0:00Yo, ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to watching the School of Scott podcast here on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel or on Spotify or on
0:10Apple. But uh for your best viewing experience, you know, you could watch along with me as I play around in the
0:16Fantasy Points data suite giving you some players I think are going to explode, going to go nuclear, going to go crazy, going to players could
0:23potentially ladder bet the overs on.
0:26Maybe at the end of this we're going to cook up a parlay. Maybe that's what we'll do. And so I think the first
0:31player to talk about is a player to explode is going to be JSN. You know, I feel like this is the only show I can
0:38talk about JSN on. You know, in a start sit show, you don't really need to say too much about good old JSN outside of
0:46just start him. 100th percentile yards per route run, just 100th percentile, 100th just really one of the all-time great seasons. It's absolutely insane.
0:55He had a record-breaking 2025. It was really one of the best ever. And he's one-upping himself. Yards per route run, 3.74 to 4.05. First downs per route run,
1:04that's even crazier. But the crazy thing about good old JSN is really the consistency. He's has zero bad games ever, basically. Let's look over his
1:15last 18 full games. So we're in advanced receiving split out for the weeks. So you can see all 18 of his last 18 weeks.
1:25And but before we go there the real reason I pulled this up is so I could throw some shade. So I could be a hater.
1:31You know, me, fantasy's biggest hater.
1:33Emeka Egbuka, let's look at him over his last 18 games. So he has a 16 target game, 13 target game. He has 10 of 18
1:43games with at least eight targets. And in spite of that, let's see how many games he has one game over 65 receiving
1:51yards. This dude is top 15, a top 15 wide receiver in dynasty ADP. It's embarrassing. This just shows you what
1:59one good four-week stretch once can can do to you. Can can lift up your keep your value afloat for jeez, it's been 18
2:10plus weeks of awful.
2:12Um so yeah, hey Omar Cooper, he's he's one week away from doing the Ebuka thing and the one week of of of greatness and then 18 weeks of
2:21suck to be exactly who Emeka Egbuka is, but that's not why we're here. We're here to talk about Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
2:28And again, you don't need me to tell you he's he's amazing. Like look at all the like so 18 games, 11 of 18 over 100
2:35yards. But let's look at the bad games.
2:37And there's only one. It's against the Vikings who yeah, toughest defense in football, fair play, but 70 plus yards in 17 of 18 games. He's doing that with
2:48backup quarterbacks. He did that in a game he only played 40% of the snaps.
2:53What an absolute freak of nature. And so the prop edge What's the prop edge on my guy? It's like a the over under is about
3:02100 yards. And again, fair fair play to you. He's over 100 yards in 11 of 18. So honestly, maybe that's maybe that's a
3:09little light. And I would argue it is.
3:11Cuz let's take a look at this matchup here. Are the Bears a good or a bad matchup for opposing wide receivers?
3:19A little below average by fantasy points per game, but by yards per target, they're bottom three. I hold on, hold on. I mean, hold on. Maybe they're just
3:29giving up a lot to the slot. Nope. Look at that. Worst yards per target to outside wide receivers. Very interesting. Huh. It's where JSN spends
3:37the most of his time, but really he maneuvers all around the line of scrimmage. But now, why do I really really like JSN? JSN, best wide receiver
3:45in football this year, 123.9 yards per game. How is he as a deep threat? Let's just take a look at And oh, would you
3:52look at that? He's the best deep threat in football right now. 48.3 yards per game. And let's see Are are the Bears good at defending that? Are
4:00they? And would you look at that, they're worst. They're worst in the league, 81.7 yards per game on deep passes. But how are they defending all
4:09other? Yeah, so let's look at this.
4:11They're the worst defense in the league at defending the deep ball, and on short, shallow, behind the line of scrimmage, they're third best. What does
4:19that mean? They're a deep funnel, and JSN is going to go crazy. He's going to catch at least two of these this week.
4:25He's going to have a big game. And so, if if par for the course is 100 yards, and we we want the over. What's a big
4:32game for JSN? Maybe a maybe 160, maybe 140.
4:37But anyway, if you have JSN, dude, you know he's awesome. Uh what about some other options? What about Zay Flowers? What about Zay Let's
4:44go back to the well on Zay Flowers. It worked out pretty well for us last week if you if you hit the ladder, it worked
4:51out for you. And that was without Lamar Jackson. With Lamar Jackson, oh baby.
4:56With Zay Flowers, what he did his first three games before Lamar got hurt. But this isn't even a fair look at it because remember week
5:05one, he didn't play at all in the second half. Week two, game was over at half or week three, game was over at halftime.
5:11Week four, Lamar didn't play in the second half. So, let's just look at his first half numbers in those games. Only
5:1736 routes, but 15 targets on this 36 uh routes, and he had 13 catches, 298 yards. So, 300 yards in six quarters.
5:28So, 300 divided by 1.5 So, he's averaging 200 yards per game, basically. That is crazy. How many fantasy points per game?
5:38Yeah, so 18.3 fantasy points per half.
5:42Absolutely crazy, and that's not even the best way to look at it. With Lamar Jackson on the field, look at this. 8.02
5:49yards per route run for Zay Flowers.
5:51That's impossible. That is That should be illegal. JSN, we were just talking about one of the best seasons of all time. He's at 4 yards per route run.
5:58Zay Flowers with Lamar Jackson is double that. What did Sheed do? But what about the matchup? What about the matchup?
6:03Should we be concerned about the matchup? Maybe this isn't the best matchup. What does the matchup look like? Would you believe me if I told you
6:09it looked great? So, who who is Zay Flowers? Where does Zay Flowers win? We know he's a winner, but where exactly
6:16does he win? He wins in the slot. 5.6 yd per route run from the slot. He has 13 slot targets, only 13 out wide. The vast
6:25bulk of his production is coming in the slot. Let's see how the Bills are at defending the slot. Yeah, they're bottom
6:3110 in yards per game, bottom 10 in fantasy points per game, bottom 10 in yards per target to the slot. Okay, so
6:38fringe bottom 10 matchup. What about the the cornerback matchup? Let's see if we can see that. So you know who has a top-five cornerback
6:46matchup this week? Zay Flowers. You know who also has a top-five cornerback matchup this week? My beloved Parker Washington. My beloved. I love you so
6:55much. Um but yeah, it listen, uh Zay Flowers, the over/under is 81.5 receiving yards. That's absolutely embarrassing. You can take that ladder
7:04up to 100 plus, 120 plus, 140 plus. Bro is going nuclear in what should be a pass-heavy shootout. Let's not lose
7:12sight of that either, but hey, uh Parker Washington top-five matchup here.
7:18And listen, I I was going to tell you to to bet Parker Washington, too. I was going to do a whole big thing about it
7:23like we just did with with Zay Flowers, really lay it out. We don't have to do that. Uh part of the thesis, yeah, is
7:28this matchup. The Colts are a slot funnel. Parker Washington's over/under 64.5 yd. He's averaging like 69. Uh and he's kind of like running bad in the in
7:39the luck department and and whatever. I mean, that to be fair, that kind of has to be counterbalanced by the fact that,
7:46you know, there's a really good chance the Colts don't show up at all, uh in which case, you know, the the Jaguars
7:51aren't pushed and so they don't keep their foot on the gas and listen, none of that matters. It's just Parker Washington's the man. I'm going to hit
7:57I'm going to be telling you to ladder him every single week until the 300-yd game. Uh and so just shoutout to all my
8:05Barrett backers here. You better be Parker backers as well because, you know, I'm ride or die. But, I'll give you another player another another guy
8:15you know I'm very fond of. We we talked about last week. It didn't work out all that well for us, but you know, I'm
8:21willing to go back to the well and that's Drake London to me. So, you're just talking about JSN best wide receiver in football. You know it, I
8:28know it, the whole god damn world knows it. Let's see how he is doing. We can't we can't count the Jack Strand game, can
8:36we? No. So, let's take week one, week two out of the picture. Week three on, so it's a five-week sample size of
8:43Michael Penix being the starting quarterback and boy, Amari Cooper. We're going to say we're going to say minimum three games to qualify. Who's the number one wide
8:52receiver in football? It's JSN. We already know that. But, who's number two? It's our boy Drake London. Why isn't he priced like the number two wide
9:01wide receiver in football averaging over 100 yards per game because the over/under is 79 and a half. This isn't just a five-game sample. This is who
9:08Drake London's always been when he's had his boy Michael Penix. When Drake London was catching passes from Desmond Ridder, he was mid. When he was catching passes
9:16from Marcus Mariota, Taylor Heinicke, Cooper Rush, he was worse than mid. He's catching passes from Michael Penix in 17 career Michael Penix's 17 career starts
9:27with Drake London, he averages 99.9 yards per game. So, why is he why is the over/under set at 79 and a half? Why why
9:36does Vegas think he's going to be 20 yards worse than his average? Is this a tough match up here? Yeah, you know, it
9:42kind of looks like it. So, they're bottom a bottom 12 fringe bottom 12 defense for wide receivers. I mean, let's look at it by outside wide
9:52receiver. Okay, no.
9:54For outside wide receivers, they're middle of the pack. So, I wouldn't I wouldn't quantify this as a bad match up by any stretch, but we have an an
10:01advantage here with fantasy points data.
10:03We we can look at the schematic match ups, the coverage shell match ups. See what Tampa Bay likes to play. Tampa Bay,
10:11we know, very blitz heavy, a ton of zone, zone at the third highest rate in the league, 83.3% of the time, single
10:19high 60.4% of the time. Yeah. All right.
10:22So, let's see let's see what that does to our boy Drake London. Oh, would you look at this? How glorious is this? We
10:30just said the Buccaneers like to play a lot of single high, the fourth highest rate in the league, 60% of the time.
10:36Drake London is the best wide receiver in football against single high, 4.06 yards per route run, nearly double his average against two high. He's above
10:45JSN, he's above Zay Flowers, who we love, above Parker Washington. I love these single high beaters.
10:51Uh and then zone. What was the other thing? It was zone 83% of the time, the third highest rate in the league. Yeah,
10:57he's top three against zone, behind only Shoutout to the legends, JSN, Zay Flowers, and he's a full yard less than that against man. And this this is a
11:06trend with him going back quite some time. Yeah. Look at Over the last 2 years combined, still top three against zone. So, yeah, a great schematic
11:16matchup for Drake London. Once again, a player to explode. Over/under 79.5, ladder at 100 plus, 120 plus, 140 plus.
11:27Uh you guys can tell me What What do you think of this show? Let me know in the YouTube comments. Let me know if you're
11:34if you're listening on Spotify, then then Yolo. Just just come on over to YouTube, leave leave a comment there, and then like and subscribe to the
11:43channel while you're while you're at it.
11:45Um What do you want this show to be? Do you want this to be I should just focus on six players to explode, four players
11:53to ladder? Should I give you a bet from every game? Because I honestly I think I could do it. Um but yeah, I I could have
12:00done this easy. I could have done this easy. Minnesota, Detroit, I think pe- people are getting that wrong. I have like five bets from this game. I I You
12:07know what I was also thinking about doing? Turning this into a a parlay. Or maybe you know, maybe do one of the
12:12other things, but still at the end give you two parlays. I know that the people, the masses love their parlays. I was
12:20going to do a a safety parlay, so like three legs that I think should be, you know, that are like 60 Each Each leg is
12:27like 65% to hit, but Vegas has it at like 40%, and then you put those together, you bet $100 on it, you win
12:35250. And then a YOLO long shot parlay, where it's like I don't know, could be three legs, three anytime touchdown bets, it could be five overs, but
12:45something that gives you like 12 to to one odds.
12:49But I don't know, you guys tell me what you want, and I will be amenable to you as always. Um and listen, I I'm I have to be
12:56transparent with you. I am not a better.
12:59I'm not a betting pro. I I have very little experience doing this. I don't know that you should listen to me. I'm
13:03I'm a great fantasy analyst and expert.
13:06I have a great track record over a really long period of time, David Montgomery notwithstanding, but I'm good at that. At I'm I'm more of an unknown.
13:14Uh who should you actually listen to?
13:16Should I actually listen to Tom Brolly, who runs our betting package. He's up 21.8 units. You should listen to Chris Wachtel, who's up 17.2 units. If you
13:24don't know who Chris is, he's our projections are. He's head of our projections. We have the best projections in the industry last year.
13:32And why do we do that? Why do How do we have that? So because Chris is a genius, and we have access to FantasyPoints
13:37data, uh which is the best data in the world of football, better than PFF, dare I say it. I don't care, I said it, it's
13:45better.
13:46Um and yeah, a lowly fantasy website is better. But anyway, uh official bets up 36.9 units. Basically, if you tailed all
13:55of our official bettors, $100 each bet, you'd be up nearly $4,000 in less than two months. Uh so yeah, go
14:05to FantasyPoints and subscribe to the in-season betting package, use promo code grinder, brings it down below $55 for just this month, our in-season
14:15betting package. Those are the guys you want to listen to, but unfortunately, you're stuck here with me. You're listening to me. So, some players I
14:23think are going to go well. I was looking at that Minnesota-Lions game.
14:27And like let me tell you, if Kyler Murray does not go off here and Justin Jefferson go off here, it is over. It is
14:34so down bad. Uh and yeah, it's it's you know, good times lie ahead for for Kyler Murray maybe in the Call of Duty
14:43streets, but I don't know about these these football streets. If he can't get it done against this awful Lions team, but you know, regardless of whether this
14:50is a bad Kyler game or a good Kyler game, it should be a great game for T.J.
14:55Hockenson because you see it right here.
14:57My goodness, look how bad the Lions are at covering tight ends. They are 29.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
15:05That's eight more than the next closest defense. They're a major tight end funnel. Our good old friends the Bengals, who are also a historically bad
15:14defense against tight ends. Uh they're both giving up nearly a third of their yards to tight ends. And yeah, the a
15:19league high 602 yards. That's about 100 yards than anyone else. Oh, bro, this is so bad. Look at all these names of tight
15:27ends that had 13 plus fantasy points against them. Juwan Johnson, Noah Fant, Dalton Kincaid, Kanyon Sandick, Jeremy
15:35Ruckert, Trey McBride, Teagan Quitoriano Drink. Drink. If I ever say that, you have to chug your beer. Uh Tucker Kraft.
15:45Bro, you know, when the tight end twos are going off, you know you know it's bad. And yeah, this is this is a
15:50schematic thing. This is a function partly of the their personnel and their secondary and how they play opposing offenses. But here's the thing about
15:59T.J. Hockenson, is he's super underrated. Who leads the position in targets per route run? Bet you can't guess it. It's Trey McBride. But but
16:07technically, T.J. Hockenson is tied with Trey McBride. So, it's it's it's T.J.
16:11Hockenson and Trey McBride tied at 0.28.
16:14George Kittle right behind them. Uh and yeah, that's interesting. But wait, there's more. It gets better. Carson Wentz wasn't really targeting our boy
16:23T.J. Hockenson all that much, but Kyler Murray, oh baby. He's targeting T.J.
16:28Hockenson as a 0.31 target per route run. That means he's getting a target on basically a third of his routes with
16:34Kyler Murray under center. That's above Justin Jefferson by quite a bit. That's kind of crazy. 0.31 targets per route yards per route run
16:422.29.
16:44Even by target share, yeah, 0.31 targets per route. Where does that check out?
16:48Yeah, so that's that's basically top six. That's above Malik Neighbors. Bro, what happened here? Kyler Murray just loves the tight ends, huh? What
16:56happened? Trey McBride radicalized him?
16:58Every week is National Tight End Week, I guess, if you're if you're Kyler Murray.
17:03Um, the Chicago Bears receivers up against Seattle. We know Seattle's a brutal defense, but we also know Ben Johnson's a genius. We know the
17:11Chicago offense is rolling. They're going to score some points. So, yeah, the Seahawks defense is kind of unique.
17:17They play zone at the highest rate in the league by a mile, 90% of the time.
17:22And they also, well, maybe that's maybe that's the tell. Let's let's check this out. Let's check out Bears receivers.
17:28Yeah, this was certainly a funny one.
17:29Romeo Doubs, he averages a pathetic 0.17 yards per route run against man, but that jumps to 2.16 against zone. And so, Col Cole Kmet,
17:40who's been on a heater, he has like the exact opposite splits. He also has a brutal matchup. Seattle just got back
17:46their best uh, you know, coverage player against tight ends. And so, I I'm very bullish on Cole Kmet.
17:54I took that out. I told Brett, he was right, I'm wrong. He he's a a great buy low, not this week, next week. Because I
18:01I think this is maybe Cole Kmet unders, Romeo Doubs overs, because, you know, 90% of the time zone, that's great. Only
18:0810% of time is this awful matchup. But let's see where this this checks out up against all players. All right, so, up
18:15against zone, Romeo Doubs is the wide receiver 26. Really respectable stuff, guys. 26 of 86. And against man, he's bottom six. Look at these names he's
18:27with. Quentin Johnston, Laquon Treadwell, Bryce Lance, Isaiah Williams, Isaac Teasla. Brother's down bad, and it's it's really the the sacrificial X
18:37role that we talk about. Look at it by average depth of route, and look at it by targets per route run. But look at it
18:42by ass, he's good, man. He's separating.
18:45He's separating. He's just running these really downfield routes that don't lend themselves towards targets. This is what we talk about, guys. You want those shallow routes,
18:55those high expected target per route run routes. But anyway, the schematic match-up's nice, and again, that's something that Vegas tends to
19:02underutilize. That's a an edge for us.
19:04That's an edge for Fantasy Points subscribers.
19:08Um and so, I don't know. That's a little angle. Listen, I I I could have gone a little bit deeper here. If you guys
19:13prefer this short, let me know. If you guys want me to go a little bit longer with it, I could do that. Again, I'm
19:20amenable. You tell me what you want, and I'll do my best to deliver the goods. As always, uh hey, if this worked out for
19:27you, let me know. If this didn't, I apologize. You could also let me know.
19:31We're going to we're going to learn from our mistakes, guys. And yeah, if you if you like this, uh I highly recommend
19:36subscribing to Fantasy Points and checking us out on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, and also check out Fantasy Football Daily. I podcast with Brett
19:46Whitefield, best film guy in the game five days a week. I bring the data goods, the spreadsheets. He brings the film goodness. And uh
19:54yeah.
19:55Thanks for tuning in.
