0:00Yesterday we covered the wide receivers.
0:02Today it's the running backs that you all are drafting with extreme confidence. Yes, 17 games were played last year. Either these names gave you
0:10joy or plenty of grief. They were on your roster and now we have a draft and free agency in our back pockets and they
0:17are being selected in a much different draft slot than where they finished last season. That's what it's all about.
0:23Names drafted much earlier or later than they finished the 2025 season. And speaking of earlier, Hayden, I mean, the prices on running backs this year are
0:32higher than ever. Uh, are they even high enough? I think that's a question worth asking.
0:36>> Yeah, I looked into this. So, what I did here on this this crazy chart here is I looked at where they finished last year
0:42in fantasy points over placement per game. So, that's my favorite metric to look across fantasy positions. Uh, and then I compared it to the underdog ADP.
0:50So, this is both half PPR on the scoring and on the ADP here. And I took the top 25 biggest differences on each side. So,
0:57players getting drafted way earlier or way later. And you see on the running backs chart, almost all of the 25 guys
1:05being drafted after where they finished last year are running backs. So, even though the prices are up right now, if you're just looking at what happened
1:14last season versus the price tags, the running backs as a whole have not moved high up enough, which is pretty crazy.
1:21And that goes from like the top end guys, you know, your Derrick Henry's, Devon AS, Kairen Williams, all the way to the next tier like the Raandre
1:28Stevenson's, Tyrone Tracy's, Woody Marks. Those type of guys are being drafted way, way later. There's only a couple exceptions where running backs
1:36are now being drafted a lot earlier than where they finished last year and they're pretty obvious like Bashel Toton going into a bigger role. But just in
1:43general, running back prices are up and I would argue not high enough, folks.
1:47Well, we'll talk about that as we go along in this episode and obviously this summer when we talk about draft strategies, but let's dive into some
1:53specific names. We'll talk about the much earlier ones to open. And this goes to the top of the draft. I mean, Saquon
2:00Barkley is drafted as the running back seven. He finished last year as the running back 15 in points per game.
2:07Hayden, I think there is an argument to make that Saquon Barkley, despite being at the one-two turn, which is an high
2:14pick for all of you, is still potentially one of the most undervalued assets in fantasy football this season.
2:19>> I got him ranked 11th overall. He's my RB5, so I'm with you. This isn't in half PPR here. There's just a lot of positive
2:25updates for this year's Eagles versus last year's one. Offensive coordinator, we're expecting that to get better.
2:30Offensive line health should get better with Lane Johnson and Dickerson and those guys missing time or playing through injuries. And then Saquon
2:37Berkeley uh Barkley only converted one of his 11 goal line carries for touchdowns last year. That's just going to get better uh as the entire
2:45environment around him gets a little bit better. Um so yeah, I'm not expecting this to be the 2024 version, but could I
2:50sandwich, you know, 2024 versus last year and come up with a win? I certainly can. So I think it comes down to the
2:57offensive line health plus offensive coordinator. And I thought Saquon Barkley largely looked about the same as as he did the year prior uh when he was
3:05one of the best running backs in the league. I think maybe slight decrease.
3:08Uh he's 29 years old now, but for the most part, he's going to get the rock a ton. And if they ever got away from the
3:14tush push stuff, like you can add a couple more touchdowns to that. And >> I think there's a possibility that they
3:18do that Jaylen Hirs just doesn't want to run as as much as he used to and get put in those situations as much as he used
3:24to. just overall top-down view of the Philadelphia Eagles. The most important part for them is about getting this running game right. You know, so much of
3:32the conversation this summer is going to be about what Shawn Manion is going to do with Jaylen Herz and Devonte Smith
3:38and take this passing game, you know, to the next iteration of it. But to me, none of that matters unless they can get
3:44this running game back to closer to where it was in 2024 because that is what changes the math. That is what
3:52changes the defense and the coverage more often than what Jaylen Herz is going to be as a pure pocket passer and
3:58pick apart a defense. I mean, even last year in a down season again as the running back 15 in points per game, he
4:04still was the running back seven and expected fantasy points per contest. So, the workload was really still there that we needed. Yet, they averaged and were
4:1316th in rushing yards before contact per attempt. The Eagles running backs were.
4:17Compare that to 2024, they ranked second. They were seventh in explosive runs this past season with 58, which is still a nice number, but compare that to
4:262024. That was at 77, the second most.
4:30And yeah, I mean, I was one of the people that said, "Of course we can take Saquon Barkley early in drafts last
4:34year, despite him getting what, 400 touches the previous year and you know, all the permutations that typically fall from that and they're all negative." Um,
4:42I this is just my eye test. I did not see like a major drop off, but in the numbers there were major drop offs. I
4:49mean, again, two years ago, he had touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, and 23 yards. And then last season,
4:57only two touchdown runs longer than 13 yards. So, if he really hasn't changed overall as a player, if he's still 90%
5:04of the player that he was back in 2024, all that we need is just a cohesive and solid offensive line and running game,
5:12and then we are getting much closer to that running back two, three finish than we are to me as the absolute floor of
5:19that running back 15 finish that we got last year.
5:21>> Yeah, to put some numbers on that, Lane Johnson played nine games, Landon Dickerson 14 games, Cam Jurgen 14 games.
5:27those those players were playing through injuries even when they were out there.
5:30So hopefully they're just a little bit healthier. I think they're they are going to miss Jeff Stoutland like maybe the best offensive line coach ever, but
5:36at the same time the new OC coming uh to town comes from the Packers who had you know Josh Jacobs in a very very fantasy
5:44friendly role here. So um I mean even last year everything hit hit the fan and he was still you know like a round two
5:52round three type of guy. So I I would be wanting to draft it at the one two turn.
5:56I'd rather have him than Ashton Genty.
5:58>> At some point in the summer, we will basically reorder how we think the top 15 picks should go in fantasy football.
6:04Uh Saquon Barkley has already in the last month climbed ahead of another running back in the second round and so he hasn't always been at this one two
6:12turn. I would rank him even higher than this. I am very very pro Saquin Barkley this season. And yeah, I mean the
6:18offensive line stuff could go one way or the other. Like you can easily make the case that without Jeff Stoutland that
6:23it's going to get worse. At the same time, uh it if you read between the lines, there's a lot of positivity and
6:30optimism that this is like the new wave of the future here for the Philadelphia Eagles and only things can go up versus
6:35where it was in 2025. Okay, next name, Kenneth Walker III. Yep, we're doing it again this summer. Drafted as the running back 10 this year, finished last
6:47year, as we all know, as a running back 28 in points per game. So, where we at with Ken Walker on a new team and the
6:54Kin City Chiefs? I'm buying this price tag. I got him ranked 13th overall. His ADP is at 16th on underdog. He signed a
6:59$28 million guaranteed contract. This running back group for the Chiefs has just been horrific for a very long time since uh 2022. Uh their success rate has
7:09been higher than what the Seahawks have had with with Kenneth Walker, but the explosive play rate is like light years different. And that's crazy
7:18because the Seahawks offensive line has not even been good. And you can make an argument that this Chiefs interior offensive line is pretty damn impressive
7:26here. So, I think you can argue that this is the best offensive line Kenneth Walker's ever played behind with Andy Reid, who has uh it's been a little bit,
7:34but if you go all the way back, there's been some crazy fantasy seasons. Deuce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamar Charles, Lehan McCoy, and I think Lehan McCoy and
7:43Kenneth Walker, there's a lot of actual similarities between those players.
7:47Those guys went absolutely nuts. Uh, and just to put that into into perspective here, Lehan McCoy's final three seasons with Andy Reid, his 17g game pace was
7:571,800 scrim jars. So, I think there is a huge ceiling with Kenneth Walker. I think he's shown that he can at least uh
8:04catch the football. He's not like super reliable in pass protection, but he's competing with like it's Amari De Marcado, EMTT Johnson, Bashard Smith. I
8:12mean, it's absolutely nobody's out there. there. I think the entire offseason plan has been Kenneth Walker is just going to change the entire
8:19formula. We don't have to really worry about wide receivers, so I want to buy.
8:22>> I mean, that's it. Like, we always say that teams are honest with their wallets and with their draft picks. The only
8:29substantial move the Chiefs made in this offseason on offense was bringing in Ken Walker the third. And why is that? Well,
8:36we talked about it on a weekly basis last year that the Chiefs running game had a high success rate that they were
8:41hitting singles with, you know, whatever Kareem Hunt was and even Patrick Mahomes scrambling and whoever else you're going to throw out there. Now, with their
8:49wallets, they told you that that's not enough. That that didn't matter that much in the win loss column and that only gets you so far. that you have to
8:57now in this version of the NFL with how coverages and defenses are set up, you have to generate explosives in the
9:04running game, especially if you can't create them in the passing game, which the Chiefs have struggled to do over the last couple seasons. And they can do
9:11that. I mean, they just need a talent like Ken Walker the third because they ranked last year 10th in rush yards
9:17before contact per attempt, but then were 32nd in rush yards after contact per attempt. So Ken Walker, we debated it and we discussed it last off season.
9:27As an individual talent, sure he's going to have some stuff rates. He's he's going to have some negative runs, but very few players create the gamechanging
9:36moments that he does. And as we saw that when Zack Sharon went down, he has three down talent. He has workhorse talent.
9:45And that goes back to him averaging 17 and a half fantasy points over the last 26 games that he's played 60 plus% of
9:52the snaps. He should play 65 70% of the snaps this season. And I cannot wait to see it because I am certainly would have
9:59gotten and maybe not healthy for 17 games, but we would have gotten magical numbers from K9 last year if he was
10:06given this type of opportunity and now he gets it on the Kansas City Chiefs.
10:10>> Yeah, I think it's a top three, top five uh outcome here for Kenneth Walker. Uh if everything kind of breaks his way,
10:15just the the history with Andy Reid and how good Kenneth Walker is and how desperate they are for this type of
10:19player, it's all kind of aligning. I just looked real quick on Yahoo. His ADP is at 21. So, I think some of our
10:26reddraft leagues, they have not got up to exactly where we are in baseball. And I want to be just doubling down. If he's
10:33like a late round two pick, he's like somebody that we will just be not talking or we can't stop talking about
10:38him as we get closer to reddraft time.
10:41>> And there's one more name. You brought up a bunch of Philadelphia Eagles running backs. I'll also throw in Kareem Hunt during Andy Week's time and his
10:48rookie season with the Kansas City Chiefs where a rookie Kareem Hunt finished as the running back five in points per game that season. I mean,
10:55this is special stuff with Yes.
10:57>> Ken Walker. There's there's more numbers here. Okay. Um, last season the Chiefs were 20th in explosive carries just overall and they had just 29 explosive
11:07plays in 2024 of 25 plus yards. Only five teams had less. Only five teams had less. Now, that did jump up to 37 last
11:15year, but if you again, you package like the frustrations that I have had when watching the Chiefs over the last two
11:20seasons. Kenneth Walker is the difference in all that. He is the investment to change all of that. It's, you know, not the first round pick and
11:27Xavier Worthy. It's not all these similar types to Rashy Rice and le lesser than uh unless, you know, Taekquin Thornton becomes the best deep
11:35threat in the NFL. Like, this offense is going to the next level. And if it does, it is Kenneth Walker the third doing it.
11:42That's for sure.
11:43>> Yeah. I can't believe the rushing lines at 950 yards. I mean, like that that just seems like that seems like hundreds
11:49of yards off to me. But maybe maybe I'm crazy.
11:52>> All right, before we go any further, again, this is a great grouping of episodes that we have here. If you
11:57hadn't gone and watched the wide receiver version of that, do it right after this episode. And while you're there, hit that subscribe button. It's
12:04totally free to all of you. Uh, and we've got content throughout the summer helping you get ready for your fantasy football league, your fantasy football
12:10draft, and just to beat up on your buddies. That's it. So, hit subscribe.
12:13Next, a channel favorite for a very long time and one I just don't know where I'm at this offseason. This is David
12:21Montgomery. He's being drafted right now as running back 20 on his new team going from the Detroit Lions over to the
12:27Houston Texans. Last year, he finished as the running back 31 in points per game. So, let me know where and if I
12:35should be drafting Dave Montgomery in this spot.
12:37>> I got him ranked RB 2564th overall. His ADP is at 50. So I am slightly behind on David Montgomery. Long story short, I
12:45just don't think he profiles that much different than Tony Per, Chuba Hubard, Raandre Stevenson, Jaylen Warren, and those guys just get drafted a lot later.
12:54I think that the history of the Texans is is fascinating. So since 2023, that's when Damika Ryan and CJ Shroud both
13:00showed up. Uh that 2023 season, it was not that pretty. That was the Devin Singleary versus Damen Pierce uh battle.
13:09Uh Devin Singleary was the RB35. Uh they traded for Joe Mixon. They signed him to a $27 million contract. He was the RB9
13:17and RB5 usage. Uh and then last year was Woody Marks as the running back 35. So two of the three seasons have been
13:23horrific. One season was awesome, but that was also Joe Mixon after trading for him and then extending to a big contract. David Montgomery, they traded
13:31for him. His contract is two years $16 million with only $10 million guaranteed. It's like nowhere near the Joe Mixon stuff. And then I also just
13:39have to wonder, >> how good is David Montgomery at this point? He's had uh nine straight seasons with at least 180 touches. That's going
13:49back to Iowa State. He's going to be 29.
13:51That's just like a lot of wear and tear here. And then I wasn't a huge fan of Woody Marks, but Woody Marks is going to
13:56play the passing situations here. So it's like, okay, I've probably got an early down role for David Montgomery here. And the offensive line's been 31st
14:04in EP per carry, 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023. uh because the offensive line has been so bad. So, I
14:10would be pretty surprised if like David Montgomery was like a true difference maker. I think that he can ride this workload um because they want to be
14:17pretty balanced uh to a flex, you know, maybe low-end RB2 range. I just don't see the pathway to kind of pay off like
14:26compared to some of the upside picks around him. So, I'd rather park him right next to, you know, Chuba Hubard who we'll get to in a second.
14:32>> Yeah, the upside picks just right now on underdog.
14:36Terry McLaren, Coulson Loveland, Jaylen Wadd, Jameson Williams are the four picks ahead of him. Then right after it's Devonte Adams, and then you know
14:43this cluster of running backs that it truly might take me all summer to figure out how I really want to stack them in
14:50Trevian, DeAndre Swift, Bucky, Quinchan Judkins, and then Bashel Tuton. Uh still Yeah. Yeah. That's where I'm at right now, >> but we'll see where we are in a couple
15:01weeks. Uh, look, specifically in David Montgomery, like the pro and con side is the same. It's all about volume. And that always scares me when both sides
15:10make the same case for their outcomes.
15:13Again, for the positive, you can say that he's the only one in the back field with really 14 plus touch chops on any
15:20given week that he has the workload that we want for a running back two, which is exactly where you're drafting him as
15:25running back 20. Um, for the downside, he's 29, as you said, and it's all about workload. And the Texans are in year two
15:33of trying to fix their offensive line, so it turns into, you know, a viable fantasy backfield. I mean, this is the
15:39profile that is typically destined for, you know, running back dead zone stuff.
15:44Albeit now this is like the fifth round versus the third or fourth round, for example. But like, you know, we can look
15:49at Chuba Hubard last year or Isaiah Bachco or James Connor. uh Rashad White was even the running back 14 in 2024 in
15:57drafts uh that September and then even Mike Davis a few years back. So like if this hits I can tell you exactly how it
16:05hits. It's David Montgomery lasting for 17 weeks getting 14 plus touches on any given week and Houston improving their red zone drives and red zone efficiency
16:16and the offense just being a tick tick up. But if it fails, then again, I think the outcome is just as obvious. And
16:25maybe unfortunately, we've seen that negative outcome happen in this archetype a bit too often. I >> I think there's like a chance that Woody
16:30Marks makes this like pretty close to even by the end of the season as well. I think it'll be for sure David Montgomery
16:34to start this thing. Uh miss tackles per touch. There's a a rate stat from PFF.
16:39Last year was at 18%. The previous year's 27 214%. So slight slight drop in forcing missed tackles last year. Uh, and yeah, he's just been playing behind
16:49a really good offensive line and now he's got one of the worst in the league.
16:52Last note, I have Nick Kaley, the offensive coordinator. Uh, last year, couldn't say I was like super optimistic from what I was seeing out there. Uh, he
16:59ended up choosing a committee backfield and then he also just grew up watching the Patriots who were always chopping this backfield into twos, sometimes even
17:09into threes here. So, I think my baseline case is he's going to be the early down guy. Woody Marks is gonna
17:14handle a lot of the pass game work and then you're just talking about, you know, you're signing up for the Texans
17:20offensive line and whatnot. So, I I think he's got like a somewhat of a realistic floor here. I just like the
17:27first pick in the fifth round. Like I want to like I want to live a little like I just feel like
17:31>> you want to draft someone with the first pick of the fifth round that has a chance of returning value as a second or
17:37third round pick.
17:38>> Yeah, I can see him being a three four round guy like a slight win here. I just I'm just like not buying into a huge
17:44ceiling anymore.
17:45>> So, just talking about the offensive line real quick. Again, they have chopped and changed it year-over-year.
17:50We know Urser is going into his second season at left tackle. They brought in Brain Smith to play the right tackle
17:55spot and then some combo of Evan Brown and Wyatt Teller at left guard. Then they spent a first round pick on Keelin
18:01Rutled who didn't have, you know, a ton of college reps at center, but he is going to play center here. And then they
18:07gave a contract to Ed Ingram to extend him this offseason. And that's the group. And so you hope that they, you
18:13know, can become a really good and solid unit. And, you know, there were some numbers last year that were fine. Again,
18:19they were 18th in red zone drives per game, the Texans were, but then 29th in red zone touchdown success rate. They
18:25were 11th in yards before contact per attempt. That was a big Nick Chub stat, but then tied for 32nd in yards after
18:32contact per attempt, which is also what Nick Chubb and Woody Marks were last season. So, I just don't know. Like, I
18:39would love for this to be 26-year-old Dave Montgomery instead of 29-year-old Dave Montgomery, >> right? And I mean, a rookie center
18:45changing positions like does that not just like wreak like I mean that's that makes me a rookie center in general is
18:51makes me nervous when he is also changing positions to do it. Like, that's that's a lot. I could not say that. Uh Kaylee and Strad were lights
18:59out in terms of setting protections and those type of things uh this last year.
19:03>> Yeah, I mean CJ Strad used to never in college, excuse me, in the NFL set protections with Bobby Slo. Like this is
19:08now in year two of it basically. Chuba Hubard is next. Drafted as running back 27 right now despite finishing as running back 39 in points per game. So
19:19simple question, are you in or out at this price tag?
19:22>> I'm slightly in on Chiba Hubard. I have him and David Montgomery like right next to each other and they're nowhere next
19:27to each other in terms of ADP. I just want to like hit on this like timeline.
19:30Uh back in 2024 played 77% of the snaps.
19:33That was the first year with his current coaching staff. He was the RB12 on RB7 usage. His rush yards overexpected was
19:40the RB4s. Like that was a fantastic season. Uh and that would be a fantastic uh uh outcome at this ADP. Then last
19:48year he starts ahead of Rico Dael. Uh he was the RB19 uh for the first four weeks of the season. Then uh he picks up an injury.
19:58His return from injury was horrific. Uh he only had 50 total yards in just one regular season after uh Rico Data went
20:05crazy. His rush yards over expected was now at negative 21% after being at positive 24% back in 2024. And then they
20:13get to the playoffs and then Chuba Hubards uh the alpha 17 opportunities scores two touchdowns. Now what? So now the we move on from Rico Dael. We've had
20:23the pros and cons of this Chuba Hubard profile and the guy behind him has torn his ACL a couple times in a row. He's
20:30out there. They're ramping him up. It sounds like he's on pace to play, but I've seen Chuba Hubard for a huge uh
20:38part of the calendar be a fringe RB1 uh in fantasy and now I'm just kind of waiting for Chu uh for for Jonathan
20:45Brooks to kind of steal his job. This is kind of the the profile that I think the projections sometimes underell because
20:52the sexier backup is going to take his job. There's only so many backfields where it's a complete flipping because uh of the coaching staff and Jonathan
21:01Brooks like if he had a setback, nobody would be surprised uh in response to that. So, I really like all these
21:07running backs in this range. This these guys used to be priced in the fourth and fifth round, >> right? These guys used to be in the
21:14David Montgomery territory. And now we're getting them two rounds later.
21:16>> And you look at their projections versus DK Metaf and fantasy points. Who's going to be in your flex? It's going to be all
21:23these running backs versus all these wide receivers. So, I'm gravitating to all these guys. And I think that Chuba Hubard for the most part has been a
21:31totally fine starting running back in the NFL except when he's injured.
21:36>> Right. It's like when he loses five to 15% of his ability, then he's extremely replaceable.
21:42>> Yes. You know, uh I think that's why it's always difficult for me to talk about Chuba Hubard because I get the
21:49positives of it. Even dating back to his time at Oklahoma State, like he's a grinder out there. He can take the
21:55volume. He can, you know, pick up the yards that are blocked for him. And you know, the coaching staff freaking loves
22:01him. You know, they they make him like the poster player for what they want the organization to be. At the same time as
22:08you saw last year when Chuba wasn't healthy and Rico was, then you got 200 plus rushing yard games and total yard
22:16gains and like explosive plays, missed tackles, forced, twisting, turning, all this game-changing stuff that I'm not sure Chuba really has in his bag as
22:27frequently. So, I mean, in order for this to happen, he needs to stay healthy and the offensive line needs to stay
22:33healthy. This was shocking to me and Reeves posted this that the Panthers most used offensive line combination last year only played 20% of the snaps
22:42together. That was the fourth lowest percentage across the league. Uh after Robert Hunt and Brady Christensen at right guard, I mean that was a complete
22:50disaster when the other guys had to step in there. When those two players were in, it was quite good. We know now they
22:55have tons of tackle depth, much less guard depth. But again, if you have a solid five starters, which they do, plus
23:03some again backups at at tackle, then this thing can work. And if the offensive line is good, then that's going to make Chuba Hubard better. But I
23:11love Jonathan Brooks. I want Jonathan Brooks to be healthy. I know he's still super young when we talk about running backs across the board, but uh he really
23:20has to string together a handful of games, like even more than Rico did last year for the Panthers to just totally
23:27replace Chuba Hubard because again, even with Rico's monstrous performances, they just immediately wanted to turn back to Chuba Hubard once they were both equally
23:35healthy.
23:36>> Yeah. And Chuba's been like an honorary captain for points of his career that he's really trusted by this coaching staff and stuff. So, I think I don't
23:42think it's going to be as easy as like Jonathan Brooks into a bellcow role.
23:45Like, if you're the coaching staff, his first year back from his second knee tier. Are you going to really trot him
23:51out there for 70% of the snaps? I just like find that unlikely. I feel like the first half of the year it'll be Chuba
23:57Hubard as a lead back and then if Jonathan Brooks is as good as we think, then he starts kind of taking over. I
24:02think some of the signs will be there where we can possibly trade him if you're in the reddraft league and whatnot. So, Jub not the sexiest pick,
24:08but sometimes the uns sexy picks at running back in and best baseball and half people are like those have been like home run picks in general. Um, so I
24:16really like this price tag.
24:17>> Okay, on the running back breakouts video, the thumbnail is actually Basel Tutin and he is the one with the largest
24:24gap of where he finished last year and where he's being drafted this year among all running backs. So, I did just want
24:30to bring up his name and see if you wanted to say anything about him. He finished last year as running back 54 in
24:35points per game and this year he's being drafted as running back 25. Again, an extended conversation in that running back breakouts video. Anything you want
24:43to add here onto this video?
24:44>> Uh, I mean, one of these two backs between Chris Rodriguez and Tuton are like just way underpriced. I mean, Travis Achan was the RB1 on RB14 usage.
24:54Liam Cohen went absolutely crazy with Bucky Irving uh, and Rashad White the previous seasons. This is a really great offense. It's just divvying up the
25:03touches. We're going to learn more. It sounds like Chris Rodriguez is getting back to healthy. I didn't trust Bachel Tutin. I'm watching I don't think that
25:09Liam Cohen did, but the athletic difference between Toutin Crod are substantial. So, like no one should be very confident in their Tutin
25:15projection. I think this is about the right range to take a dart throw. Uh, but I do I do still find Chris Rodriguez
25:22to be pretty interesting, at least in standard and half PPR. Uh, and I think once we get back to training camp and
25:28he's out there in week one, I think that his price tag will start to go up because I do think there's going to be
25:33there he is. He's first in the order of uh the the drills. There's going to be like those tweets. Shipley is going to
25:40say, "Hey, he might lead this team in carries." So, I do think that this ADP could end up kind of tightening. And I
25:46think that should be C-rod going back up, not Toot necessarily falling backwards.
25:51>> Yeah, I don't want to totally rehash this conversation. I think my Bachel Tutin exposure is going to be far far
25:56far higher than my Chris Rodriguez exposure. Now, the only thing standing between that being even higher are the names that Bachel Tutin is being drafted
26:05around. I mean, this 56 turn is freaking loaded. And this is kind of the Jarian Price conversation, too, where it's Christian Watson, Lamar Jackson, Joe
26:13Burrow, Jaden Daniels, and Tyler Warren.
26:16And like, I just want all those guys.
26:17>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. For sure.
26:19>> I I still like that Tuton is after again this cluster that we brought up of Deont, Trevian, Swift, Irving, and
26:25Quinnon. I think there's a chance as we get closer to the season that Bachel Tutin jumps if not one, two, or three of
26:31those names. Uh the longer that Chris Rodriguez is out, the more and more love that Toutin is going to get in that
26:36regard. Uh so I would get all my shares as much as possible right now, too.
26:40>> Yeah. Totally RB25 in ADP. He's more likely to be the RB15 or RB35 than the RB25 by the season ends. We just don't
26:47know which one.
26:48>> I like that a lot. Okay, let's flip this on its head then. Let's talk about players and running backs specifically
26:53that are being drafted and selected much later than where they finished among backs last year. And once again, for basically the third straight season, we
27:02start with Kairen Williams. Yes, he finished last year as the running back eight in points per game. He's drafted as the running back 16 right now. You
27:12know, Hayden, just a cool 1300 total yards and double-digit touchdowns in each of the past three seasons still does not make you a top 15 scorer and
27:21drafted running back in the eyes of the public heading into the next season.
27:25>> Yeah, I mean, this is tough because I like all the running backs in this range and I'm one of the guys I'm drafting him
27:30as the RB16 in my rankings right now.
27:32So, I I can't say that the public has this one wrong. I think he's a totally strong uh third round pick here. He did
27:40that last year when the Rams were first in points per game, yards per game, and success rate. Their rushing success rate
27:45as a team last year was one of the best of all time. All time. Uh their left tackle right now might be going to jail.
27:52Uh there's been a lot of allegations.
27:53We'll see if he's even going to be eligible. And they do not have any tackle depth right now. And there I
27:58think the the Rams offense, I would project them to be top three. It's also just extremely fragile and just like how
28:04everything is built up there, aside from obviously having Shawn McVey. So, if anything changes there, if Blake Cororm mixes in a little bit, I think this
28:12Blake Cororm, Kairen Williams onetwo punch, I think it's here to stay. Kairen 2/3, Blake Cororm 1/3. They're interchangeable. I think they're going
28:19to keep it that way. Uh, so yeah, I think that we should be discounting what he did last year because it's unlikely
28:25the Rams run nearly as hot as he did the season prior, but that makes him a totally fine third round pick versus
28:32being what, a second rounder last year.
28:33Yeah, this is always tough. Uh because Kairen always stays healthy and then he always outlasts the ones that don't stay healthy for the entire season and then
28:41he's on a really good team and environment and that just lends itself to like really quality fantasy output.
28:46Uh and you know even what the difference between 2020 2024 and 2025 is that Blake was involved and it still didn't really matter in terms of a
28:56fantasy outcome and fantasy output. Uh it was still very good from Kairen Williams. Now, you know, some games it was like you said 2:1 drives. Some games
29:05like in blowouts it was 1 one. He did have 10 red zone touchdowns compared to Blake Cororm's five as well. But, you
29:13know, Kairen only had 59% of the backfield touches over the last 12 games, the final 12 games of last season. And that's like the running back
29:2118. But as we always talk about, just because you're running back 18 in touches doesn't mean that you're going to finish the running back 18 overall
29:30because you're on a better team that scores more points and that's what projects you and overestimates compared to just what the averages are out there.
29:39But you brought up like the Alert Jackson stuff at left tackle was a big thing because this >> is what the second time he's popped up
29:46for something like this and the NFL can lay the hammer when that's the case. and you look at their tackle depth and I
29:53think it's Quenberry who's their backup left tackle and they didn't spend the, you know, 16th overall pick on the left tackle spot. So, yeah, I mean that
30:01changes the math and then you hope for, you know, uh, offensive line health outside of that to stay in the same
30:09spot. So, yeah, I mean I'm drafting Kairen of where he's at. But just when you stack all the names, despite 1300
30:15total yards and double digit touchdowns in three straight seasons, I still do have a tough time of ranking him higher than like running back 50.
30:21>> Yeah. I just think last year, like even in the the playoffs, the final four games of the year, he played between 50
30:26and 63% of the snaps. Back in 2024, his lowest snap rate in games was at 68% and most of his games were actually above
30:3485%. So I mean, that's a huge difference going from year-over-year. So, if the Rams you are somehow like seventh in scoring this year, 10th in scoring if
30:42injuries kind of pop up, then I do think he's going to slide more so because I don't think they're just going to remove
30:47Blake Cororm all of a sudden. Um, so yeah, I think he's a fine pick. I think like there is some low-end outcomes here
30:54if you know some injuries uh pile up with with the Rams.
30:58>> Possible stupid question here, but I'll ask it. We didn't see Blake really touch the field until his second season and
31:05then he did and he took like a third of the touches, a little bit more in some games. Now we're in Jarquest Hunters
31:12second season.
31:13>> Does he exist?
31:14>> Um exist. I'm not sure. I saw some Ronnie Rivers um tweets about from from this offseason that he's still ahead of
31:21of Hunter. I really liked Hunter, so I'm I'm I'm hoping for him. Uh I don't like his chances. I will say that.
31:27>> Yeah. I just remember because I go back and watch those, >> you know, behind the scenes uh diaries that these teams put up on YouTube and
31:34Sean McVey was like, "The only player that I want on day three is Jarquest Hunter and he's the only one that
31:39matters." And then >> you never know.
31:42>> You [laughter] never know if he even is going to be in this roster heading into this year. Okay, we already said his
31:46name before, but now he's on a different team. Let's talk Rico D now of the Pittsburgh Steelers. We know last year
31:52with the Panthers, he finished as the running back 20 in points per game, including some top five overall weeks.
31:58Now he's drafted as the running back 32.
32:02Is that fair? Because he reunites with his former head coach back in 2024 and Mike McCarthy when they both run the
32:09Cowboys.
32:09>> This is a fascinating one. And I would say that this is one of the most even competitions uh going into training
32:14camp. One that we have to get right because last year the Steelers were fourth in running back fantasy usage.
32:21Kenny Gainwell and Jaylen Warren were both top 26 uh players on a per game basis. That's in half PPR and obviously
32:28Gainwell uh did a lot better in full PPR. Um this offensive line I think is pretty dang good. their interior uh
32:35especially is really strong and they at least have some upside players at uh tackle and one of them is already fantastic. It's just figuring out the
32:43other one. Aaron Rogers history of targeting his running backs is positive.
32:48Mike McCarthy plays with a lot of pace.
32:50Now McCarthy is going to be bringing a totally different styled offense. Looked back at this. He's had 24 seasons as a
32:56OC or head coach which is like first off is like >> remarkable 24 of them. Uh his teams on average have finished 11th in pass
33:04attempts, 18th in rush attempts. A lot of that is three wide receiver sets, throw the ball uh everywhere. Um I think
33:12it might be a little bit more even here.
33:14So I think in general there is volume to be had. What is the the split between them? I am leaning more towards Jaylen
33:22Warren because I think that he kind of fits this like pass first three wide receiver set offense. one that obviously when you trade for Michael Pitman in the
33:29draft a second round wide receiver like I feel like that's what they're going to be gravitating to more so than last
33:34year's tight end heavy nonsense. Uh Rico Dattle is going to be like close the game out type. But I do think that
33:40Jaylen Warren is the slightly better player in general and he's the incumbent. He's paid paid more money uh and he's been a rock star in a committee
33:50role. So between the two, I definitely like Jaylen Warren and I actually in that cohort next to Raandre and Chuba Hubard like I think another one of these
33:58really really strong selections. Mike McCarthy again their history with Rico Dattle gave him the ball 275 times back in 2024. However, that 275 touches only
34:09made Rico finish as like the running back 26 in points per game, which was, you know, much better than when he was
34:15being drafted as like the running back 40ish. Um, so even getting that many touches here might not equal a big win.
34:22And then the contract didn't give me, you know, a ton of warm fuzzies that he's going to immediately step in and be
34:29a giant workhorse role. Uh, basically a one-year $6 million deal that's right between Kenny Gainwell and what Tyler Algier. So to me, that didn't elicit
34:37huge confidence.
34:39>> Again though, like certain games when they had really good blocking, it was extraordinary stuff and it was all in a
34:45row. like the Miami Dolphins game. He was running back one that week.
34:49Following game, Dallas Cowboys running back one. Later on at the Green Bay Packers, running back two. I mean, that was 206, 183, and 130 rushing yards. And
35:01sure, he ran out of steam in those games with cramps and was seen on the sideline. You would, too, if you were
35:06getting the ball 30 times in those contests.
35:09>> Yeah. So yeah, I want to monitor the Steelers beat Riders a lot as we go along. And then I also think like Aaron
35:17Rogers has some say in this as we saw with what Kenny Gainwell did at the end of last season uh in terms of like how
35:23his role changed and how his usage changed and how he got all of his fantasy points because that's basically the exact opposite of how Rico Data
35:29accumulates his fantasy points.
35:31>> Yeah, I think it's it that's makes this so fascinating. I I still think that Jaylen Warren is more of the Aaron
35:36Rodgers type of back. And I think same thing with Mike McCarthy. So Rico Dattle is going to have a role. Like I think in
35:42like fourminute drill situations, they're running out the clock, it's for sure going to be Rico Dattle. I think at the goal line, it might lean a little
35:49bit towards Rico D, but I think on like first and 10s and passing situations. I think more often than not, it's going to
35:55be Jaylen Warren. that Rico Dattle season with McCarthy, his competition was Deuce Vaughn and Zeke Elliott, like the ghost of Zeke Elliott. The year
36:03before that, Tony Pard was coming off of that dislocated ankle. His efficiency was horrific and Tony Pard was absolutely smashing in touches and Rico
36:12Dattle barely played that season. So, I do like this offensive line. I think I would rather just pay the premium on
36:21Jaylen Warren. And I actually moved Rico Dattle down in my rankings. I think in full it's going to be hard for him to
36:27get there. And I also have seen Jaylen Warren like if he actually gets the ball a lot, >> he's a pretty solid player where I think
36:34I would get pretty excited if he was like the clear-cut starter. And they don't have a running back three. So that's there's plenty of contingent
36:40value between both of these guys. Yeah, there's a lot of picks in between 13 between Jaylen Warren and Rico Dattle, but just three running back spots
36:47because DA goes as the running back 32, Jaylen Warren goes as the running back 29. And he could have qualified for this
36:54conversation, too, because if you go back to last season, he was the running back 19 in points per game and being
37:00drafted as a running back 29. One more backfield. Uh, let's talk Aaron Jones in the Minnesota Vikings. He finished as the running back 34 last year. He's
37:09drafted as a running back 39 this year.
37:12I understand that's a small gap, but I really wanted to shoehorn this conversation into the show because it truly might be the only time we talk
37:20about the Vikings backfield all summer long. I mean, again, we poke and prod and debate these 31 backfields across the league for months. 1A1B success
37:28rate, stuff rate, goal line touches versus passing down, all that type of stuff. And then there's the Vikings backfield and we like simply do not
37:36care. So Hayden, should we care about the Vikings backfield this year?
37:39>> Not that much. From 2022 to 2024, that's when they had, you know, Kurt Cousins, Sam Darnold, you pick your quarterback
37:46over that range. They were fourth in pass yards, 26th in rush yards. They were top five in neutral pass rate. It's
37:52just what Kevin Oonnell wants to do.
37:54It's what they should do. If you're looking at their wide receivers versus the talent that they have at running back, Aaron Jones is 31 years old. He's
38:01got an injury history. He isn't like a massive guy either. So I do think the age cliff is for sure here. Uh last year
38:08uh was his lowest uh yards per carry season and it was actually a career low by by.3 yards which is a pretty big uh
38:16drop down. Um >> so yeah and even like when they are like really good uh as an offense the fantasy points at running back really doesn't
38:24get there. So there's not that much of a ceiling. And I do think that Jordan Mason, who's obviously a lot younger,
38:30more powerfully built. I do think if one of these guys was going to all of a sudden explode for like 10 touchdowns, I
38:36think it would actually be Jordan Mason, not Aaron Jones. Unfortunately for Jordan Mason, he's just such a zero as a pass catcher that even if Aaron Jones
38:44goes down, he'll get all of the carries, but he's not going to have that much receiving juice on top of it. So, it's
38:50kind of one of these backfields where like there's some projected points here that could absolutely hit your flex lineup. Is there like a breakaway star
38:57out of these two guys? I'm really not convinced, especially if Kyler Murray gets in there and he's running around at the five yard line himself.
39:04>> Yeah, I guess if I was to make a pro case, it's that the Vikings totally rebound like they did in 2024 where
39:11they, you know, scored the ninth most points in the NFL. And in that season, Aaron Jones ranked as the running back
39:2020 in points per game. So that would be, you know, a smallish win and would be like a running back two for you on any
39:28given week. It's just like when I look at this, I mean, he and Jordan Mason, and I understand that like this often sucked last year, and a lot
39:38of it came down to the quarterback, right? But he and Jordan Mason combined for eight attempts inside the 5 yard line last year. And if you zoom out to
39:45the 10 yard line, they combined for 15 carries. That 15 would have ranked 30th among all individual ball carriers in the NFL last year.
39:54>> Yikes.
39:54>> Uh that's just like not enough touchdown opportunities. And as you said, >> Aaron Jones 31 now, five games missed due to hip, shoulder, toe, hamstring,
40:03knees, and toes. Uh and then all of his per season, perouch numbers were worse.
40:12And man, what we talk about all the time is once you start hitting that, the cliff is here and the cliff has arrived.
40:17And sometimes uh it's already here when the decline has already hit.
40:23>> And I'm kind of worried we're at that point here. It is fascinating to me.
40:27Maybe telling that this team made zero zero investment at the running back spot other than Dean Claybourne. And do I need to ask you what your thoughts are
40:38of Dean Claybourne like carving out a significant role in this offense?
40:41>> We got 12 minutes on this channel if you need those. Uh I don't like the chances.
40:45And just going back to that RB20 season in 2024, remember that Vikings team was 14 and three. They were top 10 in
40:51scoring. Aaron Jones competition for touches in the backfield was Cam Acres and Ty Chandler. And he still with all that was the RB20. So I think Aaron
41:01Jones is like one of the easiest fades out there. Uh, and I think Jordan Mason like possibly can like goal line himself
41:08into like eight touchdowns this season, but even then it's like really not going to be enough to like totally make a
41:14difference. Uh, I would rather have Jordan Mason straight up. I haven't that in my rankings and full PPR gets a little bit closer. Um, but I just think
41:24that his efficiency is just going to be a little bit uh better. for rush yards over expected plus 12% versus Aaron
41:30Jones Aaron Jones's negative 4%. I thought he runs just a little bit harder on film as well. Um so yeah, I just I
41:39just don't see it in this backfield. I think I would just rather have Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray goes right in this
41:43range. Like I think Kyler Murray would be a better pick uh in baseball and I think there's a chance Kyler Murray
41:47could be a top 10 fantasy quarterback this year. I just don't see the upside with these backs. And just to separate
41:51those 15 carries inside the 10, Mason had 10 of them and Aaron Jones had five.
41:56I got a message from Brad Beats 84 when saying that we're going to talk about this Vikings backfield. He said, "I'm a
42:01Jordan Mason bull this year simply because I believe a more efficient offense means more goal to go attempts, which should be handled by Mason. Eight
42:09plus touchdown upside, which is basically exactly what you said." Uh the interesting part is like as bad as we've talked about the quarterback situation
42:16last year, the Vikings were still top 20 in red zone drives and red zone touchdown success rate. So, you know, it's not like they were bottom six,
42:26bottom 10. It was kind of league averageish area. Um quickly on Deont Clayborn because I do think with how bored
42:34everyone is of the Mason and Jones combo, um he's very slight. He has explosiveness when he gets in the open
42:44field. My big issue with Deon Clayborn is the dude was horrific in passing situations.
42:49>> So bad, >> awful hands even on swing and flat routes and then horrific when it came to pass protection. And so typically you
42:58want those 185ish pound running backs, if even he was that heavy, uh to have some air back to them. And man, he has
43:08to really improve in that area in order to like carve out a role. And so, while I felt he had chances of pure explosive
43:18plays and pure straight line and even make you miss and tight space stuff, that like total liability and passing down roll uh might just minimize what he
43:30can do early and even later in the season.
43:31>> Yeah, we need we need Dwayne McBride to get back in here. Remember him?
43:35>> Oh [laughter] my gosh.
43:37I mean, I did again want to bring this up because this truly might be the only time we talk about the Vikings
43:42backfield. Aaron Jones is the last quote unquote starting running back to be drafted out there in fantasy. And in fact, there are five or six running back
43:50twos select ahead of the Vikings running back one at this point.
43:54>> There's a reason I like that. Good call by everybody.
43:57>> Okay, last one. And again, in the breakouts video, like with Bachel Tutin, we talked about Trevian Henderson. We also need to bring in Randre Stevenson
44:04in this conversation because he's on the opposite end of this. Uh he's drafted as running back 28 despite finishing last year as running back 21 in points per
44:11game. Again, an extended conversation in that show last week. Anything you want to add and close out this episode with Roandre?
44:18>> Yeah, I mean he's the biggest boy in the backfield, so he's going to get the goal line work and he was really good between
44:25the tackles and catching the ball last year. And this offense is going to be pretty sweet. Um, and he just did it
44:31this past season. What's so crazy, it wasn't like front weighted produ uh production from week 16 through the Super Bowl. If you pull up the chart on
44:40Raandre Stevenson, like he was just lighting it up. Um, so I think there's a lot of pressure on Trayvon Henderson uh
44:47versus Raandre Stevenson. I understand taking swings on both of these guys, but I do think that Raandre Stevenson is not some pushover back. And I do actually
44:57like his film this past season. Was better in pass protection. Had some big wheel route type of stuff. Was running hard between the tackles. Hopefully the
45:04offensive lines a little bit better.
45:06Lots of moving parts there uh for a reason. Yeah. Just this entire kind of tier of running backs like they just
45:12look so good in uh your flex in half PPR. In full PPR, it's going to be a little bit different of a conversation
45:19because the wide receivers start to factor in a lot more there. But in half PPR, I mean, these just price tags just
45:25they feel so good to me.
45:26>> Like these seventh round running backs and Chuba, Arandre, Jaylen Warren, and Tony Pard. And then you drop down to the
45:32next row and it's Blake, Kung Guy, and Rico Dattle. Like that is a very different feeling having one of those guys in your flex spot versus, you know,
45:40someone that's on your bench in week one. It's really that simple.
45:44>> Yep.
45:44>> I drafted a lot of these guys.
45:45>> Uh Randre was actually one of our running back sleepers last year and he qualified. He was going, I believe, outside of the top 120 overall. Uh, now
45:54he's going as 74th overall player. I say that to suggest that next week is our sleepers episodes for all positions. Uh,
46:03he doesn't qualify this year, but we'll find another one for you. That's for sure.
46:06>> I don't know, man. Finding running back sleepers in this economy is it's tough out there. Uh, we'll come up with some
46:11good names.
46:12>> Uh, but >> one staring you right in the face and Bill Crosky Meritt at 122 overall.
46:16>> Maybe. Maybe.
46:18Are we just going to skip the running back sleeper episode? Is that what you're saying here?
46:22>> Uh, we'll come up with some names. We'll come up with some [laughter] with some names. I'm less confident this year in
46:27the sleepers episode. It feels like uh once I get to round 13 in my drafts, I'm looking at these guys, I'm like, what
46:33the hell has happened?
46:34>> I hear you. I hear you. Well, we'll figure it out. We'll do that next week.
46:38Thank you all for watching our episodes this week. Uh, thank you all for subscribing and hitting a thumbs up. A like goes a long way. I mean, it helps
46:45more and more people find this video.
46:47So, if you can reach, I don't know, 1,200 likes on this video, that would be freaking fantastic. All right, everyone.
46:52Catch you next week.
