30th in play-action), which could create new deep-shot opportunities and schematic variance for Chase.

Luther Burden is drafted ahead of Roma Dunay despite the source believing Dunay has a good chance to match or surpass Burden's fantasy output this season. Burden excels at yards after catch in the Bears offense, but Dunay's route-running and potential WR1 upside position him as a value play relative to ADP.

Caleb Williams has missed Roma Dunay too often on throws; over the final eight games when Dunay was banged up, 27% of the passes and targets in Dunay's direction were deemed inaccurate by charting. This accuracy issue masks Dunay's underlying opportunity and efficiency potential.

Jonathan Brooks is expected to be the primary pass-catcher in the Panthers backfield if fully healthy and is projected to be a Week 1 contributor. The source believes Brooks will form a one-two punch with Chuba Hubbard but will be the lead back if healthy; Brooks was a running back one in his draft class and is participating in his first preseason practice. The source expects Brooks to be drafted ahead of Hubbard by the end of training camp, though plans to rank Hubbard ahead of Brooks by Week 1 pending health developments.

Carolina Panthers RB can coexist productively with Jonathan Brooks despite the latter's return from injury generating significant hype. Hubbard's 2024 performance when healthy was strong: 77% snap share, RB12 overall on RB7 usage, and RB4 in rush yards over expected. His 2025 struggles were largely attributable to injury recovery, not declining talent. The source notes Hubbard has been named a team captain and finished the season with two touchdowns and 17 opportunities in a playoff game, suggesting he remains a viable rusher even with Brooks' emergence. The source expects Hubbard to be ranked ahead of Brooks by Week 1 despite Brooks' current draft momentum.

The source ranks Mike Evans alongside DeVonte Adams in the tier of age-30 wide receivers who have changed teams, positioning him ahead of DJ Moore in their draft rankings. This reflects the source's assessment of relative value among aging receivers in transition.

Buffalo Bills WR is being drafted as WR26 on Yahoo despite coming off the worst season of his career; his yards per game have declined sharply over the last three years (80 → 57 → 40 YPG), even while playing in a Ben Johnson offense in 2025. The source expresses nervousness about Moore paying off his draft price, citing the Bills' recent offensive limitations: 25th and 30th in drop-back rate and 22nd and 30th in percent of yards via passing over the last two years. The source questions whether Moore is good enough at this point in his career to change Joe Brady's offense and the Bills' pass-heavy approach. However, the source acknowledges high-end outcomes are possible and notes Moore's best season came with Joe Brady in Carolina, suggesting a potential path to regression if the Bills return to that scheme. The source expresses concern that Moore's best production may already be behind him and prefers to draft other receivers in this tier rather than Moore at his current price.

Baltimore Ravens WR finished 2025 as WR13 in points per game despite being drafted as WR17, and the source identifies touchdown upside as the pathway to a top-10 WR season. Flowers has never scored more than six touchdowns in a season despite elite yardage production, receiving only 10 red zone targets in 2024 and 17 over the last two years. With new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle replacing Todd Monken (who consistently favored Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in the red zone), the source believes a reset is possible that could push Flowers to double-digit touchdowns. If Flowers reaches 8-10 TDs versus his career high of 6, he would rank as a top-10 WR in PPG scoring. The source notes Flowers is 5'9" and undersized, but cites examples like Rasheen Rice and Amon-Ra St. Brown as proof that scheme can manufacture red zone touches for smaller receivers through motion, stacks, and quick routes.

Atlanta Falcons WR was WR5 in usage from 2024 through week 11, with only Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase posting higher target shares (nearly 30% over a multi-year sample). Despite not being drafted alongside Jefferson and CD Lamb in round one, London matches first-round wide receiver target volume but typically goes late into the second round. In redraft leagues, he falls between elite running backs (Saquon Barkley, Devon Achane, Chase Brown, Amarah Hampton, Derrick Henry, Ken Walker), creating unique value positioning as an island among wide receivers at his ADP. However, London's fantasy ceiling is complicated by quarterback uncertainty and conflicting offensive styles. The Falcons will likely start Tua Tagovailoa, who is dealing with a back injury, over Michael Penix Jr. (who has torn his ACL multiple times). Tua's passing profile—short, middle-field throws—differs sharply from Penix's deep, outside-the-numbers approach. The source notes this creates a 'blender' for analysis because Tua's current version is fundamentally different from his Tyreek Hill-era production, and while quick slants fit London's game, the overall offensive uncertainty and Falcons' roster turnover (offensive line, defense, coaching staff) raise concerns about the offense's readiness.

Arizona Cardinals third overall pick faces significant committee risk with James Connor re-emerging in the running back room alongside Tyler Algier. The source states this three-back committee scenario would be terrifying for anyone spending a two-three turn pick on Love. Historical comparison to Bruce Hall under Mike LaFleur shows rookie RBs are eased in gradually (12, 8, 14 touches in first three games) before ramping up, so Love should not be expected to get 18 touches in game one despite his draft capital. Bruce Hall reached RB7 in points per game under LaFleur despite that slow start, suggesting patience is required. The source would not draft Love unless picking 1-1 overall, as two running backs would be taken ahead of him.

Arizona Cardinals WR has 1.1% career screen rate and WR42 usage ranking over first two seasons, which the source identifies as the primary reason for underperformance relative to his seventh-round ADP (WR31 on Yahoo). Despite leading Michael Wilson in targets in all 10 games together last season, Harrison continues playing an exceiver role without sufficient volume. The source states more screens, slant routes, mesh concepts, and shallow crosses are required to justify his ADP; otherwise there is too much target competition in the offense. Additionally, Harrison is not a manufacturer-of-touches player; his contested grab win rate remains problematic despite bulking to 220 lbs, and back-shoulder timing issues persist, causing him to lose contested situations too often when lighter/smaller quarterbacks throw to him. This profile concern compounds the usage issue, making him risky despite top-five overall draft capital. The source also expresses concern that Harrison could become a wide receiver three if Carson Beck takes over at quarterback after the bye week given Arizona's strength of schedule, with Jacob Brousette expected to open the season but likely won't finish it, creating uncertainty about whether his seventh-round price tag will pay off.

Expected to play week one despite ACL recovery; ranked 25th overall in fourth round but the source calls him the most mispriced player in the draft. If fully healthy, the source believes he'd be a round-one pick next to Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Recovery trajectory is strong—nearly a full calendar year from week-four ACL tear, scar tissue removed, and he can bend his knee clearly at training camp. Running routes with the first team immediately at training camp with no lingering restrictions, signaling full integration into the Giants' offensive system. Giants offense was 31st in points per game during Nabers' rookie weeks 1–4 last year; the source expects significant offensive improvement this season, which should boost Nabers' volume and scoring ceiling relative to his rookie baseline.

The source ranks Rome Odunze ahead of Luther Burden and views him as an awesome dynasty buy because his stock may not be any lower than it currently is, given the fantasy community's focus on Luther Burden and Quentin Johnston as second-year players. Odunze's usage metrics show WR18 in usage and WR22 in targets per game; efficiency improvements and better quarterback-receiver chemistry with Caleb Williams are the primary levers for upside.

The fantasy community consensus ranks Luther Burden ahead of Rome Odunze, but the source disagrees, arguing the gap between the two receivers does not make sense. This suggests Burden's draft stock and ADP may be inflated relative to his actual fantasy upside compared to Odunze.

The source strongly advocates for drafting Ricky Pearsall, criticizing skeptics as lacking film study and being too reliant on spreadsheets. Pearsall was third in the NFL in receiving yards during the first three weeks of last season when healthy, demonstrating elite production. The source projects him as a wide receiver 16 for the season, placing him a tier above comparable ADP peers because his pathway to that production level is clearer than other receivers who have flashed but not yet delivered. The source believes Pearsall will be a massive beneficiary when the 49ers offense comes together, citing Kyle Shanahan's play-calling style as ideal for maximizing his skill set. Despite 99 career targets and fewer than 1,000 yards through two seasons, the source dismisses injury concerns as unsustainable and expresses conviction in continuing to recommend him throughout the offseason.

The source ranks Nabers as the most mispriced player in fantasy right now. Avoiding the PUP list is the most positive news on Nabers in a long time; even if he's active week one and plays throughout the season, he might be a diminished version of himself, but if he's not diminished, he's a true tier-one receiver (top 3–5 in the NFL). Even at 85% of his career production level, that matches historical averages for third-round wide receivers like T Higgins and Zay Flowers. At 23 years old, a freak athlete with no competition at his position, he has upside to go absolutely crazy. The Giants were 31st in points per game when he was their WR1 in his rookie season through week four; if the Giants improve their scoring this year and he's active week one, he should be ranked next to Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown at the two–three turn, not in round four where he's been going.

One of Jakob Sanderson's 5 favorite fantasy football picks; a player Sanderson can't stop drafting.

One of Jakob Sanderson's 5 favorite fantasy football picks; a player Sanderson can't stop drafting.

One of Jakob Sanderson's 5 favorite fantasy football picks; a player Sanderson can't stop drafting.

One of Jakob Sanderson's 5 favorite fantasy football picks; a player Sanderson can't stop drafting.

One of Jakob Sanderson's 5 favorite fantasy football picks; a player Sanderson can't stop drafting.

Underdog Fantasy Football featured Keaton Mitchell as one of their 7 favorite fantasy football running back sleepers for 2024, positioning him as an undervalued gem with breakout potential.