Press Coverage - Fantasy Football Lessons Learned
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
20 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 25, 2026
Published
Sun, October 25, 2026
5
Player insights
5
Players mentioned
Topics
Isaiah LikelyJavonte WilliamsJosh DownsKyren WilliamsMatthew Golden
Player analysis
Player insights
Isaiah Likely
NegativeBust1:03
The source was bearish on Isaiah Likely's price in all formats for 2026, citing concerns about his role with the Giants. Likely is not an in-line tight end but rather a big wide receiver playing the least snaps in-line of any tight end in the NFL, raising questions about his availability in goal-line formations where tight ends must block. The source also worried about competition from Malik Nabors, a target-dominant player, and projected the Giants to be run-heavy under Jackson Dart. However, the source was wrong: Likely has become one of the best tight ends in fantasy football. The source's miss stemmed from underestimating offensive variance (Dart could improve and the offense could pass more), not accounting for the coaching change's impact, and failing to recognize how poor the rest of the Giants' pass catchers were, forcing the team to make Likely target-dominant by default.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeBust9:54
The source was bullish on Javante Williams early in the offseason, expecting him to re-sign with Dallas and maintain his role, and recommended drafting and buying him in Dynasty. However, as his price rose to the third round, the source faded him, citing concerns about his 2025 inefficiency as a pass catcher and historical precedent that running backs with poor pass-catching efficiency rarely maintain the same workload. The source viewed him as a thin bet at that price point. However, the source was wrong: Williams is scoring heavily in 2026, duplicating his touchdown-reliant production from 2025. The Cowboys are in the red zone very often and Williams is the only guy getting those opportunities, making his touchdowns highly projectable regardless of per-touch efficiency. The source's miss was underestimating how dominant the Cowboys offense is and how many red-zone opportunities Williams would receive.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeBust16:15
The source was bullish on Josh Downs heading into 2026, noting his efficiency as a slot receiver and expecting his role to expand. With the Colts removing Michael Pittman and not adding significant wide receiver talent, the source believed Downs would be forced into a full-time role and play outside, not just in the slot. The Colts coaching staff confirmed this plan during training camp and preseason. However, Downs has been a complete disappointment at his draft cost despite getting the expanded role he and the source wanted. The source attributes this partly to Daniel Jones being unexpectedly bad after his magical run with the Colts, noting that Jones was never that good to begin with and his decline has hurt all Colts pass catchers. The source's miss was underestimating how much Jones' injury recovery and regression would impact Downs' production, and failing to recognize that scaling up a player's role does not always result in improved efficiency or fantasy production.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveProjection12:57
The source was moderately bullish on Kyron Williams early in the offseason but cooled on him as Blake Warren took on part of the backfield work in the second half of 2025, with the two becoming nearly even split on carries. The source projected a similar split for 2026, with Kyron getting most receiving work but losing rushing volume, making him an okay pick at his cost but not a great one. The source was mostly correct on the carry split, but significantly underestimated Kyron's pass-game usage. Kyron is now receiving a 14–15% target share week-to-week, significantly higher than the Rams' historical low rate of throwing to running backs. This elevated target share has transformed him from a high-end RB2 into a top-8 running back. The source attributes this to the Rams' offensive injuries requiring someone to step up in the pass game and potentially Matthew Stafford's declining arm strength causing him to check down more frequently.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
NegativeBreakout5:33
The source was at market consensus on Matthew Golden as a prospect, acknowledging his route-running ability and athleticism (fast 40 time) but concerned about his college production profile translating to the NFL. Golden had a rough rookie season with only a few plays away from being bigger, and the source was not confident he would make a big jump in year two despite being projected as an every-down player once the Packers cleared out their wide receiver depth chart. The source also liked Jaden Reed and Christian Watson, making it harder to project Golden's large step forward. However, Golden made a significant leap in year two. The source's miss was twofold: underestimating his improvement trajectory as a second-year player and, critically, not applying his own projection that the Packers would pass significantly more this season through Golden, despite writing and talking about increased Packers passing volume often.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00We all have hits and misses for the fantasy football season and today I'm gonna reflect on my biggest misses What is
0:07going on everybody welcome on into another episode of Press Coverage we help you get an edge in fantasy football I'm your
0:14host is always Wyatt Bertalone and today I'm talking about some of my biggest misses my worst calls for the 2026 fantasy
0:21football season This is a practice that I tried to do every single year now is about the time where we've gathered
0:28enough information where it's pretty easy to say if a player was a hit or a miss At least what it seems
0:35like they're gonna be for the rest of the season how much of one they were to start the season by this
0:42time We have real data that is projectable forward throughout the season So I think is now is right time to start
0:49reflecting on the things that I got wrong and my process to get to those decisions and how to improve from there
0:56The first player I'm starting off with who I think was my biggest miss for this season and that is Isaiah Likely
1:03I actually wrote and podcasted a good amount about how I was not a fan of Isaiah Likely's price In all formats
1:10for 2026 and in Dynasty So during his time with the Ravens We get really excited for him as a rookie when
1:17at the end of the season he gets playing time while Mark Andrews is out and he plays really well And after
1:24that we keep every year going Well, this is the year that Isaiah Likely is gonna take a bigger role in the
1:31offense You know and he's gonna start to take time away from Mark Andrews and that never happened Dirk while he was
1:38with the Ravens didn't matter what he did doesn't matter when he has the two touchdown game against Kansas City or whatever
1:45game He wasn't getting those opportunities like we thought he might after what he showed as a rookie And basically since his
1:52rookie season he had never been worth The cost or value assigned to him in any year because of that He leaves
1:59the Ravens this offseason to sign with the Giants Follows Harbaugh there He gets a good contract I noted this offseason that
2:06that is while it is a good contract That is just kind of the contract Titans get of a certain level Uh
2:13at this point, you know He has a contract similar to Cole Komet, you know So while it's a nice contract and
2:20it does ensure some amount of opportunity in playing time It wasn't one that necessarily like got me super excited for what
2:27the possibilities were Then on the Giants This is a team that projected to be a more run-heavy team behind Jackson Dart
2:34We knew that Malik Nabors was there and while he was coming back from an injury He was projecting to be healthy
2:41And even if he was slow to start the season, he's gonna be healthy at some point And Malik Nabors is a
2:48target dominant player One of the most targeted dominant players in the entire NFL And when you start putting that together I'm
2:55starting to think Okay How many opportunities are actually going to be available for Isaiah Likely?
3:00Because you also have to worry about that Isaiah Likely is not an in-line tight end at all He is he is
3:07a big wide receiver This is true of a lot of tight ends And is very true of Isaiah Likely He does
3:14not play in-line at all I believe right now he's playing the least amount of snaps in line of any tight end
3:21in the NFL And if that's the case Will he be in on all the formations we want him to?
3:27Because a lot of teams they'll run play action near the goal line And during those times more often than not Those
3:34tight ends have to at least be a competent blocker So that defense believe that they're going to block Otherwise teams won't
3:41have him on the field Those opportunities So you know adding all that together I just I didn't feel like the cost
3:48was worth the projection for Isaiah Likely And obviously that was very wrong Isaiah Likely is one of the best tight ends
3:55in fantasy football right now And it doesn't seem like that's going to change And I think where I messed up Was
4:02I didn't give enough Credence to Some sort of variance In what could happen with the offense And how many pass attempts
4:09there could actually be You know projecting it for it to be a run heavy offense Even if Jackson Dart doesn't get
4:16hurt Seems a little wrong in retrospect Because Jackson Dart can prove This is a player I liked I like Jackson Dart
4:23He can improve He can get better He can become a better passer They could move towards more passing in the offense
4:30If that happens It doesn't matter if Isaiah Likely isn't a full-time player He can have that opportunity to go to him
4:37I also messed up Not putting enough into the coaching change And what that will do You know while last year Jackson
4:44Dart run heavy offense We've got new coaching staff top to bottom And while to me those coaches project to be another
4:51run heavy offense That's not necessarily the case And the thing that I think I messed up on lastly With Isaiah Likely
4:58Is that I didn't account for how bad just everyone else was I mean it was bad Like it's very obvious how
5:05bad it was But I didn't realize it was going to be so bad That the Giants were willing to just say
5:12Screw it Isaiah Likely is playing all the time And he's going to be target dominant As opposed to On top of
5:19all these other players Like no one else matters There's only two pass catchers in this offense Who matter whatsoever And I
5:26didn't give enough Into that possibility So I miss on Isaiah Likely My biggest miss of the season I think pretty easily
5:33The next player that I'm going to talk about Is Matthew Golden Now Matthew Golden As a prospect I was kind of
5:40at market consensus with him I thought he was a decent prospect I thought that there were some red flags to his
5:47production And that was the biggest knock on him But I did understand From listening to a lot of The film experts
5:54that I trust That this is a dude who's a really good route runner And he gets open in the ways That
6:01you want your fantasy football wide receivers To get open Across the middle deep He gets himself open for High opportunity targets
6:08That really matter For fantasy football He goes out and runs that really fast 40 time Might have been slightly fraudulent But
6:15it at least showed that he's like Definitely A really good athlete And He gets drafted in the first round By the
6:22Packers But I still have a little bit of concern about What that production profile looks like in college Is it going
6:29to be able to translate to the NFL Then he has a rough rookie season Yes, there were a few times Where
6:36he was just like fingertips away From some big plays That if he gets a couple of those It really kind of
6:43changes the outlook Of his rookie season But it wasn't enough to me To really say like Ah, I think he's going
6:50to make this big jump In year two I also really liked Jaden Reed I think Jaden Reed's just a really talented
6:57player Whenever he's been healthy He's been productive And then there's Christian Watson as well Who I think is a very good
7:04wide receiver Again, with him It's just a matter of health So it was hard for me to project that Matthew Gold
7:11would take this large step Even though He was projected To be close to an every down player In the offense Once
7:18they make the moves To clear things out For the wide receiver trio They had there It looks like Matthew Gold's going
7:25to be playing More often than not The majority of the time Probably a full-time role Because he's play outside Jaden Reed
7:32We know they only want to stay in the slot That's what he's doing So I realize that that's going to happen
7:39But He still has to take advantage Of that opportunity And I wasn't positive That that was going to be the case And What can you say?
7:48He made the big leap Into year two I should have Left more room open For him to improve As a player
7:55Going into his second year I expected improvement I didn't expect This much Of an improvement That we're seeing right now And
8:02that's where I went wrong I did end up with some Matthew Golden Across my like Best ball portfolio As the Summer
8:09went on Because His price I thought was okay For the fact that He looked like he was going to have This
8:16every down roll And he's a first round pick He's got some pedigree So like I can I can see the vision
8:23With Matthew Golden But I wasn't drafting A lot of him Because Again I was worried that he would Actually take that
8:30jump And Another way that I went wrong And this one And kind of beat myself up against Or beat myself up
8:37Is that I was projecting the Packers To pass a lot more this season I talked about it often I wrote about
8:44it often This was something I was playing into But I never played into it Through Matthew Golden And that was a
8:51big mistake But we're going to take A quick second To hear about The player rankings And when we come back I've
8:58got more players for you You know I get asked Is AI ruining fantasy sports And the answer is Absolutely not We've
9:05had consensus rankings Available for a long time But people subscribe to the player rankings At playerprofiler.com For super flex Tight end
9:12premium Best ball Even like Offensive line rankings Of course your rookie rankings Your dynasty rankings Those are all available In the
9:19ranking service For playerprofiler.com Password protected So the bots Can't get to it And you can maintain Your edge And use code
9:26Podfather For five dollars off Woo It's a good deal Back here on Press Coverage Just talking about Some of my biggest
9:33misses For the 2026 Fantasy football season If you haven't liked Do so if you're listening On your favorite podcast platform Raise
9:40five stars And leave me a comment Everywhere I'd love to know Who your biggest miss was For the 2026 Fantasy football
9:47season But we've got to keep moving on To the next player And this next one Is Javante Williams Making it two
9:54seasons in a row In which I was on the wrong side Of Javante Williams And this one hurts Especially because Early
10:01this offseason I was in on Javante Williams I was kind of Piling the table That he's going to Re-sign with Dallas
10:08And he's going to be Back in this role And you're going to be Wanted drafting him On your fantasy teams You
10:15want to buy him In Dynasty And then What I thought was going To happen Did happen And his price started To
10:22rise to a point That I wasn't Super interested anymore I still had to recognize Some things about Javante's 2025 season Where
10:29he was really Touchdown reliant And he was Super inefficient As a pass catcher And history has shown As when a running
10:36back Is that inefficient As a pass catcher Pass catcher They're unlikely To get that same Kind of workload As a pass
10:43catcher In the future And once he got To the third round Of seasonal leagues That price was Too much for me
10:50To bet on him To continue to score A lot of touchdowns When he might not Also get as much Passing work
10:57As he did the year prior I just felt like It was starting to get To be a really thin Bet at
11:04that price And I didn't want To buy in on that anymore So I started to actually Fade Javante Williams Over the
11:11course of the Summer more and more And ended up not Without very much Javante Williams In my portfolio For this season
11:18And obviously that sucks Because The Cowboys are just In the red zone Very often And Javante's The only guy And while
11:25He was heavy Reliant on touchdowns In 2025 It looks like He can easily Duplicate that In 2026 With just How often
11:32He's able to get Those opportunities Regardless of how Efficient he is It's not like He's being particularly Efficient right now It's
11:39just He's on there For all those Opportunities And I kind of expected The Cowboys To do more With their backfield I
11:46kind of expected Them to add somebody And they really did And even as the Summer went on It's like Yeah but
11:53Like Someone's going to Get some of these Touches J.M.
11:56Blue's Going to be fine Not You know Something will happen No he's just Getting it all He's getting all the Opportunities
12:03near the goal Line They're near the goal Line a lot Doesn't matter how Good he is Actually on a Per touch
12:10basis Because he is The only guy He will be the Only guy This is a really Good offense And that's just
12:17All there is to it And while I still Think it was a Really thin needle To thread He's threading it And
12:24there's There's no way Around that It's not as thin I would say As I originally Thought But it's still Pretty thin
12:31bet But obviously I was wrong You know And I needed to put More emphasis On the fact That this is just
12:38Such a good offense That even if I think He's inefficient And he might lose Some of these Passed down opportunities He
12:45can make up for it Because he's going to Get these at touchdowns The touchdowns were Actually very projectable For Javante Williams
12:52In 2026 And that is where I went wrong The next player Is another running back And that is Kyron Williams And
12:59this one Another one I've kind of been saying Throughout the offseason I was kind of More in than out And then
13:06got off of him As it went along Because Blake Warren Did take on A part of the SPAC field In 2025
13:13Especially over the Second half of the season They basically started To become Even split When it came to Just the carries
13:20For the running backs In the offense Kyron Williams Is still getting Almost all the Pass game usage For the running backs
13:27But Blake Warren Was eating into His carries And Blake Warren Proved to be A very efficient Runner of the football Now
13:34going into 2026 season I was projecting A similar workload To what they had In the second half Of the 2025 season
13:41Where they would Split the rushing work Kyron to get Most of the Receiving work And if that was The case Kyron
13:48would be A okay pick At his cost But not a great pick And we want Great picks When we're picking Players
13:55where Kyron was going We want them To be hits Right Like they're They need to Not only be good They need
14:02to Not only make Be worth Their draft cost They need to go Above and beyond At that point Because so many
14:09High profile players Come from that area Of the draft Where Kyron was going The problem For me here Is that I
14:16was mostly right In fact I was Almost all right With how this Projection would go In that They'd be splitting A
14:23lot of the carries And Kyron Williams Would get the Pass game usage The problem The difference Is that That pass game
14:30usage Is significantly higher Than it has been In the past The Rams have For years Have been One of the lowest
14:37Teams when it comes To throwing to the Running backs And then this year Kyron Williams is Getting a 14 15 60%
14:44target share Week in and week out And that is making A massive difference In his projection We could not count On
14:51that for him In the past Now we can Those receptions Make a giant difference It takes him from Being this You
14:58know High end RB2 Snd just like Rock solid Top 8 running back Week in and week out That's the difference That
15:05those receptions make I did not see that Coming whatsoever Based on history I've been thinking About this one a lot Of
15:12how can I find Like what could I Have seen coming Where this could Happen And it's one where I'm having a
15:19really Tough time seeing How those extra Receptions Those extra targets Were going to come A lot of it has to do
15:26With I think the Entries that the Rams have dealt with On offense And they've needed Someone to step up In the
15:33pass game At times And Kyron has Helped to do that But I think the Biggest thing has Actually been that Matthew
15:40Stafford His arm may not Be quite where It was in the past He's not driving The ball with Quite as much
15:47Force as he has In the past And potentially And I know I'm A little bit Tinfoil hat Theory here But and
15:54Potentially That is making Him want to Check it down Just a little bit More than he Has in the past And
16:01that has Increased Kyron's Projection week To week So very wrong On Kyron I wish I had More because He looks like
16:08He's going to Be a top Fantasy asset Throughout the Rest of the Season That pass Catching is Really doing Wonders for
16:15Him And credit To Kyron Williams I think he's Playing some Of the best Football of His career Right now He's been
16:22Just really Really efficient As a player So far this Season So credit To him I was wrong We got one More
16:29player That player Is Josh Downs And I know A lot of You out there Are in on This with me Josh
16:36Downs Been a favorite Of fantasy Managers for Years Before we Got to The NFL We love Our short Kings Josh Downs
16:43Really incredible College player Pairing up With Drake May Put up a lot Of great Numbers But he's Small Player His size
16:50Is stuck To the slot In the NFL And that Is what Happened For most Of his Career So far Now With
16:57that Said He was Still playing Really really Well whenever He got The opportunity He was An efficient Player We got Great
17:04games Out of Him Whenever he Gets the Opportunity Plays really Well Right We just Keep Wanting Wanting Wanting For this Role
17:11for Him to Increase And this Offseason Everything Was headed In that Direction They get Rid of Michael Pittman They resign Alec
17:18Pierce And then They bring In no one Else of Note At wide Receiver And okay We're looking At this Like well
17:25They basically Have to play Josh Downs At a full Time role At this Point Because they Don't have Anybody To do
17:32it They like Need to So it Looks Like that's Going To happen And then Training Camp And preseason Comes along And
17:39the Colt staff Is saying That yeah He's going To be Playing Outside Like he's Offseason And that Is the Plan For
17:46him To do That And the Season Starts And he Is doing It He got That role He got The role That
17:53everybody Wanted him To get And it Has not Mattered At all Josh Downs Has been a Complete disappointment On his cost
18:00For where we Drafted him The fact that he Got this role And is doing Worse Basically Is awful I think a
18:07Big Thing to Remember here Is that Scaling up a Player's role Doesn't always Come with the Same type Of production Same
18:14type Of efficiency The same Type of Play That is the Case for Josh Downs He has not Improved His fantasy Production
18:21Just because He's playing More Now Some of that I think can Be attributed To Daniel Jones being so Bad Bad and
18:28I Think that Goes into This too Is that Anybody Who was In on Josh Downs Like me Probably Should have Put
18:35more Credence To the Fact that Daniel Jones Is coming Off this Injury He was Never That good To begin With And
18:42he Had this Magical run With the Colts It doesn't Mean it's Going to Continue If Daniel Jones Just goes Back to
18:49Being Daniel Jones That we Know That could Be very Bad for The pass Catchers And that's Happened And obviously That's hurt
18:56Josh Downs So This one Is pretty Frustrating To Sit through You know I have a lot Of Josh Downs Across my
19:03Teams Across my Best Ball Portfolio It I don't Know if There's a Worst Player Take to Have To feel Worse Than
19:10Projecting This Role To Grow For A Player It Actually Happened And it Not Matter At all In fact It's Probably A
19:17Detriment That This Projection Even Was Happening Because It Caused His Cost To Rise I'm Still On of it but as fantasy
19:24gamers i think one of the best things that you can do for yourself is to constantly reflect on your process how
19:31you went wrong how you went right where you can improve things to reconsider keep working keep getting better it's what we
19:38got to do to keep winning these fantasy championships i appreciate all of you out there if you'd like to follow me
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