0:00Typically for these sleeper shows, we give you a list of four to six names at each position. That's going to be
0:05different here for this episode for these quarterbacks. Uh yes, we've talked about it at length that this year the elite quarterbacks are underpriced,
0:12namely because they all got injured last year. We can get them at a better value this year. But when diving down deep
0:18through the ADP list, through the draft list this year, Hayden, you and I believe that there's really only two names people really need to have at the
0:25top of their mind heading into their fantasy drafts this year. and how that these late round quarterback targets could be the skeleton key to winning
0:33your fantasy league. So, before we dive into those names, let's also talk about the rubric here. What What makes a late
0:40round quarterback star?
0:41>> There's like three different buckets.
0:42There's the pocket passer that all of a sudden plays like an MVP level. Last year, Matthew Stafford went 165th overall uh an underdog and he was the
0:52the quarterback that had the the second most points for their fantasy teams out there. And then the other buckets are I
0:58think a veteran changing team, new offensive coordinator, new play caller.
1:03Daniel Jones from last year was an example of that. And then the third one is just a new starter that runs like
1:10crazy. And I think the second and the third bucket are going to be our answers for this. Um, and that was Jackson Dart
1:18maybe from last year. And there's been better examples in previous seasons. So, it's like one of those three clear buckets to me is how uh you can find a
1:25quarterback two or quarterback three in ADP finishing as a top 12 guy.
1:29>> So, I'll scale it down even more, simplify it even more. Uh to me, the two buckets are you need to be in a top
1:36eight scoring offense and or a mobile quarterback with rushing production and that equals your floor of points on a weekly basis. and you brought up the
1:43three names that I was going to bring up to the three late round steels from last year and you can kind of again pick that
1:50apart from 2024, 2023 and and so on. The first one is Drake May. He was obviously quarterback three in points per game
1:56last year. The Patriots scored the eighth most points just as a team and Drake May himself the fourth most rushing yards among all quarterbacks in
2:03the league last season. Then you brought him up Daniel Jones before he got hurt.
2:07I believe Hayden the Colts were the number one scoring team in the NFL at 29.8. eight points per game. That was
2:14prior to his week 14 injury. And then there's Jackson Dart, as you pointed out. Yes, he finished as the top 13
2:20quarterback in nine of 12 games as a starter. Uh the team did score the 16th most points. So that doesn't fit into
2:26what we're talking about, but 42 a.5% of his fancy points from this past season were rushing. So all three of those
2:34names fit in either of the buckets that I brought up. And I think both the names we brought up today have a chance of
2:39fitting in at least one, too.
2:40>> Yeah, completely agree. And this is not just from last year. Like this is like the same type of buckets for for years.
2:44The other kind of new note for fantasy quarterbacks this year, at least on baseball, is the quarterback 2 three. So like think about like quarterback like
2:5113 to quarterback 30, they're all being drafted twoish three-ish rounds earlier than where they typically have been, which just makes it harder to find
3:01sleepers. And I think some of the strategies that have been working, which recently has been like three quarterbacks no matter what. Uh, I do
3:07think that this year because the pricing has changed, we should think through that a little bit differently. But that's that's deep baseball weeds. I'm
3:13trying to like think about Yahoo drafts uh in this episode. And here's like I think two guys that I think are going to
3:19be definitely drafted after quarterback 12 that have a chance of being a top 12 quarterback in fantasy this year.
3:25>> Okay, let's dive into those names. The first one for us is Kyler Murray now of the Minnesota Vikings. He's quarterback
3:3217 on underdog. We're also going to bring up your home leagues over on Yahoo. He's quarterback 16 there. The ninth or 10th round depending on the
3:40platform. For me, Hayden, this one's pretty simple. Like, you are getting a discount on Kevin Okonnell's offense because they finished 26th in scoring
3:48last year. All that you have to do is rewind to 2024. They finished ninth in scoring in 2022. They finished eighth in
3:55scoring. So, while I have my questions about Kyler Murray as like reaching this number one overall pick and being a top
4:0412 starter across the league uh on any given season, I have more questions about maybe his ability than others.
4:11Just the environment that we're here in mixing with his skill sets is like a recipe for us to nail down as the
4:18quarterback 17 or 16 in your drafts a league long starter for you in your lineups this season. I have Kyler Murray
4:25ranked as a quarterback 10. He's being drafted as a quarterback 17. So like I'm like drafting him as if like this upside
4:31case is coming to fruition just because like it seems so obvious. So from 2022 to 2024, that's when KC and Justin
4:37Jefferson were there without JJ McCarthy/carson Wentz. Kirk Cousins averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. That's equivalent to the quarterback seven. Uh in this last year,
4:48Nick Mullins and Sam Darnold averaged 19.8 fantasy points. That would have been the quarterback eight. Josh Dobs, remember coming off the airplane, uh, he
4:57started for a couple games, not very good at quarterback. He still averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game, which was the equivalent of the
5:04quarterback 17, which is what Kyler Murray is being priced at right now.
5:07Keep in mind, all of those guys, except for Josh Jobs, did that without running.
5:13Kyler Murray has averaged 37 rushing yards per game over his career, and there's been a couple seasons where he's even been better than that. he should be
5:20way way way healthy versus that ACL tier from multiple seasons ago. So, if we get like 30 rushing yards per game on top of
5:28all the the passing production and the weapons are still really good, the offensive line is better now than it was a couple seasons when Kurt Cousins was
5:36balling out. And then I do think just like the verticalness does help uh when with Kyler Murray who has statistically not been a good downfield quarterback,
5:44but I do think if you watch him, the ball does explode on his hand and he does want to throw the ball down the
5:49field. he just has not been very successful. Well, on 20 plus yard passes, uh, the Vikings were first in success rate from 2022 to 2024. That
5:57helps when we have Justin Jefferson.
5:58Like, to me, this is like so obvious that I do I really do not understand why he's being priced all the way down at
6:05quarterback 17.
6:06>> I kind of do. I mean, just watching his 2025 versus 2024 stuff, some of his worst ball of his career was this past
6:12season. And obviously, that was what from week one through week five and that's all we got. So, I understand it from the market standpoint. And as you
6:18pointed out to open the show, uh, let's say the high-end mid quarterbacks are being drafted earlier than ever. So
6:28that's going to lead us to liking a lot of those names because the quarterback position is in a very good place, I
6:34think, in the league right now. So someone like Kyler Murray is kind of, I think, falling through the cracks a little bit. One note as well, we had
6:40Ryan Heath on the program around last year in July and a lot of what he said on the Mick Shanahan tree really does
6:48continue to show up year after year. I mean, it's why we told you to draft Brock Party and in the games he played,
6:54he did score a whole bunch of fantasy points. Um, all of those and Shawn McVey, Kyle Shanahan are one of their
7:00disciples as a play caller. uh they just have this offensive system that boosts fantasy production from their quarterbacks to a much much greater
7:10extent than uh many of the other systems that is trying to chase this group.
7:15Question for you, where does Kyler Murray need to improve to not slip through the cracks and become not just a fancy scorer, but what we all hope he
7:25can be as like a real life quarterback, too. I mean, I think crossing routes, you know, throwing the ball over the
7:29middle, staying within, you know, within the structure for a half second longer.
7:33Uh, he has not been very good at that.
7:34Obviously, playing with uh his height, like there's like very real limitations.
7:38I also want to note that the Cardinals are like one of the biggest joke organizations in all of American sports.
7:44And if you look at the NFL PA uh surveys, the Vikings are like number one in the league. So like going from like a
7:51terrible environment to like where everything around you just seems functional. Uh that's not lost on me as well. And then like you said with the
7:57the Shanahan stuff, a lot of it just like play action. And uh from 2022 to 2024 before the offense went off a cliff
8:05last year because of the quarterback play, the Vikings were second in play action rate. Uh since 2022, Kyler Murray has a 51% success rate on play action
8:14versus a 43% uh success rate without the play action. So, you're going to get the downfield passing numbers uh rebounding for Kyler Murray, I would guess, at an
8:22all-time level. And then just like more play action is going to be good for Kyler Murray, uh where he doesn't have
8:27to, you know, scan throw the ball uh immediately over the middle. He's the play action steps way down the field.
8:32You're not really throwing the ball over the middle that much off of it anyway.
8:36So, yeah, I just like it's Justin Jefferson, Jordan, TJ Hawinson, everything's clicking here. And I think there are some warts with Kyler Murray,
8:43but at the same time, he has finished as a top five, top 10, like real life quarterback in seasons. Like it's kind
8:49of ups and downs, Russell Wilsonesque, but he has flashed like top 10 ability in the past. Just takes a specific type
8:56of offense. And I just think that they have it this year.
8:59>> Yeah. I think that roller coaster nature ups and downs as you talked about comes down to his comfort in it. Like his
9:05comfort and trust in the environment. We know he has a history with Cliff Kingsbury and we have seen Cliff's offenses go up and down at the exact
9:13same time. And when Kyler was comfortable with his play caller and with the people around him, then you did see those really high moments. And
9:20obviously last season it was obvious from the jump that Kyler and Drew Petting and Jonathan Ganon just simply were not on the same page with how this
9:28thing was going to work out. Some more detailed notes on that though, like he still needs to stand tall versus pressure. And I know get your short
9:34jokes in here, but like you have to do that in this Kevin Oonnell offense because when you allow a play to unfold
9:43and stand in versus the fire and don't abandon the play in those moments, there are windows and throws to be made that
9:51turn into explosives that turn into 17 yard digs or, you know, 20 plus yard hole shots and all these things. And
9:58someone like Nick Mullins, who you brought up, was doing that. And we need to see Kyler get back to that like he
10:03did in 2024 versus, you know, kind of what he showed in 2025. And then the other thing to me is he needs to be
10:08aggressive in the red zone, especially to your tight end. Like we know, we were going through it in stats versus film
10:14every single week. Trey McBride was open way more in that tight field than he got the football when playing with Kyler
10:20Murray and then what we saw with Jacob Brassette. So I I'm excited for this. I mean, Kyler Murray is much better than
10:27the contract that he is on. We know why he's on that contract cuz he's still getting paid by the Arizona Cardinals.
10:32But while we haven't seen exactly a onetoone fit like this in a Kevin Oonnell offense to succeed, to me that just makes it even more exciting because
10:42he hasn't had a lot of these same levers to pull with these other quarterbacks that he's made into again top 10 scoring
10:47offenses.
10:48>> Schedule-wise, second easiest. Um, and then he starts the season with the Packers without Micah Parsons, and that's a high-scoring Packers offense.
10:55And then the Chicago Bears, highscoring Bears offense with a lackluster defense.
10:59So I think for reddraft leagues, like you can start them if your punting quarterback is your quarterback one and you just load it up and your flex is
11:06awesome, you got elite tight ends, the whole thing. I do think in like a 12 team league, you can start Kyler Murray
11:11as your quarterback one in week one. And then in baseball, I think he's like the ideal quarterback, too. Whether you have
11:17Josh Allen and Kyler and then you're done, or if you go like the Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray pick, you know, a
11:22really deep sleeper quarterback three. I think either way he's like the ideal quarterback to in baseball. Uh but I do think in in deeper reddraft leagues you
11:30can just start him uh right in week one.
11:32>> Yeah. I mean this is the perfect reddraft quarterback over on Yahoo in that you get that early season schedule that you talked about and you can see
11:42what happens if it's working. If it's not if it does like we saw with Daniel Jones and Drake May last season then
11:47continue to ride that out. And in fact, if you wanted to do this later on in your draft, uh, closing it with Kyler
11:53Murray and this next name we're going to talk about, I think is an interesting proposition, too. Uh, although, you know, let's bring him up. Malik Willis
12:01might is almost certainly not going to be drafted in your home leagues right now. But, uh, Hayden, quarterback 21 over an underdog, quarterback 19 on
12:08Yahoo at this point. Anytime we mention his name, we get vitriol in the comments. But, I just want those people to let us make the case here. Give your
12:18case for Malik Willis and why he could be a skeleton key for fantasy football this season.
12:22>> Well, small sample size king over 159 plays over the last three seasons. Malik Willis is the quarterback one in EP per
12:28play. Quarterback one in completion percentage over expected. Quarterback 11 in success rate. That's out of 79 qualifiers. Those are passing numbers.
12:35We're here for the uh rushing stats and I I got plenty of those. But as a passer, he is way better in a small
12:42sample than your Justin Fields types who have held the line in fantasy for us before. I'm not going to make the case
12:49that the passing production is going to be there. You and I might be starting in three wide receiver sets for the Miami
12:53Dolphins. It's not going to be pretty there. But the rushing numbers are so obvious. If you guys watch him at any
12:59point, whether at Liberty or in the pros here, he's very fast, but he's also very physical. He's top three in yards after
13:06the contact as well. But his just numbers uh in terms of the scramble rate are off the charts. Uh as a Packer, his
13:12scramble rate is 15%, the league average is 5%. That was the highest in the NFL over the last four years. He's number
13:19one in scramble rate among qualifiers.
13:22Uh Malik Willis averages nine yards per scramble, which is only trailing Justin Herbert. Over the last couple seasons, the NFL average is at 7.7 yards. So when
13:31he does scramble, he's really good at it. Then the quarterback design game, uh, Lamar, only Lamar Jackson have has averaged more yards per carry than Malik
13:40Willis. Uh, he's third, like I said, in yards after contact per carry. I've seen him do quarterback sneaks before as well. And keep in mind, when they get to
13:47the goal line, the starting running back on the Miami Dolphins is 5'9, 191.
13:52>> I really like Devon. He's very good.
13:54>> But at the goal line, have we seen him get smoked? I've seen him get smoked.
13:58And by the way, the Dolphins pass catchers are horrific. But the center is awesome. The left tackle is emerging and he's a total athletic freak. Patrick
14:07Paul, please go watch some highlights of him. And then Kaden Proctor, they drafted him to run behind him. So like we're here for the rushing stuff. If
14:16he's actually a good passer, that's how you can turn him into a legit top 10 guy. I think we're here for the floor.
14:22But I do think the floor is higher than the ADP. So, so often we connect and by we I mean the uh you know ceiling and
14:31rushing production when in reality rushing and mobility is the floor for these quarterbacks and then the passing production the passing evolution becomes
14:42the ceiling and that's exactly the case here for Malik Willis. And I want to talk about that passing stuff because you outlined the floor extremely well
14:48with the with the rushing. When you go back and again it's a small sample and namely against that Baltimore Ravens game, he had what 50 dropbacks this past
14:57season. There was a real rhythm to his game as a passer. I mean he ripped up Baltimore and again you can get your
15:03jokes and I know a lot of teams did last year until they switched some things around. Basically, every single coverage that he faced, he knew what the answer
15:10was at the end of his drop and made the correct decision and made some big-time throws in those situations. Like, okay,
15:17is it single high back foot? Beautiful touch throw to the left sideline complete uh on the red line. Cover two seams shot to Christian Watson in the
15:28window overhead of Kyle Hamilton. Then there was a second and seven blitz.
15:32Okay, he trusts the running back and Josh Jacobs to pick that up versus Kyle Hamilton. Just a slight movement to his
15:38right, reset in the pocket, hit Romeo Dobs over the middle field in zone for a yak first down. And then a three-level
15:45concept. He's forced out of the pocket again to the right because of a blitz off his left side. Two defenders then
15:50drive on the underneath route and so he hits Jane Reed in the middle three on third and forever for a first down. So,
15:59while you and I did watch him at Liberty, it felt like everything was along the sidelines and he still did make those vertical passes in that area.
16:06I have absolutely loved the progression again, albeit in a small sample of now what we're seeing of like fullfield reading and like legit defensive
16:16coverage and especially targeting the middle of the field with Malik Willis.
16:20And I think that's exactly what Bobby Sloic is going to strengthen and heighten and focus on is this, you know, extra protection, play action, and then
16:30these crossing routes over the middle of the field. And I think we're going to have some success and some ceiling outcomes here from Malikas in some games
16:37with this passing dynamic, too.
16:38>> I will say that the coaching staff does make me nervous. I really uh like the floor, and I'm really not sure what
16:44we're signing up for with the Dolphins.
16:45Uh, in fact, like you can make the case that like heading into the season, the coaching staff that you probably trust
16:50the least could be the Miami Dolphins here. Um, and like obviously the pass catchers are are even worse than that.
16:56But, um, this Bobby Sloic load up the protection, throw the ball down the field. I do think that's what they're going to do.
17:03>> And then you're going to have a lot of zone read stuff. I think the quarterback sneaks and quarterback power and all
17:07that type of stuff. You're gonna you're gonna see elements of all that here. Um, and that's that's going to be exciting.
17:13And then hopefully Chris Bell uh hits the ground running about Halloween and we can take some of these crossing routes all the way to the house. So
17:20yeah, I think this is probably stretching it in like your typical 12 team league as him being your quarterback one. I think we're going to
17:27talk about him a lot on the waiver wire in terms of quarterback streaming. I think in baseball he's a really interesting pick. Uh I I guess that
17:35let's hit on the downside case. What do you say the odds are that he like gets benched this season? I guess the
17:41follow-up to that would be does it really matter at least in reddraft? Like you just drop him and pick somebody else
17:47up, but what do you think like the realistic odds uh of him actually finishing the season as the quarterback 1R?
17:53>> Fair question. Uh he does have $13 million guaranteed also in 2027 season.
18:00So it's not just a one-year contract and that's it. now 13 million if they're in the top five, top 10 picks next year,
18:07obviously that can be backup money and that's it. But I would have been more nervous if he was going to a team or
18:15signed with like I don't know the Arizona Cardinals which other than you know the Laflur brothers there's not much of a connection there obviously
18:22with Miami GM Green Bay head coach Green Bay and this was their target all along for the quarterback spot. So, it can go
18:31sour, it can go south. Like, it happens a lot. It happened with Kyler Murray, who we talked about. It happens with
18:37quarterbacks every single year. But, I think the leash is pretty dang long here when you consider like the next quarterback here is Quinn Us, which by
18:46the way, >> the offenses I think are going to be styled very differently with Quinn Yurs out there, which is like a point-and-oot
18:52passer versus Malik Willis that you can attack like every single blade of grass with.
18:56>> Yeah, I think that's well put. I think that his odds of finishing the season quarterback one are are pretty high.
19:00It's not 100% obviously, but it's pretty pretty high just looking at the contract. Quinn Eers is totally different than Malik Willis. I think
19:06they're going to try to make Malik Willis really happen. Obviously, there's some rushing injury risk here, but um I think there will be moments that we will
19:13like the Malik Willis stuff. I think that he's going to have some like really high-end uh fantasy. Uh, >> this this is an old school Kunami Code
19:21late round rushing quarterback that fantasy has caught on to over the years.
19:26So, you don't really get them in late rounds as recently, but this feels like we're back in, you know, 2018 or Yeah.
19:33>> 2017, and it's like the Colin Kaepernick stuff all over again.
19:36>> Yeah. I mean, I was going to throw out Justin Fields. We were still drafting I mean not we you guys were still drafting
19:41Justin Fields like as like around the quarterback 10 after years of proof that he was not a good starting quarterback at least with the Malik Willis stuff
19:49like he could be a boat and the small sample size says you might have a little Duffy boat waiting for you right here.
19:54So I I think he's a great pick. Uh especially in like deeper reddraft leagues like if you wanted to go with
20:00Justin Herbert and then you have Malik Willis kind of sitting on the bench. I do think that he's good enough as a
20:04bench uh uh stash even in like a 10 12 team league. I think a lot of the quarterback the top 18 quarterbacks like
20:12they all look pretty dang good to me.
20:14I'll mention Jordan Love as maybe like another sleeper for doing something like more in the Matthew Stafford bucket of just like get redot in terms of passing
20:21touchdowns and an ascending offense and all of a sudden he can be a top 10 fantasy quarterback. But I do think we
20:27did hit on the two sleeper quarterbacks this year. Like there's really no need to mention Straouds and Bryce Young's and those guys really.
20:33>> And again, I mean on this episode last year, we brought up Drake May, we brought up Trevor Lawrence and like
20:38those guys absolutely hit for where they were being drafted. It just feels like we are drafting in a different environment, selecting from a different
20:44quarterback pool environment this year than we were last year. And for that reason, again, I continue to mention I am drafting Josh Allen in the third
20:50round. I am definitely going for this Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels area of mid round five to mid round six
20:59on top of that as well. Uh it's also an easier case to make for Kyler Murray when you know his surrounding cast is
21:06Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and Jawan Jennings versus you know Malik Willis, Jaylen Tolbert 22 Atwell, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington,
21:16Kevin Coleman Jr.
21:17>> but you know that's why you get him a few rounds later too.
21:20>> Yep. That's Kyler Murray. I mean, just make the thumbnail Kyler Murray. Just remember Kyler Murray. This show, it's gonna work.
21:26>> Just because of that, I'm gonna make the thumbnail Mallez, and we're gonna roll from there.
21:30>> All right. Uh, again, we don't want to waste your time with four or six names.
21:33These are the two that you should be targeting. We will waste your time with tight ends and wide receiver sleeper videos on the way in the coming days.
21:41So, be on the lookout for that. Hit subscribe. It would be lovely if we could reach 1,000 likes, thumbs up on
21:47this video, and hit subscribe because once again, it's totally free to all of you. And check in the next video.
