NFL Week 6 Betting Preview

A.J. Brown is back to practice for the Eagles-Patriots game, suggesting he may be available.

Rodgers has a 79 quarterback rating in his career against Tampa Bay with a pair of three-interception games and seven touchdowns to nine interceptions. He's been absolutely horrendous against man coverage this year, going two of 12 against Dallas's man defense. Under pressure, he has a 30% pressure-to-sack ratio and cannot escape; he's nowhere close to the same quarterback when pressured.

Pierce is out, and there's no downfield passing for the Colts without him. His absence removes a key deep-threat option from the Colts' offense.

Bijan was able to run wild against the Falcons, who match up poorly with the Saints because of their run defense issues and injuries on defense. This demonstrates the Saints' vulnerability to strong running games.

Bijan Robinson is a key play against the Bears' defense which cannot stop the run; the Bears' defense is horrendous and was finally exposed last week by the Packers, and they have injuries all over including Montez Sweat's suspension and Ode Yingbo likely out.

Bo Nix is playing completely lost against the Seattle defense; only 7% of his passes are deep compared to 12.5% last year; completing just 39% of throws under pressure with a turnover-worthy play rate north of 10% under pressure, tied with Baker Mayfield as the only qualified quarterbacks at that threshold; has been horrendous early in games but better in late-game stretches, suggesting coaching adjustments or simplification may help.

Brock Purdy has been incredible; he is the betting favorite for MVP and the 49ers are the betting favorite overall, but he can make mistakes against the blitz and may have an off game against Washington's blitz-heavy defense.

Caleb Williams' status is uncertain heading into the Falcons game; there is uncertainty about whether he will play and how healthy he will be, which creates uncertainty favorable to the Falcons moneyline.

DJ Moore's status is uncertain for the Bills-Raiders game; there's a question of whether he will come back from injury.

Dak and the Cowboys offense struggled against the Bucs' man coverage scheme, but this is a buy-low spot against the Packers who have more defensive injuries and will play more zone; the Dallas offense has been shredding zone coverage.

Darren Waller (Bowers) is part of a potent passing attack for the Raiders; the rushing game leaves a lot to be desired, but the Raiders have a strong passing game with Bowers as a key weapon.

Deebo Samuel is out; the 49ers will be without him for the Commanders game, which is a notable absence from their offensive weapons.

Watson is dead last in pressure-to-sack ratio and will face a Ravens defense that is elite at defending short passes and familiar with the Munkin scheme. The Browns offense is broken and can't run the ball (dead last in rush success rate), forcing Watson to beat the Ravens defense deep—something this offense cannot do. Watson has only two interceptions but 10 turnover-worthy plays.

Watson may force things if the Browns running game isn't producing yards on first-down runs, potentially leading to turnovers and red-zone interceptions. The poor run game (56% of runs met at or behind the line) could force Watson into bad decisions.

Garrett Wilson has been dealing with injuries and the Jets have been really banged up at receiver. There's potential for Omar Cooper to come off IR, which could help the Jets' receiving corps alongside Wilson.

Geno Smith is completing just 39% of throws under pressure with a turnover-worthy play rate north of 10% under pressure, placing him near the bottom of the league; neither quarterback is playing well in this matchup against top-tier defenses.

JSN's banged up ankle is a concern; he did practice but there were maybe some concussion issues to monitor heading into Thursday Night Football.

Daniels is further along than a typical undrafted rookie quarterback due to extensive college starts; NFL infrastructure has become more college-friendly, and Daniels has shown great composure with the moment never being too big. He's been better than Mayfield in many aspects, with Tampa's offense getting the ball out quicker and relying more on screens and Bucky Irving, providing easy buttons for him.

Winston is only good once he gets way behind in games, but the Saints are usually the team that gets way behind. Against the Giants, Winston won't have the opportunity to play from behind, limiting his effectiveness. He's likely to make mistakes in zone coverages.

JSN might just make a couple explosive plays, which should be the difference in the Seahawks-Broncos game; he's the primary target for Geno Smith in an offense lacking balance due to Seattle's inability to run the ball; JSN did practice but there were maybe some concussion issues to monitor.

Jayden Daniels has been great and is running wild; his rushing prop is a play over at 34.5-35.5 yards as he only knows one way to play and will continue to run despite his left elbow injury concerns.

Jordan Love's deep ball performance last week against the Bears was fantastic but not atypical; throwing deep is not out of the ordinary for the Packers offense, though last week was a special performance.

Allen is incredible but faces a difficult situational spot: the Bills are coming off an overtime win in Los Angeles on a short week, staying out on the West Coast to play in Vegas. The Raiders are expected to play a lot of zone and have a spy on Allen. Despite Allen's talent, the Bills' defense is the worst in NFL history for any 4-1 team, making it difficult for them to win by a margin.

Herbert has been the worst quarterback in the league against the blitz; he has no receivers to throw to because all the receivers are hurt, and the Chargers started four rookies on the offensive line last week with all their offensive linemen injured.

Herbert has been the worst quarterback in the league against the blitz. The Chargers' lack of receivers to throw to compounds this weakness, making him vulnerable to aggressive defensive schemes.

Seattle really missed Kenneth Walker because they just cannot run the ball at all; the lack of rushing attack removes balance from the offense and forces reliance on Geno Smith and JSN in the passing game.

Kyle Juszczyk's status is uncertain; there is a chance he could return but Kyle Pru is not optimistic about his availability for the 49ers-Commanders game.

Lamar Jackson did not practice on the day of this podcast and his status for the Ravens-Browns game is uncertain. He is estimated at 40% to play; he could skip practice and still play Friday or Sunday. The line movement suggests the market is starting to think Lamar will play, with the line at 5.5 suggesting a hedged scenario.

If Lamar Jackson plays, the under at 43 is still reasonable, though Kyle Pru would prefer a better price. If Tyler Huntley plays instead, the total should be under 40 because Huntley doesn't throw it deep like Lamar and isn't as electric of a runner.

If Lamar plays, he might not be 100% healthy, which means his mobility might not be fully there. This reduced mobility takes away what he's probably best at, making him less effective even if he does play.

Marcus Mariota has a favorable matchup against the Bears' defense which cannot get pressure without their two starting defensive ends; there is a large disparity in Mariota's performance when pressured versus when he is not.

Andrews had a poor performance in the Ravens' comeback win over Dallas, posting a minus-13 rating. He dropped a touchdown, fumbled resulting in a fumble return for a touchdown, dropped a two-point conversion, and had another third-down drop, though the Ravens overcame his miscues.

Mason Taylor is back for the Eagles-Patriots game, providing depth at tight end for the Eagles.

Matthew Stafford was 40 of 54, moving the ball at will against the Bills' horrible defense; the Rams offense is moving the ball effectively and should not be left to rely on kicker from 48 yards out in close games.

Saquon Barkley is hurt; the Eagles' offensive line is in shambles with Smith also hurt, and the offense is not working schematically with 30% of their runs stuffed (dead last in the NFL).

Snoop Conner was great down the stretch in the Ravens' comeback win over Dallas.

Spencer Brown, the Bills' right tackle, has an injury status worth monitoring for the Bills-Raiders game.

Stefon Diggs' status is uncertain heading into the 49ers game; his availability is a key needle mover for the Washington offense against San Francisco's defense.

Huntley doesn't throw the ball deep like Lamar; everything is short slants with fewer explosive plays. This condensed passing game means fewer electric runs and deep throws to receivers like Flowers, resulting in a more ground-focused, short-passing Ravens offense that should produce lower scoring.