0:00Yo, what is going on? It is fantasy football daily. We are back for another podcast and we have an awesome show
0:06lined up for you guys today. [music] We're talking through the hero running back strategy in fantasy football with my guys Joe Dolan and Tom Brawley. Joe
0:15is the managing editor here at Fantasy Points. Tom is our resident betting and fantasy expert. Three bros are back at it. We are back at it for another
0:23strategy pod. We did a zero running back podcast earlier this week. This kind of It'll kind of run in company with with
0:30this podcast. Uh today we're going to be talking hero running back strategy and what all of that entails.
0:36>> [music] >> I'll set us up here, gentlemen. The hero
0:47running back strategy in general, you're trying to find one hammer running back in rounds one or two, and then you spend the next two to
0:55three rounds taking basically every wide receiver you can possibly imagine. Just take a shotgun to the position and go after all the players that project good
1:05in that in that particular pocket. The The other way this works too is like you could also take one tight end or one
1:10quarterback in rounds two through five.
1:13You're basically just trying to leverage a high-end running back one who has the, you know, top five upside every single week with receivers that project
1:24extremely well in that pocket plus one onesie position. This works extremely well with Brock Bowers this year. We'll get into that in just a
1:31moment. I think in general the strategy works best with an anchor round one wide receiver. That is much harder to do this
1:37year, though, with the running back position getting pushed up into the second round.
1:41Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor are actually the best recent examples of hero running back strategy working best.
1:48Both those players were going in the second round over the last two seasons and both had extremely extremely high advance rates to the
1:56fantasy playoffs in week 15.
1:59This season it's a lot harder to do, guys. I think that that in general it's a lot harder to do. It's harder to pair
2:03Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua or Amon-Ra St. Brown with a stud RB1 in the second round just because their second round
2:10runners have gone nuts. In general too, the strategy does work better in PPR leagues. We talk about this all the time on the show.
2:18Like know your format. It's truly one of the biggest edges in fantasy football.
2:22There is a huge difference between half PPR and PPR scoring. PPR, you know, receivers just they they just bridge the gap closer to running backs. Over the
2:32last two seasons, among top 200 scores in fantasy football, on average, your running back is going to outscore your receiver by about two points per game in
2:42half PPR. That gets knocked down to like 1.3, 1.4 points per game in PPR leagues.
2:47There's just a lot more viable receivers. So, you're you're thinking through these hero running back strategies, make sure you keep that in
2:53the back of your mind, too. You're just going to have more viable receivers in PPR leagues.
2:58Joe, I'll throw to you first. I love doing hero running back strategy in in auction leagues. I think it actually works the best in auction leagues where
3:05you have, you know, you can obviously you have access to every player in the player pool, but you can also just like load up
3:12on value. Every room is a little different. It's a lot easier to go after running backs under, you know, 10, 8, 10
3:18bucks in auction formats and kind of load up on that like, you know, RB2, RB3, RB4 and then stash in just some $1
3:25cheap bets that are handcuffs.
3:27>> Yeah, so like obviously if you want a full discussion on auctions, by the way, after this video because you want to
3:33watch this video first. There's a there's a video on the Fantasy Points YouTube feed with myself, Brian Drake, and Drew Davenport. We do it every year
3:41and we talk about some of those things.
3:42But the cool thing about an auction league, if you want to go hero RB, is you can kind of set the tone in the room
3:48where you can maybe throw out It doesn't even have to be Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan, Christian McCaffrey, but it can be a
3:54Jonathan Taylor, uh, a James Cook, somebody like that where you're like, I'm going to pay up for this running back, and then maybe you can wait and
4:01see what everybody else does at the running back position, and then hope to try to create some value for you down
4:06the board at wide receiver. And that becomes really the critical discussion point this off season. Was last year, and the last 2 years, really an outlier
4:16for wide receivers in terms of just not just the person and L shifts around the NFL, but also how frequently top wide
4:23receivers and top quarterbacks got hurt.
4:26Outlierly high number of injury rates.
4:29Is there a way to bounce back? And is this strategy here, hero running back, where you're not totally eschewing the elite running backs, as a matter of
4:36fact, it's a key part of the strategy, but then using your next few picks or the balance of your budget to identify
4:44two, three wide receivers who can really help you. And I think we figured out that maybe making that bet is the most
4:50efficient way to draft in 2026.
4:52>> I think it is, man. The The receiver pool from rounds three through five, Tom, is just so good. We've talked about
4:58this on a number of shows, and in particular on, you know, kind of less sharp sites, like Sleeper and Yahoo and
5:04ESPN, where ADP really hasn't set in yet. Maybe you're doing some early drafts for your season-long leagues over on those platforms.
5:11Man, receiver looks so good in that that pocket. It is hard I'm just saying I think it's harder to do this year
5:17because running back has gotten pushed so much up into the first and second round and across all platforms. This is looking like, you know, an old school
5:24type year, like 2015 or 2016 type running back, uh, outlook, but Tom, I I I like doing this quite a bit, uh, in
5:33in, you know, kind of like less sharp formats. It feels wrong to say, but it is it is easier to pull off because the
5:39receivers >> That's what I was saying.
5:43Playing in your your hometown, uh, uh, leagues, or, you know, wherever you're playing, and you feel like you uh, in years past I I've done a little
5:51bit of zero RB but I really do like the hero RB especially if you feel go back and watch our zero RB discussion
5:58some for some lower end running backs that you can target. I think you can also target a lot of those guys in a
6:04hero RB build and if you think you can have an edge by getting some of those guys later in the draft and it helps you
6:09maybe attack like a tight end position where I like Cole Kmet a lot in the fourth round. If you want to go be kind
6:17of an outlier and go Josh Allen in the third round going with the hero RB approach, you know, doesn't it's not just going and
6:24attacking the wide receivers. You can go for those one-Z positions a little bit earlier. If you think you do have an
6:29edge drafting later in you know, if you feel like you know a little bit more than your league mates and can get some
6:35of those sleeper running backs that can fill that RB2 spot for you. So I I typically use this approach with my
6:42drafts. I would say I'm most of my builds are hero or RB most years but this year could be a little bit
6:50different. I think I am going to do a little bit more RB RB build just because of how running backs are going off the
6:55board so quickly but hero RB is always a viable option.
7:00>> Yeah, RB RB is typically the way I've been drafting too Tom and it really is just that receiver pool is so good
7:06rounds three through six. I do I do think if you're in a league with call it two running backs three receivers and
7:12multiple flex spots. I think this works even better especially in PPR leagues because you're going to probably starting more receivers in the you know,
7:19to begin with in the first place and like I said at the beginning of the show. It is just easier to make up
7:24receiver production in PPR leagues vis-a-vis running backs compared to half PPR and especially in standard leagues.
7:31Standard leagues it's almost like impossible to do like a full hero or zero running back league now if you're just chasing touchdowns. Yeah, you're
7:37probably going to want to be drafting way more running backs in those formats.
7:41Let's get it going here guys. We're not going to be talking about Jamir Gibbs and Breece Hall Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor. Like those
7:46guys are clearly, you know, the clear hero running back candidates in the first round.
7:51Any of those team builds, you take one of those four guys, you come back and you get A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Drake
7:57London, Brock Bowers in the second round, then you just go ham at receiver in the third, fourth, and fifth round.
8:02Basically, the entire approach to hero running back is, like Joe was mentioning at the top of the show, it's just avoiding the, you know, the fourth and
8:09fifth round of running backs.
8:11Historically speaking, we are much better at, you know, identifying receiver breakouts in that pocket.
8:18You know, you look at pretty much any advanced rate data, that's what it shows. So, that's what this entire strategy is about. You get your one
8:25hammer running back and avoid running backs in rounds three, really four and five. That's the main rounds you're trying to avoid and draft some
8:31receivers. So, beyond those four guys, I think there's some clear hero running back candidates at the one-two turn this year that are very, very attractive to
8:40me. They're James Cook, Saquon Barkley, and Devon Achane. And I threw Achane in this discussion just because he projects so well. I'll be honest, I feel the
8:49least amount of confidence in Achane compared to Cook and Barkley, Tom.
8:54I think Cook and Barkley both have clear top-five upside. Like there's just no doubt about it.
8:59Top-five weekly upside. I think if James Cook plays more in the passing game this year, he has top-three upside in fantasy
9:05football.
9:06How are you treating Devon Achane though? I think that's the one I'm like, man, I'm I'm really squinting at cuz he
9:11projects so well for us here at at Fantasy Points.
9:14>> Yeah, he's been a tough click for me, quite honestly. He's been sliding down my draft boards.
9:20There's a lot of great second round picks right now. So, I have not been selecting a whole lot of them because I'm mostly looking at his
9:27downside with Malik Willis. I don't know if he's going to throw it to him as much.
9:33Is this team going to score a lot of touchdowns? But if you look at it from a you know, a a glass half full type of
9:40approach, he has a ton of upside. We saw it last year. Explosive runner.
9:45One of you know, one of the best players at the position. This offensive [snorts] line took some steps forward last year. I we
9:53all kind of thought it was going to be one of the worst in the league and it was much better than people
9:57anticipated. So, if you look at it that maybe Malik Willis, maybe he's a little bit of a sleeping giant at the quarterback position. Maybe
10:05this offense is much better than everybody anticipates. He does have that top five upside. So, we we know he can catch the ball a lot
10:13and they don't have a whole lot of receivers. So, should get a lot of design targets. So, he does have that potential. If this
10:21Dolphins offense, everybody's kind of projecting them as a bottom three type of unit, but maybe if they're just like league average, Devon Achane could be a
10:29top five back.
10:32>> Yeah, I'm struggling with Achane too, Joe. I think the main thing I I keep coming back to with Achane. It's like,
10:37okay, he scored double-digit touchdowns in three straight seasons. We know he can rip off long plays. I I think we were generally overconfident in our
10:44ability to project out the worst offenses in the league.
10:47I'm not too actually concerned so much about the touchdowns. I'm more concerned about like the receptions really falling for him for this year, Joe. Like
10:55man, like Malik Willis, one of the things that is very sticky year over year is just quarterback target rates.
11:01And Malik Willis basically does not target his running backs. He's He's targeted his receivers a ton and then if he's you know, if he's not getting what
11:08he wants downfield, he's probably going to take off and scramble. Achane over the last two years, he's got 78 and 67
11:13receptions. We're still projecting a very very strong receiving role for him just because the rest of this Miami, you know, depth chart and their receivers so
11:21bad. It's it's a joke how bad it is. All that being said though, man. I mean, I think there's a significant chance
11:26Achane takes like a 10% dip in in receptions this year, which really hurts him.
11:30>> Yeah, so I I like Malik Willis as kind of like this late like best ball quarterback. I know Ryan has a
11:36compelling reason why he's fading him.
11:38But, I mean the reasons that I like Malik Willis as a late round quarterback and the reasons you might like Devon Achane kind of
11:46counteract each other, which I'm a little concerned about. And I don't know how useful this piece of advice is going to be, but if I was drafting just one
11:53fantasy football team this year, I'm not sure Devon Achane is going to be the guy I'm going to bet my house on be just
12:02because of the fact that I just think this team has a chance to be really bad.
12:06It's so easy for me to say, "Well, I have 20 best ball teams and 20 dynasty teams and I'm [laughter] in 15 leagues
12:14and yeah, I'll have some Devon Achane."
12:16I'm not sure if I was drafting in one league that this would be the guy I would stake my hero strat RB strategy
12:22on.
12:23>> I think I think that's kind of what you're touching on. And I the only reason I put him in this clear strategy,
12:28you know, clear hero running back strategy >> So, he can blow up.
12:30>> Exactly, bro. Like, we've seen this for 2 years. Like, he's been one of the highest advance rate players and it's it
12:35feels like, you know, you just look at you basically compare his statistics to Bijan Robinson. He's been he's been like a 95% Bijan Robinson and you take him in
12:43the middle of the second round.
12:45All that being said though, yeah, I I have some significant concerns concerns about Achane, too. Uh James Cook and Saquon Barkley. I talked to Rich Reubar
12:52quite a bit yesterday about Saquon and his bounce back potential. You should go listen to to Rich's analysis on Saquon.
12:59I think there's some humongous upside with this Eagles offense this season, in particular with Saquon getting everybody back healthy. Uh Saquon makes a ton of
13:07sense in these types of builds. He also makes a ton of sense where you just double tap running back. You take James
13:12Cook and Saquon at the one-two turn.
13:15But, Barkley it kind of sets up very similarly to him uh to his breakout season 2 years ago uh for Barkley there kind of like the one-two
13:23turn.
13:24We'll keep it going here, guys. Some underrated hero running back candidates. And I I put Ashton Jeanty and Amari Hampton in
13:32this category simply cuz we have not seen them do it before. But, I also think Chase Brown and Derrick Henry are
13:37a little a little interesting when it comes to this. Tom, I think Chase Brown's very underrated.
13:42The volume has been really good by expected fantasy points over the last two seasons. He's basically been top five or top six. It's just like, can we
13:50get Joe Burrow healthy for 1 year? The Bengals did nothing at back in their backfield this offseason, man. It's just him and Samaje Perine.
13:58>> Yeah, Samaje Perine still around. He's He's a fine back. He, you know, kind of does the job. He's just a guy back
14:05there, though. So, I I don't think we're going to lose many touches to him. He's kind of the insurance plan. He'll He'll
14:11take a couple carries away, play a little bit on third downs, but the rest of this backfield is all Chase Brown.
14:17So, you know, we're all expecting this Bengals offense to be one of the best in the NFL.
14:24And I I think a a little bit of an under-talked-about offensive line is developing here in Cincinnati. They got a lot of talent.
14:33It's a lot of continuity, as well. All All five starters are back, and Amarius Mims is a guy that a lot of people are
14:40looking at as a potential breakout at the tackle position. So, we like this offensive line. We like the quarterback play. I think we also feel better if
14:49something does happen to Joe Burrow. We still have Joe Flacco waiting in the wings, and we saw this offense continue to put up numbers after he came into the
14:58lineup in relief of Joe Burrow. So, I like a lot of the setup here. Chase Brown, it was a slow start last year,
15:06and I think some people might be holding that against him a little bit, but anybody that had him was very happy in
15:12the second half of the second half of the season. So, a great target here in the back end of the, you know, middle to back end of the
15:20second round. Maybe if you start with a JSN or Yeah, I I I I I I maybe I don't know if
15:25I'd want to do it with a Jamar Chase.
15:27Maybe you know, taking two Bengals with your first two picks, but makes a whole lot of sense if maybe you draft Puka or
15:33JSN early in the first round.
15:36>> Yeah, that's that's exactly what I'm thinking is you take Amon-Ra, you take JSN, you take Puka, you come back at
15:41Chase Brown and you can just basically, you know, if one of these running backs in the third round falls to you, maybe Jeremiah
15:47Love or Breece Hall falls, sure, you absolutely go after them. But the third round's kind of been cleaned out this year, guys. Third round has been
15:54basically like a gold mine for running backs over the last two years, but it's been it's been pretty cleaned out this
15:59year.
15:59>> round.
15:59>> All the all of them are exactly, that's exactly right, being pushed into that second round. Joe, the other the other
16:05running back that really is compelling to me and he's eventually going to fall off the cliff. Somebody, you know, one of these years Derrick Henry is going to
16:12is going to be, you know, he's going to be a mere mortal amongst us amongst us mortals down here, but Derrick Henry
16:18over the last two seasons is RB 5 in fantasy points per game in wins.
16:23And the Ravens have, I don't know, a very strong team outlook this year.
16:27>> Yeah, they're the top record, yeah, in terms of win totals. They're the top in the AFC, right behind the Rams overall.
16:33>> I know and I'm looking at this and I'm like, man, okay, we've got an 11 and 1/2 win team total. They're implied for 26
16:38points per game. Like why wouldn't Derrick Henry be a great hero running back candidate again?
16:44>> Yeah, and by the way, not for nothing, they are talking about him getting a little bit more involved in the passing
16:51game, which I mean, at some point I'll, you know, he's played for what, 10 years in the NFL and he's never caught more than 33
16:59passes in a season, but this is a guy who in the screen game is really good.
17:03He's really good at it. I mean, he doesn't he's averaged over 10 receipt yards per reception in each of his two
17:09years with Baltimore. The problem is he's only caught 19 and 15 passes in those seasons. But nonetheless, the point for Derrick Henry is not what,
17:16teaching an old dog new tricks. It's that the old dog still has that fight in him and he's on a good football team
17:23with, you know, just a fresh perspective here with the new coach and Jesse Minter and just getting um maybe some of the
17:30kinks knocked out.
17:33Is Derrick Henry going to fall off the cliff?
17:36You know what? At this point, I think we have to acknowledge that he might just be like wake up one day
17:42and like Forrest Gump just be like I'm pretty tired. I'm done. But like he's just going to run for uh uh 1,500
17:50yards and 15 touchdowns every season until he does that. So, I I There has been no indication that Derrick Henry is falling off. None
17:58whatsoever.
17:59>> Yeah, there is not really underneath the hood. Yeah, his yards after contact and missed tackle force numbers, you know, they've fallen off like a little bit.
18:05But man, at the end of last year, he was still incredible. Closed out his last four games with over 600 yards of
18:11rushing. And again, that was with like a busted Lamar Jackson. Uh his last four games, he had 85 carries, 570 yards, and
18:17six touchdowns to close out the season.
18:19>> That was the complaints at the end of the season from Ravens fans. What are we doing? Get Derrick Henry in the game.
18:24Get him the ball. He's the only thing that's working for this offense. And uh we'll see if it the the cliff is here,
18:31Joe. But I I don't believe it. I'll I'll believe it when I see it. He's standing at the top of the cliff saying, "Come on
18:36at me. I'm I'm the king here." So, uh I'm going to continue to draft him in that late second round.
18:42>> Yeah, I don't think the king has been dethroned. I fully expect it to be out on Henry. I thought he'd be going
18:47earlier, but man, he's going 17, 18 overall in half PPR. He sometimes even gets pushed down closer to the two-three turn in PPR leagues. I think I think
18:55that's just a great price for him. As in Jinty and Omar and Hampton, Jinty is going right in that pocket with Cook and
19:00Barkley. I didn't put him in the clear here running back category just because we haven't truly seen him do that. We
19:06haven't truly seen him be a here running back. But man, I mean the The volume should be incredible. I think as in Kendre Miller going to push
19:13Christian McCaffrey this year if McCaffrey stays healthy obviously and snap rate. And then Omarian Hampton is just one of my favorite players to
19:20draft. I'm I'm still question you know, obviously he hasn't done it.
19:24Last year he averaged 15.1 PPR points per game. Was a very very solid RB2 in the games he was healthy. Missed a ton
19:31of time due to that ankle injury, but he has you know, certainly hero running back upside. His first four games last
19:37year he was you know, RB7 at snap rate 77%.
19:42There's definite bellcow upside here with Hampton and obviously an ascending offense on the Chargers. I would be a little more skeptical I think of
19:52out of all these players Henry I put last. I think he is the the last guy in just because we like you said Joe, he's
19:58only caught what 30 his career high is 33 receptions you said. He does not have the full you know, passing down upside
20:05that I think Kendre Miller Hampton and especially Chase Brown have. Typically you want to have a full blown bellcow who's never going to come off the field
20:12and catch a ton of passes in your hero running back kind of role.
20:15But you know, Henry still has that >> of those duds every once every couple of every couple of weeks which really does
20:21hurt your team, but he doesn't have that nice building floor, but he does put up more monster games than these guys.
20:27>> Yeah, exactly. That's the thing is like he still has that huge two touchdown upside in ways that you know, Kendre
20:33Miller and Hampton don't necessarily have. The final category that we'll talk about real quick is the Yolo hero running back candidates. I just bend
20:42these guys into like man, it would take I don't know. [snorts] We have some you know, basically these guys are have huge
20:49upside, but we still have some concerns either about the role or the offense.
20:54It's Kendre Miller, Breece Hall and Jeremaih Love. For the last two Hall and Love it's obviously just concerns over the offense. These two teams are bottom
21:01three right now in implied points per game. But Tom you're on Kendre Miller and I love your reasoning behind it.
21:07It's like they just paid him a boatload of money. They brought a Brinks truck to his house and just backed it up. Walker
21:12should play more in the passing downs, and I saw some reports this week from a few beat reporters that man, he might
21:18have to play he's they're they're kind of dialing up some more screens for him in the pass game. It's a little bit like
21:22the Derrick Henry conversation. Like, okay, yeah, sure. He's not like a you know, great route runner or anything like that, but he certainly can house
21:28some screens.
21:29>> Yeah, and I think that that could be a role for him. He could be a little bit more involved in the passing game. They
21:34do have some backs in Amari Demercado and Breashaad Smith and Emmit Johnson that can play a little bit in the passing game, but I think a big reason
21:44why Kenneth Walker went to Kansas City outside of the money, he wanted he wants a bell cow type of role. He wants to be
21:51out in the field more. He was losing constantly losing snaps to Zach Charbonnet in that committee up in Seattle. If he prioritized us, you know,
21:59winning championships and maybe he would have stayed in Seattle. Certainly can do that can chase them in Kansas City as well, but I think he wanted to go to
22:09Kansas City to have a bigger role. I think Kansas City wants a back that they can really lean on. It's been
22:16an a bit of an annoying committee there the last couple of years and they just weren't getting any kind of explosive
22:22plays out of the backfield. So, they targeted him and he went there cuz he wants to play a little bit more. So,
22:29now we're just kind of counting on this Chiefs offense to bounce back a little bit, but I think we've certainly you
22:35know, they have a long track record with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback of being a good offense. So, I think they can easily bounce back here. Yeah, I
22:45like you know, if you go with an Amon-Ra or a Justin Jefferson or a CD Lamb in that late first round, targeting Kenneth
22:53Walker in the second round coming back around and then just you know, see if he does finally get that big passing role
22:59that that been kind of wanting from him and up in Seattle and hopefully he gets I don't see any of those backs behind
23:06him really challenging him for short yardage carries as well, which was always a a problem up in Seattle with Zach Charbonnet.
23:13>> Yeah, that's that's the main thing is he's going to have the goal line roll fully to himself. I think there's some
23:17underrated upside here with his receiving role too. You look back just two years ago Alvin Kamara and De'Von Achane led all running backs in
23:24receptions per game. Kenneth Walker was number number three. He only played in 11 games two years ago back in in 2023
23:31now, but man 4.2 receptions per game. He had excuse me 2024 was the season. He had 46 receptions. But you know, he was the RB3
23:40in receptions per game. If we get him close to 50 receptions man. He is going to fully pay off the ADP and and
23:45probably probably deserves to be in the the clear hero running back category. Breece Hall and Jeremiah Love to Joe, it's really
23:52just the offenses. Both players have clear pass down upside. Breece Hall a couple years ago had a monster season in the passing
24:00It hasn't really been that you know, as good of a role in the passing game for him over the last two seasons, but he
24:05you know, 2023 had a 76 reception season.
24:09Gets the quarterback upgrade with Geno Smith.
24:12This offense it's just man, it's been stuck in mud. And then with Jeremiah Love like I love the talent. Obviously that the upside with him is huge. We're
24:21just dealing with a a horrible quarterback room.
24:24I I I squint with these two guys. I think I'd still need to come back and you know, take like Javonte say Williams
24:31or Josh Jacobs in the third round to feel really good about my running back room, but there's there's definitely a little bit of upside here if both these
24:37players you know, are at the top end of the range of outcomes in terms of the receiving role this year.
24:41>> If I'm betting on one of those two Breece Hall or Jeremiah Love, my bet is going to be on Jeremiah Love.
24:47I actually have less concerns about the offense at large as you do because I think Jacoby Brissett and I believe they
24:52will get a contract done with him.
24:55I think he can operate a perfectly average NFL offense and I think they have the talent at least at the skill positions to do that.
25:03My bigger concern with Love is the fact that they have Tyler Allgeier and James Conner behind him. I would feel so much
25:10better if they were to trade one of those guys and I think it would be Conner would be the guy because they
25:15went out and signed Allgeier this off season. The concern is Tyler Allgeier we have already seen it. We have seen him
25:24take 200 touches away from a top 10 rookie running back, right? Like we have already seen that. It is a different
25:31team, I understand that, but he is the type of guy that coaches just put in well he's big. So guess what? He's going
25:37to get our short yardage work. He's going to get our goal line work. I I would be shocked if we're not screaming
25:42about that at some point this season.
25:43That's my biggest concern with Jeremaine Love.
25:46>> Yeah, that's my concern too and I think it's it's less of a concern with Breece Hall. I've been a big Braelon Allen
25:51hater my entire my [laughter] entire fantasy and it's worked out for him.
25:55It's worked out very very well. I think Isaiah Davis is just a better football player. I think he's better in passing
26:00downs. I think if if Breece Hall God forbid were were to get hurt this would just be a split. We've seen this for
26:05back-to-back years when Breece Hall misses time or he comes off the field.
26:08They end up just splitting Allen and Davis. But you look at our projections man. I mean Breece Hall out projects Jeremaine Love just very very slightly
26:16and we're projecting you know 242 carries for Breece, 220 to Jeremaine Love and I think that really just speaks to Joe's point about Allgeier and Conner
26:25being significant backfield competition.
26:27I do think they try to move James Conner especially if he can prove that he's healthy in training camp. There's going
26:32to be a team that probably loses a back or needs veteran help at some point. So that probably will help you know Love's
26:38projection just a little bit. Finally, I want to talk about a modified hero running back approach here. This is like for example, you take Ja'Marr Chase or
26:46Puka Nacua in the first round, you come back and you get Brock Bowers in the second round. You you amazing about your
26:50receiver and tight end.
26:52There's two running backs that are going in the third round right now that they might be boring, but they project incredibly well for us. It's Josh Jacobs
27:01and Javonte Williams. Jacobs projects right behind Breece Hall at RB 14.
27:05Javonte's right behind Jeremiah Love at RB 16. And then there's just like a huge drop-off between these two players and the rest of the running back grouping.
27:14It's Cam Akers, Kyren Williams, David Montgomery. Both those all three of those players kind of going at the end of the you know Kyren goes in the middle
27:21of the third round, but Cam Akers and David Montgomery in particular are going in that fourth round pocket. I'm just looking at this Joe from like a volume
27:27perspective. Like if Josh Jacobs doesn't miss any time, like he kind of has that Derrick Henry light in him, you know
27:33what I'm saying? Like he doesn't have a great passing down role, but he has tons of touchdown upside. And this Packers
27:38offense is very underrated. I feel like we're underrating this team going into this season. Packers are tied with the 49ers by implied points per game this
27:46year. Jacobs, I mean if he doesn't get suspended this season, you know, if there's no other you know news to come out on that front. It
27:54doesn't seem likely he's going to get suspended this year. And Javonte Williams, like he kind of has a Saquon Barkley type projection in a way where
28:01like he doesn't have a huge pass down role, but it's a great offense that could score a ton of points and he's
28:07their goal line back.
28:08>> Yeah, so Javonte obviously I prefer here just because well, it doesn't look like Javonte is angling to be suspended here.
28:15But I mean the the problem with Josh Jacobs is you have to be willing to assume that risk, right? And I can't sit here and tell you what's
28:23going to happen. At this point they have decided not to press charges on Josh Jacobs in a potential domestic violence situation. If I am not getting the
28:32language exactly correct, I apologize.
28:35But they have at to this point have declined to press charges, but they could always re-repress.
28:41And the NFL might decide to drop the hammer at that stage.
28:45If Josh Jacobs was not did not have this situation hanging over his head, he's going in the second round, right? Like,
28:51I think there's a whole round discount going there. And if you are willing to assume that risk, that is a monster,
28:58quote unquote, value pick. Um again, I I it's gross to talk about it in from that angle, but this is fantasy football. And
29:06probably, I mean, I would think it's the the if you really want to shoot for the stars, would be the pick. But Javonte, I
29:13think, is safe. He looked better last year than I anticipated. He was a complete zero in the passing game.
29:18That's a big concern. But Dallas could be a team that just allows Javonte Williams to fall into the end zone 12,
29:2413, 14 times this year. And that is a massive, massive um coup in the third round if you're pairing that with a with
29:33a guy who can win the triple crown at wide receiver, and frankly, a guy who can win the triple crown at tight end,
29:39as well. So, um I I I love that if I am getting Bowers. And if you listen to my content here over the last few weeks, I
29:45have become like quite obsessed with Brock Bowers in the second round.
29:49>> Yeah, Brock Bowers is going to win some leagues this year. I'm looking at this Javonte Williams situation is like, man,
29:54he's he could be a very underrated bellcow. And I'm with you, Joe. Like, he's not the world's best receiver.
29:59Uh he's not going to be the most explosive pass catcher. That's just, you know, not really what he's been in his
30:05NFL career. He's kind of just been a volume back. But I mean, this backfield is going to be fully his, according to
30:11Todd Archer over at ESPN. Malik Davis might not make this team, guys. It might just be Jaden Blue and Phil Mafah behind
30:18him. That's what he's projecting in terms of the running back room. They also have Hunter Lipke, he's kind of quasi fullback for them. I I think, Tom,
30:26Javonte's like, I'm kind of with you. I I I kind of went into this off season thinking, man, I Javonte's going to be
30:32overpriced. He's going at the three-four turn, guys. Like, the volume should be really good, and the offense should be really good. Tom, are you are you in on
30:38Javonte?
30:39>> Uh little bit. You know, it's one of those if I really need a running back at that point, but like I said at the top,
30:46I've been doing a little bit more RB RB starts, so not not getting him a whole ton, but makes sense. I mean, he
30:53this is a back this backfield is all his. It's a lot like the the situation we went through with Chase Brown. This
30:59backfield is all his. It's a similar type offense, two stud wide receivers.
31:04Defenses are going to respect this passing game, so he's going to have running lanes. He's going to be able to to rack up yards, and they're going to
31:11be scoring a lot. So, very similar situation. His offensive line might already be better as well. We like the upside of Cincinnati's offensive line,
31:20but I think Dallas's offensive line is Scott Di Benedetto. He had him had them ranked 12th in his rankings up on the
31:29site. So, this is an offensive line that's going to create some holes. So, really just comes down to the role in
31:35the passing game. He wasn't very effective last year, but we've seen him in Denver. I mean, he's he's had some decent receiving seasons. So, he's
31:42capable of it, but it just didn't really materialize last year. I think looks like 137 yards on 35 catches.
31:51>> Yeah.
31:52>> That's not a a great yards per reception mark, but that could certainly bounce back this season. And if we can get 35
32:00to 40 catches and get that number up to like 250 yards, 300 yards, we might be cooking with Javonte Williams.
32:07>> Yeah, don't look at Javonte Williams' career yards per target. Just don't do it. It'll gross you out. Just just don't
32:12do it. But yeah, I'm with you. I mean, that's a great comp between him and Chase Brown. The volume has been really
32:16good. Last last year Javonte was RB8 in expected fantasy points per game. That was just behind Devon Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, Chase Brown, Bijan Robinson, JT,
32:25and McCaffrey. So, the volume should be very very good for Williams again this year. I'm I'm looking at him not necessarily as like I don't I don't
32:33think I'd feel super great about having him as my my RB1, my clear-cut RB1 in a hero hero running back type of build,
32:40but I think you can make up for it.
32:42There are ways to build around him with like Jamar Chase, Puka Nacua, plus a Brock Bowers in the second round, and
32:47you can feel great about your start.
32:50Guys, hero running back is one of the my favorite ways to build. Again, you're taking one hammer running back in the
32:55first couple of rounds, and then kind of streaming your RB2 spot throughout the season. It's much easier to do in managed leagues, much harder to do over
33:03the last couple of years in best ball, simply because we have access to the waiver wire, you can make trades, and
33:08improve your roster to make this strategy work. This has been a look at the hero running back candidates here at Fantasy Points. If you have not
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33:52>> [music]
