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Brett Kollmann & Trevor Sikkema’s Week 3 Preview | NFL Pro

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Levis, despite having all the tools in the world, was not immediately picked up as a backup and instead signed to the Jets practice squad; the source explains that the most important part of having a backup quarterback is having somebody you trust, and Levis does not yet have that trust factor with NFL teams.
Mariota as a Commanders backup can preserve the offensive identity with roughly the same skill set as Jaden Daniels, though he would not be used in intentional run plays given his age.
Going from Jaden Daniels to backup Marcus Mariota involves roughly the same skill set, though Daniels is more dynamic; the source notes that the playbook would not need significant changes, though Mariota would not be intentionally run at his age.
Winston as a Chargers backup would require playbook adjustments from Jackson Dart's system, as his lack of mobility means the team cannot intentionally run the same mobile-quarterback schemes that are central to Dart's offensive role.
Wentz as a Cardinals backup can preserve the offensive identity without shrinking the playbook, as his skill set is fundamentally similar to Kyler Murray's, allowing the team to maintain their offensive system.
Going from Kyler Murray to backup Wentz does not necessarily shrink the Cardinals' playbook; the source notes that while Kyler will execute the offense with more regularity, the fundamental offensive identity is preserved with Wentz.
Keenum as a backup for Caleb Williams would require the Bears to shrink their playbook and change their offensive identity, as his skill set differs significantly from Williams' capabilities.
Going from Caleb Williams to backup Case Keenum would require a different playbook; the source contrasts this with the Darnold-to-Locke transition, noting that Keenum's skill set would necessitate offensive adjustments, whereas Locke can preserve the Bears' offensive identity.
Locke has been effective as the Vikings' backup, capable of making the same throws as starter Sam Darnold and preserving the offensive identity without requiring a playbook shrink; the source credits him with strong early-season performance and notes that his skill set allows the Vikings to maintain their bread-and-butter plays.
Darnold will execute the throws that backup Drew Locke can make with more regularity; the source notes that Locke's ability to run the same offensive plays preserves the Vikings' offensive identity, meaning Darnold's return would maintain continuity while improving execution consistency.
Had good volume stats last week, but the source cautions that this was driven by high touch count rather than efficiency. The Raiders run defense is elite, allowing 0.9 yards before contact per attempt (same as last year, best in NFL), 34% success rate allowed (sixth best), negative 19.5 EPA allowed on the ground, and negative 0.39 EPA per carry allowed (both best in NFL). The source notes Hampton's volume stats 'added up over time' but the Raiders make run games inefficient.
Playing at an elite level; the source describes this as 'a kind of normal Dak season now' and notes 'when he is at his best, he is damn near unstoppable.' In week two, Dak had 5 throws getting over 100 yards, 4 of 5 for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns on vertical routes (3 total TDs this season on vertical routes, fifth most in the league), and made 'unbelievable' throws in the fourth quarter including far hash hole shots to CeeDee Lamb. The source emphasizes his elite arm talent and decision-making.
Cowboys have two top-15 receivers in the league; the source notes that despite concerns about Pickens taking over the number one role from CeeDee Lamb due to his strong season last year, both receivers are elite and can go off at any point. The offense is so talented that it doesn't matter which one has the big game—as long as Dak Prescott is playing well, the Cowboys are unstoppable.
Explosive performance in week two; the source highlights that into the boundary last week, Lamb was 8 of 9 for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns (fourth most in a game this season). On vertical routes in week two, he had 4 of 5 for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. The source emphasizes that despite concerns about George Pickens taking over the number one role, Lamb and Pickens are both top-15 receivers who can go off at any point, and Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level, making the Cowboys offense 'bananas.'
Getting more involved in Ravens passing attack when Zay Flowers is out, but the source expresses concern about his current form. He notes Andrews is 'a little bit long in the tooth here as a veteran tight end' and 'he's not the same Mark Andrews that he was a couple of years ago,' suggesting diminished effectiveness despite increased usage.
Receiving increased target volume when Zay Flowers is out; the source notes he's being leaned on more heavily in the Ravens passing attack during Flowers' absence, though the overall offense becomes less explosive without Flowers' skill set.
Ravens offense is dramatically different with and without him; on-off splits show yards per attempt drops from 18.0 to 8.2, success rate falls from 63.6% to 55.2%, and explosive play rate plummets from 54.5% to 17.2% when he's out. The source emphasizes the Ravens lack a true replacement with his skill set—LeJonte Wester is the closest option but cannot replicate Flowers' impact. Without him, the offense pivots to Mark Andrews and Rashad Bateman, but this fundamentally changes the scheme and reduces explosiveness. The source notes this is worth monitoring throughout the season as a potential vulnerability.
Facing Rams man coverage; the source notes the Broncos may dial up pocket movement and bootleg plays to mitigate chaos at the line of scrimmage, as crossing routes off-boot tend to perform well against man coverage when paired with receivers like Jalen Waddell or Cortland Sutton.
Johnson's pass-play success rate as the Bears' play caller is significantly lower on plays with motion against Brian Flores' Vikings defense compared to any other opponent; motion often serves as a formation indicator (man vs. zone), but the Vikings play zone regardless, negating the deception value.
Through two weeks of 2026, Rodgers has the lowest EPA per dropback against man coverage in the NFL (lower than Derek Knicks' second-worst -0.68); the source notes that being in Rodgers' territory for poor man-coverage performance is not a compliment, especially to start the 2026 season.
Mahomes ran the air raid in college and was part of the wave of air raid quarterbacks entering the NFL that led to the spread offense era; this contributed to the shift away from condensed 12-personnel schemes.
Goff ran the air raid in college and was part of the wave of air raid quarterbacks entering the NFL that led to the spread offense era; this contributed to the shift away from condensed 12-personnel schemes.
Mariota's arrival from Oregon (where he ran the air raid) was part of the wave of air raid quarterbacks entering the NFL that led to the spread offense era; this contributed to the shift away from condensed 12-personnel schemes.
Edelman is cited as an archetype that teams tried to replicate during the 12-personnel era; he exemplified the move tight end/slot receiver role that was central to the Patriots' offensive scheme.
Welker is cited as an archetype that teams tried to replicate during the 12-personnel era; he exemplified the move tight end/slot receiver role that was central to the Patriots' offensive scheme.
Allen was part of the Colts' one-two tight end combination with Kobe Fleener, exemplifying the 12-personnel trend where teams sought to replicate the Patriots' success with multiple tight ends playing specific roles.
Olson is cited as an example of a unicorn-type tight end who could effectively execute the 12-personnel heavy tight end scheme; the source notes that without elite talent like Gronkowski, Graham, or Olson, the 12-personnel strategy does not work.
Graham is cited as an example of a unicorn-type tight end who could effectively execute the 12-personnel heavy tight end scheme; the source notes that without elite talent like Gronkowski, Graham, or Greg Olson, the 12-personnel strategy does not work.
Gronkowski is cited as an example of a unicorn-type tight end who could effectively execute the 12-personnel heavy tight end scheme that the Patriots ran in 2011; the source notes that without elite talent like Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, or Greg Olson, the 12-personnel strategy does not work.
Nix's design rollout rate increased from 6% in week one to 19.4% in week two (third highest among starters), and he has posted a 0.74 EPA per dropback on those design rollouts, which is the second most this season; this is a strategic counter to defensive pressure and line-of-scrimmage chaos.
The 49ers have been using Juszczyk on motions where he's positioned as a fullback but moving as the ball snaps, creating fast inserts at warp speed that are difficult for linebackers and defensive linemen to react to; this creates new gaps on the fly at high pace.
Herbert is projected to finish as QB1 this week despite being 0-2 with the second-worst QBR in the NFL and interception issues. The source argues there are 'a lot of haters' and that Herbert, who has one of the biggest arms in the NFL, is 'due in such a meaningful way.' The Chargers face a favorable matchup this week, and the source is bullish on his breakout potential.
Wilson is a top-five fantasy wide receiver this week against the Lions; the Lions have given up the second-most passing yards per game through two weeks and are dealing with injuries on the back end of their defense. The Lions play a lot of man coverage, and Wilson has the skill set to exploit this. The game has shootout potential, and Wilson should get the lion's share of passing yards for the Jets.
Loveland is fantasy's biggest bust through two games with an 8% target rate and has combined with Rome Odunze for fewer than 16 total fantasy points through two weeks. The source would play Pat Freiermuth or A.J. Barner over Loveland this week against the Eagles, whose defense has been tough against tight ends.
Odunze is a sit this week; he and Colston Loveland have combined for fewer than 16 total fantasy points through two weeks. Odunze has a 12% target rate and has been heavily outproduced by Khalif Raymond. The Bears might be down to third-string quarterback Case Keenum, and the Eagles defense has been tough against outside receivers. The source would legitimately bench Odunze for tons of flex options.
Bowers has been banged up this season, which has been a buzzkill for those who drafted him highly. The source notes this as a disappointment, though the Raiders are sitting at 2-0 despite his injury issues.
Schultz is a flex play or even a start at tight end this week with 14 targets last week; the source recommends playing two tight ends if you have a better primary tight end option. The Colts linebackers have not been great this season, making this a favorable matchup, especially with the Texans' wide receiver position banged up and Nico Collins up and down.
Flowers is a start if healthy this week; he's been dealing with a hamstring injury but is the Ravens' passing offense. When Flowers was on the field in week one, the Ravens had 173 yards after the catch versus only 86 in week two when he was out. The source recommends putting him in the flex spot to wait for Saturday/Sunday injury updates, then starting him if he's healthy.
Williams is a sit this week against the Jets despite being a threat for a big play; he's posted consecutive single-digit fantasy performances and the matchup is poor. Against receivers aligned out wide, the Jets have allowed just 5.7 yards per target and a league-low 4% explosive catch rate. Only Seattle has allowed fewer downfield receptions, making this unfavorable for Williams' big-play upside.
McConkey is a borderline top-10 receiver this week despite LA's troubles and his rib injury; he's been very good when on the field with 3 yards per route run and a 26% target rate. Only Jackson Smith-Njigba has a higher EPA per route on at least 35 routes. The Bills have been wrecked by wide receiver ones (Nico Collins, Amon Ra), making this a favorable matchup.


