The WRs Most Likely to Breakout in 2026
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
29 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 26, 2026
Published
Fri, June 26, 2026
10
Player insights
10
Players mentioned
Topics
Carson BeckChase BrownGarrett WilsonJa'Marr ChaseJalen CokerJeremiyah LoveJoe BurrowMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael WilsonTrey McBride
Player analysis
Player insights
Carson Beck
NegativeProjection7:15
If becomes Cardinals quarterback, analyst likes outcome even less for Marvin Harrison Jr.; represents downside QB scenario.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveRole6:08
Part of condensed offensive pieces in Bengals offense alongside Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and T. Higgins; context for target distribution.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveProjection5:29
WR16 ranking with proven track record of finishing as WR1; past performance demonstrates ceiling potential.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveUsage5:52
Commands more volume than T. Higgins; Flaco liked Jamar Chase more than Joe Burrow did last year. Combined target share between Chase and Higgins will be insane given lack of other legitimate targets in Bengals offense.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveUsage4:25
Target share in Panthers week 14 was very even compared to Teroa McMillan's target share, indicating competitive target distribution between the two receivers.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveRole6:45
Drafted top-five overall by Cardinals at running back; suggests potential run-heavy offensive shift that could impact target distribution for Marvin Harrison Jr.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection5:32
Analyst believes Burrow will fully compete for MVP award this year and be at top of his game as good as he's ever looked in NFL; context for T. Higgins upside.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeProjection6:15
WR18 ranking; top-five capital WR with real downside cases and systemic risk. Projected to see 130-140 targets per year on par with Trey McBride. Has 63% catchable target rate since joining NFL (second lowest in span), indicating target quality concern. Previous QBs Kyler Murray and Drew Pettine were not the answer. Upside case: Michael LaFleur as offensive coordinator calling progressive, high-quality offense; if Cardinals throw ball ton like last year, much could go to Harrison Jr. Downside: Trey McBride is target monster, Michael Wilson improved significantly, Jeremiah Love drafted top-five at RB suggesting potential run-heavy shift. Additional QB concern: Jacobe Brassette had huge stats last year but now has full year of film; if Carson Beck gets field, even worse for Harrison Jr. If target quality improves, stays healthy, and operates as WR1, some upside remains.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveRole6:25
Significantly better than expected; improved performance adds to target competition landscape in Cardinals offense alongside Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveUsage6:25
Target monster in Cardinals offense projected to see 130–140 targets per year, on par with Marvin Harrison Jr., creating significant target competition within the offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, after I have run the numbers, these are the most likely breakout wide receivers for fantasy
0:10football 2026. We just did the running back version a couple days ago, so make sure you check out that video either
0:15before or after this. All right. And the way that this works is we're going to look at every wide receiver in ADP from
0:21wide receiver 13 through 30. All right.
0:24So, if they're already ranked within the top 12, we will not be looking at them because they are considered to be
0:28breakouts already. We will also exclude disqualify any receiver within that range of wide receiver 13 to wide receiver 30 in ADP that has already
0:37finished in their career as a wide receiver one at one point or another.
0:41They are excluded. They are disqualified. So again, we did the running back version of this. We're doing the wide receiver version of this
0:47today. After each synopsis of every player, we will be giving them a score.
0:51their likelihood relative to the other players on this list of them finishing as a top 12 wide receiver one this year
0:58in fantasy football. So again, if it's a 9 out of 10 score, that does not mean I think they have a 90% chance of
1:03finishing as a wide receiver one. I just think their score is very high relative to the other players on this list that
1:09we'll be talking about in the video today. And if you're curious, so the first receiver we're actually
1:21going to talk about is Teroa McMillan, who's a wide receiver 15 right now in ADP. Wide receiver 13 is Malik Neighbors. Wide receiver 14 is Devonte
1:29Smith. Both of them have already finished as wide receiver ones at one point or another in their career. So, Tenera McMillan, rookie year last year,
1:38fire. Guy is an unbelievable alpha as a wide receiver. Wins offensive rookie of the year. I think genuinely at the wide
1:45receiver position, he is a bonafide superstar. He's like one of the the clear like alpha receivers that we've seen come into the league in in recent
1:53years. Finishes with 70 catches, over 1,000 yards as a rookie is incredibly impressive. Obviously, seven touchdowns.
1:58I don't know what else you could have asked for from a dude like this who steps into a low volume passing offense
2:04who steps into the role as the alpha immediately, right? Just asked to be that guy from the minute that he was
2:10drafted and covered everything that he was supposed to. Realistically, the only flaw I saw in his game last year while watching him felt like drops. Like he
2:17had a lot of concentration drops, but not something I'm worried about, you know, being sticky or problematic for him in fantasy football over the course
2:22of his career. Uh he had a 25.4% 4% target share last year, which is obviously insane as a rookie. A 40.9%
2:30airy yard share, sixth highest in the entire NFL, fourth highest deep target share rate. He had 51.2% of the deep targets in the Carolina Panthers offense
2:39last year, a 33.3% first read target share. My concern with Ted's fantasy outlook that I'm sure I share with every single person in the
2:48fantasy community is that it just feels like uh how are we going to get the volume there for Tedoro McMillan to have
2:55that alpha alpha season, right? It's the Carolina Panthers and we have Bryce Young. They were 29th in pass rate over
3:03expectation last year. Bryce Youngs per attempt 6.3. Adjusted yards per attempt 5.9. air yards per attempt, 6.5, 30th or
3:15worse in all three categories. I just, you know, Bryce has has he's improved year-over-year. We're just not going to see him being a high volume guy, I don't
3:25think. At least not in this upcoming year. And that's going to hurt the alpha, right? Like as much as we can
3:29love Tara McLaren and DJ Moore and all these guys who were like drafted to be the wide receiver one and they'll
3:35probably take a 25 28% target share in their respective offenses, we just have to wait until the situation changes for those guys in order to see upside. Test
3:44Vegas line going into this year 925.5 and 6 and a half touchdowns. And I I feel like that's pretty accurate. It's
3:51it's just Bryce Young, man. He had four games all of last year where he topped 200 passing yards. Four games the entire
3:59year of 200 passing yards. That is an insane stat for a quarterback. So, you know, a lot of what we saw from T last
4:06year was this like he ranked very highly in a lot of volume stats. So, with with Jaylen Coker getting this extension and
4:13hopefully healthy, them drafting wide receivers consistently over the last couple years, including this year with Chris Brazzle coming in, I'm I'm
4:20nervous. I'm nervous. So this is a very very small sample size from my man Adam Fe over here following the Carolina
4:25Panthers week 14 buy T's target share versus Jaylen Coker's target share very very even and and I think you can make
4:31the argument that like having another real weapon will actually help Teroa McMillan but statistically again if you have another weapon commanding real
4:37targets if you have Bryce Young in a very low passing volume offense I think they just want to hide Bryce Young at
4:42this point like it just doesn't feel great to have Tero McMillan as my wide receiver one so I think this is one of
4:48those situations it's okay to acknowledge a player is incredible without obsessing about them being a high-end fantasy asset. So, I'll need to
4:56see some sort of material change in Carolina, I think, for me to buy him at a wide receiver one price. He's the wide
5:00receiver 15, so it's not like you're necessarily having to buy him at a wide receiver one price. And I think your
5:04fantasy team will be in relatively good shape if he is your wide receiver, too.
5:08But if you need to pay a more premium price for him, I think that's going to be a problem. So, overall, like T, the
5:13makeup of the player, he's he's an alpha, obviously. If Bryce Young takes another step up, if they go a little bit
5:18more pass heavy, if Ted improves as a playmaker, whatever the case may be, I still give him, you know, again, because
5:23the score is relative to other people on the list, he's still a 7.5 out of 10 for me here, but I have reservations. Wide
5:29receiver 16 is Garrett Wilson. He's already finished as a wide receiver one.
5:32Wide receiver 17 is T. Higgins. I mean, I think it's obvious that he can finish as a wide receiver one. Like when Burrow
5:39had his monster year in 2024, T. Higgins averaged 18.7 PPR points per game, which is easy wide receiver one numbers. And
5:46I'm in the camp that believes that Joe Burrow will fully compete for the MVP award this year. And I think we'll see
5:52him be at the top of his game as as good as he's ever looked in the NFL. Um, he's obviously not going to command volume
5:58like Jamar Chase is, but Burrow loves him near the end zone. And it felt like Flaco liked Jamar Chase more than Joe
6:04Burrow did last year. When he came back in, Burrow was targeting T. Higgins all over the place. So, they don't have a
6:08legit other target in this offense besides Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. So, the target share combined between those two is going to be insane. And Tiggins
6:15always misses a handful of games.
6:17Otherwise, he wouldn't have qualified for this list. Like, he probably would have already had multiple low-end wide receiver one finishes. So, this is an
6:23offense that you want the very condensed pieces of Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, T.
6:27Higgins, Chase Brown. So, Tiggins for me uh is as good of a number, is as good of a score, good of a rating as Tedo
6:33McMillan here. So, I'm I'm also going to throw him into the 7.5 out of 10 score.
6:38Wide receiver 18, Marvin Harrison Jr., I have jumped into his, you know, outlook for the year in depth in multiple videos
6:46already this summer, and we will link those down below if you want a little bit more depth here. I think ultimately,
6:50like, we knew that Kyler and Drew Petting were just not the answer for Marvin Harrison Jr., a top five Capital wide receiver. I think the downside
6:58cases are are very real here. I think there's still systemic risk. I I Trey McBride's a target. monster. Michael Wilson's obviously a lot better than
7:04people thought he would be. They draft a running back top five overall and Jeremiah Love. So, you'd imagine that one of him getting a ton of targets
7:11andor them trying to go much more runheavy is likely going to factor into the Arizona Cardinals team this year. I will say they're projected to lose
7:20basically every game this year. So, they're going to be playing from behind and probably throw the ball a lot and still have a lot of passing attempts.
7:25So, I'm not like overly concerned about it. I think the upside case here is Michael Laflur coming in if he can call
7:30a really good offense. if he is anything like his brother just in terms of being a progressive minded high quality offensive coach, this is going to be an
7:36offense that takes a huge step up. And again, if they throw the ball a ton like they did last year, then a lot of that I
7:42think ideally will go to Marvin Harrison Jr. I think in a world where the Cardinals have things break correctly for him, Trey McBride's obviously a
7:50target vacuum there, but I think Ma is on par with him seeing the 130 to 140 targets per year. And if he's anywhere
7:58near as good as we think he is as he was coming out and you can still see by the percentile ranks in reception perception
8:04by Matt Harmon, he's still an 80th percentile separator. Their schedule in the playoffs for fantasy playoffs is great. Jets, Saints, Raiders here. You
8:11can see this final tweet by Mike Florio here. Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 63% catchable target rate since joining the NFL. That is the second lowest in that
8:20entire span. So, if the target quality is a little bit higher and we have him staying healthy and he is operating as
8:26the one, which I expect him to be, I think there's probably a little bit more upside left on the bone here for for us
8:32to chew on. But there's real target competition. There's real concerns about this offense. And one thing I didn't even mention was the concern about
8:38quarterback, right? Jacobe Brassette came in and threw up huge statistics last year. Now, you have a full year of film on him. And I I don't know how well
8:45that's going to work. And even if it doesn't, you'd have to imagine some other QB is going to get on the field.
8:50If it's Carson Beck, I like that even less for Marvin Harrison Jr. So, I think MHA could take a step up. I still think
8:55again we need a quarterback change in order for him to be that wide receiver one that we want in fantasy. So, on this
9:00list, Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to get a four out of 10 score. Wide receiver 19 is Zay Flowers. He's already
9:07finished as a wide receiver one. He did last year in full PPR. And by the way, yes, those are full PPR scoring rankings
9:14in terms of deciding whether or not they've been wide receiver ones and will be in the upcoming year. My personal rankings are up on our website right
9:21now, bdge.co if you are a fantasy member and we work with them, but this is like a sick sick promo they got going on at BetMGM. Right
9:30now, if you sign up on MGM and use our code BDGE when you deposit $10 or more, place your first slip on there and you
9:38will get access to our entire membership package on our website for the next 3 months just for placing a slip on MGM.
9:44So, our draft guide this summer is also included in the fantasy membership.
9:48We've kind of consolidated we've consolidated our targets. All right.
9:51Everything is included in the fantasy membership now, which again, $10 on MGM using our code BDGE. When you place your first slip, we'll get you a free 3
10:01months to everything on the website bdge.co.
10:04Wide receiver 20, Lad McCunki. Upside case is extremely real here. You have Justin Herbert, who is another player that I think is going to compete heavily
10:13for the MVP award. You have an offensive line that is incredibly improved both by health and draft capital and signing Tyler Bottes like you know free agents,
10:22draft capital, health coming back like their offensive line should actually be it goes from one of the worst in the league last year with all the injuries
10:27to an actual asset this year in my opinion. Mike McDaniel coming over as the offensive coordinator. We've seen what he's done to both just improve the
10:36efficiency of of quarterback play, the run game. I mean, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Wadd, the wide receivers over there who are highly targeted and are the number
10:43one and two in the pecking order eat.
10:45And that's what Lad Mcconkey is going to be here. So, it's one of those where it's like, is Lad as good as the top
10:51tier receivers in the NFL? No, definitely not. But, if you tie him to a situation that's as good as any in the
10:58NFL, then yeah, he can just kind of rise with that tide here. So, I'm very much in on Lad Mankey. When I look at Mike
11:05McDaniel, what he did in Miami into his big year 2023, he threw the ball 560 times. The very next year, he only
11:12played 11 games, but he threw it 400 times in 11 games, a 618 attempt pace.
11:18And if you guys remember early in his career, Herbert like he was throwing up insane numbers. 595 attempts, 672 attempts, 699 attempts, and then
11:27obviously Greg Roman comes in and absolutely just deflates the number of passing attempts. Now they have a guy who understands the best aspect of your
11:34offense is Justin Herbert's [ __ ] cannon attached to his elbow. You also have the number one target earner in the
11:40offense last year, Keenan Allen gone.
11:42Rookie Lad Mani finished as the wide receiver 13 in PPR. So he just missed this list. He only had 112 targets that
11:48year. All right. So like I don't know the the math here is feels pretty simple for me. So I'm giving Lab Makoni also a
11:547.5 out of 10. Moving to wide receiver 21, we have Amecha Ibuka over in Tampa Bay. incredible start to his rookie
12:01season last year. Obviously really fell flat towards the end. Still finishes with a really strong rookie line. 63 catches, 938 yards, six touchdowns, 14.9
12:11yards per reception. It's obviously really important to add a lot of context to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. And I think the injuries kind of play the
12:20role of what happened and the path that went up and down last year. He suffered a hamstring strain in mid-occtober and
12:26somehow never missed. Like players who suffer hamstring strains, they're almost twoame minimum, usually three to four.
12:33He ends up playing right away. If you watched him play with a hamstring strain, he was obviously limited. I think it had a lot more to do with the
12:39fact that Evans was already hurt and Chris Godwin was coming back and and hurt as well from a serious lower body
12:45injury. So like I think he needed to step up and I think he was probably trying to prove his toughness as a
12:49rookie. And after Baker's AC sprain in his shoulder, this is a crispy stat from Hayden over at Underdog. Following Baker's AC sprain, Ibuka's catchable
12:58target rate was near 50% for the rest of season. That is the lowest rate. That was the lowest rate from that time span
13:05on in the NFL. So, I think there was so much working against him. And I don't want to say like, listen, I think he was
13:10bad at times last year, too. He was dropping way too many passes, but he did have the second most unrealized air
13:16yards in the entire NFL last year with a 40.9% deep target share rate. And now you have, you know, the biggest weapon
13:23that Tampa Bay's had over the last decade. Mike Evans obviously gone. He's in San Francisco. So the obvious path here is this guy who was really good, I
13:32having a good rookie year, now stepping into the alpha role. So that path just feels extremely clear to me. Tampa brings in another new offensive
13:40coordinator, which is their fourth in four years. But it's Zack Robinson coming over from Atlanta. And I think this was the type of step up we saw with
13:48Drake London when we moved from Arthur Smith to Zack Robinson and they started using Drake London way more in the slot,
13:55moving him around the formation and like just getting him open easily. That first year with Zack Robinson. First year he obviously goes over a 100 catches, 160
14:02targets in this offense. Zack Robinson came in immediately kind of like set Twitter on fire. He said he he coached Cooper Cup during his triple crown
14:10season. He said Amecha Iabuka is very similar to Cooper Cup just in terms of the way that his brain works with the
14:15game of football and his natural instincts. So his fourth round price in drafts right now makes a ton of sense to
14:21me. Would not fault anyone for targeting him earlier. And uh he's going to get an 8.5 out of 10 score on this list. The
14:29next two receivers we have are the Chicago Bears wide receivers. Now Luther Burton is the wide receiver 22. Roma Dunes is the wide receiver 28. So there
14:38is a pretty significant gap between the two of them. And the reason I'm putting them both together is because the wide
14:43receivers 23 to 27 have all finished as wide receiver ones before. That is Terry McLaren, Damonte Adams, Jaylen Wadd, Jameson Williams finished as the wide
14:52receiver 12 just this previous year and Mike Evans. So it is those two kind of backtoback. The Chicago Bears passing offense feels like one you need to
14:59figure out correctly in order to do fantasy football correctly in 2026 because we're expecting Caleb Williams to take another, you know, another step
15:08forward in Ben Johnson's offense. Second year, they've got a really good offensive line. They didn't really secure the defense at all. So, they're
15:16probably going to have to throw the ball a decent amount coming into 2026. You have these young talented draft capital heavy weapons. Remember Rome top 10
15:25pick, Luther Burden top 40 pick, Coulson Lovelin top 10 pick. Like you have this influx of guys entering their prime that
15:32were all highly touted prospects. It took Luther a while to kind of get going last year. He barely played before their
15:39week nine buy and then he got that, you know, or at least he showed a ton of promise post week 9 buy. The easiest
15:45upside case for Luther Burton is obviously DJ Moore is gone, right? DJ Moore no longer in Chicago. He's in Buffalo. And I think what Luther Burden
15:52does really well is what DJ Moore did a lot of in this offense, like operate around the line of scrimmage, get the
15:56ball in his hands, screen targets, allow him to make plays in space. DJ Moore ranked top 15 in the NFL last year with
16:0313 screen targets. And Zakius also had six himself. So that is 19 screen targets for wide receivers opening up in this offense. And I don't really see
16:12another guy like you don't give Roma screen targets. Coulson Loveven's going to be a highly targeted guy, but that's not wide receiver screen targets. It's
16:18really I'd imagine Luther Burton kind of takes almost all of these. He's pretty expensive in the middle of the fourth for a guy that we only saw really be
16:26productive for a small sample size. And even in some of the games where he like blew up, they were low volume like small
16:32sample sizes within small sample sizes it feels like. And a lot of people kind of nitpick like that, hey, he was elite
16:38on a yards per run basis. And then the people that aren't like Luther Birden stands will say like oh you know if you
16:43now include the playoffs his yards per run significantly drops. So, I try to step back when we have really small sample sizes and try to just look at the
16:50situation objectively rather than look at, oh, this guy was really good for four games. It doesn't feel like a good process. So, I think ultimately it'd be
16:58dumb to fade Luther Burton this year completely. Right now in Vegas, he actually has the highest receiving yardage prop among himself, Roma Dunay,
17:06and Coulson Lovelin. All those numbers, by the way, are included in our rankings in our draft guide. You'll see all the
17:11player props as well as a ton of different little like tiebreaker pieces of information that you can use to help decide between players when you are
17:17drafting or if you want to just browse and do your research ahead of time.
17:20Those are up right now. So, you have Ben Johnson, one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, who handpicked Luther
17:26Burden, who used him a lot down the stretch last year, who just got rid of their other top target at wide receiver
17:31in DJ Moore. We're expecting the offense to take a jump. Vegas likes Luther Burton as much if not more than these
17:36other weapons here. So ultimately, I'm not like over the moon about Luther Burden's talents, but again, I think it'd be kind of dumb to fade him in
17:44terms of him turning into a wide receiver. One, I think we've seen guys like Debo Samuel who are not like the
17:49normal alphas, who are not the typical like Jamar Chase, 160 targets, win all over the field type guys, have alpha seasons. Like Debo's 2021 season was a
18:00true alpha season in in fantasy football. And there's a handful of head coaches or offensive coordinators that I think are creative enough and good
18:06enough to unlock that type of player in an offense. Kyle Shanahan did it with Debo. Ben Johnson is one of those types
18:12of minds that I think can do with Luther Burton. Ultimately, the score for Burden is going to be a 5.5 out of 10. So, not
18:18super high on him, not super low on him.
18:20I think you can play this however you want. I think if you love Burden, there are a lot of stats and a lot of upside
18:25cases for you to harp on. I think if you don't love Luther Burden, I think there's the target competition. There's a small sample size. There's a look what
18:32he did in the playoffs kind of thing.
18:34There's a he's not an incredible like separator versus man conversation. So, that's kind of where I land with uh Luther Burden. And I'm I'm definitely
18:41not out on Roma Dunes either. It's funny because I think when you look at Roma Dun and Amecha Ibuka, their storylines
18:48are quite similar last year. When I started just writing the numbers down on paper, if you guys remember, like if you
18:53drafted Roma Dunay last year, early on he was incredible. From weeks one through four, I have the numbers up here. Almost nine targets a game, five
19:02catches, 74 receiving yards, and five touchdowns within those first four games. Wide receiver, three overall in fantasy up to that point. Suffers a foot
19:10injury in week five. Shout out to Drake.
19:12Nothing was the same for the rest of the season. Similar to Amecha Ibuka loses the most targeted player on the offense
19:19this off seasonason in DJ Moore. Amecha Ibuka. When you look at the numbers, very similar weeks 1 to five before the
19:24hamstrings strain. 7.6 six targets, five receptions per game, 89 yards, five touchdowns, suffers a hamstring strain in week six. Nothing was the same going
19:33forward. Loses the the best player on their offense, the most targeted player on their offense in Mike Evans. Very similar storylines. Roma Dun has the,
19:41you know, the foot issue, the chronic foot issue right now that, you know, people are kind of losing their minds over like, you know, it's it's the new
19:47normal for him that he has to deal with this foot thing. It's not an injury per se. He just says he's got to operate
19:53differently in terms of how he runs on his foot, which is obviously not great to hear. I just don't know how how many
19:58like easy targets we're going to see for Roma Dunay. He's he's more of a downfield playmaker in this offense.
20:03He's more of a a red zone threat. He's not like, you know, he he's not going to play the Aman Ross St. Brown role in the
20:08Ben Johnson offense. I think we saw like most of the time with Ben Johnson during his time in Detroit, his most valuable
20:14targets were going to Aman Rah, who was more like Luther Burton and Sam Leaporta who was the Coulson Leland in this
20:20offense. So, I think Rome's probably being a little bit disrespected just because of how good he is as a player.
20:25And if Caleb Williams does take that third-year leap where he goes from, you know, 37 3800 passing yards up to like
20:31the perennial 4,500 passing yard type of guy, Rome's probably going to have a pretty good year with that. So, I think
20:36if you're one of those people that like loves to harp on the small sample size with Ibuka, loves to harp on the small
20:41sample size with Luther Burton, you should probably weigh that into the spectrum for Roman Dunay as well because you could find that within his profile.
20:48Do I think he finishes as a wide receiver one? Probably not. I put him at a 4.5 out of 10. So, don't love him.
20:54Don't hate him either, but he's definitely not a full fade like I think he is for some people. Wide receiver 29,
20:58Christian Watsteain over there in Green Bay. Just signed a 4-year 92.3 million deal. Can get up to 110 with incentives.
21:08Uh, I have a tough time with Christian Watson. He is so inconsistent.
21:11Everything that you like about him has come basically within two small sample sizes at the end of his rookie year and
21:17at the end of last year and that has basically kept him afloat and and what a time for one of those small sample sizes
21:22to hit at the end of last year to kind of earn him that contract. He has been in the league for four years at this
21:28point and he has never topped 620 receiving yards in a full season. That's that's hard to believe man. You do now
21:35have a more consolidated target share in Green Bay. Romeo Dobs, who's been the top target guy for Jordan Love over the
21:41last handful of years, is gone.
21:43Dantavian Wixs is gone. Tucker Craft is working his way back from a serious tear in his knee. Whether or not he starts on
21:49the pup list, we'll have to see. I think the pairing of Jordan Love's arm with Christian Watson just makes a ton of
21:54sense. They looked great together last year, you know, Love just wants to yuck it up there and Watson wants to fall
21:59underneath it. I think he's a great fit for Laflur's offense. I think this is a pretty uh interesting tweet from Jacob
22:05Rick Road, who I also think is a really good follow on Twitter. If you're not following him for fantasy stuff, these
22:10are the wide receivers with the most statistically similar career starts to Christian Watson. You have VJ Jackson and Santana Moss on there. It's just,
22:17you know, players who through four, three, four years like really didn't have anything going for him and then might have broken out for a year or two.
22:26VJS obviously became a perennial thousand yard receiver and Santana Moss was more of like an underneath slot guy.
22:32I would say Watson's a tough one to buy to be like VJX cuz VJX was so much more of a possession receiver like a you know
22:38a stronger body guy where Watson's play I think really lives and dies with variance. His A dot last year was 17.8
22:47yards downfield. That was third highest in the entire NFL. So I think when you have an A dot like this, which is just
22:54what Christian Watson is as a player, you simply have to live and die with the variance. Some years the deep balls will
22:59be more accurate than others and some years they won't be. And and that's the thing with fantasy football is like we
23:04we try to project on these small sample sizes. They play 16 17 games a season.
23:08So three inches an inch on this play, an inch on this play, an inch on this play is the difference between Christian
23:14Watson having 550 yards and four touchdowns and him having 800 yards and and seven touchdowns. So again, the variance is just something you're going
23:23to have to live with on a week-by-eek basis if you draft Christian Watson. So for me, if you're if you're going to try
23:29to project Kristen Watson for, you know, 130 140 targets, I I I think you're being unrealistic here. I think where I'd probably project him for targets,
23:37it's going to be hard for him to land in the top 12 at the end of the year. He's going to need too much luck, too much
23:43outlier type efficiency. Obviously, you know, in the 90th, 93rd, 97th percentile outcome in the volume and the type of targets he gets. Of course, it can end
23:51up landing there. But overall, when I look at Christian Watson, I I don't see him that differently than I see the
23:56outlook for like a Brian Thomas Jr. this year. They're similar players. They're field stretchers. I think their volume projection is going to be somewhere in
24:02like the five to seven targets per game.
24:05They're both attached to above average offenses. And I think Christian Watson more so just has recency bias working in his favor where Brian Thomas Jr. is the
24:13other way around. So ultimately, I got Christian Watson at a four out of 10.
24:17And the last player being picked within the first 30 wide receivers in drafts right now is the rookie Carnell Tate out
24:25in Tennessee. A top five pick in the NFL draft this year. Haven't talked much about Carnell Tate right now. Very interesting landing spot. Ton of
24:34turnover in Tennessee. Obviously attached to the number one overall pick in the draft and Cam Ward last year.
24:40Before I jump into Carnell Tate, make sure you hit the button that looks like this if you enjoy the video. We're going
24:45to be dropping videos like this all summer long. All right, so if you're getting prepped for your fantasy draft, make sure you subscribe to the channel.
24:51And if you just want the good stuff, head over to bdge.co. Sign up for the fantasy membership. So if we look back
24:57to 2010, the last 15, 16, 17 years, whatever, here are the receivers that were drafted in the top five. We've got
25:04Marvin Harrison Jr., we've got Jamar Chase, we've got Cory Davis, we've got Amari Cooper, we've got Sammy Watkins, Justin Blackman, and AJ Green. For the
25:14most part, all of them have given you really solid floors. Jamar Chase obviously had the ceiling, but for, you know, all intents and purposes, most of
25:21them were within the wide receiver 20 to 30 range, which is about where Carnell Tate is being drafted. Overall, I love
25:27the pick for Cam Ward. You have this guy that you invested the number one overall pick in, and now we need to put as many
25:32playmakers and weapons around him. They signed Wandell Robinson. They drafted Carnell Tate. Now you're asking Calvin Ridley to be the number three in your
25:40offense, which I think at this point in his career is what's best suited for him. You bring in Brian Dable to be the
25:45offensive coordinator, which I really, really like. So, a lot of moves on the offense here. I still have major concerns about the offensive line here,
25:51especially the interior, and that's kind of like the biggest scare for me cuz I think when you look at Cam Ward, like
25:56there wasn't a lot of good film last year. There were there were a lot of good individual plays on film where
26:01you're like, "Oh, I see the upside, the athleticism, the playmaking ability, but there was very little consistency." And I think a lot of that had to do with
26:09one, he's always trying to make the big play, but two, the offensive line just continuously collapsed around him. And I don't think they have a good enough
26:16offensive line progressing into like a top tier unit for me to feel that much better about Cam Ward's, you know, pocket collapsing. So I I think Carninal
26:24Tate's a great prospect, incredible hands, very strong route runner, separator versus man coverage. Not going to give you a ton in terms of the the
26:32yak department, but I think that's probably more for Well Robinson. targets over the middle of the field. And this was an interesting nugget here of
26:39players who have averaged fewer than four receptions a game in their college career that were drafted in the first round. Obviously, it's important to put
26:46a ton of context behind Carell Tate and why the volume wasn't there because he's playing with arguably the best group of
26:51receivers in college at Ohio State over the last decade of of any school there.
26:55So, when you're competing against Marvin Harrison Jr. and you know the Chris Alaves, the Garrett Wilsons of the world, the Jackson Smith and Jigbas,
27:01like those types of guys, the guys that become alphas in the NFL, not everyone's going to catch eight eight balls a game
27:07in college. But when you look at the guys who did end up succeeding that were first round picks averaging fewer than
27:12four receptions per game, Rody White, Dwayne Bo, Dearius Thomas, Odell Beckham, DJ Moore, Jaylen Wadd. I probably should have highlighted a few
27:18more guys on this list like Brian Thomas Jr., Jameson Williams for sure, Brandon Iayuk, but y'all get the point. The ones
27:24that didn't end up succeeding I think were like the speedsters, the field stretchers, the John Ross', the Brashad Parammans, Philip Dorset, Henry Rugs,
27:32Ted Gin, Darius Hayward Bay, Carninal Tate is way more Rody White, way more DJ Moore, way more possession, can be a
27:40number one than he is those like pure field stretchers. So, I'm not overly concerned about it. I think he'll immediately battle Wel Robinson for the
27:46team lead in targets. And I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities for him to to be a top 15, top 12
27:52receiver out the gate just given the draft capital, but it's really going to come down to whether or not Cam Ward
27:56takes a massive secondyear leap. Like I think Cam Ward would have to go from, you know, QB 28 29 last year up to
28:05quarterback 15 or 12. Again, not out of the range of outcomes, but I think a more projectable leap would probably be
28:10like somewhere in the early 20s, maybe like quarterback 18, 19, 20. And I think that would make it hard for Carl Tate to
28:16actually make his way into the top 12.
28:19As we saw earlier, Jamar Chase was the only guy that met the other criteria that finished his top five guy and he
28:24had Joe Burrow there. So ultimately, I'm scoring Cornell Tate as a four out of 10, maybe 3.5 out of 10. We'll leave him
28:31at a four out of 10 for this exercise.
28:34And that will wrap up this video for y'all. Again, head over to MGM. Use code BDGE when you deposit for the first
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