5 Players Your Leaguemates Are Getting TOTALLY WRONG in Fantasy Football in 2026!
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
21 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 23, 2026
Published
Thu, July 23, 2026
11
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersBrock PurdyDavid MontgomeryDK MetcalfJosh AllenKhalil HerbertLamar JacksonMark AndrewsMichael PittmanWoody MarksZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
NegativeValue19:03
Mentioned as a draft strategy option in the second round as part of an alternative build that starts with receivers, allowing for a stable of running backs starting with David Montgomery in the fourth round.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveValue0:39
Massively underpriced at QB12 ADP despite QB6 fantasy points per game over last three seasons; leads all QBs in yards per attempt and has maintained 7%+ TD rate in three of last four seasons; added Mike Evans as TD-making weapon; projected QB10 in season-long Fantasy Points projections; source views him as having significant ceiling in superflex and best ball leagues due to efficiency and volume upside; comparable upside argument to Joe Burrow as pocket QB drafted for TD efficiency; Niners shifting toward more balanced offense away from run-heavy approach.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue13:13
One of most underrated free-agent acquisitions this offseason, positioned for massive bell-cow upside in Houston Texans offense after being stuck behind Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit; over last three seasons, ranks behind only Derrick Henry in expected touchdown metric; even while splitting carries with Gibbs last year, was RB15 in red-zone carry rate at 62%; Texans implied to win 9.5 games (top-15 offense win equity), positioning Montgomery for positive game scripts with 15–18 carries and multiple touchdown upside; revamped Texans offensive line, healthy CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, and second-year receivers Jaylen Noel and Jaden Higgins create offense poised to leap; also capable receiver (50–54 receptions in past seasons, ~8–9 yards per reception), adding passing-game floor; should be Montgomery's backfield in full; makes sense in all team builds as RB2 option; going at end of fourth round or middle of fourth round in sharper formats; source is all in on Montgomery this season.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
NegativeRole4:17
Metcalf is characterized as the vertical threat and go/slant specialist in the Colts offense who dictates and draws significant coverage, while Pittman dominates in-breaking routes. The source ranks Pittman ahead of Metcalf in projections (WR32 vs. Metcalf's lower rank), suggesting Metcalf's role is more limited to vertical and slant concepts.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue19:03
Mentioned as a draft strategy option in the third round as part of an alternative build that starts with receivers and then adds a premium QB, allowing for a stable of running backs starting with David Montgomery in the fourth round.
Insight pageKhalil Herbert
PositiveBreakout20:30
The source highlights Khalil Herbert as a 'league-winning type player' in the fourth and fifth rounds, offering significant upside. Herbert is part of the source's strategy to target fourth and fifth round running backs with breakout potential, contrasted with David Montgomery's floor and touchdown scoring ability. The source is bullish on Herbert's ceiling in 2026.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection8:53
Jackson is healthy entering the season after a hamstring injury last year that left him diminished. Despite injury, he posted a 7% passing TD rate; his career rate is 6.5%, with upside to spike to 8.5–9%. His health directly amplifies Andrews' touchdown upside and offensive efficiency. Lamar Jackson is healthy heading into the season after being beat up with a hamstring injury last year and not performing at his best upon return. Despite the injury-plagued 2024, he maintained a 7% passing touchdown rate; his career rate is 6.5%, and he is capable of spiking to 8.5–9% in touchdown percentage in a healthy season, providing significant upside to his fantasy outlook.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveValue6:12
Completely mispriced at TE11 ADP; TE2 in expected touchdown metrics despite part-time role over last two seasons (TE22 in route share); with Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar departed, faces no route competition and should reclaim full-time status; source ranks him TE7 personally vs. TE11 ADP; Lamar Jackson's health (7% career passing TD rate, capable of 8.5–9%) amplifies touchdown upside; top-8 upside in range of outcomes with top-5 ceiling at apex; consistently available around pick 110–115 overall in one-tight-end and PPR leagues; massive appeal despite potential decline from 2021–2022 peak.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveValue3:09
Best value on board; source projects him to straight up outscore DK Metcalf this season; finished as top-30 receiver in three of last four seasons (WR30 last year by PPG, WR18 and WR21 in prior two years); top-20 in projected target volume among receivers; fits Aaron Rodgers' quick-timing rhythm throw style with reduced average depth of target; dominates in-breaking routes, hitches, and crossers with 72nd–73rd percentile separation score on those route types which comprise nearly 60% of his profile; WR32 in Fantasy Points projections vs. WR45 ADP, which source calls borderline disrespectful pricing; locked-in WR3 with top-24 upside across all team builds.
Insight pageWoody Marks
PositiveBust17:10
The source dismisses split-carry concerns with David Montgomery, stating 'I just don't buy it,' but the underlying evidence reveals Marks as a weak prospect. Marks was completely outplayed by 30-year-old Nick Chubb in every efficiency metric that matters: yards after contact, missed tackles forced, and yards per carry on man and gap blocking concepts. Chubb was stuffed at a lower rate and Marks lacked the burst expected. The source views Marks as limited to passing downs with Montgomery owning the backfield.
Insight pageZay Flowers
NegativeRole8:40
Flowers is the primary target competition for Andrews in a consolidated Ravens offense. He pushed for a 28% target share last season and should lead the team in targets, with Flowers and Andrews as the clear lead targets in the offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Fantasy Football Daily is back, and we are doing a solo show today talking about five players your league mates have wrong. I'm Graham Barfield. I am a
0:08lead analyst and the CFO here at Fantasy Points. Going to be walking through some players that your league league mates have completely mispriced.
0:18>> [music] >> Before you listen to this video, make
0:29sure you subscribe to the channel, hit the notification bell, and leave a like down below. It really does help us out
0:35quite a bit. If you agree or disagree with any of the analysis here on this show, leave us a comment. Love to hear
0:39from you guys down below. Let's get started with a quarterback I cannot stop drafting. I think if anybody has listened to any of our pods or any of
0:47our videos this off season, they know how high I am on this player and how high I am on this strategy. Later on
0:54quarterback is awesome this year, guys.
0:56I think in previous years, I think we've been a little more willing to pay up at the position, but not this
1:01year. I am wanting to punt as much as I can with quarterback, and it kind of starts honestly with this player. Brock
1:08Purdy is just massively underpriced. We do this every single year. You can just like rinse and repeat it. He's the QB 12
1:15in ADP, and he's going to out He's going to massively outscore that and out perform his ADP once again. Over the
1:21last three seasons, Brock Purdy is QB six in fantasy points per game. He's been an awesome bastion of efficient efficiency over the last three seasons. He leads
1:32all quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt. He's had over a 7% touchdown rate in three out of his last four seasons. And now he gets one of the
1:41touchdown makers of modern NFL in Mike Evans added to this roster. Evans, a future Hall of Famer. I'm all in on
1:49Brock Purdy at this QB 12 ADP.
1:52I think he has a similar type of upside argument as Joe Burrow. I think you you draft these pocket quarterbacks for
1:58their touchdown efficiency and maximizing their touchdown output. Brock Purdy at the highest end of his range of outcomes this year, he could certainly
2:06throw for 40 touchdowns. He was on pace for nearly 40 touchdowns last season. He only played in nine games due to injury,
2:13but he was excellent when he was on the field. And every year we we do this. We want to draft, you know, Shanahan
2:19quarterbacks. We want to draft the Shanahan, you know, style offense of quarterbacks. Well, why not just actually draft the guy attached to
2:26Shanahan himself. Brock Purdy is our QB10 in season-long projections here at Fantasy Points.
2:32We are all in on Purdy again this season and I I think in managed leagues and best ball leagues and two quarterback leagues, he is just
2:40way under priced for his ceiling. There is a lot of avenues for Brock Purdy to work out and it's it's efficiency and a
2:47volume standpoint for for Purdy. Niners have been shifting a little more balanced going away from the run-heavy approach that Shanahan had in his early
2:55play-calling career.
2:57I am just all over Brock Purdy this season. He is my favorite quarterback to draft at cost and he's someone that I'm
3:04going to prop up significantly in my upcoming superflex article on fantasypoints.com.
3:11We'll pivot over to receiver here that I think everybody is completely mispriced.
3:15Not only do I think Michael Pittman is the best one of the best values on the board. I think he straight up outscores
3:21DK Metcalf this season. I think he uh basically he fits with Aaron Rodgers in the way Aaron Rodgers plays football at
3:27this point in his career. A lot of just quick timing rhythm throws. Aaron Rodgers had one of the fastest time to
3:34throw here at Fantasy Points data. We we time every throw. Rodgers had one of the quickest last season. His average depth
3:40of target really sunk compared to where he was early in his career. It's not that Rodgers can't push the ball down
3:45the field. It's just that this is this is kind of where he's at. He's a little more diminished as a passer. And in my
3:50opinion, Michael Pittman absolutely fits the style of passer Aaron Rodgers is at this point in his career.
3:57Pittman has finished as a top-30 receiver in fantasy football in three out of the last four seasons.
4:03He was wide receiver 30 last year by points per game. He had a back injury in 2024 that really limited him, so we have
4:10to give him a little bit of an injury discount there, but the two prior years he was wide receiver 18 and wide
4:14receiver 21 in fantasy points per game.
4:17He's going to, you know, perfectly mesh with DK Metcalf. Metcalf is kind of the go and slant guy, and while, you know,
4:24Metcalf kind of dictates and draws a lot of coverage as the vertical threat in this offense, Pittman is going to absolutely dominate on in-breaking
4:31routes, hitches, and crossers. And he's sneakily one of the best separators in in among receivers. He has a 72nd to 73rd percentile separation score on all
4:40of those route types on in-breakers, hitches, and crossers, and those route types make up nearly 60% of his entire profile last season. Pittman is
4:50consistently going behind DK Metcalf in most drafts, and I think that's just a mistake. I think it's straight up a mistake. Here at Fantasy Points, we have
4:57these two players pretty closely projected. We We have Pittman ahead of DK Metcalf, wide receiver 32 for Michael Pittman. And but in terms of
5:08just total target volume, Pittman is top-20 among receivers in our projected targets. I think he's a good source of one, volume. You know, we're all looking
5:17for volume in fantasy football. That's targets are the lifeblood of fantasy points at receiver.
5:22And Pittman, wide receiver 45 in ADP, it's just way too cheap. It's like a borderline disrespectful price for him.
5:30I straight up prefer him over other veterans like Chris Godwin, Jordan Addison, Wan'Dale Robinson, Michael Wilson, and Courtland Sutton. I think Pittman is one of the
5:41the best values on the board, and I think he makes sense in all team builds.
5:44He makes sense where you go running back heavy. Maybe you're trying to make up a little bit receiver production late in
5:49your draft. He also makes sense in in receiver heavy builds where you have to play a bunch of flex flex spots. I think
5:55he's just a locked-in wide receiver three who has top 24 upside in his range of outcomes. And again, you can draft
6:02him consistently wide receiver 40, wide receiver 45 across all platforms in fantasy football right now.
6:12Another player that I think is just completely mispriced and maybe we haven't totally as a fantasy community like come around to what his changing,
6:21you know, outlook is in this offense, it's Mark Andrews. A player that has been consistently a top-five, top-six fantasy tight end in his career up until the
6:30last two seasons. There are a number of factors that are super bullish for Mark Andrews this season.
6:39Mainly, the first one that I keep coming back to is that he's not going to be a full-time player anymore. Over the last
6:43two seasons, he's struggled to, you know, basically run a full-time route share. He was tight end 22 in route share over the last two seasons. And
6:53this is a player who could absolutely get back to where he was in his glory days in '21, '22, and '23 when he was
7:00leading all players in route participation rate. Isaiah Likely is gone. Charlie Kolar is gone. They have no one else to really compete for these
7:10routes with Mark Andrews. So, we have, you know, increased playing time on the table for Andrews this season.
7:19And he's always been one of the more prolific touchdown scores in fantasy football in his career. And even with a part-time role over the last two
7:28seasons, he's tight end two in our expected touchdown metric here at Fantasy Points Data. We look at every angle for our expected fantasy points
7:36metrics, and expected touchdowns is one of them. And tight end, really past tight end 10, guys, like we're kind of chasing touchdown upside. It makes no
7:43sense that Andrews is going tight end 11. I have him much higher. I have him closer to tight end and tight end seven
7:49in my personal rankings. His expected touchdown metrics, guys, over the last two seasons, it trails only George Kittle. George Kittle has been a, you
7:56know, cut touchdown king uh at times in his career. He's he's been excellent uh over the last two seasons, but man, Mark Andrews is
8:04completely mispriced. I think the only downside risk is that he's getting up there in age. He maybe has lost a step
8:10in terms of his separation ability, but all of that is more than priced in.
8:14If you are punting tight end this season and you want to go for, you know, a player who has not only just like
8:20usable, you know, potential every single week, but has true top five upside, Mark Andrews has been somebody that I have been slamming in all of my drafts and
8:28somebody that I'm going to make a big part of my draft plan in all of my managed leagues this year. Tight end 11
8:33ADP is just way too cheap for this player. He's only really competing for targets right now with Zay Flowers.
8:40Flowers should certainly lead this team in targets. He pushed for a 28% target share last season, but I'm just looking at this is like this is going to be a
8:48pretty consolidated offense with Zay and Mark Andrews as the clear lead targets.
8:53The final factor here is Lamar Jackson's healthy, guys. Lamar was completely beat up last season, had a hamstring injury, came back, was not himself.
9:02Uh he still had a ridiculous 7% passing touchdown rate.
9:07Lamar Jackson in his entire career has a equally almost ridiculous 6 and 1/2% touchdown rate. He's a player that's capable of having a season where he
9:15spikes to nine or eight eight and a half 9% in terms of his touchdown percentage.
9:21There's just massive appeal with Mark Andrews. So, yeah, maybe sure he has lost a step. Yeah, maybe sure he will never get back to that 21 and 22 type
9:29form, but that's all baked into this price. I think he has top eight upside in his range of outcomes, and at the
9:36highest end of his apex, he could certainly get back to top-five scoring.
9:40And again, you're getting this player consistently in in in, you know, one-tight-end leagues or in in PPR leagues right around 110-115 overall in
9:48ADP. And even on FFPC and tight end premium, I think he makes a ton of sense over there as well as a cheaper, you
9:56know, player who who has legitimate top-10 fantasy football upside.
10:02We'll get into the top two players that your league mates have wrong this coming season. And anybody who is not believing
10:10that Bashaun Tuitan isn't a great player and has huge upside is just dead wrong. Bashaun Tuitan really popped in my yards created metric last season when
10:20he come he came out of college at a Virginia Tech. He was one of the clear winners of that metric, was third in the
10:27class in yards created per attempt. Last season, he was sat behind Travis Etienne as kind of a change of pace and like,
10:33you know, early-down runner.
10:36Etienne had a nice season last year, but Tuitan never really got the chance to break out. But now this backfield could
10:41totally be his. Underneath the hood, you know, Travis Etienne has just never really been a player who's been super efficient on his carries. So, we'll take
10:50that with a grain of salt, but Bashaun Tuitan actually led this backfield in yards after contact per attempt. He led this backfield in missed tackles forced
10:58per attempt last season, and he led it in success rate. What that means to me is that, you know, on a small sample of, you know,
11:05just 80 carries last season, 80 or so carries, he was very, very efficient on his plays. And, you know, it's always
11:12it's troublesome. We like we can't just sit here and and, you know, extrapolate out small sample success over, you know, what should be potentially 180 or 200
11:21carries this season. But, I you know, I think with with Tuitan, we had enough last year in the small sample bag that
11:28proves that he could be a very, very explosive player. Liam Cohen uh has said this offseason a number of times that he was very impressed by
11:37Toutan's ability to create yards after contact. Again, something that he did in college and he did relatively well, at least compared to
11:44Travis Etienne last year. There is huge touchdown upside with this offense that I think that is baked into the price.
11:52You're You're paying in most platforms, you're paying a fifth round ADP, around RB 22 to RB 25 in ADP. But, the Jags
12:00closed out last season, guys, as one of the most prolific scoring offenses in football.
12:06They finished the season sixth in points per game.
12:09Uh there's a chance here that Toutan, like, not only has legitimately good touchdown upside, even if he does split carries at the goal line with Chris
12:17Rodriguez, but there's there's a chance here he gets pretty much all of the designed work in the passing game this coming season. Toutan, you know, we've
12:26seen this with Liam Cohen in the past, when he was with the Bucks, he was excellent at designing up those screen
12:32targets to his running backs. He did it last year at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The 49ers and the Jags were
12:38tied for top fifth in [snorts] design targets to their players in the screen game out of the backfield. And yeah, okay, maybe Bishal Toutan's not
12:46Christian McCaffrey. Let's Let's not Let's not paint that type of picture.
12:49He's not like a prime Alvin Kamara type pass catcher, but he's more than capable and he's more than capable of creating a
12:55big play off the screens in that in that particular part of the passing game. We saw that a little bit in the Bills game
13:01as well. He had just nine touches and nearly had 100 yards from scrimmage in their loss in the in the postseason to
13:07the Bills last year. Bishal Toutan is one of my favorite players to draft in hero running back builds where you take
13:14a running back in the first two rounds.
13:15You have one awesome running back, let's say it's Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, James Cook type level of runner. You basically
13:23spend the next couple of rounds taking a Brock Bowers or a bunch of receivers that we love in that kind of rounds
13:28three through five pocket. You come back and you get Breashaad Wilson. You compare him uh fifth round Tuton, sixth round Tuton with Chuba Hubbard in the
13:37seventh round, Jaylen Warren in the seventh round, a player that you know is going to be able to give you 10, 11, 12
13:42PPR points if things don't work out with Tuton. I fully fully admit that Tuton has one of the widest range of outcomes
13:49of any player on the board, but I think your league mates when you're getting into your draft, they're going to kind
13:53of turn their nose up a little bit like, "Oh, you're taking a guy who's got no production. Uh he wasn't like maybe the
13:59most prolific in terms of his production as a rookie. Uh he wasn't maybe the most prolific in terms of his production in
14:05college. This is a player who has immense upside and he really only has to beat out an early down grinder type in
14:11Chris Rodriguez, who is coming off of a foot injury. There is huge upside within this Jags offense that really took off
14:18at the end of last year and I think all of these players could end up being really underpriced. At least a few of
14:24them are going to be underpriced for your fantasy leagues and they're going to really beat their ADP.
14:29Tuton is my favorite bet.
14:33All right, the last player your league mate has wrong, all of your league mates are going to miss out on a player who I
14:41I think has massive bell cow upside in the Houston Texans offense. It's David Montgomery. Montgomery is one of the most underrated players that's moving
14:51places in free agency this off season.
14:54He obviously was stuck behind Jahmyr Gibbs for the last two seasons and in particularly the last you know, eight games of last year.
15:02Basically didn't play. Jahmyr Gibbs completely ethered him, but David Montgomery man, I mean he's always been one of the best runners in football in
15:08terms of his efficiency. I think he's been very underrated in that regard. He's been underrated in terms of his missed tackles forced.
15:16But the big appeal I have with this offense is I I think the Texans are an underrated team to draft this season. I
15:23think this this defense is going to keep them in a lot of positive game scripts, going to give Montgomery a lot of
15:29positive game scripts where he has 15, 16, 17, 18 carries.
15:33And there's just significant touchdown upside in this offense. Montgomery over the last three seasons is behind only Derrick Henry in our expected touchdown
15:43metric here at Fantasy Points.
15:45Obviously, a lot of that came attached to the Lions offense, but Montgomery is more than capable of hammering in a ton of
15:52touchdowns. And even just last year when he was splitting carries with Jahmyr Gibbs, the guy was RB15 in the rate of
15:58carries he had inside the 5-yard line at 62%.
16:02Montgomery is capable of not only being the goal-line back and, you know, providing a little bit of a, you know, efficiency. Maybe he's not the world's
16:09most explosive runner. I don't think he's going to necessarily push for like a crazy, you know, 10 or 12% explosive run rate where he's ripping off a bunch
16:15of plays, but he's always been pretty elusive and strong through contact. This Texans offensive line is going to be completely revamped. I think it's
16:22certainly a downgrade from what he was, you know, playing behind with the Lions, but Texans have revamped their offensive line.
16:29CJ Stroud coming back fully healthy. Nico Collins coming back fully healthy. Jaylen Noel and Jaden Higgins coming into their second year.
16:37This offense has a chance to really take a leap. The main thing I keep coming back to with Montgomery is the touchdown
16:43upside. The Texans are implied to win nine and a half games this year by the Vegas win totals. It's pretty freaking
16:50strong, guys. Like, it's right there with the Broncos and the Chargers and the Bears. Cowboys is, you know, right there, you know, among the best
16:57offenses, top 15 offenses in football this season in terms of their win equity. And as we know with running backs, they're extremely game script
17:05dependent. Montgomery is going to have some great game scripts where he has the potential to score multiple touchdowns in these games. And then let's not
17:13forget he's also a pretty good receiver.
17:14I mean, he has a a season with 50 54 receptions on his docket. Uh You know, he hasn't had to play a ton in the
17:21passing games just cuz Jamir Gibbs is so dynamic obviously in the past game, but he's always been a pretty good receiver
17:28right around 8 or 9 yards per reception.
17:30Woody Marks guys just does not concern me. There's been some reporting that Woody Marks might split carries with with David Montgomery. I just don't buy
17:36it. Marks was completely outplayed by Nick Chubb who was in the you know, basically tail end of his career not even the back nine. He was on the 18th
17:45hole of his career.
17:47He's 30 years old and he bested Woody Marks in every metric that we care about every efficiency metric last year that
17:53we care about yards after contact, missed tackles forced. Yards per carry on man and got gap blocking concepts. He was Nick Chubb was was stuffed at a at a
18:02lower rate than Woody Marks and he just did not have the same burst that we we've known from Nick Chubb. Obviously,
18:08he had two catastrophic injuries in his career that really kind of zapped his explosiveness at the end of his career.
18:13This is no shade at all on Nick Chubb. I just don't think Woody Marks was a particularly good prospect coming out of
18:19college. He did not pop at all in yards created and got outplayed by a 30-year-old veteran in Nick Chubb last season. I think there's a chance that
18:27Marks plays on passing downs for sure, but this should be David Montgomery's backfield in full.
18:33Montgomery makes a lot of sense in all team builds. I think he makes sense as an RB2 where you take your first running
18:41back in the first two rounds, you get a couple of receivers, you get Montgomery in the fourth. Also think you know, zero
18:46running back has fallen out of vogue this year and this isn't like a true zero running back build. You're kind of
18:50pushing your running backs even further down the board like into the fifth and sixth round to get your RB1 or RB2.
18:56Montgomery is going at the end of the fourth round, middle of the fourth round in some sharper formats. I think he also
19:02makes sense in that kind of build too.
19:03You you know, start maybe receiver receiver, get Josh Allen in the third round or maybe you get Brock Bowers in the second round. You can come back and
19:10build a nice little stable of running backs starting with David Montgomery in that fourth round. I am all in on Montgomery this season.
19:21This has been five players your league mates are completely wrong about. We're drafting all the Brock Purdy we can get our hands on at QB 12 and ADP. Michael
19:31Pittman is going to outscore DK Metcalf this season and he's just way too cheap at wide receiver 45. We have always been
19:38big fans of Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews to your fantasy points last season was the first year we were kind of out on
19:43him this year, but you know what?
19:45I'm bringing it back. Mark Andrews is going to be a top eight fantasy tight end this season. You can draft him
19:50around tight end 11 or tight end 12. And we love these fourth and fifth round running backs between Khalil Herbert's upside, David Montgomery's floor and
19:58touchdown scoring ability. This is a great way to beat your league mates, beat ADP, and draft the best team possible.
20:09Until the next video, I'm Graham Barfield. Leave a comment down below if you agree or disagree with any of the analysis. Maybe you think I'm completely
20:17wrong that Khalil Herbert is a league-winning type player this year.
20:21Maybe you're on Chris Rodriguez. Maybe you're on the passing game for the Jaguars this year. Leave a comment down below. We'd love to hear from you guys
20:27>> [music] >> and we will see you in the next video.
20:37>> [music]
