0:00You know what? I think it's a great day to be great because Ian Harditz is on the freaking program today with the five
0:07players he can't stop drafting this summer. I got to say, Ian, you take us from the second round to the 16th round
0:13in today's episode. Uh, you will bring us on a real adventure here on the show.
0:18>> We got some sick ones and I swear to you, all the listeners, these are guys high exposure. I want to say I'm at
0:25least 20, if not 25% drafted with all these. So, I'm going to tell you guys why I feel good about it. And if you
0:32disagree, that's fine. Just know these are who I'm drafting. All right? For better and for worse facts.
0:37>> Yeah. I love to hear the skin in the game, but like the truth of the matter is it's it's about a reputation here.
0:41So, like who cares about $100 on these guys? It's about a reputation. That's what that's what we're here for.
0:46>> Yeah. And and Ian is very comfortable in his skin, and you'll see that with some of the later names that we talk about
0:50here. You know, he's not hiding anything. He's being his real true honest self uh in front of the camera.
0:55And by the way, if you like this series, we do one nearly every single week. So, hit that subscribe button here on the
1:01channel, and we'll talk about Ian's work as we go along here. All right, that sets us up with the first name, and that
1:06is the 10th pick of the second round at this moment. The wide receiver, nine off the board, Nico Collins, >> 2026 offensive player of the year, Nico
1:15Collins. I think we were just a year I think we were a year early to the party, guys. He just got paid. He's only 27.
1:23I'm aware of what happened, you know, in Foxboro. It wasn't exactly the best showing for CJ Stra last time we saw
1:29him, but I still think he's a quarterback capable of getting a true top dog alpha talent like Nico. And we've seen that, man. You look at it 38
1:37games together even over the course of playoffs. 79 yards per game, 15.8 PP points per game, even with the Davis, you know, even with the non CJ Sha
1:47experience going there. Only Puka Nakuas got more yards per run over the course of these past three seasons. So, I think
1:53we've had all the stats that tell us Nico's a superstar. If you guys watch as much film as anyone watching him, I
1:58think he's a freaking superstar. It just hasn't quite come together. We had the hamstring and the calf injuries in 23 24, some Stroud injuries in 2025. What
2:08if this is a year where we see Nico 17 games, 160 targets. I think top three upside position very much on the table.
2:15>> I have a head of ADP is a great shout out. Even though he's a second round pick, I do think that he's undervalued a
2:20little bit here. some positive regression. Uh like you said, the same cut off since 2023. His uh yards per target, all that stuff at the very top
2:27of the class. Last year though, 62% catchable ball rate that was at 76% in both 2024 uh and uh 2023. Uh it just
2:37fell off this last year. He also had a 3% screen rate last year versus 16% in the years pre previous to that. Can we
2:45turn that thing around here? Some easy buttons. This guy is so ridiculous after the catch. And then last one, the Texans
2:51were 32nd in percentage of their red zone drives, finishing with a touchdown.
2:56That 32%, that's a a stat that we all know. Uh leads to improvement. Very very um good thing to be betting on. And he
3:05only had a negative 8% completion percentage over expected on his red zone targets. 37% success rate, just three touchdowns. He's going to score a lot
3:14more touchdowns this year. And as much as we like Jaden Higgins, there's still a way to funnel targets to Nico Collins.
3:21And if I was ranking real life wide receivers fourth, love that. The the funneling the targets statement is an interesting one to me
3:30because we know Nico has alpha ability, but he also had four or fewer targets in five of the final six games of last
3:37year. Uh, now all those were wins and Ian, you know, we like talk about in this program how much >> and how different a great defense can
3:46lead to maybe lesser opportunity and lesser fancy points. And we know the Houston Texans are like one of three that can do that for their offensive
3:53players.
3:54>> And so, you know, in my brain, Ian, I would like to think that, hey, a good play caller could force more than four
4:00targets in the direction of Nico Collins. But at the same time, these aren't screens like Hayden's talking about. It's not like sixyard hitches or
4:09easy RPOS's. When these passes connect, they go for huge massive gains down the field. I guess my one concern is that
4:19what we got from Bobby Slowick and in each of those two years, it was around like 5.5 receptions per game. Uh I was
4:26hoping we'd see like this massive jump under Nick Kaye. And heading into year two of Nick Kayley, I'm still trying to
4:33figure out what he actually brings to the table as a play caller, what he brings to the table as an offensive
4:38coordinator. Uh do you have an answer for me on that?
4:40>> Exactly. I was wondering if uh you guys have done any research about do we actually see play caller improvement from year one to year two? Because on
4:47the one hand, you'd like to think, hey, extra offseason in the system, more familiarity and all that stuff, but on the other hand, it's like you can also
4:54look at, you know, Cliff Kingsbury for example in Washington. Like I think defenses having that extra year to kind of figure everything out can also maybe
5:00be the you know devil's advocate to that point. So I hear you there. Can the offensive line hold up for three seconds
5:06so Stra can you know actually target Nico downfield? That's another concern.
5:10But just again whenever evaluating these receivers like do they have the real life talent? Do they have the possible volume? Do they have the quarterback
5:17that can hand the ball? And then like are they someone in the age range that we can trust? And three and a half stars
5:23and I'm kind of you know believing in CJ Stout and going that extra mile. So, I think he's a pretty clear top 10
5:30receiver and fans, I'd be surprised if too many people have him ranked outside of that. And again, just based on the
5:34real life talent, he's a bet I want to make. And also, guys, you look at again this lovely ADP grid, Hayden continuing
5:40to vibe code better than anyone out here. But I just think this eight block running back train going from round one
5:47to round two. I see everyone just all of a sudden pounding running backs early because that's been the move for the
5:53past few years. And I'm not trying to be a contrarian just for the sake of being a contrarian, but you guys have played
5:57fantasy football long enough like me. As soon as we think we have something figured out, a lot of times that's when,
6:02you know, everything gets flipped on its head. So, I do like the idea, man. I've been trying to just, you know, embrace
6:08not full zero, but, you know, get a hero RB and then get three of these just stud wide receivers. So again, I do like
6:14Nico, but I think another aspect of me drafting a lot of them so far is just trying to zag a little bit here and just
6:20not take the same freaking running backs as everyone else in round two.
6:23>> Yeah, I really hope the three new offensive linemen that the Texans have, like that makes the difference. I'm not sold on that. We're talking about a
6:29rookie, uh, somebody with some injuries, uh, and then Wyatt Teller who's like with a lot of injuries out there and some age. But in theory, they can go
6:37from what, 31st, 32nd offensive line. we get to the 24th and maybe that's like the difference of them sustaining some drives, being better in the red zone,
6:44better on play action, and then CJ's drive was just way worse last year than he was in the previous seasons. Like,
6:50>> yeah, >> hopefully that just turns around. I'm not saying that that it for sure will, but last year was uh really bad season
6:55for him.
6:56>> Better in the red zone is like the easiest thing for this to clear. I mean, the Texans were 29th in red zone
7:00touchdown success rate last year. That simply should not happen with what they have uh on offense. I mean, that's 46% of their drives that reach the red zone
7:11scored touchdowns. Uh, the Chargers, the Jets, and the Northern Saints were the worst teams. And yeah, I mean, if they actually have a semblance of a running
7:18game because the offensive line and because of Dave Montgomery, then you would like to think that that would create, you know, better looks for them
7:24to throw down the field. That's for sure. And like all these wide receivers, Ian, as you pointed out, have questions that are going around him. I mean, Drake
7:31London, the quarterback that he's connected to, AJ Brown, have we sensed the decline a little bit? Uh, and in a new spot. Uh, so yeah, Nico Collins, if
7:39you want to rank him the highest of this kind of cluster of wide receivers, uh, I have zero argument.
7:45>> Lineups where I can get two or three of these guys before that cliff starts coming, man. Rice and Neighbors, red
7:49flags are pretty obvious. And I like plenty of the round four guys, too. you know, the Burtons, the Ibukas, the lads
7:55of the world and everything, but like there's definitely more questions for those guys as opposed to Devonte Olive.
8:01Like, if we're getting the good blood clot news in a we can probably draw the line there. But I think that's another
8:05case, man, for trying to get one if not two of these, you know, top 12 or so players.
8:09>> All right, great start. Next up, the quarterback six off the board, the 10th pick in the sixth round. His name is
8:15Caleb Williams.
8:16>> 2026 MVP Caleb Williams perhaps.
8:22Hey, >> this is an award show.
8:24>> It's a It's a little bit aggressive. I get it. But, you know, he finished QB7 points per game last year. He finished
8:29fantasy as a QB7 in points per game, even though he didn't have this goddy touchdown rate. Even though he didn't even average seven yards per attempt
8:37because this is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the league. Hey, I saw you tweeting after week one, man, like how fast Caleb just
8:43looks out there. Caleb Williams was responsible for four of the top five NextG stats fastest ball carrier times at quarterback. Shout out Bo Knicks for
8:51getting in there on the other one. We know he can run from year one to year two. His ability to just stop taking
8:57sacks is unfreaking believable, guys.
8:59Only Will Levis had a worse uh pressure to sack rate in 2024. Then all of a sudden, Caleb said, "You know what? I'm
9:06just going to still avoid more sacks than anyone, but I'm also not going to take him. Third best pressure to sack
9:11rate in the NFL." And it's like, yeah, I would like to see the dude complete 60% of his passes. You know, again, it's not
9:17like Josh Allen where we're going back to his high school stats and saying he's never done it. He averaged almost a 70%
9:23completion rate at USC. So, when I watch Caleb, he makes throws that no truly. I know we'd like to say this a lot. Only
9:29three quarterbacks can make that throw.
9:30Like, that is an actual fact for Caleb Williams. I believe in the talent rushing the ball, throwing the ball. We love Ben Johnson. I I like buying into
9:39Coulson Love Luther Bird and Roma Dunay.
9:41And Caleb is a master of it all. I think we could see and they were already good last year. So, it's not quite the same
9:47thing, but like the jump in the Dan Campbell Lions from the first year kind of establishing the culture and then year two is becoming a perennial top
9:54five offense. I think we're about to see the Bears at the top of the league for the foreseeable future. I think this is
9:59year it starts happening.
10:00>> I pretty much have no notes on top of that. Just wanted to mention it was 68 sacks as a rookie to 24. I mean, I was I
10:05saw a chart out there. The biggest like leap in NFL history from like sack rates from year 1 to year two was Caleb
10:11Williams this last year. And so, a lot of it just offensive line. They got a lot better offensive lineman, more uh
10:17better skill talent, especially in the in the underneath area, and then they have the the upside here with all these guys. So, I have like no notes. I all
10:23these guys are grouped together um here.
10:26So, I would definitely rather have Caleb than Jaylen Herz at this point. That's how ADP has it, but I think that he's
10:31appropriately priced and especially if you have Coloulston Lovelin who is stacked vertically in the same area like Coulson Leland and Caleb Williams, uh
10:40that to me is all death. the sack numbers. Obviously, Caleb has a part in that to play, too. But it's just like
10:46fixing the interior. It goes from being awful to average. Uh, and so, you know, the quick pressures, instant disruptions, they just don't take plays
10:54immediately. One thing I want to bring up is kind of how you start this conversation in terms of just his athleticism. I think one of these
11:00seasons, it might not be this year, but it could be. Uh, we're going to get, you know, a year of five or six rushing
11:06touchdowns and he had three last year, none as a rookie. He's not as tall as Trevor Lawrence, but we kind of just saw
11:13one of these seasons for Trevor that he got nine rushing scores. Like, to me, that is in the potential outcomes here
11:20for Caleb Williams, Ian. And if that's the case, like, you know, that's another 36 fantasy points for us. And like that
11:29is off to the races in terms of mattering and jumping from what the quarterback seven to like a top three quarterback season.
11:37>> It's a great point and honestly that was exactly where my head went. Like T Law scoring nine rushing touchdowns last
11:41year even though it wasn't like you know he does that Drew Brees kind of jump over the line every once in a while but
11:46it's not like they were constantly you know designing those sort of looks for him. So again love the talent, love the
11:51offense, love the play caller. I just don't think there's too much to miss here. He's also what he's gonna be 24
11:57this year. I mean, the fact that he's made these jumps, guys, like not every quarterback is Jaden Daniels and Bo Knicks and getting six freaking years of
12:04college before, you know, going to the NFL in the first place. So, also Bears and Jaguars defense is probably not going to be one and two and takeaways
12:11again. So, maybe we see a falloff there.
12:13A little more, you know, just positive game script there for Mr. Caleb Williams. So, you know, the curse of 4,000 is staring us in the face, but I
12:20think he clears it. Ain't no curses.
12:22Shout out Friday Night Lights. Uh Ian, I wanted to ask you, the quarterback position this year is being drafted differently than in past years. Like the
12:31elite guys are going a bit later. We talked about it. Josh Allen is the 10th pick of the third round. Then the next
12:36quarterback off the board is Lamar Jackson, the ninth pick of the fifth round. And then you kind of see it starting here in this sixth round where
12:43you know it's Joe Burrow, Jane Daniels, Drake May, Caleb, and Jaylen Herz. and then like the quarterback 18 and earlier are being drafted again earlier in
12:52drafts than ever before. That's a long way of me asking how are you attacking drafting quarterbacks this offseason and is it different than previous years?
13:01>> I'm I'm not doing well I mean I don't have to do the round three question anymore to your point. They're going so
13:07much cheaper. I just saw actually a good uh tweet, Adam Levitan uh pulled it from a Jack Miller article. Obviously does
13:12fantastic stuff over at ETR and yeah, per Jack the QB's two to the QB5. I mean the ADP difference in raw overall picks
13:2023 23 22 24. So these are guys that are going two rounds earlier and like that point of the draft is great too because
13:27I don't really want to draft the other dudes. I take Tyler Warren at that range like he's the one tight end where I
13:32can't see especially if I didn't get Lovelin but man Chuba I'm good you know.
13:37Jaren Price is going to have his issues when the Charbanet come back. Like none of these running backs jump out to me. I
13:42think if you look at the wide receiver fours versus the wide receiver threes, you can if we showed someone who hasn't
13:48been paying attention to ADP like all summer and just flipped them, they might be like, "All right, you know, makes sense to me." So, I don't feel like, and
13:55not that BTJ or Parker couldn't do their thing, but I don't feel like I'm missing out on wide receivers here if I don't
14:00get Tyler Warren Gray. And I've been drafting a lot of Coulson Lovelin earlier, too. And that stack is so easy.
14:05So, I like getting one quarterback here.
14:08I know a lot of people are still going three because, you know, Sam Sherman, shout out to the champion. He had three
14:12quarterbacks last year. But I I think if I can get one of these guys in the highlighted area, you know, in that
14:17round six range, I'm comfortable again only taking one quarterback later, have two, go up on wide receivers in that round four in that tier four turn and,
14:25you know, hopefully profit.
14:26>> Yeah, I like the round six quarterbacks plus like Malik Willis called today. You know, just go right there. That's how
14:31I'm tracking it.
14:32>> I think that's a perfect combo. Okay, now we make the big jump, the big leap.
14:36The tight end 17 off the board, the third pick of the 13th round. Uh Ian, at one point, Chiga Quanu was my highest
14:44drafted player this summer. Uh I refuse to update that just in case it doesn't work out. But here he is on your list as
14:51well. So that gives me a little bit of warm fuzzies at this moment.
14:54>> And you know how it is, Josh. Like I think when you say something like, "Oh, check my most drafted player."
14:58Everyone's like, "How?" It's like, you know, it's easier to draft someone who's going 130th versus, you know, 15th. He just might have not have the chance
15:04otherwise. But yeah, Chick's my most drafted tight end, man. And again, it's one of those things where I've tried to get a lot of Lovelin, Warren,
15:11Sprinkling, and Bowers. So, when I'm doing that, it's like I don't need two more. I'll just take Chig here when I
15:16get to the end of it because I think likely and Chig and Gatston are all kind of in the same group. We're just waiting
15:24for that Sunday night to come around. Oh my god, did they actually run 70 80% of the routes or are they going to be, you
15:30know, not screwed over but kind of stuck in this more of a part-time role? And when you give Ch, you know, 27 million
15:36reasons to all of a sudden feed the guy the football a little more in an offense with Terry McLaren and no one else. I
15:42just think there's a lot to like here, guys. I mean, the Yak numbers, seventh most yards after the catch per reception
15:47over the last four years, dead last in that sample. Zack Z, by the way, the surprise of pretty much no one. Top
15:52eight in tackles avoided per reception.
15:54like just just watching him, man. I think we all agree that he was one of the few bright spots in Tennessee over
15:59these past few seasons. Gets a healthy Jaden Daniels. Could clear 100 targets and we wouldn't be shocked. I am loving the late round guy in Chica Conquer
16:07because again, when we're throwing these darts, I don't want the Hunter Henry where best case he finishes tight end 10 or 11. I want someone who can actually
16:14be the number two pass game option and just make more out of less. To me, that's trigger conqu.
16:19>> Josh, I'm just going to kick it right to you. You guys are This is your obsession, not mine. No, we need we need
16:23the other side of this equation.
16:25>> I'll come I'll hit you.
16:26>> What happens if Diggs Auke sign in the next couple days like like when if that happens? No, no, one or the other. Just
16:34like somebody else comes in there, where should he be drafted? Because I think right now we're in the middle of two
16:39extremes. It's you guys can tell me if nobody signs and it's Labor Day, he should be going next to Aronda Gadston.
16:46And then the second thing is if Aayute gets cut and he ends up there later this month, Chica Quano goes down to Jawan
16:54Johnson. Like that's kind of where I'm I'm mostly concerned because I would guess the depth chart is not set in stone yet and that somebody else is
17:03coming in there. Maybe I'm I'm putting too much uh odds of of that changing. I just think looking at the depth chart
17:08right now, it's like at such a bad spot that I think that one of these free agents will end up going there. And
17:14maybe that's why I'm lower on him than you guys are.
17:16>> Ian, I'll give a quick answer to that.
17:18Um, >> what my hope is, and maybe this is unfounded, but what my hope is is that Cheg, based on, if we can follow the
17:25money a little bit, does see more like single tight end sets than he has in the past. Now, that might be a bit of a
17:32leap, but he is somewhat of the same size as someone like Sam Leaporta, where David Blau is coming from that Detroit
17:39Lions offense, you know, prior to last year. And in that offense with Ben Johnson, Leaporta was, you know, lining up as a receiver, motioning inside,
17:49doing all that type of stuff. And if that's the case, then if we can get his route participation up to 70 75%.
17:59Then I don't think that his ADP is like factoring that in enough. But, you know, that is also with the mindset that, hey,
18:07John Bates isn't going to be their inline presence at all times or, you know, Ben Sinnate isn't going to be this
18:13athletic freak. So, to me, they signed someone like Chigo Quano because David Blau said, "Hey, I can use him as X, Y,
18:20or Z." And if I am guesstimating what that X, Y, or Z was, it was just his time of throwing practice squad balls
18:27balls to uh to Sam Leaporta in the Detroit Lions off. And Chicks even talked about that and how Blouse showed him like Sam Leaporta film. He said,
18:34"These are the sorts of things you're gonna do." And Chick kind of threw a shot at uh Tennessee because they were
18:38like, "What's the difference here?" And he's like, "Well, we're actually kind of like running real routes in this offense." And you go back and you watch
18:44a lot of his success and it was just these kind of dump offs that again he manages to make two guys miss and turn
18:49it into a 10- yard gain. Anyway, so I like the talent. I hear what Hayden's saying. If you bring in Brand Nikk, you
18:56know, upside target projection, but still the number three option. Let's face it, most tight ends other than your Brock Bowers, Coulson, and McBride
19:02Warren of the world are going to be uh you know the number three option their offense more than or not. And can he
19:08make more out of less as a Yak threat? I do believe he can. So right now guys, I mean 60 wide receivers, 45 running
19:14backs, 25 quarterbacks, they're already off the board at this point. So again, it's already a little bit slim pickings and just
19:21>> relative to those other positions, give me some chicken. Yeah, look, we've got a few more months here, Ian, to uh get
19:28Hayden on the right side of history here with Choku Kong. Come on, >> I just clicked John Bates's photo, and that guy is going to be a pain in your
19:35guy's ass. Like, good luck fading that guy. That guy's a monster.
19:38>> We're going to be screaming at the clouds of uh remove John Bates.
19:41>> Yes.
19:42>> Hayden, do you have like someone you prefer in this range more like that's going later and >> Um, yeah. I think I would just pay up
19:48for like the Kelsey range and stuff, but I think afterwards I would just rather have AJ Barner comes to mind. I think
19:54Greg Doulich is a very similar case at at a a much lower uh ADP. Jawan Johnson and Chig I think are pretty similar in
20:02general. It's not the it's not the worst ADP ever. I just I think Aayuk's going to force himself over there and if not
20:07him, I think Dig, somebody like that. Uh and I think we're getting close to the point where that's actually going to
20:12happen. Ian, if I am targeting these late round tight ends, it it has frequently been Chig and Gunner Helm for me. So, I don't know how if you have any
20:19Gunner Helm takes on top of this, but uh those have been my two late round targets in the spot.
20:23>> I see the path and you look at the yards and targets for outr run and Gunnar Helm's name is followed by some good
20:28company up there. Did some okay things back in Texas. Horns down. Go Buckeyes.
20:32Uh Greg Dolich, someone who I've been tapping just a little bit late. My general mindset though has been like this kind of Ricky Bobby first or last.
20:38Right. If I'm going to be spending up on a tight end, it's going to be one of those top four dudes who could have 150
20:43targets and we wouldn't be surprised.
20:44Otherwise, again, like the Kelsey's, Jake Ferguson's, I just I don't think their upside scenario is too different right now than someone like Chick or
20:52even a Hunter Henry or, you know, even TJ Hawinson only a couple years removed from a tight end to finish. So, still
20:58lots of other position players that I like to target, you know, a top, you know, next to Kelsey and those guys. So,
21:03I'm a content rating. Again, especially, and this is again one of my more general strategies, where I already have a Coulson Lovelin or a Tyler Warren, like
21:10I'm not going to go out of my way for my tight end, too.
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22:36the show talking uh about maybe some not zero running back but taking some wide receivers earlyish. If that's the case and I know you have some running back
22:46targets a bit later on. Uh, is this one of the names in the running back 54, the sixth pick of the 15th round, his name
22:53is Tank Bigs.
22:54>> Tank Bsby is so freaking good at football. And I'm tired of pretending like he's not, guys. Every single stat that we use to try to quantify these
23:03running backs tells us that Tank Bsby is freaking awesome, but had a few embarrassing drops as a rookie. So, we're just going to write them off for
23:10the rest of his career. These last two seasons, guys, Jacksonville and then last year in Philly, it's over 200 carries. This isn't like a Amari D
23:17Marcato, you know, career sample size.
23:19Sorry Amari for the straight, but 3.7 yards after contact. First, other guys that are at three and a half, Derrick Henry, Devon Han, and Bejian Robinson. I
23:27think they're pretty good. Tackles avoided per carry. Second behind Kenneth Walker. I think we like him. One of only seven running backs with an explosive
23:34rush rate in the double digits. Like last year, I know he was in at the end of games. I'm not trying to bismerch
23:40Saquon, but like it's a little alarming to me when you see the backup at 5.9 yards per carry and the starters at 4.1.
23:46Same offense, same offensive line. And Tank looked good with the uh Giants game or like there was a game where he like
23:53is running all physical on the sideline.
23:54You see Nick Serriani just like running out and jumping behind him. So I understand that Saquon plays 17 games, Tank Bsby isn't going to be that big of
24:04a thing most likely. But I don't know.
24:06You get rid of AJ Brown. I think it would make sense for the Eagles to embrace the run more. Why can't we get
24:10Tank Biggs be eight to 10 touches per game? Steals away a couple like low end or two weeks during the midst of a
24:16blowout. Ultimately, I think he is the best cheap handcuff. Like he's the cheapest really good handcuff in fantasy. And that's my main pitch
24:24because why is Tyler Alier going ahead of this dude? What you want? The Cardinals dude in a committee if something happens to Jeremiah Love. So,
24:32I think Tank Bigsby, man. Again, he would be on the cover of every Waverwire article in the industry. God forbid something happens to Saquon. Good
24:39player. I wish it was more of a clear run out. We'll see what happens when he hits 20 27 free agency, but just such a
24:46fun player to watch, guys. I love Mason Tech.
24:48>> This is the profile I just love every single time. I want very established number TWs behind the running backs that
24:55are going to get the ball the most because the guys that get the ball the most are most likely to miss time. And
24:59for those three, four, five weeks where he's a starter, he is a mustplay.
25:04Everyone knows it. He gets you your 15 points and you log off. It's like the easiest thing ever. Now, for the last
25:09three years, the running backs have stayed extremely healthy. And we have not seen this type of profile uh come to fruition very often, which is why
25:18players like Keaton Mitchell all throughout Charmin right now, Tai Spears, these guys have some standalone value. You're not winning your league
25:26based off their standalone value. That's the quickest way to come in seventh in your league. And the whole goal in baseball is to come in the top two in
25:32the first 14 weeks and then you got to advance from there. Uh Tank Bsby is like very very obvious like he's going to be
25:39their RB2. Like the fact that like EMTT Johnson who we have no idea if he's going to be the actual Chief's RB2 uh
25:46goes one round after like that shows the disconnect here. So I think Tank Bsby uh Ray Davis is kind of interesting to me.
25:52Marshon Lloyd's a little bit interesting to me. Like these type of guys who I feel pretty good. are the team's RB2s. I
25:58would just rather wait for that tier versus paying up for like the guys that might project for seven eight points.
26:03Like I don't want seven, eight points in my flex. That sounds terrible.
26:06>> Yeah, you want 17 or 18 when he steps in there for Saquon when he goes down. But I I am relentlessly drafting Saquon
26:13Barkley where his territory is right now. Like one of my favorite picks and I have him ranked way higher than he's
26:17going in drafts at this moment. Uh, but if I don't end up with Saquon, then there is Tank Bixsby staring at me in
26:23round 14 or round 15 and I'm doing it almost every single time. I mean, 13 explosive runs on 69 carries last year.
26:31Saquon had 30 explosive runs on 314 carries. Uh, and also that's none for Tank Bisby in the opening six games because he barely played after being
26:40traded from the uh Jacksonville Jaguars.
26:43Now, I also felt like Ian, and you watch these back, uh, at least half of those 13 explosive runs were with Tand McKe on
26:50the field. But, you know, that's just details. We don't need to think about that. Like, when he plants his foot in
26:55the dirt behind the line of scrimmage and has these jump cuts that break multiple lanes and then he bounc it to
27:00the outside and cuts it up the field, he has power, he has acceleration, he has burst, he has juice, he has like
27:06everything that you want here. So yeah, if Saquin goes down, then it's Tank getting the lion share of the groundwork. And then you have Will
27:14Shipley who can go in there a handful of times and pass protect and catch some passes and do all that type of stuff. So
27:19I think this one, Ian, we are all on the same page.
27:21>> And look, he's going to be 25 in August.
27:23Like he's not old or anything like that.
27:24I thought his top five runs with the Jaguars and 24 like that mixtape put it up there with anyone in the league.
27:29Saquin probably topped in 2024. Saquon was special. But also guys, big big underrated news real quick. He changed his number from 37 to eight.
27:38>> That's big. That is big. 37's not great.
27:41>> I also wonder, and I know there are some things going on behind the scenes, and you know, he probably wanted more
27:45opportunity and was making a bit of a fuss about it, but I kind of wonder right now if Jacksonville would love to
27:50have him back in a way based on like the Chris Rodriguez signing and the injury that he's dealt with because he really
27:56would be, I think, a interesting pairing with Facial Tube. All right, >> one more name and we leave the best for
28:04last. the wide receiver 74, the second pick of the 16th round. Jerry Judy makes Ian's top five players he can't stop
28:14drafting this summer. Why?
28:15>> When I sent Joshua my list, I put in parenthesis after Judy. Like, if you guys don't want to have me on anymore, I
28:21totally get it. So, look, it's gross. I know Judy. We all know the Steve Smith rant. You know, he's not not always put
28:28his best foot forward in his career.
28:30Early career route running a little bit overrated. I get it. He had 1,200 yards in 2024. All right. I'm not doing the go
28:36back to 2021. Look at Hollywood Brown, you know, before he broke his foot thing. One one season ago, hit over,200 yards. All right. There's only been 11
28:44wide receivers have,200 yards in the last two seasons. Nine of them go in the top 15 wide receivers. BTJ is wide
28:51receiver 31. Jerry Judy is wide receiver 74. All right. 74. He's a round 16 pick.
28:58What is the difference really? And we can talk about the players and stuff.
29:01I'm not trying to necessarily slander him, but two guys with late season breakouts with a quarterback that said, "F it." And a bad offense without many
29:09guys. Michael Wilson goes eight rounds ahead of Jerry Judy. All right. And I just I'm not convinced that he's not gonna be a number one in Cleveland. We
29:16heard Andrew Barry say it immediately after they drafted KC and Denzel. Judy is still our bellcow. The catchable target stuff. Hayden, you mentioned it
29:24earlier talking about Nico. It went from 73% in 24 to 60% and 25 for Judy. Justin Jefferson was at 66%. You know, we felt
29:32like that was a war crime against JJ McCarthy. Okay. So, Judy's getting help there. Uh, honestly, and just like watching my process, you know, I try to
29:40watch I I can like take notes on Sunday for like four games at once. We get the freaking annoying late afternoon three
29:46games sometimes. But Monday, like I'm always just going back through and I'm watching like every single pass and trying to go. And there were times where
29:52like I'm seeing targets to Isaiah Bond and I'm just like, who is who ran that route on the upper part of the screen? I
29:58think Judy still got it, man. I think he's underrated at this point. Shout out to Fantasy Points. They do a really good
30:03job, I think, of trying to quantify separation. 14th among wide receivers in separation win rate last year, 34th in their, you know, more normal separation
30:11score. It's right there with Chris Aveon. It's better than IA and Jameson Williams. Who they have a quarterback? I don't know. But he's going wide receiver
30:20at 74. He had 1,200 yards in round 16, guys. Give me Jerry Judy. If I was just ranking players on who's most likely to
30:27beat their best ball price tag, Jerry Drew would be like really really high up to me. I'm not sure if he's going to get
30:33to the point where he's fantasy football like reddraft relevant as a starter, but I do think that he's going to make a lot
30:40more noise than this price tag. It's just it's it's absurd. Uh the catchable ball rate, I had him at dead last 55% uh
30:46among receivers who had five targets per game. Um he's just way better than that.
30:50And if you look at it, Shador Sanders, Dylan Gabriel, they were 42nd and 46 in catchable ball rate as quarterbacks.
30:58That's out of 46 quarterbacks. So 42nd and 46 out of 46. I don't care how bad we think Deshun Watson is. The baseline
31:05is not that he's going to be the worst quarterback to touch the football field and catch a ball, right? He might be
31:11close, but he will not be literally dead last like the Browns had this last season. So there's volume concerns here.
31:19I'm with you guys. I thought Jerry Judy was overrated early on and now I think he's very underrated at this point. I do
31:24think he's cleaned up his game. He's still frustrating he's going to point at Shadore and do those type of things, >> but he's not overselling his routes
31:32nearly as much uh as he did three, four years ago.
31:35>> Basically, what you both are saying is that the hate has gone too damn far.
31:38like this is >> the receiver who you the public was drafting as the wide receiver 40 and closing drafts last year in September
31:47and now you can get him as the wide receiver 74. If that's the case then like there's your quote unquote value.
31:52Now the opposite side of this is you know Todd Mon gets hired as head coach and play caller. He watches the
31:58offensive tape and immediately says uh actually I want my own guys and we're taking a wide receiver in round one and
32:03we're taking a wide receiver in round two. Uh, so, you know, that's the alternate here, but at the same time, we're talking about a 16th round pick
32:10and we're not talking about a eighth round pick at this point either.
32:13>> I love me some Casey Conception, too, but I just think we've seen Judy do it at this level. And just to completely
32:19dismiss him behind two rookies that we've never seen play at the professional level, man, it does seem like a lot. So, just turned 27 in April.
32:27Like, I just I don't think I'm not buying Deshun Watson. Oh, just needed to tear his Achilles twice. Now he's back
32:32to the original Deshun Watson. Like, I don't exactly get that. But the other side of thing, guys, is Judy that people
32:37say, "What if he gets traded?" Great.
32:39He's going to move up like rounds if that happens to literally anywhere.
32:42>> He's still got so much money guaranteed on his deal. Like the the Browns are paying him very handsomely to be the the
32:47wide receiver one. So like I I really like Casey Conpsion. Um and I actually appreciated what Denzel Boston's providing, but I think it's the reality
32:54is like a former first round pick in his absolute prime probably projects better than the new first round rookie um in
33:03the NFL. So, I would still draft Casey Conpsion higher because I think that there's a crazy scenario with him that we probably are never going to get with
33:10Jerry Gud. But, I mean, come on. Like, Ted Hurst, I mean, we're talking about a clearcut wide receiver four on this team
33:17in the same round. I mean, give me a break, >> guys. This is so irresponsible. I I I have 67% Jerry Judy in 60 drafts.
33:25>> Joe, keep keep doing it. I I love it. I mean, I I think this is fantastic stuff.
33:29I put his name on the back of my phone so I wake up every morning and I say this is this is what your financial
33:35future is. Ian Jerry Judy 2026 my guy.
33:39>> Oh, I absolutely love that. Uh Ian, you have said it all. Uh anything you want to share with the people? Anything you
33:45want to say about uh where they can find your work and uh what you're doing right now on the internet?
33:50>> Uh just chilling going through my team preview series. So check it out if you guys are bored. I will say guys what you
33:56should really check out Widow's Bay on Apple TV. Really freaking good show.
34:01Been enjoying that one with the misses.
34:03It's funny. It's a little mysterious. A little bit scary as well. So shout out Widow's Bay.
34:07>> Hayden hasn't watched a television show in uh seven years. So >> I was trying to give him like movie character comps when we were talking NFL
34:13draft and every single one just went over his head.
34:16>> No, I I'm too busy watching Ian Harditz's podcast, you know? I don't have time for Widow's Bay. I got I got
34:22to grind all this football content.
34:24Yeah, it's not Ace Ventura. Hayden has no idea uh what you're saying.
34:28>> That's right.
34:29>> All right, Ian, you're the man. Always great to have a little Roto World reunion on the episode on the channel.
34:36Go and support Ian's work, especially over on X and Twitter. And uh we'll catch you guys on the next episode. See
34:41you.
34:43>> Hey guys, my >> Go ahead.
34:45>> Go ahead. All right, I'm going. Uh 3 2
