The Show: Training Camp Sleepers, Market Score Comp Projections, and More

JJ Zachariason is high on AJ Brown this year and expresses concern that market score comps rank him as wide receiver 18, which he views as too low; he personally ranks Brown at wide receiver 16, suggesting the comp-based ranking undervalues him relative to his projection and talent.

JJ Zachariason notes Aaron Jones is older (32) and "definitely looks like he's lost a little bit of a step," making him vulnerable to Daman Claiborne in the Packers backfield. However, Zachariason also shares a personal anecdote about Jones being one of the nicest and most respected NFL players, and notes he's been a long-time fan. Despite Jones' age and decline, Zachariason still sees him as a potential pairing with Jordan Mason in the backfield.

JJ Zachariason identifies Bijan Robinson as a beneficiary of Tua Tagovailoa's arrival in Atlanta, expecting Robinson to receive significant dump-off volume from Tua similar to the Miami pattern; positions Robinson as a key target in the Falcons offense under the new quarterback.

Zachariason questions why Braylon Allen goes where he does in drafts when he is likely only a handcuff with minimal standalone production in a bad Jets offense. Isaiah Davis is now the favorite per recent reports, and Zachariason does not see strong value in Allen.

Zachariason notes that if B. John Robinson gets hurt, Brian Robinson will take on a lot of work, but Brian Robinson has not been a stellar pass catcher either, creating limitations in his upside as a handcuff.

Zachariason references Brian Thomas as the player commanding a significant ADP/valuation gap over Parker Washington on major fantasy platforms. While not elaborated in detail, the implication is that Thomas is valued higher, though Zachariason suggests the gap is wider than warranted.

JJ Zachariason identifies a significant 1.3 points-per-game drop-off from Chase Brown (RB14) to RJ Harvey (RB15) in market score comp projections, indicating notable downside risk or projection uncertainty for Brown relative to his draft position.

Zachariason views Chris Rodriguez as a better pick in best ball than season-long because production will likely be unpredictable and one-off (e.g., a single touchdown). Rodriguez is not a lock for all goal-line work given Bayshall Tootin's significant role last year. Zachariason characterizes preferring Rodriguez over Tootin as a safe, low-upside bet with limited predictability week-to-week.

JJ Zachariason mentions Christian Watson in the context of market score comp projections analysis, though specific downside or upside is not detailed in this excerpt.

Christian Watson is included in JJ Zachariason's market score comp analysis as a player where historical comps diverge from current market valuation; the specific direction of the divergence is not detailed in this segment.

JJ Zachariason strongly opposes Cortland Sutton's draft capital in season-long leagues, where ESPN and Yahoo have him at wide receiver 33-37 while Zachariason ranks him at wide receiver 44. He notes Sutton has never had a WR1 season, only one WR2 season in PPR points per game, and his yards per route run has not exceeded 2.0 in seven years. Adding Jalen Waddle to the offense should not sustain Sutton's production; Troy Franklin outproduced Sutton in a three-to-four-game stretch last season in the same role.

JJ Zachariason mentions DJ Moore in the context of market score comp projections analysis, though specific downside or upside is not detailed in this excerpt.

DJ Moore is included in JJ Zachariason's market score comp analysis as a player where historical comps diverge from current market valuation; the specific direction of the divergence is not detailed in this segment.

JJ Zachariason characterizes Montgomery as a classic dead-zone running back archetype; not young, boosted by projection, and not an elite pass catcher. While he could get significant work, Zachariason is underweight on Montgomery because he prefers more tantalizing upside elsewhere, especially as a third running back in builds. He cautions against overweighting the Texans backfield given CJ Stroud's inconsistency since his rookie season and the run game's historical inefficiency.

JJ Zachariason highlights David Montgomery as a running back showing downside risk in market score comp projections, indicating his comps suggest lower production than his market score alone might indicate.

JJ Zachariason notes David Montgomery as a running back with downside risk in market score comp analysis; the comps suggest lower historical precedent for his current market valuation.

DeVonta Smith's market score comps don't love him despite the actual market score being neutral; the historical comp analysis suggests his current valuation may be optimistic relative to similar player outcomes.

JJ Zachariason projects Drake London could achieve a 28-30% target share in 2024 with Tua Tagovailoa in Atlanta, citing Tua's pattern of consolidating targets to his best options and the Falcons' limited secondary receiving options; expects London to be one of two or three primary targets in the offense.

JJ Zachariason is interested in Eli Stowers as a potential rookie tight end dart throw but notes there are reports he could have a "red shirt season" essentially. Stowers is older than Kenyon Sadiq, which is concerning because a rookie season without production is typically a rough sign for an older prospect. Stowers can't block, but that's not required for a pass-catching tight end. Zachariason is anxious to see how Stowers fits in the new Eagles system with Jalen Hurts.

JJ Zachariason received Michael Thomas and Pat Bryant comps for Elijah Surratt but notes JJ Zachariason Harmon correctly identified him as a "big slot" (similar to how Harmon called Keon Coleman a big slot and was right about Coleman's lack of separation on the outside). Surratt profiles as a big slot for the Ravens, and with Isaiah Likely gone, the Ravens' smart staff should deploy him in the slot alongside Mark Andrews. As a late-round pick with a defined role, Surratt could see spiked weeks and excite people once that role is clarified.

JJ Zachariason is ahead of the market on Gunner Helm, a late-round tight end with poor athleticism scores (due to injury during drills) but strong intangibles. Helm fits the late-round tight-end archetype of an open pass-catching room with ambiguous target distribution. Tennessee has no tight end competing with him (Daniel Bellinger is not a pass-catching threat), so if there's chatter about Helm being a top target—which Zachariason thinks is very possible—he could rise in ADP. Helm is not even ranked on some big platforms.

JJ Zachariason cautions that Hayden Hurst's fantasy value is heavily dependent on Tua Tagovailoa; notes that without Tua, Hurst was 'completely useless in fantasy football' last year, and while Hurst may maintain a 20% target share, the floor is significantly lower than 2023 production because Tua was elevating him; expects Tua to provide a floor but not guarantee the same ceiling.

Zachariason notes that Isaiah Davis is the favorite over Braylon Allen in the Jets backfield per a report by Zach Rosenblatt in The Athletic. Zachariason believes Davis is a better player than Allen with a more receiving skillset, and he does not understand why Allen goes where he does in drafts as a handcuff in a bad offense. Davis is not even getting drafted in most drafts, making him a potential value.

Zachariason cautions that Simone Vocky may eat into Isaiah Pacheco's touches, which would diminish his value. More broadly, Zachariason warns that Pacheco's talent profile is not elite; he is fragile and dependent on the starter staying healthy. Zachariason notes he was a Pacheco truther who profited from him but now recognizes his limitations. The key is evaluating the backup's talent profile, not just assuming he will take over if the starter is injured.

JJ Zachariason is not drafting JK Dobbins and argues there is no reason to reach for him in season-long leagues. Dobbins is being drafted as high as RB 30 (Yahoo RB 35, ESPN RB 33) but has the same archetype as Jordan Mason (RB 44–46), who has easier backfield competition. Dobbins was not used as a receiver last year, is coming off injury with a history of injuries, and is not a pass catcher. With the Jonah Coleman factor potentially limiting his work, Zachariason sees no upside and advocates for arbitraging Mason 50 picks later on ESPN instead.

JJ Zachariason notes that Jalen Coker's fantasy value could be dampened by Teddero McMillan's increased slot work in Carolina's offense. Coker is a good slot player himself, so McMillan's shift to more slot snaps would reduce Coker's opportunity in that area.

JJ Zachariason notes that Jalen Coker is a pretty good slot player himself, which could dampen his fantasy value if another slot-capable receiver joins his team, reducing his target share and role clarity.

Adam Schefter reported that Jalen Waddle is playing the 'Joker' role in the Denver offense; JJ Zachariason contextualizes the Joker role as a Sean Payton deployment tool that typically involves lining players all over the field in interesting ways, historically used with tight ends and running backs (Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham); suggests the Joker label itself shouldn't be a major concern and may represent value in the Denver offense.

JJ Zachariason rates Waddle as a smash at his ADP in season-long leagues, where ESPN and Yahoo have him at wide receiver 22-24 while Zachariason has him at wide receiver 17. He expects Waddle to play the Z position frequently in Miami's offense, which should sustain his fantasy production despite the addition of Cortland Sutton to the roster.

JJ Zachariason is "on an island" with Jonah Coleman, who is underrated in best ball despite being a backup to both JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey. Coleman is a jack-of-all-trades (early down, pass catching, pass pro) who provides stability in an offense with an injury-prone veteran (Dobbins) and volatile second-year back (Harvey). Zachariason expects Coleman's ADP to rise once beat reporters report first-team mixing, as he could see 5–7 touches per game and has multiple contingent outs if either Dobbins or Harvey gets hurt. In season-long, he's only draftable in deep-bench situations, but in best ball he's underrated.

JJ Zachariason has been "on oddly team Jordan Mason" for the last month, despite not being on that team in the past. He recognizes Mason is not a complete running back and lacks pass-catching chops, but sees him as better value than JK Dobbins at a similar archetype. Mason is ranked RB 44–46 across platforms, making him 50+ picks cheaper than Dobbins (RB 33–35) while offering similar early-down grinder production with easier backfield competition.

JJ Zachariason has been drafting Kenyon Sadiq and thinks he's "actually not a bad pick," especially at reasonable prices on platforms like ESPN. Sadiq is one of two rookie tight ends (along with Eli Stowers) being considered as potential late-round dart throws. Sadiq has been dealing with a hernia injury, but Zachariason is interested in his upside and sees him as draftable at current market prices.

JJ Zachariason suggests Kyle Pitts 'could be decent' in the Falcons offense with Tua Tagovailoa, positioning him as a secondary receiving option behind Drake London in an offense with limited target distribution.

JJ Zachariason acknowledges Malachi Fields is not a strong prospect—he had mediocre age-adjusted collegiate production over five years and separation issues—but sees a real breakout opportunity given his size (he's a "size freak") and the opening in the Giants offense. Zachariason expects highlight-reel "mossing defenders" moments that could spark hype, especially in the red zone, and has been drafting Fields around round 20 alongside Jackson Dart to get exposure to the Giants offense, particularly with the injury to Neighbors.

JJ Zachariason expresses skepticism about Penix's NFL performance to date, stating he's 'not sold' on him and hasn't been 'inspired' by what Penix has shown; notes Penix has also struggled with injury durability, suggesting limited upside for Falcons passing game contributors.

Zachariason expresses skepticism about Michael Penix's NFL performance, questioning what Penix has shown so far. Zachariason notes Penix had one good game but is not sold on his long-term viability, suggesting uncertainty about his role in the Lions offense.

Zachariason notes that Parker Washington is marked as a target in the draft guide despite not being personally high on him. The key insight is that major fantasy platforms are unbelievably low on Washington relative to Brian Thomas, creating a gap that Zachariason believes is unnecessary. Washington could see significant volume in the Jaguars offense and has PPR upside; Jaguars head coach Liam Cohen spoke bullishly about Washington on Peter Schrager's show.

JJ Zachariason's market score comp projections show RJ Harvey at RB15, with a notable 1.3 points-per-game improvement over Chase Brown (RB14), suggesting Harvey's comp profile is more favorable relative to his market expectations.

Sam Laporta has been fully cleared for training camp after a successful micro disc ectomy, per reports from Schefter and others. This is positive news for his availability.

Zachariason uses Saquon Barkley as a reference point when discussing Tank Bigsby's handcuff value. If Barkley were to go down, Bigsby would see a boost, but the extent of receiving work is uncertain.

JJ Zachariason notes that Stefon Diggs has not yet signed with a team and remains unsigned, expressing surprise at his continued free agent status.

JJ Zachariason expects Stefan Diggs to sign with Washington as the replacement for Iuke in the slot role, pairing well with Terry McLaurin who stretches the field; Zachariason does not want to see Diggs go to Baltimore due to volume concerns and preference to keep Zay Flowers' target share high, though Kansas City is also a possibility.

Zachariason notes that while Tank Bigsby was very good per rush last year and has been solid on the ground, he has never been a true bell cow through the air and has horrific per-route-run metrics as a pass catcher in the NFL. If Saquon Barkley goes down, Bigsby gets a huge boost, but the receiving work would be limited. Zachariason cautions against assuming Bigsby would automatically take over all of Barkley's work.

JJ Zachariason pushes back on the narrative that CJ Stroud's poor performance is due to Tank Dell's absence. Stroud averaged 13.2 standard points per game with Dell in 2024 and only a couple points below that in three games without him, indicating Stroud's struggles are broader (offensive line, coordinator fit, quarterback play) rather than Dell-dependent. However, Zachariason still sees a real chance Dell gets "steamed up" in late July and August with talented receivers around him in Houston.

JJ Zachariason notes that Terry McLaurin can stretch the field really well, supporting the fit with Stefan Diggs who is past the point in his career of being a deep-threat receiver.

Zachariason references Travis Etienne in the context of Bayshall Tootin's superior success rate last year. Etienne's role is implied to be diminished or less efficient relative to Tootin's performance.

JJ Zachariason views Tua as 'a fine pick' in late-round drafts and expects him to elevate Falcons receivers; notes Tua's willingness to consolidate targets to his best options (similar to Miami pattern) and projects Drake London could hit 28-30% target share with Tua distributing to two or three primary targets; expects Tua to provide a floor for Falcons pass catchers even if not a Pro Bowl-caliber season.

Zachariason notes that Tua Tagovailoa has been going later in drafts and considers him a fine pick at his current ADP.

Zachariason notes that Woody Marks was previously thought to handle pass-catching work in the Texans backfield, but recent reports suggest David Montgomery may split reps. Zachariason cautions against taking beat reporter speculation too seriously given conflicting reports from a month prior. He does not view Marks as particularly special either.

JJ Zachariason wants to maintain Zay Flowers' high target share and is concerned that Stefan Diggs signing with Baltimore would reduce volume for Flowers, indicating Zachariason views Flowers as a key target-dependent asset in the Ravens offense.