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The Best QB Draft Strategy in 2026! - 2026 Fantasy Football

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

51 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 31, 2026
Published
Fri, July 31, 2026
26
Player insights
26
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownBaker MayfieldBo NixBrock PurdyCaleb WilliamsDak PrescottDrake MayeGeorge PickensJalen HurtsJalin HyattJared GoffJayden DanielsJoe BurrowJordan Love
Player analysis

Player insights

26

A.J. Brown

NegativeRole6:43

Initial camp tape concerning; the source notes he 'looks slow and old' and connection with Drake May will take time to develop. If Brown doesn't establish himself as true alpha number one receiver on the outside, it directly impacts Drake May's ceiling. The source emphasizes this is early camp evaluation but warrants monitoring.

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Baker Mayfield

PositiveProjection38:23

Mayfield finished QB20 last season and is projected to bounce back into streaming range; the source cites his injury history, offensive line injuries, and offensive injuries as context for underperformance, noting he didn't have Mike Evans last season so that loss is not a new factor. The source likes his aggressive play style for fantasy.

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Bo Nix

NegativeProjection27:50

Nix averaged 8-14 adjusted points per game over his first two seasons and is leading tier three with high upside but significant volatility concerns. He gets Jaylen Waddle added to the wide receiver room, which should open up the offense; Denver finished sixth in dropbacks per game last season with no reason to think they fall outside top 10 this year, providing plenty of volume. Brandon Thorn has Denver as the best offensive line in the league, which will elevate floor and ceiling. However, Nix is very volatile—he was eighth in adjusted PPG and seventh in PPG overall last season but had five games below 13.5 fantasy points, making it impossible to know when he'd score 35 or 10. The source believes Waddle addition and being in year three with a good system and great offensive line may help improve the volatility, and it would be very surprising if he had a bad season given everything sets up in his favor. His foot injury is fine and he'll be ready day one of camp.

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Brock Purdy

NegativeProjection31:54

Brock Purdy has ranked 8th, 10th, and 5th in adjusted points per game over the last three years, making him available at strong value in drafts. His injury history is a concern—he gets hurt frequently—but the source views his injuries similarly to Joe Burrow's: elevated bad luck rather than reckless play. Purdy will likely outperform his ADP. The 49ers signed Mike Evans, a red-zone superstar, creating upside if rushing touchdowns convert to passing touchdowns to Evans. Purdy is a highly efficient quarterback with significant upside this season; the source projects he could throw for 40 touchdowns given his career-long efficiency profile, the addition of Mike Evans as a red zone weapon, and the 49ers' scheme strength. The source identifies him as one of the favorite tier four quarterbacks for upside in single-QB redraft leagues.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection14:15

Ranked 11th in adjusted points per game last year with glaring accuracy issues and a weak floor; had five games below 13 fantasy points, which is rare for high-end QB production. The source is optimistic about year-two system development with Burden and Loveland ramping up, which should elevate both floor and ceiling. However, accuracy concerns may cap his highest-end outcomes, as that trait is difficult to teach. The combo of Burden, Loveland, and Caleb all in year two of Ben Johnson's system, plus replacement of inefficient targets (Zaccheaus, Moore) with efficient ones (Kmet, Loveland), should improve efficiency and floor. The source positions him in the elite tier alongside Justin Herbert, noting that people may be more surprised by Herbert's inclusion in this tier than Caleb's, indicating strong confidence in Williams' ceiling despite outdoor game concerns.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveValue21:28

Tier three QB with highly variable adjusted PPG rankings since 2019 (5, 1, 8, 17, 3, 24, 10); down years in 2022 and 2024 were injury-related. When healthy, he provides mid-to-low end QB1 production with high-end ceiling in shootouts. Last season set career high of 600 pass attempts and second-most passing yards of his career, coinciding with George Pickens' arrival. The source calls him 'a great pick for the cost you're getting' and notes he will be 'pretty solid' and 'good,' though unlikely to be a league winner without 5,000+ yards and 35+ TDs. Tier four recommendation with significant ADP discount if he falls multiple rounds past tier three options.

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Drake Maye

PositiveProjection5:23

Second in points per game last season; added A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs, improved offensive line; benefits from positive game scripts and short fields that made passing attack efficient. Rushing efficiency dipped from 7.8 to 4.4 yards per carry but the source expects bounce-back in mobility. Described as very safe option with league-winner upside; ceiling depends on A.J. Brown's camp performance and connection development.

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George Pickens

PositiveRole22:02

Elevates both the floor and ceiling of the Dallas offense and provides Dak Prescott with a number one receiver in case CeeDee Lamb misses time. Lamb played through injury and missed a couple games last season; without Pickens in prior years, Dak's production fell off significantly. With Pickens now in place, the offense has insurance against Lamb injury, and Dak can maintain startability even if either top receiver is sidelined.

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Jalen Hurts

PositiveProjection11:51

The source identifies Hurts as a great QB to target this season, noting his historical range as QB5, 1, 2, 4, and 9 in adjusted points per game since 2021. The source expects a bounce-back season driven by: (1) improved coaching under Shawn McVay, who will emphasize Hurts' rushing ability; (2) increased rushing attempts (only 6.6 per game last season vs. 10 per game average prior four years); and (3) rushing touchdown recovery (8 last season vs. 14 per year average prior four years). At 28 years old with no concerning injury history, the source believes Hurts' production returns this season. Expected to run for 12–15 rushing touchdowns after averaging 14 per year over the prior four seasons. The source sees significant upside from a quarterback previously drafted in round three now available in round six or seven due to Eagles' poor 2025 perception, especially if the offense opens up under Shanahan.

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Jalin Hyatt

PositiveValue25:37

Knee injury recovery is progressing very quickly; reports indicate he looks good to go already and is expected to be ready for week one, consistent with how young, highly athletic wide receivers tend to recover faster from knee injuries. The source recommends taking him at the end of round two as part of a high-upside stack with Levis, especially in Underdog leagues where the pairing offers significant ceiling potential.

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Jared Goff

PositiveProjection34:02

Goff is positioned as a tier-one passing quarterback with elite upside this season; the source projects 45 passing touchdowns and 5,000 yards, citing four straight seasons of 4,400+ passing yards and 29+ passing touchdowns (37 and 34 over the last two years). The loss of David Montgomery removes the ground-game option inside the 10-yard line, forcing increased red zone passing volume. Goff's rushing output is negligible (10.1 fantasy points over two years, <4 rushing yards per game), so upside is entirely passing-based. The source emphasizes the easiest NFL schedule, dome games, a bad defense forcing shootouts every week, and a coordinator who aggressively piles on points, all creating a ceiling scenario where Goff could match Stafford's 2024 season with amazing skill players. The source's favorite tier four quarterback for upside in single-QB redraft leagues.

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Jayden Daniels

PositiveProjection7:12

Third in adjusted points per game as rookie (7.35 PPG rushing alone); last season plagued by injury setbacks—played weeks 1-2, missed 3-4, played 5-7, missed 8, played 9, missed 10-13, played 14, missed rest of season. Injury concerns dropped him from potential second-round pick to round six availability, creating discount. Highest ceiling of tier two QBs due to rushing production and passing ability; success depends on health and injury prevention this season.

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Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection9:27

The source is excited about Burrow's 2026 outlook, projecting him as a legitimate contender for the QB1 spot with 5,000 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his range of outcomes; most likely outcome is QB3–5 range. Burrow was QB5 in adjusted points per game in 2024 when healthy with Chase. The source emphasizes his weekly upside is insane and loves him on Underdog when paired with Bengals players, and as a redraft target. Offensive line looks good this year, Chase and Higgins are currently healthy, Eric All is a good blocking tight end who will be used heavily, and Chase Brown can be efficient on the ground while also being used in the receiving game. This is the best offensive line of Burrow's career with skill players healthy and continuity in the offense.

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Jordan Love

NegativeProjection11:51

Love is projected to remain in tier five with low ceiling and floor despite the Packers' expected pass-heavy lean; the source explicitly avoids drafting him even in superflex formats due to lack of rushing production (career 10 rushing yards per game, one rushing TD over two years) and failure to break out despite ample opportunity. The source notes he should run more but doesn't, making it difficult to construct a top-eight QB narrative.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection0:12

Tier-one QB with locked-in certainty and elite consistency; has been QB1, QB2, or QB1 in every season since 2020, with six consecutive top-two positional finishes and only one missed game over seven years. The source argues this certainty justifies third-round ADP despite high opportunity cost, noting he's a near-lock for top-three QB finish with very high-end ceiling. On Underdog, has fallen to pick 40-42 at times, which the source views as undervalued given his production floor and ceiling combination.

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Justin Herbert

PositiveProjection17:30

Elite top-eight tier QB with huge upside for the Chargers this year. The source is all in on the Chargers offense after they upgraded from a bottom-three offensive line to a top-five line and replaced Greg Roman with Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator. Herbert is an exceptional quarterback who hasn't hit his ceiling the last couple of years due to offensive line issues; he has a 5,000-yard passing season on his resume, led the team to 11-5 last season, and was QB2 through week nine before the offense fell apart. The source recommends heavy exposure to this team, with Herbert as a great way to gain that exposure since he goes at the end of the QB run and sometimes falls past ADP.

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Kyler Murray

NegativeProjection35:58

Kyler is framed as one of the riskier quarterbacks but with elite upside comparable to or exceeding Nix and Goff; the source recommends pairing him with a safe QB (Stafford, Goff) at the turn if targeting two quarterbacks early. The bull case rests on an elite offensive coordinator, rushing upside (reduced from prior years but still present), elite skill players (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison), and a locked starting job. The source emphasizes that despite a real floor risk ("what if he is just bad?"), upside wins championships, and at his ADP, dropping him if he underperforms has minimal championship impact, making him a worthwhile shot in the mid-rounds. Part of an awesome tier three range (Nix, Stafford, Purdy, Goff, Kyler, Mahomes, Baker) where all players have upside.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection0:12

Tier-one QB despite injury concerns (missed 15 games over last five years) because he's the most likely true league-winner among all QBs; in his two MVP seasons, he scored 25–28 points per game, far above the 21–22 PPG ceiling of most tier-two QBs. The source projects if everything clicks, Lamar runs for 1,000 yards and 8 TDs while throwing for 3,500 yards and 35–40 TDs. Last season's poor performance attributed to mobility limitations from injury; the source expects rushing production to improve this year, making him deserving of tier-one ranking despite underrating from some.

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Luther Burden

PositiveRole15:59

Year-two breakout candidate in Ben Johnson's system; drafted by Johnson and set to be featured after ramping up late last season. Burden will replace inefficient targets previously going to Olamide Zaccheaus, with Johnson very excited about using him. The source expects efficiency to skyrocket this season as Burden moves from limited early-season usage to full utilization alongside Cole Loveland.

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Malik Willis

NegativeBreakout36:31

Willis offers a rushing-upside thesis with potential 1,000-yard rushing season; however, the source tempers expectations by noting his six career starts show only two games over 122 passing yards, three total passing touchdowns, and under 45 rushing yards per game (775 yards annualized), paired with poor receiving weapons (Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell). The source would conditionally consider him in one of three redraft leagues if paired with another QB, but warns of downside risk if the Dolphins' offense stalls.

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Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection29:42

Stafford finished fourth in adjusted points per game last season with 4,700 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, and only six interceptions despite having just one rushing yard all season (0.1 fantasy points in rushing). The Rams are projected as the #1 scoring team in the NFL by half a point per game. If Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both stay healthy, Stafford will have another great season. The main downside is the Rams' elite defense may lead to blowouts and fewer second-half passing opportunities, but the projected touchdown volume should offset this concern. Part of an awesome tier three range (Nix, Stafford, Purdy, Goff, Kyler, Mahomes, Baker) where all players have upside; the source recommends attacking any of these tier three QBs if they fall well past ADP.

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Mike Evans

PositiveRole33:14

The 49ers signed Mike Evans as a red-zone specialist. While Evans may not be a dominant wide receiver between the 20s, he will be a superstar in the red zone. The source suggests upside if the 49ers convert rushing touchdowns to passing touchdowns to Evans near the goal line, similar to the Rams' strategy last season, positioning him to capitalize on short-yardage opportunities.

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Patrick Mahomes

NegativeProjection36:57

Mahomes finished as QB3 in adjusted points per game last season but is projected to decline to QB10-15 range due to intentional reduction in rushing attempts and scrambles; the Chiefs acquired Ken Walker to shift toward more pass attempts, eliminating the rushing spike that drove his 2025 production. He finished 13th and 11th in adjusted PPG in 2023-24, and while he's a full go to start camp with no lingering knee concerns, the team explicitly wants to reduce his rush attempts as Mahomes acknowledged scrambling too much in 2024.

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Rashod Bateman

NegativeRole3:54

Ravens WR described as 'very, very overrated' by the source; the source notes he's 'always there' but 'just not that good.' Ravens drafted Surratt and Jacoby Lane, potentially to push Bateman in the receiving corps. The source suggests Bateman's role may be challenged by these new additions, indicating depth-chart risk.

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Trevor Lawrence

NegativeProjection20:06

Tier three QB; finished seventh in adjusted points per game last season, his only top-ten finish in his career. His production spike was driven by rushing touchdowns (9 last season vs. 2, 5, 4, 3 in prior years), but rush attempts only increased from 4.0 to 4.8 per game, indicating regression is likely. The appeal is safety: he has a great coordinator and four legit NFL wide receivers, with enough depth that the passing attack remains strong even if two receivers get injured. He's a very safe pick but not expected to finish as a top-five QB this season.

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Will Levis

PositiveValue25:07

Levis averaged 35 rushing yards per game and ran for 9 touchdowns in only 12 starts while looking great as a passer; he was a clear talent elevator for the offense, with the offense tanking when he came off the field. Offensive line improvements expected this offseason should help him stay healthy while maintaining his rushing production. The source recommends drafting Levis earlier than current ADP, especially in Underdog leagues where he can be stacked with Hyatt as a very high upside pairing. Tier three quarterback due to need for more time to prove he can elevate into tier one; doesn't have the same mobility as Jalen Hurts and probably won't run for as many touchdowns or rushing yards as Jayden Daniels, though he is highly mobile and looks good as a passer.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

497
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here, back with another video, back with the final positional rankings video of the off season. We've done running back,
0:06receiver, tight end, on to quarterback.
0:08Four point passing touchdown, that's what the scoring format is for this one.
0:12So, tier one, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson.
0:15Honestly, if you wanted to make it Josh Allen tier one, Lamar tier two, then tier three of those next guys, I'd be
0:22fine with that. I just didn't want to make too many tiers in this video, but there is definitely a separation between
0:28Lamar and Josh Allen as we'll go over, but Josh Allen number one, should be number one in everyone's rankings since 2020. Josh Allen has been the
0:35quarterback one, two, or one, one, two, one, two, and one.
0:41You know what you're getting. And that's why you're paying this elevated price tag. Other quarterbacks do have a similar ceiling or even potentially a
0:50higher 98th, 99th percentile ceiling in their range of outcome.
0:54But no other quarterback, and maybe no other player has the locked-in certainty that Josh Allen has. He has missed one game over the last seven years. He has
1:06six consecutive top two positional finishes. That is why he deserves to be a third round pick. I understand the opportunity cost in round three is high.
1:16I would not take him in round two. I would not take him in the early third round, but as you move into the mid
1:21third and definitely into the late third round this season, I've seen him fall into the fourth round at times. That is
1:28a great opportunity to get him because of the certainty. Um, definitely on Underdog, he's been falling to pick like 40, 41, 42 at times. I think that's a
1:38little crazy. The locked-in production, locked-in certainty is extraordinarily valuable, and he still comes with a very high-end ceiling. Uh, very much a near
1:47lock to be a top three quarterback in any sort of season. Uh, so yeah, worth it and worth it more if you think you
1:54have an edge in your league. So, if you typically make the playoffs or typically a top three team, guess what you can't
2:00do in season? It's trade for Josh Allen, trade for these top end quarterbacks.
2:03And so, if you say, "You know what? If I lost my third round pick, I still think I would have a really good team." We'll
2:08take Josh Allen in round three.
2:09Lamar Jackson, second quarterback here in the quarterback one 8 9 5 4 1 and 13 since 2019. He's also missed 15 games
2:20over the last 5 years. So, again, that's why you see the ADP drop-off going from Josh Allen down to Lamar Jackson. Not
2:27only is Lamar far more likely to miss time, but he's not a lock to be a top three quarterback when healthy.
2:35I include Lamar in tier one though, because he's far and away the most likely quarterback among everyone else to be a true league winner. You know,
2:44like some people can be a league winner because quarterback was low scoring.
2:49You know, they end up with like 22 points per game, second quarterbacks at 21, a bunch at 20, and it's like, yeah,
2:54it's a quote-unquote league winner cuz it's the best quarterback, and you provide an edge there. But, if we're talking like true league winning
2:59outcomes where you're scoring 25 26 27 28 points per game, that's Lamar, and it's not really a lot of players behind him. And so, I think
3:09that's why he deserves to be in this tier, because if everything clicks with Lamar, he runs for 1,000 yards and eight
3:15touchdowns while also throwing for 3,500 yards and 35 40 more touchdowns, not many players can do that, right? A great season for most of the quarterbacks,
3:26even in tier two, is to be at 21 22 points per game. That would be a really high-end season for them. Lamar has
3:33shown us in his two MVP seasons he can drop, you know, between 25 and 28 points per game. I also think don't be worried
3:41too much about last season. Anyone watching knew his mobility was cut.
3:45Like, and it's tough for Lamar because for other quarterbacks if that happens, well, they have the passing to fall down on. And it's not that Lamar is a bad
3:52passing quarterback, it's that he's a great passing quarterback because teams are terrified of him on the ground. And so, what he does to defenses because of
4:02his mobility scares them so much, they have to take that into account so much that people become wide open down field
4:08and that like I don't know again cuz he's not a great pocket passer, but it makes his passing stats look really, really good cuz dudes
4:16are wide open down field cuz teams are so scared of the scramble. Well, if they're not scared of the scramble, which they weren't last season when he
4:22was injured uh and still playing through the injury even coming off of it, well, now the passing numbers are going to
4:27suffer. Now the offense is going to suffer. He's also not going to scramble as much. So, everything takes a hit.
4:32That's why he was so bad last season.
4:34That should improve this year. Uh they did draft Surratt, they drafted Jacoby Lane. Uh maybe one of them can push Bateman because Bateman's always there,
4:41too, but he's just not that good. Um very, very overrated wide receiver. Uh maybe one of them can push him. Uh but
4:48yeah.
4:49Mostly, you want the rushing to be there and you just want the core of this team to be solid. And that is a Flowers. He
4:55needs to Flowers stay healthy, but definitely I think deserves to be in tier one. I think people underrate him a little bit this season uh but got to
5:01stay healthy for sure for Lamar. Tier two.
5:03The the tier I want, right? If I If you ask me like to pick a tier to draft, it is either
5:09tier two or tier four, but my first pick is tier two. I think everyone in this tier has just exceptional upside and a
5:16very, very high-end floor and is someone who in a you know, one quarterback redraft league, I think you want to be
5:23in this general range when drafting. So, it's Drake May, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, and Justin Herbert. For Drake May, he was
5:32second in points per game last season.
5:34Then they added A.J. Brown, they added Romeo Dobbs, they improved the offensive line. They're not going to have a cupcake schedule, which you could argue
5:42benefits him from a volume perspective, but uh there were so many teams last year that couldn't do anything against them. They had short fields. They
5:50constantly had the ball on offense in a positive situation, which makes your passing attack more efficient because you can run it a ton. It's not an
5:57obvious passing situation at any point.
6:00Makes it really difficult on defenses.
6:01So, there was a reason he ended up being very, very good last season. Scheduling matters. Easy schedules are a benefit for everyone. Um we did also though see
6:09the efficiency drop off a little bit in the rushing department. Dropped from 7.8 yd per carry down to 4.4. Um you know, at 4.4 yd per carry
6:19maybe the the truest, you know, 23, 24 point per game seasons aren't totally possible, but I still think he's a very
6:26mobile quarterback. I think that bump bounces up this season. I think if they're in more competitive games, also scramble a little bit more often. Uh
6:33just a very safe option. Um has enough mobility to be a league winner while also not having too much mobility to
6:39kind of put himself in harm's way too often. One thing I want to watch is A.J.
6:43Brown in camp. I'll be honest, the initial tape out there from A.J. Brown in camp doesn't look good. Like it's so
6:50early, you can't tell anything, but the connection is going to take some time to develop. But, he looks like old I don't
6:55know. He looks slow and old. So, we'll see how that looks. Uh obviously again, that's day one of camp, but watch that because if A.J. Brown isn't
7:04this true alpha number one X, Y, Z receiver on the outside, well, that obviously impacts the ceiling for Drake May, but we're still kind of early to
7:12know that. Uh Jayden Daniels after him Uh I don't want last season to take away from how insane his rookie season was.
7:20He was third in adjusted points per game as a rookie thanks to 7.35 points per game on rushing alone. And then last season, he just never got
7:29going. He plays weeks one and two, then he misses weeks three and four. He plays weeks five through seven, he misses week
7:35eight, comes back in weeks nine, misses 10 through 13, comes back in 14, misses the rest of the season. Like he just he
7:41never got to play more than a couple games in a row before suffering a setback, suffering another injury.
7:48Um that's why he's not a third round pick.
7:50Like, if he honestly, he might be a second round pick if he backed up his rookie season with a repeat of that
7:56performance. Um basically, people are scared of the injuries, right? I mean, he would be ahead of Lamar in everyone's rankings had he not gotten injured so
8:06much last season. Um but you're getting that discount, right?
8:10That's why he doesn't go in round three, in round four, in round five. You can routinely get him in round six, and I do
8:16think that kind of takes some of that risk away. Of course, you want him to play a little bit more safe, but also
8:23the upside he has in fantasy comes from the fact that he is going to scramble so much, have so much production on the
8:29ground. And he was great as a passer as a rookie. Again, I don't want people to forget how good he was. Um he's probably
8:37got the highest ceiling of any tier two quarterback. I think he deserves to be this high in the rankings. You could
8:43argue him at third overall for the or third positionally for the quarterbacks.
8:47It's just can he stay healthy? And this season is going to tell us a lot. Uh we total we kind of like don't know the
8:53answer to that question. But if he can protect himself a little bit more, if he can just go down, he's a very, very
8:59talented player. I'll also note, skill position-wise, it would have been nice if they signed number two. I think they're going to, but can they just go
9:06after Diggs, go after Keenan? Like, go after someone right now. Get him on the roster, get him in camp, you know,
9:13ramping up. Like, I don't want this signing of Stefon Diggs or something to happen in week eight or week nine of the
9:18season. Like, they have Terry McLaurin, a rookie, and nothing. Like, they don't have talent right now in pass catcher.
9:25They're going to rely on Jeremy Sprinkle to turn a ton of screen passes into a lot of yards. Like, I think Jaylen
9:29Daniels is good enough to succeed with this cast, but it would be nice if he didn't have to do everything himself.
9:35So, I think that's honestly the biggest reason why I put May over Daniels. It's just the supporting cast is better for
9:40May, but watch watch watch for A.J.
9:42Brown.
9:43Joe Burrow, I will be honest. Uh, pretty excited about Joe Burrow. And if you wanted to put him number three, and
9:51I think that's why I like tier two, is you could make a legitimate case most not all of these guys, but for most of
9:58these guys to lead this tier and to be the most likely player to push Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson for that number
10:04one overall quarterback spot this season. And Joe Burrow is right up there. The mobility will impact him, right? Like he is not even remotely
10:12close to Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson as a runner, Josh Allen. He's not going to be doing that on the ground. So, he
10:18has to do it through there. But man, is he set up for a really good season. He has struggled to stay healthy at times.
10:24When he gets healthy, one of uh, Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins goes down. And so, it's like the offense itself seems to never be healthy. He
10:33always has a terrible offensive line, and so that's a problem. He never has a good ground game, you know, helping him
10:38out.
10:39A season, well, the offensive line looks like it's going to be pretty good this year. Right now, Chase and Higgins are healthy.
10:45The improved offensive line with also, it seems like they're going to play Eric All a lot, and he's like a really good
10:49blocking tight end. You have a good offensive line and Eric All, and maybe Chase Brown can actually be efficient on the ground while also being someone
10:56who's going to be used heavily in the receiving game.
10:59All of a sudden, you get a healthy season from Joe Burrow. I mean, he could easily lead the league in passing yards,
11:06passing touchdowns. He has 5,000 passing yards, 50 touchdowns in his range of outcomes. He was the quarterback five in adjusted points per game in 2024 when he
11:15and Ja'Marr Chase stayed healthy. I still think the most likely outcome is he ends up in that quarterback three to five range, but that's pretty nice if
11:22you're getting him as the quarterback five.
11:25And truly, his weekly upside is insane.
11:28Even without the mobility, every week he steps onto the football field to get a 450 and five passing touchdowns. I don't
11:35know. I I'm pretty excited about him this season. We're going to need everyone to stay healthy, but it's nice knowing he's got the best offensive line
11:41of his career right now. His skill players are healthy. Everything is staying the same. They're not changing a bunch around the offense, so they can
11:49just continue with what's been working.
11:51Uh definitely love him on Underdog when paired with some Bengals players, but even in redraft, he's a great quarterback to go after this season. Uh
11:59Jalen Hurts, another great quarterback to go after this season. Uh since 2021, he's been the quarterback five, one, two, four, and nine in adjusted points per game.
12:09The drop-off last season can mostly be attributed to Kevin Patullo being a donkey. Um just no idea how to run a
12:15successful offense. Uh for him, uh the other drop-off was the rushing though.
12:19And then it's difficult to know how vocal, cuz Jalen Hurts was relatively vocal in not wanting to run the ball as
12:26much. How vocal was he behind the scenes as well? Was he keep Was he really out there saying, "I will not be running as
12:32much?" Uh problem for him is there's also chatter that people don't think he's that good of a quarterback. And so, if he wants to continue being a starting
12:39quarterback in the NFL, he's probably going to have to start running the ball more. Um and I got to think Shawn McVay
12:44is going to be like, "Listen, you're such a cheat code on the ground. We got to go back to utilizing that." Only ran
12:49the ball 6.6 times per game last season compared to an average of 10 rushing attempts per game in the prior four
12:55seasons. He only ran for eight touchdowns. Got to use air quotes there because it's eight rushing touchdowns.
13:01That's a lot. But for him, he averaged 14 rushing touchdowns per year the prior four years. Um I think that bounces back. I think the
13:09rush attempts go up. The rushing touchdowns come back. He's only 28 years old. He does not have an a concerning injury history uh from a lower leg
13:16standpoint where he can't run the ball anymore. I think it kind of returns this season. Um the reason I've said my goal
13:24is to draft a top eight quarterback in every draft. Like I've mentioned that a number of times here is that all these
13:30guys are set up to crush, and Jalen Hurts is no different. Um Again, we have concerns for different ones of these guys, but at the end of
13:38the day, just give me a top-eight quarterback at value. If it happens to be Drake May that falls, or Daniels that
13:44falls, or Hurts that falls, or Burrow that falls, I don't really care which one of them falls past ADP, take the one
13:50that falls, and they're probably going to be pretty good in fantasy this season. Um but, you could make another legitimate case that if Hurts is set up
13:57to run for 12 to 15 touchdowns to start adding to his rushing production again, and the offense can open up again under
14:04Shanahan, well, maybe there's actually significant upside from a quarterback that used to be going every time in round three that you can get in round six, or maybe even
14:13round seven at times, cuz people hate the Eagles after what they did last season. Uh last two, Caleb and Herbert, I think have the weakest arguments to
14:23being a top-two quarterback, or for pushing Josh Allen to be number one. Why I include them in this tier, though, is
14:31because if they do hit, the path is thinner, but if they do hit the high end of their outcome, they're going to be awesome, and they're
14:38going to be someone you want, and they definitely have a better chance and higher ceiling of the quarterbacks going in the tier behind them.
14:45And they're surrounded by talent. I think that's the big part is that like if you look at both the Bears and the
14:51Chargers, these are just teams that you want to be investing in this season.
14:55Great coordinators, great skill players, highly talented quarterbacks. It's not a guarantee that either one of these guys
15:02hit, and um the rushing aspect of a Daniels or a um Jalen Hurts is significantly higher than
15:12Williams and Herbert, but they're just such strong picks, I think you have to include them in this tier, but they definitely deserve to be
15:19at the bottom of this tier. But, uh yeah, Caleb, one of the more controversial players this season, 11th in adjusted points per game last year,
15:26uh but the accuracy issues were pretty glaring, and the floor games really hurt you. He had five games below 13 fantasy
15:34points last season. Uh doesn't happen to a lot of quarterbacks at the high end of production, did not happen to the
15:41quarterbacks ahead of him. Uh personally, I'm pretty optimistic about Caleb this season.
15:47The accuracy concerns me because that's not something you can always teach. It just might be that he's a very inaccurate quarterback, and that is
15:53going to keep him from achieving, you know, the highest end outcomes in his career.
15:59But, man, the combo of Burden and Loveland being in year two of this system, along with Caleb being in year two of the system as well, uh really
16:08just going to elevate the floor and the ceiling this offense. I think the floor bottomed out at times last year because
16:14you've got a young quarterback in a new complex system with, you know, at times Burden and Loveland both were really not playing at all or
16:22just being ramped up, just being new to not only the NFL but the system as well.
16:27And it just takes time. It takes time for these these guys to develop, takes time for them to be fully utilized. They
16:33finally ramped up at the end of last season. These two going to be featured, Loveland and Burden, and these are two
16:37players Ben Johnson's very excited about using. He went out and drafted them.
16:41I don't know, I just think like the talent is there. Now the opportunity is there. He's not going to have Olamide
16:47Zaccheaus out there running a ton of super super inefficient routes. You're replacing that with Luther Burden.
16:54You're replacing uh potentially targets that went to DJ Moore last season with highly efficient targets to Cole Kmet and Loveland. Like, the efficiency
17:00should skyrocket this season. And if that does, and he stays relatively mobile, and they've got a brutal schedule. I mean, look at like who they
17:08play to end the season. Okay, and the Bears do not have that good of a defense. They they had a lot of
17:12turnovers last year, but that kind of helped them look better than they are.
17:17They are not that good of a defense. So, teams are going to score a lot of points against the Bears. Week 11 on for
17:22Chicago at the Saints, at the Lions, versus the Jaguars, at the Dolphins.
17:27That's not going to be a shootout, but they're probably going to score 40 in that week.
17:31At the Bills, versus the Lions, versus versus the Packers, then versus the Lions. Truly, we're looking at like six shootouts and
17:40a blowout win against the Dolphins.
17:42Like, they could, in all of the like double-digit weeks this season through the fantasy playoffs, every single week you could be looking at this and being
17:48like, "Oh, another 53-point total for the Chicago Bears. Another game where this highly concentrated passing attack is going to be going up against a team
17:56that's going to drop 30 on their defense."
17:59I don't know. I mean, a lot of upside for the Bears this season. People are scared because they have those outdoor
18:03games. It's not a guarantee that it's going to be a blizzard, right? And if it's not, upside, huge upside for Chicago this season, and huge upside for
18:10Justin Herbert and the Chargers this year. I think people will probably be more surprised I have Herbert in this tier than Caleb. Most people have it as
18:17elite top seven. I have it as elite top eight this year. I'm all in on the Chargers offense. They go from a
18:22bottom-three offensive line after all the injuries last season to a top-five offensive line this season. They go from Greg Roman offensive coordinator to Mike
18:32McDaniel. So, I I still absolutely believe that he is one of the best play designers in the NFL. Um, Herbert's great. Herbert's an
18:41exceptional quarterback. We just haven't seen him hit his ceiling the last couple of years because of the offensive line.
18:47But, let's not forget he has a 5,000 passing yards season under his belt.
18:52Even with a turnstile offensive line last season, and injuries to running back, he led this team to an 11 and five
18:59record. He was the quarterback two through week nine last season before the offense completely fell apart. And and this is like when he was kind of playing
19:07through injury, as well. You're going to want heavy exposure to this team, and Herbert is a great way to do that,
19:12because not only uh does he like have all this upside, he goes at the end, and he sometimes goes a little bit behind these guys. So, make
19:20your goal to get a top seven quarterback, but don't reach. Don't reach for any of these guys. If one of them falls a good amount past their ADP,
19:26take him. If none of them fall, take Herbert. I think that's basically my plan this season. And if that doesn't occur, take a tier four quarterback.
19:34Now, we're on to tier three right now, and you're like, "Okay, well, why do you hate the tier three quarterbacks?" I
19:38don't. The problem is, I view tier three as better than tier four, but the cost is so much greater. Like, if you just wait for tier four, and you
19:47kind of take the tier four quarterback that falls, you might get a three or a four round discount. And for these tier
19:54three quarterbacks, we are still going in kind of the end of a range of skill player that's still very, very high
19:58upside, and so the opportunity cost is there. But, tier three quarterbacks do still deserve to be in tier three. So, it's Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and
20:06Jackson Dart. For Lawrence, seventh in adjusted points per game last season, uh and it was the only time he finished uh
20:13inside the top 10 of his career. So, a big, big, big boost in production last season came off the rushing touchdowns.
20:19Heading into last year, he had rushing touchdown counts of two, five, four, and three. And then he had nine rushing touchdowns last season, and it's not
20:27like the rush down spike. Like, if he all of a sudden ran for 50, 60, 70 more rush attempts than he ever had, sure. Uh
20:34he was at four rush attempts per game last or heading into last season, and that jumped to 4.8. So, he had 0.8 more
20:40rush attempts per game. Uh that is not enough to justify a huge skyrocket into nine rushing touchdowns. That's obviously going to regress. Um the
20:49appeal here is the safety. He's got a great coordinator, and he's got four legit NFL wide receivers. A lot of these
20:55teams are one injury away from really dropping off that production for receiver. Literally, you could have two of the Jaguars wide receivers get
21:04injured, and And just then run a ton of like heavy personnel sets, and just have the remaining two on the field, and
21:09they'll still be a pretty good passing attack. So, there's really no risk that his skill players get injured, and that's why he underperforms. And when
21:17you have a good coordinator and a good quarterback and enough skill players around him, it creates a lot of safety.
21:22So, he's a very safe pick, uh but just not going to be a top five quarterback this season. Uh Dak Prescott, Dak since
21:282019 has been the quarterback 5 1 8 17 3 24 and then 10 in adjusted points per game. So, kind of all over the place,
21:38but the down years in '22 and '24 were injury related. Uh when healthy, he's been someone you're starting every single week, uh because he basically
21:47just always provides that mid-to-low end quarterback one production, has that high-end ceiling if Dallas gets into a shootout. Last season, he set a career
21:55high of 600 pass attempts, threw for the second most yards of his career. I don't think that's a coincidence that it came
22:02in the same season that George Pickens arrived. Uh Pickens not only elevates the floor and the ceiling of the offense, but he provides Dak with a
22:09number one in case Lamb misses time.
22:11That happened last season, right? Lamb was playing through injury, but also missed a couple games. Um When that happens and you don't have
22:17George Pickens, we see the production really fall off for Dak Prescott. But now Pickens is there. So, if either one of these two gets injured, misses a
22:24little bit of time, we don't have to worry that we're not going to be able to start Dak Prescott. Um it's also really
22:29nice to see Flannoy see he was breaking out last season. Um there were reasons to kind of like him as a prospect. Um
22:36didn't come from like a top-end school, but like if he's an exciting prospect, and then he starts to break out last season, and
22:42then all of a sudden, this kid is like the talk of camp, the talk of the offense the off-season. The coaches are
22:49absolutely in love with Flannoy. He's going to be used a ton, clearly the number three wide receiver. We're going to use a ton of three wide receiver
22:57sets. He's a very exciting player, and he also elevates that floor and ceiling, because if Lamb and Pickens are stretching the field and you know,
23:05they're constantly being double covered and have safety over the top and you have Flannoy breaking out in the shallow area of the field, all of a sudden this
23:11offense it's like how do you stop them, right? They're a very, very high-end offense and that's obviously great for Dak. So, another quarterback that
23:20really exciting from a ceiling perspective, the only issue with Dak is it's all coming through the air. He's kind of like Joe Burrow in that sense,
23:27two or fewer rushing touchdowns in five consecutive seasons. Probably going to run for like 11 or 12 rushing yards per game. So, you're getting less than two
23:34points per game in the rushing department. That's how he can finish 10th in points per game last season despite throwing for 4,500 yards and 30
23:42touchdowns.
23:43So, again, in this tier he's similar to Trevor Lawrence where he's going to be good. Going to be happy you drafted Dak
23:48Prescott. He's going to be pretty solid for you, but he is not going to be a league winner or at least it's unlikely he is
23:56cuz he's going to have to throw for 5,000 yards and like 35 touchdowns. Um But, a great pick. Honestly, a great
24:02pick for the cost you're getting, Matt.
24:04Then Jackson Dart sensational as a rookie. We we want to try sometimes not to overvalue that and say, "Well, it was a rookie season." We
24:12have seen quarterbacks, looking at you CJ Stroud, who dominate as a rookie and then fall off. You could throw Jayden Daniels in the mix there, but that was
24:20injury related. But, Jackson Dart is that same mold of quarterback as Jayden Daniels and at times in his rookie season, that's what was holding him
24:27back. Dart wouldn't go down. And it's like you're not you're not Josh Allen, right? Like you're not this huge guy who
24:33can It's not that he's small, but Josh Allen obviously is massive. Um Josh Allen can run dudes over and get up
24:41and the other guy's hurt, right?
24:42Jackson Dart tries to run people over, he gets up and he and he's hurt, right?
24:46He's the one that has to limp to the sideline. He's the one that has the concussion.
24:50Just go down and the coaching staff has talked a lot about how they are talking to him about that. That is a huge
24:55emphasis this offseason is Dart, you're so important to this team. We don't care about the extra yard or two. We don't
25:02care. What we care about is that you're the starting quarterback. So, go down, get out of bounds. I think he'll improve
25:07on that. Um you don't want to like take that out of the player, that like drive to get more yards. But at the end of the
25:12day, the extra yard is not worth it to stay healthy. Uh and so I think that's going to improve this off season. Uh but
25:19yeah, I mean really exciting because he averaged 35 rushing yards per game. He ran for nine touchdowns in only 12 starts. He looked great as a passer. It
25:28was so obvious when he came off the field that the offense just tanked. Like he was so far and away the best
25:33quarterback. A great talent elevator.
25:36Like and this is all without Neighbors.
25:37He played with Neighbors for what? Like half a game? And Neighbors, look at the reports. We're going to talk about this
25:41in tomorrow's video. Dude looks good to go already. I mean, shocking. Shocking how fast I mean, not completely shocking cuz at times we've talked about how
25:50these young, highly athletic wide receivers recover so much faster from these knee injuries.
25:54But Neighbors looks like he's going to be like good to go in week one.
25:58Dart should be skyrocketing ADP right now and he's not. So, draft Dart if you can right now on Underdog. Pair him with
26:05Neighbors. Neighbors should be going at the end of round two. At this point.
26:08Take Neighbors at the end of round two.
26:09Take Dart earlier than ADP. Get those stacks if you can on Underdog because this is a very, very, very high upside
26:16pairing. But even for those in your redraft leagues, the volume on the ground will be there.
26:21The skill players around him are there.
26:23I still think he's got to go in tier three because we need to see it for kind of more time for him to elevate into
26:29tier one. And he doesn't have that same mobility. Like he's probably not going to run for as many touchdowns as Hurts
26:35or as much rushing yards as Jayden Daniels.
26:38But I say probably because he he might.
26:40Like he is highly mobile and he looks really good as a passer as well.
26:45Tier four.
26:46This is the range again. If I'm not in tier two, I honestly probably want to be in tier four because of the huge ADP
26:52discount. I think Dak is a great pick. I think that uh um uh Dart is a great pick.
26:57But if you ask me would rather have them or like if Goff happened to fall four rounds past them, well, give me Goff. It
27:04just It depends also on the ADP of your site. If their ADPs are very close to tier three, take tier three. But this
27:09tier three of Nix, Stafford, Purdy, Goff, Kyler, Mahomes, Baker is an awesome range to be in. And if any one of these guys falls well past ADP and
27:20becomes last in this tier, I want to be attacking that cuz this entire tier has upside. Not the upside of all the tiers
27:27above. That's why they're in tier four.
27:29But man, some of these guys are great picks. So, Bo Nix um quarterback eight and 14 adjusted points per game over his
27:35first two seasons. Now he gets Jaylen Waddle added to the wide receiver room.
27:39That should open up the offense. Uh Denver finished sixth in dropbacks per game last season. No reason to think they fall outside the top 10 this year.
27:46So, should be plenty of volume for Bo Nix. Um foot injury seems totally fine.
27:50He's good to go day one of camp. So, he'll be fine in that area. Uh Brandon Thorn has them as the best offensive
27:56line in the league. That's going to elevate floor and ceiling for all of their players including um Bo Nix, of course. One thing I'll say about Nix is
28:05that he's pretty annoying to roster. So, he's got that really high-end ceiling.
28:08He drops like 35 points sometimes.
28:10And the volatility is fine, but he was eighth in adjusted points per game, seventh in points per game overall. Five games below 13 and a half fantasy
28:19points. Um that's annoying. Like it's annoying having a quarterback that um There's people at times last season had like him and like Caleb. And it's like you you
28:29kind of hit, right? You had two good quarterbacks to stream, but it was impossible to know when he was going to
28:33score 35 or when he was going to score 10. And that can be very frustrating.
28:37Like and the the the that way it hurts you. Like at quarterback, if you're going to score 10 fantasy points, I mean, obviously if your opponent is
28:45scoring 25 and you took a 15-point loss at quarterback, there's not as many spots as you'd think to really make up
28:51that production. If you kind of split wide receiver, tight end's not making a difference, you lose on defense, it's all of a sudden your running backs have
28:57to dominate.
28:58And so that can hurt you. And if he's just handing you a couple losses throughout the season, and then you just
29:02get unlucky a few more times, you can look back and be like, "How did I not make playoffs when I look at the end of
29:08season stat lines of these guys?" Well, it's because volatility can hurt you in a redraft league. And Bo Nix is very
29:13volatile. So, that's one thing I want to note, maybe Waddle kind of helps that out, maybe being in year three with a
29:19good system with a great offensive line, maybe all those things improve the volatility. Um but that is one aspect that's negative for Nix. But again, this
29:26is an amazing tier, and he's leading this tier. Like, he's a great quarterback at this point. We kind of know he's a great quarterback. Uh not an
29:33elite quarterback, but a really good quarterback in a great system, with improved pass catchers, great offensive line. Like, everything sets up to where like it'd be
29:40very surprising if he had a bad season.
29:42And enough mobility. Um Speaking of mobility though, uh Stafford. Over under what? One rushing yard this season? Cuz he had one last
29:50season, which is absolutely insane. One rushing yard. 0.1 fantasy points in rushing. Not per game. In the entirety of last season. And negative if you
30:01count uh fumbles. Uh but that doesn't really count cuz it would have been a sack. But the point is, unbelievable having one rushing yards
30:08and still still being so effective as a quarterback in terms of points per game, uh fourth.
30:15One rushing yard, fourth in adjusted points per game. Just putting the Konami code to shame. Uh might be 38 now, but
30:21listen, the Rams are the number one projected scoring team in the NFL by half a point per game. So, them and the the um
30:29uh Lions we'll talk about in a second.
30:32Probably the lead to to project um as a the highest touchdown scorers in the league this season. Um we know Stafford's going to throw the
30:41ball a ton when he gets inside the goal line. If Puka and Adams both stay healthy, he's going to have another
30:46great season. It's just hilarious seeing one rushing yard, zero rushing touchdowns. Probably saying that's probably going to happen again, but fourth in adjusted points per game last
30:53season, 4,700 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, only six interceptions, correctly the MVP last season. Uh I guess the one negative for him besides
31:03the potential downfall in rushing is like, "Well, if those touchdowns come on the ground." But again, I don't think that necessarily is going to happen. Uh
31:09the other aspect is the defense.
31:12They have a great defense, and they keep adding to it. Like they probably have the best defense in the NFL, definitely
31:16top three. If their defense is amazing and their offense is really good, they're never going to get into shootouts cuz they're just going to
31:22steamroll teams every single week. And if that occurs a lot, you know, maybe the first half can be great, but then if
31:27it's all rushing, slow, not really too much to do in the second half, you can have a lot of games where he starts off
31:33great, but he still ends up with like 250 and two, and it's like fine, but with zero rushing yards or negative
31:40rushing yards on kneel downs, the ceiling can go away. So, I guess the the defense can be a negative from that
31:46perspective, but there's projected for so many touchdowns that it's probably just fine. It's probably just he's a great pick this season. Uh Brock Purdy,
31:54over the last 3 years, he's been the quarterback 8, 10, and 5 in adjusted points per game. So, you can get him at
31:59a pretty strong value in drafts. His issue has been staying healthy. Um gets hurt a lot for being a, you know, mobile
32:06quarterback, but not a hypermobile quarterback. Uh at the end of the day though, I view his injuries in the same light as Joe Burrow. Like, you worry on
32:13the hypermobile quarterbacks that refuse to go down because they're taking unnecessary hits. But that's not Burrow, and it's not um Purdy. I think both of
32:20these guys have just been injured at an elevated rate. I mean, Burrow was tough cuz he was actually getting hit cuz of
32:25his offensive line. So, that was the reason why he had so many injuries. But like, these two quarterbacks are not guys who you expect to be injured all
32:31the time. So, I think it's a little bit more just getting unlucky with injuries for Joe Burrow and Purdy. and also do
32:38you care? Like for Burrow maybe in round six, but Purdy goes later. Who cares? If you're that concerned that he's going to miss a
32:46month of the season, go draft a lower tier quarterback to add on to him. For whatever time he's playing, he's probably going to outperform his ADP.
32:54Anytime he misses, you throw in that other quarterback or just don't draft him and just stream quarterback, especially if you're in a league where
32:59your league mates don't necessarily all draft two or three quarterbacks and there's plenty on free agency. He's a great guy to just take as your solo
33:05quarterback. If he gets hurt, put him on the bench for a little bit, put him on the IR spot IR spot.
33:10And just go out there and pick up whatever quarterback is there on free agency. Because the upside's there this season. They signed Mike Evans. I mean I
33:17don't think Mike Evans is going to be like a dominant wide receiver between the 20s, but he's certainly going to be
33:21a superstar in the red zone. And Purdy through his entire career has been a highly efficient quarterback. There is definitely a lot of upside that what if
33:30some of these rushing touchdowns that they've been having as a team just turn into where the three-yard line just throw it to Mike Evans, he's going to
33:36come down with it. I feel like they kind of looked at what happened to the Rams last season where like why don't we do
33:41the same thing? Why don't we just have Evans be our Adams? And of course they don't have Puka, um but the scheme there
33:47is so strong that they know they're highly efficient. They know they're going to get in the red zone a lot. Just
33:51get that dominant red zone weapon and all of a sudden can Purdy throw for 40 touchdowns this season? Maybe. And it's
33:56going to go along with a little bit of mobility as well. So, uh Purdy, another quarterback that is a very very high
34:02upside one in tier four. Uh But guess what? There's another one, Jared Goff. Uh if rushing was not a component of fantasy football, uh he'd
34:11be a tier one quarterback.
34:12Unfortunately, uh 10.1 rushing fantasy points in total over the last two years.
34:17So, not per game, uh not per season.
34:20Over the last two years, he has 10.1 rushing fantasy points not including fumbles. So, not going to get anything done on the ground, uh less than four
34:30rushing yards per game, maybe won't score touchdown at all, but he's going to do it through the air.
34:36And let me tell you, if there was ever a season to bet on Jared Goff, I think this is the one. Four straight years
34:42over 4,400 passing yards, at least 29 passing touchdowns, 37 and 34 passing touchdowns over the last 2 years. They lose David Montgomery, so the guy that
34:53they leaned on inside the 10-yard line on the ground, he's gone. Easiest schedule in the NFL and a bad defense.
35:01Every single week is going to be a shootout. If you look at their schedule, um I mean, it's mostly dome games and
35:09the entire second half of the season, it's like all dome games besides championship weekend at Chicago, but that's going to be a shootout anyways.
35:17My goodness. I mean, you look you combine the schedule with a consolidated offense, a bad defense, and a coordinator that's like,
35:25"Oh, we're only winning by 30? More."
35:28Like they just keep piling it on, and they're going to have to because the defense isn't that good.
35:33Upside for Goff, like truly, if they're not running the ball inside the red zone, could he have 45 passing touchdowns this year? Yes, he could have
35:415,000 yards, 45 passing touchdowns, put together a season like Stafford did last season, and you shouldn't be surprised because their skill players are
35:49absolutely amazing. Defense is bad in a dome, easy schedule, like it's just everything sets up to where Goff could have an amazing season this year.
35:58Kyler, uh one of the riskier quarterbacks, um but you compare him with Goff, right?
36:03You're in a range right now where if you want to go quarterback quarterback at like a turn pick or something like that,
36:07go Goff and Kyler, start the season with Goff. If Kyler hits the high end of his outcome, um either you're starting him
36:13and streaming him with Goff, or you're trading one of them, but like you can pair Kyler with a very very safe
36:19quarterback. Pair him with Stafford, pair him with Goff, pair him with I don't know, um I guess you could go into
36:26with next year of quarterback. I don't love it as much, but if you want to take two shots, pair him with like uh Shuck
36:31or a Willis. I mean, obviously you're not pairing with a safe quarterback at that point, but um, that's an option for
36:36you. Um, but the bull case is pretty obvious.
36:40It's an elite offensive coordinator.
36:41He's got rushing upside. Won't run it as much as previous years, but going to run the ball plenty. He throws to Justin
36:46Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Um, can promise you he's going to win the starting job. Don't worry about those concerns about, you know, it's still
36:53going to be a fight for the quarterback one. It's going to be Kyler Murray. Um, honestly, I think he might have the same
37:00if not a higher ceiling than Nix or Goff. Um, but like the floor is is real low. Like, what if he is just bad?
37:08Now, I don't think that matters because upside wins championships. And if you draft Kyler at his ADP and you drop him,
37:15it literally doesn't matter. Um, it's not going to impact your chance of of winning a championship at all. Uh, so if
37:22he falls in your draft off these reports and you're like, "Well, why don't I just take a shot? Who cares? The skill
37:27players in this range aren't that good."
37:29Go for it because he's got immense upside if he can hit.
37:34Patrick Mahomes, uh quarterback three in adjusted points per game last season.
37:37He's a full go to start camp. Uh, so maybe we shouldn't be worried at all about the knee. Um, they did say that
37:44they want to uh reduce the rush attempts though. He said he probably scrambled a little bit too much last season. Plus,
37:50they go after Ken Walker. So, the pass attempts are definitely coming down. Uh, the scrambles are definitely coming down. He was 13th and 11th in adjusted
37:58points per game in '23 and '24 before last year. So, the spike was the rushing and if that's going to go away, let's be
38:05honest. Um, he's probably going to be more in that quarterback 10 to 15 range.
38:09Uh, but it's still Patrick Mahomes. This late, you're getting Patrick Mahomes. He has upside anytime he steps onto a football field. Uh, then Baker, kind of
38:18the last player in this tier, not kind of the last player in this tier. You could almost put Baker into a new tier
38:23because I just I think he's obviously last in this tier, but then obviously shouldn't go in the tier behind. Very fun player. Uh the style of play that we
38:31like in fantasy. Just kind of like yolo balls deep down field. Um I think he's a better quarterback than we saw last year. Um I think he's due
38:38for a bounce back. Like he was hurt, the offensive line was hurt, injuries to the offense. Um you could say he lost Mike
38:43Evans, but he didn't have Mike Evans last season. Um I don't know. Quarterback 20 last year.
38:49I think he bumps up to an obvious streaming range, but he does not necessarily have like a similar ceiling to a lot of other quarterbacks in this
38:56range. Uh but still a good pick. And if he's going to fall in drafts, he's not a bad quarterback to go after. Uh but I would
39:03say my favorite tier four quarterbacks are Stafford, Purdy, Goff, Kyler. Just for the upside for Kyler.
39:11But if you really want hyper-focused targets for tier four in one quarterback league, I would say Stafford, Purdy, and Goff with Goff probably being my
39:20favorite. Tier five. Jordan Love, Malik Willis, Kyle Trask, C.J. Stroud, Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones. Much lower ceiling and a much lower floor for
39:29everyone in tier five. Jordan Love, uh the expectation right now is that the Packers going to lean a little bit more
39:34pass-heavy this season, but I think it's going to be a little bit of a lean and you probably won't notice all that much.
39:39Um Definitely going to happen though if if Josh Jacobs misses time. Um I don't know. I just never really draft Jordan
39:45Love. He's had plenty of time to break out in fantasy. He was someone I was excited about at one point. Uh
39:52but at some point if it's just never going to happen, um maybe it's not it's just not going to work out. Uh
39:59I think he's a fine quarterback. Just for fantasy, the upside just hasn't really been there. Um he's athletic, so you would assume that the rushing
40:05production is there, but he has a career 10 rushing yards per game, uh one total rushing touchdown over the last two
40:11years. Like he should be running the ball more than he is, and he just doesn't. Um it's sort of tough for me to
40:16tell a story that he's competing with the top like eight quarterbacks. Um, and so pretty much only going to draft him on underdog stacks. Not really
40:25someone I'd go after in my main redraft league or even if I was in like three redraft leagues, I wouldn't be touching
40:30Jared Goff. Honestly, Jared Goff. I would be touching Jared Goff. Jordan Love, wouldn't be drafting him even in superflex, honestly.
40:36Malik Willis, you can tell a better story. And if I was in three redraft leagues, I would consider taking him in
40:42one of them. I would definitely want to pair him with another quarterback you like and take two shots later on.
40:48The thesis behind the play is just rushing volume, right? Like he can run for 1,000 yards. That's basically what people are saying. I
40:56think people are a little bit overrating how much he's going to run while also underrating how bad these wide receivers are that he's playing with. He's made
41:06six career starts. So, first off, assuming we can accurately project 1,000 rushing yards for someone based off of six career starts, that's being a little
41:15bit optimistic. In those six starts, he threw for over 122 passing yards only two times with three games below 100
41:24passing yards. He also ran for under 45 rushing yards per game. That's less than 775 rushing yards across an entire season.
41:33He had three total passing touchdowns in those six starts. So, we've got a quarterback with some of the worst passing numbers we've ever seen from a
41:40starter throwing to Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Caleb Douglas, and eventually Chris Bell.
41:47I mean, A.J. Brown better have 2,500 receiving yards this season. So, I get it. I get that rushing elevates his floor.
41:53Um, two of six career starts over 122 passing yards, three total passing touchdowns in six starts. Like I see it, right? I see the rushing
42:05upside, but I also see an outcome here where the Dolphins are terrible on offense. He's not able to throw at all.
42:13Constant three and outs. He's getting good rushing production, but they're scoring so few points. It's such an obvious passing attack knowing ATN is
42:21the only good player on offense that if teams just sell out to stop the run game, the dump offs and the scrambles,
42:28and they leave everything else open, if they can't hit everything else, it's not going to be someone you're wanting. So, and what if he gets benched at some
42:35point? I think the contract probably has it to where he's not going to get benched, but if the production is not
42:39there, there is a chance that he is not the starting quarterback at some point.
42:43Tyler Shough behind him.
42:45Shough's a really interesting pick.
42:48The risk is pretty obvious though. He's made nine career starts, and it wasn't like he was a high-end prospect. So, this wasn't like a number one overall
42:55pick that makes nine starts and looks great.
42:57Like people didn't think he was going to be that good, and he made nine starts, and he was he was good in those starts.
43:01He also had zero three touchdown games, and his best games came against the Titans, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Panthers twice, and the Falcons twice.
43:11I don't know. And then he's pretty awful against the Rams and the Bucs twice. So, while it's exciting seeing him play
43:18well, and the Saints do have an easy schedule this season, it is worth taking a pause and being like, "Okay, he we've
43:24seen a very limited sample where he did really well against really, really, really bad teams, and then really bad against good teams."
43:32We don't know how good Shough is. Now, the bull case is the schedule's still easy. He plays in a dome. He's got good
43:38skill players, good coordinator, pace up offense. I get all that. Um he's not the lock that a lot of people think that he
43:45is. You're going to want to take two quarterbacks if you take him as well. CJ Stroud after him, you're basically betting on the pass catchers staying
43:52healthy, and him returning to how he looked as a rookie.
43:56Was incredible in his rookie season.
43:58Really fell off the last two years. He's not a bad quarterback. It's just that he was so efficient in his rookie season.
44:04It really masked the lack of rushing um when the efficiency naturally fell off cuz he was just so overly efficient as a
44:13rookie, the floor really bottomed out.
44:15And I don't know that that's really going to return because their defense is so good and then they invest in David
44:19Montgomery. I think they're just going to try and run the run the ball with with David Montgomery a lot, utilize the
44:24defense, hope they can just get up, kill the clock, play slow, and he's a quarterback that needs volume. He needs elevated passing volume and I just don't
44:32think it's going to be there this season. Uh Sam Darnold, I was wrong about Sam Darnold last year. He's not an
44:37elite quarterback, but he's clearly good. He's a great system quarterback and Kubiak installed a great system. I think that system will remain this year.
44:44Again, they've said uh they want to keep Kubiak's system, but bring in elements of San Fran.
44:50That's going to be a good offense, right? The issue is he was great last season in the NFL. He was still 27th in
44:56adjusted points per game in fantasy, same issue as Stroud. He doesn't give you anything on the ground and the Seahawks don't have a bad defense. They
45:03have a great defense. And so teams are not going to get into shootouts against them. If they ever get up, they can just play slow, run the
45:09ball, and the defense will stop teams from catching up. Uh that leads to very few spikes and just not production you
45:15really want in fantasy. Uh then Daniel Jones last in this tier, uh probably the most upside to move around in this tier
45:22come August. Um It's really just going to depend on camp reports. I want to confirm that he's healthy, but it seems like he's going to
45:30be good to go in camp, going to be good to go in week one, 12th in adjusted points per game last season. Uh the five
45:36rushing touchdowns on 45 rushing attempts was pretty lucky. Uh but he was amazing as a passer. Also, you want to question that he was like it
45:44was by far the best season he'd ever had in his career as a passer. Does that regress? Like they were the number one
45:48team in the NFL. If they're not winning by so many points and being able to pass on obvious or non-obvious passing downs,
45:56does it hit as much? Does the loss of Pittman hurt? Is Alec Pierce okay after the foot surgery? Like there are a ton
46:03of question marks. Again, the the literal Achilles injury for Daniel Jones. So, I think right now he deserves to be at the bottom of this tier, but if
46:10everything starts to ramp up in camp and things are looking good and things are are doing well on on Kyler's offense,
46:15I'll move him up, but down here right now. Tier six, yeah, you don't want to be in tier six or tier seven. So, like
46:21just just do not draft tier seven. But tier six, you don't want to be in this tier as well. It's Kyler Murray, Bryce
46:26Young, Mendoza, and Aaron Rodgers. We kind of breeze through both of these tiers because even in superflex, I don't want to be in these tiers. Kyler Murray
46:35was the worst quarterback in the NFL last season by pretty much every single metric. He gets a coaching upgrade. They drafted Kyler Murray. They bring over
46:42Rondale, like great, but they have a bottom three offensive line and he looked so bad last year that he needs to make huge strides
46:49forward and you can just watch him play while he's on free agency. If he actually looks good to start the season,
46:54maybe we can stream him, but you don't need to draft him. Bryce Young, I don't think it's ever going to happen. He's
46:59just not a good quarterback. He's had flashes of being okay, but he's never put it together for even half of a
47:05season. He did in fantasy when he got super lucky rushing a couple times, but this is just not a kid you want to
47:11invest in. Um, he has three career 300-yard games across 44 starts. They're going to play slow. They're going to run the ball a
47:17lot. Not worth it. Mendoza, do think he has upside and I do draft him a lot on Underdog because I think
47:24Cousins is going to start the season, but then very quickly we'll see Mendoza.
47:28People are freaking out on Underdog.
47:30I've seen him go up pick 200. I drafted him in round 18 like a day ago when I had a Bowers team and I was like, how is
47:36this happening? Because people are so overreacting to usable weeks. They're like, well, what if he only plays half a season? I don't get my usable weeks.
47:43Okay, the half of the season's going to be in the second half where you really care and he's such a better prospect
47:48than I think people realize. He's going to make starts. Uh, they have to say Cousins is the starter right now. They have to start with him
47:55because as soon as they go to Mendoza, you can't go back to Kirk Cousins, but once they go to Mendoza, he's going to
47:59be really good. If you're getting him the 190s on Underdog, that's an amazing pick. Uh but for redraft, it's like you
48:04don't it's not necessary. It's not necessary to go after him. It's not necessary to go after Aaron Rodgers.
48:09There's no ceiling on Aaron Rodgers.
48:1125th in adjusted points per game last season. He's now 43 years old. He's going to have like five rushing yards per game. He had zero 300-yard games
48:19last season. That'll probably happen again this year. Sure, they added Pittman, they added Jeremy Jeremy Bernard. That helps. Uh but you're
48:26praying for like 16 or 17 points from him when you start him.
48:30You don't need to do that. You can occasionally stream him if you want to.
48:33And then finally, tier seven, Geno Smith, Tua, and Ridder. Uh this is the list of guys I don't think they're even
48:39going to start all season. Geno has the best chance of starting all year, but the man scored 11 and 1/2 adjusted
48:45points per game last year, and now he's on the Jets. So even if he does start all year, I don't know how much you want
48:49him. Uh Jacoby Brissett, no way. No way he's starting come the fantasy playoffs.
48:54People are way overrating the Arizona Cardinals offense. Right now, they have a terrible coordinator. They've got a bunch of players, and they're probably
49:02going to score bottom three points in the NFL this season, and their schedule is brutal. Brissett will not be the starting quarterback when we get into
49:09weeks 13, 14, 15, 16 this season. They play the Seahawks twice, the Rams twice, the 49ers twice, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Chiefs, the Eagles, like
49:20brutal. Absolutely brutal schedule. Um things finally open up open up for them after their like week 14 bye, weeks 15 through 17. But they might be 1 and 13
49:30by that point. Like they are not going to win many games this season. They're very likely to be the number one overall
49:35pick. They will be transitioning away from Brissett at quarterback at some point. I don't see any point in drafting him on Underdog. In redraft, if you feel
49:42like streaming him to start the season, sure, but he's not going to be good. So I really wouldn't do it. It was all
49:48volume last season. They're going to transition to a much more run-heavy approach, lose a ton of games, and then bench him. That's just going to happen
49:54this year. And then Tua, um well, Tua and J'Mar, I don't even know if either of them are starting, and if
50:00they do start, they're not good, so you're not going to want to be playing them. So, uh those are my top 32
50:05quarterbacks this season. Uh that is the end of the rankings videos this year. I will be doing multiple updates every single day to the actual rankings on my
50:14website, thefantasyfootballadvice.com.
50:18There's a ton of news that happens every single day from now through week one, so I will take all of that into account and
50:24update the rankings accordingly. And you can see custom. So, if you have uh different points for quarterbacks, you want to see how this uh is changed in
50:326-point passing touchdown leagues, how things change when you change interceptions, like all these different things, you can adjust the scoring on
50:38the website. Again, thefantasyfootballadvice.com, there's a ton of other premium content over there as well. The site got a massive upgrade this offseason. You're
50:47really going to want to check it out if you've not done so already. All right, that'll do it for this one. Thank you
50:52all for watching. Camp news video tomorrow, you're definitely going to want to watch that one. But for now, leave a like if you're still here, and
50:58I'll catch you all in tomorrow's video.

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