These 3 Things Are RUINING Your Fantasy Football Season! 🚨 (2026)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 8, 2026
Published
Wed, July 8, 2026
27
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldBrock PurdyJoe BurrowJosh AllenKyler MurrayMatthew StaffordTee HigginsTerry McLaurinC.J. StroudDak PrescottDerrick HenryJames CookJared GoffJosh Jacobs
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
PositiveValue0:17
Baker Mayfield is available deep at quarterback (around QB21) and gets a great opening schedule with the Bengals in week one (shootout game) and home against the Browns without Miles Garrett.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:17
Baker Mayfield has been QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons and has actually outscored Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy by 0.1 fantasy points per game in that span.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveProjection0:11
Brock Purdy is ranked QB9 in projections with very little separation from other quarterbacks in the QB7-QB17 tier, going in the 80s-100s overall.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:14
Brock Purdy is available much later in drafts and represents good value as a late-round quarterback option.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveValue0:14
CJ Stroud could be a late-round value if his offensive line projects well, making him available much later in drafts.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveValue0:14
Dak Prescott is available much later in drafts and represents good value as a late-round quarterback option.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveUsage0:01
Derrick Henry had a monster 2024 season on a free agent contract, contributing to the revolution of the run game.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveUsage0:02
James Cook is expected to continue the run game revolution trend in 2025, similar to the monster seasons seen in 2024.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveProjection0:11
Jared Goff is ranked QB17 in projections with very little separation from QB9-QB10, going in the 80s-100s overall.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection0:12
Joe Burrow needed 43 passing touchdowns to crack the top 12 quarterbacks in playoff advance rate over the last two seasons, indicating he was not a consistent playoff performer despite early-round ADP.
Insight pageNegativeValue0:14
Joe Burrow should be avoided because he has an archetype that requires 35-40 touchdown passes to really hit, yet he's being priced as if he will achieve that level of production.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection0:10
Josh Allen is the only early-round quarterback the analyst would consider, potentially falling to the mid-40s, and is noted as having a monster 2025 season as a rusher.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:13
Josh Allen is one of the analyst's most drafted quarterbacks in best ball formats because he provides an edge against those rooms, though he's willing to attack him if he falls to the mid-fourth round in regular redraft leagues.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveUsage0:01
Josh Jacobs had a monster 2024 season on a free agent contract, exemplifying the run game revolution.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection0:11
Justin Herbert is ranked QB10 in projections with very little separation from other quarterbacks in the QB7-QB17 tier, going in the 80s-100s overall.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection0:13
Kyler Murray is noted as having questions surrounding him, positioning him as a late-round quarterback option rather than an early-round target.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:13
Kyler Murray has questions surrounding him that may affect his draft position relative to other running quarterbacks.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury0:11
Lamar Jackson was injured early as an early-round pick last year, exemplifying the injury risk of early-round quarterbacks.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
PositiveProjection0:14
Matthew Stafford won the MVP last year, demonstrating the value available at the quarterback position.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:14
Matthew Stafford won MVP last year but is not expected to carry fantasy teams to success in the same way because he doesn't run the football much and needs specific circumstances to hit.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveProjection0:17
Patrick Mahomes has been outscored by Baker Mayfield by 0.1 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveUsage0:01
Saquon had a monster 2024 season on a free agent contract, exemplifying the revolution of the run game that continued into 2025.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveValue0:09
Tee Higgins is going as late as 43 overall on FFPC, one of the sharpest ADP sources, representing excellent value in the mid-round receiver tier.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:09
Tee Higgins is going as late as the 43rd pick on FFPC, representing exceptional value in a year identified as one of the best for mid-round receiver production.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveValue0:09
Terry McLaurin is being drafted in the mid-40s overall, representing strong value in the mid-round receiver tier this season.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:09
Terry McLaurin is being drafted in the mid-40s, representing strong value in the mid-round receiver pocket that the analyst identifies as one of the best years for receiver value in the third to eighth round.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveValue0:14
Trevor Lawrence is quarterback 10 in projections and extremely affordable in fantasy football drafts, potentially solving the Jaguars wide receiver quandary.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Fantasy Football Daily is back. We've got an awesome episode today going through three keys to the fantasy football success this season. And I've
0:09enlisted my guys, Joe Dolan, who's our managing editor here at Fantasy Points, and Tom Browley, who's our resident betting expert >> Joe Tom and I, we usually do like a FFPC
0:28highstakes league every single year. I'm sure we're going to run that back this year, boys. Absolutely. But we're going to be
0:32>> Yeah, we're going to be talking three keys to fantasy football success this season. three keys that are going to get
0:38you guys geared up for your leagues and to dominate in all of your leagues this year. Joe, let's get it started with
0:44you, man. I know you've got some some takes on passing games and just kind of like where we're at in the current NFL
0:50meta. Last couple seasons have been rough for for passing. Passing in general is just down over the last couple of seasons. Should we expect some
0:58sort of bounce back this year? What are you seeing? Yeah. So, um, obviously, as all of us do here at Fantasy Points, we
1:05piggyback off of the research of Chris Wet, who's our projections, and then the wonderful Ryan Heath, who obviously appears on this very channel, a lot.
1:13And, um, I think a lot of people are kind of back into an old school approach with fantasy football drafting. Running
1:21backs early, running backs early, and it's hard to not get into that because of how many of the appealing running backs are really off the board by like
1:28the end of the third or end of the fourth round. And I understand all of that. Um, and one thing that has
1:34happened the last couple of years is like wide receiver twos on fantasy teams. So like like we're talking like wide receiver 13 to 24 on average in
1:44ADP, not like wide receiver 2 on an NFL team. Their production has kind of plummeted the last couple of years. And
1:50there's multiple reasons that people are assigning to this, right? They're assigning u the revolution of the run game. Obviously 2024 had that monster
1:59Saquon season and the monster Derrick Henry season and the monster Josh Jacobs season all on free agent contracts and we saw those teams really run the ball
2:08to to great success. 2025 a lot more of the same, including like somebody like James Cook, even though Saquon fell off,
2:15the the revolution of the run game. And then obviously everybody who has ever like listened to an NFL program or US or
2:24a fantasy program or a betting program, everybody knows about 2025 and the 12 personnel and the 13 personnel and the multi-tight end sets. And the thing is,
2:33when you put more tight ends on the field, you've got to take wide receivers off. There are only five eligible receivers on every play. That has not
2:40changed in my nearly 20 years in the fantasy industry. Trends have changed, but five eligible receivers has not. So, obviously, people are like, "Oh, man.
2:48Teams are running the ball more. Teams are playing heavier personnel more.
2:53They're they're they're just taking all of these wide receivers off the field."
2:57And I think that makes sense, right?
2:59Like you're like, "My wide receiver isn't playing as many snaps, so he's not going to score as many fantasy points."
3:03And I think that is something to do with uh the decline in production. But Ryan Heath found out over the last two
3:13seasons, the top 30 wide receivers in ADP have played outlierishly low number of games. In 2025, they played just 79%
3:24of available games. In 2024, they played just 81% of available games. over the last 11 NFL seasons, those are the two
3:33lowest numbers in terms of percentage of games played for top 30 ADP wide receivers. And in 2025,
3:42that coincided with quarterbacks playing just 78% of their games, top 15 ADP quarterbacks. So that was the second lowest, tied for the second lowest in
3:54the last 11 seasons. So in 2025, we had this real conflration of things going on. Increased heavy personnel,
4:04decreased availability for wide receivers, decreased availability for quarterbacks. Um, so all of these things came together and Ryan just simply put
4:14it in his wonderful article, uh, his fantasy football takeaways from 2025 that he thinks really variance and the the the fact that football's a contact
4:24sport just really played more into the decline of the wide receivers more so than the increase in heavy personnel.
4:32I'm not saying that, and I don't think Ryan's saying either, that we shouldn't place more of a focus on these Bellcow
4:37running backs because these guys are still really the league winners. But man, if the quarterbacks and the wide receivers are just a little bit
4:45healthier this year, couldn't you guys see some of the most successful teams being teams that maybe spread it around at the wide receiver position the way we
4:54were used to doing just a couple of years ago before these 11, excuse me, these 12 and 13 personnel sets. I think
5:00it's a really and I'm not sure I know the answer to that, but I just think it's a really intelligent way to think
5:05about things as opposed to, oh, they're just taking all their wide receivers off the field.
5:10Following that thread, Joe, this is an incredible year for a bounceback season at wide receiver. I've been saying on a number of programs that like this is one
5:18of the best years I can ever remember for receivers in that third to like eighth round bucket, fourth to eighth round bucket. So, if it is somewhat
5:25variance, not just the current NFL meta of like, hey, two high safeties, limit, you know, don't don't give up the big
5:32play downfield, limit big, you know, big deep passing, force guys into the short and intermediate area, force guys to just kind of make you miss after the
5:39catch. If that's the case, we're going to see just some incredible wide receiver seasons in terms of value this season across the board. Uh you look at
5:48the production over the last uh 15 years, passers averaged just 210 yards per game. Last year it was the lowest passing yards per game we've seen by
5:59quarterback since 2006.
6:02Uh you know, passing really started taking off there in the 2010s and then kind of has really plateaued here in the
6:082020s. I I like this call a lot. It's not just the it's not just, you know, the current NFL meta, but it's just like
6:15outlierish bad injury rates at wide receiver. And Joe, you know, to your point and to Ryan's point, this has usually been a position that is
6:23significantly healthier than than running backs in general. Receivers get injured less often and have less frequent severe injuries than running backs. So, I I think there's kind of
6:33like a number of factors at play.
6:35That's, you know, receiver in this mid- round pocket this year. That's where you want to be spending your money. I agree
6:40that you want to get at least one or two running backs in the early rounds, but the I think it makes more sense than
6:46ever than to go hard on receivers in the mid rounds. Uh Joe, Tom, you you guys uh we we drafted an awesome team from the
6:54106. We kind of went we we we had the same exact basically uh you know, strategy in that draft where running
7:02backs flew off the board early in the first three rounds. We pivoted and went hard on receivers in the mid rounds and
7:07that team shaked out really well. And I think that's one of the things you're going to have to be adjusting for in
7:12your draft, especially if you're in a room where running backs get pushed up even more. You're going to have to be
7:17able to pivot in that third and fourth round and not be afraid of receiver production this season.
7:22>> Yeah, I I found myself that's kind of my I I've always been a hero running back type of drafter.
7:28We did the same thing in that draft of the 106 at the sixth position in our little YouTube video. And we we really
7:36really did nail a hero running back draft. But I have found myself gravitating a little bit more towards grabbing two running backs early just
7:44because I do like the the pocket of uh receivers, especially in the fourth round. I love a lot of the guys that are
7:51available in that range. I've been drafting a lot of th those guys there.
7:55fifth round as well uh in into the sixth round. So, I've been, you know, most of my drafts have been kind of running back
8:03focused early, getting getting some of those uh Bellcal types in the in the first, second, and third round and kind of focusing on wide receivers in the
8:11fourth, fifth, and sixth round. Uh we we were kind of going through some some of the different rounds on the SiriusXM
8:17show, and there's a there's a lot of wide receiver two types that are available in that range that maybe can make the jump. I'm taking more chances
8:25in that range. Uh in previous years, I've kind of tried to load up at the wide receiver position early in this the
8:32first three rounds, at least get like two wide receivers, but I've kind of changed my stripes a little bit this year and u maybe we see a little bit of
8:40a bounce back from those wide receiver twos, but uh I've been trying to take more chances in that range and see if
8:46one of those guys emerges. So, a little bit different strategy type for me. I I am following what other people are doing
8:53and and trying to you know I I don't want to get left behind at the running back position and a lot of that has to
8:59do with you know that we don't see as many like passing back types uh you know catching a ton of passes and so I I do
9:08think it is a little tougher to go with like a zero RB type of strategy and um so yeah I I I've done it a little bit
9:15differently this this summer because of the recent treads we've seen but uh go Running back early for me?
9:22>> Yeah, running back early has been the name of the game this this season. That is for sure. This is the most running
9:28backs we have ever seen drafted in the top 20. I went back and looked at this in the top 20 overall. It's by far the
9:33most running backs we've had in that pocket. Uh basically going back to like the stone ages before before passing really started taking out since 2010. Uh
9:42but yeah, to your point, I mean the mid rounds of the receivers this year are just incredible. I mean, we've got Terry
9:47McLaren drafted in the mid-40s. We got T. Higgins over on FFPC. He's going as early or excuse me, as late as 43
9:54overall over on FFPC. That's one of the sharpest, if not the sharpest uh ADP source and source of uh, you know, just
10:01high dollar value of of, you know, drafters going and drafting right now.
10:05Ted McMillan, Lad Manki, two, you know, second year and third year wide receivers that could be prime for breakouts, both going in the early 40s
10:12over on FFBC. It is just an awesome awesome season uh for these, you know, mid-round receivers and, you know, running backs getting pushed up the
10:19board has definitely opened up this kind of value equation in that pocket. All right, guys. My key for this season, it
10:27kind of blends into your y'all's two keys as well. I am basically not touching quarterback early unless Josh Allen falls to me like in the mid4s. I
10:36am just completely going with a late round quarterback build this year. I want to be spending my draft capital early on running backs like Tom was
10:43saying and then I want to spend the middle of the fourth, fifth, and sixth rounds targeting some of these receivers and getting some of my guys that fall
10:50throughout the draft. It's a two-pronged thing. I think we have just an incredible talent pool of quarterbacks this year. Uh you look at our
10:58projections basically from QB7 to QB 17 is just one big long flat tier this season. very there's very little
11:07separation between Jared Goff at QB17 to Brock Perie and Justin Herbert uh at QB9 QB10 in our projections. So it's just a
11:17really nice tier to draft from and all those players are going in the you know 80s 90s to 100s overall and then you
11:23look at you know the last two seasons has been dominated by late round quarterbacks and Joe this is more to your point I think that quarterbacks
11:30have just not been able to stay healthy.
11:32Jane Daniels, Lamar Jackson last year, both getting hurt as early round picks, but nine out of the top 12 quarterbacks in playoff advance rate have been
11:41drafted at 100 or later in ADP over the last two seasons. Nine out of the 12.
11:47The only three quarterbacks who have, you know, were going before that and, you know, earlier than 100 uh ADP overall were Lamar Jackson in 2024 had
11:56the monster season. Josh Allen 2025 last year has the monster season as a rusher.
12:01And then Joe Burrow, he needed 43 passing touchdowns and 24 to get into this top 12 and playoff advance rate over the last two seasons. I think this
12:10is just an awesome year for late round quarterback. We have a number of quarterbacks that we're going to be targeting. We'll save those for future
12:17videos. But I think at the end of the day, structurally, this is the way that you want to build your teams. You want
12:22to be trying to, you know, build around running back early. At least get one hero running back in your first two
12:28rounds. Kind of like Tom was saying, spend your time getting value in the fourth and fifth and sixth rounds at receiver and push quarterback a little
12:36bit later than you typically would in previous years. As a side key, this is a side key here. I always write our
12:43Superflex strategy article that has been super successful for our uh Fantasy Point subscribers over the last couple of years, identifying some late round
12:52quarterbacks and mid-round quarterbacks that have beaten ADP. I think this this is a perfect year for that. I think this is a perfect year to push the position.
13:00Maybe you do get your quarterback in the first round, but you should be willing to wait much later this year to get your
13:06QB2, get your QB3, spend the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth rounds. Uh spend those, you know, picks on premium positions, not at quarterback because
13:16this is just such an awesome year for late round quarterback.
13:20>> I think I completely agree with that.
13:22And I I' I'm typically a late round quarterback guy myself. always have been. Um there was the couple of years ago when the running quarterbacks were
13:29really dominating fantasy where you kind of wanted to get one of the Allens, the Lamars, the Jaylen Herz's. Um I think
13:36all of those guys are kind of pushed up the board. Maybe with the exception of like a Bo Knicks, not that he has that
13:41level of upside. Um or a Kyler Murray because obviously there are questions about him. Um I I honestly to me this
13:48really depends on your league as well.
13:51Like I know I'm going to be in some quote unquote expert leagues this year where people are just doing stupid things like letting the top quarterback
13:58fall into the fifth round and then there's a way to create some variance here. But I think for 95% of leagues out
14:04there, for the people listening to this, waiting on quarterback is the right call. I mean, look, Matthew Stafford won the MVP last year. I'm not trying to
14:10tell you that somebody who's available in the 12th round of your league is going to win MVP um and carry you to
14:16fantasy football success, but that's just because he's a guy who does not run the football a lot. And you know, a lot
14:23of things need to go right. But you know, that's why I I think Graham you were talking about with Ryan Heath why
14:28you were avoiding Joe Burrow because he has that archetype of a guy who needs the 3540 touchdown passes to really hit.
14:36Well, but you're paying as if he is going to do that. There are guys down there on the board like Dak Prescott,
14:43um, like Brock Pury. I mean, even if you squint and you could see it from like CJ Strad, if that offensive line projects
14:49him that are available so much later in drafts. One of my the things I've been saying this offseason is what if the
14:55answer to this Jaguars wide receiver quandry is just to draft Trevor Lawrence, you know, who's like quarterback 10 in our projections and is
15:03extremely affordable in fantasy football drafts. So, I think you have it right on the head there. Even if I'd be more more
15:09willing to like attack Josh Allen uh if he falls down the board to me in underdog fantasy for best baseball, which is not what managed listeners want
15:17to want to see. He's actually one of my most drafted quarterbacks because I think he gives you a level of an edge
15:22against th those rooms. Uh but that's a different strategy than just a regular reddraft league. Yeah, the quarterbacks I from like QB7 uh starting with like
15:32Jackson Dart about 80 picks into the draft uh all the way down to like QB19, QB 20 with Tyler Shuck. I mean there's
15:40even Kyler Murray at QB21. I feel pretty comfortable with all those guys and I do not see a major difference between a lot
15:48of those guys. So, uh, that's, you know, 14 15 different quarterbacks, uh, that are going, you know, 80, you know, 80
15:56some picks into draft. So, if you can really hold off at the position, you can load up at the other other spots. Uh, I
16:03I, you know, especially in single quart quarterback formats, I mean, we we did it yesterday in our draft in the sixth
16:10spot, waited to that last round to select a quarterback. Uh, I feel pretty comfortable with a lot of those guys in
16:16that range. So, uh, I I really do like holding off, but as Joe said, there's always, you know, if you get in an
16:22expert draft or maybe one of these high stakes leagues, nobody wants to be the the first person to kind of pull the
16:28trigger on the quarterback. So, you always got to kind of monitor it. It is always league dependent. But, uh, at some point there is always a quarterback
16:36at a value like you were saying with Josh Allen. Maybe if he starts to fall into the midf mid fourth round, maybe
16:41that's the time to start, uh, you know, considering Josh Allen.
16:45in a lot of these home home league type of uh formats. It it is worth waiting and kind of selecting your quarterback
16:53last and you'll have a you know a great great set of quarterbacks to pick from.
16:57I think it's pretty much 21 quarterbacks deep at the position right now.
17:02>> I I agree. I think it's about 20 to 21 deep as well going all the way down even to Baker Mayfield. If you're you know
17:07drafting your reddraft manage league right now this early. I mean he gets a great opening schedule. He gets the Bengals in week one. That's going to be
17:13a shootout game. Then he gets to play at home against the Browns with no Miles Garrett. You know, Baker's been QB6 in
17:19fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. He's actually outscored Patrick Mahomes and Brock Perie by fantasy points per game by onetenth of a
17:26point in that span. We are just loaded up at quarterback this uh this season.
17:31It is an awesome awesome year to uh wait at quarterback. Late round quarterback is back in vogue, baby. It is my that's
17:39my favorite way to draft. Every year is my favorite way to draft late round quarterback. I have changed my stripes a
17:44little bit in recent years, chasing some of the quarterback upside, you know, going in the 50 60 range after the running back and wide receiver tier
17:51dies. But this year, I'm I'm all the way back in. Speaking of loading up, we have been loading you guys up with videos
17:57here at Fantasy Points. We crush these videos, doing two a days every single week here on the Fantasy Football Daily feed along with our YouTube channel.
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