The One Player I Refuse to Draft in Every Round This Year - 2026 Fantasy Football Landmines & Fades!

The analyst prefers A.J. Brown over Jeremiah Love in the second round, suggesting receivers in that draft pocket are better values.

The source would take pretty much all receivers in Jeremiah Love's draft pocket over him, including A.J. Brown, indicating strong preference for Brown at his ADP relative to Love.

Alex Smith led the league in deep passing with Tyreek Hill despite having no arm strength, showcasing Hill's impact on quarterback deep ball performance.

Alvin Kamara's presence on the Saints roster doesn't meaningfully change the projection for the backfield; he's been inefficient on the ground in his career and overrated as a pass catcher despite being a locker room favorite.

Alvin Kamara has been awful the last three years and the Saints dramatically overpaid for him, though he's been dealing with significant injuries; even a washed Kamara is still a better pass catcher than Etienne.

Kamara has been 'awful the last 3 years' with significant injury burden, dealing with a ton of injuries. When healthy, he averaged 5.5 yards per carry from four years ago. He remains the team's pass-catching specialist on passing downs and a locker room leader, which limits Etienne's high-value target opportunities. Even a 'dusty, washed' Kamara is still probably a better pass catcher than Etienne. Over his career, Kamara has been more efficient, forced more missed tackles, and been better than Etienne despite playing in a worse offensive situation.

Alvin Kamara is preferred over Travis Etienne, with the analyst noting Kamara has been more efficient, forced more missed tackles, and been better than Etienne even at the end of his career in a worse situation.

Scott Barrett would rank Amon-Ra St. Brown above JSN in round one, and the host confirms he prefers St. Brown ranked ahead of JSN in his draft board.

Fantasy Points ranks Amon-Ra St. Brown above Jaxon Smith-Njigba in round one as a preferred pick at mid-round-one ADP.

Baker Mayfield had a top-five to top-six catchable throw rate in 2024, but that cratered last year due to playing through injuries; a play caller upgrade from Josh Grizzard to Zach Robinson (from the McVay tree) should help in the play action department.

Baker Mayfield was top five to top six in catchable throw rate in 2024, and has been a top five quarterback off play action over the last three seasons, benefiting from new play caller Zach Robinson from the McVay tree.

Baker Mayfield was on the injury report 11 times last year with foot, toe, biceps, knee, oblique, illness, shoulder left, and shoulder right injuries, playing through everything but not always playing well.

Baker Mayfield was top-five to top-six in catchable throw rate in 2024, but that metric cratered last year due to injuries he played through (foot, toe, biceps, knee, oblique, illness, shoulder left and right). With a legitimate play-caller upgrade from Josh Grizzard to Zach Robinson (from the McVay tree), Mayfield's performance should improve. He has been a top-five quarterback off play action over the last three seasons. Comparable fantasy output to Joe Burrow at a significant ADP discount: posted 0.6 PPG less than Burrow in 2025, 0.2 PPG less in 2024, and 1.5 PPG more in 2023, while going seven rounds earlier.

Breece Hall is preferred over Jeremiah Love in projections and goes five to six picks later in the second round, offering better value than Love.

The analyst prefers Breece Hall over Jeremiah Love, noting Hall goes five to six picks later and is in a similar or arguably better situation, with the analyst suggesting Hall should be going in the middle of the third round.

Preferred alternative to Jeremiah Love in round 2; goes 5–6 picks later than Love and is ranked ahead in projections despite being in an arguably similar or worse offensive situation. The source prefers Hall straight up and notes he might have a better role this season than Jahmyr Gibbs, making him a better value target in the middle of the third round.

Brock Bowers is described as a hammer league winner this year and is preferred over Jeremiah Love in the second round.

The source prefers Brock Bowers straight up over Jeremiah Love in round 2, describing him as 'a hammer league winner this year,' indicating strong upside and breakout potential.

Superior value alternative to Joe Burrow; averages 19.5 PPG since 2023 (vs. Burrow's 19.4 PPG), drafted three rounds later; has a better play caller than Burrow and is less injury-prone, making him a cheaper pocket passer with similar upside in the late-round QB market.

Cam Akers would be preferred straight up over Travis Etienne if good health reports emerge.

If Cam Akers gets really good health reports, the analyst would prefer him over Travis Etienne in the third round.

Analyst warns Carson Beck has a high chance of starting the second half of the season and received a poor grade (around 5) from Brett Whitfield, which could be disastrous for Cardinals receivers.

Arizona Cardinals backup quarterback; represents massive downside risk for Cardinals receivers. The source believes there's 'really high chance' Beck starts entirety of second half. Brett Whitfield graded Beck around 5, suggesting poor performance quality. If Beck takes over from Jacoby Brissett, fantasy outcomes for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson could be 'disastrously bad.'

Chris Godwin is a PPR cheat code when healthy with screen pass upside, and represents good arbitrage value given the weak wide receiver group around him compared to other top options.

Godwin has injury concerns including an ACL tear and major ankle injury, raising questions about whether he has lost a step.

Injury expert Jeff Mueller is bullish on Chris Godwin's recovery and believes he will be back to form, contrary to assumptions that he is washed.

Despite injury concerns (ACL, major ankle injury), Godwin represents an arbitrage play as a PPR cheat code when healthy. The weak receiver room around him (compared to Egbuka's situation) creates opportunity. Jeff Mueller, a top injury expert, is bullish on Godwin's recovery prospects, suggesting the market may be undervaluing his return to form.

Scott Barrett would have CMC ranked above JSN in round one, indicating he prefers McCaffrey's value at his ADP.

Fantasy Points ranks Christian McCaffrey above Jaxon Smith-Njigba in round one as a preferred pick at mid-round-one ADP.

Christian McCaffrey is cited as an example of a rookie running back who had a rough rookie season by efficiency before turning it on in his sophomore year.

Value alternative to Joe Burrow with similar upside; drafted 1.5 rounds later than Burrow; the source argues Prescott could throw 35 touchdowns and produce similar fantasy output while being available significantly later in the draft.

David Montgomery is cited as an example of a rookie running back who struggled with snap share and touch competition, getting only 50% of snaps for half the season.

Historical rookie RB comparison for snap share patterns; was getting only 50% of snaps for half the season in his rookie year, illustrating delayed opportunity for rookie running backs despite prospect pedigree.

De'Von Achane is so much better than Travis Etienne.

Fantasy Points expresses caution on De'Von Achane as a back-end first-round fade despite league-winning upside potential. While acknowledging Achane could lead all running backs and has legitimate league-winning upside that Jefferson lacks, Fantasy Points prefers to avoid him in round one. Achane busted last year but finished RB17 in points per game, giving him a much higher floor than Jefferson's 8.6 ppg. However, Fantasy Points remains hesitant on the back-end first-round price point.

Achane scares the analyst as a back-end first-round pick, though he acknowledges legitimate league-winning upside potential compared to Jefferson.

Achane has a much higher floor than Jefferson, with RB17 points-per-game performance last year despite a down season, and could potentially lead all running backs in snap rate.

The analyst prefers Drake London over Jeremiah Love in the second round, suggesting receivers in that draft pocket are better values.

The source would take pretty much all receivers in Jeremiah Love's draft pocket over him, including Drake London, indicating strong preference for London at his ADP relative to Love.

Ben Solak predicts Emeka Egbuka will lead the league in receptions this year, playing the Z position in Zach Robinson's offense where Cooper Kupp went nuclear.

In the first five weeks of the 2024 season before injury, Emeka Egbuka looked amazing and was a top-five fantasy wide receiver.

In the last five weeks of the 2024 season, Emeka Egbuka was totally cocked by Jaylen McMillan and was the team's wide receiver four, looking awful despite being healthy.

Ben Solak predicts Emeka Egbuka will lead the league in receptions this year, playing the Z position in Zach Robinson's offense where Cooper Kupp went nuclear. In the first five weeks before injury, Egbuka was a top-five fantasy wide receiver. However, the source is conflicted: in the final five weeks, he was the team's wide receiver four and looked awful, though he was dealing with injury and Baker Mayfield was also hurt. The source describes Egbuka as 'the toughest player for me this season,' torn between elite upside that wins championships and significant downside risk relative to other wide receivers in his range. Jaylen McMillan came off IR from a serious neck injury and immediately beat Egbuka in both targets and routes, further limiting his target share.

The analyst's prospect model rated Isaiah Bond as a better prospect than Matthew Golden.

McCarthy was third worst in catchable throw rate last year, with only Shedeur Sanders and Michael Penix being worse, indicating poor quarterback play that limits receiver upside.

The analyst fades JK Dobbins in round 9, citing his injury-prone history (three catastrophic injuries in four years), lack of pass-down role upside, and concerns that he'll only score 11-12 fantasy points per game as a low-end RB2.

The co-analyst counters that Dobbins ranks top 10 in career yards per carry when healthy, plays for an elite Denver offense with the top offensive line in football, and Sean Payton called him an 'acquire at all cost player,' suggesting strong productivity if he stays healthy.

JK Dobbins is viewed as a potential sell-high candidate in week 4, offering decent floor value despite ceiling concerns in round 9.

JK Dobbins is cited as an example of a rookie running back who took time to get significant touches, illustrating the pattern of rookie RBs being delayed in their opportunity.

Round 9 fade due to injury history, limited passing-down role, and ceiling concerns. Dobbins has suffered catastrophic injuries in three of the last four years (ACL tear in 2021, Achilles tear in 2023, foot injury in 2024, knee injury limiting games in 2024), and the source projects him to lose the pass-down role to RJ Harvey or Jonah Coleman. While he may score 11–12 fantasy points per game as a low-end RB2, the source questions his upside significantly in round 9, viewing him as a small ADP beater at best but lacking the ceiling needed at that draft stage. Historically, Dobbins didn't reach 15 touches until week 8 of his rookie year, supporting the pattern that rookie running backs are often over-projected for immediate snap share and touches.

Arizona Cardinals starting quarterback; significant downside risk for Cardinals receivers if he underperforms. If Brissett struggles by week 13 and Carson Beck takes over, fantasy outlook for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson becomes 'completely buried.' Brissett's performance directly impacts passing volume and receiver viability in Arizona offense.

Used as a prospect comparison point to Jeremiah Love; the source states Gibbs was a significantly better prospect than Love and went to a significantly better situation. Mentioned alongside Breece Hall as a third-round target, with the source noting Hall might have a better role this season than Gibbs.

Gibbs was a significantly better prospect than Jeremiah Love and went to a significantly better situation, with the analyst noting he is special and should be going around the third round.

McMillan came off IR from a neck injury and looked impressive, beating his competition in both targets and routes.

Jaylen McMillan came off IR from a bad neck injury and looked awesome, beating Emeka Egbuka in both targets and routes.

Jaylen McMillan came off IR from a serious neck injury and immediately looked awesome, beating Emeka Egbuka in both targets and routes. This late-season emergence suggests McMillan could be a significant factor in the Buccaneers' passing game going forward, potentially limiting Egbuka's target share.

Fantasy Points prefers Jalen Nailor as a safer round-one alternative to Justin Jefferson due to significantly higher floor despite lower ceiling. Jefferson still has top-five ceiling due to talent, but his floor is significantly lower than Nailor's, positioning Nailor as the safer round-one pick with better downside protection.

The analyst is the world's biggest James Conner truther, believing if he went to the Vikings he would be a fantasy RB2 mid-range to high-end, and over the last three seasons he leads all running backs in missed tackles forced per touch, yards after contact per attempt, and explosive play rate.

The source is 'the world's biggest James Conner truther' and believes Conner would be a mid-to-high-end fantasy RB2 if he goes to the Vikings. Over the last three seasons, Conner leads all running backs in missed tackles forced per touch, yards after contact per attempt, and explosive play rate. Despite being injury-prone and aging, the source values him highly and prefers him over Jeremiah Love in round 2.

Javonte Williams is preferred straight up over Travis Etienne in the third round.

The analyst prefers Javonte Williams straight up over Travis Etienne in the third round.

Scott Barrett believes JSN's mid-round one ADP is too high due to massive regression to the mean incoming after an unsustainable 2024 season. He notes JSN had the best yards per team pass attempt season by a wide receiver since Lance Alworth in 1965, and the Seahawks' offensive efficiency won't repeat with improved defensive adjustments and the addition of Rashid Shaheed.

Fantasy Points fades JSN in mid-round one, citing overpriced ADP (fifth overall in some spots) relative to massive regression risk. JSN achieved the best yards per team pass attempt season by a wide receiver since Lance Alworth in 1965, but the Seahawks ran hotter than the sun with heavy personnel usage that won't repeat; teams stupidly matched with base defense, which won't happen again. Rashid Shaheed's mid-season arrival and improved involvement, plus Tory Horton's emergence, further compress JSN's target share. Fantasy Points prefers Christian McCaffrey and Amon-Ra St. Brown above JSN in round one.

Love is an awesome prospect with clear three-down potential, but was compared unfavorably to Jahmyr Gibbs, who was a significantly better prospect and went to a significantly better situation.

Love will eventually have top-12 fantasy seasons but not this year, as the Cardinals are 31st in implied points per game with the worst strength of schedule (average opponent win total of 9.3), making a second-round pick unjustifiable.

Jeremiah Love is identified as a potential buy-low candidate in week 4, suggesting he may be undervalued early in the season.

Love is an awesome prospect with three-down potential, but the analyst is completely out on him in the second round this year due to the Cardinals being 31st in implied points per game with the worst strength of schedule, a bad offense, and potentially bad quarterback situation.

Fantasy Points fades Jeremiah Love as a second-round rookie running back despite being an awesome prospect with clear three-down potential. Love has an inferior prospect profile compared to Jahmyr Gibbs and significantly worse situation: Cardinals are 31st in implied points per game (only Jets lower by 0.3 ppg), have hardest strength of schedule with average opponent win total of 9.3 (Dolphins second at 9.1). Rookie RBs historically struggle with snap share and efficiency (Jonathan Taylor took until Marlon Mack's ACL injury for volume; JK Dobbins didn't reach 15 touches until week 8; David Montgomery was getting 50% of snaps half the season). Arizona's backfield has touch competition from Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson, and James Conner. Fantasy Points projects Love will eventually have top-12 fantasy seasons but not in 2026, preferring Breece Hall (5-6 picks later) and Josh Jacobs ahead of Love.

Burrow is arguably the only overpriced quarterback in fantasy and should not be a mid-sixth round pick; he needs 40 touchdowns to justify his ADP when similar upside can be found with Brock Purdy three rounds later or Dak Prescott a round and a half later.

Burrow is overpriced compared to late-round quarterback alternatives; he averages 19.4 fantasy points per game since 2023, nearly identical to Brock Purdy's 19.5, while being more injury-prone and going seven rounds earlier than Baker Mayfield.

Sixth-round fade and the only overpriced quarterback in the 2025 draft; requires 40 touchdowns to justify mid-sixth-round ADP, a threshold the source views as unrealistic; compared unfavorably to Brock Purdy (who averages 19.5 PPG since 2023 vs. Burrow's 19.4 PPG, goes three rounds later, has a better play caller) and Dak Prescott (similar upside, drafted 1.5 rounds later); also compared to Baker Mayfield, who has posted nearly identical fantasy PPG (0.6 PPG less in 2025, 0.2 less in 2024, 1.5 more in 2023) while going seven rounds earlier; the source emphasizes this is a redraft critique, not a best-ball argument, and notes the late-round QB market (QB7–QB18) is loaded with alternatives.

Jonah Coleman is expected to potentially take over the pass-down role for the Broncos, limiting JK Dobbins' receiving opportunities.

Jonathan Taylor is cited as an example of a rookie running back who took time to get significant touches, with Marlon Mack's ACL injury being a factor in his opportunity.

Historical rookie RB comparison for touch and snap share projection patterns; took until Marlon Mack's ACL injury for Taylor to get significant volume, illustrating how rookie running backs often don't receive projected touches and snap share immediately.

Preferred ahead of Jeremiah Love in projections despite off-field concerns causing him to slip in drafts toward the 3–4 turn. The source has Jacobs ranked above Love due to Love's bad offensive situation and quarterback concerns.

The analyst prefers Josh Jacobs over Jeremiah Love, noting Jacobs is getting an off-the-field discount and starting to slip in drafts towards the 3-4 turn, making him a better value.

Scott Barrett calls Justin Jefferson a spicier take for round one fade, noting he 'sucked ass last year' and showed a floor no one else in round one or two had. From week 10 to season end (final 9 games), he averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game, ranking 46th and tied with Theo Wease.

Jefferson showed a floor of 8.6 fantasy points per game from week 10 onward (ranked 46th), tied with Theo Wease and barely ahead of Chimere Dike, demonstrating historically poor performance that makes him a round-one fade.

Under Kyler Murray, Jefferson faces significant downside risk as Murray has only had one wide receiver finish top-24 in total fantasy points throughout his career and is not historically wide receiver-friendly.

Jefferson's floor is significantly lower than JSN despite having a top-five ceiling, making him a poor round-one pick compared to other elite receivers.

Jefferson showed major red flags on film with regression each year, and the Vikings had worse EPA per play with him on the field than off the field last year—a stat that should never happen for a star player.

Justin Jefferson was so bad last year, and at his current price point, there are better wide receiver options available.

Fantasy Points identifies Justin Jefferson as the spicier round-one fade, calling his 2024 performance 'colossally bad' with a floor no other round-one or round-two player possessed. From week 10 through the end of the fantasy season (final nine games), Jefferson averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game, ranking 46th overall—tied with Theo Wease and barely ahead of Chimere Dike. Vikings' EPA per play was worse with Jefferson on field than off field last year—a red flag for a star player. Film shows regression from 2023 to 2024. Jefferson retains top-5 ceiling due to talent, but his floor is significantly lower than Jalen Nailor. If JJ McCarthy is the Vikings starter, Jefferson's 2025 outlook could be 'apocalyptically bad.'

Keenan Allen still has it and maintains amazing rapport with Justin Herbert; as an older route-running technician who was never highly athletic, he should age more gracefully than athletic receivers due to relying on deception, IQ, and film study rather than raw athleticism.

The source believes Keenan Allen 'still got it' and has maintained amazing rapport with Justin Herbert. Allen exemplifies older route-running technicians who age gracefully because their game relies on deception, IQ, and film study rather than raw athleticism. Despite being priced like he's retired, the source is not worried about Allen's ability to contribute in the Chargers offense.

Kyler Murray's passing production is limited, with a career high of 270 yards per game in 2021 and a career average of 230 yards per game—never exceeding 250 in any other season, making him an upgrade over JJ McCarthy but still a weak passer.

Kyren Williams, even in a split with Blake Corum, might be preferred over Travis Etienne because the Rams offense is going to be really good.

Ladd McConkey is a fade in the fourth round despite impressive second-half rookie season stats (20.7 PPG, 26% target share, 106.8 yards per game); he was terrible last year and there are better wide receivers at his price point.

Ladd McConkey averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game with a 26% target share and 106.8 yards per game in the second half of his rookie season—the best by any rookie wide receiver all time, better than Puka Nacua, Jamar Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers.

McConkey is overpriced at his current ADP as wide receiver 16-17 despite clear WR1 upside; he was fourth in yards per route run when all three Chargers WRs were on field, behind Keenan Allen, QJ, and Johnston, representing a significant drop-off from his elite rookie season performance.

McConkey averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game with a 26% target share and 106.8 yards per game in the second half of his rookie season, the best by any rookie wide receiver all time—better than Puka Nacua, Jamar Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers.

The source fades McConkey in round 4 despite elite rookie second-half production. McConkey averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game with 26% target share and 106.8 yards per game in the second half of his rookie season—the best by any rookie WR all time, surpassing Puka Nacua, Jamar Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers. However, full-year performance was poor ('he was so bad last year') and there are better WRs in his draft range. When all three Chargers wide receivers were on the field simultaneously, McConkey ranked fourth in yards per route run behind Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Jalen Johnston, suggesting role compression and reduced alpha status. The source states: 'I'm fading Ladd McConkey... there's wide receivers in that range I like more.'

Le'Veon Bell is cited as an example of a rookie running back who had a rough rookie season by efficiency before turning it on in his sophomore year.

Luther Burden is preferred straight up over Ladd McConkey at their respective draft prices, representing better value in the wide receiver range.

The source prefers Luther Burden straight up over Ladd McConkey, suggesting Burden offers better value or upside at their respective draft prices in the wide receiver range.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the player being targeted as a fade in round seven; while there's an argument he could be a round-three pick if healthy, the analyst expresses concern about his durability and value at his current ADP.

Analyst refuses to draft him in round 7, citing only two career 100-yard games (both as a rookie), missed time last year, and concerns about nepotism in his top-5 draft selection rather than merit-based evaluation.

Analyst notes mental concerns with Harrison based on tape review, including a dropped end-zone pass where he appeared emotional and moped throughout the game, though talent remains present.

Second analyst argues Harrison's current draft price (WR33) is fair value, noting he played 9 full games with 60%+ snaps last year, posting 21% target share and 42% air yards for 13.8 expected fantasy points per game (WR13 by XFP).

Analyst notes Harrison likely won't be the clear number-one receiver unless he takes a significant step forward, with Trey McBride clearly positioned as the alpha target.

Analyst warns of significant downside risk if backup QB Jacoby Brissett underperforms or Carson Beck takes over, which could bury both Harrison and Michael Wilson in fantasy production.

When both Harrison and Wilson were on field last year, Harrison led with 25.7% target share (top-12 ranking), with McBride at 25.2%, suggesting Harrison was already the alpha receiver.

When on field with Michael Wilson, MHJ led in target share at 25.7%, which would have ranked top 12, but had a concerning 1.31 yards per route run, which is awful.

Despite high target share, Harrison posted only 1.31 yards per route run last year, which is considered awful efficiency.

Seventh-round fade with significant concerns: limited career production (two 100-yard games, both as a rookie), injury history (missed time last year with appendicitis), and role uncertainty in new regime; when healthy in nine full games last year, posted 21% target share and 42% air yards (13.8 expected fantasy points per game, WR13 by XFP), which would rank top 12 in target/air yard share; however, posted concerning 1.31 yards per route run (awful efficiency), raising questions about converting volume into production; significant downside risk if Jacoby Brissett underperforms and Carson Beck (graded around 5 by Brett Whitfield) starts in second half; current price at WR33 is deemed fair but not a core target.

The analyst is fading Matthew Golden in round 10, stating he will not draft a single share of this player and has been a hater throughout the process.

Round 10 fade. The source has been a consistent hater throughout the evaluation process and explicitly states he will not draft a single share of Golden in round 10. The source's prospect model rated Isaiah Bond as a better prospect than Golden, indicating a fundamental preference for Bond's profile over Golden's.

When Harrison missed time last year, Michael Wilson emerged significantly, accumulating four times as many career good games as Harrison has in his entire career.

Analyst warns of significant downside risk if backup QB Jacoby Brissett underperforms or Carson Beck takes over, which could bury both Harrison and Michael Wilson in fantasy production.

When both Harrison and Wilson were on field last year, Wilson's target share dropped to 15.8% (WR49), well below both Harrison and McBride.

Michael Wilson had a target share of just 15.8%, ranking him as wide receiver 49 when MHJ and McBride were on field.

Emerged as secondary option when Marvin Harrison Jr. was sidelined; now has four times as many career good games as Harrison Jr.; when both were on field last year, Wilson posted 15.8% target share (WR49 ranking), significantly behind Harrison Jr.'s 25.7% (top 12); however, Wilson's emergence during Harrison's absence suggests potential for continued role expansion or at least maintained opportunity in 2025.

Patrick Mahomes is not the same deep throwing quarterback he was early in his career and is coming off an ACL tear, which may impact his deep passing ability.

Mike McDaniel is drooling over Quentin Johnston as his Deebo Samuel-lite in a role where Johnston can excel; he led all wide receivers in missed tackles forced per reception last year and was a YAC god in college, fitting the Deebo mold of a below-average separator who excels in space.

Mike McDaniel is 'drooling over' Quentin Johnston as his Deebo Samuel-lite, comparing him to Julio Jones and Andre Johnson. Johnston led all wide receivers in missed tackles forced per reception last year and was a YAC god in college. Though he ranks dead last in air yards since entering the league and can't separate, the Deebo role—which never required elite separation—suits his skill set perfectly.

When Rashee Rice is healthy and not dealing with off-field issues, Xavier Worthy's role becomes completely worthless for fantasy purposes.

Scott Barrett is a 'Rashid Shaheed truther' who believes he's more involved in the Seahawks offense this year after joining mid-season, which will contribute to JSN's regression.

Scott Barrett notes Rashid Shaheed joined the Seahawks mid-season and is 'really good,' with Barrett identifying as a long-time Shaheed truther who expects increased involvement in 2025. Shaheed's emergence is cited as a key reason for JSN's regression risk and overpriced ADP.

Stevenson was significantly better than Henderson in EPA per play splits and is the better fit for Josh McDaniels' man gap run scheme preferences.

Clear lead back in the Patriots backfield ahead of Trayveon Henderson; significantly outperformed Henderson in playoff games and EPA-per-play splits; better fit for Josh McDaniels' man-gap run scheme (which favors Stevenson over Henderson's outside-zone skill set); ranked ahead of Henderson in Fantasy Points' projections.

RJ Harvey is expected to take over the pass-down role for the Broncos, potentially limiting JK Dobbins' receiving opportunities.

Terry McLaurin is preferred straight up over Ladd McConkey at their respective draft prices, representing better value in the wide receiver range.

The source and co-host both prefer Terry McLaurin straight up over Ladd McConkey at their respective ADPs, indicating McLaurin offers better value or upside in the wide receiver range where McConkey is being drafted.

Travis Etienne is a fade in the third round due to poor efficiency metrics: third worst in yards per carry among 40 RBs over three seasons, bottom 10 in explosive run rate, third worst in success rate, bottom 10 in yards after contact per attempt, and second worst in EPA per run.

Etienne is one of the most mispriced players on the board in the third round; analysts prefer Javonte Williams, Cam Akers (with good health), or even Kyren Williams in a split with Blake Corum straight up.

Etienne's pass-catching role is severely limited with Alvin Kamara on the roster; Kamara plays on passing downs and is a locker room favorite, making it unlikely Etienne wrestles away high-value target touches.

The source 'absolutely hates' Etienne at his current price and allocates 0.0% draft capital to him. Over three seasons, Etienne ranks third-worst in yards per carry, bottom-10 in explosive run rate, third-worst in success rate, bottom-10 in yards after contact per attempt, and second-worst in EPA per run among 40 RBs. He has not been very efficient on the ground and is an overrated pass catcher, miscast as a good receiver coming out of college; he's primarily a dump-and-run or screen guy. Alvin Kamara, even at the end of his career in a worse offensive situation, has been more efficient, forced more missed tackles, and been better than Etienne. The source states: 'he kind of stinks... he might be one of the worst picks at cost in all of drafts... I will have a 0.0 of Etienne this year... we're not drafting you in round three.'

The analyst absolutely hates Travis Etienne in the first three rounds, noting that Alvin Kamara has been more efficient and forced more missed tackles even at the end of his career, and Etienne has not been very efficient on the ground and is an overrated pass catcher.

Henderson was a non-factor in the most important games last season, with only a 25% snap share in the playoffs and significantly worse EPA per play splits compared to Rhamondre Stevenson.

Henderson is a great outside zone run guy but Josh McDaniels calls outside zone at a bottom-five rate and prefers man gap schemes where Rhamondre Stevenson is the better fit.

Henderson had only 8 XFP in 17 games played alongside Rhamondre Stevenson last year and would need to literally double that output to justify his fifth-round ADP.

Fantasy Points has Henderson buried in projections at RB 29 and ranks Rhamondre Stevenson ahead of him, indicating they are completely out on Henderson at his fifth-round ADP.

Henderson had only 8 XFP in 17 games played alongside Stevenson last year and is a fifth-round pick who would need to literally double that output to justify his ADP. Fantasy Points has him buried at RB29 with Rhamondre Stevenson ahead of him.

Henderson is the most expensive handcuff in football, as his upside depends entirely on a Stevenson injury, making him a risky fifth-round pick in the running back dead zone.

Fifth-round fade with RB 29 projection; accumulated only 8 XFP across 17 games played alongside Stevenson in 2024, requiring him to essentially double that output to justify ADP; the source is completely out on Henderson, ranking him below Stevenson and identifying him as the lead player in the fifth-round running back dead zone.

Backfield competition concern for Jeremiah Love in Arizona; looked incredible at Florida State but is part of Arizona's crowded running back committee that includes James Conner, Tyler Allgeier, and Breece Hall Robinson, limiting Love's touch share.

Trey Benson looked incredible at Florida State and is part of a crowded Arizona running back committee that creates touch competition for Jeremiah Love.

Analyst highlights McBride as the clear alpha target for Arizona, consistently commanding 25% of targets regardless of health status.

Trey McBride was just half a percentage point behind MHJ in target share when both were on field.

Established as clear alpha receiver in Arizona Cardinals offense; consistently commands 25% target share regardless of health status. The source notes McBride 'rolls out of bed and gets 25% of the targets. He could be injured and get 25% of the targets.' When both McBride and Harrison Jr. were on field last year, McBride posted 25.0% target share (half percentage point behind Harrison Jr.'s 25.7%), confirming his entrenched role as primary option in the Cardinals passing game.

Tua Tagovailoa led the league in deep passing with Tyreek Hill despite having limited arm strength, demonstrating Hill's ability to elevate quarterback performance.

Backfield competition concern for Jeremiah Love in Arizona; may steal goal-line carries, adding to the touch committee in Arizona's crowded running back room alongside Trey Benson and James Conner.

Tyler Allgeier might steal a few goal-line carries from Jeremiah Love in the Cardinals backfield, creating touch competition.

Tyquan Thornton is a better deep threat than Xavier Worthy and has superior ball tracking ability compared to Worthy's career worst yards per target on deep passes.

Tyquan Thornton is a better deep threat than Xavier Worthy; he has superior ball-tracking ability and athleticism, making him a more reliable deep-ball receiver. Though Thornton was the worst deep-ball receiver in college by career yards per target on deep passes, he has since developed into a superior ball tracker compared to Worthy; his athleticism and tape improvement make him a better deep-threat option. The source has been a Thornton truther since college and prefers him over Worthy at their respective draft prices.

Tyreek Hill is described as a kingmaker and the greatest offensive player non-quarterback of the generation, elevating quarterbacks' deep passing ability and creating wide-open plays.

Xavier Worthy is being drafted in round 8 but should be a 10th-12th round pick; he's wide receiver 54 in points per game over the last two seasons yet drafted as a top 45 WR.

Xavier Worthy has never been a good deep threat; he's tiny and really bad at tracking the ball in the air, which was evident on his tape last year.

Xavier Worthy is clearly the third target on the Chiefs and has been completely worthless for fantasy when playing alongside Rashee Rice, posting sub-10 XFP per game.

The analyst is not a fan of Xavien Worthy, citing structural concerns with the Dolphins' passing game and quarterback arm strength limitations despite Tyreek Hill's deep-ball success.

Xavier Worthy is being drafted in round 8 as a top-45 WR despite ranking WR54 in points per game over the last two seasons; the source believes he should be a 10th–12th round pick at best, making his current ADP an insane overvalue. He has never been a good deep threat; Brett Whitfield has documented that he is poor at tracking the ball in the air, a weakness that showed up all over his tape last year; combined with his small frame, this limits his ceiling in the Chiefs passing game. In games where Worthy plays alongside a healthy Rashee Rice, his fantasy production has been completely worthless, posting sub-10 XFP per game; he is clearly the third target on the Chiefs and will see limited volume. Patrick Mahomes is not the same deep-throwing quarterback he was early in his career and is coming off an ACL tear; combined with the Chiefs leaning more run-heavy with Ken Walker involved, Worthy faces structural headwinds that limit his upside.

The source is completely out on Worthy as a draft target, citing structural limitations in the Kansas City offense. Despite the Chiefs leading the league in deep passing with Tyreek Hill, the source views Worthy as lacking the elite separation ability to consistently exploit that strength and prefers to avoid the receiver tier where Worthy falls, instead waiting on quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence before dipping into that receiver pool.

Zay Flowers is preferred straight up over Ladd McConkey at their respective draft prices, representing better value in the wide receiver range.

The source prefers Zay Flowers straight up over Ladd McConkey, indicating Flowers offers better value or upside at their respective draft prices in the wide receiver range.