0:00All right. So, some of these sell high
0:01candidates are going to be dependent on
0:03the injury reports that we're getting
0:04today, such as this Crystal L setup. So,
0:07I know that I have talked about selling
0:10high on a lav multiple times this
0:12season. Hell, I made the worst Crystal L
0:15trade you could ever imagine at the
0:17beginning of the year, proving that I am
0:18an absolute idiot and have no idea what
0:20I'm talking about. But, I do think it's
0:23worth circling back to the Ave situation
0:25today. Chris Lave has not seen his
0:28ranking on fogfantasy.com fall at all
0:31with the expert average rankings. He is
0:33currently sitting at 18 overall in the
0:36expert average ranks at wide receiver 7.
0:39He looked incredible at the beginning of
0:41the season where at the beginning of the
0:43year Chris Ave had 28 points in the
0:46overtime game against Detroit. He had 22
0:49points against the Baltimore Ravens. A
0:51lot of that coming after the game was
0:53kind of already a blowout. But
0:55afterwards, he has yet to crack 20
0:57points in five games straight. He has
1:00been significantly worse over the past
1:02three, not cracking 15. And with a lav,
1:06we finally have the additional target
1:08competition entering into this offense.
1:10Now, again, I am recording this early
1:13Wednesday morning before the Jordan
1:15Tyson injury report. If Jordan Tyson is
1:19not at practice on Wednesday, which I'll
1:21let you know about tonight in the live
1:23stream. Just make sure you subscribe.
1:25Honestly, situation's not going to
1:27change much. But right now, Ave is
1:30averaging 27% of the New Orleans Saints
1:32target share. That's his second highest
1:34mark he has seen his entire NFL career.
1:37The only season, which has been more,
1:39was last year after they traded away
1:41Shahed. He's the last guy in the
1:43offense. So, when we get Tyson back and
1:46when ETN's eventually back as well, two
1:49things are going to happen. One, this
1:50offense is going to be able to run the
1:52ball a little bit more. They're not
1:53going to have to be as passy. And two,
1:56the market share numbers will slightly
1:58come down for a lav. So, instead of him
2:01being a mid wide receiver one, I think
2:03he's more so going to be a low-end wide
2:06receiver one in fantasy. And I would
2:08rather pivot over to somebody else
2:10that's in a similar range in my mind.
2:12Especially if we can get an upgrade
2:13elsewhere. Like if I can move from Chris
2:16Ave and trade him for Drake London and
2:19get an upgrade in my lineup at the same
2:22time at running back or tight end, I
2:24think that would be great. I could say
2:26the same thing here about moving from
2:28Chris Ave down to a Christian Watson or
2:32Matthew Golden and getting an upgrade
2:34elsewhere in my lineup. I think those
2:37would be interesting pivots. Now, of
2:39course, we have to see if Tyson's going
2:42to be back at practice. I'm very much
2:44hoping that he will be, but it is no
2:46guarantee whatsoever. Now, I actually
2:48recently made a trade in my league.
2:51That's the Flock League, of course. I
2:52traded away Jameson Williams and
2:55Jonathan Taylor for Bejon Robinson. Now,
2:58I'll be honest. I'm not going to tell
2:59anybody here to sell high on Jonathan
3:01Taylor. I get it. I want to focus in on
3:04Jameson Williams and why I felt
3:06comfortable moving on from JMO. And I am
3:09very, very grateful. I mean, I have won
3:11four straight games in my league. It
3:12looks like Jameson Williams put me on
3:15that win streak to yet again be a top
3:18two team in my league for three years
3:20straight, which I am so grateful for. It
3:22seems like it should be impossible to
3:24have that sustained success in an expert
3:27league. But anyway, um Jameson Williams
3:31very grateful for what he has done over
3:33his last four games. He's not any
3:36different of the player that he has been
3:37his entire NFL career though. We know at
3:40this point that Jameson Williams is a
3:42boom bust wide receiver that is going to
3:45have some duds. He is going to have some
3:48booms as well. If we look over the past
3:51four weeks, he has scored five
3:53touchdowns. He is running incredibly hot
3:56with these TDs, which again, I was very,
3:59very, very happy with, but it's just not
4:02sustainable through the rest of the
4:03year. Like we can go through and we can
4:05look at every season of his NFL career
4:08and see, yeah, it's the expectation that
4:12the touchdown rate for a wide receiver
4:14with this profile that's not a crazy red
4:16zone threat is probably going to be
4:18about five 6%. And yeah, back in his
4:22second season when he had 42 targets, he
4:24had two touchdowns. So a touchdown rate
4:26slightly under 5%. Um, in 2024 he had 91
4:31targets, he had seven touchdowns. So a
4:34touchdown rate hovering around 67%.
4:37In 2025, he had seven touchdowns to 102
4:41targets. So a touchdown rate slightly
4:43under 7%. Which this makes a lot of
4:45sense, that standard. And keep in mind
4:47that 2025 season, you had no Sam
4:50Leaporta for a lot of it. Well, this
4:52year he's had 44 targets, five
4:54touchdowns. Touchdown rate is running
4:56incredibly high. We know these
4:58touchdowns are the most volatile thing
5:00that you will find in fantasy. His
5:02actual target share in this offense so
5:04far this season isn't any different than
5:07what we've had over the past three. I
5:08mean, two years ago it was 18.9%.
5:12Last year was 18.5% and this year it's
5:1418%. So in the Detroit Lions game plan
5:18over the past few weeks, it is centered
5:20around Jameson Williams. Sam Leaporta
5:23has kind of faded to the background
5:25after the buy where Sam Leaporta over
5:27the past two games has a total of four
5:30receptions. I don't expect that to be
5:32the case forever. I think JMO's going to
5:34get some big weeks. Leaporta is going to
5:36get some big weeks. But after Jamo's had
5:38four great games straight, I think this
5:40is probably the time to be looking to
5:42see if you can cash in before those duds
5:44happen. Um, again, what I did is I
5:47packaged him with Jonathan Taylor to
5:49move up to Bejon Robinson, who I think
5:52is a very quality B low candidate. Um, I
5:56know that may be a little bit tougher to
5:57do in other leagues, but like other
6:00receivers that I would just be
6:01interested in trading straight up if I
6:03could get rid of JMO would be somebody
6:05like Tedo of McMillan. I think that
6:07would be very interesting. or maybe a
6:10wide receiver like George Pickkins where
6:11we have seen like the top five overall
6:14ceiling for Pickkins where we have never
6:16seen it for JO in his career. Now moving
6:18over to our next call. I hate to do this
6:22but I I just have to. So we had Michael
6:25Wilson as a buy low candidate last week
6:27and again one week later we're now
6:29calling him a sell high. Feels very
6:31aggressive, feels very rough. I get it.
6:34But we do have to just acknowledge the
6:36difference in value that he has after
6:38last game. Last week he came through. He
6:42dropped 27 fantasy points, 15 targets,
6:47eight receptions, over a 100 receiving
6:48yards, and a receiving touchdown. And
6:51now I see him rising up rankings a
6:53considerable amount. This is despite
6:55Michael Wilson suffering multiple broken
6:59ribs in this game, which of course
7:01Michael Wilson's the biggest badass on
7:03this planet. He came out and he said
7:04when asked later on, "Hey, uh, why'd you
7:07play with broken ribs?" He said,
7:10"They're paying me a lot. It's my job.
7:12I'm going to go out there and do my
7:14job." Like, dear God, this man is a
7:16freaking alpha. Marvin Harrison could
7:18never or Marvin Harrison Jr. could
7:20never. Let me clarify. But now, if we
7:23reset expectations, Michael Wilson with
7:26broken ribs not being at full strength
7:29with Gardenner Mchu at quarterback. And
7:31I completely understand. Garner Mchu
7:33looked really good this past week. I
7:36actually am seeing that this Cardinals
7:38offense is projecting out much worse
7:41with Mchu under center. Like right now
7:44against the Seahawks, the Cardinals are
7:46the biggest dogs of anybody in the NFL
7:48this week. They very similar to the
7:51Baltimore Ravens are projecting out over
7:54under 14 and a half total points and the
7:57spread in this game's 12 1/2. And of
7:59course, if you wanted to check out any
8:00of those markets, you can find the link
8:02to Poly Market US in the description
8:04comment section. Code Flock gets you set
8:06up with $25 added to your account after
8:08you deposit your first 10. Available in
8:10every state outside of Nevada. I think
8:13it's about to get really ugly in
8:15Arizona. This is a team that's going to
8:17be playing for absolutely nothing at
8:18all. If you can take Michael Wilson's
8:21massive spike now that he has the broken
8:23ribs and sell him higher than what he
8:25cost last week, I think it makes sense.
8:28Like I would like to pivot from Michael
8:29Wilson over to Rasheed Rice. If I could
8:32pivot from Michael Wilson over to
8:34Jameson Williams over to Jaylen Coker or
8:37especially if I could get up to George
8:39Pickkins, I think that'd make a lot of
8:41sense here. Now, let me move to DK Metaf
8:44and Jeremy Bernard. And with the overall
8:48Pittsburgh Steelers, I have a lot to
8:50discuss. The first thing that I think is
8:53going to be a very relevant note here
8:56for the Steelers is the addition of
8:59Michael Pitman Jr. back into this
9:01offense. Now, I am not going to sit here
9:04and say that Pitman is a super talented
9:07player. I am not going to try to say
9:09that Pitman is a more talented player
9:11than DK Mechaf or Jeremy Bernard. I
9:14think Mechaf and Bernard are both better
9:16than Pitman is at this point of his NFL
9:18career, especially coming back from an
9:20injury. But very similar to how we
9:22talked about selling high on Jaylen
9:23Warren before Rico Dattle came back,
9:26knowing that D was going to get used in
9:28this offense. It's going to be the same
9:30setup here with Pitman. Pitman went on
9:33the IR back in week five. He missed his
9:37four games weeks five, six, seven,
9:40eight. The Steelers are now going to be
9:42on their week nine buy. So he's going to
9:44get an extra week to rest like all the
9:46other receivers. And then early
9:48indications are going to be that
9:50Pitman's back in week 10. And with
9:52Pitman being back, the three games that
9:55he played early in this season, he
9:57played over 70% in every single one of
10:00those contests. And he was dealing with
10:02that foot injury in two of them. So I
10:05think Pitman's usage is going to eat
10:07into the amount of snaps that you can
10:09get specifically from Jeremy Bernard.
10:11And then also looking at this with Roman
10:13Wilson as well. Um Roman Wilson is not
10:17going to be back the same time that we
10:19get Pitman, but once Roman Wilson comes
10:22in, he had seen six targets every single
10:25game through the first four weeks here
10:27for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Again, this
10:30isn't a situation in which I think
10:32they're going to come in and play over
10:34Metaf or over Bernard. But instead of
10:37Bernard playing what 90 plus% of the
10:40snaps as he has been over the past few
10:42weeks, I wouldn't be surprised at all if
10:44that actually slides back down to like
10:4770ish% of the snaps while we get Pitman
10:50and we get Wilson back into this
10:52rotation. Now, if I was looking to go
10:55through and try to offload Jeremy
10:57Bernard, let's be real here. You're not
10:59going to be able to sell Jeremy Bernard
11:01straight up and get a very enticing
11:03player. I think selling Bernard's
11:05probably going to be in a similar type
11:07deal that we talked about with maybe
11:09trying to sell high on Derrick Henry,
11:11right? Where if you were trying to
11:12package together Derrick Henry and move
11:14up to like a Kairen Williams or a
11:16Javvante Williams, I think Jeremy
11:19Bernard would be like the extra piece
11:21that you could go ahead and add on to
11:23that. Now, let's move to two running
11:27backs we need to discuss in Minnesota,
11:30and that's going to be Jordan Mason and
11:32Aaron Jones. So, it was going to be very
11:34interesting to see how they split this
11:36backfield with Jordan Mason coming back
11:38in. And my initial expectations for the
11:41Jordan Mason Aaron Jones split were
11:43going to be that both of these running
11:44backs were playing about 50% of the
11:46snaps. Neither guy was interesting and
11:49neither player was really startable in
11:51fantasy. But again, I figured you were
11:53going to get half the snaps for Jordan
11:55Mason, half the snaps for Aaron Jones.
11:58Well, what I did not expect is DJ Dallas
12:02to come in and turn this into a threeman
12:06running back by committee where if you
12:08look this past week, Jordan Mason 28% of
12:12the snaps for the Minnesota Vikings,
12:14Aaron Jones 40% of the snaps for the
12:17Minnesota Vikings and DJ Dallas 32% of
12:21the snaps. So, it looks like neither
12:24running back here in Minnesota as any
12:27path to being startable outside of an
12:30injury. So, they're very much just
12:32handcuffs. They're like Kayn Black.
12:35They're like Emit Johnson, these other
12:37players that are on your waiver wire.
12:39So, if you could package them in a two
12:41for one deal to get an upgrade almost
12:43anywhere, if you have Emit Johnson on
12:45your waiverss, if you have Kalin Black
12:47on your waivers, they're about the same
12:49as what Jordan Mason is. I think the
12:50only world in which you'll ever start
12:52Jordan Mason is if we end up seeing
12:56an injury to Aaron Jones. And even in
12:58that case, I question what the ceiling
13:00is. Now, our last player that I think is
13:02maybe an interesting guy to just go
13:04ahead and add into a deal will be Roma.
13:07Rome had his second best fantasy day of
13:11his season this past week on prime time
13:14in a really tough matchup against the
13:16Seattle Seahawks. And you know what
13:18Roman Dunce did with that?
13:2112.7 fantasy points and he was a
13:23high-end wide receiver three. It's just
13:25over with Realm. Like there is no hope
13:28for him whatsoever. I I don't know how
13:31you could realistically ever get him in
13:33your starting lineup. He's the wide
13:35receiver, 52 in points per game this
13:37season. even win. The Chicago Bears are
13:40great with one of the best quarterbacks
13:42in the league. Um, we are still just
13:45seeing anybody else in this offense get
13:47volume other than Rome. So, very similar
13:50to Mason Aaron Jones. I know you're not
13:51going to be getting much, but if you
13:53could package him in any two for one
13:55deal for an upgrade elsewhere, that
13:56would be interesting to me. But, I think
13:58that's all I got for you. I really
14:00appreciate you and hope I was able to
14:01help you out in some way with this. And
14:03of course, if you haven't already,
14:05please make sure you subscribe to the
14:06channel. I am live streaming every
14:08single day until Christmas answering
14:10your fantasy football questions. I would
14:12love to see you out in the live stream
14:14later tonight, but much love. Thank you
14:16again and I'll see you
