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Don't overreact! Brett & Trevor break down Sunday's Week 1 action | NFL Pro

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

52 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 14, 2026
Published
Mon, September 14, 2026
27
Player insights
24
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh AllenChristian WatsonAaron JonesBaker MayfieldBryce YoungC.J. StroudCaleb WilliamsCarson WentzChuba HubbardColston LovelandD.J. MooreD'Andre SwiftDalton KincaidDavid Montgomery
Player analysis

Player insights

27

Aaron Jones

PositiveProjection21:58

Aaron Jones had a strong Week 1 performance for the Vikings, with the source expressing surprise that he still had that level of production in him. The Vikings had a better day on the ground than expected, with Jones contributing to that success in the comeback win.

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Baker Mayfield

NegativeRole39:39

Mayfield had 12 passes behind the line of scrimmage in Week 1, tied for the second most in a single game during his Buccaneers tenure; this suggests new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson may be leaning into a screen-heavy, short-passing attack that could reduce downfield volume and efficiency.

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Bryce Young

PositiveProjection13:45

Bryce Young had one of the best games of his career in Week 1 against the Bears, despite the Panthers losing 59-37. Against zone coverage, Young was 17 for 20 for 289 yards, and under pressure he was 6 for 9 for 83 yards with a touchdown and 17.3% completion percentage above expectation. The source emphasizes that Young played at a Heisman Trophy winner level, particularly on a wheel route to Tet where he released the ball before the receiver even turned upfield. The source notes this was a great offensive day for Carolina and that Young rose to the occasion even though the rest of his defense didn't.

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C.J. Stroud

PositiveProjection23:40

C.J. Stroud had a great start to his season; the source notes that what he did today—operating efficiently with 3+ seconds time to pressure on all offensive line dropbacks—will work more often than it won't. The source emphasizes that Stroud is a pocket quarterback who wants to operate in structure, and when given proper time (which the improved Texans offensive line provided on 42 dropbacks with no lineman above 10% pressure percentage), he can score 30+ points. This performance demonstrates the upside of the Texans' offensive line improvements.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection6:47

Caleb Williams had a strong Week 1 performance with multiple standout moments in structure, though the source notes he also had some unstructured USC-style moments. Despite the high-profile passing game, the Bears' 59-point offensive output was driven primarily by the run game (291 rushing yards, 82 yards over expected), suggesting the offense can score at elite levels without relying solely on Caleb's efficiency. The source emphasizes that Caleb was great in this game but frames the bigger takeaway as the Bears' overall offensive dominance rather than Caleb as the sole driver.

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Carson Wentz

PositiveProjection21:48

Carson Wentz came off the bench to lead the Vikings' comeback from a 22-10 deficit against the Packers, getting into a rhythm and orchestrating a successful second-half performance. The source notes that Wentz's ability to get into rhythm will be key for the Vikings going forward, particularly as they prepare to face the Bears' defense next week. His performance suggests he can be effective when given the opportunity.

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Christian Watson

PositiveProjection3:55

Christian Watson went for over 100 yards in Week 1, part of a standout performance by the Packers' passing game in the first half. The source later notes that Watson capitalized on aggressive blitz looks from the Vikings defense, showing he could exploit max protection schemes where safeties have to cover more ground. Watson's ability to take advantage of these defensive looks suggests he has the speed and skill to punish aggressive defensive schemes.

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PositiveRole19:42

Watson showed he could capitalize on aggressive defensive schemes in the first half of the Bears game, demonstrating the ability to exploit coverage opportunities when defenses are playing aggressively.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveUsage14:06

Chuba Hubbard got more of the paydirt (touchdown) opportunities for the Panthers in Week 1, indicating he was the preferred back in the red zone. The source notes the Panthers' running game was fantastic as part of their 37-point offensive output.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeRole12:26

Colston Loveland, who was expected to be a key unlock for the Bears offense, did not record a catch in Week 1 despite the Bears scoring 59 points. The source notes that Loveland will likely be more involved later in the season, but the fact that the Bears can score at historic levels without him being a focal point demonstrates the depth and versatility of their offensive weapons. Wide receiver 5 got meaningful touches in this game, showing the offense doesn't need to rely on any single player.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveUsage20:20

Moore caught a sideline touchdown from Josh Allen on a play the source describes as nearly impossible to defend, highlighting Allen's ability to place unguardable throws to his receivers.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveUsage8:37

DeAndre Swift had a strong Week 1 performance as part of the Bears' dominant run game. He and Kyle Menunga became the first Bears running back duo to each record 100+ rushing yards in a game since the Payton-Suey combination, and they've now done it back-to-back seasons. Swift benefited from the Bears' strategic use of their elite right tackle (Darnell Wright) and Jonah Jackson, running to the right 64% of the time for 7.8 yards per carry on that side. The source notes that it didn't matter what the call was—wide zone, power, counter—it all worked, indicating Swift's production was part of a systematic offensive advantage.

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Dalton Kincaid

PositiveUsage20:49

Kincaid caught a high throw from Josh Allen late in the game, one of Allen's deep shots that beat the Texans secondary; part of Allen's dominant performance throwing deep balls.

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David Montgomery

PositiveRole24:24

David Montgomery was a lifesaver in short yardage for the Texans in Week 1, getting three touchdowns in the game. The source emphasizes that Montgomery was specifically brought in to address the Texans' goal-line and short-yardage deficiency from last year; he's an absolute hammer built for those high-leverage situations, unlike Woody Marks. The source notes that last year's Texans couldn't convert in short yardage and would end drives at the two-yard line or take losses repeatedly, but Montgomery's presence and finishing ability changed that dynamic in Week 1.

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Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeMatchup40:39

Jamar Chase was held without production in Week 1 against Tampa Bay's young cornerback group (Keontae Scott and Benjamin Morrison), giving up only 2 catches for 12 yards total; however, the Bengals' offense still performed adequately, suggesting they don't need Chase to go off to win games.

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Jalen Coker

PositiveProjection14:06

Jalen Coker had a great game in Week 1 for the Panthers offense, contributing to a strong 37-point output despite the loss to the Bears. The source highlights Coker as part of a Panthers offensive performance that was impressive even in defeat.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveRole44:00

The source notes the Cardinals made deliberate offseason improvements around Jeremiah Love in the backfield and on the offensive line (adding Samal), positioning him as part of a talented supporting cast for Jacoby Versace that can help the Cardinals' offense put up points consistently.

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Jordan Love

NegativeProjection23:24

Jordan Love struggled in the Packers' loss to the Vikings, particularly on short passes. When throwing passes under 10 air yards, Love was 8 for 17 (below 50% completion percentage) for 51 total yards, an interception, and -20.1% completion percentage over expected. The source attributes this to the Vikings' aggressive blitzing (78% blitz rate on pass downs) and the Packers' offensive line struggles, which forced Love to rely on hot routes to running backs and tight ends. The source notes that Love couldn't execute these short throws effectively, which is critical when facing heavy blitz pressure. The Packers' 10 unblocked pressures and 22 pressure dropbacks indicate a fundamental protection issue that Love couldn't overcome.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection2:27

Josh Allen's Week 1 performance against Houston demonstrated elite scoring potential; the source notes that Allen did what he did today against last year's Texans would have resulted in a blowout, and he's currently the primary evidence that teams can score 30+ points. The source frames this as a playoff-caliber game in September between two really good teams with big plays on both sides, suggesting Allen's performance is repeatable against quality defenses.

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PositiveProjection20:00

Allen threw for 155 yards on just four completions by taking seven shots at 20+ yards, completing four of them for 155 yards and two touchdowns; described as playing at an elite level where 'the only thing that can stop Josh Allen when he's at his best is Josh Allen' himself, demonstrating unguardable deep ball accuracy.

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PositiveProjection33:20

Josh Allen had an alien-level performance in Week 1, taking seven shots at 20+ yard passes and completing four of them for 155 yards and two touchdowns. The source describes Allen as an alien, indicating an elite, otherworldly performance. Two of his deep completions were against Reed Blankenship, suggesting he exploited the Texans' safety coverage.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeMatchup45:45

Justin Herbert had no chemistry with any receiver other than Ladd McConkie in Week 1, and his frustration late in the game led to a critical interception on first and ten in the fourth quarter when he pressed after the Chargers fell behind; this suggests the Chargers' receiving depth is a significant concern for Herbert's fantasy production.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection3:59

Justin Jefferson did not go for over 100 yards in Week 1, but the source describes him as superhuman in the second half, making superstar plays that exemplify his elite talent. The source frames this as a sign of Jefferson's superstar-level performance despite not hitting the 100-yard threshold.

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Kyler Murray

NegativeInjury21:40

Kyler Murray took a rough hit early in the Vikings-Packers game in a bad situation where his helmet was coming off and he was getting hit while going to the ground. The source notes it was good to see him moving afterwards, but the injury was concerning enough that his status going forward is uncertain. Carson Wentz came in to lead the Vikings comeback.

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Ted Hurst

PositiveUsage40:40

Ted Hurst didn't receive a target until the fourth quarter but caught all three of his targets and posted the highest QBR of any wide receiver in the game; the source suggests Tampa Bay should get Hurst more involved early in games, as he can serve as an X receiver anchor that allows the offense to move other skill players around him more effectively.

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Woody Marks

NegativeRole24:24

Woody Marks is not built for short-yardage and goal-line situations, which is why the Texans brought in David Montgomery. The source explicitly states 'I love Woody Marks. He's not built for that' and 'It's not his style,' indicating that Marks' role is limited in high-leverage red zone scenarios where Montgomery is the preferred back.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveProjection3:55

Zay Flowers went for over 100 yards in Week 1, part of a strong opening weekend for elite receivers across the league. The source highlights Flowers as one of the standout performances in an offensive-heavy Week 1.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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1:48Thanks for tuning into our Week 1 Reaction Show.
1:51We've got plenty to unpack from the opening weekend of the NFL season, from surprising results to standout performances and everything in between.
1:58Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
2:03Who said offense is dead? In the Super Bowl era, in an opening week of the season, this is the highest average
2:09points per game going into Monday Night Football. What's that happens with Kansas City and Denver?
2:14My God, Trevor, everybody is scoring, though I will leave room for the possibility, the scant possibility, that everybody's defense sucks.
2:20No, no, no, no, no, no. We're not here to talk about that.
2:24Because the Stars were out in Week 1, right?
2:27Caleb went nuts. Josh Allen went nuts. Lamar went crazy.
2:30I feel like Lamar had an incredible performance and is just getting overshadowed by some other unbelievable performances.
2:35Christian Watson went for over 100. Zay Flowers went for over 100.
2:39Justin Jefferson didn't go for over 100, but, I mean, he was superhuman in the second half.
2:44That's a superstar player making a superstar play. The offenses were potent.
2:48The teams were unbelievable. The play callers were on point.
2:51But also, I loved that the point of emphasis players, that everybody in the stadium, whether you had a headset on or
2:58not, a helmet on or not, whether you were a fan or not, you knew that this player was going to get
3:04the ball, they still got the ball. And I think that that's a sign of, really, that the offenses were cooking today.
3:11Everybody was scoring, and yet I still found a way to lose every single fantasy matchup.
3:16I'm in nine leagues. I lost in all of them, Trevor.
3:19Brother, I can't relate. I had a good one.
3:22Business is booming. Welcome to NFL kickoff weekend. Hot and muggy in Charlotte, North Carolina.
3:26We should talk about Chicago and Carolina off the top.
3:29We should indeed. 59 points is ridiculous. You score 59.
3:32When's the last time they scored 59? December 1980.
3:351980. And the time before that, it was like 1960, somewhere around there.
3:39Yeah. So it's ridiculous. We're going once every 20 years, if not 40 years for that happening.
3:44But Ben Johnson said he wanted to have the highest scoring offense ever.
3:48He did. You have to average, what, 38 points a game to do that.
3:52They're already kind of ahead of schedule. So... What do you mean kind of?
3:56They scored 59. What do you mean kind of?
3:59They almost doubled it up. But it's the way they did it that I found fascinating.
4:04291 yards on the ground. That's the thing. Yes.
4:07Everybody wants to talk about Caleb Williams. And like, Caleb was great in this game.
4:11Caleb had the Caleb Williams moments. I mean, there were some moments from him in structure that looked very good.
4:17And there were also some of those USC Caleb Williams moments that were also there to sort of give you the wow factor as well.
4:25But it really is what the Bears were on the ground.
4:28That, again, when people hear Ben Johnson say, I want to break the scoring record.
4:33Everybody says, well, can Caleb do that? Do you think he's efficient enough?
4:37All this kind of stuff. The real question is, do you have the run game to do that?
4:42Because the teams that put up that many points every single week, they do not just have a high ceiling.
4:48They have a high floor. And you have a high floor when you can run the ball really well.
4:54So 291 rushing yards, 82 rushing yards over expected for this team as well.
4:58Which, by the way, that means they were expected to run for 200 plus.
5:02When's the last time that happened? Look, we talk about the good offense.
5:06There's another side of the coin with Carolina that we'll talk about a little bit later.
5:11But yes, it is this emphasis on the run game and how efficient and explosive this run game was.
5:17Whether it was DeAndre Swift or Kyle Menunga, it didn't matter.
5:20Both of those guys really went off in this game.
5:23And that's how you achieve rare air of being an offense is you're able to run the ball really well.
5:29And they kind of weaponized one of their superpowers, which is, hey, we have one of the best right tackles on planet Earth.
5:36Working together with Jonah Jackson. They ran to the right 64% of the time because they could.
5:41They averaged 7.8 yards per carry to that side because they could.
5:45Last year, DeAndre Swift and Kyle Menunga became the first running back duo for the Chicago Bears to have 100 yards rushing
5:51in a game each since the Peyton-Suey combination. There hadn't been a duo in the NFL to do it in six years since Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
6:00These two guys have done it back-to-back seasons now.
6:03It didn't matter what the call was. Like, we saw a bunch of wide zone today.
6:07We saw power. We saw counter. We saw everything.
6:10It all worked to that side. And, you know, while we did praise a lot of the offseason acquisitions the Panthers have
6:17made in the front seven, it kind of didn't seem to matter.
6:20We were right back where we were last year.
6:23There are two sides to it. But for me, the bigger takeaway of this game is how good the Bears were.
6:29It was a rough game for the Carolina Panthers.
6:32But you and I talked about this when we were doing the preview show last week.
6:37It was going to be a great barometer game for the Panthers because of all their defensive investments.
6:42And if they were really able to hold the line of scrimmage against one of the better offensive lines in the league
6:49last year and one of the better run games and just one of the better offenses overall, then you would think that
6:56this Carolina team's ahead of schedule with even the offensive addition that they had.
7:00It was not that today. But I think that's much more of a, oh gosh, this Bears team is better than it
7:07was on the offensive side of the ball last year.
7:10Dude, you talked about Darnell Wright in the run game.
7:13His time to pressure in this game, 4.58 seconds as an average.
7:16Which basically means you're not getting pressure. Which basically means you're not giving up a pressure.
7:21Now, sometimes we know Caleb Williams likes to put on the Superman cape and hold onto it for a really long time.
7:28But even with Caleb Williams, this guy's not giving up pressures.
7:31So this was a phenomenal game from Darnell Wright.
7:34It was a great game overall from the Bears offensive line.
7:37But man, those are the two things to point out.
7:40As good as Caleb was, as great as the playmakers are in the passing game, they did all this.
7:46Colson Lovell didn't have a catch, right? Yeah. Didn't have a single catch in this game.
7:51They scored 59 points. And we were thinking that Colson was going to be their true unlock.
7:56And I think he will be later in the year.
7:59But the fact they can do that without him really needing to be.
8:03Scary. I mean, Rome plucked one off somebody's helmet.
8:05Right. You had wide receiver 5 getting meaningful touches in this game.
8:09Yeah. It's just unreal. And I do want to give the Panthers credit, by the way, because I know a lot of Panthers fans are distraught.
8:17You put up 37 points. They put up 37.
8:20And Bryce was good. You talked about the Bears, I think, playing man coverage in this game.
8:25But if you go to the zone coverage stats for Bryce, Bryce was 17 for 20 for 289 yards versus zone in this game.
8:32It's one of the best games he's ever played.
8:35And it's not a win. And dude, when you look at how he was under pressure as well, 6 for 9, 83
8:41yards, a touchdown, 17.3% completion percentage above expectation. Bryce was great in this game.
8:46Jalen Coker was great in this game. The running game was fantastic for the 1-2 combination.
8:50Chuba Hubbard got more of the paydirt opportunities for this team.
8:54But this was a great offensive day for Carolina.
8:56And it's hard to feel as bad about this as I know probably Panthers fans and Dave Canales and the whole staff do after you score 37.
9:05It's one of those... It's a different feeling if it's 59-37 versus if it's 59-10.
9:09Yes. At least something was working. Right. Right. And I think you can reasonably assume you're not going to give up 59 every single week.
9:17Yeah. You would hope. It's just can we carry the 37 through and we give up 25?
9:22I was very impressed by the offense. Yes. Again, we previewed this game last week.
9:26I had my worries about them on the offense with how explosive they could be.
9:31Now on the other side of things, I'm still worried about the defensive line.
9:35Yes. I just gave more credit to the Bears offensive line.
9:38But Derek Brown, 7.1% pressure rate in this game.
9:41Jalen Phillips, just a 10.7% pressure rate. That's not really what you want.
9:45Both of those guys had a time to pressure of over three seconds.
9:49So neither of your studs are getting consistent pressure before three seconds into play.
9:53Of those stats, okay. Not great signs. This is the one that doesn't feel great.
9:58They blitzed on more than half of their snaps.
10:00They blitzed on 51.3% of their snaps and still only got total pressure 33% of the time.
10:06That would have been bottom half of the league last year.
10:09Total 33% as a team. So you're blitzing more than half the time and you're still not even getting top half of
10:16what would have been the average team pressure last year.
10:19It just goes to show it's still a work in progress in Carolina.
10:22You like what you saw from the offense. But again, to me, the big takeaway is who the Bears were in this
10:29game rather than the negative of what we saw from the Panthers with the loss.
10:34Yeah, I think it's a shot across the bow for the Panthers defense.
10:38They have to get it corrected. If they don't, they won't make the playoffs.
10:42For sure. But at least you can hang your hat on, well, we won't be blown out because our offense can put up points.
10:49We have a quarterback that can really rise to the occasion even though the rest of his defense didn't.
10:55Yeah. I think there are positives to take away.
10:57I wouldn't entirely panic if I was a Panthers fan.
11:01I'd panic about the defense, but it's better than panicking about everything.
11:04100%. Oh, that last thing. I think it was a little out and up.
11:08Maybe a wheel route. I can't remember. The throw that Bryce had at Tet that it was almost a touchdown.
11:14That was it. He lets go of that ball like before Tet even turns up the field.
11:20And it's still, he just turns his head and it's in his hands.
11:23That's Bryce Young at his finest. Yeah. That's Bryce Young, Heisman Trophy winner at Alabama type of player.
11:29And we saw a good offense for them. They just ran into what might be the best offense ever.
11:35We'll see as the season goes on. Well, the season goes on against the Vikings.
11:39Yeah, because the Bears play the Vikings next week.
11:42That's the second game we got to talk about because, I mean, you and I both thought the Vikings were going to win that game.
11:49We did not think we were going to win.
11:52Never in doubt. No, never in doubt. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
11:58Never in doubt. Never in doubt. There's a little bit of doubt when Carson Wentz did.
12:03I will not. I will not let the people see how the sausage was made this afternoon when they were down 22 to 10.
12:10I will not let them see that. Flashback to like the middle of today while we're watching the game.
12:16We're like, oh my God, we're going to get cooked in the comments.
12:20We're saying the Vikings are going to win. What a crazy game though.
12:24I mean, this was the most Brian Flores game I've seen since that one primetime game when he was in Miami.
12:30Remember when he blitzed Javon Holland off the edge like 30 times in one game?
12:35This, I think, was probably the most aggressive game he's had since that game.
12:3978% blitz rate on pass downs. Are you out of your mind?
12:43It works though. I'll give him that. He's just me playing Madden.
12:46Engage it until you can figure it out. Go ahead, beat it.
12:50Sorry. Right. Dude, but that goes into, obviously a great comeback for Minnesota.
12:54Rough to see Kyler take that hit early. Obviously, it was really, really, really tough hit in a bad situation where his
13:00helmet's kind of coming off and he's getting hit while he's going to the ground.
13:05It was just good to see him moving afterwards.
13:08But Carson Wentz comes in, obviously leads the comeback for them.
13:11The Viking side of things, it was, I didn't think that Aaron Jones still had that in him and they had a
13:18great day on the ground, a better day than I thought.
13:21But all of this to say, to me, Brett, the real takeaway is actually the Packers struggles.
13:26And specifically to your point of Flores blitzing as much as he did, he was testing this Packers offensive line.
13:32They failed. Because when you look at this offensive line, four out of their five offensive linemen had a time to pressure below two and a half seconds.
13:40You can't function that way. There's no offense that works, especially because you pair that with, when people talk about the Jekyll
13:47and Hyde of Jordan Love, a lot of people look at sort of, you know, first half versus second half splits because
13:54obviously in this game, you know, they're great in the first half, they're great in the second half.
13:59I actually don't think it was necessarily just a tale of two halves with him.
14:04I think the big issue was when he wasn't throwing it deep, he was not in rhythm and he was not comfortable at all.
14:11When you look at Jordan Love passes under 10 air yards, he was eight for 17 in this game.
14:17So below a 50% completion percentage, 51 total yards at interception and a negative 20.1% completion percentage over expected.
14:22So when you're getting blitzed, the way that Flores is blitzing you and your offensive line is relinquishing pressure that quickly, what do you have to do?
14:31You got to hit the hot route. Yeah. You got to hit, you got, you got to hit the hot read on wherever your safety blanket is.
14:39And he just, he couldn't, he just could not do it.
14:42They had 10 unblocked pressures in this game. He had 22 pressure dropbacks, which is already insane.
14:47Yeah. And I'm not entirely sure who is calling protections in Green Bay.
14:51I don't know if Jordan's doing it. I don't know if the center's doing it.
14:56Maybe it's a little mix of both. But when you have that many free bodies at the quarterback over and over and
15:02over again, first of all, it's a fundamental issue with your protection plan.
15:06Like clearly Flores knew exactly what they were going to do when he presented certain fronts, certain looks, he knew exactly how
15:13they were going to protect it and he attacked it.
15:16But eventually you have to have some sort of answer offensively, whether it's okay, we need to add extra bodies in protection,
15:23or we need to be able to like be on our P's and Q's when throwing hot.
15:28We cannot just let free runners at the quarterback over and over and over again and have no answer.
15:33Or it looks like that. They scored 22 points in the fourth quarter.
15:37Packers scored 22, period. Yeah. That only happens because, first of all, Packers fans, I understand there was a rough call on a crucial third down.
15:45Right. Yes, we didn't like the call either. Right.
15:48That call isn't why you lost the game. There was a whole bunch of points that were scored after that.
15:54There was turnovers that happened after that. Yeah. It didn't help.
15:57It didn't help. But come on. There were multiple moments throughout the game where you could have stopped the run, stopped shooting yourself in the foot.
16:05Yes, it was a bad call. I agree with you guys.
16:08You're right to be upset about that. But I think you're channeling your anger towards that one specific inflection point, as much as we believe in momentum here.
16:17You're channeling your anger towards that. Oh, brethren. It's good.
16:20I know. There's dozens of us out there. There are dozens of us.
16:24But you have to also look at every other opportunity, all the other high leverage plays that the Packers failed on in
16:30the second half, defensively and offensively specifically. Yeah. They needed a couple drives to put them away.
16:36They couldn't do it because they couldn't answer all this pressure.
16:39Yeah. So, yeah, you can be upset at the penalty.
16:42Be upset about a whole lot more than that.
16:45We can't put ourselves behind the sticks because you're playing right into their hands.
16:49That's when they want to give you all those pressure looks.
16:52Vikings offensive line on the other side of things, I think, did play very, very well.
16:57They didn't have a single offensive lineman with a pressure percentage above 7%.
17:01I mean, this group was really, really playing well.
17:04And it's a Vikings offensive line that's really gone through their fair share of injuries over the last couple of years.
17:10You and I were just talking about Christian Derrissaw and how many injuries he's gone through for his career.
17:16But when this group, this five is fully healthy, you feel pretty good about it.
17:20And again, we go to a little bit of a preview of Bears-Vikings that's coming up next week.
17:26Yeah. And it's going to be a very interesting matchup because these are two very, very good offensive lines.
17:31You know, what's the Bears offensive line going to look like against Flores?
17:35And what's he going to throw at him? You know, how desperate are the Bears defensive line rotations and everything?
17:41Like, are they going to try to match that blitz percent?
17:45Well, they're not going to match the blitz percentage because nobody matches the blitz percentage.
17:49They can try. You never go full. You never go full Flores.
17:53But, you know, it's going to come down to like these could be very potent offenses here, depending on if Carson Wentz
18:00is able to get into a rhythm the way that he was in this game.
18:04We'll obviously see what Kyler Murray's status is. But very much look forward to that game that we've got coming up next week.
18:11I'm really fascinated by whatever answers Ben Johnson can come up with.
18:15Obviously, we're going to talk about this game in the preview show later this week.
18:19Historically, whether Ben was with Detroit or with Chicago, it's been very under center play action heavy because he wants to be
18:26able to age all the linebackers up because the linebackers, as we talked about last week, they're under a lot of pressure in this scheme.
18:33They have a lot of ground they have to cover because you're throwing bodies, extra bodies at the quarterbacks, which means there's less bodies in coverage.
18:41So the linebackers are really, really stressed here. So Ben Johnson has kind of stressed them even more with play action.
18:47You have to honor the run fake. You already have a bunch of space over the middle you have to cover.
18:54And then if you're doing these quick hitting play action, you know, like with Amon Ra, like 12 yards over the middle.
19:00Right. He would just eat with those in Detroit.
19:03He did it also in Chicago. I am fascinated to see if Flores has a plan for that, which might involve just not blitzing as much.
19:11Well, I wonder if he's maybe going to do that because he saw what Christian Watson did to him today.
19:17Right. I mean, if you get it in a chance where, hey, we're starting to throw bodies at the line of scrimmage,
19:24but they're picking it up really well, you know, whether it's the running backs who are nice pass protectors themselves, whether it's
19:30Monungay or DeAndre Swift or obviously Cole Komet, who can sit in and pass protection as well.
19:35Like if you start to get into some max protection looks and you start putting some serious speed against those older safeties
19:42that have to cover a lot of ground, Christian Watson showed you that, you know, he could capitalize on that in the first half of this game.
19:50And so just very curious if Flores is going to still stay aggressive for as good as that Bears offense was this week.
19:57Speaking of torching safeties, let's talk about Reed Blankenship.
20:00As a Texans fan, it's okay, Reed. Not my favorite segment.
20:03He's an alien right now. Josh Allen is an alien.
20:06So he had 155 yards just on four throws in this game because he took seven shots.
20:11I'm talking about Josh Allen, obviously took seven shots at 20 plus yards, completed four of them at a buck 55 and two touchdowns on, on those four.
20:20Two of them were against Reed Blankenship. One of which I kind of understand.
20:24For sure. The sideline one to DJ Moore. There is no universe where as a safety, you're thinking somebody's going to make that.
20:31Yeah. Nobody's a... Him and Mahomes, right? Yeah. And Herbert.
20:34Herbert might do it. Yeah. But like, again, Reed just spent a bunch of time in the NFC.
20:39He's not seeing those guys. That's true. Yeah. Yeah.
20:42He's not used to that. I got baptized a little bit today.
20:46You go going up with Josh Allen like that.
20:49There was the, the, the high seven to Kincaid late where Reed got, got, you know, Kamari, Kamari, unfortunately also got, got late in the game.
20:56It's just Josh was throwing these bombs down the field.
20:59Yes. It's just going to happen. For sure. I don't really think the Texans defense played that bad of a game, even
21:06with as many points as they gave up. It's just sometimes you have an absolute all time quarterback that throws unguardable balls deep down the field.
21:14This is a, this is a beauty of a game.
21:17This was just a fantastic game to watch because what was the pivotal point in this game?
21:22Kamari drops the interception that would have sealed the game.
21:25Yeah. And it was either the next play or the play after.
21:29I think it was literally the next play. Josh Allen throws an absolute seed and there's a touchdown.
21:34But there it is. Against Kamari, by the way.
21:37And, and, and that's, and that's sort of the two sides of the coin of how this game could have gone.
21:43And it was literally just what one drop bobbled interception.
21:46And we would be sitting here talking about the Texas still have Josh Allen's number or like, you know, they're, they're on
21:53their way to, you know, a deep playoff run and they maybe still are.
21:57But that, that was just, I think a microcosm of a game of two of the best teams in the NFL that went up against each other.
22:05The, the Texans, the Texans scoring, you said this earlier, and I think it was beautifully said.
22:10The Texans scoring 31 points and losing is a Josh Allen stat.
22:14Yes. That is a Josh Allen stat because I'm pretty sure every fan base other than maybe the Broncos, maybe Broncos fans
22:21would take the Texans defense over any defense that they had.
22:24And Josh still, he can still do that against Denver.
22:27He scored 36. There's no defense on this planet that can stop Josh Allen when he's at his best.
22:33When he is at, when Josh Allen is at his best, the only thing that can stop it is Josh Allen.
22:39That's it. That's it. Or his offensive line holding up, which they did hold up pretty well.
22:44They were good today. Both offensive lines were. That's the thing is like, if I'm a Texans fan, I'm not that upset.
22:51If I'm a Bills fan, I'm not that upset about the defense.
22:54This was just two really good teams going at it.
22:57Scored a bunch of points. There were big plays on both sides.
23:01It was a playoff game in September. It was a good game.
23:05It was, yes, 100%. I'm not panicking at all.
23:07So, Houston's offensive line, we talked about it a lot this offseason, and we talked about it a lot last season because they weren't very good.
23:15A lot of new additions, a lot of new guys in there, some young guys, some old guys.
23:21They're trying to get the best five out there kind of a thing.
23:25No Houston offensive lineman had a pressure percentage above 10% on 42 dropbacks today.
23:29And it just got them at the worst time.
23:32That's a good stat. I think that you feel really great about that, especially because all of them...
23:37Now think about it. C.J. Stroud, he's not Caleb Williams.
23:40He's not Josh Allen. He's not going to hold on to the ball for forever.
23:45He's more of a pocket quarterback. He wants to operate more in structure.
23:48All of the offensive linemen had a time to pressure average above three seconds.
23:53That's pretty good. If you give C.J. Stroud that kind of time, guess what?
23:57You score 30. Yeah. And so this is another situation very similar to the way that we talked about with Carolina Panthers, where stings, sucks, no moral victories.
24:05I get it. You can feel okay about this one.
24:08I think that the Texans and Texans fans can go, hey, if we see him again, we'll get him.
24:14And I think that you're not believing in a fantasy to say that if you see them again in the playoffs.
24:20And there were some issues that this team had last year that they showed they at least improved on.
24:26Like, David Montgomery was a lifesaver in short yardage.
24:29Yes. Right? Yeah. Last year, they were awful in goal line situations.
24:33The goal to go situations, like down in the low red zone.
24:36Like, they could not punch the ball in at all.
24:39You bring in David Montgomery, who's an absolute hammer.
24:42And while the blocking was better, he can still finish those kinds of runs way better than running backs that they had previously.
24:49And I love Woody Marks. He's not built for that.
24:52Montgomery is why they traded for him. No, it's not his style.
24:55Right? Yeah. He got three touchdowns in this game.
24:58Last year's Texans, if Josh Allen did what he did today against last year's Texans, they would have gotten blown out.
25:05Because they couldn't win in those short yardage, high leverage situations when they absolutely needed to.
25:09And they would burn drives. They would end drives at the two-yard line.
25:13Sometimes they would get to the two-yard line and end up at the 10.
25:18Because they would take losses over and over and over again.
25:21And the fact that they showed, hey, we can actually operate in short yardage.
25:25We can convert in high leverage situations. CJ played well.
25:28I think so, too. He did the sack fumble late.
25:31This is a great start to his season. Yes.
25:34Great start to his season. You want to get $70 million a year?
25:38Do that. Sure. What CJ Stroud did today will work more often than it won't.
25:42Yeah. How many teams are scoring 30-something against? Well, yeah, obviously.
25:46Yeah. Very short. Pretty much just Josh Allen at this point is the evidence that we have.
25:51I do want to give a shout-out to the Bills defense.
25:54And specifically the Bills defensive line. Because on the preview show and a couple of other shows that I was on, when
26:01we previewed this game, I said, I'm a little worried.
26:04I'm a little worried about what it looks like right out of the gate with them switching from that even front, zone-heavy
26:10Sean McDermott defense, which a lot of these players were acquired to run.
26:14Now there's only so much change that you can do in one offseason.
26:18Now you're switching to more of an odd front, very aggressive, multiple front, man coverage type of a defense with Jim Leonard as their defense coordinator.
26:26I thought they were excellent. And specifically, there was one player that I really want to give a shout-out to because I
26:33was worried about this player because without him playing well, I'm not sure how well this works.
26:38And because Deion Walker, the Bills defensive lineman, played really well, I think a lot of stuff worked around him because he was a focal point.
26:46To line up as a nose tackle, to line up as a 4-I, to line up as a 3 technique, whatever it
26:52was, that length and that overall size that he has, that strength profile, I thought, especially in short yardage situations, it was excellent.
26:59Two solo stops from Deion Walker today. Negative 2.2 yards per rush allowed of a differential for when he was on the field versus when he wasn't.
27:07So they were giving up more than two yards a carry on the ground when he was not on the field.
27:14I think that is a serious NGS stat that points to the fact that Deion Walker was one of the best players
27:20that we saw in this really good game. So shout-out to the Bills defensive line.
27:25You aced this first test and you proved me as a little bit of a doubter wrong here.
27:30I'm very excited to continue to watch this group throughout the season.
27:34The hope is that Walker can be their DeForest Buckner, Calais.
27:37That's the dream. Taller guy, but even though he'll have leverage issues because he's a taller guy, he's longer and stronger than
27:44a lot of guys that are across from him.
27:47So if he can get hands-on quicker, his leverage issues are not going to be that big of a deal.
27:53Plus, his lateral agility for a guy his size, he's slanting.
27:56He can get in the backfield in a hurry.
27:59This was one of the times where he looked like, you remember young Kentucky Deion Walker?
28:04Yes, yes, before the back injury. Yes. Before the back injury, he looked so unbelievable.
28:08Yes. He was a true freshman. He'd be like, oh my God, is he going to be a top 10 pick?
28:14Right. That looked like that. Yeah, he did. He did.
28:17Let's talk about New Orleans and Detroit next because obviously, Barnburner goes into overtime.
28:22I mean, both teams score a touchdown in overtime and Kellen Moore is like, absolutely, we're going for the win.
28:28We're in Detroit. Why not? You're on the road.
28:30We're playing with house money, if you will. We got to this point.
28:34We thought we were, you know, they were down on the scoreboard in the second half.
28:39And what an incredible game that this was. To me, it was a hats off game to Tyler Shuck because I went
28:46into this offseason thinking, yes, I'm excited about Tyler Shuck.
28:49But I wasn't quite there yet with other people who just were saying, hey, oh yeah, he's totally good now.
28:55Like, he is good to go. Like, we're totally believing in him.
28:58New Orleans has their guy. I was like, I think we got to give it a little bit more time.
29:05Sophomore slump, very real for these pro quarterbacks, especially when defenses have an entire offseason to take a look at your film,
29:11at your tendencies, all that kinds of stuff. First half for Tyler Shuck, not great.
29:16He was 10 for 22, 85 passing yards, just a 3.9 yards per attempt average.
29:20One interception and had a negative 20.8 completion percentage over expected.
29:24Those are the NGS stats there. But if you get to the fourth quarter in overtime, when it really mattered, really, if
29:30you go to that, I don't remember what it was.
29:33It was like a fourth and eight, fourth and nine that he completed.
29:37And you don't complete that game. The game's over.
29:40And he rockets it in there. They convert that fourth down.
29:43Basically, from that moment on, 17 for 23, 231 yards, 10 yards per attempt instead, two touchdowns, and 17.5% above with the completion percentage above expected.
29:51So Tyler Shuck, when it mattered most, when the lights were brightest, when his back was against the wall, he was nails.
29:58And he was nails against, you pointed this out, man coverage.
30:01When he saw man coverage and he was able to notice that little separation with his receivers, he gave him a chance.
30:08And a lot of times it was dimes, it was dots, it was whatever you want to call it.
30:13He put up the points. He got them there.
30:16They almost got this win. But yeah, the man coverage aspect of it, and you know, the Lions ran a lot of man last year.
30:24They're just a man heavy team. Not necessarily good enough personnel to do it for the last couple of years, but they certainly wanted to.
30:31And really, if you're seeing the tale of two halves, to me, it's about the amount of man coverage he was facing
30:38because the Lions are not good at man coverage.
30:41And they kept doing it in the second half.
30:43I found this very curious. So I do have a stat here.
30:4712.5% man rate from Detroit in the first half, 35% man rate from Detroit in the second half.
30:52Man, that's a lot. Yeah. Huge jump. So I was like, why?
30:56It was working. Why would you suddenly play a bunch of man coverage?
31:00What I found is that it was actually field position dependent.
31:03So when the Saints started getting down into the red zone in the second half, the Lions started switching to their red
31:10zone defense, which is very man heavy. 87% man coverage rate in the red zone.
31:14They had three touchdowns. Against man coverage in the red zone.
31:18So, I mean, that's just the philosophy of the back of the end zone is an extra defender.
31:23Basically. They're just saying be aggressive and they... But Shuck's best ball is a fade.
31:28I'm with you. I obviously didn't work. The first one was a great fade.
31:32I mean, it left it a little bit long, but receiver made a good play.
31:36Like he hit a corner of the back pylon.
31:39And, you know, there's a huge slot fade late in the game against, man, I think it was DeVele off the top of my head.
31:47I think so. Yeah. Yeah. And when he started getting these man coverage looks, as they started getting deeper into the Lions
31:53territory, where for whatever reason, they're very zone averse there.
31:56They want to play man, especially zero. They really want to play zero in the red zone.
32:01Super aggressive defense. It kind of clarified the look for him.
32:05The two picks that he threw in the first half, it was against zone.
32:09I have no idea what he was looking at.
32:12I looked at the all 22 five minutes after the play was over.
32:16I was like, I don't have an explanation for those picks.
32:19He just didn't see the field well. And then when you clarify the look for him with man coverage in the second
32:26half, where he's like, I have a one-on-one here.
32:28I'm going to throw this one-on-one. Because if there's one thing that he's really good at, it's putting the ball where he wants it to be.
32:36Yes. Especially outside the numbers. Yeah. So if you don't confuse him pre and post snap and you let him just make
32:43a throw, he's going to make the throw. So to me, it's kind of on Detroit, honestly, for kind of letting off the gas a little bit.
32:51I would have just continued doing what worked, which was playing zone coverage, doing a lot of post-nap rotation, and then just
32:58trying to slow down his clock enough for Aiden to get there.
33:01It was working. I think it's a lesson for other teams to take away when preparing for the Saints.
33:07It's like, oh, if we take away that clarity of man coverage, let's make him beat us.
33:12Yeah. And I mean, the whole goal of what you want to do with young quarterbacks is you want to make them think.
33:19Because, you know, they'll hitch a couple extra times.
33:22They'll hesitate. They won't be looking exactly where they need to.
33:25I think it was one of the interceptions that Shuck had early.
33:29It was a read route with him, and I cannot remember.
33:32It was a receiver or a tight end. But they just totally read it wrong.
33:37The tight end was going to the outside. Shuck thought he was going to sit right where he was when he was cutting.
33:43And the safety was already coming down because the safety was already there.
33:47And Shuck just throws it, and it's an interception.
33:50And those are the things where he's struggling because you're making him think.
33:54Yeah. When you play man coverage, a lot of times you're not forcing quarterbacks to think, especially when you're playing zero.
34:00He's just looking across the board and saying, okay, all right.
34:04I know. I know. Because at that point, you don't have to second guess yourself about what's happening on the defense.
34:10You only have to think about the route that your wide receiver is running.
34:14That's it. You can lock in on a guy.
34:17It doesn't matter. You're timing it up. You're seeing when the separation is going to be there.
34:22And you're going to give him a chance. So there's not enough thinking involved.
34:26And I agree with you. I believe that that was part of the catalyst of what really just let Tyler Shuck catch
34:33fire is he just didn't have to think as much.
34:36And he got to play very free with a heck of an arm.
34:40And obviously, we saw what the results can be with them almost taking down Detroit and Detroit.
34:45Now, one of the reasons why they didn't take down Detroit, because I want to be a little positive about them, too.
34:52Jameer Gibbs. Not bad. The MVP candidate that we highlighted in our season preview is off to a good start.
34:58Yeah. Absolutely. If even most games are like that, he's going to end up with 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
35:03Yeah. What was his final yards from scrimmage here in this game?
35:07What do we have? I think it was like 160.
35:10Here it is. So, he had 156 rushing yards on 29 attempts.
35:14And then he had five targets, five catches for 30 yards.
35:17So, it was 186 total yards on the day for him.
35:20Two touchdowns. And yeah, he also ran 17 routes to go along with 29 carries.
35:25They paid him. They're going to use him. They paid him.
35:28And they are going to use him. And obviously, it's a great thing when you do use a player that does that talent.
35:35He was great. Penne was great. Amon Ross scored.
35:38Like, all the usual suspects. I mean, Jamison, he had a bad drop.
35:42But all the usual guys that we praised for Detroit's offense showed up.
35:46Yep. You know, Blake Miller. My guy. My guy.
35:48First start. Not bad. You know, we worry about the health of the interior because they're already down two-thirds of it as
35:55far as what we had a month ago. I saw Mahogany got hurt.
35:59I didn't check on that afterwards. So, I don't know the severity of it.
36:03But Mays already went down. Right. Yeah. Not great.
36:06We worry about that. But I think Detroit's offense is going to be fine.
36:10What I worry about is the defense. Can they find a solution that isn't man coverage?
36:15Because I don't think they can play. Are they going to be willing to?
36:19Maybe a good way to say it, too. They're very stubborn.
36:23The Buccaneers and the Cincinnati Bengals, reluctantly for me, as somebody born just south of Tampa, Florida, talking about this game.
36:29But, hey, I want to give credit to Cincinnati's offensive line.
36:32And I want to give credit to their offensive line because it just feels like the narrative has been so old and
36:39tired that Cincinnati doesn't have a good offensive line.
36:42They've never invested in an O-line. They can't protect Joe Burrow.
36:45Look, this is a revamped Buccaneers defensive line that has some really good players on it.
36:50And outside of Kalijah Kansi getting the better of Dylan Fairchild and quite a few one-on-one matchups that they had because Kansi
36:56was great in this game, I thought Cincinnati's offensive line played very, very well.
37:01Outside of Fairchild, every other Bengals offensive lineman had a pressure percentage below 8.1% per next-gen stats.
37:06Specifically, Amarius Mims, who we talked about as really maybe taking that leap as that top offensive tackle there on the team,
37:12only allowed two pressures on 37 total dropbacks. So, for me, that was a big-time story for me.
37:18There's a lot of things to kind of take away from this one.
37:22Look, if you're going to turn the ball over four times, it's really hard to beat anybody.
37:27I think the Bucs were, I don't want to say lucky because it was their own talent to come back in this game.
37:34But for them to even make it as close as they did with four turnovers is a credit to them, but also
37:40a reality that you just cannot be doing that.
37:43But, man, Cincinnati's offensive line, I thought, did a really, really good job in this game, and it's a great sign for
37:50what could be the ceiling of this Bengals offense and just overall this team.
37:54If I'm a Bengals fan, I'm really happy that we won in a way that wasn't the usual.
37:59Right? This wasn't, oh, we're calling 989 over and over again.
38:03Yeah. Jamar, it's T. Yeah. It's Joe. Yeah. You know, it's 35 to 33.
38:07It wasn't like that. Right? The pass rush played really well.
38:10Like, Cassius and Boye both had four pressures each.
38:13Like, the first strip sack six since he got was actually...
38:16Way to enunciate that. That would have been... That was the...
38:20I could see the tongue twister. I was working through it.
38:23I was like... You were practicing that in the mirror.
38:26I could see, and it was great. I'm giving you your flowers here.
38:30That was good. But that... It started off with a Boye-Mashe pressure against a very good right tackle in Luka Deke.
38:36Yeah. Right? Yeah. So he flushed Baker. The OTB route was open.
38:40And Baker would have thrown it if he didn't have to step up away.
38:44And so then, you know, the windows close, unfortunately.
38:47So then you got to move out of the pocket, try to create a play.
38:51You know, just like a second phase. But he got ran down from behind.
38:56Stripped. Ran it back. Like... But that all started because Boye got the pressure.
39:00Mm-hmm. Right? The guy they invested in this offseason.
39:03Yeah. Cassius got four pressures. He even got around Tristan Wirfs one time.
39:06Yeah. I'm like, dude, if you can run the arc on Tristan Wirfs and flatten at an eight-yard depth, most of the
39:13time Tristan's going to push you to ten. You're not going to get a shot at the quarterback.
39:19Right. You got to pressure running the ring at eight yards on Tristan Wirfs.
39:23Yeah. That's a major win. A lot of the Bucs O-line stats didn't really look good in this game.
39:29You know, when you look at them in next gen.
39:32I think a little bit of it is skewed because, to me, the offensive line and Mayfield just kind of weren't on the same page.
39:39Like, with how long he wanted to hold onto the ball, where he wanted to step up.
39:44It just felt as though they really were not very cohesive.
39:48The offensive line just didn't have a good feel for where the ball was and where Mayfield was, I think, all day long.
39:54Two interesting notes for the Bucs offense in this game that I think are worth noting moving forward.
40:00Mayfield had 12 passes behind the line of scrimmage in this game, which was tied for the second most in a single
40:07game in the Mayfield era that he has been with the Buccaneers.
40:10So you think of all of the different offensive coordinators that the Buccaneers have had while Mayfield has been there.
40:16There's been like four of them. Yeah. I mean, you can barely count it on one hand.
40:21I wonder, hey, is this sort of a lean into the Zach Robinson version of what we're seeing here where it's a
40:28lot of stuff at or behind the line of scrimmage?
40:31They're really going to invest a little bit more in the screen game?
40:35Are the running backs now? Maybe even from a fantasy perspective, are they going to get more involved in the screen game and in the passing game?
40:43And then I think they got to get Ted Hurst the ball a little bit more.
40:48Ted Hurst didn't have a single target, didn't have a single catch until the fourth quarter, but caught all three of his targets.
40:55And he had the highest QBR of any of the wide receivers in this game.
40:59So I think it might be time to get Ted Hurst involved in the offense a little bit more there from Tampa's side of things.
41:07And I think that'll just make Emeka more effective, right?
41:10Because Hurst is really more of an X than Emeka is.
41:13So if Hurst is just like, that's the pillar that we put there at X, he's on line of scrimmage.
41:19We can move around Emeka. We can move around everybody else.
41:23But that's what it revolves around, like that fence post in the ground.
41:27I think it can make their overall pass game better.
41:30I think the talent they have on the offensive line and at the skill positions, this should be a good offense.
41:36They just need to not turn it over four times, right?
41:39And if I was the Bengals, I'm very encouraged by the pass rush.
41:43I'm encouraged by the offensive line. I'm encouraged by the fact that Jamar was held, not even in check.
41:49Jamar didn't do anything in the game. Yeah. And they still were okay.
41:53Which you got to feel good about if you're the Bengals.
41:56Yeah. It means we don't have to have him go off, right?
42:00And also, by the way, Jamar didn't do anything.
42:02That was largely because of the buck corners that we talked about.
42:06Which is a big question mark for them. We were worried about it.
42:10Yeah. They did okay. They did do okay. Yeah.
42:13No doubt. I mean, there was a whole bunch of individual matchups.
42:16I was looking at the matchup data on next-gen stats.
42:19So Keontae Scott matched up with him 10 times.
42:22That's a lot for rookie. He gave up the only catch that went for any yardage.
42:27He gave up one catch for 16. And then when he got targeted against Benjamin Morrison, the other young corner that you're excited about, he lost four yards.
42:35And every other Bucs corner didn't give up a single catch against him.
42:39So if we're giving it up two for 12 against one of the three best receivers in football, I feel a lot
42:46better about the Bucs corners now than I did a day ago.
42:50I agree. I agree with you. We got to touch on the Cardinals and the Chargers because this was the game where
42:56I think the Chargers, whether it was from win probability or odds to win this game, whatever it was, the Chargers are kind of a runaway here.
43:04And the Cardinals come away with the victory here in SoFi.
43:0826 to 14 is the final score here of this one.
43:11Overall thoughts on sort of how this happens. I mean, is this a tip of the cap to the Arizona Cardinals in the Mike LaFleur era?
43:19Or is it more of, okay, Chargers, this is not good here.
43:22What's your bigger takeaway here from this game? So the next gen stats win probability model had this at 80% in favor of the Chargers.
43:30Which, to our credit. We both said, ugh, I don't know about that.
43:34We were like, 80? I mean, 60 maybe. I believe 60, but 80?
43:38With how potent this Cardinals offense was last season?
43:41What, was that just going to go poof, gone?
43:43I think potent, sort of, inefficient through volume, I think they put up a lot.
43:48But, like, you look at the... James Harden's still an all-star.
43:51James Harden's still getting paid. Volume shooter, baby. But if you look at, like, beyond empty calories, right?
43:57If you look at the substance that they added on the offensive line in the backfield, because we love Jeremiah Love.
44:03They made additions to the offensive line this offseason, bringing in Samal.
44:07Unfortunately, Besantis got injured, but, like, they made an actual effort to improve the offensive line.
44:11Quarterback is what quarterback is. But we said if Jacoby Versace doesn't lose the game, there's so much talent around him with the receivers.
44:19Trey McBride, you have one of the best tight ends in football.
44:22You have a great back. You have an improved offensive line.
44:26We knew they could put up points, even against what we think is still going to be a very good Chargers defense.
44:32It was just, can the Cardinals' defense and special teams still be on that level where the offense can score enough and still win the game.
44:40They were. Yes. Yes. And I thought that the Cardinals' offense was also much more efficient and regulated, it feels like, than what the Chargers were.
44:48We spent, so many people spent all offseason just talking about the what if of Mike McDaniel's offense with the Chargers and Justin Herbert.
44:55And, like, there were moments where it was good, but it was not consistent.
44:59And I think the time of possession speaks to that alone.
45:03Cardinals' time of possession, 37 minutes, 31 seconds. Chargers, 22 minutes, 29 seconds.
45:07When you look at third and fourth down, the Chargers, EPA per play, bottom eight in the NFL so far this week.
45:13We've got a couple games left to finish up, but, like, bottom eight in the league when it came to converting on those third and fourth downs.
45:21I think specifically, the big point to note here with the Chargers, though, is how night and day different in a bad
45:28way this offense was when Ladd McConkie got hurt.
45:31When Ladd went out in the third quarter, we can look at on-off splits with NextGen.
45:36With Ladd McConkie on the field, okay, they had an EPA per play of 0.12 and 8.9 yards per pass average.
45:42When Ladd McConkie was not on the field, it went from 8.9 yards per pass average to a 3.9.
45:48Five whole yards! It's not functioning. And the EPA per play went from a positive to a negative, negative 0.61.
45:54Herbert had no chemistry with any other receiver that was not named Ladd McConkie.
45:58That's worrisome. I just... The Chargers always feel like they're one injury away from catastrophe.
46:02And unfortunately... Because they are. Well, unfortunately, this team has suffered those injuries, so we have seen a lot of the downturn and the spiral.
46:10But, like, you gotta be deeper than that, man.
46:13And I think Herbert, he sensed... He sensed that they were in trouble late in the game, and he pressed.
46:19Like, that interception that he had... For sure. Yes.
46:21And they set it up well, right? It's a quarters beater.
46:25It's okay, we're gonna pin this safety down. We've got the vertical behind it.
46:29But Roy Lopez got a pressure right up the middle, and it kind of flushed Herbert to the right.
46:35Wingard on the backside didn't have any vertical threat to his side, so he was free to go hunt.
46:40Easy. That's how quarters coverage works. Easy. And when Herbert's rolling to his right, he's especially thinking, like, oh, I'm just gonna follow his eyes.
46:48I'm gonna flow with him. Herbert's eyes took him right to the ball, because he had no other responsibility holding him on the backside.
46:55Yeah. And when Herbert's moving, the defense is gonna move with him.
46:59It was a mistake. He was... It was first and ten!
47:02Yeah. In the fourth quarter! He was frustrated. He was very frustrated.
47:06Yeah. He was very frustrated. And I think part of it is he was not getting enough from the third phase of
47:12the game, and I think he felt that pressure.
47:15That third phase being special teams. Mm-hmm. This is NFL Pro, so we will talk about special teams EPA per play.
47:22Hell yeah, baby. That, to me, was really what kick-started...
47:25Tell him. ...that pressure that led to the Herbert interception.
47:28Right? That punt block, that was plus four in EPA.
47:31Yeah. Yeah. A special teams play added four expected points for the Cardinals in this game, or took away four expected points, however you want to phrase it.
47:39The Cardinals special teams was dead last in the NFL in EPA per play last year.
47:44They were sixth best in the NFL this week, as of us recording this.
47:48We'll see what happens with Monday Night Football. But the fact that they had four massive special teams plays, you had the
47:55punt block, you had really good kickoff coverage from them, you had good punt coverage from them.
48:00Like, repeatedly, the Chargers would take these kickoffs, get to the 23-24, late in the game got to the 13.
48:06And I think if you're looking at, you know, all the hidden yardage or lack of yardage they were getting on special
48:13teams that Herbert then had to make up. Right.
48:15Because they were getting bad field position. Like, that just put so much pressure on him.
48:20It led to that crucial mistake. They were already kind of in trouble before that.
48:25And that's how you lose a game that you're, quote-unquote, 80% supposed to win.
48:29Yes. Yeah. Week one. Man, it's a beautiful mystery to solve that you try.
48:33And obviously, I think that it takes a couple more weeks to be able to do that.
48:38We could sit here and honestly talk all night about week one takeaways because it feels like there's so many of them.
48:45There's so many different directions that you could go.
48:48But we got to dive into the tape before we get to that.
48:51These were some of the numbers that really stood out to us when we were watching live and we were working with
48:58the NGS group, which, man, shout out to that team.
49:01Do an incredible job. I hopefully you guys already understand from just this first week one reaction show how powerful that NGS
49:08team is and how fun these shows are going to be that we're reacting to all the week one madness and everything.
49:14So the next show that we have for you guys coming to you on Friday, like we said, we're going to get to the tape.
49:22So we're going to have some X's and O's breakdowns.
49:25Obviously, more numbers to talk about, you know, what we saw this week, what we think we're going to see in week two.
49:32And then obviously, as the season goes on as well, we're going to take a look at those league trends on both sides of the ball.
49:40Hey, sometimes the third phase as well. We're going to take a look at those league trends, see where anybody's getting an advantage.
49:47So make sure that you guys are subscribed to the channel here at NFL Pro to make sure that you can come
49:53back and hang out with us every single episode.
49:56For Brett Coleman, I'm Trevor Sykema saying thank you guys for watching.
50:00We'll see you guys on Friday. That's it for our week one reaction show.
50:04Thank you so much for listening. And we'll be back Friday to get you ready for all the week two action.
50:10Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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