0:00Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, we are going game by game through every one of the 16 NFL games
0:07this weekend and talking about running backs. All right, this is the fantasy outlook where we are ranking and tearing every single fantasy relevant running
0:15back in every single game as starts, as sits, as flexes, as flops, whatever you want to categorize them as. We'll be
0:21talking about injuries and snap counts and things that you need to know on the offensive line, whatever, whatever. You guys know the deal. We do this with
0:28running backs every Wednesday. We do this with wide receivers every Thursday.
0:31So, if you do enjoy the video and you want the wide receiver version, make sure you are subscribed to thy channel.
0:38Let's get into it. All right, kicking things off with the most Thursday night football game of all time. We've got Pittsburgh at Cleveland. This is a 38
0:45and 1/2 point total. That is a rare sight in today's NFL. Uh the Steelers are favored by 2 and 1/2 points in the
0:51dog pound. First running back we got to look at is Jaylen Warren of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, if we look at
0:55the practice reports here, we do have double DNPs starting off the week for Rico Dowdle. It does look like he's dealing with an actual turf toe. You
1:02know, definitely leaning towards him not playing. Never say never. If he gets a limited in on Wednesday, today, you'll see practice reports a little bit later.
1:09I am filming this around 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday, so I don't have any Wednesday practice reports for you guys, unfortunately. Uh but I want to get this
1:16out as early as possible for you. Yeah, if he gets in a limited today, possibly plays on Thursday. This does seem like
1:22he is definitely trending the wrong way here. So, with him out, Jaylen Warren obviously exploded last week. This is just one of those backfields when you
1:30condense it, they combine for a ton of touches, you know, when it's them two, and then they really just give the one
1:37guy all of them when the other one is absent. So, Warren for me, I mean, he was awesome last week. I mean, he was
1:42already great in fantasy and then left a ton of points on the field for penalties and tripping over himself and whatever.
1:48He actually could have been like maybe the top running back on the slate last week, but he's going right into a must
1:53start category assuming Rico Dowdle is out. On the flip side, Quez Watkins still projected per Vegas for 69 total yards and I get it. You know, he got up
2:03to like 70 ish. He had one of his better games of the week last week against a pretty forgiving Carolina run defense.
2:09That being said though, Judkins is just kind of a useless 15 touches unfortunately.
2:14You know, the Steelers run defense has not been great as you could see they're bottom 12 in terms of like everything
2:20allowed here. Fantasy points to the running back, EPA per rush, success rate per rush, explosive rate per rush here.
2:25So, it is on paper a good match up for Judkins. I just don't know if a good match up for Judkins actually exists in
2:32reality in the real world. So, he's going to be a shaky flex cuz he has shown a little bit of a incapability to
2:39put up more than like 10 PPR points for you unfortunately. No one else in this game we would like to play. We've got a
2:47London game for the first time. Not the first international game, but the first Sunday Sunday Sunday morning game. 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. We've got Indy
2:55playing against the Washington Commanders. Of course, JT is going straight into the mustard category. The Colts are three and a half point
3:01favorites with a 47 and a half point over under. So, they're projecting a decent amount of points. It's actually a very surprising number. It's the first
3:08time I'm seeing this right now. 47 and a half points. So, I I think that's probably more of a discussion about their defense than
3:14it is anything else on both sides of the ball cuz neither of them have been great. So, JT obviously goes in here.
3:20The other side of the ball is actually really interesting with Washington. We obviously have no Jayden Daniels. Marcus Mariota is going to be a quarterback.
3:26But, Rashad White got hurt in their [clears throat] week three game and we don't have practice reports for them yet, but I saw a tweet earlier
3:34today that says Rashad White is not expected to practice on Wednesday. And that would obviously open up a big workload for Ke'Shawn Vaughn who was
3:42a 20 touch guy last week. He also could have had a much bigger day. He had like a 50 ish yard touchdown run called back.
3:49And this is a good match up against Indy.
3:51Sixth most fantasy points allowed to the running back position. You could just see a lot of green. So, Second most EPA
3:56per rush allowed, third highest success rate allowed to opponents that run the ball against them. So, if Rashaad White is out, uh Jacquory Coastly Mims-Patrick
4:05is kind of bordering on dove flex and feels good category. Well, I obviously have to see if Rashaad White Wednesday reports are not like the end-all, be-all
4:13by any means. He can be DNP today and then get an unlimited Thursday, unlimited Friday, and be good to go. If
4:19that ends up being the case, they would both fall into the shaky flex category for me here. But, for right now, with
4:24Rashaad White leaving Sunday's game and uh him starting off the week with a DNP, I'm going to leave it as just JCM as the
4:31sole back for Washington. Obviously, Ke'Shawn Allen will probably get a little bit more run, but you are not starting him. He will be in the rankings
4:37though. And as always, you know, throughout these videos, I kind of give you guys the uh prognosis that these are not exact rankings. Like, when I drop JT
4:44into the must-start below Jaylen Warren, it's just the organization of how I'm going through the game. like to talk through more of like the the the game
4:52outlook and how I'm thinking about these players. The exact rankings will always be up on the actual site, bdge.co, if you are a fantasy member on the site,
5:03all right? So, if you're looking for flex, if you're looking for start-sit tools, whatever, those are always going to be up there. You will have access to
5:08all of these defensive matchup analytics, all of the Vegas props and totals and things like that. Those are for the fantasy members. Cheapest way to
5:15get it, you can now get it for the rest of the season if you are a new user on our partner website, BetMGM. So, if you
5:21go to their app or their website and you use code BDGE when you sign up, play any slip on there of $10 or more, and
5:28they're going to give you a promo code in their app to use on our website that gets you 3 months free of our entire
5:33website, all the fantasy tools, all the trivia games and stuff that you can play online with your friends, etc., for 3
5:39months. So, basically, the rest of the fantasy season. Let us move on to the 1:00 slate. So, we've got New England at
5:44Buffalo here. Buffalo 6 and 1/2 point favorites. They are at home 48 and a half point total in this one. New
5:50England has looked like an absolute mess. You know, James Cook's obviously getting vulture by Josh Allen, but like he's still putting up big fantasy days.
5:56And listen, if they start getting tackled at like the five or four or three yard line instead of the one yard
6:00line, we're going to have some major boom weeks for James Cook. He's unfortunately not getting as much pass catching work as we would have liked to
6:06have seen. And now that Ty Johnson is back on the field, uh doesn't look like that's really going to happen.
6:11Unfortunately, like his lines at one and a half receptions, six and a half receiving yards. That's really gross.
6:16But James Cook's obviously awesome on the ground and you just want to attach yourself to this type of offense. On the
6:21flip side, we did see like our first full game it felt like where it's a real Traveon and Rhamondre Stevenson split
6:27where it's like Rhamondre didn't fumble early on, so Traveon was like the guy for the rest of the game. And it ended
6:32up being pretty even. Rhamondre ended up with more snaps, but I do think this is just a pure split across the board. It's
6:39a good defense to go against in terms of like friendly match-up for running backs with Buffalo as you could see a lot of
6:44green across the board there. But I feel pretty confident in saying this will just continue to be almost a a direct
6:5050/50 split. So for Traveon, I think you need a big explosive play. He's not getting a lot of pass catching work.
6:57With Rhamondre, you obviously need touchdown scores for them to come through. So if I have both of them uh on my team, I'm looking at them as cheeky
7:04flexes. Like you can start them obviously, but you're not going to feel great about them. And I have a guy like
7:08Jacquizz Rodgers and Moret, assuming Rashad White is out, over dudes like that, especially with how shaky their offensive line looks, the lack of
7:16explosive plays, just the lack of Drake May doing anything that he did last year.
7:21Next up, we've got Tennessee at Baltimore. Revenge game for D. Henry.
7:24Minus 245 anytime touchdown, of course he goes right into the must start category. On the flip side of things, this is one you're going to have to keep
7:31an eye out for in terms of practice reports. So Tajae Spears had a little bit of an ankle injury going into the
7:36game, ended up re-aggravating it. He was kind of in and out of the game. So we'll have to see if he ends up missing this
7:42week. Obviously, a lot of the workload's going to be consolidated to Tony Pollard. Rico Singleton becomes an interesting like stash before the week.
7:50Maybe they get him a few touches. He has a big run or something like that and opens the eyes of the coaching staff.
7:54But, most of the work would end up being consolidated to a guy like Tony Pollard.
7:57Do I love that? Does he have a super high ceiling? Probably not, but his floor gets incredibly solidified here uh in a game where, you know, he might get
8:07some pass-catching work. They're 11 and 1/2 point underdogs here. So, if I have Tony Pollard and Tajae Spears does not play, I actually think I would probably
8:14prefer him to a lot of these guys just because he'll get a 90% opportunity share. If Tajae Spears does end up
8:19playing and the ankle's fine, it was just like a small tweak or something like that and he gets limited in throughout the remainder of the week,
8:25Tony Pollard's going to go into like the shaky flex category at best. He's shown like zero pop, juice, or ceiling up to
8:31this point in the fantasy season. Next up, we got the Jets at the Chicago Bears here. Uh this is a 3 and 1/2 point
8:39favored game for the Chicago Bears. So, they are a a favorite here. 43 and 1/2 point total. On the Jets side of things,
8:45we're going to be without Breece Hall for a little bit, which means Braelon Allen is going to be the guy in this
8:50backfield. And he's going to go into the feels good category for me. See if we got any proper refreshes. Nothing for
8:56Braelon. I think they're kind of maybe waiting to see some coach speak between him and Isaiah Davis or whatever. Uh Tony Pollard up to 57 total yards, not
9:05great. Ka'Quaun Mosley-Matchett plus 100 anytime touchdown. So, a legit coin flip but Braelon Allen uh he is, you know, with a great matchup here and he's going
9:13to get the majority of work. That's what's been the case so far. Isaiah Davis has actually been active. Uh I thought he was injured last week and
9:21someone in the comments was like, "Yeah, he's a multi-week injury or some shit."
9:23Just not the case at all. He just hasn't been playing at all in the backfield.
9:26He's been playing special teams, but he has been active on game day and he's been on the field just not as a running
9:31back. Do I think that's going to be the case going forward? No way. Like, I do think they're going to use him in some
9:34sort of, you know, two-minute drill pass-catching role cuz I think that's where he's best suited and I think that's a good compliment to a dude like
9:41Breylon Allen. You're obviously not playing it playing him at all. He's going to the rather not category, but I do think it's worth mentioning that
9:47Breylon's not just going to get a 95% opportunity share that maybe some people expected. But overall, match up's really good. He's going to get a ton of work.
9:54You know, people are saying the Jets offense has looked way better. I get it and I think they will still look fine
9:59against the Bears, but their run out has been, you know, >> They beat the Tennessee Titans in week one, in arguably arguably the worst team
10:05in the NFL right now, Miami Dolphins, whatever. Uh week two, they put up like 17 points against a Packers defense that
10:11just allowed a 35 burger to the Atlanta Falcons. And then week three, 24 points against the Lions and the Lions are
10:17probably one of if not the worst secondaries in the NFL. So, not to [ __ ] on the Jets, but like to kind of
10:24tell everyone to [ __ ] relax cuz once they their schedule starts to tighten up a little bit, like they're going to
10:29resort back to being the Jets quite a bit. But that won't be for this week.
10:32So, shout out to y'all. On the flip side, we got DeAndre Swift who's just been an absolute workhorse there. Uh looks awesome, gets a good match up
10:37against the New York Jets.
10:39>> Splitting time with Kalen Ballage, but not the way they were last year. So, I don't know if Kalen Ballage is still a
10:43little bit like banged up from the summer injury. Doesn't really look like it. He's getting enough run that he looks fine when he's out there. I think
10:49they've just fully leaned into DeAndre Swift and realized he's a lot more explosive. He's a lot more talented.
10:53Even with Case Keenum under center who I'm predicting will be like I don't think there's any way you switch the quarterback now after Case's awesome
10:59game on primetime. Yeah, Swift is going to end up being a a must start for me.
11:04Kalen Ballage will >> be Yeah, he'll be I don't know. I guess a [ __ ] whatever. Don't don't put Kalen Ballage in your lineups. Next up,
11:10we got Jacksonville at the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are two and a half point favorites at home. 51 and a half
11:17point total here. No weather concerns or anything like that. Chase Brown, obviously the workhorse. Little bit disappointing we're not really seeing
11:24the ceiling games out of him that we hoped to see, but this is one you just stick it out. Like you just keep
11:29attaching Chase Brown to the Cincinnati Bengals offense that is looking good and they will continue to have great days.
11:34Obviously a very tough match up. The Jaguars run defense is pretty stout there.
11:38You know what? Like I don't know that I would put him in the must start category next to these guys, but he's probably in the De'Andre Swift
11:45tier. So, he'll he'll go into the must start category. On the flip side, you got the Jaguars where He's looked a lot
11:51better, but they're still going to use some sort of a committee there with Chris Rodriguez. Two and he did get in
11:56from the one yard line, which was good. Just Travon Walker obviously slid at the one like a [ __ ] but slid at the
12:02one, got Be shall two and his score. If he doesn't score, we're looking at a much worse stat line, of course, and
12:07maybe we're thinking about him differently, but overall, he's he's taking about 55 to 60% of the work, seeing most of the valuable touches
12:13here. So, the Bengals defense is obviously not a run over anymore. Dexter Lawrence has really transformed their run defense. I don't think their defense
12:19is like all world by any means, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are just a really, really good team right now and a player
12:24that I want to attach pieces to. So, he's going to go into the feels good category and there's no one else in this
12:29game that I want to play in my lineup. Dallas at Houston.
12:34They're in Houston. They're in the dome.
12:36Say 48 and a half point total. The Cowboys are two and a half point underdogs here. Houston obviously a very, very, very, very good run defense.
12:43Javonte Williams, you know, he's basically a good bet to score a touchdown every single week as you can see by the minus 135
12:49anytime touchdown line there, but it's a little bit hard to see ceiling games out of him, especially in match ups like
12:54this. So, I'm going to put him in the feels good category, but there's really no world in which Javonte Williams is
12:58not going to be in your lineup. On the flip side, we do have a pure running back by committee here with David
13:04Montgomery and Woody Marks. They are splitting snaps. It's like 55, 45 in terms of David Montgomery. It's not a ton of rhyme or reason for which either
13:12guy is out there. It's sometimes splitting drives. It's sometimes situational, but like Demont's catching passes. He is running routes as is Woody
13:19Marks. We also saw Woody Marks take a goal line carry last week. Is that sticky going forward? Like, of course not. David Montgomery going to get goal
13:25line carries and he has an anytime touchdown line of minus 140. So, on paper, a very good match-up against the Dallas Cowboys, eighth most fantasy
13:33points allowed to the running back position. Just a lot of green across the board, but it is very difficult to project what the split is going to be
13:40looking like in the near future. I will say, depending on Nico Collins' status, I do think that obviously really, really helps the the Houston Texans not have to
13:50face a ton of stacked boxes. Do I think Nico plays? I would lean 51-49 that he does, but I don't know he didn't get a
13:57limited practice in last week. I would say if the hamstring tweak occurred on a Sunday and we had the two full weeks of
14:03rest, I would I would feel confident about it, but I don't think it's a sure thing Nico Collins is back this week. It
14:07does seem like reports are relatively optimistic, but you never know. We don't have any practice reports for this week, plus, you know, it's still just been 10
14:13days, and that feels like it it could be a little bit of a stretch. So, could be a game-time decision for Nico. If Nico
14:18plays, makes me feel a lot better about these guys. For this week, cuz the match-up is good and the over/under is
14:24pretty solid here, I'm going to put David Montgomery into the Dove Flex category. I'm going to put Woody Marks into the Shaky Flex category. Next up,
14:30we've got Arizona at the New York Giants. The New York Giants have, you know, they got the win, but [ __ ] is
14:35looking sloppy out there with James Winston under center. They just traded for J.J. McCarthy, who's going to be under center at some point this season.
14:43When is that going to happen? I don't know, but that's brutal for people who own New York Giants stocks.
14:49So, we've got Cam Akers, this is a 44.5 point total game, so kind of lower on the slate here. The Giants
14:56are 2.5 point underdogs here. Akers does have a minus 130 anytime touchdown line, which feels a little weird. So, I I
15:03don't think the Giants will have a ton of, you know, stressful drives where they're having trouble moving the ball, but the offense just doesn't have a ton
15:11of week-to-week upside right now.
15:13Akers still getting a ton of touches.
15:15Najee Harris is there working in quite a bit. With Akers, he's definitely going to be somewhere in between the feels good and Dove Flex category. I think I'm
15:22probably going to throw him into the dub flex category, but very much towards the top of it here. Jeremey Love finally had
15:28his like breakout game, I guess, in terms of volume and touches last week against San Francisco. Uh Tyler Allgeier only had two carries last week. So, that
15:35was like the split that we were hoping to see as the season progressed. Do I think that's sticky week over week?
15:40Like, do I think the opportunity share is going to be Jeremey Love 25 touches a week and Tyler Allgeier around like four
15:46to five? I don't. Um so, I'm a little bit hesitant to be like, you know, Jeremey Love needs to be in the Derrick
15:53Henry Must Start category right now.
15:55But, you know, he obviously feels really good being in your lineup with this matchup against the Giants who who also just lost Brian Burns on the defensive
16:01side of the ball and I would like him more than Two In. I think I probably like him more than Javonte based on the
16:06matchup. But, Love looks really good. He looks as legit as you can for a number three pick at the running back position
16:11and it finally feels like the Cardinals are comfortable letting him be the dude in that backfield, running routes, catching passes. So, really like Jeremey
16:18Love. Tyler Allgeier will, be in for some plays, but based off last week, I don't know how you can put him anywhere
16:23but the rather not category. Najee getting the second most run at running back here still a rather not though until we see otherwise. Do you think it
16:29could be kind of sharp to stash him before week four in case something does happen to Cam. Scat about. Next up,
16:35we've got the Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a 43 and a half point total. The Eagles are three point
16:40underdogs. Offense has just looked so sloppy, man. This is not a great matchup for them.
16:46Uh yeah, I I I don't really have a strong lean on Saquon. I I think you could watch him and say like he still
16:52looks good. I I I think he still looks good. Does he look as explosive as he did in like 2024? Definitely not to my
16:59naked eye, but that's just my humble opinion. Their offensive line is definitely not as good as it was in 2024. Their offense overall looks a lot
17:07more like it did last year than it did in 2024, which is obviously a huge concern. So, Saquon, weird as it is,
17:14yeah, he's going to go into the feels good category. Obviously near the top of it. Like, you're not playing a dude in a
17:18committee over Saquon Barkley, but they don't get him involved in the passing game at all, unfortunately. Obviously, if they get down to the one, it's going
17:25to be a lot of tush push, but it's hard to trust a dude like Jalen Hurts right now, unfortunately, to move the ball
17:29through the air, especially against a team like the Los Angeles Rams. On the flip side, we've got the Los Angeles Rams, where Kyren Williams is he just
17:37looks significantly better than Blake in most aspects of the game. Kyren Williams looks like it's going to be another season where he just kind of shits on
17:44fantasy people who did not want to draft him. It is a relatively tough match-up against the Eagles. They have allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points allowed
17:53to the position, but when you kind of take a peek under the hood there, they are bottom five in terms of EPA per rush
17:58allowed, in terms of success rate allowed on a down-to-down basis. And obviously, him and him and Blake Corum are like splitting work on the ground.
18:06Like Blake Corum is getting carries. You can see his rush attempt line is at nine and a half, but as we've kind of been
18:11saying all year, Kyren is just so much more trusted in the passing game. He is a much better pass-catcher. Like Blake
18:16Corum does not look natural in the passing game at all. So, shout out for Sean McVay for not [ __ ] forcing the
18:21issue for no reason. Kyren gets the pass-catching work. He's way more likely to get the goal-line work as well. So, he's going right into the feels good
18:27category, and near the top of it as well. Blake Corum will be a shaky flex at best, and we can move upward and
18:33onward. Green Bay at Tampa Bay. I tweeted this out. This is a stoppable force versus a movable object, because the Green Bay Packers offensive line
18:42ranks dead last in the NFL, while the pass rush for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks dead last in the NFL. So, going to
18:49be a bit of a slop fest here. Green Bay's defense is not good. Tampa Bay's defense is not good. So, I think I just
18:55want to start players in this one.
18:57Unfortunately, we are going to have a backup quarterback, because Jaylen Daniels, the undrafted free agent out of Kansas, is making starts, because Baker
19:05Mayfield will be out for the next few weeks. So, everything I just said about starting players actually was a lie, and
19:11I basically just want to start Bucky Irving, Christian Watson, and Matthew Golden in this one, but we'll talk about wide receivers tomorrow. Like I said,
19:18you can subscribe to the channel if you would like to get the same breakdown for receivers. Bucky should get a ton of
19:23work. Green Bay's run defense is really, really bad, and he will be the focal point of their offense with Jalen Daniels under center. Jalen Daniels is
19:31pretty mobile, too, so I'd imagine he'll open up some lanes for him. So, Bucky's going to go into the fields good
19:34category. Yeah, and then uh you just literally cannot start anyone on the Green Bay side of things. You have no idea how the split's going to be. You
19:42have no idea if anyone's going to get more than seven or eight touches in this one. You have no idea who's going to be
19:45on the goal line if and when they get down there. So, yeah, all every single one of them uh Kenneth Gainwell, Chris
19:52Brooks, [ __ ] Shaun Tucker, everybody.
19:54Josh Jacobs, you're not even playing. We putting you in rather not. Uh let's move to the 4:00 slate. We've got Miami at
20:00Minnesota, and I hate to do it, but we're going to have to hide Devon Achane for the remainder of the season. You really, really, really
20:08hate to see a brother uh this talented and just go down, man. Sucks. This is a 38 and 1/2 point total. Disgusting. All
20:15right? We've got a 10 and 1/2 point spread in favor of Minnesota. I can't do the math off the top of my head, but if
20:21the total's 38 and 1/2 and the spread is 10 and 1/2, that would mean Miami's projected to score what? 12 and 1/2
20:27points, 13 and 1/2 points, or something like that? Yeah, around I 13 and 1/2 to 14 points. That's so bad, and that's
20:32what they've been putting up. I think they've put up like 13 points, 13 points, 10 points, or something like that. So, it's gross. Uh for Minnesota,
20:39we do continue to see Aaron Jones get the majority of the work in this backfield. He is old. I I don't know how
20:45much longer he's going to hold up for, but this matchup against Miami, while on a down-to-down basis, maybe they've been a little bit better than given credit
20:50for against the run, but when you just get beat the [ __ ] up out of and every team just can milk the clock and run and
20:56run and run and run, you're going to give up points. And as you can see here, they have allowed the single most
21:00fantasy points per game through three weeks to the running back position. So, Aaron Jones, you You didn't really get it done last week. He is still getting
21:07so much so much work with Jordan Mason continuing to be sidelined here. So, he's going to go into the feels good
21:12category. And then the Miami side of things is obviously where things get interesting cuz with Achane out, we have Ali Gordon, we have Jaylen Wright. This
21:19is a ridiculously tough defense to run the ball against and just to operate an offense against. So, I'm having a tough
21:25time starting anyone from Miami this week, pass catchers, running backs included. Last week we obviously had Ali Gordon pull up as the bellcow once Devon
21:34Achane hurt. He was the goal line guy.
21:36Jaylen Wright did not play, however, right? So, Jaylen Wright was dealing with a minor foot injury slash stinger.
21:41And from what I've understood, from my read, it does seem like Jaylen Wright will be activated uh for this game. And
21:47I do think this will be some sort of a committee. Do I think Ali Gordon will get the first crack at being the
21:51starting back? Yes, I do. Jaylen Wright's a lot more explosive. Ali Gordon's much better bruiser in between the tackles runner. So, when they get
21:58down to the goal line, I would imagine it's Gordon. But, there's also a world where like if Jaylen Wright gets him
22:02down there and he's already on the field, they give him that work. Uh Achane already wasn't catching a ton of passes. And if Achane can't really be
22:10great in this offense, I don't understand how two guys who are a far less superior talent than him uh will be
22:17able to get it done. So, even if you told me Ali Gordon was getting 17 touches in this one, he would go into
22:23the shaky flex category. I do expect him to get about 15 touches, but Minnesota Vikings defense, unknown split between him and Jaylen Wright. Uh want to stash
22:31both of them. Both of them should be owned. Both of them should be picked up in the waiver wire either ran for you
22:36this morning or will run later today.
22:38Like in your idiot league mates are in office league, we do a live stream every Wednesday at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time
22:44where we talk through uh our league updates and things like that. And we have the the the literal live waiver wire run at noon and you guys see what
22:52happens in real time and we talk through it. So, this is a big one for us. Um you know, again, if you don't follow your
22:58idiot league mates, go over to that channel and subscribe. We'll link it down below, but you can just search it in YouTube, your idiot league mates,
23:04you'll be able to find it, but I'm excited to see what Ali Gordon and Jaylen Wright go for. Jaylen Wright owned, see how the backfield
23:10plays out, and then, you know, better matchups ahead, better days ahead. We'll see what that is, but we want to probably stay away from that backfield
23:16for the time being. Next up, we got Kansas City at Las Vegas. Kansas City and Kenneth Walker going right into the
23:23must-start, we don't really got to talk about it. Kansas City only a 4 and 1/2 point favorite. They do not think the 3
23:28and 0 start from the Raiders and what Kumerow is doing over there is really fluky. Otherwise, I I would imagine that
23:32spread would be larger, though it is in Las Vegas, so, you know, that does make sense. If they were in Arrowhead, that
23:37might be an 8 and 1/2-ish, 9 and 1/2 point spread there, but 47 and 1/2 point total, they're in the dome, good
23:43environment. Ashton Jeanty, he has not looked efficient, and this is a tough run defense against Kansas City, but he has seen at least 20 touches in every
23:50game, you know, so he's going to go into the must-start category for me, and there's no one else really that we want
23:56to play. Obviously, Mike Washington can explode for a big play, but you know, you'll never put him in your lineup expecting that to happen. Next up, we've
24:03got the Chargers at the Seattle Seahawks. One of the more difficult backfield configurations for a game to figure out. 42 and 1/2 point total, they
24:11are in Seattle, weather looks good, so that's nice. Anytime they're playing in Seattle, we don't have to deal with the rain here. The Seahawks are 7 point
24:18favorites in this one. So, the Chargers have looked like ass. Rhamondre Hampton gets touches, but now he's splitting more and more work with with Ke'Shawn
24:26Mitchell, and this is probably the single toughest matchup to have against the Seattle Seahawks.
24:31He still has a decent line here, plus 110 as an anytime touchdown line. Rush attempts at 13 and 1/2, so if we can
24:37pair two or three targets along with the 13-14 rushing attempts, I still think he's definitely a flex-worthy play for you, and one I feel like relatively
24:45confident about. We'll get the work at least, so it probably won't be pretty, but I'm still starting him over a dude
24:51like Quintez Cephus Judkins or either of the New England backs here.
24:55And and Ke'Shawn Mitchell getting some work, still very much like a shaky flex at best here. You you don't want him in
25:00your lineup, of course. On the flip side, man, another really difficult one to figure out. They actually have Emmanuel Wilson's rushing yard line
25:08above J.K. Dobbins' prices. Uh, J.K.
25:10Dobbins unfortunately is just not running away with the job like we had hoped while Zach Charbonnet uh has been out. He fumbled last week and then
25:17basically got benched for that. You know, he still had some touches afterwards, but it was later in the game. Emmanuel Wilson kind of took over
25:24there, but I think it's clear that it's going to be some sort of split where Emmanuel Wilson and J.K. Dobbins are
25:28probably getting like 40% 40% of the touches. George Holani mixes in for 15 to 20% of the touches. Really hard to
25:34understand who's going to end up being on the goal line here. Obviously, in an ideal world, it is going to be J.K.
25:39Dobbins, but he has not pulled away enough to make either of these guys anything more than shaky flexes and George Holani is going to go into the
25:46rather not tier. So, unfortunately, you know, two backfields where we were hoping we would get a lot of firepower, a lot of juice from these guys, just not
25:54much to uh to grasp on here for those backfields. Next up, we got Denver at the San Francisco 49ers. The 9ers are
26:01three-point favorites here at home. 47 and 1/2 point total. CMC, of course, going right into the must-start tier.
26:06J.K. Dobbins last week had like 17 carries, but like nothing through the air and then you had R.J. Harvey, terrible on the ground, very few
26:13carries, but a ton through the air. So, like those are the types of players they are. We have Jonah Coleman, he's going
26:18to be out. Keilan Black is a rather not, of course. With both of these guys um I think at this point, especially in like
26:24PPR type leagues, Dobbins' line is pretty high there at 61 and 1/2 rushing yards. Anytime touchdown at plus 120.
26:30Eventually, one of these guys is going to get on the goal line and they're going to give him a carry, but
26:34admittedly, J.K. Dobbins has not looked good, man. He looks pretty slow. He looks like the injuries have finally like really caught up to him. Very few
26:41explosive plays. He's just getting dust carries up the middle there, zero calories. So, like to say he's a dove flex would be crazy. Uh I think both him
26:48and R.J. Harvey are shaky flexes and I think I'm probably going to have Harvey ranked above JK Dobbins this week especially in PPR favored formats.
26:57Detroit at Carolina. All right, so we've got Detroit as three and a half point favorites here in Carolina. 50 and a
27:04half point total. Jamaal Williams of course, I mean he's just hammer stains every single week and then the flip side Jamaal Williams yeah,
27:11you know, good match up against Detroit.
27:13He is getting all of the work here. So 85 total yards on the propers. Yeah, I'm putting him into the mustard category.
27:20You know, they he won't always have the ceiling games and he doesn't have the ceiling of a lot of these other like
27:23elite backs that you see in this tier but you know, I I I feel great if I have Jamaal Williams and he is in my lineup.
27:30Last game we've got Monday night. Shout out to Falco Pooh's not embarrassing me on prime time last week. Let's make it
27:35two please. Atlanta plays at New Orleans. They are in the dome. They are three point underdogs. A 48 and a half
27:40point total. Michael Penix put some life back into this offense. Thank you Mr.
27:44Penix. Bijan of course going into the mustard category. On the flip side a little bit trickier cuz we do have Travis Etienne out for some unnamed
27:53amount of time. Now the backfield is going to be split between Alvin Kamara, between Kendre Miller and some dude who I'm just like regardless of him playing
28:03every single week and annoying me and and making an impact. CJ Donaldson I I'm not really going to learn about him
28:08ever. I'm sorry. I don't care. They continue to be pretty okay just giving Alvin Kamara a lot of touches. I was
28:15listening to an ETR podcast earlier today like the game by game recap from Evan Silva and Adam Levitan and Evan Silva has a you know, relationship with
28:25one of the you know, one of if not the top beat reporters for New Orleans, Nick Underhill and he texted him about you
28:30know, what the backfield split is likely going to look like going forward and he just said like Alvin Kamara. So that
28:34tells me Kamara's going to be the lead guy. However, I definitely think Kendre Miller's going to work in. If this was a
28:3950/50 split wouldn't surprise me at all.
28:41I think Kamara will get the valuable pass catching work in an offense that's throwing the ball a ton that runs a lot
28:46of plays that does check down to the running backs quite often here. So, Kamara has very little juice, but I do
28:52think that he's a good bet to score from the goal line if they get down there.
28:55Plus 105 anytime touchdown. Does feel like they're a little bit too far off on Kendre Miller. Like, wouldn't surprise me at all if they put him in on the goal
29:01line, and I think I'm probably going to nail that plus 390 anytime touchdown line. So, I'm going to put Alvin Kamara
29:07into the Dove Flex tier, definitely towards the bottom of it. He'll probably end up ranked around my RB somewhere RB 26 to RB 30, and that is definitely PPR
29:15leagues. If you're in half PPR standard, he's going to take a pretty big nose dive there. And then Kendre's going to
29:19go into the shaky flex tier. But, Kendre will be active, Alvin Kamara will be active, CJ Donaldson will probably play on like 15% of the snaps in some
29:26annoying, you know, third down and long type role. But, again, we've seen Kamara get enough work right now that they are
29:32clearly going to use him as the first guy. But, I I think this could be a week-to-week thing where they ride the
29:37hot hand and like, you know, Kendre Miller scores a touchdown this week and then maybe he starts and has 12 carries
29:42to Kamara's eight the next week. A little bit difficult to figure out. I do think ETN's going to end up missing
29:46extended time, something in the two to four to five week range based on the re-aggravation of the injury. So, I think we'll have enough runway to kind
29:54of figure out this backfield within the next couple of weeks. But, for now, it's like unknown enough that you definitely have to proceed with caution. But, you
30:01could say David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, they both have the same yardage line. Alvin Kamara is obviously much higher projected in terms of like
30:08receptions, three and a half there. So, again, PPR slanted for the show. And I wouldn't feel the worst about having him
30:13in my lineup. But, I will say, put some respect on the Falcons run defense. Have no idea how we're doing it. I have no idea why we're doing it.
30:19We're getting our backs blown out the first couple games, and still we're putting up good rushing numbers across the board. So, not as lay-uppy of a
30:26matchup as most of y'all probably expect there. But, that's how it's laid out for y'all. We'll go through a slow-mo scroll
30:33so you can see the Mustards got 12 players, so a nice clean RB1 slate. The Feels Good has eight players, so we get
30:40to RB 20. And then when we get to the flex range we've got six guys in the dub flex range. We've got 12 players in the
30:46shaky flex and 15 in the rather nots. As I've already said, these rankings will be up by noon Eastern time today on
30:56Wednesday. So if you are subscribed to the site, you will get access to those.
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31:20you guys for hanging out today. If you enjoyed the video, make sure you hit the button that looks like this. Subscribe
31:25to the channel if you are new and we'll be doing the wide receiver version tomorrow. So another reason to subscribe. I'm out of here. Smoke
31:31cheese.
31:36>> [music]