VideoFrom Ron Stewart
6 Stats You MUST KNOW For Week 16 (Sneaky Starts)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
16 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Dec 20, 2025
Published
Sat, December 20, 2025
6
Player insights
6
Players mentioned
Topics
Emanuel WilsonJosh JacobsKimani VidalMecole HardmanMike GesickiTrevor Lawrence
Player analysis
Player insights
Emanuel Wilson
PositiveValue4:13
Backup running back available on waivers; would be a top 24 RB play if Josh Jacobs misses Week 16, making him a high-upside handcuff grab. Basil Tutin recommends grabbing him off waivers as a contingency if Jacobs cannot play.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury4:00
Potentially missing Week 16 game on Saturday due to injury; notorious for not practicing or playing banged up, creating conditional backup value for Emanuel Wilson. Basil Tutin flags the need to monitor Jacobs' availability before the game.
Insight pageKimani Vidal
PositiveSleeper5:15
Sneaky PPR RB2/flex play ranked RB37 this week despite being on benches; averages 14 touches per game with a steady 57% route share over his last two games (11th among RBs), and faces Dallas which allows the 8th most fantasy points to RBs with 72 receiving receptions allowed (5th most) and 656 receiving yards (2nd most). The game carries the second-highest total of the week at 49.5, setting up a 10+ carry, 4+ target outing with legit PPR upside; Hampton's return has clarified the split with Hampton as early-down grinder and Vidal as pass-catcher.
Insight pageMecole Hardman
PositiveValue1:28
Week 16 sneaky start: consensus WR30, Basil Tutin's WR26 ranking; strong boom-bust flex option coming off best game since week 10 despite low snap share last week vs. Falcons. Carolina is a pass funnel (61.7% pass rate in neutral situations, 9th highest) running zone coverage at 2nd highest rate (79.8%), where Hardman excels. He leads Tampa Bay WRs in PFF grade vs. zone, averaging 2.37 yards per route run against zone (behind only Mike Evans) vs. just 0.79 yards per route run vs. man coverage. His ceiling games come in zone-heavy matchups; best game of season was 31.3 PPR points vs. Seattle (6th highest zone coverage rate). Even with Mike Evans back, Hardman averages 14.2 PPR per game vs. 12.5 without him.
Insight pageMike Gesicki
PositiveValue12:53
Basil Tutin recommends Mike Gesicki as a tight end streamer for Week 16 versus Miami, ranked TE21. Gesicki scored 20 PPR points against Buffalo the prior week and carries revenge-game potential against Miami, his original team before stints with New England and Cincinnati. He hit a season-high 75% route share last week and should maintain that range with T. Higgins likely sidelined. Cincinnati carries the second-highest implied team total at 26 points. Miami has been a dream matchup for tight ends, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. Gesicki did most of his work from the slot, running 30 slot routes last week (most on the Bengals), and the Dolphins have surrendered 8 touchdowns to slot-aligned players (12th most in the NFL).
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection1:02
Week 12 sneaky start report card: was top 8 quarterback that week, supporting the value of streaming quarterbacks outside the consensus top tier.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to
0:02the basement. I'm Ron. And if you're in
0:04a tough spot right now trying to set
0:06your lineup, whether somebody is out or
0:09there's a late game inactive or you are
0:12scratching and clawing your way to win a
0:15toilet bowl game to get out of a last
0:17place punishment, this is the video for
0:19you because we are going to talk through
0:20my six sneaky starts and stats for week
0:2416 of the fantasy football season. And
0:27this is where I give you players that
0:29are outside the top
0:3130 at every position. Well, I guess at
0:34tight end and quarterback, it's like
0:35outside of the top 15, but you get what
0:36I'm saying. Off the beaten path. I'm not
0:37going to hop on here and tell you to
0:39start Christian McCaffrey or Jamir
0:40Gibbs. I am going to go dumpster diving.
0:43We're going to get a quarterback
0:44streamer, a tight end streamer, a wide
0:46receiver, and running back you can pick
0:48up right off of waiverss if you are in a
0:50tough spot. Look, it's the fantasy
0:53playoffs. We are all just trying to
0:55survive and advance. And at this point
0:59in the year, if you are in a tough spot
1:02or you're not projected to win,
1:04sometimes you have to treat it like a
1:07DFS slate and play the matchups and dig
1:11deep. And that's what we're going to do
1:12today for our last sneaky start and stat
1:16video of the season. As always, if you
1:18enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're
1:21new. And how this video is going to work
1:23is I am going to talk through the sneaky
1:26starts that I am higher on than
1:28consensus and give you a stat as to why
1:31that's the case. Now, of course, before
1:33we even talk about my first sneaky
1:34start, I will show you a sneaky stat and
1:39start report card from the last time we
1:42did this, which is week 12. We did this
1:43from like weeks 1 through 10 every week,
1:45and then it gets a little spotty with
1:46Thanksgiving and the schedule of things,
1:49but the last time we did this was week
1:5012. We did pretty well. We had Jameus
1:52Winston, who was the QB1 that week. If
1:54you remember, that was uh Giants vers
1:56Lions when Jameus Winston caught the
1:58receiving touchdown. Uh Jacobe Myers was
2:00the top 20 wide receiver that week.
2:02Trevor Lawrence we called, was a top
2:03eight wide uh quarterback that week.
2:07Luther Burden was about neutral. He was
2:08the wide receiver 36 that week. AJ
2:10Barner with Basil Tutin whiff. Now, of
2:14course, if you want access to my
2:15complete week 16 rankings for the
2:17playoffs, I will make sure to update
2:19them Saturday morning and Sunday
2:21morning. You can find that at
2:22patreon.com/ronstewart
2:24in the description and the comment
2:26section down below. Now, my first sneaky
2:29start, and I know that this one's not
2:31crazy off the beaten path, but it is a
2:34Mecha Ibuka. He is the consensus wide
2:37receiver 30. He is my wide receiver 26
2:41on the road versol. And I just want to
2:43give you one final nudge of a vote of
2:46confidence for Ibuka. I know that it's
2:48been a rough stretch here.
2:51I know he's been giving some duds. I
2:54know that he's been busting some
2:55lineups, but I think that you can throw
2:57him in your flex spot here in week 16.
3:00And here's why. For me, he is a strong
3:03boom bust flex option this week, coming
3:05off his best game since week 10 despite
3:07a 10-week low in snapshare last week
3:10versus the Falcons. Carolina this week
3:13is a pass funnel with opponents throwing
3:1561.7% of the time in neutral situations,
3:17the ninth highest in the NFL. And they
3:19run zone coverage at the second highest
3:21rate in the NFL 79.8% of the time.
3:24Exactly where Ibuka does his damage. He
3:26leads Tampa Bay wide receivers in PFF
3:28grade versus zone and averages 2.37
3:30yards per outr run against zone behind
3:32only Mike Evans compared to just.79
3:35yards per outr run verse man coverage.
3:38He is much better against zone. His
3:40ceiling games come in zoneheavy
3:41matchups. When he had his best game of
3:43the season, 31.3 PPR points for Seattle.
3:47Seattle runs the sixth highest zone
3:49coverage rate in the NFL. Even with Mike
3:52Evans back, Ibuka still averages 14.2
3:55points per game in games with Mike Evans
3:57as compared to 12.5 points per game
4:00without him. So, I think that this is a
4:01really nice high upside flex play. I get
4:04Ibuka has been tough to rely on, but I
4:08really do like him here down the
4:10stretch. Now, I will say as well, I
4:11always say this, my work sited for this
4:14video, uh, underdognetwork.com, Hayden
4:17Wings has some really good articles over
4:18there. Uh, establish the run, uh, Pat
4:21Thorman's snaps and pace article. I also
4:24like, uh, hopping into conclusions, a
4:26substack by Sam Hoppin.
4:28Fantasy Points is great. Their data
4:31suite is amazing. PFF is amazing as
4:33well. I think that that kind of covers
4:35everything that I look at. Now, moving
4:37on from Amecha Ibuka, we have a running
4:40back here. And this one is, look, he
4:42might just be sitting on your bench. You
4:44might not consider starting him, but if
4:46you need an RB2, right, if your running
4:48back is in a tough spot, I know Josh
4:49Jacobs is out there, uh, potentially
4:51might miss this game on Saturday. I will
4:53throw out a name. I'm not going to count
4:55him as a sneaky start, but if Emanuel
4:57Wilson is on waiverss, go grab him just
4:59in case. Emanuel Wilson would be a top
5:0124 play if Josh Jacobs missed. Jacobs is
5:05notorious for not practicing or playing
5:07banged up. So, don't get too high or too
5:10low when it comes to Emanuel Wilson, but
5:11he is a great running back replacement
5:13if you need one. But, if he's rostered,
5:15if Vidal is just kind of collecting dust
5:16on your bench, he is not a terrible play
5:19to put in your RB2 spot. He is my RB37
5:22this week. only one spot higher than
5:24Consensus, but I'm not going to
5:25artificially move a player up just to
5:28appease this video. Uh, regardless, he
5:31is off the beaten path. He's on the road
5:33versus Dallas, and he lines up as a
5:35sneaky PPR RB2/flex play in a strong
5:38game environment. Dallas is allowing the
5:40eighth most fantasy points to running
5:41backs and has been especially vulnerable
5:43through the air, giving up 72 running
5:45back receptions, fifth most, the second
5:48most receiving yards with 656, and a
5:501.85 yards per run. the third most all
5:53to running back. So they're allowing a
5:55lot of fantasy points to running backs
5:56mainly through the air. And even though
5:58Hampton has returned from injury since
6:01Hampton has returned, Vidal has still
6:03averaged 14 touches per game over this
6:05twoame stretch with the Chargers ranking
6:06ninth in total running back usage over
6:09the last four weeks. There is plenty of
6:11volume to go around. Vidal's also held a
6:14steady 57% route share over his last two
6:16games, putting him 11th among running
6:19backs in that span. And this game
6:21carries the second highest total of the
6:22week, 49.5. It's underdogs in a
6:25high-scoring spot. The Dallas set up for
6:27another 10 plus carry, four plus target
6:29outing with legit PPR upside. And if you
6:32remember, his best game of the year came
6:35in a game where he I believe he had five
6:38targets
6:41against I thought I had this written
6:43down, but it came against
6:46the
6:50Miami Dolphins. He had four targets in
6:52this game. The week after that, he had
6:53five targets against the Colts. I'm just
6:55hoping this is a game where he sees a
6:56bunch of targets. It seems like since
6:58Hampton has returned that they have been
6:59using Hampton as the early down grinder
7:01with Vidal as the pass catcher, hitting
7:0355% or more of the routes in two
7:05straight games here. So, he's kind of
7:07the perfect high PPR upside option in a
7:09game versus Dallas where they are
7:11allowing that sort of thing. Two running
7:14backs. We'll see if this split gets
7:16really lopsided towards Hampton, but I
7:18actually kind of think they like Kamani
7:19Vidal. Again, over the last two games,
7:21he's had at least 13 touches. So, even
7:24with Hampton, I think there's a lot of
7:26volume to go around here. I don't think
7:27that they're crazy about having Herbert
7:28drop back a billion times with this hand
7:30injury. So, and a tough offensive line.
7:33So, I do think Kamani Vidal is actually
7:35a guy you can throw into your lineup if
7:38you need to. Then, my third sneaky start
7:40is Maris Brown.
7:43Right now, Rashi Rice has ruled out
7:45Maris Brown is my wide receiver 40 on
7:47the road versus Tennessee. Yes, no,
7:49Patrick Mahomes. Yes, I am 24 spots
7:52higher than consensus. Here is why
7:54Tennessee has turned into a clear pass
7:56funnel, forcing opponents to throw at a
7:58league high plus 2.5% over expectation
8:01with a top 10 rush EPA defense over the
8:04last four weeks. The Titans are also
8:05giving up the seventh most fantasy
8:07points to wide receivers. And with Rashi
8:09Rice ruled out, Brown's role expands.
8:11He's averaged 13 points per game without
8:13Rice compared to 6.2 with him this
8:15season. Add in the bonus narrative that
8:17he's one touchdown away from a 750k
8:21incentive. And with Brown rostered in
8:23only 23% of leagues, he's a sharp week
8:2516 flex play in a game script built for
8:28passing volume. So you're in a spot here
8:30where you can maybe pick up Maris Brown
8:32in some leagues and throw him in the
8:34flex if you need him. Wide receiver 40
8:37is not terrible at all. Titans Chiefs
8:40low overunder Gardner Mchu, but I think
8:43Brown is a really nice PPR play where he
8:46could just be somebody that like I don't
8:48know if it's crazy to say. know, of
8:50course, early season when he did have
8:52that 13 point per game stretch, Xavier
8:54Worthy wasn't in there. I love Xavier
8:56Worthy, but I also think that like a
8:58arbitrage way of playing Xavier Worthy
9:00off of the back of Rashi Rice not
9:02playing is just playing Maris Brown who
9:04could outproduce Xavier Worthy pretty
9:06easily. If you remember, he's had games
9:08this year, 16 targets versus the
9:10Chargers, eight targets versus the
9:11Jaguars. It wouldn't be crazy to see an
9:14eight target game here for like six
9:16catches, 70 yards, and a touchdown for
9:18Maris Brown. Then our fourth sneaky
9:21start. This one is sneaky. Maybe the
9:24sneakiest start of the season. I want to
9:28stress
9:29this very clearly. This this sneaky
9:32start video is not drop everything and
9:36sit your
9:38Michael Wilson
9:40for air Abdullah in your flex spot. It's
9:42not what I'm saying at all. Don't sit
9:44Kyle Manongi for for Amir Abdullah. But
9:47if you're in a spot where you're down
9:48batter, you in a 16 team, did you lose a
9:51running back? Did you uh miss out on the
9:54Jaward Jordans or Audrey Estmes this
9:56week? I think Amir Abdullah isn't a bad
9:58play. Now I wouldn't flex him. Now, when
10:00I say RB2, it doesn't mean a top 24
10:02running back. It means literally
10:03somebody I would slot in my RB2 spot in
10:06my lineup. Uh, again, for flexes, I'd
10:08rather try and hope and pray that my
10:10wide receiver catches a 60-yard
10:11touchdown. With a running back, though,
10:13if you are required to start two and you
10:16are struggling to find that second
10:18running back, Amir Abdullah isn't a bad
10:21option. Just hear me out here. All
10:22right, I get that Jonathan Taylor's
10:24there, but Amir Abdullah this week is my
10:26RB49 at home versus the San Francisco
10:2949ers. 18 spots higher than consensus.
10:32And here's why. This is a pure
10:33desperation RB2, but the path points but
10:36the path to points is very real in PPR
10:38with Philip Rivers under center.
10:40Abdullah immediately saw a season high
10:42five targets last week, finishing as the
10:44RB31 with 9.7 PPR points in week 15. And
10:47we've seen this movie before with Naim
10:49Hines once leading a Riversled Colts
10:51team in receptions and finishing as a
10:53usable RB25 in points per game in 2020
10:56in Jonathan Taylor's rookie year. And if
10:58you want to go to the more obvious one,
11:00it would be Darren Sprouls next to
11:01Leenian Tomlinson. The matchup helps
11:03too. San Francisco allows 5.6 RB
11:06receptions per game, the most in the
11:08NFL. If you're just hunting for 8 to 12
11:10PPR points, Abdullah is a viable
11:13emergency option, especially considering
11:15that he was the RB8 in points per game
11:17during the fantasy playoffs last season
11:19and he's rostered in only.3%
11:22of leagues. If he finds his way into the
11:23end zone here, he could be somebody out
11:25of nowhere who just scores 20 PPR
11:27points. I'm not saying he's going to.
11:29I'm just saying he's going to run
11:32routes. He's going to get targets. they
11:34featured him in kind of pony personnel
11:35as well where they wanted uh a couple of
11:37different looks during the game with
11:38Jonathan Taylor and Abdullah out there
11:40on the field together. So Abdullah
11:42definitely makes sense for the archetype
11:43that Philip Rivers likes to use in the
11:46passing game out of the backfield. Then
11:49we have our streamers this week. First
11:50up we have Tyler Shuck. He is my QB
11:54streamer of the week. He is my QB19 at
11:56home verse the Jets. He has quietly been
11:59a strong fantasy quarterback, ranking
12:00QB1 with 17.3 points per game since week
12:0310, and he's in a solid home setup this
12:06week. New Orleans is projected for the
12:0815th most points. And Shucks rushing
12:10floor is doing a lot of the heavy
12:12lifting with 87 rushing yards and two
12:14touchdowns over his last two games with
12:16six or more carries in four straight.
12:18Now, that definitely coincides with the
12:19Alvin Kamar injury, but still he is
12:21getting utilized on the ground, which is
12:23huge for quarterback scoring in fantasy
12:26football. Rushing yards and rushing
12:28touchdowns both score more or are worth
12:31more than passing yards or passing
12:33touchdowns. The Jets are a favorable
12:35opponent for mobile quarterbacks,
12:36allowing the 10th most quarterback
12:38rushing yards, the fifth highest
12:39scramble rate to quarterbacks, and the
12:4110th most fantasy points to the
12:43position, rostered in just 10.5% of
12:46leagues. Chuck is a strong week 16
12:48streamer with both floor and upside
12:51thanks to his legs. And then we will
12:53talk about our tight end streamer here,
12:56Mike Gaseki. Now, I will throw out like
12:58I love Daltton Schultz, but he's
13:00rostered in a lot of leagues, but Mike
13:03Gaseki, I think, is perfect. He's my
13:04tight end 21 on the road versus Miami,
13:07and he is a sneaky tight end streamer
13:09after hitting a season high 75% route
13:11share last week. I will add as well,
13:13when I mentioned route share, that is
13:15from the Fantasy Life utilization report
13:17over on fantasylife.com. With T. Higgins
13:20likely sidelined again. He should be in
13:22that range. Cincinnati carries the
13:24second highest implied team total with
13:2626 points implied by Vegas. And Miami
13:28has been a dream matchup for tight ends,
13:31allowing the second most fantasy points
13:32to the position. Gaseki also did most of
13:35his work from the slot, running 30 slot
13:36routes last week, most on the Bengals,
13:39and the Dolphins have already
13:40surrendered eight touchdowns to slot
13:42aligned players, 12th most in the NFL.
13:44Add in the revenge game narrative where
13:46Mikei was drafted by the Dolphins. I
13:48believe I believe that they even uh
13:50maybe extended him. I'm trying to think
13:52through. No, I actually don't think that
13:54they extended him, but I I do believe
13:55that he was drafted by the Dolphins. So,
13:57it is a little bit, you know, ever so
13:59slightly a
14:02revenge game here versus the Dolphins. I
14:05forgot that he went to the Patriots in
14:06between that. He went to the Dolphins,
14:08then the Patriots, then the Bengals. I
14:10don't remember his Patriots
14:13stint whatsoever. Um, but regardless, I
14:17could very easily see in Miami him
14:20scoring a touchdown, hitting the weird
14:22gritty, uh, and being a really strong
14:24fantasy option. He has a really high
14:26ceiling, but low floor, but that's kind
14:28of what you want in the tight end spot.
14:29He had 20 PPR points against Buffalo
14:33just a week ago. Mike Gaseki, I think
14:36you could do a lot worse there. Now,
14:38that is going to do it for us today.
14:39Again, Emanuel Wilson, pick him up if
14:40he's out there just in case Josh Jacobs
14:42can't go tomorrow. But that is going to
14:44do it for us. As always, if you enjoy,
14:47leave a like, subscribe if you're new.
14:50And if you want my full rankings, you
14:52can find that patreon.com/rron
14:54Stewart. But if not, I appreciate you
14:55guys watching this video. Again, this is
14:57probably going to be the last one
14:58because next week will be week 17. If
14:59you're in the championship, probably
15:01don't need sneaky start, but then it's
15:02also like it's just going to be
15:03Christmas weekend. I'll be with family
15:04and everything. You'll still get my 10
15:06lessons learned. to get my uh waiverwire
15:08video, the Patreon will get my uh
15:11waiverwire article, my weekly rankings,
15:13all that good stuff. And then we're
15:14going to go into the new year. We'll get
15:15some dynasty content going regardless.
15:20Love you all and I will see you in the
15:22next one.
15:35stones like this froze ice cold
15:40ice.
