0:00Good morning, friends and enemies.
0:01Welcome into the very last waiver wire
0:04show of the fantasy football season. It
0:07is week 17. If you're watching this, you
0:09are alive and well, and you are in your
0:11championship match up. Now, today's
0:13video will be going over some player
0:16analysis, but also some strategies about
0:19how we're approaching this week's waiver
0:21wire because it's not only as important
0:23to grab the right guys to mold your
0:25lineup, but it's equally as important to
0:27look at the opponent's lineup and block
0:30them from securing the best lineup
0:33possible. So, this is a chess game in
0:35week 17. So, let's set up the board,
0:37let's set up the pieces, and let's talk
0:39about it. So, the very first thing I
0:41want you to do is look at who you're
0:43playing against. Find the biggest
0:46weaknesses in your lineup and then match
0:48them to your waiver wire. Go see who the
0:52most likely candidates are for them to
0:54pick up. And since it's week 17, this is
0:57the final week. It doesn't matter who
0:58you drop as long as your opponent is not
1:01going to pick him up and play him. So,
1:02if you've been holding on for high
1:03upside guys, handcuffs, receivers that
1:06are your fourth receiver, and your
1:08opponent already has three solidified
1:10wide receivers, and there's no way he's
1:12going to start this guy, those are all
1:14drop candidates for you. If you have FAB
1:16left over, you could use it all in this
1:18week, and I'll give you a little bit of
1:19an example of that. This week in your
1:22idiot league mates, I'm in the
1:23championship and I'm playing against
1:25Jack. Now, Jack's team has studs at the
1:28running back position. His team is so
1:30good that if Emmanuel Wilson ends up
1:32being the starter, if Josh Jacobs is
1:34out, he can't even put him into his
1:35lineup because his running back room is
1:37that good. So, when I look at my team
1:39and I'm looking at my roster, I'm like,
1:40"AJ Dillon, Swift, cool." My other
1:42running backs are Kalenji, Kareem Hunt,
1:44Rico Dowdle. All three of those guys are
1:46drop candidates for me. It's like,
1:48"Sure, I don't want to drop Rico Dowdle
1:49if I don't have to. I don't want to drop
1:50Kalenji if I don't have to." They're not
1:52getting into my lineup this week, and I
1:53know that Jack can't put him into his
1:55lineup, so I don't care that they go and
1:57hit the wire. His team, he's got Drake
1:59Maye as the QB1, but his QB2 is Cam
2:02Ward. Now, Cam Ward's coming off a good
2:04game, but do you trust him in the
2:05championship as your QB2? This is a
2:06superflex league, so we start two
2:08quarterbacks. Therefore, last week I
2:10actually picked up Geno, not because I'd
2:11never play him, because I have T-Law,
2:13Brock Purdy, and Stafford who all put up
2:1531 pieces this week, but because I knew
2:18that Jack needed a quarterback too next
2:20week. It's Cam Ward versus the Saints,
2:22and maybe he's going to be a better
2:23option than Geno, but I know Geno plays
2:25against the Giants at home, and the off
2:27chance that he picked up Geno, started
2:29him over Cam Ward, and that was the
2:30difference-maker. I went ahead and
2:31preemptively made that move. So, that's
2:32what you're going to be doing today. If
2:34your opponent needs a quarterback too, I
2:35know Jack does, Malik Willis is sitting
2:37on our waiver somewhere. So, Malik
2:39Willis would be a guy that I go and try
2:41and block. He also needs wide receivers
2:42bad, so I would look at our wide
2:43receiver position and say, "Hey, maybe I
2:45go grab a Matt Collins. Maybe I go grab
2:47Trey Tucker." Or try to at least to
2:49block Jack from having that as an
2:50option. So, that's first and foremost
2:52what I want you to do. Again, chess
2:54games here. Same thing with defenses,
2:56you might want to pick up two or three
2:58of them if it blocks your opponent from
2:59having the best one available. So, we
3:01can get into the actual player analysis
3:03now, and as we always do, we go through
3:04the trending up, trending down tab and
3:06talk about guys that I think are worth
3:07picking up that are owned in fewer than
3:0950% of sleeper leagues. Now, the top
3:13running back room to probably talk about
3:14right now is the Cleveland Browns. We
3:15have Kwishon Judkins who breaks his leg.
3:17He's going to be out for the remainder
3:18of the season. What does that leave us
3:20with in the backfield? On Sunday, it was
3:22Raheem Sanders, who was an undrafted
3:23free agent rookie this year. Big body
3:26dude, 220, 230 lbs, 6'1, whatever. He's
3:29a, you know, he's a, he's a bruising
3:30type of back. You had Trayvion Williams
3:32sticking for the pass-catching role, so
3:33they had, they had very, very
3:34clear-defined roles there. Sanders as
3:36the early-down guy will get the
3:37goal-line carries. Trayvion Williams as
3:39the scatback in that offense. Now, the
3:41wrench here is Dee Ernest Johnson. He
3:43was their fourth-round rookie who showed
3:44a lot of promise this year and had a
3:45bunch of good games. It's snowing out
3:47here in New York right now. Johnson, I
3:49really like Johnson. I think he's an
3:50awesome back. They play against
3:51Pittsburgh this week, and Johnson has
3:53missed the last couple weeks with a calf
3:55injury and then a hand injury. The hand
3:57injury is what kept him out this
3:58previous week. You would think that a
3:59hand injury, if you're not having
4:00surgery on it, you'd be able to come
4:01back from pretty quickly, and I do think
4:04if Dee Ernest Johnson is back for this
4:05game, he will take over as the starting
4:07running back in Cleveland, but it does
4:09leave a little bit of a messy situation
4:10cuz we have not really seen him operate
4:12as like the clear bellcow at any point
4:14this year. So, while I do think he's by
4:16far and away the most talented guy they
4:18have on the roster, if he's healthy, I
4:20would imagine there's some sort of a
4:21committee here. I don't know, he might
4:23get pulled on the goal line for a guy
4:25like Raheem Sanders, which does make it
4:26messy. So, if you're in a PPR league and
4:28Dee Ernest Johnson ends up playing, I do
4:30think he's a flex-worthy add for you
4:31this week. If he doesn't play and it's
4:33Sanders and Trayvion Williams again, I'm
4:35not interested in playing Trayvion
4:36Williams. Raheem Sanders, I think could
4:39be made the case for that he could be a
4:40flex player as well. Him and Trayvion
4:42Williams kind of split the snaps evenly
4:44last week when Judkins left, but he did
4:46get 11 carries, took it for 42 yards.
4:48He's a fine back. He's not overly
4:50talented by any means, but if it's just
4:52those two for the entirety of the game,
4:53you know Cleveland's going to want to
4:54lean on their running backs against a
4:56team like Pittsburgh. So, I do think
4:57Raheem Sanders has like a 15-touch
5:00outlook on the horizon. After that,
5:02you've got Emmanuel Wilson who's
5:03obviously a must-own if Josh Jacobs is
5:05out for this week, Wilson will end up
5:06being likely a bellcow in this
5:08situation. And just to touch on the
5:09quarterback room in Green Bay, you had
5:11Jordan Love who suffered a concussion on
5:13Saturday, but it doesn't give him an
5:15extra day because they play again on
5:16Saturday this upcoming week. So, he's
5:18got 7 days, the normal, you know,
5:19week-to-week timeline to clear the
5:21concussion protocol. If he doesn't go,
5:23it would be Malik Willis filling in
5:25there. If he's good to go, he injured
5:26his shoulder late in the game against
5:28Chicago on Saturday, but he did finish
5:30the game, so it does feel like it leans
5:31more towards him being okay to go. When
5:33Malik Willis is under center, they're
5:35typically a much more run-heavy offense.
5:37I just think Emmanuel Wilson will
5:39obviously just end up being like a top
5:4012, top 10 fantasy running back for the
5:42week. Last time he filled in for Josh
5:44Jacobs, he went for like 125 yards and
5:47two touchdowns, so he obviously needs to
5:49be owned at this point. There's no one
5:50else really on this list that's under,
5:52you know, 50% owned that I think is
5:53worth having right now. Rodriguez is at
5:5551%. He's a flex play against Dallas. He
5:58took back over the starting role. Will
5:59get the goal-line carries here in
6:01Washington against a a good match up
6:03here, but they might be without Marcus
6:04Mariota in this one and Jayden Daniels,
6:06obviously, so they're going to turn to
6:07whoever their third string is, and it's
6:09probably going to get messy. I think
6:09it's Josh Johnson there, so don't expect
6:11a lot of success there in Washington on
6:13Thursday. The other one that might be
6:15unowned in your league is Michael Carter
6:17here. He was the starter last week
6:18against Atlanta, ran effectively 11 for
6:2065, but didn't have much else going on
6:23there. They do get a really good match
6:24up against Cincinnati in week 17 though,
6:27so Michael Carter would be a dude that
6:28has flex appeal if he's available in
6:30your league. Moving on to the wide
6:32receiver position, you have Parker
6:33Washington who obviously exploded. He's
6:35like a really good after-the-catch type
6:38of player, but like banking on his
6:39consistency going forward feels a little
6:42crazy. He's obviously had some ceiling
6:43games, but he's had a lot of floor games
6:44as well. I think that's just the
6:45consistency of this passing offense. The
6:48positives here are they play at Indy, so
6:50they're in a dome, and I don't think
6:52this Indy passing defense is really any
6:53good. They just got shredded by Brock
6:55Purdy. It would be the window that they
6:57open up to get Sauce Gardner back
6:59though, right? They didn't put him on
7:00the IR, so he's missed three weeks
7:01already, which means that they had the
7:02possibility for him returning after
7:04three weeks, which would put him in the
7:06return for this week. Why I think that's
7:08important is last week they were playing
7:10at Denver. On paper, very tough match up
7:12to throw the ball against. Basically,
7:14Patrick Surtain kind of lined up against
7:16Brian Thomas Jr. most of the game, which
7:18left the middle of the field kind of
7:19open, which is where Parker Washington
7:21did a lot of damage. He did some like
7:22screen damage on the outside, made guys
7:24miss after the fact, so I don't want to
7:25just like take that away from him,
7:26obviously. But I do think again, if Indy
7:29gets back Sauce Gardner, they're already
7:30down Trevarius Ward and Sauce Gardner,
7:32which is why like their quarterback room
7:33is completely depleted. If Sauce is
7:35back, he'll probably primarily play
7:37against Brian Thomas Jr., which should
7:38open up some secondary targets, but I do
7:40think I would very much caution people
7:42to like go ahead and label Parker
7:43Washington as a must-start here as he's
7:45still only playing on around 50% of the
7:48snaps. We're going to have a lot of
7:49recency bias just based on this big
7:51game, of course. Mumfield, he's way too
7:53low of a floor player for me to want to
7:55start him in championship weekend. Mack
7:57Hollins, I actually do think is a pretty
7:58damn good pickup and sharp start this
8:00week if you're desperate for like a
8:0210-point guy. They got a great match up
8:04against the New York Jets here. Drake
8:06Maye should kind of have his way there
8:07if he wants to. Mack Hollins, you know,
8:09normally running around 80% of the
8:11routes in this offense, coming off of a
8:14nine-target game, eight targets the week
8:15before that. He's got like a floor of
8:17five to six targets, and every once in a
8:19while he kind of splashes for a big play
8:21or two. Hasn't scored since week four,
8:23but if he pops for a score, he's just a
8:24guy that's attached to one of the MVP
8:27candidates, a guy that runs a lot of
8:28routes, a guy that's in a proficient
8:29offense and has a great match up this
8:31week, so I think like Mack Hollins, if
8:32you're desperate and need a wide
8:33receiver fill, don't hate him this week.
8:35Kind of the same thing with Trey Tucker.
8:37Obviously not attached to a good
8:38quarterback, but they do play against
8:40the New York Giants at home, and I think
8:42Geno Smith and the Las Vegas offense,
8:44mainly Ashton Dulin busting off big
8:46plays, probably put forward their best
8:48effort of the year last week at Houston,
8:50so good match up. Trey Tucker, you know,
8:52hasn't done much since really exploding
8:53in that week three game against
8:54Washington back in the day day, but I
8:56think Trey Tucker is like another dude
8:57that you could kind of make the case
8:59for. Shemmy DK has been all right, three
9:01touchdowns in his last five games.
9:03That's not even including the return
9:04touchdown. He's very, very boomer bust,
9:06as you can see. It's like 3, 21, -13, 5,
9:0913. So, very low floor, decently good
9:13ceiling here. Don't really want to trust
9:15the Titans pass catcher, so I'd probably
9:16look elsewhere. And then we can probably
9:18move on to the tight end position. You
9:20have Taysom Hill and Jake Tonges are
9:22probably the only ones that I would
9:24discuss here that are owned in less than
9:2550% of leagues. Taysom Hill kind of came
9:28out of nowhere on Sunday, became like
9:30the featured running back, the featured
9:31player in the Saints offense against the
9:33Jets defense, but I do think it's
9:35important to highlight that point. It
9:36came against the Jets abysmal defense,
9:39and as you could see, he scored 15
9:41fantasy points, and that was the first
9:43time he's gone over 6.1 fantasy points
9:46this entire season. It's like his worst
9:47fantasy season of his entire career. But
9:50that being said, you know, it feels like
9:52they lost Kamara, they lost Kendre
9:54Miller, they lost Devin Neal. Felt like
9:55that was their breaking point. They're
9:56like, "Okay, you know what? Alright,
9:58Taysom Hill, this is where like Taysom
10:00Hill will put him in there." So, he had
10:0212 carries in this one, which was more
10:03than double Estime and Evan Hull
10:06combined. He caught four passes. He
10:08threw the touchdown to Chris Olave at
10:09the end of the game. So, he was involved
10:10everywhere. And if Alvin Kamara is not
10:12back, it kind of feels like that's
10:13probably going to be the game plan
10:14again. I do think for me, Taysom Hill is
10:17not a must start. But, we've seen we've
10:19seen this movie before. Taysom Hill in
10:21the fantasy playoffs like explodes, does
10:23everything on the field, becomes the
10:25focal point of the Saints passing
10:26offense, the focal point of their
10:27running offense, and just has these
10:29major high ceiling games. Going to be
10:30very volatile though. If he comes out
10:32and has a three-point game, no one
10:33should be surprised there. So, because
10:35of the volatility and the range of
10:36outcomes for Taysom Hill, he still won't
10:38be a must start for me. He probably
10:40won't even get inside like the top
10:41eight, maybe even top 10 tight ends for
10:43me. Definitely not a must start guy, but
10:45think it should be noted obviously. And
10:47then last night, we had George Kittle
10:49leave the game with an ankle sprain.
10:51Now, the severity still to be
10:53determined. Twitter doctors are saying
10:55could be a high ankle sprain. Don't
10:56know. He left, but they might have just
10:58been up enough points that like it
10:59wasn't crucial that he came back into
11:01the game. So, could be severity, could
11:03be the flow of the game. Not exactly
11:05sure what George Kittle's injury status
11:06is going to be. But, if George Kittle
11:08misses, they play against the Chicago
11:10Bears next week. Middle of the pack
11:12against tight ends. But, Juwan Johnson
11:13has filled in pretty damn well for
11:16George Kittle when he missed time in the
11:17intermediate part of the year there.
11:19Week four, five, and six, very very
11:20involved. Those are legit tight end one
11:22numbers. And this is a passing offense
11:24that revolves around the tight end in
11:26the passing game. If it's not C-Mac,
11:27it's typically the tight end. And if
11:29George Kittle doesn't play, Ricky
11:31Pearsall, I would say I'm like
11:32relatively pessimistic re-aggravating
11:34the knee that he ends up playing in this
11:36upcoming week. So, there's going to need
11:37to be targets going somewhere. And if I
11:39had to bet, Jake Tonges would be a
11:41pretty solid streaming option in week
11:4217. I mean, other than that, I I don't
11:45think I have much else to say. We're not
11:46going to do a drop list obviously, cuz
11:48anyone that you're not going to use and
11:49your opponent's not going to use is is
11:51droppable in the final week of the
11:53season. For defenses, as always, one I
11:56have my rankings up in the waiver wire
11:57rankings. Of course, if you're a big dog
11:59member, you'll have access to those on
12:00the website. They're live as I'm filming
12:02this. Always with defenses, look for
12:04teams that are expected to win their
12:06game. So, look at point spreads, teams
12:08that are seven-point favorites,
12:09eight-point favorites, 12-point
12:11favorites. Those are the best teams to
12:13stream their defenses for if they're at
12:15home, that's a great tiebreaker. If
12:17they're playing against turnover-prone
12:19or rookie quarterbacks, that's a great
12:20tiebreaker. High over/unders is good if
12:23there's a big spread, cuz you want the
12:24opponent's quarterback dropping back,
12:26cuz that ends up leading to sacks, that
12:28ends up leading to strip sacks, that
12:30ends up leading to interceptions. And
12:31more often than not, those are where the
12:33touchdowns come from for defenses. So, I
12:36will leave you there. Go dominate the
12:38waiver wire this week. Go dominate your
12:40opponents. And I will be back with the
12:42next video, which is our rankings video,
12:44of course. I won't leave you hanging
12:46here before Christmas. I'm undecided on
12:48how I'm going to do this final video or
12:50two, if I'm going to split them up into
12:51the running back and wide receiver
12:53version, or because we are tight on time
12:55before the holidays, and I'm not sure
12:57what my editor's schedule is going to be
12:59this week. And I'm going home on
13:00Wednesday. So, normally I film the wide
13:02receiver on Thursday. I might do one big
13:04ass video, where I just do running backs
13:06and wide receivers together and just
13:07shoot that out to you guys as one. So,
13:09you let me know if you have a
13:10preference. I doubt you guys could give
13:11a [ __ ] But, yeah, that's all I got. So,
13:14if you guys have appreciated these
13:15waiver wire videos throughout the
13:16season, of course, make sure you drop a
13:18thumbs up down below. Subscribe to the
13:20channel if you are new here somehow in
13:22week 17. have the rankings for you.
13:24Otherwise, happy holidays. Merry
13:26Christmas. Go light up the menorah. Go
13:29light up your opponents on the waiver
13:30wire. I love y'alls. Smooches.
13:43>> [music]
