10 QB's That Could BREAK Fantasy Football in 2026 (Scott Barrett's Exodia)
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Jun 15, 2026
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Mon, June 15, 2026
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0:10That's him. That's the OG. [music] Who should be my Exodia quarterback in
0:252026? Who is the number one mustdraft quarterback you can't leave your drafts without? I don't know. But that's why Ryan Heath is here. He's going to tell
0:35me who the best mid to late round quarterback is. Uh we're going to debate it out. We're going to tear it out. Um
0:43this is School of Scott. No Theo today.
0:46And uh yeah, first I'd like to talk to the great and honorable Ryan Heath about his most recent article. He did a deep
0:55dive. What stats really matter at the fantasy quarterback position? Uh Ryan, what what happened here? This looks like a lot of work it took you. If you you
1:05could scroll down a little bit and Trey and see all the different metrics you tested.
1:11>> Yeah. Yeah. I like to kind of re-up this uh just idea every single year, like remind myself, okay, what's actually the
1:17most predictive year-over-year uh just at projecting out fantasy production?
1:22Uh, and for quarterbacks, which yeah, we dove into in this article, as you can see, every rushing metric is highlighted in blue on this chart. So, rushing in
1:32general is very, very important. Of course, uh, above that is basically only fantasy points per game. So, pass performance, uh, rushing production, the
1:43two biggest things by far to me. Uh, after that, I think you can get into like some real life efficiency stuff. uh
1:51whether you want to do that by EPA per drop back, uh adjusted net yards per attempt, kind of any of these more like
1:58real life efficiency stats, uh pressure to sack ratio, just like is the guy good enough to stay on the field the whole
2:05season is kind of how I think of it. Um so yeah, efficiency over passing volume at the quarterback position. Yeah, that's just like I think a good little
2:12refresher uh for us at the beginning as we're going to discuss all these guys in terms of like what what the things we're
2:19just looking for are like what what are the things that we want an Exodia candidate to hit, >> right? I think that was well put. Uh I
2:27think they absolutely have to be a runner, but you know in today's day and age it's like do we quantify Trevor Lawrence as a runner? I would.
2:36Justin Herbert as a runner, Drake May as a runner, they're, you know, at the very least on that borderline. They're not
2:42Lamar Jackson, but they're they're up there. Um, and yeah, so that's that's really the most important thing. It's just this absolute cheat code. It's, you
2:50know, 10 rushing yards equals 25 passing yards and what, two rushing touchdowns is equivalent to three passing touchdowns. So, of course, that confers
3:01an advantage over these mobile quarterbacks. um it gives you this fantastic week-to-eek floor where if you're good as a passer on top of that
3:12uh you just really can't compete if you're like look at what Matthew Stafford did last year. He had 15 passing touchdowns more than any other
3:20quarterback.
3:22And still, you know, it Josh Allen finished as the overall QB1 and he's finished top two in six straight seasons. And uh I don't know he was what
3:33Sav was actually behind Drake May you know who at least 15 fewer passing touchdowns but May ran just a little bit
3:40more. Um but then yeah you the other key takeaway here is efficiency mattering more than volume. And that's I feel like
3:50the opposite is true of the other positions where with like running backs we're really just counting snaps and with wide receivers we we're chasing
3:57targets. But with the running back position, if you look on that chart, how high EPA per dropback ranks, above dropbacks per game, above, you know, raw
4:09pass attempts, like that's that's really surprising. I will say like it's great when you have a an efficient quarterback who also has volume like um Joe Joe
4:20Burrow uh Joe Burrow's Bengals ranked second in drop backs last year. Jacobe Brassett's Cardinals led the league in dropbacks. He had like I don't know 30%
4:29more than the Eagles. And uh yeah, Jacobe Brassette isn't anything special.
4:34Wasn't even a runner, but he finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback in I think just about every one of the starts
4:40except for one or two. Um but yeah.
4:42Yeah, that is something you have to and you saw that with Drew Brees. We saw that with Tom Brady, Pton Manning, guys
4:48who didn't run but had that obscene efficiency.
4:52And so, any other closing thoughts in this before we take these takeaways and apply them to some mid to late round
5:00quarterbacks and hopefully land on who my Exodia quarterback should be.
5:06Yeah, I think just quickly on that point uh with Jacobe Brassette, we get this kind of every year uh because passing
5:14volume is outside of the exceptions like a Joe Burrow where we just know that that guy is going to be near the top of
5:21the league in drop backs per game every single season and we we have like several years of proof of that. A lot of
5:27the time like the leaders in pass attempts just end up being more environmentally based. it it's because the Cardinals were trailing by two
5:35scores for basically every single offensive snap last year uh that Jacobe Brassette ended up with so many drop backs, right? And that's like one of the
5:44worst and like hardest things to bet on or to project is number one like which quarterback passing wise is going to
5:51have that confluence of factors to have that amazing passing volume and two who who's actually going to take advantage of it in terms of the touchdown rate.
5:59Uh, like yes, we get these like high-end passing fantasy producers every year, but it it's almost impossible to predict it in advance and like individually
6:10betting on any one of them for that reason I I think is just much worse uh that than yeah, focusing on the rushing
6:18upside, the overall offensive efficiency upside, all of that. So yeah, that's just stuff I want to keep in mind. But yeah, we can move into some of these
6:26guys uh who Yeah, go for I I had one last, you know, meta strategy thing. Um, so this is a tweet you put out. I'm
6:33guessing this is research for anatomy of a league winner. Uh, it's just, you know, something we've talked about constantly is looking back over the
6:40years at who are the league winners? Who were the players that really defined a season, made the most impact on you
6:50winning or losing your league? And if you look at this dating back to 2017, you really don't see any quarterbacks, which is kind of shocking. And like you
7:00don't, okay, there's 2019 Lamar Jackson.
7:03That's, you know, a legendary season for a late round quarterback. One of my best calls of all time. Um, you see Jaylen
7:10Herz, you see 2024 Lamar Jackson, but I mean like there have been so many super late round quarterbacks to finish top
7:19three at the position. Like that's a big reason why I'm, you know, late round quarterback. It's well, every single year I bet on uh an Exodia quarterback
7:29going round seven or later or really like probably round nine or later. And every year I nail that pick. So like,
7:36why would I waste my time with an early quarterback deferring away the opportunity cost when we want to be drafting running backs and wide
7:43receivers? But it transcends even that.
7:46and saying even when you do land on this, you know, super late round league winner, Stafford was a free pick last
7:53year who finished top three in fantasy points per game and he still wasn't a differencemaker. And so it's it's only that much harder for round three to
8:02seven quarterbacks to matter. And so yeah, again, that's the reminder here is, you know, Josh Allen top two of the position in fantasy points per game.
8:13He's not on this list. Uh, and so yeah, and and him, he's a step above, in my opinion, by a good margin a Lamar Jackson, a Jaylen
8:24Herz, um, even Drake May, my guy. And and so yeah, I I just I just can't see myself taking quarterbacks that early.
8:34>> Yeah, the biggest thing is the opportunity cost, right? Um, with that list, while it's true that if if you kind of go further down to like 60%
8:43playoff win rate, 55%, that a lot of the quarterbacks that do show up are kind of these top five round quarterbacks. It's
8:51like a bunch of Jaylen Herz and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson seasons. When we get to like the tippy top, like the top
8:5830 seasons of all time, Yeah. it's only three quarterbacks. Uh, and just Yeah.
9:03the the difference between those and just what you get from late the late round quarterback is not that high in my
9:12opinion. Like there is just much more overall upside in going running back or wide receiver. It's easier to draft quarterbacks in the late rounds and get
9:21pretty good production than it is with running backs and wide receivers. And I I just want as many shots at RB and wide
9:28receiver that I can get in those first six rounds is kind of how I'm thinking of it. Just cuz that that's like
9:34overwhelmingly where the league winning seasons come at those positions. It's you're really foregoing like your best and only shots at the highest upside
9:43seasons in fantasy if you are opting for that earlier QB. Uh so yeah, we can basically start our discussion at QB5 or
9:52QB6 or wherever you want to go based on that. Uh or if you want to talk about early guys, we can. But yeah, let let me
9:58know where you want to take this.
10:00>> Uh yeah, just for the folks at home, uh Exodia quarterbacks over the the years.
10:05I'll send a tweet to to Trey. Um 2019 Lamar Jackson, 2020 Josh Allen, 2021 Jaylen Herz, 2022 Justin Fields. All
10:15these guys being drafted QB10 to QB20 have finished what? Top three, top four fantasy points per game. 2023, Anthony Richardson. Sorry about that,
10:26guys. Uh 2024, Jaden Daniels. 2025, Drake May finished one vote finished as the fantasy QB2 by fantasy points per
10:35game. One vote shy of MVP. Uh poor went out for some of the fantasy point subs.
10:40He would have won. I saw a ticket for 40k. I saw a ticket for 60K. Uh, so you have Sam Monson to blame for that. No,
10:48just kidding. We We like Samson.
10:51We're friends. We're friends with Sam Monson. We don't We don't want to do that. Um, but yeah, if we could pull up
10:56ADP here. So, we'll we'll just cross off uh the top five fantasy quarterbacks.
11:03We're looking at underdog ADP, but Ryan, please turn off your best ball brain.
11:08This is start sit. We're talking about start sit here. So, uh, that's that's important to me. Um, so we could start
11:16with QB6.
11:19Whoa. Okay. I'm I'm I'm a little blindsided here by what I'm seeing in ADP a little bit. All right. We're we're
11:25Caleb Williams. QB6. Jaylen Herz QB7.
11:28Uh, did not see that coming. Um, Ryan Heath. Caleb Williams. What are your thoughts on him as a potential Exodia quarterback?
11:39I think you can make a case, right? Uh, in terms of the rushing component, the scrambling has definitely been there. It
11:46certainly was last year. I think he's roughly on the level both statistically and yeah, just how often he does it. Uh,
11:54with scramblers like a Boon Knicks, like a Justin Herbert, uh, like not quite as much as Drake May did last year, but
12:02that that's like in the ballpark. He runs enough. Uh, it's a high octane offense. Uh, it's not not a McShan offense, but after all, the Mc Shanahan
12:13offenses. Ben Johnson is probably the biggest uh just play caller that we want to buy into and we've wanted to buy into
12:22for years. Uh, so I can see it with Caleb Williams. I think the I I really think the con the entire question with
12:31this team is is like we and we've debated this for hours throughout our different projections meetings uh this offseason is like it it's just very hard
12:42to get the Bears up to like a ton of plays, a ton of pass attempts to the point where like everyone in this
12:48offense is really kicking and like smashing ADPs.
12:53I I I think the reason for that is that someone's probably going to Cale. If somebody does, Caleb kind of does either
12:59way. So, I I'm okay with it. I just think that maybe at QB6, you can make bets that are pretty similar to this. Uh
13:08like six to eight spots down the ADP board. I I think you're just kind of paying a premium for Caleb Williams, but
13:14like he he certainly could uh h have like that top three fantasy season. That that's not out of the question for me.
13:22All right. So, let's tear this, Ryan.
13:24Let's tear this. Um, Caleb Williams at cost.
13:28Where would you put him? Trey, if you could pull up the the tier list for us, where would you put him?
13:34>> I think he's like a C is probably where I'd go. I I think he's just kind of fine at cost there. Like, I like I'm not
13:42avoiding him in baseball. Am I ever drafting him in manage reddraft when there's all these other options further down the board? Probably not. Uh, but
13:50like I I get why people are into it.
13:52>> All right. Well, I would have given him an F. Keep it at C, Trey, but I would have given this an F. It's just like,
13:58yes, I'm a Caleb Williams hater, but dude, QB6 was jarring to me. Um, and I just like >> I'll just say it. I think Trevor
14:07Lawrence is should be valued exactly the same, if not even higher, than Caleb Williams. And so, he's going rounds later. So, uh, I I really don't like
14:16this, but I will make the the argument for Caleb, which is, uh, dude, he finished eighth in fantasy points per game last year, despite ranking bottom
14:24six in every accuracy metric, c catchable throw rate, offtarget throw rate, highly accurate throw rate. So, what happens if he's close to average
14:31this year? What happens if he's like good this year? Um, and it's also just like, dude, I am such a believer in uh
14:40in this offense, in Ben Johnson, in the supporting cast. It's It's not just an impossible to fail setup. It's like an
14:47impossible not to be great setup. And like, yeah, he does make some sick throws. That doesn't matter as much to me as the consistency, but he also runs,
14:55dude. Like, he uh you know, he he hit uh he was the only quarterback to hit 21 miles per hour on a run last year. He
15:02had four of the top five speeds by NGS.
15:05Um, Ben Johnson's always way up there in pace of play and drop backs and so like I I don't he's like a fine fantasy pick.
15:15He just shouldn't be QB6 in my eyes. Um, and you know like I'm not like I I've been a hater from like a real NFL
15:22standpoint, but but certainly not from a fantasy um at least in a vacuum. But at ADP this is this is bad. It becomes more
15:30jarring when you you look to the next lame name on the list and that's Jaylen Herz.
15:37What are your thoughts on Jayen Herz, Ryan? Is this shocking? I it was shocking to me.
15:42>> It is a little shocking. I think we're just all kind of tired of Jaylen Herz.
15:47That's why he's the going as the QB7.
15:49Like when you look at Herz just on paper in terms of every thing, every like box that you want an elite fantasy
15:56quarterback to check, he still does. I mean, he is still getting all the designed runs. He still has an amazing goal line role. Uh, loses AJ Brown, but
16:06they make other investments in the offense. They add Mai Lemon. They add Eli Sters, who I know Scott is a big fan
16:13of. Uh, and they bring in Shawn Manion at OC. And I think that might be one of my bigger arguments for Jaylen Herz is
16:23the Eagles seem to pingpong uh between offensive coordinators and quality of play caller every single season. They bring in an outside guy who has success
16:34like Kell Moore. Uh then that guy leaves. They uh do an internal hire. He usually fails. And then they say screw
16:42this, we're bringing in another outside guy. Shawn Manion's the outside guy this year that they're bringing in uh from the Packers. He has worked with a bunch
16:52of these McShan coaches and played for a bunch of these Mc Shanahan coaches. Uh and just what we're hearing from the
16:59Eagles has me pretty interested. Uh I I think like the discourse has been dominated by, oh, he wants to have an
17:06offense where they throw over the middle of the field more and Jaylen Herz can't do that. But I I would ask like what
17:11what if Jaylen Herz can do that or at least can do it decently enough to where that that is just a more efficient way
17:19to play offense in the NFL. Like all of the we see this all the time in so many different areas statistically, but like
17:26inbreaking and horizontally breaking routes are like the most efficient routes that a receiver can run in the NFL. And that that's kind of what it
17:34sounds like this new Eagles offense is going to be built off of. So, I I could see a world where Herz overperforms uh
17:42what people think of him as a passer.
17:45The rushing is still there and Manion just comes out of this year looking like the the next like whiz kid, uh amazing
17:55play caller. Like it I just I was like deep diving on some some of these quotes and like what Eagles players have said
18:03about their OC's historically. Uh Jordan Milada called him an evil genius. He went on for like three paragraphs talking about he was the smartest guy in
18:12the room or the like if you put one guy who was the smartest in the organization in a room it would be Shawn Manion. And
18:19you compare that to like what he was saying about uh well so first of all for Kell Moore he like predicted that he
18:27would become a head coach. Uh but yeah what what he was saying about the offense last year was a lot less
18:33bullish. So, I don't know. Maybe Jordan Milada has a good idea, like some predictive power here in terms of how good the play calling is going to be. I
18:41I think there's just, yeah, a legit case for the Eagles will be a much more competently run passing offense.
18:48Increases offensive efficiency. That's more goal line opportunities for Herz.
18:52And he's the QB7 because everyone's overfocused on the middle of the field stuff. Like I I could talk myself into this one uh a lot more than I could with
19:02Caleb Williams, but I'm curious to hear what you think, Scott.
19:04>> No, no, you got you got to give us a grade and then I'll give you my thoughts.
19:08>> All right. I will at ADP at QB7, I'm going to give Jaylen Herz, let's let's go with an A.
19:16>> Okay. Okay. I'd say Chris would probably based on our projections, I think right now Jayen Herz QB3, maybe only a point
19:23or two above QB4, but still QB3. Uh, in our projections, Chris would probably have him S tier. You have him A tier.
19:31Um, yeah, I think I think I I might be in between A and B, but but yeah, A sounds good to me. Also, uh, shout out
19:39to Chuck Bass in chat. Really one of the funniest guys on Twitter. Also, shout out to everyone playing the School of
19:46Scott drinking game at home. Whenever Ryan's the guest and he says rum, you have to do a shot of rum. So, that is
19:51two shots [laughter] of rum right now.
19:54Um, so my thoughts on Jaylen Herz, just one quick aside about the middle of the field thing is I'll kind of believe it
20:02when I see it just because he's had what four or five offensive coordinators throughout his career and like every single year he's bottom three and throws
20:10over the middle of the field. And this was true of him in college. This was a knock. If you read Brett's scouting
20:16report on him coming out, this he just doesn't see the field. Well, the big thing to me, and we're seeing it on
20:22screen right now, is you look at fantasy points per game, and this highlights why he is of value. Uh, since 2021, he's
20:28finished QB6, QB2, QB2, QB5. Last year, QB7. So, he's priced at his absolute floor. And then you break it down by
20:38rushing fantasy points per game. 9.2, 10.3, 8.9, 9.8, and then 5.6 last year.
20:46That actually makes his 2025 season look a lot better. It was a 15% drop off in fantasy points per game, but it was a
20:5242% drop off or 41% drop off in rushing fantasy points per game. And so why why did that happen? A little bit of it is
21:02just like less the luck wasn't great.
21:06Um, you know, every year he has a ton of snaps from the one yard line and it just, you know, kind of declined last
21:12year. But more than that, per Jimmy Kempky, who's really one of the best Eagles beat writers, he said Herz asked the coaching staff to remove a lot of
21:23the design quarterback runs from the game. And so, yeah, that's going to that kind of explains the whole thing. You look at, you know, leads the league in
21:32rush in design rushing fantasy points per game every year of his career. Last year, you know, he got he got brutally
21:38mogged by Jackson Dart. And so, yeah, that's that's a concern. But good news, he's on the hot seat. This has been like a major talking point all
21:48off season is, you know, they're not afraid to move away from him. That he needs to stave off Andy Dalton from
21:55taking this job. Um, and the Eagles know he's not Tom Brady. This offense is better when he's running. And so, I
22:02don't think he has any choice but to bring those design runs back into the game plan. uh and you know [snorts] you
22:09know not try and be something he's not.
22:11So yeah um certainly an ADP beater. The real question though again is what we keep coming back to is is it worth the
22:19opportunity cost of a running back or a wide receiver to take him here? I don't know. You're going to have to read my
22:25draft guide to find out. We're moving on to the next quarterback Ryan Heath. Who is
22:33um who is Dak Prescott, which is also surprising to me. Ryan Heath, give me your thoughts on Dak Prescott.
22:44>> So, with Dak Prescott, my instant reaction and my instant reaction every single year with this archetype of quarterback that is going in the top 10
22:54is is like, oh, we we should just fade, right? The one of the things that like has hit the most often is just the
23:02pocket passer that had a pretty high touchdown rate and a ton of drop backs last year and is being drafted as like a
23:10top eight, top 10 quarterback this year.
23:12Uh just fade that guy because those things aren't nearly as stable uh as the rushing stuff, right? Uh, I'm not totally sure it's that bleak with
23:23Prescott just because I think the league is a little bit different than it was like 5 years ago when a rule when a rule
23:31like that would would have really served us well. Uh, there's just less passing in the NFL overall now. Uh, it used to
23:38be that like 16 teams would just want to drop back max every single week as like the most efficient way to generate
23:45offense. Now, that applies to maybe like three or four teams. Uh, and the Cowboys have been one of those teams for most of
23:53Dak Prescott's later career, especially uh after Brian Shottenheimer came in and took over the offense last year. We just see these ultra high pass rate over
24:03expectations, these ultra high uh just drop back numbers. Uh, and like Dak, even with like a fairly average touchdown rate, I projects like about
24:15here or better. I think the upside in terms of finishing as a top two quarterback is probably not there for a
24:22Dak Prescott. Uh but the the ADP just in terms of can he finish here or higher I I think is not like as bad as I might
24:31have said about previous pocket passers just because there are yeah he's it's one of the only teams where I do feel
24:37comfortable saying like this is going to be a heavy heavy pass rate offense kind of no matter what. Um but yeah
24:44interested to hear what you think. I would probably put him down below a Caleb Williams on our tier list. Like either in C t C tier, uh maybe like top
24:55of D tier, right around there, I think.
24:59>> All right, Trey, you heard that. C or D tier. You can make the call.
25:03>> Yeah, cuz ultimately it's just that it's the it's the upside that I don't see.
25:08like yeah, I think he will probably not bust and be totally useless at a QB880p or anything like that, but I I just
25:15don't see how the path to 22 plus fantasy points per game or a top three finish.
25:23>> So, yeah, QB8 by ADP, believe it or not, he's QB7 in our projections. Um, what do I think? Yeah, this is probably another
25:33Maybe I'm just a Maybe you're grading on a curve. Maybe I'm a harsher grader. um he would be a D or an F for me. Um
25:41because like you said, it's just the the league winning upside isn't there. The top three upside isn't there. And you know, we are looking at baseball ADP and
25:49and we're saying this is you know, four start sit league. So maybe that that plays a role in it where again you you
25:54look at Chris's projections. Um yeah, he should maybe meet or slightly exceed expectations. And you look at his track record over the years, you can see why.
26:042019 QB3 by fantasy points per game. Uh 2020 QB1, I mean, he only played four games, so I don't know how much you want
26:12to count that, but 2021 QB9, 2022 QB6, 2023 QB4, 2024, don't worry about it.
26:19Last year, QB9. Um, and so yeah, he's just kind of like maybe the best high floor quarterback in fantasy. Um, but that's not what wins
26:30championships at the end of the day. So, uh, yeah, I think this is awful ADP for a guy who, um, doesn't have the ceiling
26:39that we want when there's we're about to see it. There's plenty of quarterbacks going after him who have a much higher
26:46ceiling and to me a very similar floor.
26:50And so we're going to talk about one of those quarterbacks. Next up, QB9 by ADP.
26:56My Exodia runner up last year, Justin Herbert. What are your thoughts, Ryan?
27:02>> Yeah, I'm much more open to like a Justin Herbert top two season than I am a Dak Prescott. Uh Herbert has the
27:12rushing. He ran way more than anybody remembers last year. Uh ju just to rattle some off, he ranked first in scramble yards ahead of Drake May. Uh he
27:23was tied for fifth in total rush attempts ahead of Caleb Williams. So he he's like at or maybe arguably even a
27:31small step above basically every QB from a rushing perspective outside of the Josh Allens, the Jaylen Herz, the Jaden Daniels, the guys with like the locked
27:40in design rushing goal line role. I don't think we're getting that with Herbert, but we're certainly getting really good scrambling. Uh, he's been
27:47one of the most efficient.
27:49>> Yeah, go for it.
27:49>> I just got a good stat. Over the last two years, Drake May averages only 0.01 more rushing attempts per game and just
27:581.2 more rushing yards per game. That was a that was quite the surprising stat to me.
28:04>> Yeah. No, it's a it's a crazy stat. He he just runs way more than anybody thinks about him in terms of
28:10>> remembers. Yeah. It's like, >> yeah, [laughter] it's like a weird mind.
28:14Yeah. Like brain thing that we all just forgot for whatever reason.
28:18>> It's like Baronstein Bears. Baronstein Bears. One of those. Whatever that's called.
28:22>> Exactly. It's the Yeah, I that it is lost on me right now. I forget what that's called. But yes. Uh anyways,
28:28Justin Herbert, really good rusher.
28:31Better than you remember. Uh also the efficiency could just be amazing. The Mandela effect. Thank you, Producer Trey. Uh the efficiency could just be
28:42absurd this year, right? We get Mike McDaniel coming over from the Chargers.
28:47Uh I have talked about in recent years that basically all of the best values at the quarterback position have been in
28:55these Mick Shanahan offenses, the Kyle Shanahan or the Shawn McVey coaching tree. Mike McDaniel from that. Of course, we look back at what McDaniel
29:04has done with Tuatunga Vioa. Uh just the last time he had like an okay offensive line, Tua led the league in passing
29:12yards, ranked second in adjusted net yards per attempt. Uh since McDaniel arrived in Miami, Tua ranks I I believe it's fifth in adjusted net yards per
29:22attempt. This is Tua Tonga Valoa that we're talking about like concussion guy uh like on a crappy contract where he has to compete with Michael Penn now
29:32like the NFL is telling you effectively that this was all McDaniel. this was not uh Tua that was like creating these
29:41insanely efficient seasons. So, that's something to get excited about for Herbert. Another exciting thing to get excited about is the offensive line play
29:49should be much improved this year. He's getting both of his starting tackles back. Uh there's a million versions of this split, but if you just look at
30:00games where Joe Alt played uh like over half the snaps. Uh that was four games last year. Herbert averaged over 22
30:09fantasy points per game would have been behind only Josh Allen. Uh and his EPA per drop back in that sample would have
30:16led every quarterback over the past five years. Uh Scott has said that he thinks he would have won MVP if his offensive
30:24line stayed healthy. I have trouble disagreeing. You're getting Herbert at like a lower end QB1 type of cost with a massive upgrade at offensive play
30:34caller. Uh he is still this like physical clone of Josh Allen. Uh- which I I know was Scott's favorite thing to
30:42say last year when he was debating whether to make him Exodia. I think Harverbert's a really strong contender uh for Exodia this year. I'm much more
30:50convinced by him than I ever was last year. I know we went back and forth a lot last year uh on whether Herbert
30:56actually had the upside. I think he does this year. I'm just much more excited about the offense. So, yeah, tell tell
31:03me your thoughts, Scott. But I I would have Herbert the highest of anybody we've put on this tier list so far. I I
31:09I think he makes my I have a couple guys that I know are going in the S tier, so we'll put Herbert in the A tier, but
31:17he's going to be ahead of Jaylen Herz for me. I prefer him as a value.
31:20>> Wow. Yeah. So, I I I agree with you on the um so this is like a rich rebar line is
31:31hey, we always want to bet on Mick Shanahan quarterbacks, right? Well, this is easily the best quarterback a Mick Shanahan has ever called plays for. What
31:39is gonna happen? Is does he just go absolutely nuclear? Um, I'm with you in that camp. I've I've debated vigorously with Brett on this.
31:50Brett thinks this is actually a negative for him. He thinks Greg Roman was great for him. uh you know the mobile
31:56quarterback whisperer and we did see Justin Herbert run a little bit more but uh Mike McDaniel a run game coord co co
32:03co co co co co co co co co co co co co co co co co coordinator a guy who loves
32:05to pound the rock a guy who loves to run the ball um but you know as we did talk about Ryan is efficiency matters more
32:11than drop back volume uh so there's that but yeah I think it really comes down to this offensive line thing is yeah you
32:19could pull up the tweet um I I did the graphics where it's in games with Joe Alt. He was the overall QB1 by fantasy
32:28points per game. Uh this is games that Alt played over 10 snaps, 23.7 fantasy points per game. Efficiency numbers through the roof through the or as as
32:38Ryan would say, through the rough. Um uh but yeah, it's it's not just that he lost his Pro Bowl tackle Joe Alt, he
32:46also lost his other Pro Bowl tackle, Rashawn Slater, and the guys in the interior were an absolute mess. Uh, and so yeah, like it's really hard for any
32:56quarterback to function like this. I will say when I was traveling in New Jersey for a wedding, the second I landed, I placed two bets, guys. I
33:05placed Justin Herbert to win MVP and I placed Chargers to win the Super Bowl.
33:11Um, because yeah, I'm such a believer in Mike McDaniel. I'm a believer in Justin Herbert's talent. I'm a believer in the
33:17supporting cast, which I really like.
33:19Um, any S tier, A tier, what what was your final ruling Ryan?
33:26>> Yeah, I said top of A tier. I Scott, I do have to ask if if memory serves, your two bets last year when you traveled to
33:32New Jersey were Drake May MVP and Travis Hunter MVP. Is am I right in that it was something something along those lines?
33:40>> I think so. I I tr I actually drove with my wife to Louisiana to place those Travis Hunter bets, which
33:45>> Okay.
33:46>> which was a fun time. Uh, [laughter] you know, so we we got some uh we got some Cajun food, but uh you know, maybe not
33:53the the smartest. It was 300 to one, so there was that. And and you know, I had just won a bunch of money on him winning
33:59Heisman, so it was a technically a free roll.
34:04>> Are we on to the next quarter? I just want to say one more thing on the >> Yeah, I just want to say one more thing
34:09on the Mcshanahan quarterbacks because it this will kind of apply as we continue talking about them and I may as well get it out of the way now just to
34:16show my work on this a little bit. If you want to pull the tweet up, Trey, uh basically if you look at ADP
34:23expectation, so the fantasy points like uh that a player will likely score on average based on where they're drafted.
34:32All of the biggest like overperforming seasons, like the best values, these leaguewinning late round quarterbacks, almost all of them have come out of
34:41these Mick Shanahan offenses. Uh we just added Matt Stafford and Trevor Lawrence and Brock Perie to that list last year.
34:48Uh it's six out of these top nine on the screen right now. Uh just overall over the last two years, you have a 22% rate
34:58of hitting five plus fantasy points per game over expectation. If you blindly draft a Mick Shanahan quarterback after the top 100 in ADP, that falls to 7% for
35:08the non MC Shanahan quarterbacks. And everyone on this list that isn't M Shanahan is a Konami Code elite rushing quarterback or or at least a good
35:17scrambling quarterback that scores a lot of rushing touchdowns as well uh with Trevor Lawrence. So that this really is what we're looking at there. I can't
35:25like overstate the importance of offensive system uh as we go through these guys. And that that really is the biggest thing with Herbert for me. But
35:34yeah, we can move on to the next guy if you want, Scott.
35:38>> Yeah, next guy. QB10 by ADP, Trevor Lawrence. And as we all know, you know, I've been a longtime Trevor Lawrence
35:45hater. I'm like, you know, every year they're telling me it's it's going to be the breakout. And every year, lo and
35:53behold, it's worse efficiency than Derek Carr. It's, you know, like a bottom 10 quarterback. Uh, and no, it was it was
36:03halfway through year five. That was the breakout year. He looked legitimately incredible. What are your thoughts on Trevor Lawrence at QB 1080p?
36:14>> Yeah, I like the comparison you made earlier to Caleb Williams. I think it's a very similar bet. They probably should
36:19be valued similar similarly. Uh you get the scrambling from both of them. Uh with Lawrence, you also get the efficient offense with Liam Cohen. Uh
36:30his Liam Con's fantasy points per drop back over the past five years, I I believe ranks second best of any active
36:37offensive play caller. Uh he's like he's like been just a cut above even all the most of these other like Shanahan and
36:45McVey Tree coordinators. So, that's what it would come down to for me if I were drafting Trevor Lawrence is is just an
36:51overwhelming belief in Liam Conn. Uh, but I I don't know. I I think similarly with Caleb, like you can tell the story
36:59of a top three finish, but I would push it even later. Like, we can we can go a few more spots down in ADP uh to where I
37:07think there are some ceilings that I think are as good or that I prefer. So, we can put Lawrence at a B. I don't
37:14know. Maybe we do need to like spread out my rankings just that maybe I need to be more willing to say like an ADP is
37:20bad like Scott always is. Uh but yeah, we can put him in B for now. Maybe we adjust all these at the end, but yeah.
37:28>> All right. Where do you think I have him as a known Trevor Lawrence hater?
37:34>> Yeah, I'm going to guess you have him Well, if Caleb Williams is an F, you probably have Lawrence as like
37:41a C or a D would be my guess. I think I think Lawrence is much closer to S tier than he is Btier. That's where I stand
37:49on Trevor Lawrence. You you look at what he did last year.
37:52>> Uh he was Fantasy's overall QB1 over the last 14 seven four weeks of the season. Uh last
38:0214 weeks of the season, 23.1 fantasy points per game. That was 1.7 more than Josh Allen. Last seven weeks of the
38:08season, 26.4. That was 9.1 more than Josh Allen. over the last four weeks, 30.7. That was 16.8 more than Josh Allen. After the the team's bye-week, he
38:20finished as a fantasy QB1 in eight of 10 games, finished top seven in six of his last seven. Dude, he looked incredible.
38:27I'm a I'm a massive believer in Liam Cohen, as I know you are. And here's the thing a lot of people are missing is
38:33like this is a Konami code quarterback to me. This isn't from a a yardage standpoint, like a scramble standpoint, but like here's an
38:44absolutely freaking wild stat for you is over the last four seasons, um, Trevor Lawrence ranks third in rushing
38:53touchdowns. It goes Jaylen Herz, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, he has seven more rushing touchdowns than Lamar Jackson over that span. And hey, rushing
39:03touchdowns are worth a lot. And so, yeah, when I said he's basically Caleb Williams to me, that was that was that
39:10was a knock on Caleb, but it was also like a massive it's like why isn't Trevor priced where Caleb is right now?
39:16Because like this is something you and I talk about is like what are the offenses that really define a season? And you and
39:22I both have Chicago and Jacksonville all the way up there where like you and I are losing sleep over Coulson Lovelin,
39:30Luther Burton, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr. like we know there's going to be a mega league winner there and it's just like you can we guess the the right
39:41guy. Well, it's like it's the the syrup over pancakes theory with well the quarterback is is the one getting all the Parker Washington points and all the
39:50BTJ points. But yeah, uh [clears throat] certainly certainly really I mean he he just did it last year, you know, so I
39:58think it finally clicked for him and I think like with Caleb, it's something better than an impossible to fail setup.
40:04It's it's almost an impossible to not be great setup uh for who a quarterback who like all the [ __ ] I've given Trevor over
40:10the years like um I think he's a better quarterback than Caleb Williams is right now.
40:17>> Did I sway you at all? Yeah, I think I would ag you swayed me a little bit.
40:21Yeah, I I'd agree with most of what you said. I I think more like what's keeping him out of the higher tiers for me is
40:30that there there are just Well, there there's exactly two guys that I that are cheaper than him that I like more that I
40:37think have similar ceilings uh that you can make similar arguments for to what you just made. Uh but I yeah, I'm
40:44certainly open to it. Like I I do think there's Yeah, there there's like a temptation to say the Bears and the
40:52Jaguars are the two hardest teams to project in terms of just splitting up the targets and the workload and everything, but no matter what way you
40:59split it, I if we think it's going to be very good for the quarterback where it it all flows through them. So yeah, I I
41:06can hear that for sure. Um I'm I think I'm still happy with my B ranking. I I think I still prefer Herz and Herbert,
41:13but that Yeah, that's pretty compelling.
41:16>> Yeah, I I will say Trevor versus Herbert is very tough for me. That's going to be and and like that's another offense, you
41:22know, we we can really bank on taking a big step forward. Like I said, MVP, right? So, um you know, maybe Trevor
41:28Lawrence is more rushing touchdown upside. Is it is it enough to give him over the edge of my MVP pick? You're
41:34going to have to stay tuned, listen to the draft guide or read the draft guide.
41:39Uh, back to these ADP rankings. Trevor Lawrence was QB10, QB11. Patrick Mahomes, uh, one of the best quarterbacks ever. Uh, I think he
41:50finished top five last year by fantasy points per game. Where do you have this one?
41:57>> This one's going to be pretty far down the list for me. Uh, I do not have that much interest in Momes in fantasy. I
42:04haven't for years really. uh he had a bit of a resurgence last year just because the Chiefs were fighting to make
42:11the playoffs and so playoff Mahomes came out a little bit where he just tends to run and scramble more when he he like
42:18really needs to win games. Uh and we we did see that and he led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game on scrambles.
42:27Uh that was like a solid one to two points per game, what ahead of what he usually averages on scrambles the past
42:33handful of years. And I do think that's kind of explanatory uh just of why he had a better fantasy season than we've seen from him since I
42:41I think it was 2021 was the last time that he was even close to like a top five, top six fantasy quarterback by
42:48fantasy points per game. Uh but now it's like he's coming off a lower body injury. Uh we typically see guys run
42:57scramble less coming off of that stuff.
43:00Uh Ibes in terms of the pass catchers are not amazing to me. Rasheed Rice having to rehab while in prison. Uh
43:09they've not made like any big additions for the receiving core. I I really thought the Chiefs were going to draft a
43:15wide receiver highly this off seasonason and they they elected not to do so.
43:20Instead, they uh decide to pay Ken Walker and think that that can kind of balance out their offense. Uh and and
43:27that it might in terms of real life uh just leading to success. Walker creates explosive plays. We're big Ken Walker fans here. Uh but in terms of like
43:36juicing Patrick Mahomes fantasy numbers, I I don't think that that approach is likely to give us amazing fantasy upside. So like if the I if they're not
43:46like just completely pass first uh highest P row in the league or top two as they've been like basically every season anymore. And if the scrambling's
43:56not there for Mahomes anymore, like what really is there left in fantasy football? Uh there there's nobody here that that's like routing guys up,
44:05winning one-on-one. Uh like Rashe Rice does his PPR scam thing, which is awesome for fantasy. We love it. But it's not necessarily like creating an
44:15explosive offense for for the Chiefs that's going to make Patrick Mahomes be top two in the league in passing touchdowns or anything like that. So
44:23yeah, I I am just I I'm super out on Mahomes. Like I I guess you can make like best ball arguments for stacking or
44:32whatever, but in managed reddraft I I just have no interest in him compared to most of the guys that we're going to
44:38talk about after him. Uh so he I guess that's an F is what it sounds like to me.
44:44>> Uh yeah, that that works for me. Chuck Chuck Bass, you know, after he lost Matt Nai, I'm out. [laughter] Um I hey that's
44:52that's a good argument for for Patrick Mahomes. But yeah, I mean he he didn't it's it's been years since he finished
44:59top 10 at the position in fantasy points per game. He did it last year, but he had twice as many rushing fantasy points
45:06per game as his career average. Every injury expert is telling me he's not running this year. So Ryan Heath says F
45:13tier. I have no issue with that whatsoever. Uh, our next quarterback is going to be, I imagine, a divisive one.
45:21Ryan um and that's Jackson Dart at QB12 ADP.
45:27What are your unblenmished thoughts on Jackson Dart? Unb Dart. Let's hear it.
45:38>> I see the vision with Dart, obviously.
45:40Uh like when you think about classic signs of the Exodia quarterback that you've just hit on over and over and over again, very often it's a
45:50quarterback going into year two uh who ran a lot as a rookie and and is has the Konami code upside. Uh and that Jackson
45:58Dart certainly fits both of those descriptors.
46:02uh at QB12, I think the cost is reasonable enough to want to make that type of upside bet. Uh but I I'm not
46:12like completely sold on it. Uh and that's for a couple reasons. Uh one is just like the Giants of it all. Like
46:22it's hard for me to I I understand he did it last year was over 22 fantasy points per start uh with an offense that
46:31was roughly as down bad in terms of personnel uh arguably in terms of play calling. Uh but it it's just really hard
46:40for me to envision a a quarterback in that bad of an offense with that few weapons with Malik Neighbors probably starting the year on pup or worse. like
46:49it it seems like the news just gets worse with neighbors every single week.
46:53I I Yeah, I I don't know. I just have trouble envisioning the efficient offense part of it. I think the rushing
47:00will be there most likely. My one like possibly negative note on that is that Matt Naggie has basically never let a
47:09quarterback run at the goal line very much and he has coached Mitchell Trabiscy and Justin Fields. Uh Fields in 2021 had his lowest rate of inside the
47:20five carries uh of his career by a ton.
47:23It was like 7% that year that Naggie coached Fields and it has gone up to 35% over the rest of Fields' career, which
47:31is like where the Josh Allens and the Jaylen Herzes and all these elite like fantasy rushing goal line quarterbacks are. So no, like no QB has ever had that
47:43type of role with Naggie. He just love he loved giving it to David Montgomery at the goal line. I have a feeling he's
47:48going to love giving it to Cam Scataboo at the goal line anytime they get there.
47:52So yeah, I I think like my concerns are priced in to QB12 ADP, but I it's not like so overwhelmingly obvious to me
48:00that Dart should be the Exodia this year. Uh I I would put him >> I I guess I'll put him real quick. Yeah.
48:10>> B tier.
48:12Yeah, B like B or A tier kind of on the edge of that. Certainly ahead of Trevor Lawrence for me.
48:18>> Okay. Um can you just remind the listeners how bad Matt Nai is?
48:24Yeah, I mean if you there there's so many ways to look at this, but uh Matt Ngi every each of the past two times
48:33that he's entered the year uh as a team's offensive play caller, he has given up those duties midseason. uh by adjusted net yards per attempt, by
48:43fantasy points per drop back, by like any efficiency stat, he is the worst play caller of any of any like 2026
48:51active play caller over the last 5 years. Uh Patrick Mahomes's efficiency has very notably like gone up and declined just based on whether Matt Naggie is
49:02anywhere near the team. He's always been better uh without Naggie around. So yeah, there there's just a lot of reasons to think Naggie can just be a
49:13complete anchor on this entire offense.
49:15That's kind of what I'm grappling with more than anything else. Uh maybe you can make an argument for if he gets
49:21fired mid-season, then that's when the uh Jackson Dart and the Giants upside comes in, but that that's a little scary to me uh to to bank on a first year
49:31offensive coordinator getting fired like as part of our upside case. But that these are like the things you have to think about legitimately with the Giants
49:37this year.
49:39>> Yeah. So, let me make the pro argument I think a little bit better than you did with Jackson Dart is if you just throw
49:45out the Vikings game, which was a really weird game. They they they lost Andrew Thomas early in that game and it seems
49:51like they would just like were like, "Yeah, we're going to hope that um Zach Wilson throws or JJ McCarthy throws more
50:00inter uh pick sixes than our quarterback throws passing touchdowns." It was something like he had three times as many runs to every pass in that game.
50:09But if you just take out that one Vikings game, Jackson Dart averaged 22.5 fantasy points per start. that would have led all quarterbacks. That would
50:18have been more than Josh Allen. Um, yeah, he only attempted 13 passes in that game. And so, he did this without
50:24his star wide receiver. I know the vibes aren't great on Malik Neighbors, but he's probably going to play more than the 25 snaps he played with Jackson Dart
50:32last year. Um, Dart also, you know, again, Konami code, he averaged 9.3 rushing fantasy points per start with that Vikings game excluded. That's more
50:42than Josh Allen has had in any season of his career. I was just talking with Dan Dugen about this. He was like, "No, no,
50:48no. This that's not going away." I know he was constantly in the blue medical tent, but they're not going to shy away
50:53from that. Um, you know, and Jackson Dart himself keeps having these quotes that are like, "Hey, you know, I I'm I'm
50:58not Kirk Cousins. I I'm not Joe Flacco.
51:00I'm a runner." And so, uh, I look at this QB12 ADP and I see a tremendous value. I see a ton of upside for a
51:09player I really have a ton of belief in.
51:11Like, I I thought what he did was remarkable. Um, I did not think the Giants should stick with Sha Joe Shane
51:19and and move on from Brian Dable. It's just risky to me with a quarterback who looked as good as he did in year one.
51:25Um, but I mean like that's that's a real question. It's like, hey, is was Brian does Brian Dable really deserve a lot of
51:32credit? I know we're worried about Matt Nai, but it's like look at what Daniel Jones did with Dable and then did with
51:37without. Maybe it was just Jackson Dart, you know, rising above, you know, this really bottom three supporting cast with all the time that Andrew Thomas missed,
51:46with all the time that Malik Neighbors missed, uh, freaking Bondale Robinson, who, you know, I hate and think stinks, was like the only guy, the only body.
51:54And so, so much of this really comes down to is he Matt Nai proof? Is Matt Ngi really the worst offensive play
52:03caller of all time? And there's like legitimate evidence to suggest that he is um he does have Greg Roman as the
52:10unofficial run game coordinator who has a ton of OC experience particularly with hyper mobile quarterbacks. Like I would I would be s here tier if if Gre if Greg
52:20Roman were the play caller tomorrow. He also has Brian Callahan as the pass game coordinator. So there's some smart people in the room. Jim Harbaugh too and
52:30you know maybe something to fall back on but like like Matt Nai just screwing this up is is a real consideration that
52:38haunts me. So this is how I'm thinking about it. Again, we're not I'm not naming my Exodia quarterback on this show. You don't get that for free, but
52:46uh we're going to talk it out and we're going to get to hear who Ryan thinks I should have as my Exodia quarterback.
52:52And maybe it's this next one. It's it's a guy you and I are always, you know, waving the pompoms for, and that's Brock
53:00Perie at QB 13 by ADP.
53:04>> Yeah, I think Perie is the best candidate so far that we've discussed.
53:09He I'm gonna I'm gonna rank him in the SC.
53:11>> He doesn't run. What? He doesn't run.
53:14>> Yes, he does. He's He's one of the He's one of the He's like a really good scrambler. He's like a touch below
53:20Justin Herbert and Drake May and those guys, but he he does it enough compared to >> uh like like a Bon Knicks or like Yeah.
53:28guys like kind of in that range. He scrambles enough to me where it it's Yeah, it it's he's not just a pure
53:34pocket passer. Uh it hasn't mattered in terms of fantasy points per drop back over the last three seasons. It's the top five is Brock Pery and then Lamar
53:45Jackson, Josh Allen, Jart.
53:49It's all it's pretty and all the runners like he what to whatever extent he doesn't run as much as these guys. He
53:54just makes up for it in pure efficiency and scoring. Uh it's the ultimate Shanahan offense. Of course, it's it is literally Kyle Shanahan. He's top five
54:05by every single efficiency metric over the last three years. EPA per drop back.
54:11He leads uh fantasy points per opportunity. He's top three fantasy points per game. Like all of these, he's just top five, top six. And yet every
54:21year ADP just treats him as this fringe like high-end QB2 and it never really makes sense. Uh all the McShan stuff
54:31that we we were talking about obviously applies to him. He averaged over 30 fantasy points per game in the fantasy playoffs last year. Uh that was behind
54:40only Trevor Lawrence by the way. So may maybe another like upside argument for Trevor Lawrence to throw gas on that fire. Uh he he has as many 25 point
54:49games as Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert over the past three years. Like I I don't know. Perie to me is just when
54:57he's on the field he is scrambling enough to be a high-end fantasy QB1. The offense is always awesome. Uh adds Mike
55:06Evans this year. the best wide receiver that Kyle Shanahan has had since prime, Julio Jones. The news and what just the
55:14vibes on George KD are generally good in terms of it sounds like maybe he'll return earlier than I would have expected. They're they're saying week
55:22one. I don't know if I believe that, but if he gets KD for a lot of the season, that's a huge massive win. If you just
55:28look at the 49ers offensive splits just over KD's career in terms of what he means to that offense, like I just all
55:36the pieces are here to me for Party to just continue being a top three, top four fantasy quarterback. He goes later
55:45than all of these guys we've talked about. Uh yeah, I I he's like he'd be like bottom of S tier for me, but I I
55:52feel really really good about him.
55:57>> S tier. That's what we're going with.
56:01>> That's what I'm saying.
56:03>> All right. All right. Uh, hey, let it be known Fantasy Points will forever be a pro Brock party website.
56:12Um, I feel like I'm perpetually. So, I I don't think he's S tier. I don't think he has that. I mean, maybe he does. I
56:19think like great ADP beater for sure.
56:23like best baseball like guaranteed to smash this ADP. Um, does he have the overall QB1 upside to to warrant S tier?
56:32I think probably not. But let me just make, you know, my proargument for Brock Pury. I feel like I'm perpetually 1.5
56:41beers away from saying that Joe Burrow is just Brock Party with better PR because if you look at the statistics, that's true. I know that sounds like an
56:52insane take, but if you look at the statistics, that's absolutely true.
56:56Since 2023, here are the leaders in fantasy points per game. One, Josh Allen. Two, Lamar Jackson. Three, Jaylen Herz, four, Jaden Daniels. All the guys
57:05who run, five, Brock Perie, six, Joe Burrow, so he's ahead of Joe Burrow.
57:10Over the last two years, over the last three years, Brock Party leads in EPA per dropback. Uh if you look at any of
57:17the advanced metrics, uh he smashes Joe Burrow, he smashes Patrick Mahomes and just about everything except Mahomes wins in pressure to sack. Joe Burrow
57:27wins in accuracy, but you know, Pertie's second place in in those stats. Um and yeah, it's it's it's also like let's not
57:35forget he's kind of been dealt with a raw hand. Like we the jokes we make about the nuclear reactor next to San
57:43Francisco's practice field. Um, but it's like how awful they've run with injury luck is is legitimately insane. Over the last three years, Brock Pury, CMC,
57:54George KD, and Trent Williams have been on the field together for only 28.5% of San Francisco snaps. We're not even talking about Debo Samuel, Brandon
58:03Iayuk, Ricky Pearaw, just the core four.
58:07And on those plays, San Francisco averages 0.3 EPA per play. New England last year led the league with 0.13. Like it's it's
58:18just insane how potent and deadly this offense is and can be when it's firing on all cylinders and everyone's healthy.
58:26So even if I I probably disagree with the s here, like let it be known like I am I am such a Brock Pury fan and yeah
58:33it's what did I say? It's why would I take Caleb here when I could take Trevor Lawrence with this pick? Why would I
58:39take Joe Burrow at that pick when I could take Brock Pury here? I wouldn't I I'm I you know, Joe Burrow would be D or
58:46F tier for me. Um and Jackson Dart, by the way, maybe he's maybe he's a white Jaylen Herz, too. That's that's that's
58:53something I like making those comps. Uh because that's really kind of the the way to think about it is you're always
58:58looking for these arbitrage opportunities. And I legitimately think that's a great one is um Joe Burrow versus Brock Perie, especially in these
59:08basketball leagues where where stacks matter. And so the next quarterback on this list I think is another one we might be fighting about. That's Bo
59:17Knicks at QB14 by ADP.
59:22>> Yeah, I'm extremely into Nicks as well.
59:26uh for some similar reasons to Brock Pury, but I think the most natural comparison is kind of Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence like the these
59:36quarterbacks uh where the scrambling is there has been there uh in Knicks has 5.3 rush attempts per game uh over the
59:47past two years about 20 scramble yards per game.
59:51That's top 11 including the postseason.
59:54he runs like enough to where I think he's in consideration.
59:58Uh but the biggest thing for Knicks is I think the drop back volume will be very strong and I think the efficiency could
60:06also become very strong for him in year three or there's at least a world where that happens. I in ter just I understand
60:14that when you watch Bo Nicks it does not scream like wow this is an an amazing quarterback that is super pleasing to my
60:21eyes right now. I am with everybody who thinks that. But like by the stats, Boon Knicks has been a really really good
60:29quarterback through the first two years of his career. And you you can credit all of that to Shawn Peyton. I don't
60:34really care how you allocate the credit out for that. Uh but yeah, Nick's over the past five years is is first of 58
60:42quarterbacks in pressure to sack ratio.
60:45He's on a top six list with a bunch of Hall of Famers, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, right? uh by EPA per
60:52drop back through an initial two seasons. He is fourth uh since the 2021 rookie class behind only party, Drake May, Jaden Daniels, all these guys that
61:02go much earlier for the most part, right? Uh Knicks averages over 19 fantasy points per game uh across his 36 career starts. It wouldn't take that
61:14much. It would take Jaylen Wadd coming in as finally like a kind of speedy number one weapon. uh more so than just
61:21a Courtland Sutton going and winning on the boundary. It would take Knicks to like just get a little bit better at
61:28playing the quarterback position. And all of it could kind of click. We we've heard uh Davis Webb, who's going to be
61:34the Broncos new play caller, say that he wants to be really uptempo. Uh just giving us more reasons to think the drop
61:41back volume could be really strong for Knicks. I think just in this system there are a lot there are outs to Nicks
61:49finishing a as a top four top five quarterback uh at a later ADP with a just a good amount of scrambling a ton
61:56of efficiency. I I'm like yeah I'm into the idea I guess is what I'm saying. Um does he quite get to like Brock Pury for
62:06me? Probably not. I think he's going to be in the eight tier. Uh maybe right behind Jaylen Herz. Uh or no, I'll put
62:14him behind Herbert as well. So yeah, A tier, end of A tier for me. I but I'm I'm very open to it, I guess, is where
62:20I'm at with Nicks. And I I don't think you are really at all.
62:25Um I think he's tricky. Um yeah, so I don't think he's very good.
62:32Like if you look at the stats and you could pull this up, Trey, over the last two years, just the efficiency has been
62:38pretty awful, but like it hasn't mattered, you know, like he he led the league in drop backs last year. He finished eighth in fantasy points per
62:46game as a rookie and he finished 11th last year. And so the argument is like, all right, well, if instead of being
62:52bottom seven in accuracy metrics, what if he's middle of the pack? What if he's better? So, the same argument we made
62:59with Caleb Williams. And why wouldn't he be better? You know, you're adding adding Jaylen Wadd to this offense. I just said he led the league in drop
63:07backs last year. Well, this new offensive play caller is coming in and he wants to be even faster by pace of
63:14play. And so, uh, that's that's a, you know, pretty great advantage to a guy who's shown his floors somewhere around low-end QB1. And I'm just like a
63:24tremendous massive Shawn Payeyton. uh fan and believer. You look at his track record over the years, just about every quarterback he's had has, you know, been
63:34QB1 or better. Uh you know, Wash, Drew Brees, who couldn't throw farther than 15 yards downfield. Uh Russell Wilson, Trevor Simeon, Jameus Winston, Teddy
63:45Bridgewwater, all guys who are lower caliber talents compared to Bo Nicks, uh who were averaging 17 plus fantasy points per game with Shawn Payeyton. So
63:56yeah, I mean you just have like a confluence of factors here. You have the upgraded supporting cast. You have a new
64:03offensive play caller wanting to push the pace of play. You have a guy who runs enough. Um and so yeah, I I think
64:10he's going to beat this ADP. I don't think he has, you know, the upside really to get me excited about him, but
64:18um so I would have had him lower in my tiers, but you know, certainly not mad at him either. Um, I think we can just
64:25like disregard ADP for the remainder of the show and just handpick out our two late round favorites. And I'm guessing we have the same two late round
64:36favorites. Uh, so Ryan, uh, what are your thoughts on Kyler Murray?
64:44>> Yeah, I'm I I'll be honest. I'm a little afraid that this is where I'm at in the year 2026. It wasn't on my bingo card or
64:54whatever they say. But yeah, I think Kyler Murray is would be my number one Exodia candidate right now if I got to choose who who the
65:04Exodia QB was. Uh he he just hits both of our two biggest factors that we care about the most for late round
65:11quarterbacks, which is does he run? Is he in a M Shanahan offense? He hits both points. Uh, I feel like every year with
65:21Murray since he tours ACL in 2022, like every offseason it it's just been, okay, let's grind all these interviews to see
65:29if this is the year that Kyler starts to run again. Uh, and we I had kind of given up on that by last year, even
65:36though he was saying that he was going to run again, that he wanted to run more. Uh and and that is what happened
65:42in the admittedly like the whatever it was like the five or the six game sample that we got of Kyler uh before he was
65:50what whatever softbenched injured shut down what have you. Uh yeah, he hit uh career highs at least since that 2022 season in rush attempts per game in
66:01rushing yards per game. Uh second in scramble fantasy points per game or ti or tied with Josh Allen for second in
66:07scramble fantasy points per game. he was up there with on a per game basis with the league's elite rush rushing QBs and
66:15just in terms of output. Uh and then we get him on the Vikings uh in this Kevin Oonnell offense where every quarterback
66:26that has passed through Minnesota save for uh JJ McCarthy and I guess Max Rosemer uh has been at minimum solid for
66:36fantasy, right? I just looking at Carson Wentz, Nick Mullins, and Josh Dobs have averaged 18 fantasy points per game across 12 games in this Kevin Oonnell
66:47offense. Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, of course, hit even bigger heights. And yeah, Kyler runs more than any of these guys uh that I just mentioned. Uh with
66:59Kevin Oonnell, the biggest thing that you get is the pass rate in the red zone. He consistently ranks top two or
67:06top three every single season uh that he's been in Minnesota. He he just loves to throw in the red zone. Part of it is
67:12that they don't have much of a run game that it it seems like they want to rely on, but that that's great. That's kind
67:18of like the Matthew Stafford X factor from last year where he was just constantly throwing inside the five. I think we could get that with Kyler this
67:26year. Uh, and if he's dropping back and he can't find anyone, then he's scrambling in for the touchdown inside the five, which is even better. I Yeah,
67:35I I'm just really into this whole idea.
67:38It's going to be like a transition for Kyler. I don't think it's like a sure thing that this works. Um, but we
67:44haven't seen Kyler really play under center very much over his career, which he's probably going to need to do more for Okonnell. But we've seen in the
67:53sample we do have Kyler's efficiency go way up under center. uh as it does for a lot of quarterbacks. So, I there's at
67:59least enough reason for me to think that this could work out. I I I guess like arguments against it are a it it's Kyler
68:09Murray in the year 2026 like washed into a kind of prove it type do it do or die type of contract. Like are you still a
68:17starting QB in this league? Like there's certainly risk there. I don't think JJ McCarthy is coming anywhere close to ever winning this quarterback
68:24competition or anything like that. Uh, but there's like a world where the Vikings are out of it at the end of the
68:30year type of deal, I guess, if if all this doesn't work. Uh, but yeah, I think that's the exact type of bet I want to
68:39make on a late round quarterback where if it does, if it's clearly not working out for Kyler in the first three weeks,
68:46fine. You you cut bait, you play the waiver wire. Uh but if it does that it's clearly like top three quarterback
68:54upside to me. Uh yeah, just because of the rushing and because of what we've seen out of every everyone else save for
69:02the like bottom 10 percentiles of quarterback play uh in Okonnell's offense.
69:09>> And so this is an S tier for you.
69:12>> Yeah, this is an S tier. This is the highest of that I'm going to rank anybody. Should Yeah, should have
69:18finished with that as well.
69:19Yeah. Well, we didn't even say the ADP.
69:21The ADP is QB17. So, you might have the benefit this year of being able to draft uh two Exodia quarterbacks, right? You
69:29could go with a Purdy and a Kyler Murray. It sounds like that's what Ryan wants to do. And hey, if both hit, you
69:36could trade one of those for a running back or a wide receiver. Uh just some stats to help your argument. Since 20
69:43since he came into the league in 2019, only three quarterbacks average more fantasy points per game. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, QB17 by
69:52ADP. Uh my favorite, you know, uh rando to smash with Kevin Oonnell was Nick Mullins. Three starts with Kevin
70:01Oonnell, 303, 411, and 396 passing yards. You could also go with Josh Dobs, who like got off a plane on a Wednesday
70:10and then uh scored 27 fantasy points that Sunday, you know, as a backup. Um, my whole thing with Kyler, and I like
70:18this is real. This is 100% real, is that I think there's an effort issue. I think he's Gen Z's Jay Cutler. I don't think
70:28he cares about football. And uh, my evidence for this isn't that every year Call of Duty comes out in November and
70:36all of his numbers decline by 47%.
70:40It's really that, you know, let's not forget it's it's a lot of the quotes that have come out from players and
70:46coaches, players saying, you know, to to Richini, hey, you do not, trust me, you do not want Kyler on your team. That's
70:53not something you It's Brian Shottnimer, a head coach who said, "Yeah, you know, we wanted to Kyler to run, but he just
70:59wouldn't do that." Um, it's the fact that when he signed his extension, they put it in his contract that he had to
71:06study game film at least an hour a week and then he got bullied and he like took it out. But it's like why the heck would
71:12you put that in there unless he just doesn't get so but maybe this is an argument in his favor because the the
71:19talent was always there and now he's playing on a league minimum contract.
71:23He's hitting free agency next year so he wants to pull out all the slop stops. he wants to get his final payday. And so
71:30maybe we see uh you know Kyler Murray go nuclear uh where where the gaff is through the roof and it you know the talent's always been
71:38there and the the supporting cast and the play caller. So I like this. Um I have only one more late round target. Uh
71:50do you disagree? Is I think you know where I'm going with this. Is there anyone else you want to talk to talk
71:54about before we got there?
71:57Uh yeah, other than the guy you're about to bring up, I don't think there's anyone else like super worth considering in manage there. There's like best ball
72:05guys I like or whatever, but yeah, we're not talking about that today.
72:09>> Okay. Uh that's Malik Willis, uh QB2 by ADP. What are your thoughts? And this is another guy who might not be starting
72:16week one. Um I mean, he probably is. He most certainly is. But you you do have Quinn Eers getting a ton of hype. Uh, so
72:24you know, maybe 25% chance, 20% chance he's he's not start, but like that that's more than most and that's driving why the ADP is so low, but it's not
72:35something we care about. It's like, hey, if he's not starting week one, that's fine. We'll just cut him. It doesn't matter. Um, what are your thoughts on
72:41Malik Willis, Ryan Heath? And what's here >> for the for them not I'll say first for Malik Willis for them to not start in
72:49week one after they the contract that they gave him would be like inconceivable to me on a Dolphins team that is expected to win like two to
72:56three games this year. Like why why would you not just take every chance to see if that contract is anything like
73:03that there? I don't I don't buy any idea that you would be starting week one. Uh but yeah, I'm interested in Malik
73:10Willis. Uh I think he'll be in my A tier. Uh maybe exactly where that is will be influenced uh by like where this
73:19discussion goes. But if this were like 2020 or 2021 and it was still like the golden era of arguing about NFL
73:29analytics on the internet, uh you would hear way more about Malik Willis's EPA than I feel like we have at all this
73:37offseason.
73:38uh over just in terms of EPA per drop back last year or sorry over the past two seasons leads the NFL in EPA per
73:47dropback uh almost double that of Josh Allen over this time frame like 25% better than Lamar Jackson's 2024 amazing
73:57season by EPA per dropback. So yeah, when we've seen Willis uh in like a few starts in some partial games with the
74:05Packers, he has been electric. uh real life efficiency wise, right? Not not just as a rusher, but also even as a
74:13passer. So there there's like legit interesting kind of upside there in terms of how he's performed. Uh EPA has been actually surprisingly good at
74:23spotting actually good quarterbacks on these small samples. Uh we just had it on the screen, but the yeah, small sample years since 2021. it's Malik
74:31Willis and then it's Brock Party uh as a rookie and Sam Darnold with the Panthers in terms of the best small sample EPA
74:38per dropback numbers uh over the last handful years. So there's like a good uh like history of of this stat actually
74:46kind of mattering in the way that we would want to use it for Willis to say maybe he's actually a really good
74:50quarterback and he elevates this offense. Uh and then like the obviously the biggest thing with Willis is is just the rushing, right?
74:58uh leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per opportunity over the last two years. 23.6 fantasy points per start with the Packers.
75:10Uh 53% of his fantasy production came on designed runs. Like this guy is just like a fantasy football dream in terms
75:19of running the ball. The like biggest like drawbacks are a the Dolphins did not set this guy up for success in the
75:27offseason. I I cannot believe that an NFL team is going into this year with their projected top pass catchers being Malik Washington, Greg Doulich, and
75:38three guys that they drafted in round three or later. Like, what what are we doing? Uh he's this man's been left out
75:45to dry. All he has is Devon Achan as like a real receiving game weapon. Uh I think Achan's great. I don't think
75:52Achan's going to go line up at X or anything like that. So that that is like one uh downside. The other downside is
76:01just will there be enough play volume uh and passing volume for Willis to hit like elite fantasy numbers. Uh he has
76:12two games in his career above 20 pass attempts, a careerhigh of 23 pass attempts in a start. Uh we've got Bobby
76:21Slovic here calling the plays. uh he has reminded us throughout the summer that he is the run the damn ball guy. Uh of
76:29course he he would want to run the ball with this personnel. I I don't really blame him, but that just slows down the
76:34game, creates fewer plays, fewer drop backs. Like I that's like a something to consider, too. Uh, I think overall
76:44Willis makes a ton of sense as a like last round kind of dart throw at the quarterback position where yeah, maybe
76:54he's on waiverss by week two or week three, but the upside it on like a 10% chance that this Dolphins offense
77:02actually kind of works is he's just an instant top three fantasy quarterback.
77:07So, yeah, I I'm open to it. I don't think it's like the highest chance of hitting, but if it were to hit it, it
77:14would be like top three fantasy numbers in the range of outcomes.
77:19>> Tier it for me.
77:20>> Yeah, I think he's back of I think he's the back of A tier for me.
77:24>> Well, I think if Kyler's S tier, I I think Malik Willis is S tier as well.
77:28It's um it really reminds me so much of Justin Fields his sophomore season, the year I went in on him as my Exodia
77:37quarterback where it's like if he sucks at real football, he's still going to be like what a low-end QB1 at worst just
77:44because he runs so much. Uh and then like what if he's decent? What if he's okay? What if he's good? What if he's
77:50great? Um or what if he just runs that much more? you know, this, like you said, it's a team that's gonna win
77:57probably two games. The receivers all suck and so maybe he just runs even more. And so, like, yeah, it really reminds me of Justin Fields that year. I
78:05went in on him as my Exodia quarterback.
78:07He finished top five at the position in fantasy points per game. After the first month of the season, he was averaging
78:13like 27 fantasy points per game. If you just take out that first month or so, uh, yeah, I pulled up the the tweet I
78:20had. It's yeah, if you look at him, I know it's a small sample, but if you look at it by fantasy points per
78:25dropback, fantasy points per start, fantasy points per four quarters, it's like Supra Lamar levels of production.
78:32And I know it's a small sample. I know it's a much better supporting cast in Green Bay, but yeah, that gives you a
78:39hint at the upside for a guy who's basically free in drafts, QB2 by ADP. Um yeah, per four quarters he's basically
78:48running uh 64.3 rushing yards per four quarters. Lamar Jackson 56.2 over his career. And so it's kind of insane that
78:58with Kyler and with Malik Willis, you have these quarterbacks with legitimate overall QB1 upside. Even if Malik Willis sucks, he has that in his range of
79:08outcomes. He could be bottom five in pass rating and have that in his range of outcomes because of the hyper mobility. And maybe he's good. This is a
79:17guy that uh Brett Whitefield had an extremely high grade on coming out.
79:21Round one caliber quarterback according to him. And hey, he just got paid a bag.
79:26Like he's a round one caliber quarterback. So like you had Bo Nicks in in the A tier. I don't I don't see the
79:33overall QB1 upside uh that he has relative to some of these guys going much later. So, here's here's why you you stayed to the end, and I think this
79:43is a really important takeaway is everyone wants to hear my Exodia quarterback, right? A lot of people just pay money just to see who that is. That
79:51I there are guys who don't even play fantasy football anymore. They're just like, "Hey, I just I just want to know
79:55who it is." Um, and it what I'm going to tell you is it doesn't matter. Like I, you know, we always have to be Ryan and
80:03I pride ourselves on like honesty first and foremost and full transparency. And I'm telling you, it doesn't matter because look at how freaking deep this
80:10quarterback uh quarterback is this year and how tight it is among these guys where it's >> you could just throw a dart and hit on,
80:21you know, a guy who at worst is going to be like as good as everyone else. You know, it's like you're you're not going
80:27to be at a dis a disadvantage. like it's almost impossible because you know we're talking about Malik Willis and Kyler Murray. There are leagues where those
80:34guys are going undrafted and even if it's not them it's like hey well maybe we were wrong and maybe maybe Daniel
80:40Jones who you and I both really like from a baseball perspective ends up being a mid-range QB1 which is where he
80:46was before he got hurt. Uh and he's he's free off waiverss. So you have the safety net to fall back on and uh you
80:55you have upside there as well uh with potentially a Daniel Jones, a Kyler Murray, a Malik Willis. And so this is
81:02what we always talk about. This is what we'd let off the show with where anatomy of a league winner. It's it's positional
81:07value. It's positional scarcity. It's, you know, it's a 12 team league and there's 12 starting quarterbacks in your fantasy league, but there's 32 starting
81:17quarterbacks in the NFL. Whereas with the running back position, there's, I don't know, 30 fantasy starting running backs and there's 32 starting running
81:25backs in the NFL, but a lot of those guys are in committees or suck. And so the positional scarcity and it's also
81:32just typically the quarterback position.
81:34One, it's not very predictive outside of like Josh Allen, there's a lot of fluctuation.
81:40It is predictive in the later rounds where my Exodia hits every year. That's another reason I go. And so, and it's
81:46also scoring is relatively flat after the Josh Allens of the world. And so, all these things stack up is, you know,
81:54a lot of people dying to know my Exod Exodia quarterback. I'll just be I just don't think it matters a whole lot this
81:59year. And like that's what anatomy of a league winner backs up, but particularly this year, I can't remember so many options I could pick as my Exodia and
82:09feel good about. Um, do you agree with that Ryan?
82:14>> I'd agree. I but I guess my only addition there is that I I feel this way most years. I I think we were saying
82:21basically that last year as we were debating between Drake May and Justin Herbert and like a few other guys like there are just always a lot of good late
82:29options uh to to where not not only does it not matter that much which one you pick in a one quarterback league uh but
82:38it it's I think it's more important that you wait long enough to give yourself the upside outcome of I hit on my early
82:48wide receivers and running backs and I hit on my late round quarterback. That that that's like the optimal outcome compared to Yeah, you can draft um
83:00whatever Jaden Daniels as the QB3 or the QB4 uh and and maybe he has the Josh Allenesque season. Uh, but do do you
83:08prefer that to hit uh whatever JSN in round three or round four last year plus uh late round uh
83:19Matt Stafford or Brock Py or Trevor Lawrence or whatever. I I think you're always better off kind of arbitrageing that way. Uh so yeah, because of that
83:27it's it's much more that I'm going to be pushing this year is like just wait on the quarterbacks. I kind of messed
83:33around last year with like, oh, maybe it makes sense to uh take one of these elites early, but I I'm much more firmly
83:39in the camp now and going forward. I think that you you just need to wait just because there there are always so
83:44many good options.
83:45>> Yeah, the nerd alert just dropped a comment. I think Murray will flop S tier. L, sorry guys. Yeah, that's exactly the wrong way to be thinking
83:53about this is like I don't care if he flops. Like like the the bigger miss to me is drafting Bo Knicks
84:00QB14 and he finishes QB11. Like that that's not helping you win your championship. That's not helping you even win weeks. And and like that's a
84:10way bigger miss to me than if I drafted Kyler Murray much later and he's a flatout bust. He averages six fantasy
84:19points per game or he loses the starting job. That's fine. I can just quickly cut him. It's and that's why we need to
84:25chase upside. Uh that's why you need to read upside wins championship is an anatomy of a league winner. It's what is
84:32really driving championships at the end of the day. It's those power law outcomes. It's those at the quarterback position. You want overall QB1 upside.
84:42And if they don't have it, I'm crossing their name off my list. Um but anyway, I hope you enjoyed this. Uh what is it?
84:50School of Scott where you come when you want to get a PhD in fantasy football. I think that's always especially the case
84:57when Ryan Heath comes on. So Ryan, thank you for coming on today and thank you everyone else for tuning in. [music]
85:11That's him. That's the old chief.
85:17Hey [music]
