Nothing Predicts Best Ball Winning Like ADP Value

Davis Mattek considered whether to buy the discount on Alec Pierce or shore up the running back position at a draft decision point. Pierce was presented as a value option but ultimately passed over in favor of addressing running back depth with Rico Dowdle.

Drafted as part of a popular combo strategy with Justin Jefferson to test ADP value accumulation in best ball. Davis Mattek acknowledges this is a very popular pairing in best ball mania but prioritizes projected points and ADP value over uniqueness. Cooper is also drafted as part of Mattek's final roster alongside Hanifan.

Brevin Jordan is a Jaguars tight end projected for only 85 targets by Mike Clay, significantly behind Travis Hunter's 68 targets. Davis Mattek uses this conservative projection as an example of responsible math-based drafting for the Jaguars offense, suggesting that high-level simulators and projection systems will be conservative on the Jaguars rather than taking strong stances on individual players.

Bryan Thomas Jr. is one of the most interesting players in the entire player pool. He was not as bad last year as remembered, with notable games including four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown against Seattle, four for 66 and a touchdown against the Jets, and three for 87 against Indianapolis. In 2024, he posted WR9, WR9, WR4, WR3, and WR12 finishes while playing with Mac Jones, suggesting potential for improvement with better quarterback play or situation clarity. Ranked wide receiver 40 in Mike Clay's target projections with 102 targets; Davis Mattek holds 11% exposure in best ball portfolio because he's cheap and part of a high-upside Jaguars offense with a very high win total.

Davis Mattek identifies Brian Thomas Jr. as a potential chalk pairing with Trevor Lawrence that could dominate weeks 15–16 in best ball. Mattek suggests this combination could be the winning stack to reach the finals, regardless of ownership levels. Mattek also drafted Thomas as part of his best ball wide receiver group alongside Justin Jefferson, Ladd McConkey, Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, Trey Tucker, and Jerry Jeudy.

Was a huge bust in the previous year's Best Ball Mania data, but the source still plans to draft him sometimes despite the historical bust profile, indicating the source believes in his talent despite past performance.

Bryce Young was still on the board at pick 178 and represented significant value in Davis Mattek's best ball draft. Mattek stated 'If Bryce Young does not go, that is who I'm going to take. I'm going to take Bryce Young' and noted the potential for a last-round stack with him. However, Young was selected before Mattek's pick, so Mattek did not ultimately draft him.

Davis Mattek considers Cam Ward as a potential uncommon stack option for a second quarterback pairing with Chigoziem Okonkwo as a back stack. This is presented as a way to differentiate from chalk pairings and create a unique combination in the draft.

Carnell Tate goes ahead of average draft position in this draft scenario, indicating he's being selected earlier than his expected ADP.

Positioned as the Durham Smythe comparable in the Chargers offense under Mike McDaniel, referencing the 2023 Dolphins' fullback role; this suggests limited fantasy production despite being on the roster.

Chris Olave is presented as a superior value alternative to Ladd McConkey at pick 34. Davis Mattek suggests that getting Olave falling five spots after ADP would be better value than taking McConkey at 34, implying Olave's ADP fall represents a buying opportunity.

Christian Watson was drafted at pick 49, ahead of his average draft position, indicating he's being selected earlier than expected.

De'Andre Swift is available at pick 50 and represents a clear ADP value decision point in this draft; the source is comfortable taking him or Treylon Henderson at this juncture.

Selected as a reach at tight end with a week 8 bye (unique on the source's roster). The source argues Schultz is underrated by the market because he is 'not very sexy.' Last year Schultz posted 10.4 points per game with 1.56 yards per route run and a higher target share than Hunter Henry (10.5 PPG, 1.73 YPRR). The source explicitly states 'I think he's a better pick than Hunter Henry' because Schultz is younger, doesn't play with A.J. Brown (unlike Henry), and the Texans offense could improve with C.J. Stroud returning to rookie form. The source has very little Dalton Schultz exposure and is correcting that.

The source mentions Shakir as a player to avoid due to a week seven bye, indicating bye week management is a key draft consideration.

Projected to barely do anything in the Chargers offense under Mike McDaniel, consistent with Davis Mattek's analysis that tertiary players in McDaniel's system are limited despite overall offensive success.

Identified as a closing-line ADP value opportunity, representing potential post-draft ADP movement that could provide value.

Deshaun Watson ranks among the seven worst quarterbacks in the NFL by adjusted EPA per play over the last five years, alongside Bailey Zappe, P.J. Walker, Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance. Davis Mattek's quant model projects 2,000 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns, but Mattek emphasizes 'It's not like it's a good situation. It's not like you want to take Deshaun Watson.' Despite this, Mattek selected Watson as a late-round value at pick 207 in best ball, comparing him favorably to Aaron Rodgers at pick 162 as a closing-line value play, though Mattek acknowledges it was not one of his proudest draft moments.

Presented as a superior value alternative to Ladd McConkey at pick 34; Davis Mattek suggests that getting DeVonta Smith falling five spots after ADP would be better value than taking McConkey at 34, implying Smith's ADP fall represents a buying opportunity in best ball.

Davis Mattek continues to be higher than the market on Eli Stowers, selecting him as his third tight end in best ball. Mattek reasons that the Philadelphia Eagles' aggressive offensive scheme and the fact they drafted Stowers makes it unlikely they would turn the team over to Grant Calcaterra, suggesting Stowers has more upside than his ADP reflects. Mattek's conviction is based on the Eagles' aggressive play style and their draft investment in Stowers.

Davis Mattek expresses skepticism that the Philadelphia Eagles would turn their offense over to Grant Calcaterra after drafting Eli Stowers, suggesting Calcaterra's role is unlikely to expand significantly and that Stowers is the preferred tight end option.

Davis Mattek passed on Hunter Henry in favor of Dalton Schultz, explicitly stating 'That is me saying that I know better than the market.' Henry posted 45 yards per game, 1.73 yards per route run, and 10.5 points per game last year as the number one weapon without A.J. Brown on the team. Mattek argues Schultz is the better pick despite similar production (Schultz: 10.4 PPG, 1.56 YPRR) because Schultz is younger, has a higher target share, runs more routes per game, and doesn't play alongside an elite receiver like Brown. Mattek also notes personal preference: 'Hunter Henry's just not a guy who does anything for me.' The source has significant Drake Maye and Hunter Henry exposure but very little Schultz, indicating a portfolio rebalancing away from Henry.

Historical example of closing-line ADP value in best ball. Had you drafted Jacory Croskey-Merritt early in the process, you could have gotten him in the 16th–18th round, realistically gaining approximately 80 spots of closing-line value by contest close.

Davis Mattek selected Jakobi Meyers as a double stack with the Las Vegas Raiders despite having no real ADP value. Mattek prioritizes the stack structure and team projection over traditional draft capital, viewing the pairing as well-orchestrated for best ball success. Mattek also drafted Meyers as part of his best ball wide receiver group alongside Justin Jefferson, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., Stefon Diggs, Trey Tucker, and Jerry Jeudy.

The source identifies Jaylen Coker as a potential pick option but does not pursue him, instead focusing on Jordan Mason as the biggest faller available at running back.

Drafted at pick 39 with very slight ADP value. Williams is drafted in the third round and paired with McConkey (fourth round) as a common combination in best ball, though Davis Mattek notes this is a bog-standard team construction. Williams is part of a common permutation where he is drafted very close to ADP alongside Trevor Lawrence, Rico Dowdle, and other players. The combinatorial ownership of Javonte and Treylon Henderson will not be as high as the Lawrence–BTJ pairing, making this a less chalk combination. Mattek includes Williams in his final roster alongside Amari Cooper, Treyvion Henderson, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason.

Jerry Jeudy was drafted by Davis Mattek as a wide receiver with a different bye week to enable late-round Cleveland Browns quarterback selection. Last year Jeudy posted 7.1 points per game on 34 routes per game with 6.2 targets per game but only 2.9 receptions per game, indicating a significant catch rate issue. Mattek frames Jeudy's value as dependent on whether Deshaun Watson can improve the Browns' quarterback situation, stating 'the whole thing comes down to can Deshaun Watson be better than the worst quarterback in the NFL? The answer is probably no.' However, Mattek's quant model projects 51 receptions, 700 yards, and three touchdowns at Jeudy's draft price, which Mattek deems 'perfectly fine.' Mattek respects Todd Monken's offensive play-calling history but acknowledges the fundamental quarterback limitation. If the Browns can find anything with Monken, Jeudy becomes 'absolutely massive value.'

The source uses Jordan Addison as a comparison point, arguing that if Stefon Diggs signs with the Chiefs, Diggs would be the superior pick over Addison, implying Addison is overvalued relative to Diggs' potential landing spot value.

Identified as the biggest real-time ADP faller available at the time of selection; Davis Mattek selected Mason to complete the running back position while gaining exposure to a high-upside faller. Mason correlates well with Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson on the roster while providing a unique bye week (different from Hampton, Javonte Henderson, and Rico) to optimize roster construction with five unique bye weeks at running back.

Justin Herbert is projected to be available at pick 82 in this draft scenario, allowing the source to wait on quarterback while prioritizing other positions earlier. This represents solid value for waiting on the position.

Davis Mattek uses Jefferson as an opening-pick example to illustrate closing-line ADP value strategy in best ball, noting that teams with the most projected points and highest ADP value tend to have the best advance rates and high-end finishes. However, at the time of this draft, Jefferson shows no real ADP value, being drafted at or above expected ADP. Mattek pairs Jefferson with Kyler Murray in 4.1% of his teams—notably higher than the 3.5% natural occurrence rate—a combo he accepts due to bye week constraints and roster construction priorities. Jefferson is drafted as part of Mattek's core wide receiver group alongside Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, Trey Tucker, and Jerry Jeudy.

Cited as an example of a high-value ADP faller; Mattek acquired Toney at pick 88, representing the kind of significant ADP discount the source seeks in best ball drafts. This type of discount occurs more frequently on DraftKings than Underdog.

Davis Mattek selected Kyler Murray as quarterback in his draft despite having a high combo rate with Justin Jefferson at 4.1% of his teams (compared to 3.5% natural occurrence). Mattek prioritizes roster construction and bye week management over minimizing combinatorial overlap. Mattek also drafted Murray as one of three quarterbacks in his best ball roster alongside Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson as a late-round dust ball option.

At pick 34, Kyren Williams would be the natural selection but does not go, indicating he is being drafted ahead of ADP value in this best ball scenario.

McConkey is positioned as a year-three breakout candidate with strong correlation to Amari Hampton in the Chargers offense under Mike McDaniel. Davis Mattek projects McConkey for around 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns, not reaching Tyreek Hill's 2023 ceiling of 1,800 yards and 13 touchdowns, but still a meaningful contributor if the McDaniel vision materializes. However, at pick 34, Mattek expresses a neutral stance on McConkey's value, stating he doesn't think McConkey is fine and doesn't have a strong opinion either way—he's neither this year's JSN nor a huge bust. Mattek suggests that getting DeVonta Smith or Chris Olave falling five spots after ADP would be better value than taking McConkey at 34. McConkey is drafted as part of Mattek's final wide receiver group alongside Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, Trey Tucker, and Jerry Jeudy.

Lamar Jackson went ahead of ADP in this draft, indicating he was selected earlier than his expected draft position.

Marvin Jones is part of the Jaguars receiver target distribution with 108 targets projected by Mike Clay. Included in Davis Mattek's conservative approach to the Jaguars offense where no single receiver is significantly favored. The source maintains balanced exposure across the Jaguars receivers rather than concentrating on any one player.

Parker Washington is projected for 108 targets by Mike Clay in the Jaguars receiver distribution. Davis Mattek has capitulated on the Parker Washington narrative and holds 8% exposure. Part of a conservative target distribution where no single Jaguars receiver is significantly favored over others; the source recommends remaining humble on the entire Jaguars situation rather than taking a strong stance on any individual receiver.

Identified as a tertiary player in the Chargers offense under Mike McDaniel; Davis Mattek uses the 2023 Dolphins roster (Tyreek Hill, Waddle, Achane, Mostert) as a comp, noting that tertiary players like Durham Smythe, Berrios, and Cedric Wilson did nothing despite overall offensive success. Additionally, the combo of Johnston at his absolute peak ADP paired with Justin Herbert ahead of his ADP creates super negative expected value in best ball.

The source uses Ricky Pearsall as a comparison point, arguing that if Stefon Diggs signs with the Commanders, Diggs would be the superior pick over Pearsall, implying Pearsall is overvalued relative to Diggs' potential landing spot value.

Davis Mattek selected Rico Dowdle at basically average draft position to address running back depth. Dowdle is part of a common permutation with Trevor Lawrence, and Mattek notes that the combinatorial ownership of Lawrence and Dowdle will be relatively high as part of standard draft patterns. Mattek also drafted Dowdle as part of his best ball running back group alongside Javonte Williams, Treyvion Henderson, and Jordan Mason.

The source mentions Romeo Doubs as a player whose ADP will not be affected by Stefon Diggs' signing, implying Doubs is not a direct competitor for Diggs' value.

Identified as a closing-line ADP value opportunity; Mattek predicts Diggs' average draft position will move from the 130s to the 100s once he signs with a team, making him superior to multiple current receivers depending on landing spot. If Diggs signs with the Commanders, he beats Ricky Pearsall; if Chiefs, he beats Jordan Addison; if Ravens, he beats Courtland Sutton or Xavier Worthy. Mattek believes it is 'effectively an impossibility' for Diggs to stay at his current ADP after signing.

Mattek initially passed on Hockenson in favor of Dalton Schultz to avoid bye week clustering (already missing three players in week 6). Later drafted Hockenson at pick 178, approximately 10 spots after ADP, but Mattek expressed significant doubt: 'I honestly didn't really feel that good about that. I just straight up like think T.J. Hockenson's not a very good pick.' The selection was driven by bye week construction constraints rather than conviction in Hockenson's value.

Travis Hunter is a Jaguars tight end projected for 68 targets, 42 receptions, 496 yards, and 3 touchdowns by Mike Clay. Davis Mattek is willing to take a stance on Hunter specifically because he's cheap; acknowledges Hunter could be a total zero in fantasy but is comfortable with the risk given the value. Mattek holds 14% exposure in best ball portfolio, the highest among Jaguars players, because of the favorable ADP relative to his role in the offense.

Selected as a reach at wide receiver with a week 13 bye (unique on the source's roster), representing a bye-week strategy play. The source is trying to get more exposure to Tucker in best ball.

Davis Mattek selected Trevor Lawrence at pick 80 as part of a stack strategy with Brian Thomas Jr., taking him ahead of ADP to secure the Jaguars quarterback for the stack. Mattek notes that Kyler Murray is the only other viable stack option if Lawrence is missed, making Lawrence the preferred stack quarterback for the Jaguars receivers. Mattek also drafted Lawrence as one of three quarterbacks in his best ball roster alongside Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson as a late-round dust ball option.

The source mentions Wan'Dale Robinson as a player whose ADP will not be affected by Stefon Diggs' signing, implying Robinson is not a direct competitor for Diggs' value.

Zay Jones is projected for 108 targets by Mike Clay as part of the Jaguars receiver distribution. Part of a conservative target allocation where the Jaguars offense is split among multiple receivers. Davis Mattek recommends remaining humble on the entire Jaguars situation and does not take a strong stance on any individual receiver, treating them as relatively equal bets.