1111: Market Score's Most Interesting Projections
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
26 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 21, 2026
Published
Tue, July 21, 2026
15
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Brian Thomas Jr.Cam NewtonCeeDee LambGeorge PickensJayden DanielsJosh AllenKyler MurrayLamar JacksonMike EvansNick FolesParker WashingtonRJ HarveyRobert Griffin IIISaquon Barkley
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Thomas Jr.
NegativeProjection11:46
Market score comp projections place Brian Thomas at WR20 based on top 10 comps; profile is volatile with five comps above 15 PPR PPG but four below 11 PPR PPG. George Pickens 2025 is among his highest comps. Zachariason notes Thomas is being boosted by higher-end outcomes but remains neutral to above market on him given Jacksonville's offensive upside, though he prefers Parker Washington as a value play.
Insight pageCam Newton
NegativeUsage24:20
Cam Newton is cited as one of six rookie quarterbacks since 2011 to average at least five rushing points per game across eight-plus games played, a metric used to contextualize Jackson Dart's 7.3 rushing PPG last year.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
NegativeProjection31:45
Market score comp projections place CeeDee Lamb slightly behind George Pickens (difference ~0.7 PPR PPG) despite higher ADP; regular market scores are 72 for Lamb (WR6) vs 65 for Pickens (WR13). Lamb's comps include 2023 Stefan Diggs (16.1 PPR PPG), 2022 Diggs (19.6 PPR PPG), and year-six Tyreek Hill (18.5 PPR PPG), but also year-10 Jordy Nelson (9.2 PPR PPG, third-highest comp). Lamb has worse floor comps than Pickens; three comps lower than Pickens' worst (Des Bryant 12.1 PPR PPG). Zachariason prefers Pickens at his price due to opportunity cost and scarier floor for Lamb, but not fading either in Dallas.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveValue31:45
Market score comp projections rank George Pickens ahead of CeeDee Lamb by ~0.7 PPR PPG despite lower ADP; regular market scores are 65 for Pickens (WR13) vs 72 for Lamb (WR6). Pickens' worst floor comp is Des Bryant season (12.1 PPR PPG), significantly better than Lamb's floor. Zachariason prefers Pickens at his price due to opportunity cost and better floor profile, though he has Lamb ranked ahead overall. Not fading either player in Dallas environment.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeUsage24:20
Jaden Daniels is cited as one of six rookie quarterbacks since 2011 to average at least five rushing points per game across eight-plus games played, a metric used to contextualize Jackson Dart's 7.3 rushing PPG last year.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeProjection22:20
Market Score ranks Josh Allen as QB two in its projections, with comps that are good but barely better than Jackson Dart's top-10 comp list. JJ Zachariason notes Allen's year three is one of Dart's top comps driving Dart's overall projection.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection23:25
Kyler Murray's year two is cited as one of Jackson Dart's top-10 comps driving his overall 22+ PPG projection.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeProjection23:25
Lamar Jackson's 2019 MVP season is cited as Jackson Dart's top comp match with 79.7% similarity, representing a season where he 'literally broke fantasy football.' This comp is used to support Dart's bullish 22+ PPG projection.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeProjection25:44
Market score comp projections place Mike Evans at WR41, significantly lower than Zachariason's own ranking. Top comps include Allen Robinson 2022 (Rams, frightening), Vincent Jackson 2015 (11th year, 10.7 PPR PPG), Michael Crabtree year 10 (under 9 PPR PPG), Christian Kirk year 7 (under 9 PPR PPG), Wes Welker year 11 (under 9 PPR PPG); only one comp above 13 PPR PPG (Will Fuller 2020, 13+ PPR PPG). Zachariason likes San Francisco fit and touchdown upside in Shanahan system but acknowledges model concerns: teammate competition, age, and yards per out run metrics. Notes Evans still had third-best targets per out run rate of career last year despite lower yards per out run.
Insight pageNick Foles
NegativeProjection23:43
Nick Foles' third year in the league is cited as the only bad outcome on Jackson Dart's top-10 comp list. JJ Zachariason notes that Foles' poor comp outcome followed an 8.5% touchdown rate during a period when the fantasy football market didn't understand regression.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue11:46
Market score comp projections place Parker Washington at WR39 due to lower ADP; only five of his top 10 comps score double-digit PPR points per game. However, Zachariason likes Washington as a value in managed season-long leagues given his very low ADP on platforms like Yahoo, and he's willing to see if his strong efficiency from last year translates. Zachariason prefers Washington to Thomas at current prices and thinks the two should be back-to-back in rankings.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeProjection21:52
Market score comp projections place RJ Harvey at RB15, surprising given Zachariason's January 'clear sell' call. Harvey's ADP has dropped significantly post-Dobbins re-signing and Coleman draft (now past pick 100 on ESPN, near 100 on Yahoo). Zachariason now sees market overcorrection; Harvey had strong weighted opportunity last season, and comps include David Montgomery year two and Todd Gurley rookie season (both 16+ PPR PPG). Only two of top 10 comps below 10 PPR PPG. Zachariason bullish on ceiling at current price given good offensive environment and ambiguous backfield upside.
Insight pageRobert Griffin III
NegativeUsage24:20
Robert Griffin III is cited as one of six rookie quarterbacks since 2011 to average at least five rushing points per game across eight-plus games played, a metric used to contextualize Jackson Dart's 7.3 rushing PPG last year.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeProjection8:35
Market score comp projections place Barkley at RB13, worse than his regular market score ranking of RB10. Top comp is DeMarco Murray's 2017 (split backfield with Derrick Henry, 19.1 PPR PPG), but only one comp in top 10 scores above 18 PPR PPG. Zachariason notes market score focuses heavily on receiving metrics; Barkley's low yards per out run last season and limited receiving volume in Philly are red flags. Zachariason is neutral on Barkley overall but acknowledges market score is slightly low on him.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection0:41
Market score comp projections yield a weighted average of 15.4 PPR points per game based on top 10 historical comparables; top comp is Jackson Smith-Jigba's 2025 season (21.6 PPR PPG), with Cooper Cupp 2020 also in the mix (14 PPR PPG). JJ Zachariason cites this as a reason he likes Flowers this year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:20weekend, it's a great time of year. And it's a time of year where I start flipping some of my content on
0:28this podcast to be a little bit more player-specific.
0:31Over the next handful of weeks, you're going to hear about schedule analysis, players to target, players to avoid, bold predictions, all
0:39of those admittedly pretty generic fantasy football topics. In today's topic, it's another player-specific one, and it's one that I'm going to
0:46throw into this rotation every year, now that we've established market score as a new late-round fantasy football metric.
0:53For those of you who are just joining and haven't been totally caught up, first off, welcome.
0:59But second, market score is a metric that we developed at Late Round Fantasy this offseason that assigns a score to a
1:06player based on his ADP alongside previous season inputs.
1:09In essence, it's like the ZAP model, except instead of draft capital, we're looking at ADP.
1:15ADP, of course, can be predictive, but we wanted to create a metric that utilized that market value alongside other metrics to
1:22be even more predictive than ADP itself. And that's what market score is.
1:27It's more predictive than ADP. If you were to simply draft off of the market score sheet, you'd have a better time than if you drafted via ADP.
1:36Now, the draft guide has those values, and we're working on getting them on the late-round.com website too.
1:43You can learn more about market score on episode 1105.
1:46To be clear, I don't blindly agree with everything market score says.
1:50To me, it's simply another tool to use when you're evaluating players, similar to any other metric.
1:56I take market score into consideration, and it makes me think twice about some players.
2:01It's not my sole evaluation process. That, to me, would be bad process.
2:06But it's really helpful. And one way that it can be really helpful, aside from the raw score that it produces, is through comps.
2:14We've talked about this before, but I can find the closest historical comparables for players in the current season via market score.
2:21I look at their market score, their ADP, and their career year to get a list of players, all ranked by similarity.
2:29So the most similar player gets ranked up top.
2:32I can then see how that player performed in their season to give us an idea of how the player we're analyzing might perform this year.
2:41So just for example, Zay Flowers this year. One of his top comps is Jackson Smith and Jigba's 2025 season.
2:48Pretty awesome. That's a great comp, obviously, for Zay Flowers.
2:51Now, I've shared some of this with you already, and there are more insights from it in the draft guide, which you can order right now on Lateround.com.
3:01It's updated weekly for you. But I took all of this one step further.
3:06I looked at all of the running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks who currently have market scores.
3:12For running backs and wideouts, it means that their top 120 picks are picked in the top 10 rounds of a 12-team league.
3:20For tight ends and quarterbacks, we're looking at the top 180.
3:24From there, I found the top 10 comps for each player.
3:28And from there, I found the average points per game from those 10 players, how those comps actually performed, and I weighed
3:35those point-per-game outputs by how similar that player scored to the one that we're analyzing.
3:41Now, since this entire episode is based on this concept, let me run through an example.
3:46Let's go back to Zay Flowers. You get JSN 2025 as a comp forum, where JSN scored 21.6 PPR points per game, and that's in relevant games.
3:55I took out the final week of the season, and I'll be doing that for everyone on today's show.
4:02But you also get a high similarity score for Cooper Cupps 2020, where Cupp was at about 14 PPR points per game.
4:10When you look at Flowers' top 10 comps, you get a weighted average of about 15.4 PPR points per game, which is really, really good.
4:18And it's one of the reasons that I like Zay Flowers this year.
4:23Now, to be clear, this is not what market score is.
4:26Market score is just one of the inputs to get those comps.
4:31Market score grades a player from 0 to 100.
4:34But this is giving us a weighted point per game average based on historical comps.
4:39It's like a next level look at what market score can do.
4:43And for what it's worth, I look back at the last two years of comps, and technically, these projections, they correlate stronger
4:50to actual performance than ADPs done, which is pretty cool.
4:54So like I said, I did this for every player this year.
4:58And my goal today is to share with you from 10 to 1, the 10 most interesting market score projections based on these comps.
5:06And give you a little insight about where I'm at with those players.
5:11So with all that out of the way, let's do it.
5:15I'm in on the Eagles offense rebounding this year with Kevin Petullo out of the picture.
5:20Because I generally don't think it could have been much worse schematically last year for that team.
5:26Now with that being said, market score is looking at previous season inputs.
5:30So it's not that big of a surprise that it doesn't love Saquon Barkley this year.
5:36Market score focuses pretty heavily on receiving metrics at running back.
5:40And Barkley hasn't had the most robust volume profile as a receiver in Philly.
5:44And last year, since market score takes previous season metrics, his low yards per out run was a red flag entering this year.
5:52So in the end, Barkley's market score leaves him at like RB10.
5:57But then his market score comp projections equate to RB13.
6:00So even worse. His number two comp is Marshawn Lynch in year eight, where he scored 19.1 PPR points per game.
6:07That's great. But his top comp is DeMarco Murray's 2017, where Murray split a backfield with Derrick Henry.
6:13Now obviously, we're not looking at a situation quite like that.
6:17So I wouldn't get too worked up about those specifics.
6:21That's not what these comps are looking at. Remember, it's ADP, market score, and career year.
6:26But it is a little scary that Saquon has just one comp in his top 10 above 18 PPR points per game.
6:34That's a heck of a season, don't get me wrong.
6:37But it's also the type of ceiling outcome that we want from a 1-2 turn pick.
6:43Now I'm not out or in on Saquon this year personally.
6:46I think he's part of that giant cluster of running backs in that late round one, early round two range.
6:53But market score is slightly low on him, and the comp projections, they show that too.
6:59At number nine, I'm going to go to the Jacksonville wide receiver room, and I'm looking at Brian Thomas and Parker Washington.
7:06Something to keep in mind with market score is that it's largely a median type projection.
7:12It's not giving you multiple outputs for floor and ceiling.
7:15It's just giving you a general projected score, which is not a lot different than a general projected point per game output.
7:23So with Jacksonville in that wide receiver room, and this is the same argument I'd make for like Chicago too, I'm probably
7:30going to be higher on some of the players in those rooms than market score is.
7:36Because I want to embrace that ambiguity, even if the most likely outcome is that no one truly, truly emerges.
7:43It's just that someone has a chance to, and it's in a good offense, and if that happens, you're getting a huge discount on that player.
7:52Now I say all that because market score is not super high on Jacksonville wide receivers.
7:57Market score looks at market factors, and there's competition in Jacksonville based on where these guys are getting drafted.
8:04It likes Brian Thomas more than Parker Washington, but that's also driven by our ADP source, which is Fantasy Data's ADP.
8:11There's an 18 pick gap between Thomas and Washington.
8:14You won't see that in the best ball streets.
8:17But that's also why I think Washington is a good target in managed season long leagues this year, because his ADP on
8:25some platforms like Yahoo, it's really low. I'm willing to see if his crazy good efficiency last year translates into this season.
8:32You can read more about that in the draft guide.
8:36Regardless though, when you look at the market score comp projections, Brian Thomas' top 10 comps bring him to wide receiver 20.
8:43Parker Washington brings him to wide receiver 39. Thomas is being boosted by some higher end outcomes.
8:49I don't think this is a shock to anyone, given we know his profile is volatile.
8:55But he's got George Pickens 2025, for example, as one of his highest.
8:59Five of Thomas' top 10 comps are above 15 PPR points per game, but then four of them are below 11 PPR points per game.
9:08Parker Washington's are based on a lower ADP, so actually, based on where these guys are drafted ADP-wise, their projections don't look terrible.
9:16But at Washington's current ADP, he only has five double-digit PPR point per game comps out of his 10.
9:22Hence the reason he's close to wide receiver 40.
9:25I think these two should be back-to-back in rankings.
9:29But given their prices in managed season-long leagues, I like Washington a lot more as a value.
9:34That doesn't mean that I'm off of Thomas. And these comps are going to keep me more neutral, maybe even above market with Thomas.
9:43It's an offense that I do want pieces of.
9:46Tyler Shuck came out as the QB9 with market score comp projections.
9:50I'm pretty surprised and I'm excited about it. I've found that second-year quarterbacks are generally really good bets against ADP.
9:57They have substantial downside risk, but they have more upside versus their cost than any other career year among fantasy quarterbacks.
10:04And generally speaking, with quarterback, we're looking for that ceiling.
10:07Now, market score does not have Shuck at QB9.
10:11It actually has him at QB15, which is still higher than most platforms are going to have him.
10:17My rankings are bullish on him too. Because not only is he a second-year player, but he's coming off a year where
10:24he finished strong with almost 20 points per game over his final six.
10:29And he proved that he could bring a little bit extra with his legs.
10:34Add in Kellen Moore's high-volume offense, Jordan Tyson being added there, the offensive line looking pretty good.
10:39Shuck is in a good spot to at least have the opportunity to make that leap this year.
10:46The reason he ranks so high in market score comp projections is because he drew a year two comp of Carson Wentz back in 2017.
10:54He scored almost 22 points per game. And lower down the list at number nine, he got Patrick Mahomes' insane 2018 season.
11:02Now, I don't think the latter is going to happen for Shuck, but there are enough upside comps here to make me nod in agreement with market score.
11:11He's a great late round option this season. Now, on this countdown from 10 to 1, my number seven most interesting takeaway
11:19from these market score comp projections is Quinchot Judkins being the RB32.
11:23Now, in regular market score, the thing that we've tested, we know correlates a lot better than ADP, Judkins comes in an RB22, significantly lower, significantly better.
11:32The biggest thing for Judkins this year, in my opinion, is his situation.
11:37The Browns' offensive line was horrible last season. Judkins ranked last among high-volume running backs and yards before contact per attempt.
11:44Now, we have a huge question mark at quarterback, though I am more bullish than most on Todd Munkin as head coach.
11:52I think he's a pretty good offensive coach. Another issue for Judkins, though, is the pass catching.
11:58He wasn't a huge pass catcher in college, and he ran a route on just 30% of Cleveland's dropbacks last season.
12:05Todd Munkin has historically split that kind of work in his backfield, so I'm expecting Dylan Sampson to play more of a pass catching role for Cleveland.
12:14And that's what market score is kind of seeing here.
12:18His ranking within market score is fine, but the comps are legitimately scary.
12:22His top one is Devin Singletary's second year, where his ADP was about seven spots higher than where Judkins is currently at,
12:30but he scored 9.4 PPR points per game. But among the top 10 comps, we've got six with fewer than 10 PPR points per game.
12:38Only one was over 14. Now, I've been a little bit lower the consensus with Judkins because I'm worried about the pass
12:46catching and I'm worried about the situation. I didn't even mention the injury either.
12:51But in the end, Judkins isn't far enough off in my rankings to call him a player to avoid, even if I'm lower than the market.
13:00I think the talent profile is there too, which makes it harder to fade a player like this.
13:06But there's no doubt that these comps are scary.
13:09We go from one year two back to another.
13:12Let's take a second and talk about RJ Harvey.
13:15His market score projections put him at RB15, which is exactly why he made it on today's list, because that's very surprising.
13:23For anyone who's listened to the show this offseason, you know I started the offseason back in January by calling Harvey a clear sell, a very clear sell.
13:32He wasn't a good rusher last year and it seemed very clear that Denver was going to do something to that backfield.
13:40That something ended up being re-signing J.K. Dobbins and then drafting a solid running back in Jonah Coleman.
13:46But I'm now of the belief, at least from a season-long perspective, that there's some market overcorrection here.
13:52I've seen people say that Harvey's a terrible draft pick this season.
13:56And it's pretty much for the same reasons that I talked about back in January.
14:01Bad rushing yards overexpected per attempt, Dobbins outperformed him on the ground, and there wasn't enough consistency.
14:07But he's not priced in like round five anymore.
14:10Over on ESPN, Harvey's going past pick 100 after J.K.
14:14Dobbins. He's back-to-back with Dobbins on CBS. He's close to 100 over on Yahoo.
14:19And I get it. The argument is that he's worse than Dobbins.
14:23But we're also basing that off of rookie season production.
14:26And when I get into round eight, round nine, and so on, I'm looking purely at ceiling.
14:32If it doesn't work out, it's not going to kill my team.
14:36That's why Harvey's all of a sudden become intriguing.
14:39He had a really good weighted opportunity last season, and his top 10 market score comps bring him to RB15, like I said.
14:47Though to be clear, after RB14, there's a very big gap to RJ Harvey.
14:52I do want to be clear about that. Harvey, though, gets a couple of really strong 16-plus PPR point per game comps
15:00in David Montgomery's year two and Todd Gurley's rookie season.
15:03Only two of his top 10 comps are below 10 PPR points per game.
15:08I've bought more into Harvey this season, even if the consensus hasn't.
15:12I don't want to be so concerned about the downside case when we're now so late in drafts.
15:18Especially when we know the offensive environment's really good, and we know that ambiguous backfields, they have a chance to bring out really great values.
15:27The fact that his market score comp projections look the way they do, and for the record, market score has Harvey as
15:34a very firm RB3 this year too. The fact that market score in general likes Harvey has made me look at the situation a whole lot differently.
15:44And hopefully you will too. Market score hates Mike Evans, like way more than I do.
15:49When you look at his top 10 comps, Mike Evans comes out as wide receiver 41.
15:55Now I do like the fit with San Francisco.
15:58I think there's a lot of touchdown upside in the Shanahan system.
16:02He's not a fade for me. But I've mentioned this before.
16:06One of Evans' top comps is Allen Robinson's 2022 when he went to the Rams.
16:11Frightening. He also gets Vincent Jackson, rest in peace, in 2015, an 11th year player who had an ADP 70th overall, who scored 10.7 PPR points per game.
16:20There's year 10 Michael Crabtree under 9 PPR points per game, year 7 Christian Kirk, year 11 Wes Welker.
16:27They were both under the 9 mark. There's only one player in Evans' comp list who scored more than 13 PPR points per game.
16:35That was Will Fuller in 2020. He crushed that year, but it's still a frightening situation overall for Evans when we're looking through this lens.
16:44Like I said, I don't have Evans this low, but it's pretty interesting to see how market score is treating Evans this year.
16:52And it's a combination of a lot of things as to why.
16:56Teammate competition, his age, and some of his numbers just weren't fantastic last year, like his yards per out run.
17:03Now I still think that the circumstances surrounding Mike Evans last year, and Baker Mayfield in particular, that led to that lower yards per out run rate.
17:12Because Evans still did a really good job at commanding targets.
17:16He actually had his third best targets per out run rate of his career last year.
17:21But I can see why a model would objectively view Evans as being in a bad spot this year.
17:28It's kind of crazy that Aranda Gadsden's coming off a rookie season where he had 49 catches, 664 yards, and three touchdowns.
17:36And yet, he's almost an afterthought in fantasy football.
17:39He ranks 15th in NFL history in receiving yards by a rookie tight end.
17:43Now the obvious reason is that they changed offensive coordinators in LA, they signed David Njoku, they signed Charlie Kolar, they have
17:51wide receivers, they have other players in that offense who can catch passes.
17:55But to be fair, even with that, market score in general views Gadsden as the tight end 14 overall.
18:02And look, we know there's variance with tight end, but this is still very shocking to me.
18:08Gadsden's top 10 comps led to a tight end 4 in market score comp projection.
18:13There's a very low outcome with one of Gadsden's top 3 comps, which was Ladarius Green in 2014.
18:19Ironically, that was for the same Chargers team, but back then they were in San Diego.
18:25But his top comp is 2018 George Kittle, Kittle's second year in the league.
18:30Kittle went 9 spots later than Gadsden, but their market scores were pretty close.
18:34And Kittle scored over 15 PPR points per game that year.
18:38This isn't very easy to find at tight end, but 6 of Gadsden's top 10 comps scored over 10 PPR points per game.
18:46I guarantee you that we're going to read beat reports this summer about the other tight ends for the Chargers.
18:53The other pass catchers. But I don't think that we should lose sight of Gadsden.
18:58His rookie season was impressive. And if we're throwing darts, why not throw one his way in a managed league?
19:05Maybe I should be a little bit higher on him than I currently am.
19:10Despite CeeDee Lamb having the higher ADP, so his comps are naturally going to include some players who are really good.
19:17Despite that fact, George Pickens ranks ahead of CeeDee Lamb in market score comp projection.
19:22Now, the difference is only about like 0.7 PPR points per game, but still, there's a decent sized gap between the two players in ADP.
19:31I do have Lamb ranked ahead of Pickens, don't get me wrong, but I can kind of see where market score is coming from here.
19:39In terms of their raw market scores, we're looking at a 72 for Lamb and a 65 for Pickens.
19:46It's not like that significant of a difference. Lamb is the wide receiver 6, Pickens is the wide receiver 13, not that far from ADP.
19:55But I think the small gap between these scores, that's what's more telling.
19:59And that's why we could see the type of result that we're seeing with market score comp projections.
20:05Lamb's being dragged down a little bit by year 10 Jordy Nelson, who scored just 9.2 PPR points per game.
20:12That's his third highest comp. That was a year where Nelson was competing with both Devontae Adams and Randall Cobb.
20:19At least Lamb only has Pickens to really worry about.
20:22Lamb actually has an extremely close comp of 2023 Stefan Diggs and then his second comp is 2022 Diggs.
20:29Both of those were good seasons, 16.1 and 19.6 PPR points per game.
20:33And then Lamb gets a year six Tyreek Hill as his fourth comp where he scored 18.5 PPR points per game.
20:41There are some really, really good ceiling outcomes for CeeDee Lamb.
20:44It's just oddly, he has worse floor comps than George Pickens.
20:48Pickens' worst floor comp is a Des Bryant season where Des scored 12.1 PPR points per game.
20:54Lamb had three comps lower than that mark. And I think from a value perspective in your draft, that's kind of how I'm viewing these two players.
21:03All because of opportunity costs, I like Pickens more at his price.
21:08There's a scarier floor given the cost for CeeDee Lamb.
21:11But in that Dallas environment, I'm not fading either player.
21:14You guys know I'm Nemeca Ibuka guy and I'm higher on him versus some of the non-best ball platforms.
21:21ESPN has met wide receiver 19. Yahoo has met wide receiver 23.
21:25I have met wide receiver 16. Market scorer sees met wide receiver 15.
21:30His market score player comp projection, wide receiver 5.
21:33For real. Ibuka's worst comp out of his top 10 is DJ Chark's year 3 where he scored 12 PPR points per game.
21:41He also gets Amari Cooper's 2015 where he was at 13.9.
21:44Every other player in his comp list scored at least 15 PPR points per game.
21:49You get Juju Smith-Schuster in 2018, 18.8. DK Metcalf in 2020, 17.8.
21:54AJ Brown in 2020, 16.2. He got a Chris Godwin year 3 one when Godwin dominated.
21:59I mean, it's just one amazing comp after one amazing comp.
22:03Ibuka's 2025 peripherals took a hit after a really hot start.
22:07But there are reasons for it. His injury, Baker's injury, an awful catchable targets rate.
22:12Now Mike Evans is gone and he has a chance to be the alpha.
22:17Market scorer likes Ibuka's chances of producing a big season.
22:20This is the final part of today's show and you might be wondering, how is anything more interesting than a Mecca Ibuka at wide receiver five?
22:29Well, when Jackson Dart comes out as the QB one, that's how.
22:33Market scorer does not have Dart as the QB one, so you can breathe.
22:38That's not what I'm saying here. Though market scorer does love Jackson Dart.
22:42What I am saying here is that his top 10 comps are absolutely insane.
22:47Better than what Josh Allen is seeing, who's the QB two, albeit barely.
22:52One of the problems with Dart though is that he's kind of a rarity.
22:57No player on his comp list has a similarity above 80%.
23:00So while his comps are really good, they're also not unbelievably close matches.
23:05But I've said this before, his top match has a 79.7 similarity.
23:09It's Lamar Jackson's 2019, his first MVP season where he literally broke fantasy football.
23:14You have that, Josh Allen's year three, and Kyler Murray's year two all driving up his overall projection, which is a little over 22 points per game.
23:23There's really only one bad outcome on this list, which is Nick Foles' third year in the league.
23:29But that also came after a touchdown rate of 8.5% during a time when the fantasy football market didn't quite understand regression.
23:37Now there are reasons to not be so bullish on Dart.
23:41Change in coaching staff means ambiguity. Maybe we see less rushing.
23:44And it's not like we saw a super clear picture of the type of quarterback he's going to be long-term.
23:51Malik Nabors is banged up too, though he did do a lot of work last year without Nabors.
23:58But look, if you have an opportunity to get Dart as your QB1 at a price where the opportunity cost just is
24:05not significant, round 8, round 9, round 10, I do think that we should be leaning into this upside.
24:12Consider this. We've had six rookie quarterbacks since 2011 average at least five rushing points per game across at least eight games played.
24:20Those six quarterbacks are Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels, Robert Griffin III, Lamar Jackson, and Jackson Dart.
24:26And for what it's worth, Dart was at 7.3 points per game via rushing last year.
24:31This isn't some random parameter to make Dart look extra special.
24:35There's at least some chance that Dart is just really good for fantasy football purposes, like the same way that Jalen Hurts is.
24:43Market score believes in the ceiling and at the right price, I think the rest of us should too.
24:49That's it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
24:54If you have subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
25:03And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
25:08Thanks for listening, everyone. Greatly appreciate it. I'll be back in your ears on Wednesday on the YouTube channel for the Late Round Fantasy Football Show.
25:17And obviously this week, you got another Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
25:21And at the end of the week, you get Late Round Perspectives.
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