0:00This happens every single year. We watch 18 weeks of football go through the draft for agency and then reset our memory and draft players much higher or
0:10lower than where they finished this past season. Is it right? Is it wrong? That's what this episode is all about. Seven
0:17plus wide receivers that you all, yes you, are drafting with insane confidence. The premise here, Hayden, we're going to name a bunch of wide
0:25receivers who are selected much earlier than where they finished last year and vice versa. So, let's start with that group, okay? And the leadoff man is
0:32Justin Jefferson, who was drafted as the wide receiver six right now over an underdog and finished last year as the wide receiver 37. Does that make sense
0:40to you?
0:41>> Yeah, I think that Justin Jefferson is going to ball out again. I think Kyler Murray is definitely a good enough
0:45quarterback to get the ball to Justin Jefferson. And from 2022 to 2024, uh he had the most PPR points per game at 20.
0:54And most of you guys are drafting in full PPR. Uh, and that's if we remove the Josh Dobs and Jiren Hall games, uh,
1:01he's averaging 100 yards per game. So, like it's really just came down to how bad JJ McCarthy was, which makes me feel
1:07very confident that Kyler Murray is going to easily win this job. I think more or less they've already come out and said that. And Justin Jeff,
1:14nothing's changed about Justin Jefferson. Nothing's changed about Kevin Oonnell. And Kyler Murray wants to throw the ball back shoulders, downfield passes. Uh, that's what Kyler Murray
1:23wants to do. It's what Kevin O Connell wants to do. And it's what Justin Jefferson is. is so good at like I think
1:28we're just going to like throw out 2025, put in the baseline from the other seasons. Could Kyler Murray be as good
1:33as Kurt Cousins? Of course. Uh and I'm drafting him in the first round.
1:36>> Yeah. I mean, he finishes the wide receiver three in points per game with Sam Darnold, then finishes the wide receiver five in points per game with
1:42Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullins. So, it was nothing in terms of Kevin Okonnell putting him in a position of success or
1:49failure last year that led him to the wide receiver 37. It was just all about the quarterback play. Like that that was
1:55the big change here. Again pointing out some things that that Reeves noted. He commanded 30% of his team targets last year, wide receiver 4, 39% of the team's
2:04air yards. That's wide receiver 5. And yet that equal to wide receiver 37 season because of environment. I actually went back and watched those
2:12Nick Mullins games that they played together in terms of homework for this because I thought, okay, we know what he did with Darnold and we know what he did
2:20with Cousins. What can he even do with a quarterback at a tier below that? but also perform better than J.J. McCarthy.
2:28That was my mindset heading into that.
2:29That may be stupid transitional properties, but that's that's what I'm >> I like it.
2:32>> And what I learned is that a quarterback in order to have success in this offense and especially success with Justin
2:38Jefferson is you have to throw into tight windows. You have to stand tall versus pressure, you need to play on time, and you need to trust the plan of
2:46the play throwing with anticipation into zone windows. And if you do all that stuff, then you're going to have success and you're going to have Justin
2:52Jefferson just making freaking plays for you. And simply put, JJ McCarthy could not do that last season. Kyler Murray, and we talked about a wide receiver that
3:01was attached to him last season. It can be up and down with some of that stuff in terms of standing tall and, you know,
3:07not falling away from throws and playing on time. But I also believe that KOC, while the three names that we mainly
3:14mentioned there, like pure pocket, read it out players and throw with anticipation, uh, will also accentuate the strengths that Kyler Murray does
3:22have and does bring to the table. And I think obviously Justin Jefferson's talent is moldable and feasible enough that he is absolutely worth this end of
3:29the first round draft pick that we're spinning in.
3:31>> And Kyler, he has had 88 yards per game seasons with DeAndre Hopkins, another 80 yard season with DeAndre Hopkins. Trey
3:37McBride had 72 yards per game. So like Kyler Murray for has for his flaws has elevated uh players to like really
3:45high-end degrees. last year was really bad with Marvin Harrison, Mu uh Michael Wilson and Trey McBride obviously, but you go back and watch even the the first
3:52couple games of the season last year and I mean if Marvin Harrison caught the football like this the the stat lines
3:58would look a whole lot better and obviously Justin Jefferson will. So, I think that Kyler Murray I think this is going to be like the floor and I think
4:06it's actually a very similar situation to when Sam Darnold got with Kevin Oonnell and that was the floor of Sam Darnold and here comes Kyler Murray and
4:15it's going to be an excellent season to the point I think Kyler Murray is like the sleeper quarterback if you will who
4:23has a chance to be a top five fantasy quarterback that gets drafted like quarterback 12. Uh this is a great environment. this has been the case for
4:30like four or five seasons in a row. It >> it really is as simple as if you trust the environment and don't get concerned
4:37with everything flying around you and just make the throws that you planned all week on time and in rhythm, then you're going to have success in this
4:43offense. And so again, it comes down to the KOC Josh coaching of it all here with Kyler a little bit. But I am
4:50believing that it is possible and it's going to be much closer to the wide receiver six outcome and maybe even ahead of that versus the wide receiver
4:5737 in points per game outcome that they got last year. All right, another one and another big topic here. Uh he
5:03finished as the wide receiver 45 last year, but now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 31. This is Brian Thomas
5:10Jr. What are your expectations for 2026?
5:13>> I think it's going to be pretty volatile week to week because it does seem like he's going to be the vertical element in
5:17this offense. I got him ranked wide receiver 30, so I think he should be ranked ahead of where he finished last
5:22year. I got him I'm pretty much in line in in ADP here. Uh I think that Parker Washington is going to get a lot of like
5:28the the gimme looks. Jacobe Myers is going to run across the middle and get drilled by safeties and linebackers and then Brian Thomas will have some yak
5:36moments, but for the most part will be used down the field in half PPR or half PPR baseball. We don't mind that. in
5:43full PPR uh reddraft leagues uh might be a little bit frustrating for us, but Brian Thomas has been lighting it up in
5:51camp. If you go read Shipley, he's been like one of the MVPs of the offense. Uh Liam Cohen's talked glowingly about him.
5:58And if we zoom back out, wide receivers who drafted in the first round with his speed, who went from who went to LSU,
6:06who had his rookie season, these are some of the best wide receivers in the NFL. I know last year was a complete
6:11disaster. Playing through multiple injuries, uh was not playing confident over the middle. Obviously, the timing, everything was bad. And all those
6:18narratives were true.
6:20>> And still, he's one of the most talented wide receivers on the football field.
6:24Him watching or him pulling away from the DBs. It's like ridiculous to watch.
6:28So, I think for the most part, I'm taking an optimistic look here. I don't think he's going to have, you know, 95
6:34receptions in a season, though.
6:35>> Truly one of the fastest players in the league. like he ranks up there in GPS every single year. It's funny, typically
6:40when we talk about disaster seasons, it means the team also had a disaster year and that's the exact opposite. Like the
6:46Jaguars were freaking awesome in terms of expectations on previous years. Uh and then Brian Thomas was like the letdown piece of it all. You mentioned
6:55John Shipley. We're a fan favorite of John Shipley here. Uh this is what he wrote. The Jaguars scheme focused more on intermediate passing last season than
7:02it did in any other year in Lawrence's career as quarterback. and the Jaguars tried to force the issue with Thomas in
7:08the department a year ago. They entered the year with plans to funnel the entire passing game through him, but drops were
7:14an issue over the middle of the field until they adjusted his role by the second half of the season. And I totally
7:19agree. I mean, you can watch that Bengals tape if you want to, but I watched, you know, all 30 targets that
7:24he had over the middle of the field and he was tentative. It was kind of Jordan Tysonish in some ways where he would
7:29like fall down after the catch, alligator arm it, not come up with these big time catches. Um, and that just comes down to, you know, his pre-season
7:38injury and it mentally impacted him through the entire year. Now, in that absence and what we know about Liam Cohen's offense dating back to the time
7:46with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is like the crossing routes over the middlefield in the intermediate portion is the most consistent element here. And so, in
7:54BTJ's absence, that became Jacobe Myers, that became Parker Washington, who Shipley projects as the player who was going to lead this team in receiving
8:02this year. It is just fascinating to me that in year three, here we are and this is a player who was at the one two turn
8:10last year, then finishes the wide receiver 45 and now we're back somewhat in the middle but not really as wide receiver 31 and it's kind of tough for
8:19me to totally know what the outcome is here other than it's probably going to be the more high variance downfield shotish stuff as you brought up
8:28initially. Yeah, I think the the other big thing with Jacksonville is the two tight end looks and if that's going to
8:33be more of a balanced kind of offense, I do think that Brian Thomas gonna be on the field for those two wide receiver
8:39sets, especially if you're going to do a bunch of playaction deep shots. Like, you have to have somebody that can stretch the field and obviously he's one
8:46of the best field stretchers in the game. So, I do think that he's going to be a near full-time player in the
8:51offense. I think Jacobe and Parker and Travis Hunter, those guys will rotate.
8:55That does not mean Brian Thomas is going to lead this team in receptions is certainly possible. Uh but I do think
9:01the hundredyard games there will be many of them for Brian Thomas this year. It might be difficult for us to predict
9:08half PPR baseball. I really like the price and then uh we'll see where he is in like the Yahoo drafts and uh I think
9:14that I will have some interest there just betting on. Year three player, really fast, really good prospect, sensational rookie season. Uh just
9:22buying the dip. I do want to bring up he was going 12th overall this time last year. Is that 12th overall player still
9:27there?
9:28>> It would require him to work over the middle like you said. It's a very important part of this offense. Think
9:32about Chris Godwin and like those type of guys. You have to be able to do that.
9:35Last year was really bad at it. I think in theory like three years from now we can say like he's a full full router
9:41player. Um it's possible. I don't think it's most likely but it's possible.
9:46>> Yeah. I I think it's not impossible, but closer to that in that exactly what I said and what we heard all last
9:52offseason was that the passing game is going to funnel through BTJ and it makes sense after his rookie year and that
9:58just doesn't have to be the case now because at that time Parker Washington had not broken out. They had not made
10:04the Jacob Myers trade. You know, they had taken Travis Hunter, but we didn't know exactly what his role would be on
10:07offense. We found out in the opening four weeks of the year that it was somewhat minimal and scripted and designed. So, I think they kind of got
10:16to a point where Brian Thomas Jr. uh showed that he should not have the passing game funneled through him, but that doesn't mean he's going to be
10:23unproductive. And we also know that the seasons can be very freaking long. And he also showed extreme talent during his rookie year. So, the upside is even
10:32higher than this wide receiver 31 outcome here, too.
10:34>> I mean, Alec Pierce was a field stretcher only. And then this last season did a whole lot more in the other
10:41parts of the field. like there is player development that happens at least.
10:44George Pickkins was a onedimensional guy and then this last year uh started showing more. So like I think the baseline cases like he will be better
10:51working over the middle than he was the previous season. I also think that Brian Thomas on some of the screens and
10:56remember some of like the little jet plays that they would have with Brian Thomas like shallow crosses as a rookie he would catch those things and be 60
11:03yard touchdowns and it looked like an alien out there. So like I I do think there's some of that potential in Brian
11:08Thomas. So, I think he clearly has the most upside of anybody in this Jacksonville offense uh at at ADP. I just like you said, you can't be
11:16confident it's like going to happen.
11:18>> Sorry to keep harping on this, but I I do think it's again such a drastic conversation that we had a year ago. He
11:22was being selected around names like Puka Nakua, Aman Ross St. Brown, Drake London, AJ Brown at wide receivers. Are we at the point now when we talk about
11:32high variance, more of a downfield threat, open it up for everyone else that he is more heading into this year in the vein of
11:41Jameson Williams and like the peak of what we thought like Gabe Davis could be as this like week- toeek roller coaster.
11:50Like have have we just changed the narrative around Brian Thomas Jr. that much in one off seasonason?
11:56>> Yeah, that's I mean I think that's probably a fair fair point. Like the guys I have him right next to is Carnell
12:01Tate, Alec Pierce, Quinton Johnson, Jordan Addison, Marvin Harrison. Like those guys are all to me it's the same type of player. I think Brian Thomas is
12:08the most talented of all of those guys then that's why I rank him the highest but he's not like as well-rounded as you
12:15know Mike Evans Devonte Adams Christian Watson who I think have just established that they're doing it. So I think that we've grouped these guys together
12:23properly. Um and then it's just like all right we're flipping coins year three breakout like how real is this? like him
12:29versus, you know, uh, Marvin Harrison, Parker, Washington, like those guys. I I do think that his his athletic ceiling is like so much higher than those guys
12:39that I want to draft him.
12:41>> Yeah. But at the same time, when he was on the field with all those guys last year, his target share was much lower,
12:44albeit his targets were further down the field. I would love a Christian Watson-like trajectory for him. That'd be amazing. You know, we saw the early
12:53parts of Christian Watson's career where he was hitting on all the high variance stuff and he was running extremely hot.
12:59And I think you could argue with M.
13:00Jones that was kind of happening with Brian Thomas Jr. a little bit during his rookie year. And then what we saw last
13:05year from Christian Watson, albeit off injury, was much more of a complete player, a third down presence, someone who ran out routes and plays at the
13:15sticks much more often. And if BTJ can kind of, you know, develop into that too, I think it's a possibility and that
13:22would be awesome.
13:23>> So, just at his ADP, are you kind of in or you kind of out?
13:26>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I am. I just, it was more of like a theoretical entire conversation about him right now. Now,
13:33you know me, I'm drafting a lot of Christian Watson, who is in that area.
13:37>> Roma Dunce is right before him. Carnell Tate I'm drafting. Uh, and then it's BTJ and then is Tyler Warren. So, this is
13:43again one of these cluster of of pick areas where I want almost all these names and then I get to other sections
13:48of drafts where I don't want any of the players in about a 12 pick stretch >> and then like I love all those like
13:54borderline elite quarterbacks that get drafted right at him. So, I think like among wide receivers I like him where he's being ranked I think versus you
14:01know the some of these quarterbacks and stuff I think I can be swung this is in in half PPR obviously full PPR things
14:08kind of change a little bit. So, um I'm really excited. I I think there's there's still a ton of potential with
14:13Brian Thomas. And I do think we could look back and be like, yeah, it was probably his collarbone being on sideways was the reason why he didn't
14:19want to get hit over the middle. And I think we would say, yeah, that makes sense.
14:22>> And once again, he is the first Jaguars wide receiver off the board. Okay, before we go any further, if you like
14:29these conversations, hit that subscribe button. Our entire goal this summer is to help you win your fancy football league and, you know, enjoy watching our
14:35content along the way. So, we have hit 173,000 subscribers. We need to hit 175,000 in order to hit 200,000. That's how math works. That's how numbers work
14:45and that's where this channel is going.
14:46So, thank you all who watch and hit subscribe because it is totally free to all of you. All right, let's jump back
14:51up the board and let's talk Devonte Smith. He finished last year as the wide receiver 31, now being drafted as the
14:59wide receiver 11. Obviously, we can say, well, AJ Brown's gone. Of course, that's why he's jumping from wide receiver 31 to wide receiver 11. I want you to go a
15:08bit deeper than that. Why should this ADP still make sense for us?
15:11>> Okay. So, he had a really good rookie season and then since then he's had five games without AJ Brown. He's the wide
15:18receiver three in yards per game. That's at 89 yards per game. On wide receiver, 10 targets, that's nine per game. So,
15:24we're talking about very small sample size here, but in that sample size, Devonte Smith proves that he's been one of the best wide receivers, and it's
15:32only just been about the target volume.
15:35I feel pretty optimistic about the new OC that they bring in. It's gonna be a lot of the Packer stuff, which is not
15:41that dissimilar to what Jaylen Herz is running. Jaylen Herz wants to be and play like Jordan Love down the football field. I think that's very good for
15:48Dvonte Smith. Smith can play inside and outside. He is one of the best wide receivers in the football league. And I
15:55just think that the targets are actually going to come uh with him. So, uh, obviously there's some risk just because of how bad the Jaylen Hurt season was
16:04this last season, but, uh, I think that the this is going to be easily the the number one season he's ever had in
16:10targets in all categories. And I I view him as a quality pick in the third round. It can't go any higher than that,
16:17but I think where he's being drafted is totally fine.
16:19>> Without AJ Brown on the field, as you pointed out, he's had 37% of the team's targets, 2.36 yards per route run. Now you could say,
16:28well, when AJ Brown is out, they didn't have a talent like Mai Lemon on the roster. Maybe even not like a Dante Wix
16:34level talent at the wide receiver room, too. So, uh, now they do. Now they have even more players and Eli Sters and and
16:40other ones that are other options here for >> Devonte Smith. I mean, it is like clockwork, though, where news that we
16:48all expect to happen still impacts ADP somehow in the public. I mean, he jumped from the 31st overall player to the 28th
16:57overall player, and that made him the wide receiver 14 to now the wide receiver 11 just based on AJ Brown getting traded when we all knew AJ Brown
17:05was going to get traded.
17:06>> Yeah. Um, it's less to me about Devonte Smith and more just about a functional offense. Like the more this running game
17:14can get going and it doesn't have to be to the degree that 2024 was.
17:18>> But let's get back to, you know, league average in a lot of ways too in terms of success rate, explosive plays, all that
17:24stuff. Then that just changes the math in the passing game.
17:27>> Yeah. And what Jaylen Herz has shown in the past is when you change the math in terms of the back end and single high
17:33safeties, then he is going to generate explosive plays down the field. And Devonte Smith, even in games that AJ Brown has played, has looked like the
17:42better wide receiver in certain matchups because he is a ball winner. He plays huge. He plays so long and if he gets
17:50one-on-one coverage, he's going to be their go-to man in that department. So, we can talk about the, you know, change in the offensive coordinator and all
17:59that stuff. I am so focused on just having a good rushing attack and how that's going to impact the passing game
18:05success that to me that is like how this entire thing is going to get much closer to the top level offenses that we've
18:11seen in the Eagles in somewhat recent years.
18:13>> Last thing to remember, Eagles last season, Lane Johnson missed a big chunk of it. Landon Dickerson nearly had to retire and you watch Landon Dickerson,
18:20his back is just like he was not nearly the same athlete. And then I think you just can tie it back how many snaps, how
18:26many runs they had during that that Super Bowl run the following season that like their bodies just like did not have
18:32enough time to recover. And hopefully uh this year after not making it far in the playoffs at all, uh that they should
18:39just be healthier right now. And I think that's a huge deal for for a quarterback that plays like Jayen Herz does. One
18:45more who's being selected much earlier than where he finished last year. And I can't wait for this conversation. That's Josh DS of the Indianapolis Colts.
18:53Finished last year as the wide receiver 56 in points per game. Let's also remember where the Colts finished offensively. And now he's being drafted
19:00as the wide receiver 43.
19:04Where we at with Josh Downs and how his role can grow and if the Colts can maintain their level of success like
19:11they did last year. I mean, there's really no excuses for him to not play more. Just looking at the depth chart,
19:17like you remove Michael Pitman and all of a sudden, like it needs to be Josh DS and we got a report, gone are the days
19:24of Downs being used as a as a slot receiver. Stiken plans to move DS all across the formation, which he typically
19:31already does, giving him ample opportunities to play on the outside and exploit mismatches against opposing defenses. DS was seen on the outside
19:38plenty of times already at mandatory mini camp making plays no matter which quarterback was targeting the offense.
19:43That comes from Sports Illustrated. So, there's at least some evidence that he's going to be playing in two wide receiver sets. And if he does play in two wide
19:52receiver sets, this ADP is just straight up wrong. Especially because Alec Pierce is very clearly in the middle of a rehab
20:00uh for a surgery he did not want to have and it was a little bit delayed. So, uh, if Alec Pierce has a step back, big news
20:05for Josh D.S. If Josh D just plays two wide receiver sets, that's big news. If we get both those things together, he's
20:11going to be one of the best wide receiver picks out there. And, um, he's not like the traditional like wide receiver, like slot wide receiver. Like,
20:18he makes some serious plays down the football field. I'm sure that you're going to bring those up.
20:22>> I mean, I want to believe in Josh Down so much. The passing game revolved around him at UNCC when he was attached
20:29to Drake May during that time, right?
20:31And he was like a slot plus receiver. He was winning down the field. He was winning in isolation. He was great in
20:37zone coverage too. But obviously at his frame, at his size at 5'9, 171, as soon as you enter the NFL, you are
20:46pigeonholed as a player because everyone does it. What I am afraid of, and I went back and you know Reeves has talked
20:53about this, he Josh Towns has only run 33 routes in one or two receiver sets in his entire career so far.
20:59>> Yeah. Not good. So, I didn't want to go and watch those 33 routes because he might not even be targeted in those
21:04options. Instead, last year, because this is, you know, a Daniel Jones and Shane Syen operation, I went back and watched his 16 targets listed as an
21:12outside wide receiver. Unfortunately, even when you're listed as an outside receiver, sometimes that means you are motioned into a stack. Other times, it
21:21also means a tight end or a wide receiver is motioned outside of you. So, the leverage changes at the time of the
21:28snap. And so it's not true like on the ball pure outside two wide receiver stuff. And he's still gonna move around
21:34even if he earns two wide receiver things. I was a bit nervous about what I saw just because it still felt like in
21:40those moments Shane Syik didn't want for him to operate as like a real wide receiver. He had a 5.4 AOT. It was you
21:48know some screen passes. It was speed outs. It really was nothing nothing down the field. So on paper, he should no
21:58matter what get two wide receivers at stuff. That is the first bar to clear.
22:03And even if he clears that, I think this ADP easily is undervaluing him. I do have some level of question that he's
22:12going to be highly successful with that.
22:14But at the same time, I believe in him and I want him to be successful because I do think he is maybe one of the more
22:20not overlooked but underused wide receivers across the league. But at the same time, I also will know why it didn't work if it doesn't work.
22:28>> Yeah. I mean, he's just he's drafted ahead of where he was this last season, rightfully so, but I do think there is a
22:35just ceiling to his game because of the size and you know, like we've we've kind of hoped that DS would kind of grow into
22:44this role uh that we're we might be getting this year. Jeten Reed, it's been the same way. So, like it would not be
22:49that surprising if he's not out there for all of them. Uh >> but like he goes around ahead of Michael Pitman for example and we know what
22:57Michael Pitman is uh and how he and we will talk about Michael Pitman here in a moment right um he's going ahead of
23:04Jacobe Meyers who really brought you know stability to the Jaguars. So, it's not like we are getting to me Josh Towns
23:12at much of a discount per se. Like, we are still having to invest a premium wide receiver pick in him where there
23:20are more stable options around, but I would still take him ahead of someone like Xavier Worthy, for example, who is going two wide receiver spots after him.
23:28>> Could you go up to the depth uh knockdown? And there should be a wide receiver tight end. I'm curious because
23:33he's the third uh tight uh wide receiver/tight end. So, we have Alec Pierce is the second uh colt. If you go
23:40to the third option, I'm guessing Downs is one of the first third options we're drafting in fantasy. And that makes me a
23:46little bit nervous. Um >> just because we're we're trying to get a lot of things right. He is. So, >> it's Roma Dunay, Jaden Reed, and then
23:55Josh DS is the next one.
23:56>> Yeah, my my ranking is pretty close in ADP, and that's with me um assuming that he's going to play a lot more snaps than
24:04he ever has. uh and discounting with the Alec Pierce stuff. Um it's it to me it's just still hard to get to like the
24:11Quinton Johnson upside that's going the around ahead. Like I think that's gonna be a full-time player working on the football field in a pass versus offense
24:18and I'm not sure if we're going to be able to say all those things with Josh Down. So I like him don't love him.
24:22>> Well you made a great transition for me which by the way we've already covered the likes of Lad Mani who is drafted as
24:28the wide receiver 17 finish as the wide receiver 35. Terry McLaren drafted as the wide receiver 23, finish as the wide
24:34receiver 32. Luther Burton drafted as the wide receiver 21, finished as the wide receiver 54. So if you want to hear
24:40more about those names, we have them in other videos. So click those and watch them right after this. But you talked
24:46about Quinton Johnson. So let's have another one of these conversations because he's the exact opposite. He's drafted much later than where he
24:53finished last year where that was as the wide receiver 22 in points per game. and now you can get him as the wide receiver
25:0038 in drafts. Does that make sense to you?
25:03>> No, I think this is a absolute no-brainer selection. I think just zooming back out with Quinton Johnson. I had him as a second round uh prospect
25:13who needed development. His rookie season was really bad. His last season was certainly better and he was doing real stuff. And then this year, I'm
25:22expecting the offense to go from about league average to one of the best in the the NFL. And if you go listen to our
25:28Reeves episode, he was talking about, you know, Justin Herbert might be the dang MVP because the Shanahan branch whenever they have an elite quarterback,
25:36they go absolutely crazy. So, uh, we've seen the new OC really talk glowingly about Quinton Johnston. The another big point I wanted to bring up is uh Justin
25:46Herbert's uh uh footwork has changed where now his left foot is in front, which just makes uh like the the quick
25:53hitting stuff uh in the offense easier to transition to and it's going to be less really deep drop backs. I do think
26:00Quinton Johnson can be utilized in the yards after the catch roll. Um to me, he's kind of yak immediately or down the
26:08football field and everything in between is kind of lost with Quinton Johnson. I think you can do that with with the
26:13McDaniel offense and we've seen that with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Wadd like it's kind of not that much in between but down the football field or
26:19underneath and go I think that he's going to be involved here. So I think Lad Mcconkey Quinton Johnson all these guys I want to draft but Quinton
26:26Johnson's terrible rookie season I think has created a discount and I want to predict the future not draft him based off his 2024 numbers.
26:34>> Again this goes with quarterbacks this goes with other players. So often their rookie season kind of becomes the pillar that then we judge everything off of.
26:45Whereas some people just have poor rookie seasons because of a whole bunch of things going around. And that was the case here with Q.J. He had obvious flaws
26:52and he's kind of cleaned up and you know smoothed out some of his rough edges.
26:57There was an awesome clip that you referenced of Mike McDaniel talking to QJ during OTAAS. He said, quote, "Your drive phase is going to the league
27:06up, and I want to protect that.
27:08>> Prefer to not see you be comfortable at the top of a stick until August because you have so much drive phase and weight
27:18that if you really utilize the drive phase, it's not going to be as clean and 90."
27:24>> And that's what I want. you'll you'll tighten up the turn as it goes, but that your drive phase right now is going to
27:32the league up and I just want to protect that at all costs.
27:35>> And by that he means that he wants him just running full speed right now and that in August that's when he's going to
27:41clean up the turns and the breaks in his routes, which I thought was really cool.
27:46You know, wide receiver coaching, which Mike has a history of. He's talked at length about like coaching Andre Johnson when he was this, you know, young skinny
27:55guy and how can I give you, you know, more help and more development and how can you trust me? It's just from
27:59improvement. Um, yeah, I mean, Dolphins had the second highest scoring team in 2023. So, if Reeves and what you just said comes into fruition, that season
28:07gave us Tyreek Hill, the wide receiver, one in points per game, and Jaylen Wadd, the wide receiver, 22 in points per
28:12game. So, this passing game can get to a point where it supports two startable fantasy wide receivers on a weekly basis. We really not having to pay for
28:23that, getting Quinton Johnson outside the top 36 wide receivers at this point.
28:28Now, we can throw in Trey Harris and what we like about him and maybe the Chargers do and all that type of stuff,
28:33but if you ask me right now, who are they going to be the two most productive wide receivers on this team? It's Lad
28:39and it's QJ. And there's a decent chance that both finish as top 26 wide receivers this season.
28:45>> Yeah. And there's a chance that Quinton Johnson outscores Lad depending on the format >> like he did last year >> like he did last year, you know, and
28:51like these guys are being completely and like I say this as somebody that's been a Quinton Johnson skeptic since I watched his film at TCU, which I did not
28:59love. It might just not matter. Like we said, it's just downfield passing with Quinton Johnson's speed and then the yak plays that Quinton Johnson's going to
29:08have because of the the new OC and that they they have both tackles healthy and that'll just allow Justin Herbert to
29:14actually read things out. Like there's a lot to like with Quinton Johnson and if if he had a decent rookie season, he
29:20would be priced in the fourth round. Um, >> yeah, >> I think some of the issues last year that he just didn't have stats in
29:26certain games, like he had fewer than 50 yards in half of his games last season, two games with zero catches. You would
29:33like to think that was a Greg Roman special and Mike McDaniel is going to get him a bit more involved. But we even
29:38know that like again in Jaylen Wadd's wide receiver, 22 points per game season, there are some times where it just doesn't work. like the wide
29:46receiver 2-3 territory. It's a roller coaster, you know, and that's what we should expect here no matter what. Yeah.
29:53I mean, I went back and watched QJ just because I want to see what some of the differences were. I still don't think
29:57he's going to be an early separator ever, but he does have the stride length and the long speed to pull away on
30:03intermediate and deep crossers and those inbreakers. And like that intermediate and inbreaker stuff has actually been a lot of the most successful years in 2023
30:12with the Dolphins. Maybe some of that was, you know, to his arm, but like Tyreek and Jaylen Waddle, that was their
30:19most productive areas of the field. And I really like QJ in some of those routes.
30:22>> Yep. Yeah. I really have like nothing bad to say about this price tag.
30:25>> No, me either. I mean, you really shouldn't. And and look at this. I mean, ADP has continued to climb up from
30:31starting at 94 in Midmay overall up to 80th overall at this point and then wide receiver 43 up to wide receiver 38. And
30:40I still think wide receiver 38 is undervaluing him. I got my wide receiver 33 right next to Alec Pierce and Carnell
30:46Tate. And it's like really like who's gonna score more fantasy points, Quinty Johnson or Carell Tate? Like I think like truth serum I would be like yeah
30:53it's probably going to be Quinty Johnson.
30:54>> Wow.
30:55>> All right let's talk about Michael Pitman. He finished last year on the Colts as wide receiver 28 in points per
31:01game. But right now you were able to draft him as wide receiver 48 in points per game. For me, Hayden, like if you
31:09watch him, it's glance routes, RPOS's, quick hitting slants, crossers out of tight formations on boot action as well.
31:18Even screens out of stacks, too. And we have said this and we'll repeat it because that's what you're supposed to do when it's a good line. Aaron Rogers
31:25turned DK Metaf into Michael Pitman Jr.
31:28last year, and now he just gets Michael Pitman Jr. in this offense in the areas that Aaron Rogers loves to throw the
31:35football to at his age 40-ish season.
31:38>> Yeah, he's one of the the later drafted uh wide receiver twos, so kind of in the middle rounds. And I just think that
31:44he's a a really strong selection. And I don't think that the gap between DK Mechaf and Michael Pitman's all that large in terms of fantasy just because I
31:53think DK Mechaf's going to go back to this downfield role and I think that Michael Pitman is going to do the
31:58Michael Pitman stuff which is what Aaron Rogers likes. Uh 775 yards that seems totally appropriate. I don't think we're chasing a ceiling here to me. He's, you
32:07know, one of the first wide receivers on your bench by weeks come, injuries come and you have to throw him in there and
32:12just like praying for, you know, nine PPR points, >> right? I think like that's what he's going to be able to do. I don't think
32:18that Rogers gonna like turn the corner.
32:19I think Rogers is what he is. It's going to be a balanced offense or offensive line rules. Uh but Michael Pitman should
32:26be the guy like on those like, you know, audles, those checks at the line of scrimmage and Rogers throws the ball uh
32:32immediately. I think those are going to more likely go to Michael Pitman this year than the DK MAF.
32:37>> Just to outline that comment about turning DK Metaf into Michael Pitman last year. Last year for DK, uh, less than 20% of his targets were 20 plus
32:46yards, 44% of his targets were 0 to9 yards, and a career-high 12% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage. DK had never had a combo like
32:54that during his NFL career so far. I mean, his career, AOT dropped from 14 down to 11 last year. So, you were
33:01begging for someone to win in the trash, in the muck, over the middle, on these quick hitters a bit more often. And
33:07that's why they make the move for someone with Michael Pitman and gave him more money on top of it. Yep.
33:11>> You know, >> um, now I do want to say that Michael Pitman did have an awful back injury that he played through in 2024. That was
33:18one of the crazier news item and then outcomes that I can remember doing this in fantasy football where there were reports that he was going to be sheld
33:27for like nine weeks. He missed one week of action and then just played the rest of the year. So, the dude is a freaking
33:35warrior on the field. But, uh, I do want to note that one, we might have seen already the best of Michael Pitman Jr.
33:42Uh, but two, even close to that would make him, I think, a consistent option in this off.
33:48>> Yeah, I just not expecting a big ceiling in Pittsburgh offensively. So, you can only draft him so high, but I do think
33:54he's a really solid player. I just think I think he's he is exactly what Aaron Rogers likes at this stage. So, I think
34:00him versus DK Metaf, it's about a coin flip. And I think his presence made me pick DK Mechaf as one of my faves. I
34:07forget exactly which episode it was, but I had to talk negatively on DK Mechaf just because of this point that you're
34:13making.
34:13>> The last name in this group is actually Michael Wilson, a channel favorite, finished last year as the wide receiver 24 in points per game and now you're
34:22able to draft him as the wide receiver 44. Is that right?
34:27Well, I'm nervous about these Cardinals.
34:30Uh because if you look at like the wide receiver, tight end three in the offense, like Michael Wilson gets drafted pretty early among wide
34:40receiver/tighten three like in the pecking order and this we know this team's going to stink. So that that immediately makes me nervous. Uh and he
34:49broke out without obviously Marvin Harrison. I do think it's like a I can probably make the argument Michael Wilson's a better wide receiver than
34:58Marvin Harrison is right this second, but you should be expecting Marvin Harrison to take steps still because he's he's a little bit younger than
35:05Michael Wilson. I just don't have the confidence in that in week one with everybody healthy that he's going to project well and then when week 10 comes
35:12around and Carson Beck's the quarterback, like I I'm just struggling to see how these guys pay off these ADPs across the board. I like them
35:21individually to like some degrees, but man, I just think three Cardinals pass catchers by the eighth round, like do we not see how this can go wrong?
35:31>> We need Jacob Brouset to start for 17 games. I mean, >> it's not going to happen.
35:34>> And it's not going to happen. You know, he might even start seven games with how this offseason is going so far. And
35:39that's frustrating. I went back and watched early season Michael Wilson compared to later season Michael Wilson because you know we got five games of
35:46Kyler as a starter and that was arguably like the worst we've seen of Kyler Murray. He was you know falling away
35:52from throws. It felt like every time he targeted Michael Wilson it was kind of offtarget either an overthrow or off the
35:58frame for a back shoulder and they just weren't in seek at all in these crossing routes too. And then freaking Jacobe
36:05comes in. The touch trajectory the timing of it all seemed like just the perfect fit. Now, you know, he was second among receivers and receptions at
36:1556, second in receiving yards at 775 over the last eight games of last year.
36:20We know Marv only played three of those eight games and was actually a part-time player in those three games. So, that
36:26plays a part here, too. Um, but at the end of the day, like unless the Cardinals shock the world this year,
36:34we're not getting 17 or maybe even 12 or maybe even eight games of Jacob set at this time. So, I have more confidence in
36:42Michael Wilson with Cobra Set. Like you, I know that Michael Wilson is good at the game of football. I just don't know
36:49if this is going to be the environment for him to be able to expand that eight games to 17 game sample from the last
36:57two years. Yeah. But is it fair that he's all the way down at wide receiver 44? I guess after he finishes wide
37:02receiver 24.
37:03>> I think it's totally fair. I just don't want to draft either one of these guys.
37:06And I I'm I haven't been drafting Trey McBride either. You know, I think Marvin's to me like the the clearest fade of them just because I don't think
37:14he's going to be a volume hog uh with Trey McBride there. and I'm not convinced that he's actually that much better than Michael Wilson. And then
37:22just to put the numbers on it, there was uh 10 games last year where Marvin Harrison had at least three targets in
37:30the games. Michael Wilson in those 10 games averaged 27 yards per game. His target share in those games was at 13%.
37:38His expected points was six half PPR. He actually had five half PPR. That's called the waiver wire. So, uh, I I just
37:48I'm just worried that and that's that.
37:50And by the way, the Cardinals last year were first in pass attempts.
37:53>> That might not happen. So, I >> I'm not going to draft these Cardinals this year. Like, there's there the skilled guys are too good for how bad
38:00the quarterback situation is going to be.
38:02>> We just did an episode with Ron Stewart talking about Jeremiah Love. Go and watch that. Uh, because that's a slightly different conversation.
38:08>> Yeah, Love's fine. Love's going to be fine.
38:09>> Okay, we've covered all those names.
38:11There is an interesting section in drafts right now of unsigned veteran wide receivers that are out there and some or all will find teams.
38:23Uh their names are Brandon Iayuk, Debo Samuel, Stefon Diggs and even Keenan Allen and Keen Allen is somewhat of the latest one with news. I saw a Colts beat
38:34writers say that they could potentially sign Keenan Allen which would you know dip into our Josh DS conversation there.
38:40That's for sure.
38:41>> Exactly.
38:41>> Because Keenan played for Shane Syiken with the LA Chargers and quote if Pierce's ankle recovery is slow it makes even more sense. So maybe that's more
38:51>> Alec Pierce insurance then it would be Josh DS but I think it would also overlap there a bit more often. Anyways,
38:57as we just talked about with the Devonte Smith ADP rise when AJ Brown uh was traded, if any of these players sign, as
39:07soon as they do, they will shoot up draft boards and their ADP will climb instantly. So, give thoughts on one or
39:14all right now.
39:14>> How I would rank him would be Diggs, Aayuk, Debo Keenan. Uh if they were just signing to all the same team, I thought
39:21Diggs season last year was really good.
39:23He's going to sign with a team shortly.
39:26Uh his uh legal case is behind him. The NFL is not going to suspend him. And he's going to sign a team instantly. And
39:34there's a couple pretty good landing spots available. Like well, I think the Chiefs would obviously be one. The the Colts have a starting spot available to
39:41him. The Commanders do. Um I think that Aayuk is about to um move teams here. I think that he's going to force the the
39:4949ers by showing up. Uh, and he seems to at least be in shape for as crazy of this offseason has been. Uh, so I think
39:57that Diggs is probably not going to climb too much more. He's he's the one that should be ranked uh the highest
40:03right now. I think the IU stuff's going to look really silly. And I think the second he goes on the Commanders, he
40:08will be drafted right next to Rasheed Shahed, Omar Cooper, those types. Uh, and if he does it soon enough and there's a good training camp clip, he's
40:17going to go ahead of Coker and Khalil Shakir and Jaden Higgins and those guys even a round or so above that. So, like
40:24I'm loading up on Brandon right now and I think that this thing will get buttoned up soon enough and if I'm wrong
40:31here, well, Calvin really is probably not going to score points. Uh, our guy Bernard's probably not going to score very many.
40:38>> What about Jerry Judy? Ian Hardit's most drafted player, 67% of drafts.
40:42>> I I did not name him. I like Jerry Judy.
40:45I like Adnai Mitchell. I like Brandon Iuk at these at the end of these drafts.
40:48Okay.
40:49>> Um I just think that I of them like this this is just going to look silly.
40:53>> Well, it is unsurprising that during the timing and taping of the show, Bren posted another video on Instagram. It was of him holding a football with a
41:03commander logo on it and the caption at the bottom reads, "Quote, the best team in the world." Uh, just a couple days
41:11ago, Brena also got on Instagram and just said, "Go commanders. Go commanders. Go commanders."
41:16>> Yeah.
41:17>> In that same time, uh, his longtime teammate in George KD got on part of my take and said, "Yeah, you're right. I
41:27would wouldn't be happy either if a team paid me $130 million and he said good luck with all that uh to PFT in terms of
41:37hey we're going to sign Brena and it's all going to work out well. So I mean >> I don't know what to think you know are
41:44you going to get nice excel CV value once Bernayuk hits 100%. Do I think when Bernayuk has been on the field in the
41:54early parts of his career, was he one of the more underrated route runners across the league? 100%. I mean, the dude could
42:01flat out win versus man-to-man coverage and looked exceptional.
42:05>> Uh, I also think that >> it's been weird this off seasonason, man. I mean, beyond weird. This is not normal behavior. Uh, and so I don't
42:15think you can predict normal behavior once he reaches an NFL team. And I have no idea. I have no input of what the
42:24outcome is going to be other than if he signs with the Commanders, he is their second most talented wide receiver and
42:30his ADP is going to be up, but I have no clue what that means in terms of staying on the field, success on the field, and
42:36how that's going to look actually on the field.
42:38>> Yeah, I mean, there's not a wide receiver with nearly the path to upside that compares to him within many, many
42:45rounds of where he's currently being priced. Um, and none of these wide receivers have any floor. You're telling me that Calvin really has any floor?
42:51Tank Dell has a floor. I mean, he might not even play. Those are the guys that he's sandwiched between. Where where
42:55where would you actually draft Brandon Nauk? Let's say he signs on the Commanders halfway through training camp. Let's say it's August 10th and he
43:02has a couple weeks to prepare. He's out there. He's healthy. We have some positive signs and like I mean Kh Shakir
43:09or Brandon Nauk like for real.
43:11>> Yeah. No, I'm I totally hear you. like, you know, we are drafting Antonio Williams with the faith that he's going
43:18to be a top two or three target getter on the Commanders at the middle of the 14th round right now. I keep talking
43:24about it. It is disgusting to draft like any wide receiver round 12 and beyond.
43:31And there might be three or four that I actually want to draft that entire way.
43:36So, if you want to make it in the 12th round, 100% be my guess. Um, >> and it sounds like you want to take him
43:42even earlier than that when we just talked about Jaylen Coker for example.
43:45But like that's Jaden Higgins above that and then obviously Cleos Shakir's in that area too. Like I I don't want him
43:51to pass the Matthew Golden threshold.
43:54>> No, he won't. And I think like I would still rather have Coker than like whatever the hell this Brandon Auk
43:59experience is. But like I mean Trey Tucker or Brandon I mean like I think that's where like he should be drafted
44:06where Diggs is being drafted. I think that that's like factoring in a lot of the risk here.
44:13>> The only thing though with Aayuk, it is one team. It's one team or bust. So, do you think that there already is a back
44:20channel deal that is done?
44:21>> Yes. Yes.
44:22>> Okay.
44:22>> I think he has to he has to force the 49ers to release him, which I think the quickest way to do that is to show up at
44:28the facility and then I think he would get released then. So, I'm waiting for that to happen.
44:32>> This is always a great exercise. Again, we go through 17 plus games. These players put on the field where they
44:41actually finish in fantasy football, and the next season starts because of an offseason, because of changes, and we draft them entirely different than where
44:48they finished the previous year. Uh, and we have to figure out if that's right or wrong.
44:51>> Yep. And then running backs will do the same version of it. And that one's even more fascinating because I think the
44:56running backs are still underpriced.
44:58They're priced up and they're still have not moved enough if you're looking at half PPR. And I've got some evidence for
45:03that.
45:04>> Well, be on the lookout for that running back show here in the next couple days.
45:07It'll be in your feed this week. All right. Shout out to Mosho and Weaves behind the scenes and all of you that
45:13have watched and hit that subscribe button. Means a lot to us. Up the villa, everyone. We'll talk to you in the next
45:19episode. See you.
