0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. From Lowe's, official partner of the NFL.
0:04Amazon Health AI presents Painful Thoughts. Why did I search the internet for answers to my cold sore problem?
0:10Now I'm stuck down a rabbit hole filled with images of alarmingly graphic sores in various stages of ooze.
0:15I can clear my search history, but I can never unsee that.
0:19Don't go down the rabbit hole. Amazon Health AI gets you the right care, fast.
0:23Healthcare just got less painful. JJ Zacharyarysen is, as he puts it, a season-long bro at Establish the Run who previously did work with NBC Sports.
0:31He's now tied for the most appearances on Late-Round Perspectives, too.
0:34He enjoys cooking, gardening, golf, long-distance running, and having no hair.
0:38These are his Late-Round Perspectives. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
0:41We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't-miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever.
0:48$20 million in total prizes. It's draft one, get one.
0:51Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
0:56Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
1:00Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
1:06Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
1:10The crown is yours. If you had to replace one hand with a kitchen utensil, what would you choose?
1:16I feel as if I use a wooden spoon or spatula the most because it can both mix and flip.
1:22Is there supposed to be a better answer than that?
1:24No, I mean, like you got to think you're replacing your hand with a utensil.
1:29So your hand, like your everyday life would be replaced with this thing.
1:33You're just thinking about cooking, I feel like. Why?
1:35Didn't you mention a kitchen utensil? Yeah, it's a kitchen utensil, but you got to go through life with this thing.
1:42Whatever you want to choose. Would a fork be the most obvious answer?
1:45Yeah, maybe like a big fork. What is your answer?
1:48Because no one asks this question unless they're ready to give their answer.
1:52If you had to teach a master class on something completely random, what would it be?
1:57About my passion or an expertise I don't have but want to?
2:00Anything. Something random. Gardening, if it's my passion. Or cooking.
2:03If I'm just gaining knowledge, a master class on what's at the bottom of the ocean.
2:08Can I just teach a class about what's in the ocean?
2:11Because that's what I'm like most obsessed with. That's a very boomer thing.
2:15What's your go to karaoke song? It depends on the vibe.
2:19There's like legitimately seven of them. If it's a small room, I'll do Clint Eastwood by Gorillas.
2:24If it's like a party where everyone's ready to cheer, I'll do OPP, Naughty by Nature.
2:28I rap a lot in karaoke because obviously this accent is just great for rapping.
2:33So, okay. So I had to do that. I had to open that way because the last time you were on Perspectives,
2:39it was quite literally the worst cold open in the history of cold opens.
2:43You remember that? No. What was it? I literally opened it up and go, hey, Daigle.
2:48Hey. That's essentially what it was. Just like, hey.
2:51And then there's just a very awkward pause. So I needed to come in with some fire today.
2:56So I used my handy AI to come up with some questions.
3:00And what's more fire than asking me if I would like a fork attached to my hand for the rest of my life?
3:06No, no one does that. They can't do that.
3:09It's interesting content. It's just great content. It's good.
3:12Good to see you, brother. I'm going to see you more this weekend.
3:16Yeah, you're going to unfortunately see me a lot for the next week.
3:19Yes. And recall last year because we live two completely different lifestyles, especially when we get around our friends.
3:25More importantly, I recall last year I come stumbling into the Hall of Fame in Canton at like, I don't know, 11 noon.
3:32That's a respectable part. But you asked me about my what I did the night before I told you and your response was, quote, are you an adult?
3:40So that's what we're in store for this weekend at the Fantasy Football Expo.
3:44Yeah, I mean, I think you were up playing poker until like 5 a.m.
3:48or something the night before. I know my I know my red flag, by the way.
3:53I like no one has to tell me what it is.
3:56It's for some reason I have controlled. I have honed my energy and a lot of circumstances in life when I'm around my friends.
4:03I cannot control it. I bounce everywhere. I just go on their vibe regardless if it's 8 a.m.
4:09or 10 p.m. I wish I could do better, but I'm 38 years old now and I haven't been able to contain it.
4:15I feel you know I'm actually I do feel you.
4:18I get a lot of of energy from like like when I'm around people that I like being around.
4:24It's it's just like infectious and I can't really like like chill.
4:28Like I went to New York City at the beginning of June with my closest high school buddies and it was just
4:34like like four hours of sleep a night. And, you know, just so much fun just to be with them.
4:40So those kind of trips to are also more rare as we get older, which is why exactly to make them happen.
4:46They just truly rejuvenate you even for like we are grateful to do this for a career, but it even rejuvenates us
4:53for the next six months of our lives to see those group of people for once a year in my case.
4:59Agreed. Yeah, no, I agreed. Agreed. That's the other thing too.
5:02Like I like we are we're lucky to do what we do just as like a baseline, but it's also just cool
5:09that like we get to do shows with and stuff with each other all the time and like like just do that kind of stuff like work together.
5:17But then we also get to like we have this thing now every year we get we at least get to see
5:24each other at least once a year, you know through this and you know, you grow relationships through doing that.
5:30But it's also just like I don't know. I don't think a lot of industries and jobs allow for those relationships to
5:36like blossom and it's like crazy to think about but like we've literally met like hundreds of people through doing this that
5:43were like that we could probably just DM or just text or something and be like, hey, you want to do extra.
5:49X, Y, Z and then be like, yeah, I'm not.
5:52It's just it's crazy that that's that's how this is all has all come together.
5:56Even two weekends from now, I'm going to New York for the flex drafts that the athletics Jake Seeley host and we
6:03have text there is going right now trying to vote on what we're going to do Friday and Saturday evening.
6:09That's how that's how it just happens to happen.
6:12And, you know, I've talked about some other shows.
6:14I don't know if I've mentioned this on with you ever, but as someone who was adopted found family is something I
6:21not only believe in, but it's kind of happened.
6:23And where I've gone, like the city of Chicago, my parents adopted me, the city of Chicago adopted me, my friends in life adopted me.
6:31And so I do sternly believe in that. And that's kind of what's happened with you, Rich Rebar, like people who we
6:37all have our own, you know, group of close friends we grew up with.
6:41But then there's another group of people that I would still call like my very good, if not best friends.
6:47And that's what I consider y'all. And we just happen to meet along the way because of this lovely industry.
6:53Yeah, yeah, it's great. And that's another reason why people should head to the Fantasy Football Expo if they're if they're able to.
7:00All right, let's talk some ball. You've been on the show plenty.
7:03We don't need to talk about your past and all that kind of stuff unless you want to get really, really deep.
7:10I think we're good. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. We're about to get into training camp, which means we're going to get a lot
7:16of best shape of their lives reporting. And the question, though, that I think is important that we get through and we
7:23talk about is what are the things that you are looking at this time of year from beat reports, from from anything
7:29out of camp, you know, videos from camp, what have you that could end up being actionable that actually might matter a little bit.
7:37What I'm not looking for is what's happening right now in this final low week before all the veterans report.
7:42And that is speculation. The most recent example is I'm not saying names, but, you know, one one team's reporter then has
7:49a report on the usage of the backfield of an entirely different team just because they're in state.
7:54Not interested whatsoever. Not going to move a single thing and wish it had not come on my timeline at all.
8:00What I'm really looking for is actual usage from camp personnel is a big one, but most importantly, the actual depth chart.
8:07And that includes for, you know, zero RB targets for wide receiver two, since we're all speculating and assuming there's going to
8:13be more multi Titan sets in 2026, just given the death of the wide receiver three.
8:18That's what I want. I want your actual reports from camp.
8:21I do not care about guesses about usage and speculation.
8:24I want the hard facts. Yeah, it's really hard right now.
8:28I mean, not only that, but like right now there's been reports coming out that just completely contradict other reports that came out a week prior.
8:35You know what I mean? And, you know, we have to at least be logical that like the most recent report is not necessarily the best report.
8:43And, you know, I'm not saying that another report is better necessarily.
8:47We just don't know right now, but it's true.
8:50You know, like where guys line up and where they're where they're getting reps.
8:54You know, there's been some like Romeo Dobbs in the slot type talk.
8:57Like that's important. Like that's something I care about.
9:00You know, like I'm I'm interested in that. I'm interested to see if Dontavian Wicks is out there in two wide sets
9:07consistently, you know, and it's, you know, with Makai Lemon being healthy, hopefully, you know, be at full strength.
9:12And if Wicks is still playing ahead or whatever that looks like as the as training camp goes like that's that signal that's something.
9:19So do you think that you fall victim? Because I mean, I think everyone probably does to a degree of, you know,
9:26just confirmation bias type stuff that goes on in camp.
9:29And are there any things that you do to like make sure, you know, that doesn't happen?
9:34Like, you know, for instance, there might be a player that you like that's just like very athletic.
9:39And we know that in this kind of environment, athleticism might flash a little bit more.
9:44It might be a little bit better. Are you in general ignoring the stuff more than accepting it?
9:49The reports or are you really trying to accept a decent bit because there's just so much variance in this game?
9:55I'm sure I've unfortunately been stubborn with a handful of players every year, but I do think there is some type of
10:02intelligence and being stubborn for the right reasons as long as the process is correct.
10:06Because even something as simple as this is just one example, but you mentioned even if we get reports, which I'm which
10:13I'm even expecting that Dontavian Wicks is initially in two wide receiver sets.
10:17It's also hard for projections to capture that because the way we grade out Makai Lemon, his profile in this offense, we
10:23also don't expect them to lose out to Dontavian Wicks long term.
10:27And so I'm then asking myself, how can I take advantage of one month, if at all, of Dontavian Wicks being in two wide receiver sets?
10:34So there's a lot of nuance. I think mostly, though, you saw it in A.J.
10:39Brown's ADP in best ball, for example, that although we knew all reports came in two months prior that he was going
10:45to be traded on June 1st, the market had not reacted.
10:49Maybe that's because I think this year actually people join best ball outside of the people who talk about it every single
10:55day a little bit later in the season. And good for them.
10:59Go outside. It's summer. We get like three months of it because our earth is dying.
11:03Go enjoy it. That's OK. But we saw the market then react by like a two round cost once he was actually traded.
11:10And so these are just moves that happen that we can take advantage of.
11:14But for the most part, I practice JOMO, the joy of missing out.
11:18I don't have many strengths in life, but one of them is making sure I take in all the information and then
11:25somehow spitting 99% of it out and knowing that this won't matter.
11:28So, yeah. Like I said, I try not to be stubborn, but there are times where I definitely purposely am.
11:34You kind of mentioned best ball there. I have had this sort of take.
11:38I kind of tweeted about it the other day as well.
11:41But do you think that best ball is sort of seeped into season long analysis a little bit too much?
11:47And I guess my follow up to that would be what do you think the key differences are between someone listening to
11:54this right now who's only a season long player, which honestly is the majority of people listening to this right now, not playing best ball.
12:01What are the differences and what they can maybe even listen to as we as we talk about or anyone talks about this stuff on on their podcast?
12:09You know, like what what are the key differences between best ball and season long in your opinion?
12:15I'm actually more excited to get your opinion on this, given that you are now officially a best ball bro.
12:21But I think the biggest one is usable weeks, usable scores, whereas in season long really don't care about usable scores.
12:27Like if I draft a player even from the third round on that simply meets expectations, I'm not happy with that.
12:33I'm always trying to exceed the expectations that ADP has set for that player, whereas best ball, even Mike Leone wrote it
12:40in his best ball manifesto at Establish the Run.
12:42The worst thing you can do is take a zero like with those last round picks that everyone's speculating on sixth and
12:49seventh round players that most likely won't even make special teams for their own organizations.
12:53The worst thing you can do is lose out.
12:56And I say that as someone who had Roshon Johnson over Kalman guy everywhere in best ball last year and those zeros
13:02of Manung guy was getting the touches in the last month of the season.
13:06Absolutely killed me. So that is the thing that I am most cautious about in particular.
13:11Yeah, I think it's a great point. I've said this before, too, where I said on the show, I just recorded actually,
13:18but like someone like Chris Rodriguez, I actually care a lot more about him in best ball than I do in season long.
13:24I don't I don't want a guy who I know more than likely, you know, 90 percent outcome is more than likely
13:31not going to be much of a pass catcher or like a huge league winner.
13:35But he can definitely beat costs and he can definitely get work and it might be unpredictable work.
13:41We don't have to worry about that in best ball.
13:44And so like it's this really odd dichotomy where I think the the average best ball player or at least like the
13:50newer best ball player assumes that when you're in the late rounds, you're you're aiming for ceiling.
13:55Like you're you're just throwing these darts where you're like, I can see an outcome where this guy really beast modes and he's he's awesome.
14:03And he you know, you get a 15th round pick that ends up being the equivalent of a fourth round pick.
14:09But realistically, yeah, sure. I mean, that would be great.
14:12But you know that the odds of that happening is so low.
14:15You should be doing that more in season long because you can make up for that mistake, that inevitable mistake with the
14:22late round pick versus in best ball. You actually kind of just want to buy points late in your draft.
14:28Like you just want guys who, you know, I'm not saying ignore all the handcuffs and ignore.
14:33But what I am saying is like, I do think it's important to make sure that you are covering your bases with
14:39with each position that you're getting some production from those guys that you are drafting late.
14:44It's a different game from that perspective. I also, though, think like like when you, you know, because like you kind of
14:50have to toe the line where with what you do at ETR especially.
14:54But if you're consuming content or seeing how people are talking about season long on social media, are you like of the
15:01belief that we have been to like best ball brained at this point?
15:05Like it's too there's too much emphasis on what's going on in the best ball markets.
15:09And there's not enough emphasis of what's going on in like the home league market or like the ESPN or the Yahoo market.
15:16Yes, but I don't blame that on anyone. That's just all we've had to react to so far.
15:21You even see sleepers ADP, for example, finally starting to move as people just begin their season long drafts.
15:27I am also now have some late rookie drafts and startups going on.
15:31So everyone's tuning back in now. Now we can finally start talking about season long ADP, which is, you know, given best
15:37ball, which you've talked about, I've talked about, we've all talked about in other shows.
15:42Best ball this year in particular, it continues the ADP to differ greatly every single season.
15:47The margin becomes much wider this year. It's so much wider because of the surge in quarterback ADP, whereas even the QB
15:53two, sometimes the QB three is like Fernando Mendoza, for example, and Aaron Rodgers.
15:57Like they're going in the, you know, 12th through 14th round.
16:00That's just not going to happen in a one QB, even super flex league.
16:05So that's what makes it so different is that ADP now is wild.
16:08But again, that's all we've had to talk about so far, at least with FFPC and FFC finally rolling on and becoming more popular.
16:15Now we can start talking about the season long chase.
16:18Yeah, I agree. I think it's on us though, too, to, to make sure we're being clear, you know, and saying like,
16:25Hey, this is, this is based on best ball ADP.
16:28But like, I saw your good example. I saw your tweet.
16:31Sorry to cut you off by the way. And you know, the ego on all of us immediately asked ourselves, is he talking about me?
16:38Yeah, exactly. I started thinking about segments I've done the last like month is like, did I, did I differentiate ADP?
16:45I don't know. Yeah, I love, I love sending those vague tweets out.
16:49And then like, like Harmon responded and was like, you could have just told me this through text or something like that.
16:55But like, like, and it's, it's fair. Like I'm not, I'm not quite literally, I'm not calling anyone out whenever I say that.
17:02I mean that as in like, I do it sometimes we all do it sometimes where like, like, if I'm going to
17:08talk about a guy's price, I want to be sure that I'm being specific about where that price is because we have so many game types now.
17:16And even on the difference between the big platforms, like Sleeper is still very influenced by Dynasty right now.
17:22If you look at their, like I've seen videos from people like on TikTok or wherever, where they're talking about RJ Harvey being a round five pick.
17:30And it's like, he's not a round five pick in any normal league.
17:34Like it's just not happening. And so you're straw manning this, right?
17:37Like you're just, you're making it like, I don't like RJ Harvey in round five either.
17:42Like, but I, I don't mind him in round eight because I'm only looking for upside there.
17:47And the opportunity costs is the, the equation completely shifts, you know?
17:51And so like, those are the examples, like Devon H.
17:54And another one where in best ball, he goes later than where he's going to go in your home league.
17:59You know, like your home, like ESPN, I think he's ranked, I think his ADP is RB five.
18:05Right. And in best ball, it's like RB 10.
18:07And so that is a significant, significant difference when you're talking about the early parts of your draft.
18:13And so if the fantasy analyst out there is like, Hey, everyone's calling a Devon H.
18:17And a fade, but that's ridiculous because he's the, you know, I just got him at RB 11.
18:23It's like, okay, but there are areas and platforms and, you know, season long formats and, you know, home leagues and such
18:29where he's going to go RB five, RB six, where like that's, that's, you know, RB 11 short.
18:35Like, I think I have him ranked as like RB 10.
18:38And I still listed him as a player to avoid in the draft guide because there are these places in these spots where he goes RB five.
18:46And so I think that's where we, as a, as a group of analysts, you know, just need to be smart and
18:52smarter about how we talk about the cost of these guys.
18:56You know, at least be a little bit more detailed and nuanced with it.
19:00I also think we, we have a, having done this for, for gosh, so long now we have a good, we have
19:06our finger on the pulse of guessing which way ADPs will go.
19:10Because home leagues in particular, like the hate usually goes really far and the love it's vice versa.
19:15So Christian McCaffrey, although his ADP, you know, is five, six, you could easily see situations where he's drafted two or three over Bijan Robinson over Pukunakua.
19:23And so I also do like playing the guessing game and that to make sure when I write and talk about players
19:29that at least for home leagues, the people that are listening are either ahead or behind based on those guesses.
19:35Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is why in the end, like if I'm being totally transparent, like I don't love the players
19:42to target and avoid areas of my draft guide because I, I think every, you know, you can look at the rankings and come up with them yourselves.
19:50Like you can just look at where I have guys ranked and tiered to see like who I generally am high or low on.
19:57To me, it's just like extra content and extra context for people to, to see how I feel about certain players.
20:03But one platform to another one draft to another, I just think it's getting messier and messier every year with best ball becoming as big as it's gotten.
20:12And with all these other iterations of games and all these different platforms, like the other thing too, is that like these
20:18other platforms, like an ESPN will have other game types now too.
20:22That's just making it more convoluted, you know, where it's like, it isn't as simple as there's a consensus ADP that we,
20:28even if there's websites that are pulling consensus, the sites themselves are getting their ADP information via different games.
20:34Like I said, with sleeper, like it's still like, seems like there's still a dynasty influence with a lot of, of the
20:40way that, that, that ADP has shaped up. Right.
20:43And like, or there could be some influence. I have no idea with like some of these bigger platforms and some of
20:50the other game types that they're throwing out there.
20:52We have no, we, like, we don't have the transparency to that.
20:56So we're only working with what we can work with and hopefully the context, you know, that's why I think there needs
21:02to be more context, but hopefully that context can help people.
21:05I think the, you know, the way things go in, in clicks and views, kind of deciding what we do, I think
21:12it's going to differentiate mightily this year. Like in August, if you put out a best ball draft versus a super flex
21:18mock, you come back and you tell me which one has 50,000 more views.
21:23And I guarantee you it's going to be the super flex mock.
21:26Yeah. Yeah. You're definitely not wrong. There's also been some discussion recently on, on social media about the running back dead zone.
21:33Now I kind of retired from talking about it last year, just because for me, it became like, became a little bit too dumbed down in a way.
21:41But I guess my question to you is, do you think that the dead zone right now is still alive and well?
21:47And how are you defining that too? That's always the part that gets me is that some of these concepts and some
21:54of the reasons why I've kind of like shifted away from them is because they've, they've become so watered down in how we define them.
22:01Um, and so I'm just curious how you're like viewing the running back dead zone, like how you define it.
22:07And if you think it's, it's alive and well, Well, I wish you came back to fighting the good fight because, uh,
22:14now I don't think I've seen anyone mention like the premise, the, the statue that fancy douche and Sean Siegel, Ben Gretch,
22:20uh, I believe was part of it too. Once built the running back dead zone on now, everyone just says that's a dusty veteran who we don't trust.
22:28That's where the dead zone starts. Whereas like we are, should be looking, the dead zone started because hit rates were significantly
22:35less in that range compared to later rounds. Thus the dead zone then ended whenever the hit rates got higher.
22:41Uh, and you know, for drafting on buckets, as opposed to individually nitpicking, this is a veteran who I don't trust.
22:47We're just going to most likely do better because we're taking a big picture outlook with our draft.
22:52And so, um, the, the last couple of years, ADP has actually been fairly accurate in points per game, always points per game, by the way.
23:00Always. Uh, and that's just because running backs have stayed healthy.
23:03Uh, even like Javante Williams in the eighth round last year is the only RB one.
23:08He finished top 12 in points per game is the only RB one who was drafted outside the third round these last
23:15two years, because again, everyone stayed healthy. In 2023 though, so you only have to go back a couple seasons, the hits
23:21included undrafted Kyron Williams as the RB two, both Raheem Mostert and Devon Achan in the 10th round as the RB four and RB five under Mike McDaniel.
23:29And over the last two years, the RB 13 through 24.
23:33So an RB two that you can start literally every week consistently has averaged a sixth round ADP 38% of RB two
23:39is drafted from the seventh round on the past couple of years as well.
23:43So in my opinion, just based on the last two years and again, um, maybe the health of starting running backs pushed you out of this conversation.
23:51It seems the line seems to be moving every single year, but at least based on health in the last couple of
23:58years, it does seem like rounds two through six are kind of where we're out on running backs.
24:03And that's not a hard plan, right? Like I still like players in that range, but really maybe we'll be getting to this later too.
24:10Like last year where I had a very good idea of how I wanted to draft again, always taking a big picture outlook this year.
24:18I do believe that third tier of wide receivers is how you win your fantasy leagues.
24:22And so personally, like if you're blocking me from grabbing four of those guys, I don't want you anyhow.
24:28And the running backs just happened to fit in that range this year, that dead zone, quote unquote.
24:33Yeah. I'm going to try to, I'm going to try to explain how I feel about this because yeah, because like it's,
24:40it's hard for me to articulate this, but if you think about draft strategy as like for, for the consensus and for
24:46the masses as a, uh, on a scale from zero to a hundred, where zero is like a very, very running back heavy approach.
24:53And a hundred being zero RB. Right. And, and, and, and if you think year to year, the way that the consensus
25:00views things, okay, it'll be on a scale from zero to a hundred, like back in 2016, it was like 90.
25:06Cause people were going zero RB. They were talking about it a lot.
25:10And like, it was a very, you know, more common type thing.
25:14But then this year, maybe it's like 10 to 20 because people are more running back heavy and they're, they're going that direction more frequently.
25:21The way I always have viewed draft strategy and fantasy football has been more so in like the 30 to 70 range,
25:27you know, like every year it's all it's, it's never been so extreme.
25:31Cause I don't think that the, even the NFL meta changes.
25:35Yes. They're it's changing fantasy football. It's changing the way we do things.
25:38But I think it's just so easy to overstate what that all really means.
25:42And like, you know, the way that people are talking about how running backs are getting drafted so much earlier this year,
25:49it's, they're really not getting drafted that much earlier this year.
25:52You know, like that notion has more to do with the fact that analysts are out there who are typically zero RB
25:59analysts, and maybe they're coming and seeing the light a little bit more.
26:03And they're now drafting running backs earlier. And maybe it's all about the one, two turn.
26:07And that's, that's how people are really viewing this is that, you know, last year was all these wide receivers, the one, two turn.
26:14And we felt really good about the upside case for a lot of these wide outs, but this year it's all running backs.
26:21And so now we're going running back heavy, but I have it in the guide, like the first four rounds of drafts,
26:28we're drafting like one more running back year over year based on ADP, you know, like, like the first two rounds.
26:34It's like, it's like one or two, like, it's just not a significant enough difference.
26:38Right. And so I try to like, like, I do think draft strategy matters a ton, but I think draft strategy matters
26:45a ton for you to be nimble while your draft is happening.
26:48You know, for, for you to understand, oh, this is the way the draft is going down right now.
26:54Oh, I know that zero RB is an approach that I can take.
26:58I know that hero RB is an approach I can take.
27:01I know that, that going robust RB is an, is an approach I can take Brock Bowers here.
27:06And this is what this means. It's understanding what those strategies do to your overall team construction based on how the draft is going down.
27:14And that's why stuff like the running back dead zone to me has like, for, from my perspective and the kind of
27:20advice that I'm giving, I've tried to push it away a little bit more because number one, I do think the dead
27:27zone is sort of an archetype zone. Like there are guys that beat the dead zone consistently, but they're like, you know,
27:33the younger pass catchers that are more ambiguous because we don't know how talented they are.
27:38You know, like the, the year one, year two guys who find themselves in that range.
27:43They're pretty good bets. Usually the older guys are like the unproven guys who are in like year three or four, who
27:49just, you know, the Alexander Madison's of the world when he was in the dead zone or like Zamir White, which, you
27:56know, we, I remember, uh, famously us just destroying Zamir White on this very show.
28:00Your first perspectives episode that you did a couple years ago.
28:03You have to learn your lesson. Every, everyone always does those cleanup episodes at the end of the year where these were on misses.
28:10These were my hits. Yeah. And I, I don't do those.
28:14I, I just expect everyone to trust me and understand that I will eventually talk and write about where I went wrong
28:20and right, but mostly where I went wrong. But honestly, like if you, if you chased Mike Davis, Alexander Madison, Kenyon Drake,
28:27Aaron Jones last year, like you just hadn't learned your lesson from one of the guys prior before.
28:32Like when, when we learn our lesson, that's what usually the next year we're like, okay, obviously we know what to look for.
28:39We know what to look for in Jerry and price now.
28:42Uh, sorry. I didn't want to knock him down there, but no, no, no, no, no.
28:47That's what we know. We know what the, we know the alarm that sounds.
28:51Yeah, it's true. And this is why, like, again, going back to like the running back dead zone conversation.
28:57It's, it's historically been this range, as you noted, that hit rates have been weaker versus what you're going to get two or three rounds later, right?
29:04The two or three rounds later, the hit rates for those guys are, are from a ceiling perspective, basically the same as
29:11what that's, that's what we had seen. And I'm seeing all this talk about how like Bayshall Tootin is a classic dead zone running back.
29:18And I just don't totally agree because that misses the point about the archetypes, right?
29:23And the, the, the archetypes in that range that listen to all the guys you just mentioned, none of them were like
29:29year two, year one, you know, just got a bigger workload type of situation.
29:33Like I would agree that like a Bayshall Tootin is going earlier than where he ever would have gone, you know, in
29:40the past in terms of like what he is, his situation.
29:43Like to me, Bayshall Tootin and Chris Rodriguez, this is Chase Brown, Zach Moss part two, in my opinion, where like you could, you could choose.
29:51It's an ambiguous backfield, but we're seeing the bigger gap exist between the upside player and the floor player.
29:56Whereas the floor player back then was Zach Moss and the upside player was the day three Chase Brown.
30:02Right. And so the difference to me is that the market's gotten a little bit sharper with some of this stuff.
30:08Like I, in my opinion, I think Ramondre would be going ahead of Travion Henderson three or four years ago, you know,
30:15just, just based on like general performance, but people are understanding the upside cases.
30:19And it makes our jobs a lot more difficult to sift through and find players that we really don't like at ADP
30:25because the market is just generally getting sharper. And so when it comes to the dead zone, I think that there are
30:32definitely some players in there where I'm like, eh, yeah, it's kind of a dead zone kind of profile overall.
30:38But then at the same time, I think two things are happening where after the dead zone's over, we don't have as
30:44quite as many choices of, of upside swings after that, just based on, you know, Brandon Godula did some really, really great
30:51work about where running back targets are essentially going.
30:53And the, the loss of the satellite back, basically the, the, the PPR scammers that we used to be able to direct
31:00Chris Thompson's of the world that we could just get in round 12 and lean on them.
31:05They don't really exist anymore. And so that's kind of made that range of the draft not be as conducive to getting good value at running back.
31:13And so that makes the RB to range where the dead zone is like a little bit more enticing, but also I
31:19think the guys in the dead zone area are just not as dead zone necessarily.
31:24There's still some, but they're not as like, as, as obvious.
31:27Would you agree with that? Or do you, do you, do you still think that it's no different than like other seasons?
31:34I agree because even the individuals who I've been poking holes in all off season, I obviously see a way where they're
31:40an RB one and we're starting them weekly. Right.
31:43That's where they, where they don't drop out like the, the, the RB dead zone in the past.
31:48Right. But at the same time, again, when I'm looking at breakouts and those archetypes, I do think again, that third tier
31:55of wide receivers is where I'm, where I'm looking to target.
31:58And so these running backs are just kind of in my way.
32:01Also, this is why I, I wanted you to talk about this on this show with me because, uh, and I don't,
32:08I don't come on your show to, to compliment you here.
32:11I'm doing this because I genuinely think you're the best at breaking down like the archetypes we chase.
32:16I'll happily make fun of you along the way later.
32:19Don't worry about it, but, uh, you are the best at this.
32:23So I'm glad you input that, that input. Thank you.
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33:28Let's talk about that area. Like, when you say that there are players that you're poking holes in, but you can still see the upside case.
33:35Like, who are some of those players, some of those running backs?
33:39In terms of the consequential ADP, because no one cares if I'm fading like a 6-8 round running back, whatever.
33:45We can chase that later. I do think Kyron Williams is one of them that stands out.
33:50Last year, if you look at just like the splits pre and post-buy, because historically, remember, Sean McVay has leaned on what
33:56we've always said is, you know, running back with 90% of the team's touches.
34:00And through week seven, he did handle 74% of the Rams' backfield touches, 18 per game.
34:05But then afterwards, in his last 13 contests, including the postseason, it was only 60% of the team's touches.
34:11Not only that, but the guy behind him, Blake Corrin, he was then splitting with, led all running backs in success rate.
34:17And Kyron Williams, by the way, finished second in success rate.
34:20That's a Sean McVay stat, pretty much. But also, Blake Corrin finished second only to Devon Achan in their rates of 10-yard carries.
34:27So, if we're talking about now a backfield split and Kyron Williams is going at the second, third round turn, that's a
34:34player I can easily just get away from, personally.
34:36And then the other one, again, when you talk about not necessarily dropping out, but, you know, pleasing myself in the corner
34:43with an RB12 that finishes an RB14 or vice versa.
34:46But Javante Williams, it's kind of that same argument for me.
34:49The same argument I've been making for George Pickens, too, because they both hit career highs in practically every category.
34:55Javante Williams, it was his fifth year. But you would not have won your league at his current cost, the third round,
35:02since he finished his last year's RB12 in points per game.
35:05And now he's being drafted five rounds earlier around elite players.
35:08So, it's just a harder pill to swallow since the last thing I'm trying to do, we've discussed this already, and season
35:15long, is draft a player who will meet expectations.
35:17Yeah. I think that those are two very interesting call-outs, because you can see the path.
35:22They're in good environments. Like you noted, you can see the obvious way that that can go.
35:27And this is where I was talking about. It's hard to be a fantasy analyst.
35:31I mean, it's not hard to be a fantasy analyst, but you know what I'm saying.
35:36Like, we're not doing it. Guys, trust me. We know that we're not doing anything important here.
35:41But when it comes to being an analyst and trying to point out players that you're down on, Kyron Williams and Javante
35:48Williams are scary players for that to be the case.
35:51Even if I totally agree from a process standpoint, I've talked about Javante in particular, where like his receiving profile is horrendous.
35:57He was horrible per route run last year. And historically, that carries over really poorly.
36:01And it's one of those things where you sit here.
36:04It's similar to like how any other dead zone type discussion has gone in the past, where you sit there and you're
36:11like, well, who else is going to touch the ball?
36:14The instant you start doing that is the instant that you start to make excuses for that player.
36:19Because everything you should be doing should be focused on that player himself and how talented that player is.
36:25And with Javante Williams, you're sitting there like, well, Jaden Blue is didn't do anything last year.
36:30You know, Malik Davis didn't do much last year.
36:33Like, what is this going to look like from a pass catching perspective?
36:36But then there is like on paper, he is a dead zone running.
36:40Like he looks like a dead zone running. Another guy that I think looks like that is David Montgomery on paper.
36:46I don't have him as a fade because like, especially when I look at certain platforms, I'm actually like right in line with where they have them ranked.
36:55So I can't call them a fade. But certainly based on and we'll get to this in a second, too, because of the wide receiver stuff.
37:02But based on where he's going, I haven't drafted a ton of them.
37:06I haven't drafted a ton of Javante Williams and Kyron Williams, as you noted, because they do have those typical flags that
37:13we point out in the dead zone where like the receiving profile isn't super strong.
37:17Even Kyron, like the Rams talking to Brandon Gadula about this yesterday.
37:21The Rams consistently over the last like seven or eight years have been bottom three and running back target share year in and year out.
37:28They just do not use their running backs through the air.
37:31And Kyron has been, you know, he, I know that the, the, the, the masses out there, people listening to this, they're
37:38like, you guys talk down Kyron every year. And then he just comes out and he smashes.
37:43Well, he wasn't smashing the way you think he was smashing during the second part of the last season.
37:48It wasn't like so unbelievable that he was like, must have our top five running back.
37:53And so I do think that like the individual players here that we're talking about are players that do fit the archetype
38:00of a running back in the running back dead zone.
38:03The hard part is they're in objectively pretty good environments.
38:06You know, that's the hardest part for me to reconcile, but I agree with you.
38:10And, but to that point, there is an opportunity cost involved here.
38:14And this is where I think makes it easier to fade or to be more on the fade side, at least for
38:20me with, with some of these guys is the wide receivers in that area.
38:24We're looking at this like third to fifth round wide receiver range.
38:28We'll start with like, we'll say like Zay flowers, you know, like we're Chris Alave around there all the way to like Christian Watson.
38:35You seem to be into that range. I'm into that range.
38:38It's like, we had this range last year too, that I really were like Pickens was going and stuff where I was
38:45into, but this year it's even beefier. It's even, it's even more amazing.
38:48And so my question to you is who are your favorites from that range?
38:52And why is it that you're willing to take some of those guys over a Javante or a, you know, Montgomery, if
38:59you're in the, you know, if you're in the same camp with Montgomery or even a Kyron.
39:04If we're predicting 2027 ADP, it's mostly because these third round guys, I believe can exceed where they're being drafted and they've all flashed that ceiling for us.
39:12Uh, gosh, how much time do we have? But the list of these wide receivers, which is why again, I'm focusing my drafts around it entirely.
39:20Uh, let's start with Zay flowers. So you mentioned at the top there who to this point hasn't finished as a top
39:2624 wide receiver and points per game, mostly because of how he's been used.
39:31Uh, he's never had more than seven end zone targets in, in any of his seasons in his career.
39:36Baltimore also averaged the second fewest pass attempts the last decade, 24.8 last season and the six teams to average fewer than 27 attempts in that span.
39:44The last 10 years collectively increased their passes per game by 6.1 the following year.
39:49Uh, also not to mention a young and intuitive play caller we expect.
39:52And Declan Doyle, who comes from the Ben Johnson coaching tree.
39:56So I do think Zay flowers finally squinting and assuming I shouldn't just put this on him, assuming a different route tree
40:02that'll finally get used inside the red zone. I do think there is a chance for Zay flowers to also finally have
40:09a ceiling and bounce back with Lamar Jackson, who just had a, a seven year low in points per game.
40:15Not expecting that for him either. A Mecca Buka is the big one.
40:18I've been focusing my drafts around. You don't average, you know, 20 points per game as the top wide receiver for, for a six week stretch there.
40:26Unless you, unless you have a ceiling, it just doesn't go away like it did last year.
40:31And Godwin, Chris Godwin and Buka shared the field for 135 routes without Mike Evans last year.
40:36Evans who has since moved on to San Francisco at Buka led the team with a 31% target share, you know, despite the poor production in that opportunity.
40:45So I'm going back to a healthy Baker Mayfield and a Mecca Buka.
40:49Lad McConkie is a big one. Maybe we'll get to the charges and Justin Herbert later on, but McDaniels Dolphins led the
40:55league in their rate of dropbacks that included motion 69% of plays during his four year tenure there.
41:00And Lad McConkie for his career has averaged a 22 and a half percent target share from motion.
41:06Uh, for reference, he averaged a 22.9% target share for 15 points per game in 2024 his rookie year, which everyone then
41:12chased in the second round at last year's ADP.
41:15So I'm just going right back in a significantly improved offense.
41:18Terry McLaurin is another one under David Blau, who we now expect to go more under center or pass heavy and focus on Terry McLaurin.
41:25But more importantly, in 2024, without Devo Samuel, McLaurin had career high markers in end zone targets and points per game.
41:32Last year when Devo was injured, McLaurin was targeted on 30% of his routes, uh, the eighth highest rate in the league from Jane Daniels as well.
41:40So I'm backing on McLaurin. Jalen Waddle without Tyree kill from week five on led the league in air yards was targeted
41:46on 28% of his routes and was fifth in yards per route run.
41:50Uh, now I actually don't, I've seen, we talk about news that doesn't matter.
41:54The news aggregators are putting out there that Sean Payton has called Jalen Waddle is Joker, but like so far for Payton's
42:01tenure in Denver, Joker is short for, we won't give you the ball.
42:04So I don't like that at all, but Jalen Waddle on a per route basis was quite literally one of the best wide receivers in the league.
42:12Everyone just forgets because McDaniel was too busy scheming around all of two of his weaknesses as he fell apart last year.
42:19And then finally, just one more quick one, cause he's going to go a lot later than those guys.
42:25Mike Evans is being drafted around DJ Moore, who I also, I don't mind as much as like public consensus drowns out
42:31DJ Moore, but Mike Evans scored his fewest touchdowns in the last decade, just three last year because he played a career low eight games.
42:38Maybe that's happens again, but if healthy, at least we know Kyle Shanahan's offense has finished top nines and yards per attempt and every season since 2019.
42:46It's one of the best offenses in the league to chase.
42:50So if Evans is healthy, he's one of those guys like Will Fuller.
42:53I think when on the field will compete weekly to be a top 12 wide receiver when off the field.
42:59Uh, he, you at least know he tried to win your league when he was healthy.
43:04Right. Right. The crazy thing is you just went through like six or seven wide receivers and made the most obvious, you
43:11know, like I'm not, I'm not saying that the case that you made was obvious.
43:15I just mean that like you, the cases that you made show that there's an obvious ceiling with each of those guys.
43:22And there's still more in that range. Christian Watson obviously has a high ceiling.
43:26Luther Burden obviously has a high ceiling. Ted Rowe McMillan, like situation, I mean, situationally it's frightening, but him himself is a beast, right?
43:33Like there's all of these Garrett Wilson's in that range.
43:36And maybe the jets are a lot like, there's just so many good wide receivers in that area of your draft that
43:42it makes it so much easier to go, especially if you're in like the, the, the middle of your draft or like
43:49the wherever to go, RBRB pound wide receiver. And all of a sudden you're sitting with four really good wide receivers that
43:55have legit wide receiver one upside all while not having to worry about hitting these potential landmines in the dead zone of
44:02like, and we didn't even talk about like Travis ETN either where like there's some concern with that and what that could
44:08look like, but like some of them will be fine.
44:11Some of the running backs will hit. I just have moved towards more of the younger players in that range, the younger running backs.
44:18If I'm going to get a running back, the Tootins, you know, who's going later in season long than he is in best ball.
44:25Cam Scadaboo, I think is an interesting pick because I think if he weren't hurt, he'd be like a two, three turn
44:32type player instead of around four type player. But like, it's just so glaringly clear to me that those wide receivers are
44:38such good high upside bets when, especially like if you're in an auction, you can just get those dudes, like just get
44:45as many of those guys as you want and then get an anchor or running back and you're good to go.
44:51You know, I also naturally think the, the run on running backs that usually happens in most home leagues will then force
44:58the rest of the room to chase that position.
45:00And while they're chasing again, whether it's hero, zero, robust, if you're at the back, whatever it is, then you just pick
45:07apart those wide receivers while people are drafting these running backs that again can, can meet their floors, can meet expectations.
45:13But we question whether they can exceed it despite being in good environments.
45:17That's kind of like the whole argument I've been making for, you know, I even, I like Dave Montgomery.
45:22It sounds like more than you, but also I understand ADP and like, think about it.
45:27Dave Montgomery and Chuba Hubbard are being drafted in the same round as Jalen Hurts.
45:31In what effing world are you taking a running back?
45:34Like those guys over Jalen Hurts, the QB one fantasy in the past.
45:38Yeah. I'm trying to win my league. I'm not trying to find the RB 13.
45:43Like who cares? Yeah. Yeah. Like, like, again, I don't, I don't want anyone to walk away thinking that like I have
45:49a firm stance, especially on like Montgomery, because he's going later than I expected on season long platforms.
45:55Just to, to be honest with you, that the case is more about the other players that go around these guys at
46:01different positions, you know, like that's where the target and avoid stuff needs to be focused on a little bit more at
46:08this point, as opposed to like positional rank. I don't have that big of a difference in positional rank with like Kyron,
46:14for instance, but I'm underweight on Kyron because of the other positions that are going around him and how good they look, you know?
46:21So my overall rank with a player like Kyron or with a player like Javante is lower than what other sources or ADPs might look like.
46:29It's just because, like you said, the wide receivers are so good.
46:32And then eventually you get to that point where you're like, yeah, I mean, like I'll take one of the elite quarterbacks
46:39because if, especially in best ball right now with the QB two is being pushed up so much, it's like you're, you're,
46:45you're gaining more value with the elite guys in that range that they go in regular home league drafts.
46:51I think waiting on quarterbacks can be a little bit easier than what it is in best ball right now, but we'll see.
46:58Oh, oh yeah. Like as much as I love Jaden Daniels and Jalen Hurts in particular, who I think based on ADP
47:04will probably get drafted after a pocket statue like Joe Burrow, not to say Burrow's range of outcomes doesn't include outscoring them,
47:11but I just think it's a bad bet to make based historically, especially the last few years, given the edge on rushing
47:17quarterbacks and Daniels and Hurts performance in the past.
47:20But like in home leagues, it's going to be really hard for me, not just to wait on Malik Willis or Kyler
47:26Murray, given that I know I'm going to get the rushing floor.
47:30And I do believe like, if you're talking about a one quarterback, 15 round draft, which most home leagues are, they're going
47:36to go in the 14th or 15th round. Yeah.
47:39Trust me. I've talked to, I've tried to preach my friends on it.
47:43No one wants Kyler Murray except me in 2026.
47:46That's okay. And I think in those environments, it's fine.
47:49I've gotten this question plenty, but I think double tapping quarterback that late is fine.
47:53If you want to, if you want to get both Kyler and Malik Willis to, to just, you know, increase your odds
47:59and hitting on one of them or Tyler Shuck or whoever, right?
48:03Like it makes sense to, to, to go that direction, you know, cause your goal is to match what some of the
48:09higher end quarterbacks are going to do. And you know, one way of doing that is to really increase your odds by having multiple darts at the position.
48:18We talked about so many wide receivers. Are there any wide outs that you're fading this year?
48:23Uh, you kind of hit on one actually that, although I liked that entire block, it's not that I'm necessarily fading.
48:29I like this conversation we're having, by the way, I should have expected it from us.
48:34Shout out to us, but we keep talking about players, but the other positions around them.
48:38So good on us rather than just saying, you know, this wide receiver, I don't have ranked as highly.
48:44I am looking at, you know, I keep looking at this tier of wide receivers, all the guys I mentioned.
48:50And so naturally then I moved Ted Arroa and McMillan down.
48:53I understand, you know, the, the bull case that makes me lose for that.
48:57So yeah, if you're looking over when Jalen Coker became a starter in the last five weeks of the season, including, including
49:04the playoffs, Jalen Coker actually had a higher target share.
49:07And you look at the post season, even Coker doubled up Ted Arroa and McMillan 30% target share to his 15%.
49:13And I'm not even saying like, I'm going to draft Jalen Coker in his range.
49:17That's probably where I'll actually be trying to grab upside running backs, even if they're handcuffs.
49:22But I'm saying that Terrell McMillan, like that's his range of outcomes, perhaps losing targets to a competent receiver throughout the year.
49:29Yeah. I mean, the situation there sucks. Like Bryce Young is the, the, and the situation sucks.
49:34You're right. That's the easier way to say it all.
49:37It's like the least friendly fantasy environment from, from like a quarterback to wide receiver perspective that you can almost imagine, you
49:43know, it's like a, it's like a 10th percentile type situation.
49:46And we know they love to run the ball.
49:49And so it's, it's just, and I think the defense can be better this year, which is a problem.
49:55So Bryce Young is QB 29 in points per game and back to back years, just like fodder for super flex leagues.
50:01Like, yeah, it's a disaster situation. Yeah. I mean, like TMAC is, is a friend of the show first off, but TMAC
50:08is very much just in a situational hell. I mean, he checks every box from a stamp from like a first downs
50:14per route run and all the, all the route run per route run stuff that we look at.
50:19But I think you, you have to look at the fact that it's just a rough environment and you're drafting him amongst wide receivers.
50:27This is, this is the reason that I've been lower on Garrett Wilson than the market.
50:31I know, I think ETR is really high on Wilson, if I recall correctly.
50:35And I know that some of the other guys are too, uh, that I respect, but I just, I look at the
50:42other, like some of these environments for these wide outs that are just in better offenses and Garrett Wilson, I think he's
50:48very talented, but at some point we got to be like, are we doing this again?
50:53You know, are we, are we, are we hurting ourselves again by, by doing this when he's never had a season above a two yards per route run?
51:01You know, he's playing with Geno Smith and Frank Reich.
51:04And like, we can make the bowl case for sure.
51:07And I see it and I understand it, but you can do the exact same thing with so many other wide receivers in that range.
51:15You know, that's, that's the problem that I've run into with Wilson.
51:18I haven't faded. Well, I'm actually even in best ball, I'm still at like six or 7%, but I do think that
51:25he's a, he's a minor, minor fade just based on some of the other wide outs, just all, all, all given situations.
51:31It's a very similar thing to, to team act for you.
51:34Garrett Wilson, Jamar Chase, Jackson, the jig, but the only three receivers in the league to finish with 30% of their team's targets.
51:41But like you, I'm also fading him and again, per route basis, totally fine.
51:45Proved he can earn targets. But also when you mentioned something like the improved situation with Geno Smith, there's just, there's no
51:52chance Geno Smith starts all 17 games for losing.
51:55It's scary, right? There's just no chance. Yeah. So I'm baking that in that the situation probably gets a lot worse, even if it starts out good.
52:02Super, super volatile situation. And, and, you know, they added weapons there.
52:06Like who knows what that looks like? I just, I, you know, I, I think Gary Wilson is really, really talented and
52:13it's, it's one of those things that's just hard as an analyst to be like, yeah, I like, you know, a Mecca
52:19Buka more, or I like, you know, this wider seat.
52:22I like Luther burden more than, than Garrett Wilson right now.
52:25And people probably think that's like too hot of a take, but I just see an insane ceiling for a player like
52:32burden where I think the floors are worse for burden.
52:35But if I'm going with the typical draft that I go with and burden ends up as my two or three, then
52:41it's a lot easier to, for, to swallow that.
52:44Right. Similar to base. All toon. If base, all tunes by, by running back three, it is the greatest situation.
52:50That is toon as an RB three is so beyond perfect.
52:53Like that is exactly what you want to do in fantasy football.
52:57You know, like get, get three, if you're getting them in round six and season long leagues, which you will be able
53:03to in a lot of home leagues and you go, you get two running backs early, you get three wide receivers from the zone that we're talking about.
53:11And then base, all tootin is your RB three.
53:14I can't think of a better start than that in terms of weighing risk reward, understanding range of outcomes and just potentially
53:20having a super team in the end. If things really do hit for a player like that, that's just the way that
53:27I think about fantasy football in the end. Considering I'm going into most leagues prepared to have Jalen Warren as my RB
53:33two, given like where I'm zooming back out after the wide receivers and the elite quarterbacks, I would love tootin as my RB two or three.
53:41That'd be incredible. I think there's a lot of validity though, to, to, to going hero RB this year.
53:47Like I go, I go hero RB a lot.
53:49Like I, I it's, it's a very frequent strategy that I've gone through and used for, for years and years.
53:55And I think it's very valid again this year because there are middle round running backs that I wrote Jalen Warren being
54:02one that I really, really like the problem that I, I, it's going to be easier to do that.
54:07I think in less sharp rooms because people are on seemingly, maybe you disagree with this, but on a lot of the
54:14same middle round running backs, like a Jonathan Brooks or something for, for upside case purposes, right?
54:19Like they would be on those guys. So they might dry up a little bit quicker than you would like, and you would get sniped.
54:26And then all of a sudden you're like, Hey, my RB two spots, not looking nearly as good as I thought it might look.
54:33Just given if you look at a ranking sheet and you're like, Oh yeah, Kenny Gainwell is a decent enough, like dart
54:40to have as like a floor kind of player in PPR formats.
54:43But then if other people are also going about it that way and sniping you, then you might walk away with a less favorable running back room.
54:51That, that would be my fear with it this year.
54:54I would just blame you for ruining them. Like you did with Luther burden noticing like that entire list, the scroll of players I gave you.
55:02I didn't even mention Luther burden. Cause anyone who's listened to your show, here's burden every single week.
55:07There's no need for me to also chime in and just say, I like this player.
55:12I'll tell you what, I'll tell you what, it's gotten to the point where last year and on the late round discord,
55:19we had someone made a, an AI image of like my cartoon face and Luther burden as a, as a cartoon.
55:25And he's like holding me, you know, and like, we're like celebrating.
55:28Like I've had the meme with Bayshel Tootin of hashtag all roads.
55:32Cause all roads lead to Bayshel Tootin as more of like a, a kind of a joke thing, but I've believed in
55:38Bayshel Tootin as a prospect for sure. Like a hundred percent.
55:42And so all I need this year, I'm not, I'm not the kind of analyst.
55:46I'm the opposite of this that likes to hang my hat on just like a couple of picks.
55:51But I will say if those two have a good season, I will be doing some, some victory laps around the house.
55:58You know, whenever, when, when, when the season ends, I am shocked that no one has remade the messy Yamal baby photo with you and Luther burden.
56:06That is, that has to happen in the next 48 hours.
56:09It's true. There was, there's been no better coach speak this off season than when Ben Johnson said that he was buying Luther burden stock.
56:16No, nothing better for one of us. That's all I needed.
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57:23Let's really quickly go through some ambiguous backfields because we're now talking about some of those middle rounds.
57:28So I'm curious where you stand on some of these players.
57:31Let's start with Pittsburgh. Your team, Jalen Warren over Rico Dowdle.
57:35And it's based on what we've seen from both the Steelers offense and Jalen Warren.
57:39Aaron Rodgers, because he led the league in time from snap to throw, because, you know, in his age 42 career, he
57:46does not want to get hit at all anymore.
57:48I believe, remember, it was Broderick Jones whenever Aaron Rodgers went vintage last year for one or two throws.
57:54He threw that massive, beautiful touchdown to DK Metcalf on primetime.
57:57And Robert Jones ran over and chest bumped him and knocked him down.
58:01And Rodgers got pissed because, again, he does not want to touch the ground at 42 years old.
58:06But because of that, but the whole point for fantasy is that the he's led a offense that targeted their running backs,
58:13the seventh and second highest rates the last couple of years he's played going back to the Jets.
58:18Jalen Warren's target share also literally doubled to 16 percent during the 299 plays with Kenneth Gainwell off the field last season.
58:25And Gainwell, who is now with the Buccaneers. So I like Jalen Warren to soak up that receiving role, given that Rico
58:31Dowdle hasn't earned a double digit target share in any season, including if you want to isolate his workload after he became
58:38Walter Payton and Chuba Hubbard returned to the lineup last year.
58:41Yeah. Yeah. I think Jalen Warren might be top three, if not the one most underrated real running backs in football.
58:47All of all of his metrics are just like unbelievable.
58:50And he's so consistent as a receiver. So I'm with you.
58:53I know that there's the McCarthy Dowdle connection. I don't even think Dowdle is necessarily like a horrific pick, but it's it's more so I lean.
59:01I just lean Warren's. I think he's he's a really good talent.
59:05All right. I did all the team previews that established a run are most of them.
59:09And that that was my opinion, too. I wrote that Dowdle's range of outcomes includes leading the team in touches as an R.B.
59:16three or weekly flex. Definitely. But more importantly, I want to chase the archetype because, again, we're chasing upside in that range.
59:23And I think Jalen Warren's ceiling is significantly higher.
59:25All right. Let's go to Carolina. Do you think that we're going to see a situation in like mid-August where Jonathan Brooks
59:32maybe maybe not on season long platforms, but like where Jonathan Brooks goes ahead of Chuba Hubbard?
59:37Yes. FFPC, especially the two thousand dollar Las Vegas drafts are known to have some some big risers.
59:42And Jonathan Brooks is definitely projected to be the biggest riser in ADP by the time week one kicks off.
59:48Chuba Hubbard handled 61 percent of the team's backfield touches through week four.
59:52That's when he got injured with that calf strain and then came back to only 37 percent from week seven on.
59:58More importantly, we already talked about Chuba Hubbard's being drafted around elite players who can literally lead their position in scoring.
60:04I do not believe that's in Chuba Hubbard's range of outcomes.
60:07Uh, Jonathan Brooks is also going three rounds later based on ESPN and Yahoo ADP.
60:12So that's a much more inconsequential pick that I'm willing to swing for the fences with rather than Chuba Hubbard.
60:18So, you know, when you tell me Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Parker Washington, the list goes on.
60:23I'm going to say Jonathan Brooks three rounds later every time.
60:26Yeah. Agreed. Uh, I'm really curious about how you feel about Denver's backfield.
60:30I have been calling RJ Harvey the cam ward of running backs because as you know, when writing about them, it's never
60:36good when you have to scroll to the very last page.
60:40You got to hit that sideways toggle four times to get to their stats because it was quite literally one of the
60:46least efficient and in explosive running backs the entire league last year.
60:50Having said that, I did win, you know, multiple championships because if there's any skeleton key in fans football, it's about touches.
60:56And so I dragged the corpses of RJ Harvey, Woody Marks, Devin Neal and Audrey Gasteemey as my RV two with Christian McCaffrey to many home league championships.
61:04But I say that because they do now go up for Jonah Coleman, uh, who does fit the profile better.
61:10If you, if you're into early breakouts, Coleman average 6.8 yards per carry at 20 years old at Arizona.
61:16If you're into receiving backs, he has 80 catches over the last three years in college and average 1.7 yards per outrun
61:22in his final season, which was second in this class last year behind only Jeremiah Love.
61:27And so given that they, they went up for him, I do believe not a short burn.
61:32Like we were going to have to wait this one out most likely as an unusable player in Jonah Coleman on the back of your bench.
61:40But I do believe that's a swing I want to take at ADP because he's going from like the 10th, 12th round in home leagues.
61:47Yeah. Oh my gosh. I have so much Jonah Coleman in best ball.
61:51It's ridiculous. Yeah. Yeah. So that's the thing that I, I feel like too.
61:55So I have to be honest with you. I want to hear your take.
61:59I want your honest, I mean, we're pals. I want you to destroy this because it's, it's, it's, it's become a problem over the last couple of weeks.
62:08I've kind of been RJ Harvey pilled. Okay. Let me, let me, let me explain.
62:12Let me explain. Okay. This is not, I entered this off season, not liking RJ Harvey at all.
62:17Calling him a sell. Did not understand why people were boosting him up as much as they were in dynasty rankings.
62:24He had a very, as you said, he had a like rushing yards over expected per rush.
62:29Like just a lot of the explosive run stuff wasn't totally there.
62:32You know, obviously it depends on what kind of thresholds you're using and stuff, but he did not have a good season on the ground.
62:40However, however, if there's one process, you know, that, that is, that has yielded really good results historically from an ADP trend standpoint.
62:46It is drafting second year running backs and ambiguous backfields who catch passes.
62:50And RJ Harvey is, is all of that. Like a hundred percent is all of that.
62:55And so I've given where he falls in drafts often.
62:58Now there's not nearly as much of an opportunity cost.
63:01This is why I was like talking about earlier how, like when people say like, oh, I'm not drafting RJ Harvey in round five.
63:08Yeah, I'm not either, but he's not going in round five anymore.
63:11You know? And I have a feeling because I like Jonah Coleman.
63:15He's actually, Jonah Coleman's actually my highest rostered basketball player right now.
63:18Uh, and I, it's kind of a kind of contrarian because every time I bring that up, someone in chat makes me feel like an idiot.
63:26But the main reason is because I think he will get some work like there.
63:31And then there's multiple outs for contingent upside, right?
63:33For both Dobbins and RJ Harvey for him to get more work.
63:37And then with Dobbins, my stance has kind of been like, why am I drafting?
63:41And their ADPs have been different in best ball, but in season long and on ESPN and such, there's like a 50
63:48pick gap between JK Dobbins and Jordan Mason, you know?
63:51And if it's like, if you're going to get in season long, a JK Dobbins type, just draft Jordan Mason or even Chris Rodriguez or something.
63:58If you want to take a chance on, on that backfield.
64:02But like Jordan Mason to me is, is the clear arbitrage off of JK Dobbins on a platform like that, where they're
64:08more than likely not going to play a receiving role.
64:11They're, they're going to see some rushing work. And Mason actually was kind of explosive last year.
64:16He actually didn't look terrible from, from that perspective.
64:19Now with RJ Harvey though, I just see it as I don't want to be so blind to what happened.
64:25His, like, first off, I wasn't even that high on him as a prospect.
64:29You guys can go read the prospect guide. Like the mod is that model had him as a, a high risk prospect,
64:35you know, just given where he was drafted. But I don't want to overstate the rushing stuff because it's not the stickiest
64:42in the world necessarily year over year. And like the receiving work is still going to be there for him probably to some degree to start the season.
64:50And I'm like, well, what if he's just a year two player that just looks a little bit better?
64:56That's kind of where I'm coming from. And, and you're getting a discount because of all the stuff you talked about.
65:02And I agree with it. I don't even disagree with you because like, you can take this kind of art.
65:08Like this is where you can hear the pro and con and you can literally go either direction with, with a player like this.
65:15But for me, I'm looking at like what's going on around there.
65:18And typically my builds are going to be of that.
65:21Like if he's an RB three for me, I don't, I don't have to rely on him.
65:26And I've, I've gone wide receiver heavy already. I don't necessarily need like Jaden Reed right here or something like that, you know?
65:33Yes. Um, and so like, that's kind of where I'm, I'm coming from with, with Harvey.
65:38What do you think that's a moronic take? Because you will, you'll, you'll keep me honest here.
65:43No, if anything, you may have persuaded me more on the RG Harvey, but, but also again, as you're talking about that,
65:49his ADP with JK Dobbins has gotten a lot closer.
65:52The betting on the second round player makes a lot more sense.
65:56Whereas I was actually, while you're talking, I was looking to double check here right now.
66:01I'm at 22% Jackie Dobbins and best ball versus 6% RJ Harvey.
66:04But that's been because the differential was three, two to three rounds.
66:08It was bigger. But now that they're getting closer.
66:10Yeah. I could see myself drafting RJ Harvey just because he's one of those guys who's like leftover.
66:16If you use tools, he's always highlighting green as well.
66:19But yeah, to this point, it's been Dobbins. Um, but again, I'm still shocked about where, because previously, you know, we, we do chase the running backs.
66:27We do think have good enough profiles and ambiguous backfields.
66:30And so I've been more shocked about Jonah Coleman and Nicholas Singleton, ADP singleton for the Titans really then, you know, being
66:36excited about drafting either Harvey or Dobbins. I just do it.
66:39Yeah. Yeah. No, both Coleman and Singleton for me in, in redraft and managed season long are, are, are targets.
66:45Cause you can obviously dump them. Yeah. Yeah. Right.
66:48Yeah. Just throw that dart and see what happens.
66:51If you would consider him as part of the dead zone area, I don't think he quite is, but he might be
66:57in more season long formats, but like, I don't understand Tony Pollard.
67:01I can't, I just can't get behind the Tony Pollard stuff.
67:04And I know, I know that's an anti ETR take or some, some folks at ETR seem to like Pollard a lot,
67:10but like, to me, that is like a quintessential.
67:13If he were going around earlier, you could firmly call him a dead, a dead zone guy.
67:18But like, he, to me is quintessential. Like just stay away based on the receiving profile and his splits with Tajay Spears
67:24and the offense, probably not being that strong. I'd rather take a chance on a Nick Singleton in season long.
67:30I'd rather take a chance. Like I'm going to probably have more Jonah Coleman in the Denver backfield than I will RJ Harvey.
67:37But that's been the, that's been what's stewing with me with Harvey.
67:41Cause I think in some, like you're going to find drafts where RJ Harvey falls a lot because people have a genuinely smart stance.
67:48I was in that boat before too. I just don't want to ignore cost, you know, and, and like stick with the,
67:54the player take and not look at the range of outcomes as well.
67:58This, this does not fit the same mold because you mentioned, you know, breakouts being your two running backs who earn targets.
68:05That's also why I'm in on Ja'Cory Krosky-Meritt over Rashad White.
68:08I know, I know he doesn't earn targets, but in terms of ADP, you are getting a two to, you know, based
68:14on where you're going ESPN, Yahoo, you are getting a two to three round discount based on last year.
68:20And like, he was still explosive. Like unlike RJ Harvey, like his 12% rate of 10 yard carries finished right between B.
68:27John and Derek Henry, two guys we respect. Yes.
68:29Seven catches in college, nine catches in his rookie year.
68:32Not great. Rashad White comes over actually having that receiving profile, but with an ambiguous back count backfield and a discount for a year two running back.
68:40Yes. Cost to me is most important. So perhaps I should be more RJ Harvey as he continues to fall.
68:46Yeah. Look, the, the, the JCM thing, you could, you could argue that that's another arbitrage type player off of a Dobbins
68:53from a pass catching standpoint, probably not a ton of upside.
68:56I think that we have more of a floor with Dobbins because we just have seen him be able to carry a
69:02workload and it's probably a better environment. But at the same time, like, I don't know.
69:07I just, I don't get moved by a guy who's going to see who saw 4% targets here last year, which is
69:13what I'm not trying to sell you to. I'm just letting you know, I'll probably, I'll probably be into drafting him.
69:20I am into drafting him. I think no, I think Bill is fine at his cost.
69:24I've leaned more towards the Rashad White side. A lot of people do.
69:28Yeah. All right. One more I want to get to in these backfields is new England.
69:33Are you, are you more in a cost at, on Travion or Ramondre?
69:37Okay. So what happened last year was that Ramondre Stevenson misses three games.
69:41Travion Henderson finishes as the week's RB 16, RB 4 and RB 3.
69:44And that span, they then come back from their buy and from week 15 on, including the Super Bowl run, Stevenson handled
69:5155% of the team's backfield touches with a 12% target share.
69:54And most importantly, because Henderson is, is correctly, but he's mentioned as the more explosive back Stevenson in that span from week
70:0115 on had a higher rate of 10 yard carries than Henderson did.
70:05So I just think Stevenson personally is a trusted running back under Mike Vrabel.
70:09Who's also a better pass protector. And I'm also in the minority of saying Travion Henderson was a win in season long
70:15football because you knew when to start him. He wasn't bad from, you know, after he won that job, which again, you
70:22knew to start him then he was then also like averaging roughly top 24 numbers.
70:26So again, he didn't lose your league. You started him anyhow.
70:29And also if you were to ever drop Travion Henderson, which I know some people did, he would immediately pretty much in
70:36every format be the best pickup you could then make.
70:39And so I consider Henderson a season long win last year, but they did prove at least in Henderson's first year that they trust Stevenson more.
70:47So I like Stevenson at cost a lot. I actually think I'm like, again, this is a different conversation, best ball to
70:53season long, but in best ball, I am roughly like 35, 40% on Stevenson.
70:57And then season long, I think he's a guy at least based on ADP.
71:01We're probably going to get later despite last year's results.
71:04Yeah. I mean, like Stevenson's one of those, like if you do go hero RB or zero RB, he's got a nice
71:11floor for you to just kind of get by.
71:13And then, uh, you know, stealing outcomes can still hit with injury or just with the bigger workload than we expect.
71:20I'm with you. I have Stevenson as a better value right now.
71:23I think Henderson's fine where he goes. I don't have, you know, again, if you're going to get someone in that range,
71:30you should be getting the explosive year two guy.
71:32This is just going back to how I feel about how the market's been behaving is that we're the market sharper.
71:38Like these two ADPs, I don't think would be looking like this five years ago.
71:43I think that people saw what happened in the playoffs and be like, oh, I'm taking Ramondre Stevenson in round five and
71:49Travion in round seven or something like that. And then that's where we would be sitting here saying, oh, we're drafting Travion
71:56this year, you know, because we want, we want that upside, but it's just not how the market has shown and what the market's doing right now.
72:04Do you think that that tight end is Brock Bowers or bust this year?
72:08Or are you, are you in on some of the other early round tight ends?
72:12And then if, if not, or regardless if you are or not, throw me some, some late round darts that you're looking at.
72:19So yes, for Bowers, I do think the way I'm handling this season and, and this is complete opposite of last season,
72:26last season, because Trey McBride was going typically a full round later.
72:29I even mentioned that that's the value I want understanding that, you know, in the last decade up until 2025, a tight
72:36end has only separated by more than two points per game twice.
72:39And both times it was Travis Kelsey, one of the greatest receiving tight ends of all time.
72:44So Bowers truly had to separate in order for that full round of value to make a difference from McBride.
72:50So I went McBride everywhere last year. If not, I waited on Tucker Craft, Jake Ferguson and, and Dallas Goddard.
72:56This season though, when we're talking about that top tier of tight ends, Bowers and McBride are a couple picks within each other.
73:03They're just neck and neck in the second round.
73:06And so to me, that screams to either drop, draft Brock Bowers or then wait at tight end.
73:11The way this loses, by the way, is Colston Loveland, who's drafted two rounds later than those guys, like keeping it close with Bowers.
73:18He doesn't have to beat him. If he keeps it close, he's the best value on the board.
73:23And that's kind of what I'm worried about. But again, when we're talking about overall lineup building, I'm going to be in that range of wide receivers instead.
73:32So I'm unfortunately just going to miss out on Loveland most likely, but really one year removed from Bowers, you know, going
73:38full ether with the most catches in any season by an NFL rookie.
73:42And then last year, we only got a one week sample, but he was targeted on 35% of his routes in week
73:48one before that PCL injury and bone bruise really tanked his entire year.
73:52So I like Bowers a lot. And then if you're moving on, it kind of goes in segments, honestly, because I'm curious
73:59to see where Kyle Pitts falls in home leagues.
74:01We've all been burned by Kyle Pitts before. So despite ADP being seventh, eighth round, I think there's a real good chance
74:08he goes later and Kevin Stefanski's offense every year in Cleveland finished top nine and tight end rate.
74:13I also know there are some disastrous splits that Kyle Pitts basically only broke out when Drake Lennon was injured.
74:19But since I drafted a big picture view, I want to ignore all that from last year.
74:24Understanding different head coach, different quarterback, different play caller.
74:27Yeah, don't care. Want to bet on Kyle Pitts.
74:29So let's see where he goes. Dallas Goddard, the past two seasons without A.J.
74:34Brown in the field. If you look back to last year, his race without A.J.
74:38Brown second in both target share and yards per route run among all tight ends.
74:42I'm not saying he's going to finish as a second tight end, but I'm saying that's a pretty good value considering you
74:49can get him as a low end tight end one, if not a tight end two in your league.
74:55And then the last round guys talking about values, Chico Conquo, just because, well, no, Isaiah Likely and Chico Conquo are the two guys.
75:02Let's see where they fall. But really, all I look for in a breakout tight end, similar to chasing Tucker Craft last
75:08year everywhere, is I asked myself two questions. Do you break tackles and can you lead your team in targets?
75:14Chico Conquo was 10th and missed tackles force per reception.
75:17Never really had the opportunity in a bad offense in Tennessee.
75:20So I do like that outlook considering they really don't even have a strong wide receiver right now.
75:26And with the commanders and a good quarterback in Jane Daniels for Oconquo.
75:29And then for Isaiah Likely, we're just talking about, I think it was 24 million, 26 million guaranteed going over with a quarterback that's very familiar with him.
75:38One of the best athletes that's in position who also without Malik neighbors, you talk about not having a wide receiver two,
75:44may not have a wide receiver one. So I like those two guys a lot.
75:49All right. I'm going to get you out of here with a couple, just two more questions.
75:54Yeah. We're going to be really long, but you know, whatever.
75:57Yeah. Yeah. Whatever. You have children. I just have old style.
76:00I'm going to keep you for another three hours.
76:03People have said that I'm the Joe Rogan of, that I want to be the Joe Rogan of fantasy football.
76:09No, you don't. You record some of the shorter shows.
76:12That's why someone critiqued me. Someone said that I wanted to do that with late round perspectives.
76:17That's why I did late round perspectives. Don't get me wrong.
76:20He knows this. I love Jacob Sanderson's work, but I also know if I turn on his podcast, I'm in for a four hour novel.
76:27And sometimes I just don't have time. Well, shout out, shout out him and Gretch.
76:32They started a new show. And so everyone should check that out.
76:35But it's, those are two of the long-winded analysts in the game.
76:39So you know, it's going to be, yeah, yeah.
76:41It's going to be a three hour show, but that's why it's great.
76:45That's why, you know, they're, they're, I mean, they're super sharp.
76:49Check that out for the record. They have a new show.
76:52Give me your three favorite values this season. Three guys that you're going to be drafting a lot of.
76:57I hate this question because I know everyone's looking for quote unquote sleepers.
77:01Okay. I think values, not fun. I know, but second round Saquon Barkley is a value considering his range of outcomes as
77:08he already showed just two years ago is outscoring Christian McCaffrey.
77:11And again, in home leagues, he's literally going in the second round with a new OC.
77:16That is absolutely insane. I'm not going to count this as one of my three, but I think Emeka Buka again is
77:22also a extreme value given that he also can be a top three wide receiver in fantasy.
77:27He already proved that last year with an improved situation.
77:30I'm also drafting. We didn't, we didn't really, we kind of talked about it.
77:34But I do think Jonathan Brooks, unless again, JJ Zachary sustains him up is going to be like a 10th round pick in home leagues.
77:42So I think he's a really good, he's an easy click right now.
77:46I'm like, I'm like eight running back spots ahead of season long.
77:49I think he's a great value. And just the way I'm drafting, I keep looking at when I talk about my values,
77:56who I'm going to have the most of. And I think just based on how I draft Jonathan Brooks is always going to be on my rosters.
78:04So I'm just going to call him a value.
78:06And then in terms of quarterback. Yeah. I think last round Malik Willis and Kyler Murray is going to feed families given their situations.
78:13Yeah. Agreed. Agreed on all counts. All right. One more now.
78:17Give me, give me your 2026 hot take. That's going to just blow me away.
78:21My, my air conditioning is now working. So, uh, I, it was not working for a while.
78:26So I was, I was sweating from some of the hot takes that, that Todd Burroughs threw my way on becoming a
78:33best ball bro, but I won't be doing that here, but give me a hot take for this, this upcoming season.
78:39I have so many. So let's, let's just start really quickly from cold, not really quickly, but cold to hot.
78:45Okay. I love it. Okay. So I think it's easy.
78:48It's not easy. I shouldn't phrase it like that.
78:50If Ashton Jenti were to outscore Christian McCaffrey, we would not be shocked.
78:54I would not be shocked. So, but that's not hot, right?
78:57That, that can happen. That's like a, that's like a four out of 10.
79:01It's a first round player versus a first round player.
79:04Who cares? Right. Yeah. If you're, are you assuming health for CMC or is that all part of the equation?
79:10I think there's a lot of inefficiency baked in as well, but, uh, yeah, I think Ashton Jenti, given what he showed,
79:17I don't know why it took until they healthy scratch where he most are for him to have the sixth highest target shares position.
79:24But the numbers last year, his inefficiency was not on him.
79:27It was the offensive line and play calling, which is entirely, entirely different this year.
79:32So yeah, Ashton Jenti, Saquon Barkley, I'm probably double tapping that if I'm at the one 10 through one 12, Tyler Shuck,
79:38Malik Willis, Kyler Murray outscore Matthew Stafford, but again, not hot, right?
79:42That's whatever. Like they most likely will happen given their rushing scores.
79:45So I think the hottest one I can give you is that a Mecca Buka outscores Jackson Smith and Jigba as a first round player this year.
79:53Okay. Okay. That's how I'm surprised that you didn't, you didn't go with him that as like you're, you mentioned him as
80:00like an honorable mention from a value perspective, a Mecca Buka.
80:03But again, when we talk about values, people want like the late round picks.
80:07They don't care about. You're just, you're just playing into the audience here.
80:11Cause you know, this isn't a Buka podcast after, after last year's fiasco.
80:15And yeah. And, um, a Buka is like the one player Silva and I both agree on as well.
80:20Like the, the ETR Slack tried to bring his projection downs a bit and Silva and I were having none of it unanimously.
80:27Like you are not bringing down a Buka's ranking at all.
80:30Well, by the time this publishes on, on Friday, the draft guy will be updated as well.
80:35And he is a new player to target in the draft.
80:39Oh, interesting. Yeah. Part of it is because I did the, the market score, uh, comp stuff for Tuesday's episode.
80:45And I looked at projections based on comps for market score and a Buka came out as a top five wide receiver in those projections.
80:52It's basically just looking at players that have similar market scores and ADP and career years.
80:57And it just loves a Mecca Buka and I love a Mecca Buka and I don't want to miss out on what
81:03not only that, I've been watching quarterback on Netflix while Peloton recently.
81:07And I like forgot how good a Buka was to start last season and how fun that whole thing was.
81:13I just, it's, it's just one of those things where like, it's all coming together for me.
81:18Like the universe is telling me that I need to draft more a Mecca.
81:22It also reminds all of us how much hate Baker Mayfield has in his heart.
81:26If you play against him, like no, no one lives on doubt, like self-inflicted doubt more than Baker Mayfield.
81:32He's one of those players who doesn't happen anymore.
81:34Aaron Rodgers was like this too, where like you speak out or speak up.
81:39Baker is becoming like all of a sudden Dan Marino.
81:42That show has been great this season. It's the best season from my perspective.
81:46I didn't even like like some of the earlier seasons.
81:49The problem was like in past years, it's been Kirk cousins who is a, you know, self-accounted dweeb.
81:54Like he knows that he's good at what he does, but he's not interesting.
81:58And the same thing for the greatest quarterback we've ever seen, Patrick Mahomes.
82:02Everyone that knows Patrick Mahomes life behind the scenes knows he's boring as hell.
82:06All he does is wear sandals and cook brisket.
82:09Like no one wants to see that at all.
82:11So now we get Baker Mayfield who is not scared to speak his mind every single week.
82:16That's the kind of players they should be putting on those shows.
82:20Yes. Yes. And I think like the Flacco stuff, he's a doof, but it's been really fun to watch.
82:26Like even that stuff has been, I know why you're interested in that because y'all are long lost twins.
82:31Yeah. Look, he's another friend of the show. I got to meet him back in February.
82:36So I, I, I'm invested in that, that Buccaneers passing attack as a rebound.
82:40It's, it's fun. And Baker watching Baker on that show is also awesome.
82:44He's, he's, he's incredible. I mean, just great television, like just phenomenal television the way they, I mean, they went to the
82:50New York city marathon during his bi-week and just got hammered while his brother-in-law's marathon.
82:55One of us, you know? Yeah. He's just a normal dude.
82:58Anyway, Dago, this was great. Uh, let everyone know where they can find you, what you're working on, all that good stuff.
83:05Establish the run. And now is the time to tune in.
83:08Both the podcast and YouTube feed are free. We are going to be running as we talked about on this show, actually
83:14mock drafts, several new ideas coming out too, that we've all been discussing in the coming weeks since training camps are finally here.
83:21So establish run.com is where you can find all my written work.
83:25Uh, first waiver wire will be out and somehow a month and a half too.
83:29That's crazy. 50 days. I realized also we have, I have another ETR person coming on, becoming a best ball bro next week.
83:36Little teaser for you guys. His, uh, initials might be a L we'll give you, I'll give you that.
83:41Yeah. Yeah. Who knows who, who it could be?
83:44Who knows? Anyway, check out late round.com. Check out the draft guide.
83:48It's out. Uh, by the time you're listening to this, you will have the most recent version, the July 24th update for that.
83:54So there's more players that have been added to the players of target avoid.
83:59And dart throw list, the rankings are updated. Uh, check that out late round.com.
84:03Otherwise everyone enjoy your weekend and thanks for tuning in.
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