BDGE Fantasy Football artwork

12 Sleeper Picks That Ball Knowers Will Make This Year

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

26 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 16, 2026
Published
Thu, July 16, 2026
58
Player insights
38
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh DownsChristian WatsonDallas GoedertJonathon BrooksTucker KraftChuba HubbardDe'Von AchaneEli StoveGreg DulcichJayden ReedJordan LoveKyler MurrayMalik WillisAlec Pierce
Player analysis

Player insights

58

Alec Pierce

NegativeInjury0:06

Multiple medical experts including Dr. Jesse Morse and David Chao are not optimistic about his ankle injury recovery, with Pierce still limping and less optimistic updates emerging.

Insight page

Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection0:01

Caleb Williams finished as QB6 in fantasy last year despite being drafted outside the top 100, exemplifying late-round QB value.

Insight page

Christian Watson

PositiveSleeper0:02

Christian Watson was among the WRs drafted outside the top 100 last year that produced value.

Insight page
PositiveProjection0:08

Christian Watson is the clear top receiver in Green Bay's offense tied to a very good offensive-minded head coach with a friendly scheme, with potential for continued fantasy success after his breakout last year.

Insight page
PositiveRole0:20

Christian Watson is expected to be healthy this year after missing the first half of last season, which should increase passing volume for Jordan Love and the Packers offense.

Insight page

Chuba Hubbard

NegativeRole0:03

Hubbard's contract no longer seems to guarantee him a featured role in Carolina's backfield, with the team showing precedent for new backs overtaking him.

Insight page
NegativeRole0:03

His contract is outdated and no longer signals he'll be a stud in the backfield, with Jonathan Brooks expected to overtake him.

Insight page

Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection0:01

Dak Prescott finished as QB5 in fantasy last year despite being drafted outside the top 100, showing late-round QB value.

Insight page

Dallas Goedert

PositiveSleeper0:02

Dallas Goedert was among the TEs drafted outside the top 100 last year that became legitimate playmakers.

Insight page
PositiveSleeper0:11

Dallas Goedert at pick 116 benefits from Kevin Patullo being out of the Eagles offense, with specifically designed red zone plays that should continue, though a repeat of his career-high touchdown total is not expected.

Insight page
PositiveProjection0:11

With A.J. Brown now on another team, Goedert benefits from a significant spike in involvement when Brown is absent. Historical splits show Goedert averaging almost 15 PPR fantasy points per game, 5.5 receptions, and nearly doubled receiving yards when Brown doesn't play, positioning him as a strong tight end one option.

Insight page

De'Von Achane

PositiveUsage0:22

De'Von Achane will be very involved in Miami's offense and will benefit from dump-offs in an offense expected to trail and pass heavily in the second half.

Insight page
PositiveUsage0:22

Achane will be very involved in the Dolphins offense and will benefit from dump-off passes in the second-half pass-heavy schemes when Miami trails.

Insight page

DeVonta Smith

PositiveRole0:11

DeVonta Smith benefits from the Eagles offense when other top receivers are out, with the removal of Kevin Patullo expected to improve the offense's overall success rate.

Insight page

Drake Maye

PositiveProjection0:01

Drake Maye finished as QB3 in fantasy last year despite being drafted outside the top 100, demonstrating late-round QB value.

Insight page

Eli Stove

NegativeRole0:11

Eli Stowe is not expected to make a huge impact as a rookie, likely serving as a tight end three running packages infrequently in specific areas of the field for the Eagles.

Insight page
NegativeRole0:11

Despite being drafted by Philadelphia, Stowe is not expected to make a huge impact as a rookie and will likely be a tight end three running some set of packages infrequently in specific areas of the field.

Insight page

Greg Dulcich

PositiveSleeper0:22

Greg Dulcich at pick 242 has a real opportunity in Miami assuming Darren Waller doesn't return; he could lead the team in targets or be second at worst in an offense expected to trail and pass heavily.

Insight page
PositiveSleeper0:22

Dulcich is the 242nd player off the board with a clear path to lead or be second on the Dolphins in targets, as the team is expected to trail frequently and run pass-heavy schemes in the second half, potentially catching 60-70 passes despite limited touchdown upside.

Insight page

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

PositiveSleeper0:12

Croskey-Merritt had one of the better rookie rushing seasons by a sixth or seventh-round pick since 2000 (tied for 3rd in rushing TDs with 8, 4th in carries with 175, 5th in rushing yards with 805). With Chris Rodriguez gone and Jayden Daniels healthy, he should lead the team in carries and be the goal-line back in an improved offense, projecting for 13-15 carries per game, 60 total yards, and approximately 8 rushing touchdowns.

Insight page

Jake Ferguson

PositiveSleeper0:02

Jake Ferguson was among the TEs drafted outside the top 100 last year that became legitimate playmakers.

Insight page

Jalen Coker

PositiveSleeper0:21

Jaylen Coker is a good ball player positioned as the WR2 in Carolina at pick 131; from weeks 13-playoffs last year he had higher target share, red zone target share, yards per route run, and first read share than Terrace Marshall.

Insight page

Jared Goff

PositiveProjection0:01

Jared Goff finished as QB8 in fantasy last year despite being drafted outside the top 100, demonstrating late-round QB value.

Insight page

Javonte Williams

PositiveSleeper0:01

Javonte Williams was a smash pick last year when drafted outside the top 100, demonstrating the value available at RB in late rounds.

Insight page

Jayden Reed

PositiveRole0:08

Jayden Reed is easiest to project as the slot and design plays guy, but there's a real chance he ends up being just a slot-only player, which limits his fantasy ceiling despite being arguably the Packers' second-best receiver after Christian Watson.

Insight page
PositiveRole0:20

Jayden Reed is expected to be healthy this year after getting hurt immediately last season, which should increase passing volume for Jordan Love and the Packers offense.

Insight page

Jonathon Brooks

PositiveSleeper0:03

At ADP 101, Brooks is positioned as a potential lead-back candidate in Carolina without needing an injury, as the team let Rico Dowdle leave in free agency and he's the only viable option alongside Chuba Hubbard.

Insight page
PositiveBreakout0:03

He's the only running back outside the top 100 picks who doesn't need an injury to become the bell cow in his offense, with Carolina's strong offensive line supporting his upside.

Insight page
PositiveValue0:04

At pick 101, Brooks is a strong value; the analyst would take him through the 9th round, with the 8th round being the right price and the 7th round getting greedy.

Insight page

Jordan Love

PositiveProjection0:19

Jordan Love is a high upside QB sleeper at pick 128 who had a top-35 all-time fantasy QB season in 2023 with 579 attempts; if the Packers return to 575+ pass attempts with healthy weapons (Watson, Reed, Kraft, Golden), he could have a big year.

Insight page
PositiveProjection0:19

Jordan Love, Green Bay quarterback at pick 128, is being discussed as a sleeper pick, with the source noting he was a phenomenal fantasy quarterback a couple of years ago.

Insight page

Josh Downs

PositiveRole0:05

With Michael Pittman and Adonai Mitchell gone, Josh Downs now has a clear path to play in two-wide receiver sets, which should increase his fantasy production.

Insight page
PositiveProjection0:07

Josh Downs is an 82nd percentile separator overall, 72nd percentile versus zone, and 96th percentile versus press coverage, indicating he can produce regardless of defensive scheme.

Insight page
PositiveBreakout0:07

If Alec Pierce starts at less than 100% or becomes a PUP candidate, Josh Downs can get off to a blazing start with a clear path to target opportunities.

Insight page
PositiveBreakout0:07

Josh Downs has a clear path to opportunity with Michael Pittman now in Pittsburgh and Auden Tate Mitchell traded to New York, positioning him to finally showcase his full three-down skill set as a WR4/5 at ADP 106.

Insight page
PositiveValue0:08

At pick 106 as a wide receiver four or five, Josh Downs is a no-brainer value with a clear path to showcase his full three-down skill set.

Insight page

Justin Herbert

PositiveProjection0:01

Justin Herbert finished as QB10 in fantasy last year despite being drafted outside the top 100, exemplifying late-round QB value.

Insight page

Kalon Barnes

PositiveSleeper0:01

Kalon Barnes was among the RBs drafted outside the top 100 last year that had productive moments throughout the season.

Insight page

Keenan Allen

PositiveSleeper0:02

Keenan Allen was among the WRs drafted outside the top 100 last year that produced value.

Insight page

Kenneth Gainwell

PositiveSleeper0:01

Kenneth Gainwell became a really good player down the stretch last year when drafted outside the top 100, demonstrating late-round RB value.

Insight page

Kyle Pitts

PositiveSleeper0:02

Kyle Pitts was among the TEs drafted outside the top 100 last year that became legitimate playmakers.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

PositiveValue0:15

At pick 119, Kyler Murray represents good value as a mid-round quarterback option. He will beat out J.J. McCarthy for the starting job in Minnesota and now has a good offensive-minded coach in Kevin O'Connell, plus elite weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, along with a good offensive line.

Insight page
PositiveValue0:15

At pick 119, Kyler Murray is a no-brainer QB2 in Superflex leagues and a solid QB2 in one-quarterback leagues, as he's falling to a much better situation in Minnesota with Kevin O'Connell, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson compared to his previous Arizona offense where he was going QB10-11.

Insight page

Malik Willis

PositiveValue0:23

Malik Willis is a very strong QB2/3 pick in superflex leagues given Miami's expected negative game script and heavy passing volume.

Insight page
PositiveValue0:23

Willis is a very strong QB2/3 pick in superflex leagues given the Dolphins' expected negative game script that will lead to frequent passing situations.

Insight page

Matthew Golden

PositiveSleeper0:08

Matthew Golden at ADP 121 (round 10-11) is a strong value target if he's running 80-85% of routes as the starting outside receiver, with potential for a fantasy breakout similar to Christian Watson's last year.

Insight page

Michael Wilson

PositiveSleeper0:02

Michael Wilson was among the WRs drafted outside the top 100 last year that produced value.

Insight page

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

PositiveRole0:06

He's the other starting outside wide receiver in Indianapolis but is expected to run limited routes in two-wide receiver sets, creating opportunity for Josh Downs.

Insight page

Quentin Johnston

PositiveSleeper0:02

Quentin Johnston was among the WRs drafted outside the top 100 last year that produced value.

Insight page

Rico Dowdle

PositiveDepth Chart0:03

Dowdle left Carolina in free agency and is now with Pittsburgh, opening up backfield opportunity for Jonathan Brooks.

Insight page

Terrace Marshall

NegativeValue0:21

Terrace Marshall's fantasy price is too steep this year despite an incredible rookie year; the analyst is not taking him as a top 13-15 fantasy WR in the Bryce Young passing offense.

Insight page

Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection0:01

Trevor Lawrence finished as QB4 in fantasy last year despite being drafted outside the top 100, exemplifying late-round QB value.

Insight page

Tucker Kraft

PositiveSleeper0:02

Tucker Kraft was among the TEs drafted outside the top 100 last year that became legitimate playmakers.

Insight page
PositiveRole0:09

Tucker Kraft is projected to be the number one target in the Green Bay offense.

Insight page
PositiveRole0:20

Tucker Kraft is expected to be healthy this year after missing the second half of last season, which should increase passing volume for Jordan Love and the Packers offense.

Insight page

Wan'Dale Robinson

PositiveSleeper0:02

Wan'Dale Robinson was among the WRs drafted outside the top 100 last year that produced value.

Insight page

Woody Marks

PositiveSleeper0:01

Woody Marks was among the RBs drafted outside the top 100 last year that had productive moments throughout the season.

Insight page

Zachariah Branch

PositiveSleeper0:23

Branch has no competition to be the slot wide receiver in Atlanta behind Drake London and is an explosive, very fast player who could see significant target volume and route running as a rookie.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

255
0:00Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, we're going to cover guys that you need to be all over when your
0:07league starts falling asleep. Listen, I've I've been in many fantasy leagues.
0:12I have drafted many times in in settings where I'm in another person's home. We have live drafts. We're on Yahoo. We're
0:19at the end of the league, right? We're at the end of the draft pick 100, 120 later, and people stop paying attention,
0:25right? This happens in every league, no matter how sharp the league is outside of maybe like buying big money FFPC, high stakes. Like, if any any normal
0:34league, I think by the end of the draft, you and your friends are like probably a little too toasted. Some people want to
0:39get home. Some people got kids. This really happens, right? I'm not just making this up to be a clickbait YouTube title.
0:45Kind of, but this this is something I've experienced many many times in my life where the end of the draft, a lot of
0:50people in your draft stop paying attention. They don't know who to draft.
0:53They don't know half of the players left listed in ADP to take anymore. So, in today's video, we're going to go through
0:5912 players that I think you need to start targeting. These are all picks 100 or later in current ADP that is
1:06available, that is industry-wide consensus averaging all the platforms together on fourforfour.com. I will link that below if you want to go check it
1:13out, absolutely photo free. 12 players to target when your league mates start to fall asleep at the end of drafts.
1:19Quickly going to recap uh a few of the better picks from last year's drafts that were going outside of pick 100 and
1:26crazy, but like the majority of the top 10 quarterbacks last year in fantasy were picks outside of the top 100. You
1:32have Stafford at QB2, Drake Maye at QB3, Trevor Lawrence at QB4, Dak Prescott at QB5, Caleb Williams at QB6. So, you have
1:39QBs two through six all picked outside of the top 100. Obviously, a lot of injuries to the top guys last year, but
1:44the point remains, these kind of things happen often. Jared Goff at QB8, Justin Herbert QB10. So, you have I I don't
1:50know if I did the math correctly, but seven or eight guys that were picked outside of the top 100 that finished as
1:55top 10 quarterbacks. At running back, you have Javonte Williams, Ke'Shawn Dawkins, Woody Marks, Kalon Barnes, Kenneth Gainwell. Not everybody's going to be an automatic slam dunk, obviously,
2:04but these are guys that were, you know, they had their moments throughout the year. Javonte Williams, obviously, a smash pick. Kenneth Gainwell became a
2:09really, really good player for you down the stretch. Wide receivers a little bit more bare, but you have Keenan Allen, Wan'Dale Robinson, Christian Watson,
2:16Quentin Johnston, Michael Wilson. And I tried to keep this list like obviously there are other players that kind of came out of nowhere. The ones that I'm
2:23kind of recapping for you right now. I'm talking more so about guys that were drafted. They were outside of pick 100,
2:28but between pick 100 and like 180. Guys that were ADP of like 250 that were not drafted, picked up on waiver wires. I
2:35tried to kind of keep them off this list a little bit. And then tight ends, Tucker Kraft, Kyle Pitts, Woah, Dallas Goedert, Jake Ferguson. So, those
2:44are some hits from last year. Like these are guys that are legit, legit playmakers that can be put into your lineup at some point or another or for
2:51the entirety of the season. So, it's important to pay attention. So, do that for me in this video. All right? And
2:55we're going to start at the very, very top of the list, literally pick ADP 101.
3:01By the time you see this video, he might be 99 and not qualify, but I'm going to talk about him in every video I can
3:05while the price is still the price of the brick. All right? And that is Jonathan Brooks out in Carolina. Yes, pick 101 right now. I will talk about
3:13him till I am blue in the face until he is on your teams for fantasy football.
3:18Again, this is one of those picks where there's not a ton of logic behind it cuz we haven't seen him play much through
3:24the first two years of his NFL career.
3:26He was a second-round pick, amazing prospect out of Texas. Loved him coming out, such a smooth glider, such a smooth runner. Obviously, had to run out of
3:34multiple ACL tears, but I do think you let Rico Dowdle go in free agency. He's now in Pittsburgh and it is just
3:40Jonathan Brooks and it is just Chuba Hubbard. They've already shown the precedent of a guy coming in and playing really well to the point that he can
3:47overtake Chuba Hubbard. No questions asked about it. That contract from Chuba seems like it's far in the past, man. It doesn't seem like something we can
3:54really hold on to that points us in the direction of Chuba being, you know, a stud in the backfield anymore. So,
3:59Brooks right now, do I think it starts as a committee? Absolutely. Do I think he works his way up to a point where he
4:04is eventually the lead guy halfway through the season? I guess the way to look at Jonathan Brooks is he's really the only player, I think, outside of the
4:11top 100 picks as a running back that doesn't need an injury to become the bell cow in his offense. Every other
4:17player that people will tell you to take outside of the top 100 whether it's, you know, the Kyle Manonguy's or the the
4:22Marshaun Lloyds or the Blake Corum if he's I don't even think he's outside of the top 100, but you get the point. Any
4:27of those guys, like they're not taking their backfield outright, where I think Jonathan Brooks is one of the few guys left later in drafts that can absolutely
4:34do that on his respective team. The offensive line in Carolina is very, very good, too. Um I think that's one of the
4:39underrated aspects of this team overall.
4:42So, I think people are going to talk up Jonathan Brooks, myself included, until he continues to move up draft boards until he's in a spot where I'm
4:49uncomfortable taking him, and that would probably be around like the seven seventh round. Like 10th round, love it.
4:55Ninth round, still taking Jonathan Brooks. Eighth round is where you get to like, okay, this is probably the right price here. Seventh, getting a little
5:01bit greedy. But Jonathan Brooks right now, pick 101, you love to see it. Pick 106, five picks later, Josh Downs. All
5:08right? And I would say like the biggest question mark with Josh Downs in Indy this year is whether or not we'd
5:13actually see him ever play in two-wide receiver sets. And now we have Michael Pittman gone. We have Adonai Mitchell gone, right? So, the same argument that
5:22you could make for a Matthew Golden in Green Bay with Romeo Doubs, now Octavius Wicks gone, it's like, of course he's
5:27going to play in wide receiver two sets or two-wide receiver sets. We We'll talk about Golden in a second. I still think
5:32there's the question mark of Josh Downs, cuz once a coach kind of gets in in their own head of like, this is what
5:36this guy is used for, he is a slot only receiver, they will kind of force anybody out on the outside, on the
5:42exterior for this. And that becomes a problem because there have been, you know, quite a few, I guess, studies done in the fantasy industry recently over
5:51the fact that when there are fewer wide receivers on the field, those specific wide receivers, even if there are more pass catchers still, like even if two
5:57tight ends are running routes, even if running backs are running routes, wide receivers see a big uptick in fantasy point production. So, it's important
6:04that even if he's running the same amount of routes as he would in three wide receiver sets than two wide receiver sets, that he is on the field
6:10for those, if if that makes sense at all. It makes sense in my head.
6:12Hopefully, you're picking up what I'm putting down here. So, the optimism for Josh Downs comes from a multitude of angles. One, it's like, man, you really
6:20got to squint to make a case for someone playing in two wide receiver sets over him. Right now, they have Nick
6:26Westbrook-Ikhine as like the other starting outside wide receiver, and he does kind of feel like someone who's going to piss us off and be like, yeah,
6:33Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's running [ __ ] routes in two wide receiver sets, but I mean, like, come on. But, we have heard
6:39a little bit of chatter out of Indianapolis, where Shane Steichen's come out and said that we will be using Josh Downs more in two wide receiver
6:46sets, which is great. And then we look at Alec Pierce and his ankle injury and and the recovery from that, which is not
6:52very optimistic from most of the doctors that I follow. I had Dr. Jesse Morse on the channel a couple weeks ago. He's not
6:57optimistic about Alec Pierce. You have David Chao, Pro Football Doc. Alec Pierce's ankle has me more worried than Daniel Jones' Achilles right now.
7:04Position matters. Pierce is still limping, and we're hearing less optimistic updates. The worry meter's going up. That was back midway through
7:10June, so about a month ago. So, it it feels like most things are breaking right to allow us to to get Josh Downs
7:16forced onto the field in all wide receiver sets. And he's an incredible separator, as, you know, the numbers from RP, Matt Harmon's RP, kind of bear
7:25this year in and year out. 82nd percentile man separator, 72nd versus zone, 96th versus press. Like, he's a great separator, no matter the coverage
7:33against him, which usually lends itself to saying, hey, if you do play me on the exterior, I'm going to be fine. I'm
7:39going to eat cuz I can eat these corners up, regardless of how they're playing me. So, if Pierce starts at less than
7:44100%, if Pierce is a pup candidate, like Josh Downs can can get off to a blazing start, cuz again, a lot of the the
7:50target earners in Indianapolis, or the guys that kind of like get mixed in to ruin the target share distribution, Michael Pittman now in Pittsburgh, Auden
7:58Tate Mitchell, you know, traded last year is in New York. So, I it's just a very clear path to Josh Downs finally
8:03getting the opportunity that we want to see him get in order to showcase his full three-down skill set. So, Josh Downs at 106, you get him as your wide
8:11receiver four or five, I think is a no brainer. And then moving to that Green Bay duo of wide receivers, I will say
8:18both Jayden Reed, who's pick 108, and Matthew Golden at pick 121 are interesting, right? You have by all accounts Christian Watson's going to be
8:26the one there. And then there's going to be some sort of distribution or variety of who ends up playing the wide receiver
8:32two, I think. This is from a beat reporter out there in Green Bay. On Packers wide receiver room from Packers Insider Andy Herman, who is the beat
8:39reporter for Green Bay, clear top three with Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jayden Reed. Still some level of rotation that will happen at wide
8:45receiver with others mixing in. Jayden Reed easiest project as the slot and design plays guy. So, you get rid of Dobbs, you get rid of Dontayvion Wicks,
8:53objectively great for everybody that, you know, does run routes in this offense. Moves everybody up the pecking order. I still don't think it makes it
9:00as clear as we want it to be for fantasy. I think they drafted Matthew Golden last year to be a starting
9:05outside wide receiver. I almost think what they got out of Christian Watson they were expecting to get out of Matthew Golden, but you don't draft a
9:12guy in the first round to be like a slot only guy. So, I do think Jayden Reed, there's a real chance that he ends up
9:18being just a slot guy, unfortunately.
9:20But when he's on the field, I would argue he is the best, maybe a slight tick behind Christian Watson as the the
9:27the the best or the second best wide receiver while running routes out there.
9:30Tucker Kraft I still think will be the number one target in this offense. But if Matthew Golden ends up being the dude
9:35who is starting outside of Christian Watson, I think you can just take a step back and say to yourself, all right, we
9:41have a first-round wide receiver tied to a good offense, tied to a very good offensive-minded head coach with a really, really friendly scheme, and he's
9:48going to run, you know, 75, 80, 85% of the routes here. So, again, while I think it's an easy case to make that
9:54Jayden Reed is probably the Packers' best, at worst, second-best wide receiver, it's a bit tough to see him getting there if he's not actually
10:01playing two wide receiver sets, and it doesn't really sound like he's going to.
10:04This is one of those situations that I think, and rightfully, is going to be like insanely overanalyzed when preseason games start, and we have like
10:11a three-snap sample size of a two-wide receiver set and a three-wide receiver set. So, that's like what we'll have to keep our eye on to see, you know, how
10:18those things kind of work out here. But, overall, if we're getting into round 10, round 11, where Matthew Golden's ADP is
10:25currently right now, he's someone I will absolutely take a shot on because if he's out there running 80, 85% of the
10:30routes in this type of offense, you're going to kind of back way, back door your way into like a decent fantasy
10:36season. So, I do think like Christian Watson, prior to last year, there were those couple years in a row after his
10:41rookie year where him and Jordan Love just could not get on the same page, and it was just like inches away here,
10:45inches away there from having big fantasy explosion days. And that was the case with Matthew Golden a lot last year. They were, you know, a couple
10:52balls away, a couple inches away from him having some massive games. And then we saw it click right for Christian Watson last year. The same thing can
10:59kind of happen for Matthew Golden, and then you're looking at him in a completely different perspective. So, moving down the list, we have Dallas
11:05Goedert, first tight end on the list here, pick 116.
11:09Uh I mean, listen, when I look at Dallas Goedert, again, I've made the case for DeVonta Smith, I've made the case for
11:13A.J. Brown. It's like when one of those guys is out, the other guys end up eating in this offense. I think getting
11:18Kevin Patullo out of there is going to be a world of difference to the offense's success rate for Philadelphia.
11:24And I know they drafted Eli Stowe as well, but like, from everything I'm seeing out of camp, I I'm not expecting
11:29him to make a huge impact as a rookie.
11:31Uh he might be like the tight end three here that runs some set of packages infrequently in specific areas of the
11:38field. I thought Dallas Goedert, you know, obviously coming off of a career high in touchdowns, not expecting him to repeat that, but I do think they had a
11:45lot of plays that were like specifically designed for Dallas Goedert within the 10 and within the 5-yard line, and I wouldn't see a reason why they wouldn't
11:51try to run that back. And you look at the splits when A.J. Brown is playing versus when A.J. Brown is not playing
11:56over the last couple of years, Dallas Goedert has a really, really big spike in just overall involvement that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.
12:04Almost 15 PPR fantasy points per game, five and a half receptions, target spike by about a point and a half, and then
12:10the receiving yards almost double. Now, obviously, you know, they draft Mecole Hardman who's going to be pretty heavily utilized in the slot, which is where
12:16Goedert operates as well. So, I don't think it's just like tit for tat, cool, A.J. Brown is gone, Dallas Goedert is
12:20going to pace out to 1,200 yards and 90 catches. No, but I do think Dallas Goedert who just had a career high
12:26finish in fantasy last year now gets the number one option in his offense moved to another team. I don't know, I just
12:33feel like Dallas Goedert feels like a really, really nice tight end one option for you. So, moving off of Dallas Goedert, a couple picks behind him, we
12:40have Jacquory Croskey-Merritt out in Washington. He's pick 118. Now, I tweeted this out last week. I said, "I'm not a JCM stan." I actually did like him
12:48a lot last year. So, if you watched my dynasty content going into last year, you probably owned a lot of JCM. But, I
12:54was saying I'm surprised he's being written off so quickly. Like, I've never seen this much love around Rachaad White. Like, everybody all of a sudden
13:02just loves Rachaad White. Gets signed to a one-year, $2 million deal by Washington. And I get it, he's the most experienced, he has the most three-down
13:09ability, he's a very athletic running back. But, JCM just had one of the better rookie rushing seasons all time by a sixth or seventh-round pick. So,
13:18since 2000, his ranks among sixth or seventh-round rookie running backs, tied for the third most rushing touchdowns, eight. Fourth in carries, 175. Fifth in
13:27rushing yards, 805. Sixth in half PPR points with 139.8.
13:33Now, Chris Rodriguez is gone. Jerome Ford is on a $1.4 million deal, so I know he was added to the backfield, 400k
13:40guaranteed, so he could absolutely get cut. Keaontay Ingram is a nearly 24-year-old sixth-round pick.
13:45Ironically, nearly the same as, you know, JCM's outlook, but he already proved that he could play on an NFL field. So, my argument for JCM is pretty
13:54much like he was good last year in a situation that was objectively terrible, especially with the injuries to Jayden Daniels. And with Jayden Daniels under
14:04center, I think JCM's going to lead the team in carries. Will he catch a ton of passes? No. But, Jayden Daniels as a
14:10rookie made this Washington team a top-five scoring team in the NFL. Will they be that in 2026? The odds are stacked against it, for sure. But, if
14:20they can get back to some sort of similarity to what they were in 2024, you're looking at a very good offense
14:26with a mobile quarterback that spaces things out for the running back. I don't really see a reason why Jacquory [clears throat] Crosby-Merritt
14:33can't be a dude where it's like, all right, you know, he probably gets 13 to 15 carries a game, is probably going to
14:39finish with 60 total yards a game, something in that range, and then scoring a rushing touchdown cuz he's probably going to be the goal-line back.
14:45He'll be the early-down guy in an offense that we expect to be a lot better than they were last year, and
14:49score a touchdown every other game, right? Finish again with eight rushing touchdowns, something like that. So, I just like JCM. I thought he was better
14:55than he's given credit for last year. Am I obsessed with his upside? No. Will he ever be a bellcow? Probably not, but it
15:01is what it is. And then, one pick behind him, we've got the first quarterback on this list, and there are a lot of
15:06quarterbacks I I I like on this list, and I think you can make an argument for like any of the quarterbacks ranked from
15:10like QB 13 to like 20 as good picks after pick 100. But, Kyler Murray at pick 119 feels like one of the more
15:17obvious, like, he's not someone that I can depend on as my QB 1. I'm not going out there and drafting him and saying
15:22like, yeah, I think I'm getting top five, top eight production. There will be given weeks where he does, obviously.
15:27He signs in Minnesota, right? And he's without a doubt going to end up beating J.J. McCarthy out for the starting job.
15:32And now you get to attach him with finally, probably for the first time in his life, a good offensive-minded coach, not someone who's draining from him. You
15:39got Justin Jefferson, obviously, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson. You've got a good offensive line, and Kevin O'Connell will make the world of difference for a
15:45guy like Kyler Murray. I'm still very hesitant to say that Kyler Murray is a good NFL quarterback. I think whenever he steps on the field, he's probably the
15:52best athlete on the field, which is good, but I think that can only take you so far. I think he still has a lot of
15:58trouble seeing over the middle of the field, but I think if you're in Superflex leagues where that's I I play the majority of my redraft leagues in
16:05Superflex leagues, two-quarterback leagues, Kyler Murray feels like the no-brainer, the easiest QB2 pick ever.
16:11And I don't mind if you take him as your QB2 in one-quarterback leagues, cuz he's a dude that's going to have a ceiling on
16:16a weekly basis. He will have games with 25, 27, 28 points for sure because of that rushing, but he also does have a
16:22floor because of the offensive system and because of the rushing ability. So, Kyler's been written written off for dead. I was not a guy who was like super
16:29in on him last year. He was getting picked around QB10, 11, and that felt terrible in that Arizona offense. Kind of faded him last year, but at this
16:35price now, he's falling down in a much better situation. Give me a lot of Kyler as a QB2 here. Five picks behind Kyler
16:42Murray. And before we do get to this first rookie on this list here, I do want to say all of my rankings, our
16:48draft guide, everything fantasy that we've productized is available on bdge.co within the fantasy membership, all right? That is just a monthly membership
16:57that encapsulates every tool, all the information that we put into a product is available just in one simple place, bdge.co fantasy membership. You can get
17:06it for very, very, very, very, very cheap, though, if you are a new user on BetMGM. So, if you go to their app, you
17:12go to their website, and you sign up with a new account, you use code BDGE when you deposit $10 or more, place any
17:18slip on there, and as soon as you do, they're going to send you an in-app code in their app with a promo code to use on
17:24our website, which will get you the entire membership on our website for free for the next 3 months. So, that will take you pretty deep into the
17:31fantasy season as well. That's the cheapest way to get it, just $10 if you're a new user on the site. All
17:37right, let's move to our first rookie. I think it's our first rookie. I might just be talking in lines to you guys,
17:41but I think it's our first rookie, Casey Conceicao, the first-round pick for the Cleveland Browns. He's going off the board at pick 124. Overall, Casey
17:50Conceicao is just a phenomenal separator. He is a great route runner.
17:55He has the first-round draft capital, and of course, the situation is terrifying. You have Cleveland, their passing offense inspires very, very
18:02little confidence. It's going to be either Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, but I also think it's important to leave a little bit of room
18:08for unknown. Like, we don't know what Shedeur Sanders is as a quarterback. It is easy to just say like, "Oh, he
18:13stinks. He's not going to be good. This Cleveland Browns passing game's going to suck." But, I really like Todd Monken.
18:17Todd Monken's coming over from Baltimore. He is now their head coach.
18:20So, they will have a an exciting scheme, and I've heard a lot of comparisons of Casey Conceicao playing the Zay Flowers
18:26role in this offense. You Cleveland went, you know, they went out and drafted Casey Conceicao in the first round. They have a very good pass
18:32catcher at tight end in Harold Fannin.
18:33And then right after Casey Conceicao, they also drafted Denzel Boston to be like a pure X receiver on the outside to
18:40take attention away over there. So, quickly, they've kind of revamped the weapons here. Now, you have the [ __ ] cone of Jerry Jeudy as the third
18:47receiver in this offense. So, to me, Casey Conceicao, just great separator.
18:51You look at all these numbers from from RP. You have great capital. You have kind of an unknown pecking order for the
18:57wide receivers out here in Cleveland.
18:58You have an unknown quarterback in Shedeur Sanders here. And then I really, really like the Todd Monken system coming in and and the comparisons of
19:06Casey Conceicao playing the Zay Flowers role here. So, if he can take the Zay a role and run with it, I think you're
19:12going to be looking at a nice little high upside value in Mr. Casey Conception. Just like, what a name, too.
19:17I just want that guy on my team, you know? After Casey, we have another quarterback on the list, and that is
19:21Jordan Love, Green Bay quarterback, and he is pick 128. You know, we're a couple of years removed from Jordan Love being
19:27a phenomenal fantasy quarterback. We actually did a trivia game recently where we had to name the top, I think it was 35 fantasy quarterback seasons of
19:36all time, and Jordan Love's 2023 was inside that top 35. So, uh Jordan Love had 579 attempts that year. So, the
19:45argument would have to be, okay, do they stop going so run heavy? And I think, you know, they let Emmanuel Wilson go.
19:51You've got all the off-field stuff with Josh Jacobs. Whether or not there's any charges that end up coming from it, I
19:56don't know. You do have Josh Jacobs wearing down a little bit. The only guy behind him is MarShawn Lloyd, who at
20:01this point making Jonathan Brooks look like a healthy player. So, I I just look back to a couple years ago. I think
20:07anyone who watches Jordan Love knows he's a high upside quarterback. He loves to sling the ball downfield, and he goes through these spurts where he looks like
20:12a top-five quarterback in the NFL. So, if we can get back to Jordan Love being a dude who throws the ball 575 times
20:18with the combination of the weapons that they have here in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden, I think we're going to see a
20:24really, really big year. I do think, you know, there's there's no doubt about it, LaFleur probably wants to lean on the
20:29run more than other coordinators or more than other, you know, guys who do run the offense for their team. But, I also
20:36think last year he was like forced to, and he has been forced to the last couple of years because Jayden Reed got
20:40hurt immediately, right? As soon as the season started. You had Christian Watson didn't come back until halfway through the year. Then, Tucker Kraft did miss
20:46the second half of the year. So, you have all these like passing options and passing weapons who are, you know, hopefully coming into this year healthy
20:53that just got hurt immediately last year or missed huge chunks of the season. So, it was hard to trust that room. It was
20:59hard to go high passing volume on a week-by-week basis, and I don't think they really want to play to that much of
21:04a skewed offensive system. So, after Jordan Love, we've got a player three picks behind him, Jaylen Coker, wide receiver in Carolina. I would just think
21:14Jaylen Coker is a good ball player. He gets his extension with Carolina, and I think he's just very obviously going to
21:19be the wide receiver two behind Terrace Marshall there. Now, I'm not a huge fan of Terrace Marshall's fantasy price this year. He's not a dude that I'm taking as
21:28like a top 15, top 14, 13 fantasy wide receiver despite an incredible rookie year, and I think he's an awesome player. But that price is like a little
21:36bit too steep for me to invest into this passing offense with Bryce Young, but I do think when you look at the offense,
21:41it's Terrace Marshall and it's Jaylen Coker. They don't have another wide receiver or tight end of consequence.
21:46And I think when Jaylen Coker finally got onto the field last year, he was like probably more involved than people realize. From weeks 13 through the
21:53playoffs for Carolina last year, Coker had a higher target share overall, a higher red zone target share, a higher yards per route run rate than Terrace
22:01Marshall, and a higher first read share from Bryce Young. And I think that might make sense a little bit when you look at
22:09Bryce Young and his stature. It's just very possible being that small, you just feel more comfortable with guys running over the middle of the field rather than
22:17running outside on the boundaries and getting the ball out quickly. And that's a little bit of like a tin foil hat, you
22:23know, conspiracy theory there, but I do think it kind of makes sense. So, I really like Jaylen Coker at this price.
22:28I think he's just good ball player.
22:30Moving about a hundred picks later is another tight end who I'm not sold as a good ball player by any means, but I
22:36like the opportunity here in Miami for Greg Dulcich. He is the 242nd player off the board. So, Dulcich is just like the
22:44opportunity there assuming they don't bring Darren Waller back, which I don't think is happening. I think there's a real chance that Dulcich leads this team
22:52in targets. I think Achane will obviously be very, very involved, and I think at worst Dulcich will probably be second on the team in targets. This is
22:59an offense that's expected to trail a ton. I could see them almost being like the Arizona of last year where it's like
23:06you go into every second half down 14 points and the entire play scheme, the entire play call for quarters three and
23:13four are just passes over and over and over again, which will lead to a lot of dump-offs for Achane, it'll lead to a
23:18lot of rushing attempts for Malik Willis who I think is also a very, very strong QB2/3 pick in superflex leagues. Uh but
23:25Greg Dulcich, I could see a guy just, you know, he can catch 60-70 passes, probably won't score a ton of touchdowns, but like I think the volume
23:31will end up being there and a guy who's not competing with any other tight ends for targets. They have a completely wide
23:36open weapon group. Obviously Jaylen Waddle's not there anymore, Tyreek Hill's not there anymore. They drafted a bunch of rookies, some of them hurt
23:41going into the year already. So like I just don't know who's going to catch passes here in Miami and Dulcich just is
23:46lined up to be a guy that is in line for a bunch of targets. And then to wrap up this video, we've got two rookie slot
23:53wide receivers, both of whom very similar draft capital, both of whom going into offenses who have a clear wide receiver one, but no real wide
24:02receiver two behind them. That is Zachariah Branch out of Georgia going to the Atlanta Falcons and that is Antoine Wesley Williams out of Clemson going to
24:11Washington. Zachariah Branch, I don't know that he has any competition to be the slot wide receiver here in Atlanta.
24:18There's nobody else taking targets behind Drake London in the receiver group there. He is an explosive player, he's very, very fast, could see Tua
24:25really loving him and and kind of shoving targets down his throat. So big fan of taking a chance on Zachariah Branch just because I think he's going
24:31to he's going to run a ton of routes off the rip. And then you have Antoine Wesley Williams out there in Washington.
24:36I also like Chiggy. I think you should put him on this list as well if you're looking for elite round tight end who
24:41would go much higher than Greg Dulcich, but if you end up fading the position, Chiggy's in a spot now signing with
24:46Washington getting the contract where behind Terry McLaurin you have just unproven guy after unproven guy. Do they bring in a second wide receiver, one of
24:53the veterans, whether Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen? Very possibly and that would kind of ruin this take overall. I do also think that there's a world where
25:01Antonio Williams is the every down slot guy, and they run a ton of three wide receiver sets here. And I think both
25:07Branch and Antonio Williams can go out there and catch, you know, 60 plus passes as a rookie. And, you know, you're getting them that those guys are
25:14undrafted right now. No one's really taking them in redraft leagues, but I do think that the path to them getting opportunity is is about as clear as like
25:21almost any wide receiver two three rookie in this draft class right now.
25:25So, I will wrap it up there. 12 players to draft when your league mates start to fall asleep at the end of your draft.
25:32Picks 100 or later, everybody on this list, the ADP will be listed down below.
25:37Again, you can get all of our rankings, all that good stuff on bdge.co, the fantasy membership, cheapest way to get it. Head over to MGM if you are a new
25:44user, use code bdge when you sign up, play any slip $10 or more, and they will hit you with a code that will get you
25:50access to our site for free for the next three months. All right? I love you all.
25:55Hit the button that looks like this if you enjoyed the video. Subscribe to the channel if you are new, and I will see
26:00you whenever I see you.

More episodes from BDGE Fantasy Football

6