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Ryan Heath's Round 2 RB Tiers and Rankings - Fantasy Football 2026

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 18 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Jul 27, 2026

Published

Mon, July 27, 2026

12

Player insights

12

Players mentioned

Topics

Chase BrownChristian McCaffreyDe'Von AchaneDerek CarrDerrick HenryIsiah PachecoJames CookKareem HuntKenneth Walker IIIKimani VidalRaheem MostertTee Higgins

Player analysis

Player insights

12

Chase Brown

PositiveProjection11:08

Chase Brown is an A-tier round 2 RB with a full-blown bellcow workload (entire early-down role with only Sam Hubbard siphoning off a few third-down snaps) and elite floor/ceiling. He averaged 21 fantasy points per game in games where Joe Burrow started and finished, and 20.1 PPG in other games with normal workload since week 9 of 2024—consistently 20+ PPG regardless of scenario, projecting as a high-end RB1. He ranks top five in route participation rate and targets per game (5+ targets per game), securing goal-line and passing-down work, and became the third most common RB on ESPN championship-winning rosters. The Bengals are the second-highest scoring offense in football behind the Rams in implied points per game, amplifying his ceiling. However, his touchdown upside may be capped because Joe Burrow is projected to push for 40 touchdowns this season, and Cincinnati has been the second-most pass-heavy team in the red zone over the last two seasons, limiting goal-line TD opportunities. Despite this, his floor is exceptional. Colton Miller views Brown as one of Fantasy Points' highest-ranked players and a potential hero RB candidate. Brown is going as late as the 2-3 turn on ESPN and Sleeper, which Miller considers ridiculous given his workload and consistent floor; he's a top target in early round two and the second-best back on the tier list. Sharp ADP in FFPC/NFC sits at 15-16 overall.

Christian McCaffrey

NegativeMatchup3:39

Colton Miller uses Christian McAffrey as a snap-share comparison point for Ashton Jentry, suggesting Jentry could lead or tie McAffrey in snap share this season, indicating elite workload and role security.

De'Von Achane

PositiveProjection21:59

Devon Achane ranks among the all-time leaders in yards per carry among players with 500+ rushing attempts at 5.6 yards per carry, tied with Derrick Henry's current efficiency with Lamar Jackson and only behind Bo Jackson's 5.4 yards per carry historically. He posted 6.0 YPC last season—the highest mark among running backs—demonstrating elite efficiency on outside carries in Mike McDaniel's scheme.

Derek Carr

NegativeRole8:00

Derek Carr's 2024 Saints offense ranked ninth in EPA per play despite not having a great roster top to bottom. This is cited as evidence of Clint Kubiak's offensive system capability to generate league-average or better efficiency even with limited personnel, supporting optimism that the Raiders (with Carr and Kubiak) can overperform Vegas' conservative implied point-per-game expectations.

Derrick Henry

PositiveProjection30:13

Henry closed 2024 with 85 carries, 570 yards, and 6 TDs in his final 4 games on a struggling Ravens offense, including a 4-TD game against Green Bay in week 17. Colton Miller argues Henry shows no efficiency decline despite age 32 status: since joining the Ravens, Henry trails only Jalen Gibbs in fantasy points over expectations (+4.6); leads all 30+ year old RBs in yards per carry since WWII; posted 9% explosive run rate in Lamar Jackson starts (second only to Devon Achane); has been over 2 fantasy points over expectation in 4 of last 5 seasons—ahead of every superstar RB. Miller rejects age curve application: 'I'm done applying the age curve to Derrick Henry.' Henry is fourth in yards per route run among all RBs since 2021 and leads all RBs in yards per target. With Lamar Jackson, Henry averages 5.6 yards per carry—the most efficient running back in NFL history with Lamar on the field. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, coming from Ben Johnson and Sean Payton's systems, could unlock additional pass-catching upside; if Henry reaches 35 receptions in PPR leagues, he has 'darkhorse RB1 potential.' Henry is B-tier rather than A-tier primarily due to uncertainty around pass-catching volume, but Miller is 'not fading' him.

Isiah Pacheco

NegativeInjury39:18

Colton Miller notes that Isaiah Pacheco returned from a 'really bad ankle injury' in 2024 as 'a shell of himself,' explaining his diminished role and production in the Chiefs backfield. This injury context supports the narrative that Ken Walker enters a backfield vacated by underperforming predecessors, creating opportunity for a more talented player.

James Cook

NegativeValue5:35

James Cook is being used as a direct ADP comparison point for Ashton Genty at the 1-2 turn in real-money drafts (FFPC and Underdog), where the two are essentially a coin flip in draft position. This comparison underscores Genty's rising valuation in competitive formats. James Cook is used as a snap-share comparison point. Will Hampton had four games above 75% snap share last season, which exceeds Cook's snap share frequency, suggesting Hampton's bellcow role was more established than Cook's.

Kareem Hunt

NegativeProjection39:24

Colton Miller characterizes Kareem Hunt's 2024 performance as 'the most washed player to step on a football field in all of last year,' despite averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game (excluding week 18) in the Chiefs backfield. Miller uses Hunt's baseline production to contextualize Ken Walker's potential upside, arguing that Walker's superior talent could elevate the same role to high-end RB1 status.

Kenneth Walker III

PositiveRole39:02

Walker is joining the Chiefs, a top-10 implied points per game offense (tied with Bears for 10th). Colton Miller has 'always been very very high on Ken Walker's talent.' Walker is walking into a 'pretty decent role' where Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco combined produced like a solid RB2; Walker, as 'a real player who can actually create some explosives,' represents meaningful upgrade over that combined production. This is the player Miller has 'struggled with the most in this tier,' suggesting internal conflict on ranking despite the role opportunity.

Kimani Vidal

NegativeUsage24:00

Vidal was out-touched by Will Hampton 34-18 over weeks 15-16 last season when Hampton returned from ankle injury, demonstrating Hampton's clear role advantage. When Vidal played without Hampton in week 17, he posted 80% snap share and scored close to 20 fantasy points, but this does not offset the touch differential that establishes Hampton as the primary back.

Raheem Mostert

NegativeProjection21:59

Raheem Mostert is cited as a historical example of Mike McDaniel's ability to produce elite fantasy running backs. Mostert posted over 17 fantasy points per game in McDaniel's backfield, demonstrating the coach's track record of generating top-five RB production.

Tee Higgins

PositiveValue17:58

Tee Higgins is completely mispriced in the third round. When Joe Burrow is healthy, Higgins has been a top-six fantasy wide receiver, and he benefits from Burrow's projected 40-touchdown season and Cincinnati's pass-heavy red-zone approach (second-most pass-heavy team inside the 10-yard line over the last two seasons).

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

703

0:13Fantasy Football Daily is back and we are here on a Monday with my guy Ryan Heath. I'm Graham, that's Ryan. Hope you

0:21guys had a great weekend and hope you guys are having a great day wherever you're listening to us. We have an

0:26awesome show planned for you guys today.

0:28We're going to be tearing out these second round running backs. And I think this is one of the most difficult and

0:34trickiest and most important spots to get right in fantasy drafts this year.

0:38The second round pocket of running backs and like really like the third and fourth round of receivers. Those are like the two most important pockets it

0:45feels feels like to get right. I employed my guy Ryan Heath to come on and we're going to talk through this

0:50tier list of round two running backs.

0:53Ryan, like going through projections with Chris all off seasonason, these running backs are so so close in our projections. So, I'm excited to talk to

1:00you today to kind of get into the nitty-gritty, get into like underneath the hood with all of these players and talk through some of these tears here.

1:08Me, too, man. Yeah, I was really excited for this show topic because yeah, as you said, it's just a really important

1:15decision to get right. I I think generally I'm relatively high on most of these running backs relative to the other wide receiver options in round

1:25two. Like I think this is what you should be hitting on and thinking about in round two. But yeah, I mean

1:30ultimately when you get up on the clock you can only pick one. So I really want to feel perfect about how I have all of

1:37these guys ranked. Uh as I have Anatomy of a League winner coming out soon, my rankings uh fully will be right out

1:44after that. So yeah, this is also kind of an exercise to audit all of my thoughts on each of these individual

1:49guys that I think are so important. All right. Well, let's let's get into it, man. We'll get into the S tier here

1:54first. And it looks like we've got Ashton Jensy as the clear S tier player in this list. Ryan and I will go back

2:01and forth talking through some of these players. Let's talk through, you know, we've talked a lot about the Raiders changes this off season just between the

2:09quarterback groom, right? like getting significantly better quarterback play, improved offensive line play with Colton Miller and and Tyler Linderbomb being added. But Ashton Jenty, man, like his

2:19role just looks so locked in. It's it looks so good. It would not surprise me, Ryan, if it's like Christian McAffrey

2:25leading all players in Snapshare this season and then Ashton Genty like either right behind him or basically tying him this season for in terms of just like

2:33total workload.

2:35That's a great take and I agree completely. that really is the strongest part of Ashton Genty's profile or the thing that we don't have to kind of

2:43question or project at all is yeah the role was just immediately amazing when he came in as a rookie. Uh just for

2:50comparison 15.2 expected fantasy points per game last year even on an awful offense that's never getting into the red zone. That was higher than both

2:59Bejian Robinson and Jir Gibbs averaged as rookies. Same deal with snapshare. Uh he's up there in route share, up there in target share, basically every

3:09utilization metric. Genty was as good or better than Bejian Robinson and Jir Gibbs. Uh and maybe most importantly inside the 10yd line. Genty was just

3:21completely the Raiders go to 84% of the team's carries in that spot. Gibbs and Robinson weren't even at 40% as rookies.

3:29He just was immediately their goal lineback. And that's so important and that is so big for a running back's fantasy football upside. Of course, it

3:38wasn't realized last year just because the Raiders had yeah this historically bad offense. Uh they only got inside the opposing cad yard line on 23 total

3:48drives all of last season. That's the fourth fewest of any team in the last 5 years. So, just based on math and normal

3:56regression, that's likely coming up even before we get into all of the offensive improvements uh that they have made.

4:04Also, kind of a a nice piece of that is whenever the Raiders are getting in near the goal line this year, we can expect

4:10them to be very runheavy. Uh Clint Kubak has one of the lowest pass rate over expectations in inside the 10 yard line

4:19of any active play caller. So, it really is going to be like their red zone offense should just be Ashton Genty. Uh,

4:27and yeah, I I guess from there it really is just a question of how much do you believe in the team uh in Clint Kubak to

4:34elevate this offense? I believe in it quite a bit honestly. Uh, as you mentioned earlier, they're getting Colton Miller back on the offensive

4:42line. They added Tyler Linderbomb. The splits with those guys on and off the field for their respective teams uh over the past couple of years are up on the

4:50screen right now, but they are very positive. They do make an impact just having these offensive linemen healthy.

4:57Uh Genty led the NFL in yards after contact per attempt whenever he would get one or more yard before getting hit.

5:05So when he wasn't getting hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he had had just some of the best efficiency marks

5:10in the league. So, I think we can see the explosives come back for Ashton Genty this year. I I just really think

5:16that all of these factors are kind of perfectly coming together for a massive year two smash for Genty. I I'm happy to

5:23take him in round one. He's a player I'm going to have ranked well above consensus. His ADP is kind of like at

5:29the one two turn across most sites. I'm going to be well ahead of that. Yeah, it's there's kind of the spread, right?

5:35Like on FFPC and underdog where we've got real money being drafted, he's going like basically ahead of James Cook. it's like a coin flip between those two, but

5:42then on Sleeper and at some other leagues like he's going like, you know, 14 15 overall. So, he is right there on

5:47that cutoff. I'm with you that he is an S tier pick right at the one two turn.

5:52I'm with you that he has, you know, round one profile for sure and like that like everything screams round one profile. I think he's clearly going to

6:01improve this year, Ryan, but it is just like the magnitude of improvement of this offense by the Vegas implied win uh

6:07excuse me, not win totals, but implied points per game. Raiders are implied to improve by five points this year. That's one point better than the Titans, one

6:14and a half points better than the Saints. And it's easy it's easy to improve, Ryan, when you only score 14.2 points per game. Last year, they only

6:21scored two touchdowns per game. But I agree that between the the coaching staff in, you know, play caller changes, the coaching staff changes

6:29year-over-year, man, like not having to deal with Chip Kelly and just a completely incompetent offense like it was last season. Um, I I learned a huge

6:37lesson with Jansy last year, just like going into this season, just kind of applying this analysis into Genty for this year. I learned a huge lesson just

6:44like we do this every year with super talented running backs. Their offensive environment is like it's like the main thing that we should really be focusing

6:52on. And the Raiders, you know, they've got to get they've got a long way to get out of the basement, Ryan. And I think

6:56that's like my next question to you is like, okay, this is the fifth worst offense in the NFL even with the

7:02improvements that I just talked about.

7:04Uh, is there upside for this team to even get into like, you know, just league average? Because if they're if they're a league average offense, Ryan,

7:10like they're Genti is gonna significantly outperform his ADP most likely.

7:18Hey, Ryan, you're muted.

7:20>> Absolutely brutal. Unprofessional. Can't believe I'm doing that to you.

7:24>> You pulled the Scott Barrett on me. The Scott Barrett on a Monday morning.

7:28>> It's all good, man. It's all good. Don't sweat it.

7:31>> Yeah. Embarrassing. But moving past that, uh, yeah, I think there's a great chance the Raiders are just league average, uh, in terms of offensive

7:39efficiency this year. Uh, producer Trey might have the tweet, uh, backstage that he can get up on screen, but that's pretty much what we've seen from every

7:47single Clint Kubak offense that he has called over the last handful of years.

7:52uh preseason everybody's always down on the personnel on the offensive line and pretty much without fail he gets at least like a league average EPA per play

8:03out of his offenses as long as like his starting quarterback is healthy right uh yeah up here on the screen ninth in EPA

8:10per play in Derek Carr's starts for the 2024 Saints with not a great roster top to bottom right uh same with the

8:17Seahawks everybody was so concerned about their offensive line last year bottom per every industry source end up uh being 15th in EPA per play in the

8:27regular season. Of course, they go win the Super Bowl. Uh and even the Vikings in 2021, he got up to around a league

8:34average EPA per play offense uh with not great personnel, at least from what was perceived preseason. So yeah, I am pretty optimistic just in the Raiders

8:45ability to overperform uh kind of what the median expectation is for them in the Vegas betting markets right now. And yeah, as you mentioned, just like the

8:55the spread between what they actually did last year and like the very low, very conservative Vegas implied point per game total this year, that to me

9:04says a lot. It it's like I I don't want to conflate the Raiders being comp like so beyond bad last year with them just

9:14being as a base expectation this year kind of like normal bad or like normal not great offense like that there's just

9:21so much more meat on the bone there for a running back even if they aren't uh getting into like the top half of the

9:28league in offensive efficiency right so I I just think there's either way there's going to be a big step forward It's just the magnitude of that step

9:36forward that will determine whether Genty is kind of like a mid-range to low-end RB1 like roughly meeting ADP versus if it is like a big step forward.

9:47I think just top three running back is what we're talking about.

9:50>> Yeah. If last year's the floor man, he was like RB14 and fantasy points per game. The floor is already really high.

9:55This is something I talked to Scott about a couple weeks ago. It's like in terms of back end of the first round

10:00picks like Ashen Genty versus Justin Jefferson, who has the higher floor?

10:04It's like very clearly me to me Jensy because I mean like it it cannot get possibly any worse as you as you noted

10:11like you know Kubak's always been a pretty good play caller. He's always had like pretty bad quarterback play.

10:17There's a decent chance that Fernando Mendoza and Kurt Cousins is by far the best quarterback, you know, in terms of just like, you know, raw ability, raw

10:25talent that he's had as a play caller.

10:27You know, no disrespect at all to Sam Darnold and what he put together last season. Darnold was legitimately, you know, excellent in that playoff run. But

10:35Mendoza, you look at over the last basically the last 35 years of college football, Mendoza in terms of adjusted yards per pass attempt, he he put

10:43together a top 25 season and adjusted yards per pass attempt. And it's basically just a bunch of first round quarterbacks that we love in fantasy

10:50football on this list. Like, you know, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, uh Mayfield did it twice, Robert Griffin the third did it a few times, CJ Strad did it

10:57twice, uh Jameus Winston did it. So, it's it's a lot of first round hits on that list in terms of efficiency. And I

11:04know it's just a one season sample size with Mendoza. It would have been great to see him do it multiple times, but

11:08even to have that level of efficiency in one season, uh, it's it's super bullish for Jensy. And then the floor, like, you

11:14know, Kurt Cousins is, you know, probably a shell of himself at this point. He can't really move like he used to be able to, but I'm with you. I think

11:22the quarterback play here is a lot better. Uh it seems like Ryan uh the Genty is is going to be the only player

11:28that makes our S tier here in this round two. Chase Brown is the A tier player that we should talk through next. He has

11:37been awesome for fantasy for basically the last two years because the role has been incredible. He started last season slow. It kind of took a little bit of

11:47like a Joe Flacco resurgence to kind of bring this offense back to just semblance of like usable weeks- because uh no no disrespect but Jake Browning

11:58was awful last season. He was he was truly one of the worst quarterbacks in football. Uh they put replace him. Joe

12:04Joe Flacco plays pretty well. Dude, I think with like with this Ryan with with Chase Brown, it's just crossing your fingers that Joe Fla or excuse me, Joe

12:12Burrow stays healthy. [snorts] Um, you know, Brown basically has a fullblown Bellcow workload ahead of him. It's not just that, you know, okay, he's got the

12:22entire early down workload in his favor.

12:25It's just Sam P. Ryan siphoning off a few third down snaps here and there. He should be a full-blown Bellcow again

12:32this season, Ryan. And the Bengals are like right behind the Rams this season in terms of implied points per game.

12:38This is going to be one of the highest scoring offenses in football. The floor feels really really good with Chase Brown. I I'll ask you how high do you

12:46think the ceiling is? Because to me, like Brown is a really, really good floor pick in the second round. Like it,

12:51as long as Burough stays healthy, I feel really good about him finishing like top 12, top eight in fantasy points per

12:57game. How high can the ceiling get? I think that's my question with him. Yeah, I think you're underestimating the ceiling. I'll get to why, but first I

13:06want to make uh like a bone to pick type of comparison here because I'm glad you brought up the Rams. I I want to say

13:14there is a thing happening in the fantasy industry that I like to call Kairen Williams derangement syndrome.

13:18And we're not talking about Kairen Williams on our list today, but I think this comparison is really important to understand. Uh Kairen Williams, while he

13:27is still the Rams nominal starter, did have Blake Cororm meaningfully cutting into his workload last year. Uh it they were closer to like 6040 by carries.

13:39Kairen was still favored at the goal line and in the passing game, but just the overall workload was not super great. The passing role pretty much went

13:46away. Uh, even with the Rams being the best offense in the league, Kairen Williams still just the RB11 even with all the goal line work in that offense.

13:54I I think that is when people say, "Oh, he has a good workload for fantasy or whatever, but he's not a good or

14:01explosive enough player to have more upside than that." I think that's true of Kairen Williams. I think people that say that about Chase Brown are just dead

14:09wrong. I think these are very, very different players and very different uh like fantasy football evaluations. I I don't think the the just the idea that

14:19Chase Brown is not good enough to be selected in round two around the running backs that he's selected around does not

14:26ring true to me as it does with a Kiran Williams for example. So my evidence there is going to be if we just look at

14:35these games and producer Trey can get these splits up on the screen uh games that he's been loaded up with 20 or more

14:42carries Chase Brown has. There have been six of these games over the last two years where just the entire backfield is

14:48dead. He's playing this like Christian McAffrey light role. 90 plus% of the snaps, 20 plus carries per game. Yeah, in those games he's not been an

14:56efficient runner. 3.75 yards per carry.

14:59Uh just RV 35 by uh percent of yards from explosive runs. That's not great.

15:06In all his other games, he's been a fringe top 12 running back by most efficiency stats. Uh yeah, easily RB10 by yards per carry there. RB13 by yards

15:16from explosives. He is an explosive player if if exactly he's not being given a Christian McCaffrey level 90 plus% snap workload. And guess what?

15:27Christian McAffrey isn't even an explosive player when he's getting that workload. McAffrey has not been an efficient runner the last handful of

15:34seasons in the NFL. So, I just think it's an absurd uh kind of standard that Chase Brown is held to because this guy

15:42averages he averaged 21 fantasy points per game last year in games that Joe Burrow started and finished. Uh in those inefficient games where he was in the

15:51CMC light workload, 21.3 fantasy points per game on 22 expected. So, yeah, a little inefficient but a top two running back workload, right? Uh, and in his

16:03eight other games that where he wasn't loaded up with 90% of the snaps, but Joe Burrow started and finished them since

16:09week 9 of 2024, 20.1 fantasy points per game on about 17 expected fantasy points per game. Kind of no matter which road

16:17you pick, whether it's he's going to have the CMC workload where he's a bit inefficient on it or he's just going to

16:24have like a normal top five running back workload and in which case he will be efficient on it. He just averages 20

16:31fantasy points per game, no matter what.

16:33Like he's a high-end RB1 by fantasy points per game, no matter which path you pick as long as Joe Burrow's healthy. And that that's like the caveat

16:41obviously, but that applies to literally every running back in round two. They need they need and want their quarterback to stay healthy. Uh and and

16:50arguably, it's even less important for Chase Brown because yeah, now Joe Flacco is the backup. We saw the Bengals offense be a lot closer to normal uh in

16:59Flaco's games, at least for fantasy, bringing the drop back volume there. Uh Chase Brown top five in route participation rate uh and targets per

17:07game, over five targets per game last year. Went on a totally insane heater at the end of the season. He became the

17:14third most common running back on ESPN championship winning rosters. Like he's just an amazing fantasy asset to me. He gets the goal line work. He gets the

17:23passing down role. He has has had better volume than most of the running backs he's getting drafted around. Uh, and yeah, just scores better than most of

17:31the running backs he's been drafted around when his starting QB is healthy.

17:34So, to me, he's like very solid A tier.

17:37I think it's ridiculous that he goes as late as the two three turn on a lot of these sites like ESPN and Sleeper as we

17:45kind of turn the page into reddraft season. That's like going to be one of my biggest targets there at the end of

17:51round two. And yeah, I I would take him as soon as early round two. I I do think that he's the second best back on this

17:58list.

17:59>> Uh the in terms of workload, I agree. Uh I think the only push back I have is in terms of the ceiling is over the last

18:06two seasons when they've had Burrow, they have just gone like god mode in terms of their pass rate inside the 10

18:13yardd line. They were the second most pass heavy team in terms of pass rate over expectation and 24 inside the 10.

18:18And then last year, even without, you know, Burrow for half the season, they were the fifth most pass heavy team in

18:23the league. So, it's like, I mean, the role is incredible for Chase Brown. I'm I'm absolutely with you on that. I do

18:30think in terms of his touchdown upside, he might be just a little capped because Burrow when he's on the field, Ben, like

18:37he's he's going to be pushing for 40 touchdowns this year. This also speaks to T. Higgins being completely mispriced in the third round. He's been a dude,

18:44he's been like a top six fantasy wide receiver whenever Joe Burrow has been healthy. I I I think that's really kind

18:50of the stat I'm kind of getting at here.

18:52But bro, the the floor for Brown is incredible. A little bit like Jensy, too. There's a huge spread on Brown's ADP based on I think in terms of his,

19:00you know, in terms of the sharp ADP, the sharper ADP over on in any baseball format, FFPC, NFC, he's going 1516

19:08overall on Sleeper and ESPN. Like Ryan noted, he's going closer to like that two, three turn, which is just insane.

19:14That's stealing. Imagine starting your draft with Bejian Robinson and or Jir Gibbs and then coming back and getting Chase Brown in the second or third

19:21round. Uh I haven't been able to do that cuz I haven't played on Sleeper or ESPN or done any home league stuff at all

19:27this uh this summer just yet. But if that sticks, uh Chase Brown is going to be one of the the biggest players that

19:32we're we're like highest on here at Fantasy Points. [snorts] Uh, I I think Brown is also kind of like an underrated

19:38hero running back candidate, uh, Ryan.

19:40Like, uh, I I like the idea of taking Aman Ross, St. Brown, or, you know, I know you're a little lower on JSN. I

19:46prefer St. Brown, but if you're picking right there in the middle of the first round, after the top two running backs

19:51go after Puka, after Chase, you can come back and get Chase Browner really, really good in the middle of the second

19:56round about your RB1. Okay, maybe he doesn't have like top two fantasy upside unless somebody gets hurt, but the floor is amazing. That is for sure. The other

20:06a tier running back we need to talk through is my guy Omari in Hampton. This is definitely more of a projection,

20:12right? Like we've seen Chase Brown produce top 12 numbers. And even kind of to Ashen Genty, at least we've seen him

20:17put together a full season. But when Omar and Hampton was healthy last season, Ryan, he was incredible to start the season. He was, you know, top seven,

20:25top eight in terms of snap rate. They basically gave him the full backfield right out of the start of the year.

20:30Obviously, this with the asterric that not, you know, Naji Harris didn't practice and they didn't have Mitchell last season, but I mean, the the role

20:38was incredible for Hampton. He averaged more fantasy points per game than Ashton Genty did in did in his rookie season.

20:44And I talked to Rich Rebar last week on Thursday. Once you're done listening to this podcast, go back and listen to the

20:49show with Rich, but he made a great point. It's like a lot of the the things that we're but we're like seeing with

20:55Genty. You can kind of directly parallel with Hampton except that you know the Chargers are probably going to be a much

21:01better offense this season. I'm just with you that Hampton is an A tier pick in the second round. I might have had

21:07him even higher as more of an S tier pick. I think I prefer him to Jy. It's just that the offensive line should be

21:14significantly better. We've got a great play caller uh you know year-over-year change uh with the Chargers as well. But I I just trust Justin Herbert and I

21:22trust this offense a little bit more than I do with the Raiders. Uh in terms of projection, the Chargers are right in

21:27the middle of the pack. The by the Vegas implied points per game totals. They're right there at 14th. [snorts] Uh they're

21:34not, you know, in terms of like improvement, definitely not as improved as the Raiders were going to be over year-over-year, but that's because this

21:40offense was pretty good. Uh I think, man, I'm just all in on Hampton. I think he fits any type of team build, whether

21:47you go RB RB to start your draft in rounds one and two or if you start with a receiver in the in the first round. I

21:54think Hampton also fits kind of a hu running back style build in that format.

21:59>> Yeah, I mean, you make a good point that yeah, just generally I think the round two running backs are so strong that if

22:05you do want to do a hero running back approach with one of those top wide receivers, yeah, it is a little bit more

22:11comfortable to kind of go in that direction. uh just with a Brown, with a Hampton. Uh it sounds like I'm not quite

22:18as high on Hampton as you are. Uh but that that was a great argument that you just made comparing him to Genty with

22:24the offenses. But what I had on Hampton just from a positive lens is I kind of don't buy the idea uh that that's kind

22:33of been around in the industry this summer that Hampton is like not a good scheme fit for Mike McDaniel or that he

22:40is in big danger of being in a committee with a Katon Mitchell or with a Kimmani Vidal. Uh Hampton was one of the best

22:49runners last year on carries to the outside. So to the C and D gap. We have it up on the screen here. Third in yards

22:57per carry, 5.94 yards per carry. Uh, right behind Devon Achan, by the way, who was up at 6 yards per carry. So,

23:04that to me is one area where it's pretty easy to like cut and paste. Okay, this is a place where Omar and Hampton can be

23:12efficient and be awesome in a Mike McDaniel backfield. Uh, McDaniel overall has the sixth most valuable backfield of any play caller since 2021. Uh it was

23:23only a few years ago that he had two top five running backs by fantasy points per game in the same backfield in the same

23:28year. Uh Raheem Moster, Devon Han, both over 17 fantasy points per game in Han's rookie season. As you mentioned, I think

23:36we have seen glimpses of the kind of every down super fantasy friendly bellcow role. Uh Hampton had four games above a 75% snapshare. That is more than

23:47Jir Gibbs. That is more than James Cook.

23:49that is more than Chase Brown. Even last year, uh they when Hampton was fully healthy, uh he was just being used as a

23:57total everyown, bellcow, workhorse, like every [laughter] any adjective you want to put on that. Uh he was great. Really, it was only the 3 weeks after he came

24:07back from his ankle injury, uh where he was super limited in week 14. weeks 15 and 16 he was yeah in a little more of a

24:17committee but he still out touched Kimmani Vidal 34 to 18 in those two weeks in week 17 with Vidal out he comes

24:24and plays 80% of the snaps and scores close to 20 fantasy points like I I don't really see a reason why people are

24:32like so scared of Hampton or think that he is not just the odds on favorite to be the every down bellcow in this

24:39Chargers offense just the more I've like looked into all of the con arguments for Hampton, the less convinced I kind of

24:45have been by them. I do think it really is as simple as this is an amazing offense. This is a coach that's had an

24:52amazing backfield for fantasy uh the entire time he's been in the league.

24:57Whether it's been uh with Devon Chans or with total UDFA nobody's, I just think there's a very good chance that this

25:05works out very well and that Hampton's a top three running back. I just kind of think it's that simple.

25:10>> Yeah, I'm just not overthinking it with Hampton, too. And I know you're a little excited about Keaton Mitchell and maybe

25:15he's like a low, you know, low-end flex play, you know, maybe high-end RB3 in fantasy this season, but this is still a

25:21player who has basically never had any semblance of volume in his career. He has one game with more than 10 carries

25:28in his career. And obviously, you know, you put asterisks on that as well. I mean, it's it's he's dealt with a really

25:33bad ACL injury two years ago. But I just think there's nothing stopping Hampton from having really strong volume this year. and then he can have big spike

25:42deficiency because we trust the play caller so much. We trust McDaniel and what he's going to be able to bring to

25:48this offense. And also like he didn't play with Joe Walt or Sean Slater at all last season. Slater got hurt uh I think

25:54one of the first practices in training camp last year in late July, early August. And then obviously Joe Walt was in and out of the lineup and then ended

26:00up missing the entirety of the year. And you mentioned the injury. I think that's kind of gone under, you know, under

26:06reportported a little bit. The guy fractured his freaking ankle, Ryan, in the middle of the year and he came back.

26:10Didn't need surgery. Like he took two months off, but he came back. Like this is an injury that usually like ends

26:17players seasons, you know, or requires surgery and he ended up coming back. And yeah, it's not not a surprise to me that

26:22he didn't have the same role. It's not a surprise to me that he was not the same player. Omar Hansen, you know, I think

26:28the only thing that I can really think of in terms of like his talent profile is like he's not the most elusive like

26:33in terms of his like make you miss ability. He's he's definitely more of a bruising running back. Relies more on the power and the speed. And you could

26:40say, okay, maybe he's not like the perfect fit for a zone scheme because he doesn't have that like one cut ability,

26:45but there's going to be plenty of ways that McDaniel finds, you know, finds a way to get him the ball and finds a way

26:50to get him the ball in space within the scheme. And this offense, man, I I I've gone back and forth with this. Like I I

26:58very much trust, you know, our projections here at Fantasy Points. Very much trust like what the implied team totals are saying. I I think this

27:05offense has a chance to be top five this season. Even though like, you know, none of the projections are really telling us

27:10this, but I think in terms of what we saw from Herbert last season and just what we can, you know, kind of project

27:16out with this offensive line, there's certainly like top five offense upside within the range of outcomes here within a way that I don't know if there is with

27:26Ashen Genty. Just to kind of bring it back to that full circle, like I don't I don't know if I see top five upside with

27:31the Raiders offense, Ryan, this season.

27:35I think I do personally. I I think you can get close enough if they're just league average and Genty kind of makes

27:42up for it on pure workload, but I I see like the case that you're building here and I'm I'm not sure I totally disagree.

27:48I might I might have to give this even more thought. Damn, maybe Hampton will just end up being ranked in the first

27:53round for me. That you're making some really good points here, Graham. So, I will I will say like if I were to look

28:00at the Vegas implied total projections and just say, "All right, which are like the two or three teams that I just most

28:07disagree with here, like that are average that I think should be higher or what have you." Yeah, the Chargers would be number one. The Jaguars would

28:14probably be number two. And just in terms of teams I think that Vegas is kind of sleeping on in terms of overall

28:21offensive output or may maybe at least upside if everything goes right to phrase it a [snorts] little more charitably to Vegas. Uh but that that's

28:29yeah, that's where I'm at. I would say like th those two teams are the ones that I'm most willing to go out on a

28:34limb kind of against just the Vegas implied totals and say these are offenses where if everything clicks together there's like pretty good

28:42evidence that this could just be top five. Yeah. And and every year we we do this, right? Like there is a lot of

28:48directional accuracy with the implied team totals, but every year there's going to be a couple teams that do pop.

28:53And I'm definitely with you on the Jags being one of those teams that pops.

28:57Before we get into the B tier, Ryan, we need to shout out our commenters of the month. We have a super chat commenter of

29:04the month in Bee Fred. Beef Fred is always dropping his super chats usually once a week, maybe once every two weeks.

29:10Want to give him a shout out. And our regular commenter of the month is Jordan. You guys have been awesome. The

29:15chat has been awesome every single morning coming here doing the the live shows. You guys have been super great and interactive. It is always always

29:22great to hear from you guys. Uh so shout out to Beef Fred. Shout out to Jordan for the commenters of the month. If you

29:28want to be included in the commenter of the month discussion, leave comments down below. We'll get to them as we get

29:35throughout the show. If you disagree with any of the analysis that Ryan and I are bringing, please leave a comment after as well on YouTube. We'd love to

29:41hear from you guys. And we will pick out another commentator of the month. We're going to send you guys some swag uh I

29:47think after the show. Ryan, let's get into the Btier man. Uh, this is, I think, one of the best second round

29:54running back groups that we've had in quite some time. And I I'd argue that some of these players we're going to

30:00talk in this B tier maybe should be in the A tier. Derrick Henry has just been a cyborg for fantasy football his entire

30:08career. Every year you you hate on the guy or you [laughter] you think he's going to fall off and he just doesn't.

30:13He just keeps on going. He keeps on beasting. Last year, man, he ended the season uh on another tear. It was

30:21another another season where Derrick Henry ended the year just absolutely owning souls, owning everybody that faded him. And it was on an offense that

30:28was really struggling. I mean, this Ravens offense after Lamar Jackson came back was really struggling. Ravens fans were just clamoring to get Derek the

30:36ball more. He closed out the season with 85 carries, 570 yards, and six touchdowns in his final four games. Just absolutely destroying people. Uh he was,

30:45you know, once again one of the players that you needed in baseball, especially after he had the four touchdown game against the Packers in week 17. Uh man,

30:53I mean, Henry, like I I just don't I again, I don't want to overthink it.

30:57Like players that are going to be in the Hall of Fame, like I I just don't really want to fade them until it's very clear

31:02that they're falling off. And with Henry, okay, yeah, the yards after contact has fallen a little. The mist tackle force has fallen a little bit per

31:10like it's all f it's it's come down a little bit but there's nothing here Ryan that points to a player that's falling

31:15off the cliff. Yeah, absolutely nothing points to Henry being in any sort of efficiency decline. I I brought so many stats for this that producer Trey can

31:26get up on the screen. Uh but since World War II, Henry leads all 30 plus year old running backs in yards per carry. uh

31:37pretty easily. Uh so that that's a list that producer Trey will get up at some point here. Uh since he joined the

31:44Ravens, Henry only trails Jir Gibbs in fantasy points over expectations. So that's overperforming your volume.

31:52Fantasy points per game minus act or minus expected fantasy points per game.

31:57Outperforming your workload only trails Gibbs since joining the Ravens plus 4.6.

32:02That doesn't sound like a guy that's watched to me. Uh yeah, ev four out of the last five seasons, he's been over

32:09two fantasy points over expectation. Uh that's ahead of every superstar running back. Uh nobody else has more than two seasons uh where they have done that

32:18over that span. Uh 9% explosive run rate in Lamar Jackson starts last year. That ranks second behind only Devon Achan.

32:26Uh, of course it came way down with Lamar not on the field, but if like you can't be drafting Derrick Henry and be

32:34worried about what happens if Lamar Jackson is injured. Like that's the you don't want to draft as if you're wrong and as if injuries are going to hurt

32:42your team is because again we just made this argument about Chase Brown and we it's every single running back is dependent on their starting quarterback

32:50to a much larger extent than normally gets reported or talked about. So, I I that's like that part is not concerning

32:58to me. I'm focused on he's the most explosive running back in the league with Lamar. Uh and yeah, there's just there is no stat you can point to that

33:06says Derrick Henry is not insanely explosive, at least when Lamar Jackson's on the field. So, I don't know, man. The two best age 32 fantasy seasons ever are

33:17Walter Payton with 20 fantasy points per game and Priest Holmes with 18.3 fantasy points per game. Uh before his career got like almost ended by a helmetto

33:29helmet spinal injury which is insane by the way reading about that the early 2000s football sounds like a totally different world that I was like not

33:37conscious enough to experience as a small child but damn. Uh, so I like if those guys could be high-end fantasy RB1s in those times, Dererick Henry can

33:48freaking do it now. Like come on. Over over five and a half yards per carry since he turned 30 is just insane. I I

33:55am the age curves guy. I'm done applying the age curve to Derrick Henry. It would be it would be hilarious if this were

34:02were the year he fell off. This would have been the year I was right to fade him every single year. But I'm not

34:07fading him this year. I can't do it. uh he's been a league winner in three separate seasons since 2019 despite never going over 2.1 receptions in any

34:16of those years. It just kind of hasn't mattered. And I think there's an outside shot. Maybe you can talk me into or out

34:23of this whether that this is like beat rider summer gobbledygook, but I think there's an outside shot Henry catches like a few more screens this year than

34:32we've been used to. Uh all the reports through the summer were that there are a lot more uh just running back screens in

34:39the offense. Of course, that can just be they're doing installs in the summer.

34:42Maybe that will or won't actually be part of the offense, but Henry is fourth in yards per out run among all running

34:48backs since 2021. I believe he leads all running backs in yards per target. Like the guy is efficient at picking up yards

34:54when they throw passes to him. I I I understand the like the reasons why he hasn't had as many over his career, but

35:02if a coach like a Declan Doyle came in and wanted to use Henry in the screen game, I imagine it would be fairly

35:10successful to throw a few design targets per game to him. Uh this is Declan Doyle coming from uh the coming from coaching

35:17under Ben Johnson and Shawn Payeyton, two guys that have absolutely maximized running backs in the screen game, in the receiving game, in their offenses. So, I

35:26think there's yeah, just an outside shot. He's more involved as a pass catcher. Even if he's not at all. The Ravens have one of the highest win

35:34totals in the NFL. He should be seeing constant positive game script so long as we don't get another slew of injuries in

35:42Baltimore. Like, I I'm just pretty optimistic on Henry. He's He's only Btier rather than A tier for me just because of that like pass catching

35:52question. Like if you told me, "Yeah, Henry's gonna catch 35 balls this year," I'd be like, "Okay, yeah, A tier, easy.

35:59Let's do it." Um, but yeah, I don't know. Maybe you can talk me higher or lower on him. But that's where I'm at on

36:05Henry. I'm I'm just I'm not fading.

36:07Btier is Btier in this group of players is a player I like and a player I want to draft. So all time the all-time

36:13leaders in yards per carry among players that have 500 or more rushing attempts, it's Devon Achan at 5.6 and Bo Jackson.

36:22and Bo Freaking Jackson at 5.4. Ryan, with Lamar Jackson, Dererick Henry is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He's been the most efficient running back in NFL

36:31history with Lamar Jackson on the field.

36:34And obviously Henry, he's had plenty of seasons where he's, you know, he's had like massive massive yards per carry numbers. going to the Ravens, getting

36:42the spike deficiency, playing with Lamar Jackson and everything that Lamar, you know, defenses have to kind of account for with Lamar in terms of just what he

36:49brings in the zone read game and kind of having to, you know, put a defender on him in the run game and obvious run

36:54situations. It has really helped spike Henry's efficiency. I think the only thing I can come back to is like maybe the offensive line takes a step back,

37:01especially with no Tyler Linderbomb.

37:03They've got some, you know, kind of changing pieces. But to, you know, just to add to your point, that was my exact

37:08thought when they brought in Declan Doyle. It's like Shawn Peyton has always been a talent maximizer in his run, you know, for his running backs in

37:14particular. And it's kind of it's kind of been like regardless of who he's had too. I mean, he's obviously had some

37:20insane talents like Alvin Kamar, but he's also had guys like Javvante Williams who are not particularly great pass catchers who have had really good,

37:27you know, roles in terms of their pass game. You know, catching 47, 50 balls. I don't think Derk Henry is is in that

37:33that kind of range where he's going to catch 45 or 50 balls. But like you said, we get him up to like 30 receptions, 35

37:38receptions, especially in PPR leagues.

37:41Now, we're talking about a player who I think has like like darkhorse the RB1 potential. And I know that's crazy crazy

37:48to say at his age. Ryan is just in the background. If you're not listening to us on YouTube or watching us on YouTube,

37:54Ryan basically just took an entire sheet of paper and ripped up his age curve. if you're listening to the podcast when it

37:59comes to Derrick Henry. Uh I I think we just got to do this every year, at least for this year with Henry. Rip up the age

38:05curve. And the thing is the price, man, it's it's just right. Like I kind of figured he'd be a one-two turn pick, but

38:12uh you look down the board, man. I in the middle of the second round in uh most best baseball formats in FFPC. He's

38:19going at 23 overall. And in Sleeper, he's a 23 turn pick. He's going 24/ in terms of his ADP. He's RB13 over on

38:27Sleeper, RB12 on FFPC. So on full PPR sites, you're already kind of getting a little bit of a discount here. And if

38:34Ryan's right, if we're right and we're saying, hey, like maybe he he does have like a little bit more pass catching

38:39upside just with the play caller change, then he is going to smash that ADP. I think he's an awesome pick. Uh, I again

38:46like I think Bejian Robinson, Jir Gibbs with Chase Brown or Derrick Henry where they're going in sleeper leagues right now is just I mean it's just like

38:55printing money. Ryan, one player I have really struggled with. Like this is the player I've struggled with the most in this tier is Ken Walker. I've always

39:02been very very high on Ken Walker's talent. It does feel like it's like okay they're he's going to the Chiefs. They

39:09didn't really add anything behind him.

39:11They didn't really add anything in particular. Most importantly, in terms of like a passcatching talent on in this backfield, this Chief's team is still

39:18right in the top 10 in terms of implied points per game. They're tied with the be the Bears for the 10th best team. Ken

39:24Walker is walking into a pretty decent role, right? Like Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco have combined to be like a solid

39:32RB2 if you just like cyborg their production. And now they're getting like a real player who can actually actually create some explosives. Kareem Hunt at

39:40the you know you know back nine of his career just wasn't really getting it done. Isaiah Pacheco coming back back from a really bad ankle injury just was

39:47a shell of himself last year. Ken Walker still clearly a Btier player. I I think to me the one the one caveat I have with

39:56with Walker is that pass down involvement that would push him into the A tier. Ryan, maybe you can kind of speak to that here. But Walker, you

40:04know, he's right there, man. 26, right in the middle of his AJ apex, joining a Patrick Mahomes led offense. Like, it

40:10kind of does feel like I'm overthinking it a little a little bit. We're just right there. Uh the other aspect here

40:15that I keep coming back to is like the Chiefs have been super super pass heavy.

40:19You know, uh this has been a very pass heavy team. Uh with Andy Reid, it really hasn't mattered who the running backs

40:24are. Like even if they have a decent one, they've been very pass heavy. Do we see that changing with Walker? Uh, do

40:30they lean a little more runheavy this season? All of these things would obviously help him this season in fantasy.

40:37I think they could shift a little more runheavy. And the only reason I say that is the Chiefs have effectively just been

40:44using these design screens for Rashi Rice as like an extension of their run game for the last couple years. Uh, Andy

40:52Reid just is easily at the top of the league in design targets per game.

40:55That's always been the case, but really, especially the last few years, just all of this short stuff to Rice has effectively been like their run outlet.

41:05Maybe I maybe either Ken Walker just gets some of those design targets. Uh, which we have actually seen with OC Eric

41:12Benemy has been pretty good for just running back targets and receiving usage. Uh, his last three NFL backfields had 100 or more running back targets. uh

41:22when he was the OC at UCLA in 2024, we had TJ Harden be one shy of the team lead in receptions with 40 receptions.

41:30Uh more than double that guy had in any other season of his college career. So like maybe there's some running back

41:37passing game utilization that Walker just kind of falls into uh because of that.

41:44Or I mean, alternatively, you can just say, "Hey, even if it's kind of Derrick Henryesque, maybe one or two targets per

41:51game." Maybe this is just going to be one of the more valuable offenses to have an early down roll in. We've seen

41:59that at least in stretches throughout the last couple years. Uh last year, Kareem Hunt was averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game uh without Isaiah

42:09Pacheco throwing out week 18. So that's like maybe the most washed player to step on a football field in all of last

42:16year was Kareem Hunt.

42:18>> Definitely was.

42:18>> Yeah.

42:19>> Yeah.

42:19>> Being like a borderline RB1. That that to me is like, oh, we put Ken Walker there that's led the NFL in missed

42:27tackles for since 2022, second in explosive run rate last year, leads the NFL in missed tackles for per attempt last year. Like maybe you put that

42:34player there and he's just a high-end RB1. I think that it could be as simple as that. Uh I think the goal line role

42:42could also be really strong. There was a stretch in 2024 uh from weeks 4 through 12 where Isaiah Pacheka was injured and

42:50again watched Kareem Hunt who I think they signed off the street that year was not with the team in week one. Signed

42:56him off the street from weeks 4 through 12. Averages 17 and a half expected fantasy points per game. Leads the NFL

43:02with 15 rush attempts inside the 5yd line over that span. just had the best goal line volume in the league. I think

43:10that is a possibility for Ken Walker on this offense with Mahomes. So there's just a lot of ways you can kind of paint

43:18a picture to say this could actually be a way more valuable kind of Chiefs running back role than we've been accustomed to as we've had all of these

43:27really kind of subpar uh talents in that spot the last handful of years and you just kind of swap Walker out and he

43:35performs above expectation and he's a mid-range to high-end RB1. Like I I kind of buy that. Uh and of course completely

43:43smashed last year through the playoffs.

43:4524.9 fantasy points per game on a 63% snap share. Uh close to 25 touches per game.

43:53The Seahawks loaded him up once Zack Charbanet was out for their playoff run.

43:58So it it's not as if we haven't seen Walker smash on a big workload. He did it in 2024 as well. He was utilized

44:06pretty heavily as a receiver. uh I believe was averaging over seven fantasy points per game just in the passing game in 2024. Of course, he only played 11

44:15games that got skilled back in 2025. I get that there are questions about can Walker actually hold up as an everyown

44:22bellcow for an entire season, but I I think you have to allow yourself to dream a little bit like that. This is

44:28one of the most explosive running backs in the league. There is nothing on the depth chart that really demands like, hey, we're I'm taking touches away from

44:37Ken Walker. Like, yeah, you could get Amari De Marcato in a pass pro role.

44:42Maybe he's the one kind of getting the two to three outlet targets per game on third downs. Like, I I can see that

44:48happening and Walker just being kind of a low-end RB1. Uh, but I I don't see anybody that's coming in here and and

44:55just like stealing work in a super meaningful way. like if he's good, he just could be the every down bellcow as

45:02long as he stays healthy. So that's where I'm at with Walker. I'm kind of like I really in my head I'm kind of uh

45:09just thinking about do I rank him or Dererick Henry higher. I think these guys are really really close and that's like a massive compliment to both of

45:15them. I'm going to have both of them ranked above consensus uh overall. So like relative to wide receivers and tight ends, I'm going to have both of

45:24them much higher. you would get both of them if you were drafting off my rankings. Uh but yeah, just ordinally, I'm still not sure which one I'm going

45:31to have higher, but I yeah, I kind of wanted or was hoping to talk through it to you or with you a little bit here,

45:36Graham. Yeah, I'm with I'm just with you that I prefer all of these running backs over the receivers. I I much prefer them

45:43over AJ Brown, Drake London, and I'm super high on Brock Bowers this year, but I structurally I just can't I can't

45:48get there. I can't I can't take Browers over Ken Walker or Bowowers over Derk Henry and certainly not any any of these

45:55S or A tier players. I just think from a structural standpoint, like specifically when it comes to Bowers, like we see

46:00this every year, late round tight end just smashes every single season. Uh basically, you know, a quarter of all the early round tight ends over the last

46:085 years have even, you know, produced a positive advance rate to the playoffs.

46:12It's just really, really hard for these early round tight ends to to really crush. And I'm saying this is like one

46:17of the biggest Brock Bower Bulls probably in fantasy football. I'm just with you. I think Walker and Henry, they both should be like no lower than 16 or

46:2617 overall. Uh I would have Chase Brown and Omar and Hansen over them for sure.

46:31I think the one thing I keep coming back with Walker is like, okay, yeah, maybe sure he's not like a full-blown Bellcow.

46:36Maybe it is a very similar role to Derrick Henry where he's getting like 55 to 60% of the snaps. You know, we saw

46:42this last year, Zack Charbanet just completely took all the goal line equity, but in the years past, you know, two even two years ago, that was

46:48flipped. Walker was getting most of the goal line stuff inside the five. And we've seen two seasons in 22 and 23

46:54where Walker was top 10 in terms of his uh, you know, snap rate inside the five, in terms of his attempts inside the

47:00five, team share of attempts inside the five. Like, we've seen him be a full-blown goal line, you know, Bellcow.

47:05So, it's like any of these concerns I have about maybe, okay, maybe he's not the world's best pass catcher, maybe the

47:11a lot of the design targets, like you were mentioning do still go to Rishi Rice. I don't know if that really

47:15matters to be honest because the goal line equity should be really good in this offense. Uh even though, you know, by expected touchdowns over the last two

47:22seasons, the Chiefs are perfectly average, 16th and expected touchdowns uh among the for the running backs, but Walker should get all of that. there's

47:31no one on this roster that is going to steal any sort of goal line equity from him. I think that's that's where I keep

47:37coming back to. It's like, yeah, okay.

47:40Yeah, he's not maybe the full-blown Bellcow maybe, but dude, the goal line and touchdown equity in this offense should be incredible.

47:49Yeah, this it kind of reminds me of like not to relitigate 20 the 2025 Seahawks backfield. Uh but I had the take that if

47:58literally all of Zack Charbanese and Kenneth Walker's touches were flipped where they were neck andneck by like total expected fantasy points per game

48:07for most of the season. But it really was Walker getting all the between the 20 stuff uh and Charban just getting all

48:14the high value targets uh stuff at the goal line. If that was just flipped, Walker had like the same amount of

48:20touches, close to the same amount of expected fantasy points per game, I think he would have been a top 12 running back, honestly, just because of

48:28the absurd efficiency that he can bring to like those high value touches. So, I I'm with you in that I do know the goal

48:35line stuff's going to be there. I'm I'm not concerned about that at all. It really just is a question of how

48:40runheavy do the Chiefs want to be inside the five yard line. Uh, and we've seen them kind of be at both extremes. So, I

48:48yeah, I I don't know. Just to like wrap it all up, there's I'm with you on that.

48:52I think the base case for Walker is just that he's a top 12 running back, but yeah, there are lots of different things

48:59like kind of things that could come in the design targets from Rice. Uh the goal line role, like all of these are

49:06like on top of that to me. like they're all just like kind of separate discreet arguments of like yeah he could get

49:12pushed up into the top six at the position or the top five uh by any of these things breaking his way and again

49:18all if he stays healthy but is is he really more injuryprone than like a Derk Henry it who's 30 plus years old like I

49:24I don't really think so I I think there's like a pretty similar level of injury risk for most of these running

49:31backs that we're talking about so I I don't want to like super overthink that or have that be the reason that I'm

49:36lower on Walker relative to anyone else.

49:39>> Yeah, in people players are injuryprone until they're not. You know, we do this every year. We try to predict injuries

49:44and it's just a fool's errand, right?

49:46Like Christian McCaffrey was super injuryprone until he played every game last year. You know, even in years past, I remember like way way back, Frank Gore

49:53was being called injuryrone from dealing with a number of injuries in college and then he came back and he was like one of

49:58the biggest like bastions of health every single year. Like we do this with running backs all the time and it I I

50:04just it infuriates me because I think you should be always just projecting, okay, every player plays 14 to 15 games and then what do they do on those 14 to

50:1315 games? We you're just like chasing your tail a little bit when it comes to injuries and I I just can't I can't get

50:18there with that analysis like at all.

50:20Like just that that immediately makes me want to tune out when when that happens.

50:24Uh with with Walker in particular, a lot of his injuries too, they've just been like random lower body injuries or just

50:30like uh you know, no major injuries.

50:32Like if if he was coming back from like a major knee injury or he had a knee injury in his past that like we could

50:37maybe point to, but he he doesn't like a lot of his injuries have just been completely random. Uh to round out the

50:43Ken Walker point, Patrick Mahomes a couple weeks ago called him one of the best football players that he's ever been around and he called him special.

50:51He said his versatility, not only as a runner, but as a pass catcher, something that has made that, you know, in terms

50:56of his eyes, makes him look special. Uh, if you if you need a more bullish note on Ken Walker [laughter] this season, I

51:02I don't I don't know what you're waiting around for. I think that right there tells you the full story from from

51:06Mahomes's mouth. Uh, I'm I'm not overthinking it with Walker. I think I I'm with you that I haven't fully decided if I want him or Derrick Henry

51:14higher. I think it is a very very similar play. Like you said, I I think I trust that Ravens offense with Lamar

51:20coming back fully healthy. Uh, you know, I think I trust that just a little bit more than Mahomes because let's let's

51:26not like forget the Chiefs have kind of been a not a not a bad offense by any means, but they've been a middling

51:31scoring offense for a number of years now. It's really been since they lost Tyreek Hill, this has not been a top

51:36three scoring offense. They've been like consistently >> 12th, 13th, 14th. Bro, we've seen the Ravens put together some absolutely crazy scoring efficiency in terms of

51:45like the Ravens have been top of the league at times when Lamar Jackson is healthy in terms of their scorings scoring rate per drive. So, I think

51:53that's the one thing that I would come back to with Henry versus Walker is just the quality of the offense and and

51:58whether or not you think Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson. I think that's the big thing. [snorts] Ryan, let's get into the C's here. A little bit of a

52:05controversial player. I think we might disagree on this one actually. We've agreed the entire show. You've got Saquon Barkley down here in the C tier.

52:11And I agree. I've agreed, like I said, I agree with pretty much everything we've talked about. I might have him still in

52:16that B tier because it's kind of a similar bet to Walker about the quality of the offense and like, yeah, we just

52:22have concerns about him like not catching a ton of passes. I think the one thing that I, you know, we can keep

52:27coming back to and point to with the Eagles, just the tush push, right? Like Jaylen Herz is [laughter] going to, it's

52:32the meme. It really is like a real life meme. like Barkley gets him inside the one or two yard line and then they just

52:38push Herz's ass into the end zone.

52:40That's that is a real thing that has definitely hurt Barkley in terms of his goal line efficiency. I went back and

52:46looked at this over his last two seasons. I mean, Barkley's had really strong volume inside the 10, but he's been one of the unluckiest players at

52:53scoring touchdowns inside the 10, and that really is just the push. Like, they get down to the one or two and uh it's

52:59just time, you know? But I I think we saw what the floor can be with this this offense last year and it was it was

53:05really bad. The p the passing offense was just completely incompetent. They missed Lane Johnson which really really hurt the run game. Now Lane's back for

53:12one more ride. I I think we've got a lot of changing factors, Ryan, that you can talk a little bit more about with this

53:19offense that that might really help Barkley.

53:22in particular, taking Jaylen Herz out of the shotgun and playing more under center will really, I think, help Barkley's efficiency. But there are

53:30still some concerns here, right? It's like it's Jayen Herz. He doesn't really dump off to his running backs. This Eagles offense is never really thrown to

53:36the running backs, and that really can kind of stagnate Barkclay's upside.

53:42Yeah. So, what I'll say from like a high level here is that there are three sort of things about the running back

53:48position that can lead to the amazing high-end fantasy RB1 seasons. Right there, you probably want at least two of these three things in your fantasy

53:57running back. You want the goal line work, right? The high like the highend goal line volume, the touchdown upside on the ground. You want the passing game

54:07work. In PPR leagues, uh, a target is worth two and a half times more than a run in terms of the amount of fantasy

54:15points it leads to, right? So, that's massively important. And then there's the explosive plays, right? The 10, 15 plus yard runs. Uh, running backs score

54:27like an inordinate amount of their fantasy points on the explosive plays where people often say, "Oh, well, if you take if you take out his 150 plus

54:36yard touchdown, he actually only would have scored uh 10 fantasy points in this game." And that's true, but that just underscores the importance of

54:44explosives, right? So, those are like the three kind of buckets I think about.

54:48I can see the explosives coming back for Barkley. In 2024, he had one of the most explosive seasons ever by a running

54:55back. That was kind of what led to his amazing fantasy performance was he was ju just had one of the best explosive

55:02run rates, explosive uh yard percentages of any running back we've seen recently.

55:08But again, that was with like a much younger and healthier version of this Eagles offensive line. I just don't know if the run game is quite that good. It's

55:19like an extremely high bar, right? So that's like a question mark to me, but I expect it to be better than last year at

55:25least. Right.

55:27The other But like there are just two massive issues as you kind of touched on. Yeah. With the goal line role, with

55:33the tush push with Jaylen Herz. I mean, their success rate on the tush push is skyhigh. It is much higher than handing

55:40the ball to Saquon Barkley. Like I don't I don't think that the Eagles would change what they're doing just because it really works when they give give the

55:48ball to Herz and let him just dive over the end zone, right? So I I don't see like the goal line upside being there

55:55for Barkley. And I also don't see Yeah.

55:57the receiving game upside being there for him. Uh no Eagles running back has ever been over the 10.7% target share that Barkley had last year in any of

56:07Herz's five years as the full-time starter. So, in my mind, he's kind of maxed out there, at least relative to what he did last year in the passing

56:17game. I I don't see any help coming from like the offensive scheme change with Shawn Manion. The Packers uh were never

56:24above average in running back targets in Manion's two seasons there. Josh Jacobs uh was averaging one point few 1.4 fewer targets per game uh with the Packers

56:36than over his previous three seasons with the Raiders. I don't see like the running back target maxing be being a thing here in this offense. So yeah, I'm

56:45just kind of left with I don't think Barkley is a bad pick in round two. I I see like I just Yeah, I see some upside.

56:53I see a pretty decent floor. I agree there's almost no way it's worse than last year when he was 14.6 fantasy

56:59points per game on 14.9 expected. But that's not like the type of pick I want to be making in round two. I I want the

57:06guy that can be a top three overall running back. We've made that argument for every single guy that we've talked about so far. I just don't see it with

57:15Barkley short of him just having a repeat of the insanely explosive 2024 season that I'm just not sure all the pieces are still really there that kind

57:25of came together to make that happen. uh or at least I'm very skeptical or I'm more skeptical of that upside case than

57:32I am of a a Chase Browns or an Omar and Hampton's. Right. So that that's why I have Barkley where he is. I I again I

57:41don't think he's like a horrendous pick.

57:43I just think I really like all these running backs and I have to have somebody uh down in the C tier and for

57:48me Barkley is just the one that made my heart sing the least.

57:52I I think we're we see this a lot of the same ways in terms of just like okay maybe the the pass down role and the the

57:59touchdown upside is not totally great there but it comes back to me I think the entire Barkley debate is like whether or not you think the Eagles

58:07offense takes a step forward compared to last year or whether or not they get back to close to 2024. Uh some stats

58:14here for you Ryan. When Lane Johnson has been on the field over the last two seasons, the Eagles have opened up 2.6

58:22yards before contact per attempt. When he's off the field, it drops all the way down to 1.9. It's the difference between

58:28the second and eighth best offense by yards before contact per attempt over the last two seasons. So, I I have pretty high confidence that this this

58:36run game is going to be able to create some lanes. I think with Kevin Pulo gone just getting like a competent play

58:41caller hopefully and Shawn Manion's going to help rise the tides. I hear all of your concerns and I share your concerns with the goal line role and the

58:48pass down upside. But this is an offense to me like it comes down to the quality of the offense. the offense quality like

58:56you can be kind of like ne the true goal line bellcow workload can be a little bit negated because the offense is

59:03scoring a ton of points and by the implied points per game totals man they're right behind the Chiefs right behind the Bears this is a top 12

59:10offense by implied points per game they're tied with the Patriots at 23.8 eight implied points per game. So, yeah.

59:16Okay, Barkley probably doesn't have like humongous humongous upside because the pass down role is is not great. Like Chase Brown could double up his

59:25receptions this year and these players go basically backtoback in ADP on most formats. I'm with you on that. Uh I think the quality offense really is like

59:34the big like driving factor whether or not Barkley pays off this ADP. And I'm personally just buying an Eagles bounceback. I'm personally buying that

59:43Lane Johnson comes back and and really helps the run game. I'm buying that the the play caller change should be, you

59:48know, significant. And I'm just buying that. I think Jaylen Herz is a freaking good quarterback. I I think he's gotten way too much hate. Uh Herz has. And I

59:55think we could see him kind of take that next step, you know, uh basically trying to like, you know, beat the current NFL

60:02meta, throwing over the middle more.

60:04Ryan, you've got some you've made some great points uh on this very show about Jaylen Herz and how when he has thrown

60:09over the middle, it's been pretty good.

60:10he just really hasn't done it in his career and he's going to be asked to do that more, especially if they go under

60:15center and run more play action. All of these things are going to help Barkley.

60:18So to me, I think he's clearly in that B tier. I think I'd have him right next to Derk Henry, right next to Ken Walker.

60:25They're very, very similar projections.

60:27All three of these players, the one big thing that Ryan and I have talked about holding them back is just their pass

60:31down involvement. That's really the biggest thing. Yeah, that's fair enough.

60:37Um I I am like a believer generally in the Eagles bouncing back this year. I just think in my mind it's more about

60:43the passing game and then any like I I expect them to get into like inside the five inside the 10 a lot more. But yeah,

60:50I guess I guess there's just something mentally there for me that that's like well Hertz is taking 60% plus of those

60:58inside the two attempts anyway. So, like if they get down there more often, how much is it actually helping Barkley is

61:05is just kind of where I struggle. Um, honestly, may maybe we need to open up like another tier cuz I I think you've

61:11convinced me that I should clearly value Barkley ahead of the next player that we're about to talk about. So, may maybe

61:17we just need like a Dtier or something.

61:20Uh, sorry, producer Trey, I'm trying to make you add tiers on the fly and everything here. Um, but yeah, we can,

61:26unless you have anything else on Barkley. Uh, why don't we move into our next player?

61:31>> Yeah, I I think that's right. I think that's right that we should have Barkley in the C tier ahead of Jeremiah Love.

61:37This is a player that, dude, in future years, I think he's going to be a top five fantasy running back. I just don't

61:42know if I see that this season. The Cardinals, they they bring in Jacobe Brassette. He's back. At least he's going to be practicing throughout

61:48training camp. He got 15 mil to stay with the team. This is a team that is at the bottom of the league in terms of

61:54implied points per game at 18.4 Ryan. Uh it's basically the Browns, the Jets, and the Cardinals circling the drain in terms of the projected points per game.

62:04Love also is going to have to deal with some significant backfield competition.

62:08And we can turn our nose up and be like, "Oh, they drafted him third overall."

62:11Like this is, you know, what are you thinking? There's they're clearly going to, you know, value him as like, you know, one of their foundational pieces.

62:17But I mean, Tyler Algier was the guy who was cucking Bejian Robinson at the goal line for all these years and and

62:23frustrating us in fantasy and really kind of, you know, not limiting the upside of Bejian because he had plenty of spiked weeks with Aljir on the field,

62:30but certainly holding him back a little bit in fantasy football. And we have the same concern, but on just a significantly worse offense here with

62:37the Cardinals. Uh there's there's like just real downside risk with this offense. And I this whole argument I'm building for love has nothing to do with

62:45him. And it's just, dude, it's the quality of the offense. Like, I learned this lesson painfully with Ashen Jensy last year with in terms of, you know,

62:53just how bad an offense really can drag down a player who has an amazing role.

62:58Uh, Ashen Jensy, if you had told me last year he's going to play 80% of the snaps, I would have been like, "Oh,

63:02dude, like he's a top 12 fantasy running back. Easy money." We have some concerns about Jeremiah Love even getting to that

63:08level of Bellcow workload. And then just, dude, the offense, man. Like, I I'm really struggling with Arizona. like really struggling. And this is a part of

63:16the reason that Trey McBride, by the way, has been pushed into the middle of the third round. Everybody's kind of seeing this the same way. A lot of sharp

63:23drafters are like, "Hey, this is this is a team that clearly isn't going to regress. The volume's going to come down." But we're kind of not applying

63:29that to Jeremiah Love. Like, he's a two, three turn pick and he's going he's going around a lot of the players that

63:34we're talking about today and he's being considered to be one of the best players in fantasy already. I I just I'm

63:40struggling with this one, man. I'm really struggling with love because it has nothing to do with him. I think he's incredible. I think the the workload

63:48eventually is going to be great for him, especially on passing downs. That's where a lot of his his upside is going

63:54to be accessed. But Ryan, talk to me, man. It's it's just this offense is a huge concern.

64:02It is a huge concern. Yeah. Just a four and a half win total. They have one of the most brutal early season schedules

64:09in the NFL that a lot of people have pointed out. Like there are just a lot of reasons to think that this offense

64:17just won't be that productive this year.

64:19It was so heavily the garbage time stuff last year. And then of course we get uh fantasy football terrorist Nathaniel Hackett who is on this Cardinal staff uh

64:29coming out this [snorts] weekend. Uh yeah, praising James Connor, praising the veteran running back, saying, "Yeah, Jeremiah Love, I mean, he's definitely a

64:37rookie." Uh, I will say when I saw this quote, because we get this every single year, like highly drafted rookie running

64:46back is running with the twos or coach is talking up the veteran in the backfield with him. This is extremely predictable. It happens to every single

64:54running back every single season. Uh, so I like there's a part of me that wants to rebel against this and and be like,

65:01"No, Jeremiah Love will h get a full workload by week four." Uh, that's what happened with the rookie Bruce Hall under uh Cardinals head coach Michael

65:10Flur. He was seeing 20 touches per game, a 66% snap share by week four as a rookie. He was totally smashing as an

65:17every bellcow despite them having Michael Carter there who had been productive the year before. Like Tyler Algier is not actually that making that

65:24much money against the cap. That's only like 2%. Uh that's less than Adrien Peterson got from the Saints back in the

65:31day. That's less than Kenny Gainwell just got. Like it there's not that much investment, right? Like and I believe all of those arguments. I do think that

65:38love will probably consolidate the touches in this backfield quicker than people expect. But yeah, my just my big issue is what is that actually worth on

65:48this Cardinals offense? like it could be worth in a best case scenario a ton of checkowns, a ton of negative game

65:56script. I think he's the best passing down back on the team pretty much just immediately. Like there's like a PPR scam kind of out to this uh that that is

66:08maybe interesting where he could pay off ADP certainly. Uh but yeah, I I just don't see the like amazing upside from

66:17this Cardinals offense. uh for a player that you have to draft anywhere in round two or close to the two three turn where

66:24love goes on a lot of sites. I I just really prefer kind of every other case we've made. Uh someone in the chat was

66:32asking like what what's actually the difference between the Raiders offense and the Cardinals offense? Like how are the Raiders a better situation uh than

66:41the Cardinals? I I just don't think it's really close. I I think uh Clint Kubiaak coming in is just a proven offensive

66:50mind that has constantly overperformed the personnel, constantly overperformed the preseason expectations for his offense. We just took through we went through some of the EPA per play numbers

67:01uh for the Derek Carr Saints for the Sam Darnold Seahawks at the top of this show. Uh that just isn't there with

67:08Michael for with him. We have uh high volume garbage time from Joe Flacco and Mike White with the Jets in 2022. Uh

67:16that was kind of encouraging, but no like history of efficient offense that he's actually the one calling. Like I'm not willing to go that much out on a

67:25limb against Vegas or against the implied Vegas totals. Sorry, not against Vegas, the football team. Uh yeah, against the implied points per game for

67:34the Cardinals. uh as I would be for the Raiders just because we know much more about the play caller. We have seen the

67:42offensive line upgrades. Like there's just way more things we can point to in terms of why will this get better than

67:49there are with the Cardinals. With the Cardinals, they yeah, they've invested in their offensive line. They've added guards in the draft and in free agency.

67:56Uh but it it's just the defense is still most likely going to be close to league worst. I don't think they're going to

68:03have any chance of really being this ground and pound offense with positive game script as they probably want to. I think there's a much bigger concern for

68:14Algier to vulture Love at the goal line deep into the season specifically and on an offense where the pie is already

68:21really small in terms of goal line touches. That is like a massive concern to me that Love doesn't have the touchdown upside that I think an Ashton

68:29Genty does that he immediately showed in his rookie year in terms of goal line usage. I know it will be him anytime the

68:35Raiders are getting to the goal line. I don't know that with love. That's like a massive difference to me. Uh yeah, I

68:42hopefully I've like elucidated my thoughts on like just why I don't see these situations as similar at all. Uh, if you want to make a comparison, I

68:51would just compare the Cardinals to the Raiders last year. I think that's maybe a little intellectually lazy, but there's like some truth to it that it it

68:58could easily be that bad in Arizona. And Love also just has much more competition in the back field than Genty ever did at

69:05any point in his rookie year.

69:07>> Yeah, we're not going to be slicing up Genty's carry share inside the 10. It's going to be all Genty where we could be

69:12with Jeremiah Love. And you know, you make a point, the Cardinals are probably going to be a bottom three defense this

69:18year unless the Raiders trade Max Crosby because Crosby really is truly one of the difference makers on defense in the NFL. Uh even though he's, you know, been

69:25dealing with injuries for a number of years now. Like unless they trade Max Crosby, this is the Raiders are not going to be like league worse. The

69:31Cardinals are in a three-year rebuild and their defense really has not gotten a whole lot better. And we see this every year and this is part of the

69:38reason I brought up Jensy compared to Jeremiah Love, like comparing their rookie seasons. I mean, the Raiders were pretty bad defense last year. Did not

69:45really get in a whole lot of game scripts. It really was like quality of the offense, you know, kind of really

69:49holding this team back. Uh, we need Jeremiah Love to be in good game scripts. Uh, getting, you know, getting the ball late in games on the ground,

69:56kind of salting the game away, getting, you know, grinding the clock, all of that. I'm not necessarily seeing a whole lot of that with the Cardinals. Uh we we

70:04mentioned this at the top too, but the Cardinals have the toughest strength of schedule by the Vegas win totals, and it's like by far the hardest strength of

70:11schedule. The entire NFC West has a very difficult schedule this year just because the Seahawks and the Rams went so deep. Uh and that, you know, that

70:18division is just so tough, [snorts] but the Cardinals by far have the, you know, most difficult strength of schedule this coming season. Uh I I just can't do it

70:26with with Jeremiah Love and especially on some sites like Sleeper looking at the ADP. Love is going ahead of Chase Brown. He's going ahead of Derrick

70:34Henry. I think that's absolutely wild.

70:36He's also going ahead of Nico Collins and Brock Bowers, which I think is that that's that's some bullishness that I don't know if I can get really behind

70:43there for Jeremiah Love. Uh, you know, Love to me is is going to be a first round fantasy pick at some point in the

70:49next couple of years. I think that's there's no real doubt about that. The Cardinals hopefully after this season get a real quarterback and and have, you

70:56know, a good team turnaround this coming season. Uh, but I I just can't invest this capital into Jeremiah Love where he's going with the two-3 turn. Ryan,

71:05this has been awesome, man. Ranking out the tiers of the second round running backs. Two players we did not talk about

71:11today on this list are James Cook and Devon Achan. Cook is just a first round pick. I think he should just be like

71:17solidly a first round pick. But let's talk through where we would have these players. Devon Achan projects incredibly well for us at Fantasy Points. And it's

71:26not because the offense is going to be good. It's not because we're super high on Malik Willis or anything like that.

71:30It's just the volume should be incredible for him. He's our RB5 in terms of projections. The target share is going to come down, I think, uh, with

71:39Noa, but we still have him ranked fourth among all running backs and receptions here at Fantasy Points in terms of our

71:45projections. I know you're with me on James Cook, just not overthinking it.

71:48He's a first round pick. Where we at with Devon Han? Yeah, I I should apologize. The only reason Devon Achan's not on the tier list as I totally spaced

71:57on him as a round two pick. He is going there on some sites now. Uh just throughout much of the summer he was at

72:03a one one two turn pick. I just didn't my brain didn't think to add him to the list. But yeah, interesting discussion.

72:09Uh I would have him in our B tier. I would have him with Derrick Henry and Ken Walker. I've been kind of the low

72:14man on Han here at Fantasy Points. I just see the loss of Mike McDaniel as maybe much bigger than other people do.

72:23I so much of Achin's explosiveness is based on he has had one of the highest rates of uh two plus yards before

72:33contact of any running back in the league. And that's even been over his entire career like with less than average offensive lines and personnel.

72:41McDaniel has still designed a run game that gives him yards before contact and that lets him just take off down the

72:47field and show that insane explosiveness and efficiency. I I love Achan. He is lit literally one of my favorite players in the NFL. I feel awful kind of being

72:56lower on him relative to consensus this year. I I just see much I just don't think it's likely that he's leading the

73:03NFL in yards per carry or that he's anywhere close. I don't know that he has a great handle on the goal line role.

73:10This is another offense that we expect to not be very good, not be inside the 10 yardd line very often where the once

73:18they do get there, the carries are getting split up at least between Han and Malik Willis uh potentially with Analy Gordon or anybody else uh that

73:27they bring in or get an annoying fascination with. Uh, I've put out all of the anti-Bobby Slowick play caller tweets that people can go check out, but

73:36basically he's like a bottom tier play caller to me where he is just constantly like running on second and long. Uh,

73:44just making sure that his team ends up in third and long essentially. Uh, preventing like efficient offense in any way other than Malik Willis having to

73:52scramble and run for his life on third and long, which again that means that Han's not catching the ball on those

73:58plays, right? So just the more I like game out this Dolphins offense, the less it like into a Devon Chan I get. I think

74:07he's a fine bet in to say Ryan if you like gun to your head pick out of any of these running backs who's the most

74:14likely to be top 12 in fantasy this year. I think Achan's like would be the top of that list for me. I just don't

74:21see where the top three running back upside comes from because that basically I think Achan was maxed out from a workload perspective last year with all

74:31of the design usage, all the creative stuff when he's not lining up even in the back field uh from from the slot or

74:37yeah, just from outside the back field.

74:39He leads the NFL in receiving fantasy points per game the last couple of seasons or all running backs, excuse me.

74:44So, I I just don't see like any of that still being there with McDaniel out of town. Maybe I'm being too mean to Bobby

74:50Sloic. Like he was with the team last year. It's not as if he's never seen HN get used in this way. Uh that all of

74:57that is like the most pessimistic possible interpretation of the arguments I just gave you. But I don't know. To to me, I would just rather have Ashton

75:04Genty. Uh I would rather have Chase Brown. I'd rather have Omar and Hampton for for sure. Han's just in the conversation with Henry and with Locker

75:12for me. But I I'm again I'm the low man.

75:15Our projections totally disagree with me. Chris Wet is a really smart guy.

75:19The role in the pass game to me is just so locked in that that's like you said the floor is so good. Uh you look at the

75:25last four seasons only Christian McAffrey, Alvin Chimera and Bejan Robinson have had a higher team uh team share of their targets uh than Achan.

75:34You know the the offensive quality is going to definitely take a step back.

75:37But we saw I mean this team last year was pretty bad Ryan and Achan was still a very very good fantasy asset. Uh I

75:43think I might be a little higher. I actually would have him in that S tier.

75:47I still think he projects extremely well. Um the goal line concerns really aren't there for me. I don't I don't think Olly Gordon or Jaylen Wright, any

75:55of these guys are are very good football players. So to me, like yeah, the Dolphins definitely are not going to be

76:00inside the 10 very often. But to me, I I think Achan should still be a one-two turn pick just based on he's got this

76:07massive massive role in the pass game that everybody's kind of projecting to take a step back. every everybody including us and we still have him

76:14fourth among all running backs and receptions. Uh I I think he's still a one-two turn pick. I I just the biggest

76:20concern to me is the quality of the offense and we have similar quality of offense concerns with Ashton Jensy. You know, it it really is like I'm with you

76:28on the Raiders. I think they do take a big step forward and I think the Raiders do outperform the Dolphins this year.

76:33I'm with you on that. I just think they're a significantly better team.

76:36Miami has the worst defense in football, man. Like they they [laughter] are going to be the worst defense in football. Uh

76:42it's not there's not going to be a lot of good game scripts for Ham, but he has that one out where it's like Christian

76:48McCaffrey is the lone player in fantasy football over the last couple years where like splits haven't really mattered in terms of like what the

76:55outcome of the game is. It hasn't matter if it's a win or a loss. Like he's going to get the ball in the pass game and

77:00Achan kind of has that similar out or the volume should be very very good in the pass game. Even though the Dolphins

77:05might only drop back like 25 or 30 times per game, Achain is still a player that I'm I'm willing to draft, especially at

77:12this kind of depressed price. Uh I I do agree that there's players that probably have a little more upside like Omar and

77:18Hampton probably has top three upside in the way that that you know, Han doesn't.

77:23I could make the same argument probably for Genty just cuz the role is going to be so freaking good for him. Uh but I'm

77:28still I'm still in on Han. The only concern I have is just the quality of this team. This team might be a total

77:34dumpster fire, bro. And like by week 15 or 16 when we're trying to win all the money in fantasy, uh, they might be just

77:40completely circling the drain, which is a huge concern. Ryan, this has been awesome, man. About an hour and a half ranking out the round tier running backs

77:49for fantasy this season. Lots of fantasy goodness in this one. Ryan, you've got anatomy. You have a league winner in your rankings coming out here soon. If

77:56you have not already subscribed to Fantasy Points, you're missing out, man.

78:00and you're missing out on all of Ryan's fantastic analysis. You can use code fantasy. Get yourself 10% off any plan to get all of our excellent projections

78:09and analysis from all of our analysts.

78:11Or the QR code is right there on the screen. You can scan that right now.

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78:16Again, use code fantasy. Save yourself 10%. Until the next video, we will see you guys at the top of the leaderboards.

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